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000
FXUS61 KBTV 222315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT
WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH
OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT
WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH
OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222040
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222040
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. SEEING WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE). THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
GETTING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AT NOON (MALONE 37F AND
ELLENBERG DEPOT 39F).

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM)...BUT RADAR
TRENDS AT 1730Z SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH. GRIDS ALREADY HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-
COVERED...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ICE PELLETS FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT- DURATION EVENT YIELDS LESS THAN
0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. SEEING WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE). THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
GETTING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AT NOON (MALONE 37F AND
ELLENBERG DEPOT 39F).

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM)...BUT RADAR
TRENDS AT 1730Z SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH. GRIDS ALREADY HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-
COVERED...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ICE PELLETS FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT- DURATION EVENT YIELDS LESS THAN
0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221524
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221524
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221150
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN
AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS MORNING STARTS TO SLIDE EAST.

PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS A RESULT,
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE
00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221150
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN
AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS MORNING STARTS TO SLIDE EAST.

PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS A RESULT,
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE
00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON SO
STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON SO
STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE ONGWAVE
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD
AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY
FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER
500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL
DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE ONGWAVE
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD
AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY
FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER
500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL
DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 944 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT REST
OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 944 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT REST
OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212359
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 648 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING
SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONALBORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212359
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 648 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING
SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONALBORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 648 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING
SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONALBORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 648 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING
SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONALBORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COMBINATION
OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLDER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COMBINATION
OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLDER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 212004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DECREASED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE LAST TO
CLEAR OUT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...
EVEN COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COMBINATION
OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLDER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 212004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DECREASED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE LAST TO
CLEAR OUT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...
EVEN COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COMBINATION
OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLDER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DECREASED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE LAST TO
CLEAR OUT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...
EVEN COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DECREASED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE LAST TO
CLEAR OUT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...
EVEN COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM EST FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS NUMEROUS ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.
ALSO SOME SNOW SHOWERS EVIDENT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. FROUDE
NUMBERS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT AS DRYING
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES. STILL EXPECTING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...EVEN
COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BUT INFLUX OF DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUT AN END TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM EST FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS NUMEROUS ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.
ALSO SOME SNOW SHOWERS EVIDENT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. FROUDE
NUMBERS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT AS DRYING
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES. STILL EXPECTING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...EVEN
COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BUT INFLUX OF DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUT AN END TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211426
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM EST FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS NUMEROUS ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.
ALSO SOME SNOW SHOWERS EVIDENT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. FROUDE
NUMBERS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT AS DRYING
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES. STILL EXPECTING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...EVEN
COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BUT INFLUX OF DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUT AN END TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211426
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM EST FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS NUMEROUS ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.
ALSO SOME SNOW SHOWERS EVIDENT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. FROUDE
NUMBERS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT AS DRYING
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES. STILL EXPECTING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...EVEN
COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BUT INFLUX OF DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUT AN END TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 651 AM EST FRIDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT INFLUX OF DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUT
AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY
DIMINISHING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE LAST
TO CLEAR OUT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 651 AM EST FRIDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT INFLUX OF DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUT
AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY
DIMINISHING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE LAST
TO CLEAR OUT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOWSHOWERS AT
KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOWSHOWERS AT
KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 210922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSLK FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
REGION, BRINGING MOISTURE AND SOME LOWER CIGS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE AT KSLK TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED VCSH AT KMPV BUT KEPT SNOW OUT OF LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM MID MORNING ON
IN DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ON. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD
00Z.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 210922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSLK FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
REGION, BRINGING MOISTURE AND SOME LOWER CIGS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE AT KSLK TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED VCSH AT KMPV BUT KEPT SNOW OUT OF LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM MID MORNING ON
IN DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ON. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD
00Z.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL REMAIN COLD
AND DRY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST FRIDAY...SCT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY
OVER NRN NY AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT TO SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING SOME FLURRIES. LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20KTS
OUT OF THE SW WILL SHIFT NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSLK FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
REGION, BRINGING MOISTURE AND SOME LOWER CIGS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE AT KSLK TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED VCSH AT KMPV BUT KEPT SNOW OUT OF LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM MID MORNING ON
IN DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ON. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD
00Z.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL REMAIN COLD
AND DRY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK...SO ALL HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DROPPED WITH
LATEST UPDATE. THE BAND DOES EXTEND EAST INTO SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS FURTHER AS IT TRANSLATES INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR OUR CWA HAS ENDED.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS TURNING
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSLK FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
REGION, BRINGING MOISTURE AND SOME LOWER CIGS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE AT KSLK TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED VCSH AT KMPV BUT KEPT SNOW OUT OF LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM MID MORNING ON
IN DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ON. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD
00Z.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL REMAIN COLD
AND DRY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK...SO ALL HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DROPPED WITH
LATEST UPDATE. THE BAND DOES EXTEND EAST INTO SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS FURTHER AS IT TRANSLATES INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR OUR CWA HAS ENDED.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS TURNING
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSLK FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
REGION, BRINGING MOISTURE AND SOME LOWER CIGS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE AT KSLK TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED VCSH AT KMPV BUT KEPT SNOW OUT OF LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM MID MORNING ON
IN DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ON. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD
00Z.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 210248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
948 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL REMAIN COLD
AND DRY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK...SO ALL HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DROPPED WITH
LATEST UPDATE. THE BAND DOES EXTEND EAST INTO SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS FURTHER AS IT TRANSLATES INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR OUR CWA HAS ENDED.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS TURNING
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE SNOW BAND AT KSLK HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE DONE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE AIRPORT HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH. THE BAND
HAS BROKEN UP ENOUGH THAT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST I DON`T
HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE BAND COULD REACH EITHER KRUT OR KMPV AT
THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
SHOULD DROP ALL SITES TO MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOR THE KSLK/KMSS SITES AROUND 05-06Z WITH
THE REST DROPPING TO MVFR BY 12Z. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO
WEST SOUTH WEST BEFORE SHIFTING OVERNIGHT TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO STILL BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT IN THE 7-13 KT
RANGE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING/ EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
948 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL REMAIN COLD
AND DRY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK...SO ALL HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DROPPED WITH
LATEST UPDATE. THE BAND DOES EXTEND EAST INTO SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS FURTHER AS IT TRANSLATES INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR OUR CWA HAS ENDED.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS TURNING
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE SNOW BAND AT KSLK HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE DONE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE AIRPORT HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH. THE BAND
HAS BROKEN UP ENOUGH THAT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST I DON`T
HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE BAND COULD REACH EITHER KRUT OR KMPV AT
THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
SHOULD DROP ALL SITES TO MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOR THE KSLK/KMSS SITES AROUND 05-06Z WITH
THE REST DROPPING TO MVFR BY 12Z. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO
WEST SOUTH WEST BEFORE SHIFTING OVERNIGHT TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO STILL BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT IN THE 7-13 KT
RANGE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING/ EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 210000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
BEFORE THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 623 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DEPRESS SLOWLY SOUTH. IT CONTINUES TO AFFECT
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
NY...AND EXTENDS EAST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST INTO CENTRAL VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING HEADLINES THAT ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY NY
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO
CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BAND OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FRANKLIN
COUNTY OF NEW YORK. WE`VE ALREADY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD GET A FEW MORE INCHES BEFORE THE BAND MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS
SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY IS NO LONGER A THREAT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUING FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE SNOW BAND AT KSLK HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE DONE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE AIRPORT HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH. THE BAND
HAS BROKEN UP ENOUGH THAT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST I DON`T
HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE BAND COULD REACH EITHER KRUT OR KMPV AT
THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
SHOULD DROP ALL SITES TO MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOR THE KSLK/KMSS SITES AROUND 05-06Z WITH
THE REST DROPPING TO MVFR BY 12Z. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO
WEST SOUTH WEST BEFORE SHIFTING OVERNIGHT TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO STILL BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT IN THE 7-13 KT
RANGE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING/ EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING IN THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE...WHICH WILL CAUSE 1 TO 3 WAVES AND A LIGHT TO MODEST
CHOP ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN
SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
BEFORE THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 623 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DEPRESS SLOWLY SOUTH. IT CONTINUES TO AFFECT
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
NY...AND EXTENDS EAST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST INTO CENTRAL VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING HEADLINES THAT ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY NY
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO
CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BAND OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FRANKLIN
COUNTY OF NEW YORK. WE`VE ALREADY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD GET A FEW MORE INCHES BEFORE THE BAND MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS
SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY IS NO LONGER A THREAT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUING FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE SNOW BAND AT KSLK HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE DONE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE AIRPORT HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH. THE BAND
HAS BROKEN UP ENOUGH THAT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST I DON`T
HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE BAND COULD REACH EITHER KRUT OR KMPV AT
THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
SHOULD DROP ALL SITES TO MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOR THE KSLK/KMSS SITES AROUND 05-06Z WITH
THE REST DROPPING TO MVFR BY 12Z. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO
WEST SOUTH WEST BEFORE SHIFTING OVERNIGHT TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO STILL BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT IN THE 7-13 KT
RANGE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING/ EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING IN THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE...WHICH WILL CAUSE 1 TO 3 WAVES AND A LIGHT TO MODEST
CHOP ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN
SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
BEFORE THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 623 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DEPRESS SLOWLY SOUTH. IT CONTINUES TO AFFECT
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
NY...AND EXTENDS EAST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST INTO CENTRAL VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING HEADLINES THAT ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY NY
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO
CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BAND OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FRANKLIN
COUNTY OF NEW YORK. WE`VE ALREADY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD GET A FEW MORE INCHES BEFORE THE BAND MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS
SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY IS NO LONGER A THREAT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUING FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT
KSLK/KPBG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE BAND
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KRUT THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AFTER
00Z SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON ABATE BUT STAY RATHER BRISK AT 8-12KT OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NOTING SOME MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA WHICH WILL
MAKE A RUN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VERMONT. CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO
VFR APPROACHING 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING IN THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE...WHICH WILL CAUSE 1 TO 3 WAVES AND A LIGHT TO MODEST
CHOP ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN
SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
BEFORE THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 623 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DEPRESS SLOWLY SOUTH. IT CONTINUES TO AFFECT
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
NY...AND EXTENDS EAST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST INTO CENTRAL VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING HEADLINES THAT ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY NY
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO
CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BAND OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FRANKLIN
COUNTY OF NEW YORK. WE`VE ALREADY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD GET A FEW MORE INCHES BEFORE THE BAND MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS
SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY IS NO LONGER A THREAT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUING FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT
KSLK/KPBG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE BAND
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KRUT THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AFTER
00Z SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON ABATE BUT STAY RATHER BRISK AT 8-12KT OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NOTING SOME MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA WHICH WILL
MAKE A RUN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VERMONT. CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO
VFR APPROACHING 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING IN THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE...WHICH WILL CAUSE 1 TO 3 WAVES AND A LIGHT TO MODEST
CHOP ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN
SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202028
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
BEFORE THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO
CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BAND OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FRANKLIN
COUNTY OF NEW YORK. WE`VE ALREADY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD GET A FEW MORE INCHES BEFORE THE BAND MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS
SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY IS NO LONGER A THREAT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUING FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT
KSLK/KPBG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE BAND
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KRUT THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AFTER
00Z SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON ABATE BUT STAY RATHER BRISK AT 8-12KT OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NOTING SOME MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA WHICH WILL
MAKE A RUN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VERMONT. CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO
VFR APPROACHING 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING IN THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE...WHICH WILL CAUSE 1 TO 3 WAVES AND A LIGHT TO MODEST
CHOP ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN
SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1236 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL HAVING AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT THAT MADE IT ALL THE WAY UP INTO
CLINTON COUNTY NEW YORK DID PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND IS
NOW MOVING EAST INTO VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DISTINCT LAKE EFFECT
BAND WILL CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE
REMAINDER OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT
KSLK/KPBG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE BAND
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KRUT THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AFTER
00Z SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON ABATE BUT STAY RATHER BRISK AT 8-12KT OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NOTING SOME MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA WHICH WILL
MAKE A RUN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VERMONT. CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO
VFR APPROACHING 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1236 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL HAVING AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT THAT MADE IT ALL THE WAY UP INTO
CLINTON COUNTY NEW YORK DID PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND IS
NOW MOVING EAST INTO VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DISTINCT LAKE EFFECT
BAND WILL CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE
REMAINDER OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT
KSLK/KPBG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE BAND
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KRUT THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AFTER
00Z SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON ABATE BUT STAY RATHER BRISK AT 8-12KT OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NOTING SOME MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA WHICH WILL
MAKE A RUN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VERMONT. CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO
VFR APPROACHING 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1248 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1236 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL HAVING AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT THAT MADE IT ALL THE WAY UP INTO
CLINTON COUNTY NEW YORK DID PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND IS
NOW MOVING EAST INTO VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DISTINCT LAKE EFFECT
BAND WILL CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE
REMAINDER OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE.
WARMER AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID
40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS
SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT, A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE
PROFILES COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT
KSLK/KPBG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE BAND
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KRUT THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AFTER
00Z SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON ABATE BUT STAY RATHER BRISK AT 8-12KT OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NOTING SOME MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA WHICH WILL
MAKE A RUN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VERMONT. CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO
VFR APPROACHING 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1248 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1236 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL HAVING AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT THAT MADE IT ALL THE WAY UP INTO
CLINTON COUNTY NEW YORK DID PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND IS
NOW MOVING EAST INTO VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DISTINCT LAKE EFFECT
BAND WILL CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE
REMAINDER OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE.
WARMER AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID
40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS
SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT, A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE
PROFILES COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT
KSLK/KPBG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE BAND
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KRUT THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AFTER
00Z SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON ABATE BUT STAY RATHER BRISK AT 8-12KT OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NOTING SOME MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA WHICH WILL
MAKE A RUN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VERMONT. CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO
VFR APPROACHING 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1236 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1236 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL HAVING AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT THAT MADE IT ALL THE WAY UP INTO
CLINTON COUNTY NEW YORK DID PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND IS
NOW MOVING EAST INTO VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DISTINCT LAKE EFFECT
BAND WILL CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE
REMAINDER OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE.
WARMER AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID
40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS
SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT, A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE
PROFILES COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KSLK AND, AT TIMES, KMSS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A THREAT FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SNOW SHOWERS.

GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH EXPECTED AT 15-25KTS AS SUSTAINED
WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1236 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1236 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL HAVING AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT THAT MADE IT ALL THE WAY UP INTO
CLINTON COUNTY NEW YORK DID PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND IS
NOW MOVING EAST INTO VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DISTINCT LAKE EFFECT
BAND WILL CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE
REMAINDER OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE.
WARMER AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID
40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS
SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT, A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE
PROFILES COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KSLK AND, AT TIMES, KMSS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A THREAT FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SNOW SHOWERS.

GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH EXPECTED AT 15-25KTS AS SUSTAINED
WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201436
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
936 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 936 AM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST
SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE TWEAKS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS IMPACTING PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH REPORTS OF 6 INCHES ALREADY NEAR WEST
FOWLER NEW YORK AND 8 INCHES JUST NORTHWEST OF GOUVERNEUR NEW
YORK. LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES NEW YORK.
THUS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE
REMAINDER OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE.
WARMER AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID
40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS
SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT, A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE
PROFILES COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KSLK AND, AT TIMES, KMSS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A THREAT FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SNOW SHOWERS.

GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH EXPECTED AT 15-25KTS AS SUSTAINED
WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201436
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
936 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 936 AM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST
SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE TWEAKS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS IMPACTING PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH REPORTS OF 6 INCHES ALREADY NEAR WEST
FOWLER NEW YORK AND 8 INCHES JUST NORTHWEST OF GOUVERNEUR NEW
YORK. LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES NEW YORK.
THUS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE
REMAINDER OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE.
WARMER AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID
40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS
SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT, A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE
PROFILES COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KSLK AND, AT TIMES, KMSS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A THREAT FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SNOW SHOWERS.

GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH EXPECTED AT 15-25KTS AS SUSTAINED
WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201206
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR NOISE-LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND T/TD DATA TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT 11
UTC. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LAKE ONTARIO
SNOW BAND JUST STARTING TO GET GOING. INTERESTING DOUBLE-BANDED
STRUCTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WITH THE
SOUTHERN BAND EVOLVING FROM A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM FROM
DOWNWIND TRANSPORT OF THE INTENSE LAKE ERIE BAND. CAM OUTPUT
PREDICTING THIS NICELY...SHOWING THE ONTARIO FEATURE EVOLVING INTO
A SINGLE STRONGER BAND BY LATE MORNING. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH THE MAIN STORY ONCE
AGAIN BEING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND/ENE OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS ALL DUE TO WSW FLOW AHEAD OF A FAIRLY ROBUST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. INDEED...LATEST HI-RES/CAM OUTPUT REMARKABLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THE DEEP AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH ALONG WITH ROBUST LOW LEVEL LAKE CONVERGENCE AND
MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SNOW
BAND TO SET UP FROM WATERTOWN ENE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF ST LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES. AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PRIOR EVENT AND WITH THE FLOW SLOWLY VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE THE BAND WILL TEND TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THUS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WON`T BE
QUITE AS HEAVY AS MOST RECENT EVENT. THAT SAID STILL LOOKING AT
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT IN MOST FAVORED AREAS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE ST LAWRENCE/JEFF-LEWIS COUNTY LINE. WITH
SNOW BAND AIMED ENE...SCT/OCCNLL FLURRIES/SHSN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS BUT WITH FROUDE PROGS CLEARLY
SHOWING WELL- MIXED/UNBLOCKED FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL FOR THE
MOST PART BE SPECTATORS ONCE AGAIN AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW ACTS TO CREATE CLASSIC SHADOWING EFFECTS. HIGHS REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE... ESPECIALLY WITH MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS FROM 10
TO 20 MPH...MAINLY 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE REMAINDER
OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH FROUDE
NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR
SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME
WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND
FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY
ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MTN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE.
WARMER AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID
40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFORMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE
BEGINNNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS SECOND
MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT,  A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES
COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KSLK AND, AT TIMES, KMSS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A THREAT FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SNOW SHOWERS.

GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH EXPECTED AT 15-25KTS AS SUSTAINED
WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201206
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR NOISE-LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND T/TD DATA TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT 11
UTC. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LAKE ONTARIO
SNOW BAND JUST STARTING TO GET GOING. INTERESTING DOUBLE-BANDED
STRUCTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WITH THE
SOUTHERN BAND EVOLVING FROM A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM FROM
DOWNWIND TRANSPORT OF THE INTENSE LAKE ERIE BAND. CAM OUTPUT
PREDICTING THIS NICELY...SHOWING THE ONTARIO FEATURE EVOLVING INTO
A SINGLE STRONGER BAND BY LATE MORNING. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH THE MAIN STORY ONCE
AGAIN BEING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND/ENE OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS ALL DUE TO WSW FLOW AHEAD OF A FAIRLY ROBUST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. INDEED...LATEST HI-RES/CAM OUTPUT REMARKABLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THE DEEP AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH ALONG WITH ROBUST LOW LEVEL LAKE CONVERGENCE AND
MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SNOW
BAND TO SET UP FROM WATERTOWN ENE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF ST LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES. AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PRIOR EVENT AND WITH THE FLOW SLOWLY VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE THE BAND WILL TEND TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THUS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WON`T BE
QUITE AS HEAVY AS MOST RECENT EVENT. THAT SAID STILL LOOKING AT
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT IN MOST FAVORED AREAS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE ST LAWRENCE/JEFF-LEWIS COUNTY LINE. WITH
SNOW BAND AIMED ENE...SCT/OCCNLL FLURRIES/SHSN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS BUT WITH FROUDE PROGS CLEARLY
SHOWING WELL- MIXED/UNBLOCKED FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL FOR THE
MOST PART BE SPECTATORS ONCE AGAIN AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW ACTS TO CREATE CLASSIC SHADOWING EFFECTS. HIGHS REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE... ESPECIALLY WITH MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS FROM 10
TO 20 MPH...MAINLY 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE REMAINDER
OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH FROUDE
NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR
SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME
WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND
FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY
ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MTN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE.
WARMER AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID
40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFORMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE
BEGINNNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS SECOND
MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT,  A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES
COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KSLK AND, AT TIMES, KMSS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A THREAT FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SNOW SHOWERS.

GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH EXPECTED AT 15-25KTS AS SUSTAINED
WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR NOISE-LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND T/TD DATA TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT 11
UTC. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LAKE ONTARIO
SNOW BAND JUST STARTING TO GET GOING. INTERESTING DOUBLE-BANDED
STRUCTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WITH THE
SOUTHERN BAND EVOLVING FROM A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM FROM
DOWNWIND TRANSPORT OF THE INTENSE LAKE ERIE BAND. CAM OUTPUT
PREDICTING THIS NICELY...SHOWING THE ONTARIO FEATURE EVOLVING INTO
A SINGLE STRONGER BAND BY LATE MORNING. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH THE MAIN STORY ONCE
AGAIN BEING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND/ENE OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS ALL DUE TO WSW FLOW AHEAD OF A FAIRLY ROBUST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. INDEED...LATEST HI-RES/CAM OUTPUT REMARKABLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THE DEEP AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH ALONG WITH ROBUST LOW LEVEL LAKE CONVERGENCE AND
MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SNOW
BAND TO SET UP FROM WATERTOWN ENE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF ST LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES. AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PRIOR EVENT AND WITH THE FLOW SLOWLY VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE THE BAND WILL TEND TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THUS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WON`T BE
QUITE AS HEAVY AS MOST RECENT EVENT. THAT SAID STILL LOOKING AT
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT IN MOST FAVORED AREAS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE ST LAWRENCE/JEFF-LEWIS COUNTY LINE. WITH
SNOW BAND AIMED ENE...SCT/OCCNLL FLURRIES/SHSN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS BUT WITH FROUDE PROGS CLEARLY
SHOWING WELL- MIXED/UNBLOCKED FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL FOR THE
MOST PART BE SPECTATORS ONCE AGAIN AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW ACTS TO CREATE CLASSIC SHADOWING EFFECTS. HIGHS REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE... ESPECIALLY WITH MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS FROM 10
TO 20 MPH...MAINLY 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE REMAINDER
OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH FROUDE
NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR
SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME
WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND
FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY
ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MTN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNADY NIGH TINTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE. WARMER
AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID 40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFORMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE
BEGINNNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS SECOND
MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT,  A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES
COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KSLK AND, AT TIMES, KMSS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A THREAT FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SNOW SHOWERS.

GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH EXPECTED AT 15-25KTS AS SUSTAINED
WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR NOISE-LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND T/TD DATA TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT 11
UTC. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LAKE ONTARIO
SNOW BAND JUST STARTING TO GET GOING. INTERESTING DOUBLE-BANDED
STRUCTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WITH THE
SOUTHERN BAND EVOLVING FROM A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM FROM
DOWNWIND TRANSPORT OF THE INTENSE LAKE ERIE BAND. CAM OUTPUT
PREDICTING THIS NICELY...SHOWING THE ONTARIO FEATURE EVOLVING INTO
A SINGLE STRONGER BAND BY LATE MORNING. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH THE MAIN STORY ONCE
AGAIN BEING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND/ENE OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS ALL DUE TO WSW FLOW AHEAD OF A FAIRLY ROBUST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. INDEED...LATEST HI-RES/CAM OUTPUT REMARKABLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THE DEEP AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH ALONG WITH ROBUST LOW LEVEL LAKE CONVERGENCE AND
MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SNOW
BAND TO SET UP FROM WATERTOWN ENE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF ST LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES. AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PRIOR EVENT AND WITH THE FLOW SLOWLY VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE THE BAND WILL TEND TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THUS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WON`T BE
QUITE AS HEAVY AS MOST RECENT EVENT. THAT SAID STILL LOOKING AT
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT IN MOST FAVORED AREAS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE ST LAWRENCE/JEFF-LEWIS COUNTY LINE. WITH
SNOW BAND AIMED ENE...SCT/OCCNLL FLURRIES/SHSN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS BUT WITH FROUDE PROGS CLEARLY
SHOWING WELL- MIXED/UNBLOCKED FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL FOR THE
MOST PART BE SPECTATORS ONCE AGAIN AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW ACTS TO CREATE CLASSIC SHADOWING EFFECTS. HIGHS REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE... ESPECIALLY WITH MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS FROM 10
TO 20 MPH...MAINLY 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE REMAINDER
OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH FROUDE
NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR
SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME
WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND
FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY
ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MTN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNADY NIGH TINTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE. WARMER
AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID 40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFORMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE
BEGINNNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS SECOND
MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT,  A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES
COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KSLK AND, AT TIMES, KMSS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A THREAT FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SNOW SHOWERS.

GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH EXPECTED AT 15-25KTS AS SUSTAINED
WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR NOISE-LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND T/TD DATA TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT 11
UTC. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LAKE ONTARIO
SNOW BAND JUST STARTING TO GET GOING. INTERESTING DOUBLE-BANDED
STRUCTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WITH THE
SOUTHERN BAND EVOLVING FROM A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM FROM
DOWNWIND TRANSPORT OF THE INTENSE LAKE ERIE BAND. CAM OUTPUT
PREDICTING THIS NICELY...SHOWING THE ONTARIO FEATURE EVOLVING INTO
A SINGLE STRONGER BAND BY LATE MORNING. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH THE MAIN STORY ONCE
AGAIN BEING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND/ENE OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS ALL DUE TO WSW FLOW AHEAD OF A FAIRLY ROBUST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. INDEED...LATEST HI-RES/CAM OUTPUT REMARKABLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THE DEEP AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH ALONG WITH ROBUST LOW LEVEL LAKE CONVERGENCE AND
MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SNOW
BAND TO SET UP FROM WATERTOWN ENE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF ST LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES. AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PRIOR EVENT AND WITH THE FLOW SLOWLY VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE THE BAND WILL TEND TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THUS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WON`T BE
QUITE AS HEAVY AS MOST RECENT EVENT. THAT SAID STILL LOOKING AT
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT IN MOST FAVORED AREAS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE ST LAWRENCE/JEFF-LEWIS COUNTY LINE. WITH
SNOW BAND AIMED ENE...SCT/OCCNLL FLURRIES/SHSN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS BUT WITH FROUDE PROGS CLEARLY
SHOWING WELL- MIXED/UNBLOCKED FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL FOR THE
MOST PART BE SPECTATORS ONCE AGAIN AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW ACTS TO CREATE CLASSIC SHADOWING EFFECTS. HIGHS REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE... ESPECIALLY WITH MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS FROM 10
TO 20 MPH...MAINLY 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE REMAINDER
OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH FROUDE
NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR
SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME
WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND
FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY
ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MTN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNADY NIGH TINTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE. WARMER
AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID 40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFORMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE
BEGINNNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS SECOND
MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT,  A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES
COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK AS THEY WILL BE AFFECTED BY A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
WILL AFFECT KSLK AFTER 15Z...BUT STEADIER SNOWS REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 18Z WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. BEFORE WINDS MIX DOWN
IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT KBTV HAVING WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR NOISE-LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND T/TD DATA TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT 11
UTC. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LAKE ONTARIO
SNOW BAND JUST STARTING TO GET GOING. INTERESTING DOUBLE-BANDED
STRUCTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WITH THE
SOUTHERN BAND EVOLVING FROM A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM FROM
DOWNWIND TRANSPORT OF THE INTENSE LAKE ERIE BAND. CAM OUTPUT
PREDICTING THIS NICELY...SHOWING THE ONTARIO FEATURE EVOLVING INTO
A SINGLE STRONGER BAND BY LATE MORNING. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH THE MAIN STORY ONCE
AGAIN BEING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND/ENE OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS ALL DUE TO WSW FLOW AHEAD OF A FAIRLY ROBUST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. INDEED...LATEST HI-RES/CAM OUTPUT REMARKABLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THE DEEP AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH ALONG WITH ROBUST LOW LEVEL LAKE CONVERGENCE AND
MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SNOW
BAND TO SET UP FROM WATERTOWN ENE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF ST LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES. AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PRIOR EVENT AND WITH THE FLOW SLOWLY VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE THE BAND WILL TEND TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THUS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WON`T BE
QUITE AS HEAVY AS MOST RECENT EVENT. THAT SAID STILL LOOKING AT
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT IN MOST FAVORED AREAS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE ST LAWRENCE/JEFF-LEWIS COUNTY LINE. WITH
SNOW BAND AIMED ENE...SCT/OCCNLL FLURRIES/SHSN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS BUT WITH FROUDE PROGS CLEARLY
SHOWING WELL- MIXED/UNBLOCKED FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL FOR THE
MOST PART BE SPECTATORS ONCE AGAIN AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW ACTS TO CREATE CLASSIC SHADOWING EFFECTS. HIGHS REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE... ESPECIALLY WITH MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS FROM 10
TO 20 MPH...MAINLY 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE REMAINDER
OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH FROUDE
NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR
SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME
WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND
FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY
ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MTN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNADY NIGH TINTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE. WARMER
AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID 40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFORMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE
BEGINNNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS SECOND
MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT,  A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES
COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK AS THEY WILL BE AFFECTED BY A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
WILL AFFECT KSLK AFTER 15Z...BUT STEADIER SNOWS REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 18Z WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. BEFORE WINDS MIX DOWN
IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT KBTV HAVING WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200850
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
WITH THE MAIN STORY ONCE AGAIN BEING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DOWNWIND/ENE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS ALL DUE TO WSW FLOW AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY ROBUST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. INDEED...LATEST
HI-RES/CAM OUTPUT REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DEEP AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH ALONG WITH ROBUST
LOW LEVEL LAKE CONVERGENCE AND MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SNOW BAND TO SET UP FROM WATERTOWN ENE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES.
AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN PRIOR EVENT AND WITH THE FLOW
SLOWLY VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE THE
BAND WILL TEND TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THUS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WON`T BE QUITE AS HEAVY AS MOST RECENT
EVENT. THAT SAID STILL LOOKING AT LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 1 FOOT IN MOST FAVORED AREAS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE ST
LAWRENCE/JEFF-LEWIS COUNTY LINE. WITH SNOW BAND AIMED
ENE...SCT/OCCNLL FLURRIES/SHSN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREENS BUT WITH FROUDE PROGS CLEARLY SHOWING WELL-
MIXED/UNBLOCKED FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE
SPECTATORS ONCE AGAIN AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
ACTS TO CREATE CLASSIC SHADOWING EFFECTS. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE
CHILLY SIDE... ESPECIALLY WITH MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS FROM 10 TO 20
MPH...MAINLY 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE REMAINDER
OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH FROUDE
NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR
SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME
WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND
FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY
ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MTN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNADY NIGH TINTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE. WARMER
AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID 40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFORMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE
BEGINNNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS SECOND
MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT,  A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES
COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK AS THEY WILL BE AFFECTED BY A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
WILL AFFECT KSLK AFTER 15Z...BUT STEADIER SNOWS REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 18Z WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. BEFORE WINDS MIX DOWN
IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT KBTV HAVING WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 200850
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP
OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
WITH THE MAIN STORY ONCE AGAIN BEING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DOWNWIND/ENE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS ALL DUE TO WSW FLOW AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY ROBUST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. INDEED...LATEST
HI-RES/CAM OUTPUT REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DEEP AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH ALONG WITH ROBUST
LOW LEVEL LAKE CONVERGENCE AND MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SNOW BAND TO SET UP FROM WATERTOWN ENE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES.
AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN PRIOR EVENT AND WITH THE FLOW
SLOWLY VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE THE
BAND WILL TEND TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THUS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WON`T BE QUITE AS HEAVY AS MOST RECENT
EVENT. THAT SAID STILL LOOKING AT LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 1 FOOT IN MOST FAVORED AREAS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE ST
LAWRENCE/JEFF-LEWIS COUNTY LINE. WITH SNOW BAND AIMED
ENE...SCT/OCCNLL FLURRIES/SHSN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREENS BUT WITH FROUDE PROGS CLEARLY SHOWING WELL-
MIXED/UNBLOCKED FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE
SPECTATORS ONCE AGAIN AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
ACTS TO CREATE CLASSIC SHADOWING EFFECTS. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE
CHILLY SIDE... ESPECIALLY WITH MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS FROM 10 TO 20
MPH...MAINLY 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES
SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF
HEAVIER SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE REMAINDER
OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH FROUDE
NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR
SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME
WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND
FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY
ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD
REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MTN LOCALES.

SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL
SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO
DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD
STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE
IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE
DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE
OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT
THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT
HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNADY NIGH TINTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE. WARMER
AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID 40S-50S.

AFFECTS OF AFORMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE
BEGINNNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS SECOND
MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT,  A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES
COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK AS THEY WILL BE AFFECTED BY A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
WILL AFFECT KSLK AFTER 15Z...BUT STEADIER SNOWS REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 18Z WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. BEFORE WINDS MIX DOWN
IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT KBTV HAVING WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A
LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS
WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. THE COLD AIR WILL LIFT
OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 953 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AS PER COMPOSITE RADAR
MOSAIC...NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED IN THE FACE
OF SFC-800 MB LAYER OF DRY AIR AS APPARENT IN 00Z/20TH ALB RAOB.
THOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE UNDER WET-BULB
COOLING...LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BAND
WILL FURTHER DIMINISH AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. I`VE TRIMMED
POPS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT, KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK/ADIRONDACKS.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW THEN TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AS BEST WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS HELPING TO
ENHANCE ANOTHER INTENSE LAKE-EFFECT BAND ENTERING INTO THE
NORTHWEST BUFFALO NY AREA. EXPECT ONTARIO LAKE-EFFECT BAND TO RE-
IGNITE OVERNIGHT, INITIALLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER INTO TOWNS SUCH AS HAMMOND AND OGDENSBURG, AND THEN PIVOTING
EAST INTO THE MORE FAVORED LAKE-EFFECT TOWNS IN SOUTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. NO CHANGES TO LAKE-
EFFECT HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...I`VE JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY FORECAST
PARAMETERS MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW EVENT WILL
UNFOLD ON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELT WITH
POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORT NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF
FRANKLIN/NW CLINTON COUNTIES AS STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A HYBRID LAKE SNOW/SNOW
SQUALL EVENT BY LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR NRN
NY COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE SNOWBELT...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND
INT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AS WELL. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER WITH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. WINDS RATHER GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE LAKE SNOWS TO SINK SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW TOTAL IN THE CORE OF THE SNOW BAND LIKELY TO EXCEED 1
FOOT...WITH AS MUCH AS 15-20 INCHES IN THE MORE PERSISTENT BANDS.
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL OUTSIDE OF
THE BANDS AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WHICH COULD DEPOSIT A QUICK
1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.
ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY ON FRIDAY WITH ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ENDING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE OVER TIME ALONG WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO RETURN TO FAR
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY MORNING SLIDES EASTWARD OFF THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW
NORMAL AND SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OVERALL MOISTURE ISN`T TOO DEEP WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE SO NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY IS IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION COMBINED WITH DEEP CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY MID-DAY AND THE BTV CWA BECOMING ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE SO IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY NICE AFTERNOON.

LOOKS LIKE IT`LL BE DECENTLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WE
REMAIN IN THE DRY SLOT AWAITING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
DOESN`T LOOK TO COME UNTIL MAYBE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THAT
TIME...MOISTURE IS PRETTY WRUNG OUT SO NOT LOOKING AT VERY HIGH
POPS...WITH MAYBE JUST A FEW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. NOT
A VERY COLD FRONT EITHER AS TEMPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FALL BACK ONLY
TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S AND 40S
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK AS THEY WILL BE AFFECTED BY A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
WILL AFFECT KSLK AFTER 15Z...BUT STEADIER SNOWS REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 18Z WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. BEFORE WINDS MIX DOWN
IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT KBTV HAVING WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN WATERS AND IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE LAKE. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY BUT
MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER THURSDAY NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 200544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. THE COLD AIR WILL LIFT
OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 953 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AS PER COMPOSITE RADAR
MOSAIC...NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED IN THE FACE
OF SFC-800 MB LAYER OF DRY AIR AS APPARENT IN 00Z/20TH ALB RAOB.
THOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE UNDER WET-BULB
COOLING...LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BAND
WILL FURTHER DIMINISH AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. I`VE TRIMMED
POPS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT, KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK/ADIRONDACKS.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW THEN TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AS BEST WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS HELPING TO
ENHANCE ANOTHER INTENSE LAKE-EFFECT BAND ENTERING INTO THE
NORTHWEST BUFFALO NY AREA. EXPECT ONTARIO LAKE-EFFECT BAND TO RE-
IGNITE OVERNIGHT, INITIALLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER INTO TOWNS SUCH AS HAMMOND AND OGDENSBURG, AND THEN PIVOTING
EAST INTO THE MORE FAVORED LAKE-EFFECT TOWNS IN SOUTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. NO CHANGES TO LAKE-
EFFECT HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...I`VE JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY FORECAST
PARAMETERS MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW EVENT WILL
UNFOLD ON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELT WITH
POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORT NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF
FRANKLIN/NW CLINTON COUNTIES AS STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A HYBRID LAKE SNOW/SNOW
SQUALL EVENT BY LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR NRN
NY COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE SNOWBELT...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND
INT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AS WELL. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER WITH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. WINDS RATHER GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE LAKE SNOWS TO SINK SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW TOTAL IN THE CORE OF THE SNOW BAND LIKELY TO EXCEED 1
FOOT...WITH AS MUCH AS 15-20 INCHES IN THE MORE PERSISTENT BANDS.
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL OUTSIDE OF
THE BANDS AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WHICH COULD DEPOSIT A QUICK
1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.
ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY ON FRIDAY WITH ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ENDING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE OVER TIME ALONG WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO RETURN TO FAR
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY MORNING SLIDES EASTWARD OFF THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW
NORMAL AND SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OVERALL MOISTURE ISN`T TOO DEEP WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE SO NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY IS IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION COMBINED WITH DEEP CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY MID-DAY AND THE BTV CWA BECOMING ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE SO IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY NICE AFTERNOON.

LOOKS LIKE IT`LL BE DECENTLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WE
REMAIN IN THE DRY SLOT AWAITING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
DOESN`T LOOK TO COME UNTIL MAYBE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THAT
TIME...MOISTURE IS PRETTY WRUNG OUT SO NOT LOOKING AT VERY HIGH
POPS...WITH MAYBE JUST A FEW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. NOT
A VERY COLD FRONT EITHER AS TEMPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FALL BACK ONLY
TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S AND 40S
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK AS THEY WILL BE AFFECTED BY A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
WILL AFFECT KSLK AFTER 15Z...BUT STEADIER SNOWS REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 18Z WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. BEFORE WINDS MIX DOWN
IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT KBTV HAVING WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN WATERS AND IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE LAKE. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY BUT
MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER THURSDAY NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
953 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. THE COLD AIR WILL LIFT
OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 953 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AS PER COMPOSITE RADAR
MOSAIC...NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED IN THE FACE
OF SFC-800 MB LAYER OF DRY AIR AS APPARENT IN 00Z/20TH ALB RAOB.
THOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE UNDER WET-BULB
COOLING...LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BAND
WILL FURTHER DIMINISH AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. I`VE TRIMMED
POPS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT, KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK/ADIRONDACKS.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW THEN TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AS BEST WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS HELPING TO
ENHANCE ANOTHER INTENSE LAKE-EFFECT BAND ENTERING INTO THE
NORTHWEST BUFFALO NY AREA. EXPECT ONTARIO LAKE-EFFECT BAND TO RE-
IGNITE OVERNIGHT, INITIALLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER INTO TOWNS SUCH AS HAMMOND AND OGDENSBURG, AND THEN PIVOTING
EAST INTO THE MORE FAVORED LAKE-EFFECT TOWNS IN SOUTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. NO CHANGES TO LAKE-
EFFECT HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...I`VE JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY FORECAST
PARAMETERS MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW EVENT WILL
UNFOLD ON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELT WITH
POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORT NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF
FRANKLIN/NW CLINTON COUNTIES AS STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A HYBRID LAKE SNOW/SNOW
SQUALL EVENT BY LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR NRN
NY COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE SNOWBELT...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND
INT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AS WELL. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER WITH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. WINDS RATHER GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE LAKE SNOWS TO SINK SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW TOTAL IN THE CORE OF THE SNOW BAND LIKELY TO EXCEED 1
FOOT...WITH AS MUCH AS 15-20 INCHES IN THE MORE PERSISTENT BANDS.
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL OUTSIDE OF
THE BANDS AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WHICH COULD DEPOSIT A QUICK
1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.
ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY ON FRIDAY WITH ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ENDING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE OVER TIME ALONG WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO RETURN TO FAR
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY MORNING SLIDES EASTWARD OFF THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW
NORMAL AND SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OVERALL MOISTURE ISN`T TOO DEEP WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE SO NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY IS IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION COMBINED WITH DEEP CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY MID-DAY AND THE BTV CWA BECOMING ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE SO IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY NICE AFTERNOON.

LOOKS LIKE IT`LL BE DECENTLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WE
REMAIN IN THE DRY SLOT AWAITING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
DOESN`T LOOK TO COME UNTIL MAYBE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THAT
TIME...MOISTURE IS PRETTY WRUNG OUT SO NOT LOOKING AT VERY HIGH
POPS...WITH MAYBE JUST A FEW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. NOT
A VERY COLD FRONT EITHER AS TEMPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FALL BACK ONLY
TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S AND 40S
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK AS THEY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT KSLK AFTER 15Z...BUT
STEADIER SNOWS REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN AFTER 18Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...KMSS/KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT WILL SEEING CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT REMAINING IN THE VFR CATEGORY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW FLURRIES AND NOT IMPACT
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z
WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 06Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR ONGOING IFR AT KSLK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

06Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN WATERS AND IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE LAKE. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY BUT
MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER THURSDAY NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 200253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
953 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. THE COLD AIR WILL LIFT
OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 953 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AS PER COMPOSITE RADAR
MOSAIC...NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED IN THE FACE
OF SFC-800 MB LAYER OF DRY AIR AS APPARENT IN 00Z/20TH ALB RAOB.
THOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE UNDER WET-BULB
COOLING...LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BAND
WILL FURTHER DIMINISH AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. I`VE TRIMMED
POPS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT, KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK/ADIRONDACKS.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW THEN TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AS BEST WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS HELPING TO
ENHANCE ANOTHER INTENSE LAKE-EFFECT BAND ENTERING INTO THE
NORTHWEST BUFFALO NY AREA. EXPECT ONTARIO LAKE-EFFECT BAND TO RE-
IGNITE OVERNIGHT, INITIALLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER INTO TOWNS SUCH AS HAMMOND AND OGDENSBURG, AND THEN PIVOTING
EAST INTO THE MORE FAVORED LAKE-EFFECT TOWNS IN SOUTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. NO CHANGES TO LAKE-
EFFECT HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...I`VE JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY FORECAST
PARAMETERS MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW EVENT WILL
UNFOLD ON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELT WITH
POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORT NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF
FRANKLIN/NW CLINTON COUNTIES AS STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A HYBRID LAKE SNOW/SNOW
SQUALL EVENT BY LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR NRN
NY COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE SNOWBELT...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND
INT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AS WELL. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER WITH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. WINDS RATHER GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE LAKE SNOWS TO SINK SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW TOTAL IN THE CORE OF THE SNOW BAND LIKELY TO EXCEED 1
FOOT...WITH AS MUCH AS 15-20 INCHES IN THE MORE PERSISTENT BANDS.
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL OUTSIDE OF
THE BANDS AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WHICH COULD DEPOSIT A QUICK
1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.
ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY ON FRIDAY WITH ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ENDING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE OVER TIME ALONG WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO RETURN TO FAR
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY MORNING SLIDES EASTWARD OFF THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW
NORMAL AND SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OVERALL MOISTURE ISN`T TOO DEEP WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE SO NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY IS IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION COMBINED WITH DEEP CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY MID-DAY AND THE BTV CWA BECOMING ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE SO IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY NICE AFTERNOON.

LOOKS LIKE IT`LL BE DECENTLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WE
REMAIN IN THE DRY SLOT AWAITING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
DOESN`T LOOK TO COME UNTIL MAYBE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THAT
TIME...MOISTURE IS PRETTY WRUNG OUT SO NOT LOOKING AT VERY HIGH
POPS...WITH MAYBE JUST A FEW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. NOT
A VERY COLD FRONT EITHER AS TEMPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FALL BACK ONLY
TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S AND 40S
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK AS THEY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT KSLK AFTER 15Z...BUT
STEADIER SNOWS REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN AFTER 18Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...KMSS/KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT WILL SEEING CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT REMAINING IN THE VFR CATEGORY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW FLURRIES AND NOT IMPACT
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z
WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 06Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR ONGOING IFR AT KSLK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

06Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN WATERS AND IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE LAKE. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY BUT
MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER THURSDAY NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ029-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...MUCCILLI




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