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000
FXUS61 KBTV 180223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/SKY DATA TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE
OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE SLIDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE
WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A
LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BTV/HRRR OUTPUT
SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES APPEAR TO BE SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL OUT
OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT AT A SPRINKLE WOULD
BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS OTHERWISE DRY WX
EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/SKY DATA TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE
OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE SLIDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE
WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A
LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BTV/HRRR OUTPUT
SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES APPEAR TO BE SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL OUT
OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT AT A SPRINKLE WOULD
BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS OTHERWISE DRY WX
EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/SKY DATA TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE
OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE SLIDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE
WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A
LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BTV/HRRR OUTPUT
SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES APPEAR TO BE SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL OUT
OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT AT A SPRINKLE WOULD
BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS OTHERWISE DRY WX
EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 172350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT LINE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME
FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BTV/HRRR OUTPUT SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES
APPEAR TO BE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS
REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL OUT OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT
AT A SPRINKLE WOULD BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS
OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT LINE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME
FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BTV/HRRR OUTPUT SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES
APPEAR TO BE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS
REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL OUT OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT
AT A SPRINKLE WOULD BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS
OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 172350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT LINE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME
FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BTV/HRRR OUTPUT SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES
APPEAR TO BE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS
REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL OUT OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT
AT A SPRINKLE WOULD BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS
OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT LINE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME
FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BTV/HRRR OUTPUT SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES
APPEAR TO BE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS
REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL OUT OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT
AT A SPRINKLE WOULD BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS
OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 172342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 172342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 172342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172027
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172027
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 172027
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172027
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 171936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 171936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 171709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 171709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171641
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171641
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 171641
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND TO LOWER THE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
INTO CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY
TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO
WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 171430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND TO LOWER THE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
INTO CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY
TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO
WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 171135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171101
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171101
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 171101
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171101
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 170814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO
THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY
TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO
WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO
THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY
TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO
WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 170814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO
THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY
TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO
WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO
THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY
TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO
WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 170742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 170533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 170454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1254 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1254 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 170158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
958 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. RAIN
SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE WATERTOWN NY REGION AS OF 10 PM AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 722 PM THURSDAY...
A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ANY CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING REMAINS BACK NEAR
BUFFALO...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS 03Z- 06Z AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT 06Z-09Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND EXITING BY
15Z FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO
WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL THOUGH QPF WILL
BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 170158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
958 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. RAIN
SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE WATERTOWN NY REGION AS OF 10 PM AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 722 PM THURSDAY...
A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ANY CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING REMAINS BACK NEAR
BUFFALO...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS 03Z- 06Z AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT 06Z-09Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND EXITING BY
15Z FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO
WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL THOUGH QPF WILL
BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
958 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. RAIN
SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE WATERTOWN NY REGION AS OF 10 PM AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 722 PM THURSDAY...
A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ANY CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING REMAINS BACK NEAR
BUFFALO...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS 03Z- 06Z AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT 06Z-09Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND EXITING BY
15Z FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO
WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL THOUGH QPF WILL
BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 162329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANY CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING REMAINS
BACK NEAR BUFFALO...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS 03Z-06Z AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND VERMONT 06Z-09Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND
EXITING BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL
THOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 162329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANY CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING REMAINS
BACK NEAR BUFFALO...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS 03Z-06Z AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND VERMONT 06Z-09Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND
EXITING BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL
THOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 162329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANY CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING REMAINS
BACK NEAR BUFFALO...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS 03Z-06Z AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND VERMONT 06Z-09Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND
EXITING BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL
THOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 162306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 161930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 161930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 161930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161912
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 161912
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 161754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 161754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161359
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161359
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161359
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 161359
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 161125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
+10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
+10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 161125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
+10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
+10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO, MAINLY AT KBTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 161059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
+10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO, MAINLY AT KBTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 160801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER
AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB
TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO, MAINLY AT KBTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 160801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER
AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB
TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO, MAINLY AT KBTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 160759
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 101 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS OF
MIDNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...GENERAL FORECAST FOR LOWS IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO, MAINLY AT KBTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 160759
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 101 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS OF
MIDNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...GENERAL FORECAST FOR LOWS IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO, MAINLY AT KBTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 160527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 101 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS OF
MIDNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...GENERAL FORECAST FOR LOWS IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO, MAINLY AT KBTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 160527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 101 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS OF
MIDNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...GENERAL FORECAST FOR LOWS IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO, MAINLY AT KBTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 160505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 101 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS OF
MIDNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...GENERAL FORECAST FOR LOWS IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW...WITH SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP
AT BTV DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH MID- LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT
IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 160505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 101 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS OF
MIDNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...GENERAL FORECAST FOR LOWS IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW...WITH SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP
AT BTV DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH MID- LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT
IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 160505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 101 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS OF
MIDNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...GENERAL FORECAST FOR LOWS IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW...WITH SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP
AT BTV DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH MID- LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT
IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 160505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 101 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS OF
MIDNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...GENERAL FORECAST FOR LOWS IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW...WITH SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP
AT BTV DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH MID- LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT
IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 160204
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
HIGHLY VARIABLE AS OF 10 PM WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE UPPER 40S...DEPENDENT ON DECOUPLING. HOWEVER GENERAL
FORECAST FOR LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 615 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE RED FLAG
WARNING AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS ABATE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER
HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ASIDE FROM A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW...WITH SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP
AT BTV DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH MID- LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT
IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 160204
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
HIGHLY VARIABLE AS OF 10 PM WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE UPPER 40S...DEPENDENT ON DECOUPLING. HOWEVER GENERAL
FORECAST FOR LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 615 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE RED FLAG
WARNING AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS ABATE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER
HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ASIDE FROM A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW...WITH SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP
AT BTV DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH MID- LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT
IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 152307
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE RED FLAG
WARNING AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS ABATE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER
HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ASIDE FROM A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM WEDNESDAY...
OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING
WEAKER WINDS WITH IT AS THE CENTER MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY WEATHER
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH TO DISCUSS AS THE RH`S WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MINIMAL. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS OVER
IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN THE VALLEYS EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW...WITH SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP
AT BTV DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH MID- LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT
IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 152306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE RED FLAG
WARNING AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS ABATE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER
HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ASIDE FROM A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM WEDNESDAY...
OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING
WEAKER WINDS WITH IT AS THE CENTER MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY WEATHER
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH TO DISCUSS AS THE RH`S WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MINIMAL. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS OVER
IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN THE VALLEYS EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW...WITH SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP
AT BTV DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY..GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH MID- LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT
IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 152306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE RED FLAG
WARNING AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS ABATE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER
HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ASIDE FROM A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM WEDNESDAY...
OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING
WEAKER WINDS WITH IT AS THE CENTER MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY WEATHER
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH TO DISCUSS AS THE RH`S WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MINIMAL. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS OVER
IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN THE VALLEYS EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW...WITH SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP
AT BTV DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY..GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH MID- LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT
IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 152219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE RED FLAG
WARNING AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS ABATE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER
HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ASIDE FROM A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM WEDNESDAY...
OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING
WEAKER WINDS WITH IT AS THE CENTER MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY WEATHER
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH TO DISCUSS AS THE RH`S WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MINIMAL. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS OVER
IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN THE VALLEYS EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY (VFR)
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNSET...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 03Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

03Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY..GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODERATELY STRONG
P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 152219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE RED FLAG
WARNING AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS ABATE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER
HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ASIDE FROM A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM WEDNESDAY...
OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING
WEAKER WINDS WITH IT AS THE CENTER MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY WEATHER
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH TO DISCUSS AS THE RH`S WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MINIMAL. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS OVER
IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN THE VALLEYS EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY (VFR)
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNSET...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 03Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

03Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY..GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODERATELY STRONG
P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 151943
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING WEAKER WINDS WITH IT AS THE CENTER
MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY WEATHER AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH TO DISCUSS AS
THE RH`S WILL SLOWLY REBOUND SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MINIMAL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SEE TEMPS PLUMMET
INTO THE MID TEENS OVER IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN THE VALLEYS
EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY (VFR)
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNSET...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 03Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

03Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY..GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODERATELY STRONG
P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT 6PM AS THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RH`S
AND GUSTY MODERATE WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT START TO GROW
AND SPREAD QUICKLY OVER THE FINE DEAD FUELS.

LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (20-30 PERCENT) ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND WEAKER ONLY IN
THE 5-15MPH RANGE AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. THUS NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WITH ONLY
THE FINE FUELS DRY ENOUGH FOR BURNING THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-
     005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BTV
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 151943
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING WEAKER WINDS WITH IT AS THE CENTER
MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY WEATHER AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH TO DISCUSS AS
THE RH`S WILL SLOWLY REBOUND SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MINIMAL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SEE TEMPS PLUMMET
INTO THE MID TEENS OVER IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN THE VALLEYS
EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. RH`S WILL STILL BE LOW, 20-30%, TOMORROW WITH THE DRY
AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS
TO STAY BELOW ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THUS NO FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BRING A QUICK 0.10-0.25" OF
QPF TO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IF ANY SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND LATE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS I COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BASED ON WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING
OF THE SKIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WILL SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THURSDAY AFTER BEING IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THEN ON FRIDAY EVENING
DURING THE SHORTWAVE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY (VFR)
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNSET...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 03Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

03Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY..GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODERATELY STRONG
P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT 6PM AS THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RH`S
AND GUSTY MODERATE WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT START TO GROW
AND SPREAD QUICKLY OVER THE FINE DEAD FUELS.

LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (20-30 PERCENT) ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND WEAKER ONLY IN
THE 5-15MPH RANGE AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS
TODAY. THUS NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WITH ONLY
THE FINE FUELS DRY ENOUGH FOR BURNING THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-
     005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BTV
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 151922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 121 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES TO BE
IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 6PM FOR VERMONT WEST OF THE GREENS AND
WINDSOR COUNTY. AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AS SOME OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE IS
MIXING UP. EXPECT THAT TO ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND RH`S ACROSS THE
AREA TO CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 10-20KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN
PRETTY GUSTY UP TO 30KTS AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. THE REST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND SO NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME INCONSISTENCIES
EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE DETAILS...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TO A SWLY FLOW REGIME AS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IN
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING AND QPF. PREFER DRIER...LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLN IN THESE
REGIMES...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS (40% OR SO) ACROSS FAR NERN VT...AND
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR
50S IN FAR NERN VT WITH EXPECTATION FOR SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDINESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN ADVANCE OF PHASING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH...LOOKS LIKE CONSIDERABLY
SUBSIDENCE AND PLEASANT/SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED/EVOLUTION OF PHASED MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH MVG OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT
APPEARS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEED 1" PER 12Z
GFS...SO MAY SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT STRONG SSELY GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS MONDAY. LOCALLY
25-35KTS ALONG THE GREEN MTNS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST P-GRADIENT
AND 925-850MB...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY (VFR)
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNSET...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 03Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

03Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY..GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODERATELY STRONG
P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-
     005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 151741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 121 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES TO BE
IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 6PM FOR VERMONT WEST OF THE GREENS AND
WINDSOR COUNTY. AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AS SOME OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE IS
MIXING UP. EXPECT THAT TO ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND RH`S ACROSS THE
AREA TO CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 10-20KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN
PRETTY GUSTY UP TO 30KTS AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. THE REST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND SO NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY (VFR)
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNSET...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 03Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

03Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY..GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODERATELY STRONG
P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-
     005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...BANACOS
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 151741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 121 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES TO BE
IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 6PM FOR VERMONT WEST OF THE GREENS AND
WINDSOR COUNTY. AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AS SOME OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE IS
MIXING UP. EXPECT THAT TO ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND RH`S ACROSS THE
AREA TO CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 10-20KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN
PRETTY GUSTY UP TO 30KTS AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. THE REST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND SO NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY (VFR)
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNSET...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 03Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

03Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY..GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODERATELY STRONG
P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-
     005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...BANACOS
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 151741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 121 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES TO BE
IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 6PM FOR VERMONT WEST OF THE GREENS AND
WINDSOR COUNTY. AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AS SOME OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE IS
MIXING UP. EXPECT THAT TO ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND RH`S ACROSS THE
AREA TO CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 10-20KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN
PRETTY GUSTY UP TO 30KTS AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. THE REST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND SO NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY (VFR)
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNSET...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 03Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

03Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY..GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODERATELY STRONG
P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-
     005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...BANACOS
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 151723
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 121 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES TO BE
IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 6PM FOR VERMONT WEST OF THE GREENS AND
WINDSOR COUNTY. AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AS SOME OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE IS
MIXING UP. EXPECT THAT TO ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND RH`S ACROSS THE
AREA TO CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 10-20KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN
PRETTY GUSTY UP TO 30KTS AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. THE REST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND SO NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS
DISSIPATE AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-
     005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 151723
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 121 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES TO BE
IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 6PM FOR VERMONT WEST OF THE GREENS AND
WINDSOR COUNTY. AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AS SOME OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE IS
MIXING UP. EXPECT THAT TO ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND RH`S ACROSS THE
AREA TO CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 10-20KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN
PRETTY GUSTY UP TO 30KTS AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. THE REST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND SO NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS
DISSIPATE AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-
     005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 151445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES TO BE
IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 11AM THROUGH 6PM FOR VERMONT WEST OF THE
GREENS AND WINDSOR COUNTY. THE BUILDING RIDGE IS QUICKLY DRYING
OUT THE CONDITIONS AS PLENTY OF SITES ARE ALREADY REPORTING RH`S
IN THE 20-30 RANGE. AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN TODAY
MODERATE WINDS 10-20KTS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
IS STRUGGLING TO HANDLE HOW DRY THE RIDGE IS SO I`VE HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO DROP DEW POINTS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TO MATCH OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 704 AM...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS
MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY
DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE.
925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS
DISSIPATE AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-
     005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 151113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS
DISSIPATE AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 151113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS
DISSIPATE AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 151113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS
DISSIPATE AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 151113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS
DISSIPATE AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 151111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 151111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 151111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 151111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO WET
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM UNDER
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND FOR WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 150850
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO
WET ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU
6PM ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT UNDER EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY. EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 150850
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO
WET ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU
6PM ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT UNDER EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY. EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 150850
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO
WET ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU
6PM ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT UNDER EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY. EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 150850
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO
WET ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU
6PM ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT UNDER EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY. EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 150749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO SKY AND HOURLY
TEMPS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
BORDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN 20S AND 30S...WITH COLDEST
READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT TUESDAY...BUILDING RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). WITH RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE P-GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25-28 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LESS GUSTY
WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL...
LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...AND LOCALLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.

S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SE OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW UPPER
60S POSSIBLE.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
POINT...PEAKING AT 30-40% TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT MORE
MILD...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPR 30S...EXCEPT LOW 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH
STATE OFFICIALS: FINE DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED AS SUFFICIENTLY DRY
NOW ACROSS WRN VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE
STILL TOO WET ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT AND INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WRN VT UNDER EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SWD INTO WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...ENDING ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY YESTERDAY/S VERY WARM
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT (BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMTS 0.1-0.25") HAVE CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES
ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR
FLOODING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS
RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 150749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO SKY AND HOURLY
TEMPS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
BORDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN 20S AND 30S...WITH COLDEST
READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT TUESDAY...BUILDING RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). WITH RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE P-GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25-28 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LESS GUSTY
WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL...
LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...AND LOCALLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.

S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SE OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW UPPER
60S POSSIBLE.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
POINT...PEAKING AT 30-40% TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT MORE
MILD...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPR 30S...EXCEPT LOW 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH
STATE OFFICIALS: FINE DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED AS SUFFICIENTLY DRY
NOW ACROSS WRN VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE
STILL TOO WET ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT AND INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WRN VT UNDER EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SWD INTO WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...ENDING ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY YESTERDAY/S VERY WARM
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT (BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMTS 0.1-0.25") HAVE CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES
ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR
FLOODING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS
RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 150749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO SKY AND HOURLY
TEMPS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
BORDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN 20S AND 30S...WITH COLDEST
READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT TUESDAY...BUILDING RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). WITH RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE P-GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25-28 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LESS GUSTY
WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL...
LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...AND LOCALLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.

S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SE OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW UPPER
60S POSSIBLE.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
POINT...PEAKING AT 30-40% TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT MORE
MILD...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPR 30S...EXCEPT LOW 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH
STATE OFFICIALS: FINE DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED AS SUFFICIENTLY DRY
NOW ACROSS WRN VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE
STILL TOO WET ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT AND INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WRN VT UNDER EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SWD INTO WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...ENDING ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY YESTERDAY/S VERY WARM
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT (BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMTS 0.1-0.25") HAVE CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES
ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR
FLOODING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS
RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 150529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO SKY AND HOURLY
TEMPS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
BORDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN 20S AND 30S...WITH COLDEST
READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT TUESDAY...BUILDING RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). WITH RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE P-GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25-28 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LESS GUSTY
WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL...
LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...AND LOCALLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.

S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SE OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW UPPER
60S POSSIBLE.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
POINT...PEAKING AT 30-40% TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT MORE
MILD...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPR 30S...EXCEPT LOW 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE UNFORTUNATELY...THOUGH IT DOES PROMISE TO BE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...MOVING EASTWARD AND NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT ON SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY
TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH
STATE OFFICIALS: FINE DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED AS SUFFICIENTLY DRY
NOW ACROSS WRN VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE
STILL TOO WET ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT AND INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WRN VT UNDER EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SWD INTO WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...ENDING ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY YESTERDAY/S VERY WARM
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT (BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMTS 0.1-0.25") HAVE CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES
ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR
FLOODING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS
RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 150529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO SKY AND HOURLY
TEMPS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
BORDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN 20S AND 30S...WITH COLDEST
READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT TUESDAY...BUILDING RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). WITH RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE P-GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25-28 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LESS GUSTY
WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL...
LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...AND LOCALLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.

S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SE OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW UPPER
60S POSSIBLE.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
POINT...PEAKING AT 30-40% TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT MORE
MILD...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPR 30S...EXCEPT LOW 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE UNFORTUNATELY...THOUGH IT DOES PROMISE TO BE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...MOVING EASTWARD AND NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT ON SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY
TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH
STATE OFFICIALS: FINE DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED AS SUFFICIENTLY DRY
NOW ACROSS WRN VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE
STILL TOO WET ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT AND INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WRN VT UNDER EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SWD INTO WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...ENDING ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY YESTERDAY/S VERY WARM
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT (BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMTS 0.1-0.25") HAVE CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES
ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR
FLOODING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS
RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 150529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO SKY AND HOURLY
TEMPS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
BORDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN 20S AND 30S...WITH COLDEST
READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT TUESDAY...BUILDING RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). WITH RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE P-GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25-28 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LESS GUSTY
WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL...
LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...AND LOCALLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.

S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SE OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW UPPER
60S POSSIBLE.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
POINT...PEAKING AT 30-40% TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT MORE
MILD...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPR 30S...EXCEPT LOW 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE UNFORTUNATELY...THOUGH IT DOES PROMISE TO BE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...MOVING EASTWARD AND NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT ON SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY
TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH
STATE OFFICIALS: FINE DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED AS SUFFICIENTLY DRY
NOW ACROSS WRN VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE
STILL TOO WET ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT AND INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WRN VT UNDER EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SWD INTO WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...ENDING ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY YESTERDAY/S VERY WARM
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT (BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMTS 0.1-0.25") HAVE CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES
ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR
FLOODING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS
RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 150529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO SKY AND HOURLY
TEMPS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
BORDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN 20S AND 30S...WITH COLDEST
READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT TUESDAY...BUILDING RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). WITH RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE P-GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25-28 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LESS GUSTY
WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL...
LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...AND LOCALLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.

S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SE OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW UPPER
60S POSSIBLE.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
POINT...PEAKING AT 30-40% TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT MORE
MILD...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPR 30S...EXCEPT LOW 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE UNFORTUNATELY...THOUGH IT DOES PROMISE TO BE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...MOVING EASTWARD AND NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT ON SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY
TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH
STATE OFFICIALS: FINE DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED AS SUFFICIENTLY DRY
NOW ACROSS WRN VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE
STILL TOO WET ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT AND INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU 6PM WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WRN VT UNDER EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SWD INTO WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...ENDING ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX THREAT.

DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY YESTERDAY/S VERY WARM
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT (BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMTS 0.1-0.25") HAVE CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES
ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR
FLOODING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS
RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




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