Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KBTV 102337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. SNOW WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS
FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON
THUS FAR FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW
ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 636 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN TO CURRENT TEMPS
TRENDING A BIT COLDER SOONER. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONTINUED
AREAS/PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW, SNOW SHOWERS, OR FLURRIES WITH A
LIGHT DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. WNW
UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEING BLOCKED SOMEWHAT WITH FROUDE NUMBERS AROUND
OR LESS THAN 1. THE BLOCKING CAUSING SOME MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT
SNOW UP AGAINST THE GREENS AT THE MOMENT. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES IN TOWARDS
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE`RE FINALLY
SEEING SOME INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS
BUILDING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY. IDEA FROM EARLIER TODAY
STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO 2-3"
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND JUST A DUSTING ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BY EARLY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS. IN FACT, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COMING TO
AN END AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IN THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKE REGION. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO REACH ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY BY MID
MORNING. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, 925MB-
850MB WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL HELP LAKE EFFECT STRETCH TO THE
NORTHERN AND NWRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT
BAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS, BEFORE WEAKENING COME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF 25- 30 TO 1
POSSIBLE. WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A QUARTER INCH...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, HALF INCH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NY
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND THE GREEN MTNS. 2 INCHES OR
LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING...NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO
IN AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. ANOTHER RUN
AT WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NY
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
TEA KETTLING TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCNL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME,
AND AT KSLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT
-SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE DISCRETELY IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR KSLK.
WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING GUSTY INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 102337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. SNOW WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS
FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON
THUS FAR FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW
ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 636 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN TO CURRENT TEMPS
TRENDING A BIT COLDER SOONER. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONTINUED
AREAS/PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW, SNOW SHOWERS, OR FLURRIES WITH A
LIGHT DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. WNW
UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEING BLOCKED SOMEWHAT WITH FROUDE NUMBERS AROUND
OR LESS THAN 1. THE BLOCKING CAUSING SOME MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT
SNOW UP AGAINST THE GREENS AT THE MOMENT. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES IN TOWARDS
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE`RE FINALLY
SEEING SOME INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS
BUILDING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY. IDEA FROM EARLIER TODAY
STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO 2-3"
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND JUST A DUSTING ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BY EARLY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS. IN FACT, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COMING TO
AN END AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IN THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKE REGION. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO REACH ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY BY MID
MORNING. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, 925MB-
850MB WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL HELP LAKE EFFECT STRETCH TO THE
NORTHERN AND NWRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT
BAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS, BEFORE WEAKENING COME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF 25- 30 TO 1
POSSIBLE. WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A QUARTER INCH...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, HALF INCH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NY
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND THE GREEN MTNS. 2 INCHES OR
LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING...NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO
IN AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. ANOTHER RUN
AT WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NY
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
TEA KETTLING TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCNL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME,
AND AT KSLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT
-SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE DISCRETELY IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR KSLK.
WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING GUSTY INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 102337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. SNOW WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS
FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON
THUS FAR FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW
ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 636 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN TO CURRENT TEMPS
TRENDING A BIT COLDER SOONER. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONTINUED
AREAS/PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW, SNOW SHOWERS, OR FLURRIES WITH A
LIGHT DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. WNW
UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEING BLOCKED SOMEWHAT WITH FROUDE NUMBERS AROUND
OR LESS THAN 1. THE BLOCKING CAUSING SOME MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT
SNOW UP AGAINST THE GREENS AT THE MOMENT. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES IN TOWARDS
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE`RE FINALLY
SEEING SOME INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS
BUILDING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY. IDEA FROM EARLIER TODAY
STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO 2-3"
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND JUST A DUSTING ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BY EARLY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS. IN FACT, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COMING TO
AN END AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IN THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKE REGION. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO REACH ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY BY MID
MORNING. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, 925MB-
850MB WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL HELP LAKE EFFECT STRETCH TO THE
NORTHERN AND NWRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT
BAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS, BEFORE WEAKENING COME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF 25- 30 TO 1
POSSIBLE. WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A QUARTER INCH...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, HALF INCH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NY
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND THE GREEN MTNS. 2 INCHES OR
LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING...NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO
IN AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. ANOTHER RUN
AT WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NY
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
TEA KETTLING TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCNL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME,
AND AT KSLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT
-SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE DISCRETELY IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR KSLK.
WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING GUSTY INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 102322
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY, AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE`RE FINALLY
SEEING SOME INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS
BUILDING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY. IDEA FROM EARLIER TODAY
STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO 2-3"
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND JUST A DUSTING ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BY EARLY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS. IN FACT, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COMING TO
AN END AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IN THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKE REGION. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO REACH ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY BY MID
MORNING. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, 925MB-
850MB WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL HELP LAKE EFFECT STRETCH TO THE
NORTHERN AND NWRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT
BAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS, BEFORE WEAKENING COME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF 25- 30 TO 1
POSSIBLE. WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A QUARTER INCH...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, HALF INCH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NY
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND THE GREEN MTNS. 2 INCHES OR
LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING...NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO
IN AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. ANOTHER RUN
AT WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NY
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
TEA KETTLING TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCNL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME,
AND AT KSLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT
-SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE DISCRETELY IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR KSLK.
WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING GUSTY INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 102322
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY, AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE`RE FINALLY
SEEING SOME INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS
BUILDING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY. IDEA FROM EARLIER TODAY
STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO 2-3"
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND JUST A DUSTING ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BY EARLY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS. IN FACT, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COMING TO
AN END AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IN THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKE REGION. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO REACH ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY BY MID
MORNING. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, 925MB-
850MB WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL HELP LAKE EFFECT STRETCH TO THE
NORTHERN AND NWRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT
BAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS, BEFORE WEAKENING COME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF 25- 30 TO 1
POSSIBLE. WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A QUARTER INCH...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, HALF INCH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NY
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND THE GREEN MTNS. 2 INCHES OR
LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING...NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO
IN AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. ANOTHER RUN
AT WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NY
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
TEA KETTLING TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCNL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME,
AND AT KSLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT
-SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE DISCRETELY IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR KSLK.
WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING GUSTY INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 102322
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY, AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE`RE FINALLY
SEEING SOME INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS
BUILDING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY. IDEA FROM EARLIER TODAY
STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO 2-3"
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND JUST A DUSTING ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BY EARLY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS. IN FACT, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COMING TO
AN END AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IN THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKE REGION. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO REACH ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY BY MID
MORNING. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, 925MB-
850MB WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL HELP LAKE EFFECT STRETCH TO THE
NORTHERN AND NWRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT
BAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS, BEFORE WEAKENING COME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF 25- 30 TO 1
POSSIBLE. WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A QUARTER INCH...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, HALF INCH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NY
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND THE GREEN MTNS. 2 INCHES OR
LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING...NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO
IN AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. ANOTHER RUN
AT WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NY
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
TEA KETTLING TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCNL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME,
AND AT KSLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT
-SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE DISCRETELY IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR KSLK.
WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING GUSTY INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 102104
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY, AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE`RE FINALLY
SEEING SOME INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS
BUILDING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY. IDEA FROM EARLIER TODAY
STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO 2-3"
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND JUST A DUSTING ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BY EARLY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS. IN FACT, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COMING TO
AN END AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IN THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKE REGION. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO REACH ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY BY MID
MORNING. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, 925MB-
850MB WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL HELP LAKE EFFECT STRETCH TO THE
NORTHERN AND NWRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT
BAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS, BEFORE WEAKENING COME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF 25- 30 TO 1
POSSIBLE. WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A QUARTER INCH...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, HALF INCH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NY
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND THE GREEN MTNS. 2 INCHES OR
LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING...NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO
IN AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. ANOTHER RUN
AT WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NY
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
TEA KETTLING TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT
SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE PERIODS
OF IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, EXCEPT KRUT WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. SNOW ACTIVITY
WANES TONIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT REMAINS PREVALENT AT
KSLK. IFR VSBY SHOULD CONTINUE THERE WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS
LIFTING TO VFR VSBY, BUT REMAINING MVFR IN REGARDS TO CIGS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 101955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
255 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY, AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE`RE FINALLY
SEEING SOME INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS
BUILDING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY. IDEA FROM EARLIER TODAY
STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO 2-3"
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND JUST A DUSTING ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BY EARLY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS. IN FACT, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT
SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE PERIODS
OF IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, EXCEPT KRUT WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. SNOW ACTIVITY
WANES TONIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT REMAINS PREVALENT AT
KSLK. IFR VSBY SHOULD CONTINUE THERE WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS
LIFTING TO VFR VSBY, BUT REMAINING MVFR IN REGARDS TO CIGS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 101955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
255 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY, AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE`RE FINALLY
SEEING SOME INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS
BUILDING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY. IDEA FROM EARLIER TODAY
STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO 2-3"
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND JUST A DUSTING ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BY EARLY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS. IN FACT, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT
SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE PERIODS
OF IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, EXCEPT KRUT WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. SNOW ACTIVITY
WANES TONIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT REMAINS PREVALENT AT
KSLK. IFR VSBY SHOULD CONTINUE THERE WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS
LIFTING TO VFR VSBY, BUT REMAINING MVFR IN REGARDS TO CIGS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 101955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
255 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY, AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE`RE FINALLY
SEEING SOME INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS
BUILDING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY. IDEA FROM EARLIER TODAY
STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO 2-3"
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND JUST A DUSTING ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BY EARLY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS. IN FACT, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT
SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE PERIODS
OF IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, EXCEPT KRUT WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. SNOW ACTIVITY
WANES TONIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT REMAINS PREVALENT AT
KSLK. IFR VSBY SHOULD CONTINUE THERE WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS
LIFTING TO VFR VSBY, BUT REMAINING MVFR IN REGARDS TO CIGS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 101745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MODELS STRUGGLING THIS AFTERNOON
HANDLING THE INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MY PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE ONE MOVING FORWARD COULD BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, BUT ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
OUR BELOVED LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF STILL SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD. SO
FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE ON WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTING INCREASING CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS SHOWED DECREASED SURFACE VISIBILITY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS SO ASSUME THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FEATURE
MOVES EASTWARD WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO PERHAPS
1.5" THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT, AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION. FOR MOST OF
THE REGION CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER, BUT
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE-MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE IN THE 1-2" RANGE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT
SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE PERIODS
OF IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, EXCEPT KRUT WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. SNOW ACTIVITY
WANES TONIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT REMAINS PREVALENT AT
KSLK. IFR VSBY SHOULD CONTINUE THERE WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS
LIFTING TO VFR VSBY, BUT REMAINING MVFR IN REGARDS TO CIGS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 101745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MODELS STRUGGLING THIS AFTERNOON
HANDLING THE INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MY PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE ONE MOVING FORWARD COULD BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, BUT ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
OUR BELOVED LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF STILL SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD. SO
FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE ON WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTING INCREASING CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS SHOWED DECREASED SURFACE VISIBILITY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS SO ASSUME THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FEATURE
MOVES EASTWARD WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO PERHAPS
1.5" THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT, AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION. FOR MOST OF
THE REGION CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER, BUT
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE-MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE IN THE 1-2" RANGE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT
SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE PERIODS
OF IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, EXCEPT KRUT WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. SNOW ACTIVITY
WANES TONIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT REMAINS PREVALENT AT
KSLK. IFR VSBY SHOULD CONTINUE THERE WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS
LIFTING TO VFR VSBY, BUT REMAINING MVFR IN REGARDS TO CIGS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 101745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MODELS STRUGGLING THIS AFTERNOON
HANDLING THE INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MY PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE ONE MOVING FORWARD COULD BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, BUT ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
OUR BELOVED LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF STILL SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD. SO
FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE ON WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTING INCREASING CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS SHOWED DECREASED SURFACE VISIBILITY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS SO ASSUME THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FEATURE
MOVES EASTWARD WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO PERHAPS
1.5" THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT, AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION. FOR MOST OF
THE REGION CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER, BUT
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE-MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE IN THE 1-2" RANGE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT
SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE PERIODS
OF IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, EXCEPT KRUT WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. SNOW ACTIVITY
WANES TONIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT REMAINS PREVALENT AT
KSLK. IFR VSBY SHOULD CONTINUE THERE WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS
LIFTING TO VFR VSBY, BUT REMAINING MVFR IN REGARDS TO CIGS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 101449
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 948 AM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT
DID OPT TO INCREASE POPS WHERE IT`S BEEN SNOWING ALL MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE, REMAINDER OF
FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT SO EXPECTING A STEADY BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.
HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. COULD SEE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF
SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING OF SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR
STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
FROM 19Z-21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 101449
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 948 AM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT
DID OPT TO INCREASE POPS WHERE IT`S BEEN SNOWING ALL MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE, REMAINDER OF
FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT SO EXPECTING A STEADY BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.
HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. COULD SEE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF
SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING OF SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR
STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
FROM 19Z-21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 101147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 647 AM EST WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 358 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT SO EXPECTING A STEADY BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
COULD SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF
SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING OF SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR
STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
FROM 19Z-21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 101147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 647 AM EST WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 358 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT SO EXPECTING A STEADY BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
COULD SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF
SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING OF SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR
STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
FROM 19Z-21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 100858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 358 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT SO EXPECTING A STEADY BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.
HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. COULD SEE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF
SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING OF SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR
STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
FROM 19Z-21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW
SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 100858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 358 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT SO EXPECTING A STEADY BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.
HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. COULD SEE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF
SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING OF SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR
STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
FROM 19Z-21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW
SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 100858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 358 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT SO EXPECTING A STEADY BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.
HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. COULD SEE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF
SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING OF SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR
STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
FROM 19Z-21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW
SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 100831
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 103 AM EST WEDNESDAY...HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 918 PM EST TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT NOT REALLY AMOUNTING TO MUCH. GOING FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING
WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
NEAR MASSENA, BUT OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER PERSISTING.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO
WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2".

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIR MASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF
SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING OF SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR
STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
FROM 19Z-21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW
SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 100831
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 103 AM EST WEDNESDAY...HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 918 PM EST TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT NOT REALLY AMOUNTING TO MUCH. GOING FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING
WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
NEAR MASSENA, BUT OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER PERSISTING.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO
WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2".

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIR MASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF
SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING OF SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR
STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
FROM 19Z-21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW
SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 100603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 AM EST WEDNESDAY...HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 918 PM EST TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT NOT REALLY AMOUNTING TO MUCH. GOING FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR MASSENA, BUT
OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO
WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2".

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIR MASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW
DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE
FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE
LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL
DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA
FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY
UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB
TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN
-20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN
THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND
-24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM
-5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD
OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX
MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND
-30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM -
25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY
COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH OCCASIONALPERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF SNOWFALL.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM 19Z-21Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 100603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 AM EST WEDNESDAY...HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 918 PM EST TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT NOT REALLY AMOUNTING TO MUCH. GOING FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR MASSENA, BUT
OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO
WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2".

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIR MASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW
DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE
FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE
LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL
DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA
FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY
UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB
TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN
-20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN
THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND
-24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM
-5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD
OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX
MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND
-30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM -
25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY
COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH OCCASIONALPERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF SNOWFALL.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM 19Z-21Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 100603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 AM EST WEDNESDAY...HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 918 PM EST TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT NOT REALLY AMOUNTING TO MUCH. GOING FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR MASSENA, BUT
OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO
WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2".

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIR MASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW
DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE
FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE
LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL
DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA
FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY
UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB
TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN
-20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN
THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND
-24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM
-5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD
OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX
MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND
-30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM -
25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY
COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH OCCASIONALPERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF SNOWFALL.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM 19Z-21Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 100218
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
918 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 918 PM EST TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT NOT REALLY
AMOUNTING TO MUCH. GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR MASSENA, BUT
OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO
WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2".

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIR MASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW
DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE
FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE
LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL
DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA
FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY
UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB
TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN
-20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN
THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND
-24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM
-5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD
OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX
MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND
-30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM -
25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY
COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY WITH SOME IFR/MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BUT MORE LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ACROSS NY WITH KSLK/KMSS
VSBY LOWERING BACK TO IFR, THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z.
LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FROM 12-18Z AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 100218
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
918 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 918 PM EST TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT NOT REALLY
AMOUNTING TO MUCH. GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR MASSENA, BUT
OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO
WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2".

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIR MASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW
DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE
FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE
LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL
DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA
FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY
UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB
TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN
-20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN
THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND
-24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM
-5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD
OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX
MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND
-30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM -
25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY
COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY WITH SOME IFR/MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BUT MORE LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ACROSS NY WITH KSLK/KMSS
VSBY LOWERING BACK TO IFR, THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z.
LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FROM 12-18Z AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 092342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 634 PM EST TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN INTACT. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS WHICH GOING FORECAST
HAS COVERED WELL. AND WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
REGION...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE...BUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. AGAIN...ALL THIS
IS COVERED WELL IN GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR MASSENA, BUT
OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO
WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2".

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIR MASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW
DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE
FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE
LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL
DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA
FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY
UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB
TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN
-20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN
THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND
-24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM
-5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD
OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX
MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND
-30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM -
25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY
COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY WITH SOME IFR/MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BUT MORE LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ACROSS NY WITH KSLK/KMSS
VSBY LOWERING BACK TO IFR, THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z.
LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FROM 12-18Z AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 092334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 634 PM EST TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN INTACT. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS WHICH GOING FORECAST
HAS COVERED WELL. AND WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
REGION...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE...BUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. AGAIN...ALL THIS
IS COVERED WELL IN GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR MASSENA, BUT
OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO
WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2".

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIR MASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW
DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE
FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE
LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL
DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA
FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY
UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB
TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN
-20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN
THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND
-24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM
-5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD
OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX
MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND
-30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM -
25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY
COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY WITH SOME IFR/MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARDS A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VSBY RETURNING TO VFR AS SNOW DISSIPATES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITH VFR VSBY THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z
SNOW RETURNS BEGINNING AT KSLK/KMSS WITH VSBY LOWERING BACK TO
IFR, THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z. LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBY
AND MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FROM 12-18Z WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEASTERLY AT
8-12KTS AT KMSS THROUGH 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY
IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 092334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 634 PM EST TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN INTACT. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS WHICH GOING FORECAST
HAS COVERED WELL. AND WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
REGION...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE...BUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. AGAIN...ALL THIS
IS COVERED WELL IN GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR MASSENA, BUT
OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO
WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2".

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIR MASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW
DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE
FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE
LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL
DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA
FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY
UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB
TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN
-20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN
THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND
-24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM
-5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD
OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX
MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND
-30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM -
25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY
COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY WITH SOME IFR/MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARDS A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VSBY RETURNING TO VFR AS SNOW DISSIPATES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITH VFR VSBY THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z
SNOW RETURNS BEGINNING AT KSLK/KMSS WITH VSBY LOWERING BACK TO
IFR, THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z. LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBY
AND MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FROM 12-18Z WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEASTERLY AT
8-12KTS AT KMSS THROUGH 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY
IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 092334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 634 PM EST TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN INTACT. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS WHICH GOING FORECAST
HAS COVERED WELL. AND WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
REGION...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE...BUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. AGAIN...ALL THIS
IS COVERED WELL IN GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR MASSENA, BUT
OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO
WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2".

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIR MASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW
DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE
FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE
LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL
DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA
FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY
UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB
TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN
-20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN
THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND
-24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM
-5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD
OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX
MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND
-30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM -
25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY
COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY WITH SOME IFR/MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARDS A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VSBY RETURNING TO VFR AS SNOW DISSIPATES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITH VFR VSBY THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z
SNOW RETURNS BEGINNING AT KSLK/KMSS WITH VSBY LOWERING BACK TO
IFR, THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z. LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBY
AND MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FROM 12-18Z WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEASTERLY AT
8-12KTS AT KMSS THROUGH 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY
IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 092030
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOTALING 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE`RE STILL DEALING
WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
NEAR MASSENA, BUT OVERALL TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER PERSISTING.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE BTV CWA, THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TORONTO
WILL SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES
AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT BASED ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THINK THE DENDRITES WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL AND TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN 1-2".

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT AND LITTLE OVERALL AIRMASS CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT, MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPS WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW
DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE
FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE
LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL
DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA
FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY
UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB
TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN
-20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN
THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND
-24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM
-5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD
OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX
MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND
-30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM -
25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY
COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY WITH SOME IFR/MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARDS A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VSBY RETURNING TO VFR AS SNOW DISSIPATES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITH VFR VSBY THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z
SNOW RETURNS BEGINNING AT KSLK/KMSS WITH VSBY LOWERING BACK TO
IFR, THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z. LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBY
AND MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FROM 12-18Z WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEASTERLY AT
8-12KTS AT KMSS THROUGH 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY
IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 091932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
232 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND BELOW
ZERO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1258 PM EST TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS
AREA SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SHOULD EXIT NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
MAX TEMPS ON SCHEDULE TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 930 AM...THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS WANED THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW OFF IN THE GULF OF
ST. LAWRENCE BEING REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THOUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PA AND
THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AGAIN
TOWARDS THE NOON HOUR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES AGAIN
GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

FOR TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN, BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD
SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW
DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE
FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE
LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL
DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA
FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY
UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB
TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN
-20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER
850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN
THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND
-24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM
-5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD
OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX
MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND
-30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM -
25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY
COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY WITH SOME IFR/MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARDS A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VSBY RETURNING TO VFR AS SNOW DISSIPATES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITH VFR VSBY THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z
SNOW RETURNS BEGINNING AT KSLK/KMSS WITH VSBY LOWERING BACK TO
IFR, THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z. LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBY
AND MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FROM 12-18Z WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEASTERLY AT
8-12KTS AT KMSS THROUGH 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY
IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.
12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 091758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND BELOW
ZERO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 PM EST TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS
AREA SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SHOULD EXIT NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
MAX TEMPS ON SCHEDULE TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 930 AM...THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS WANED THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW OFF IN THE GULF OF
ST. LAWRENCE BEING REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THOUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PA AND
THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AGAIN
TOWARDS THE NOON HOUR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES AGAIN
GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

FOR TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN, BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD
SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY WITH SOME IFR/MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARDS A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VSBY RETURNING TO VFR AS SNOW DISSIPATES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITH VFR VSBY THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z
SNOW RETURNS BEGINNING AT KSLK/KMSS WITH VSBY LOWERING BACK TO
IFR, THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z. LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBY
AND MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FROM 12-18Z WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEASTERLY AT
8-12KTS AT KMSS THROUGH 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY
IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY.
12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 091429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND BELOW
ZERO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST TUESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS WANED THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW OFF IN THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE BEING REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE THOUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PA AND THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARDS
THE NOON HOUR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES AGAIN GOING INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

FOR TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN, BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD
SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALSO SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z FRI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 091429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND BELOW
ZERO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST TUESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS WANED THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW OFF IN THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE BEING REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE THOUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PA AND THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARDS
THE NOON HOUR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES AGAIN GOING INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

FOR TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN, BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD
SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALSO SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z FRI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 091429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND BELOW
ZERO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST TUESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS WANED THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW OFF IN THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE BEING REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE THOUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PA AND THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARDS
THE NOON HOUR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES AGAIN GOING INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

FOR TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN, BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD
SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALSO SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z FRI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 091157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
657 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 657 AM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO AN END OR DIMINISHED IN
SOME LOCATIONS. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. STILL EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES AS UPPER
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN
INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALSO SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z FRI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 091157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
657 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 657 AM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO AN END OR DIMINISHED IN
SOME LOCATIONS. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. STILL EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES AS UPPER
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN
INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALSO SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z FRI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 091157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
657 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 657 AM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO AN END OR DIMINISHED IN
SOME LOCATIONS. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. STILL EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES AS UPPER
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN
INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALSO SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z FRI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 090900
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 090900
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090900
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 090833
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 103 AM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090833
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 103 AM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 090833
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 103 AM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 090603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...WGH/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 090603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 941 PM EST MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS VERMONT.
HAVE UPPER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS AND
FINE TUNED DEW POINTS GIVEN THE SHARP DRY TO MOIST SCENARIO AS
PRECIPITATION FINALLY DEVELOPS. REMAINDER OF GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE. STILL LOOKING AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW BY THE TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 090241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 941 PM EST MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS VERMONT.
HAVE UPPER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS AND
FINE TUNED DEW POINTS GIVEN THE SHARP DRY TO MOIST SCENARIO AS
PRECIPITATION FINALLY DEVELOPS. REMAINDER OF GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE. STILL LOOKING AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW BY THE TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 090241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 941 PM EST MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS VERMONT.
HAVE UPPER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS AND
FINE TUNED DEW POINTS GIVEN THE SHARP DRY TO MOIST SCENARIO AS
PRECIPITATION FINALLY DEVELOPS. REMAINDER OF GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE. STILL LOOKING AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW BY THE TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090056
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 756 PM EST MONDAY...AGAIN JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING RATHER QUICKLY AND LIGHT SNOW IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. SO IN THIS CASE WE ARE
INCREASING DEW POINTS NOW THAT LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING FROM EAST TO WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW BY THE
TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE. THUS REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090056
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 756 PM EST MONDAY...AGAIN JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING RATHER QUICKLY AND LIGHT SNOW IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. SO IN THIS CASE WE ARE
INCREASING DEW POINTS NOW THAT LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING FROM EAST TO WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW BY THE
TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE. THUS REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 090056
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 756 PM EST MONDAY...AGAIN JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING RATHER QUICKLY AND LIGHT SNOW IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. SO IN THIS CASE WE ARE
INCREASING DEW POINTS NOW THAT LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING FROM EAST TO WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW BY THE
TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE. THUS REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 082306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
606 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 534 PM EST MONDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF VERMONT. THIS IS HELPING TO SLOW THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED IN SPRINGFIELD VERMONT
NOW. ONLY TWEAKS AT THIS TIME WERE TO LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS
VERMONT AND DELAY THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...STILL
LOOKING AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW BY THE TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS FROM
THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR
WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 082234
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
534 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 534 PM EST MONDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF VERMONT. THIS IS HELPING TO SLOW THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED IN SPRINGFIELD VERMONT
NOW. ONLY TWEAKS AT THIS TIME WERE TO LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS
VERMONT AND DELAY THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...STILL
LOOKING AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW BY THE TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 082035
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS FROM WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE. KVSF SURFACE DEWPOINT IS
CURRENTLY -13F...INDICATING THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH RH VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. EXPECT VIRGA WITH INITIAL BAND LIFTING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE DEEPENING FROM A COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEPARTING OCEAN STORM.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME VERY WEAK LIFT FROM 5H VORT ROTATING
THRU OUR REGION. NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW THE BEST COMBINATION OF
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
00Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING DRY SLOT IMPACTING OUR
SOUTHERN REGIONS BY 12Z TUESDAY. QPF FOR THIS MINIMAL EVENT WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB
NOT EXPECTING MUCH TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOWFALL WITH A VERY UNIFORMED
SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO
BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 082035
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS FROM WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE. KVSF SURFACE DEWPOINT IS
CURRENTLY -13F...INDICATING THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH RH VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. EXPECT VIRGA WITH INITIAL BAND LIFTING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE DEEPENING FROM A COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEPARTING OCEAN STORM.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME VERY WEAK LIFT FROM 5H VORT ROTATING
THRU OUR REGION. NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW THE BEST COMBINATION OF
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
00Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING DRY SLOT IMPACTING OUR
SOUTHERN REGIONS BY 12Z TUESDAY. QPF FOR THIS MINIMAL EVENT WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB
NOT EXPECTING MUCH TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOWFALL WITH A VERY UNIFORMED
SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO
BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 082020
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS...WHICH INCLUDED MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. CURRENT OBS SHOW A VERY DRY POCKET OF AIR
WITH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD CURRENT DEWPOINT OF -11C...CREATING
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN SOME DELAY OF THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIRGA EXPECTED INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 082020
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS...WHICH INCLUDED MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. CURRENT OBS SHOW A VERY DRY POCKET OF AIR
WITH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD CURRENT DEWPOINT OF -11C...CREATING
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN SOME DELAY OF THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIRGA EXPECTED INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 081727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1227 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS...WHICH INCLUDED MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. CURRENT OBS SHOW A VERY DRY POCKET OF AIR
WITH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD CURRENT DEWPOINT OF -11C...CREATING
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN SOME DELAY OF THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIRGA EXPECTED INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 081720
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1220 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS...WHICH INCLUDED MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. CURRENT OBS SHOW A VERY DRY POCKET OF AIR
WITH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD CURRENT DEWPOINT OF -11C...CREATING
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN SOME DELAY OF THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIRGA EXPECTED INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 081141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP AND MOVE WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NET RESULT FOR
THE NORTH COUNTY IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS I DID DELAY THE
INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO FOR THE DAY.
HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR MONDAY!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 081141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP AND MOVE WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NET RESULT FOR
THE NORTH COUNTY IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS I DID DELAY THE
INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO FOR THE DAY.
HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR MONDAY!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 081141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP AND MOVE WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NET RESULT FOR
THE NORTH COUNTY IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS I DID DELAY THE
INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO FOR THE DAY.
HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR MONDAY!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 080920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS
TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 080920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS
TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 080920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS
TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 080852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS
TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 080621
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY
BEFORE A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1247 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT A QUIET EVENING WITH SOME CIRRUS
OVER THE REGION. WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE EVENING. I CONTINUED TO DROP MIN
TEMPS BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO WITH LOW TO MID TEENS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities