000
FXUS61 KBTV 202354
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
754 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 702 PM EDT MONDAY...WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL BE WATCHING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR POTENTIAL THAT THEY MAY SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER INSTABILITY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWALTER INDICES
ARE PROJECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT OVERNIGHT WHICH OFFERS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IN THESE AREAS. HAVEN`T MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HAVE
JUST MATCHED WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.
A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A TREND FROM VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE LATER TONIGHT AND
DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AFTER 08Z. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR. WED- THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS
DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON
000
FXUS61 KBTV 202302
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
702 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 702 PM EDT MONDAY...WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL BE WATCHING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR POTENTIAL THAT THEY MAY SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER INSTABILITY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWALTER INDICES
ARE PROJECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT OVERNIGHT WHICH OFFERS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IN THESE AREAS. HAVEN`T MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HAVE
JUST MATCHED WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.
A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BREAKS OF VFR
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR SOME IFR
RETURNS EARLY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND MIST.
SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KSLK TO
KRUT COULD POP A SHOWER MOVING FROM NW TO SE, COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISLD -TSRA.
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MIST POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD EARLY MORNING WITH MVFR LCL IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TUE MORNING AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR.
WED-THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
000
FXUS61 KBTV 202026
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL
SEE MILD TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE
REGION WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT...SPREADING
FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND
MORE VORTICITY MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY
BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.
A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BREAKS OF VFR
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR SOME IFR
RETURNS EARLY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND MIST.
SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KSLK TO
KRUT COULD POP A SHOWER MOVING FROM NW TO SE, COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISLD -TSRA.
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MIST POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD EARLY MORNING WITH MVFR LCL IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TUE MORNING AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR.
WED-THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201955
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL
SEE MILD TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE
REGION WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT...SPREADING
FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND
MORE VORTICITY MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY
BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.
NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN
NY WHERE POPS ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
FURTHER REMOVED FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO
NH/MAINE. 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY...SO
CARRIED A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF
FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET
CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS THRU NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN
TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BREAKS OF VFR
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR SOME IFR
RETURNS EARLY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND MIST.
SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KSLK TO
KRUT COULD POP A SHOWER MOVING FROM NW TO SE, COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISLD -TSRA.
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MIST POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD EARLY MORNING WITH MVFR LCL IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TUE MORNING AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR.
WED-THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...SISSON
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201801
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUD CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH BREAKS IN THE LEE OR EAST SIDE OF ADKS
AND SRN GREENS. BREAKS LIKELY TO INCREASE GRADUALLY...BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE OVERALL
PICTURE THIS AFTN. FEW BREAKS IN SRN ZONES COULD LEAD TO LGT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ISLD TS AS COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FA. HAVE
INCLUDED SLGT CHC -SHRA AND TS OVER SRN ZONES THRU EARLY EVENING
HRS. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS
SKIES BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
CAPE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.
NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN
NY WHERE POPS ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
FURTHER REMOVED FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO
NH/MAINE. 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO
CARRIED A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF
FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET
CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS THRU NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN
TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BREAKS OF VFR
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR SOME IFR
RETURNS EARLY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND MIST.
SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KSLK TO
KRUT COULD POP A SHOWER MOVING FROM NW TO SE, COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISLD -TSRA.
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MIST POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD EARLY MORNING WITH MVFR LCL IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TUE MORNING AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR.
WED-THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...SISSON
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201723
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUD CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH BREAKS IN THE LEE OR EAST SIDE OF ADKS
AND SRN GREENS. BREAKS LIKELY TO INCREASE GRADUALLY...BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE OVERALL
PICTURE THIS AFTN. FEW BREAKS IN SRN ZONES COULD LEAD TO LGT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ISLD TS AS COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FA. HAVE
INCLUDED SLGT CHC -SHRA AND TS OVER SRN ZONES THRU EARLY EVENING
HRS. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS
SKIES BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
CAPE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.
NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN
NY WHERE POPS ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
FURTHER REMOVED FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO
NH/MAINE. 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO
CARRIED A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF
FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET
CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS THRU NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN
TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 16Z. AT KRUT...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO S-CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN. CEILINGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDING VFR THIS AFTN
AND THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF PRIMARILY VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS...WITH CIGS 1-2 KFT CURRENTLY AT RUT. CURRENTLY OVC008
AT SLK...AND THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ANOTHER
2-3 HOURS. THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14-15Z WITH
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN
15-18Z. WINDS INITIALLY SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN WITH TROUGH PASSAGE...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 5-7 KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT
BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TIME FRAME AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201508
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1108 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE
REGION...AND CURRENT TEMPS COOLER THAN FCST...HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING TO RADAR
TRENDS...MOSTLY DRYING...WITH UPSTREAM NW FLOW BRINGING IN SLGTLY
LOWER DWPTS. SO EXPECT GENERAL DRYING TREND TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS
SKIES BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
CAPE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY WITH MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +14-18C
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.
NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN
NY WHERE POPS ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
FURTHER REMOVED FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO
NH/MAINE. 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO
CARRIED A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF
FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET
CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS THRU NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN
TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 16Z. AT KRUT...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO S-CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN. CEILINGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDING VFR THIS AFTN
AND THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF PRIMARILY VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS...WITH CIGS 1-2 KFT CURRENTLY AT RUT. CURRENTLY OVC008
AT SLK...AND THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ANOTHER
2-3 HOURS. THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14-15Z WITH
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN
15-18Z. WINDS INITIALLY SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN WITH TROUGH PASSAGE...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 5-7 KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT
BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TIME FRAME AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201146
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 652 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT
SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE
TODAY WITH MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +14-18C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.
NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.
SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN NY WHERE POPS
ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT FURTHER REMOVED
FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO NH/MAINE. 00Z
GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO CARRIED A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT
INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH VALLEY
HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL AS IT
DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW BRINGS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP
AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 16Z. AT KRUT...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO S-CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN. CEILINGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDING VFR THIS AFTN
AND THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF PRIMARILY VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS...WITH CIGS 1-2 KFT CURRENTLY AT RUT. CURRENTLY OVC008 AT
SLK...AND THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS. THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14-15Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN 15-18Z.
WINDS INITIALLY SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN WITH TROUGH PASSAGE...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 5-7 KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT BKN060-100
WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE PERIODS
OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME FRAME
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201054
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 652 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT
SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE
TODAY WITH MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +14-18C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.
NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.
SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN NY WHERE POPS
ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT FURTHER REMOVED
FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO NH/MAINE. 00Z
GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO CARRIED A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT
INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH VALLEY
HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL AS IT
DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW BRINGS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP
AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS VT AT 05Z
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT.
ANTICIPATE THAT BULK OF THE REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE TAF SITES NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND ONLY CARRIED PREVAILING
-SHRA IN THE TAF AT MPV. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT
MPV/SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF FOG AT
MSS...THOUGH RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING VSBY AS LIGHT SW
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN 14-18Z
MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY S-SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10
KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT
WIND CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE PERIODS
OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME FRAME
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 200819
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS
SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
CAPE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY WITH MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +14-18C
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.
NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.
SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN NY WHERE POPS
ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT FURTHER REMOVED
FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO NH/MAINE. 00Z
GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO CARRIED A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT
INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH VALLEY
HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL AS IT
DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW BRINGS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP
AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS VT AT 05Z
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT.
ANTICIPATE THAT BULK OF THE REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE TAF SITES NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND ONLY CARRIED PREVAILING
-SHRA IN THE TAF AT MPV. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT
MPV/SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF FOG AT
MSS...THOUGH RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING VSBY AS LIGHT SW
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN 14-18Z
MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY S-SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10
KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT
WIND CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE PERIODS
OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME FRAME
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 200745
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A
DRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT BUT A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO INHERITED FORECAST
MAINLY TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS A LITTLE HOLE HAS OPENED IN THE CLOUDS. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND BRIEF LIGHT WINDS...THIS CLEARING HAS
ALLOWED FOR FOG FOG TO FORM AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER RETURNS. OTHERWISE...STILL
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC LOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY...PRODUCING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
HEADS SOUTH. LIFTED INDICES LESS THAN ZERO WILL ONLY REACH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MINIMAL CAPE VALUES. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SLGT CHC OF TS IN THE AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
NW FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP BETTER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SFC FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...AND 925MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID TEENS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L-U70S.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS...BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START MOSTLY DRY BUT SEE CHANCE POPS IN THE
AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS IN THE M60S-
M70S WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND LGT FLOW. AND MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.
NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.
SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN NY WHERE POPS
ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT FURTHER REMOVED
FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO NH/MAINE. 00Z
GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO CARRIED A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT
INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH VALLEY
HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL AS IT
DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW BRINGS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP
AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS VT AT 05Z
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT.
ANTICIPATE THAT BULK OF THE REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE TAF SITES NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND ONLY CARRIED PREVAILING
-SHRA IN THE TAF AT MPV. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT
MPV/SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF FOG AT
MSS...THOUGH RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING VSBY AS LIGHT SW
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN 14-18Z
MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY S-SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10
KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT
WIND CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE PERIODS
OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME FRAME
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 200538
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A
DRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT BUT A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO INHERITED FORECAST
MAINLY TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS A LITTLE HOLE HAS OPENED IN THE CLOUDS. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND BRIEF LIGHT WINDS...THIS CLEARING HAS
ALLOWED FOR FOG FOG TO FORM AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER RETURNS. OTHERWISE...STILL
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC LOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY...PRODUCING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
HEADS SOUTH. LIFTED INDICES LESS THAN ZERO WILL ONLY REACH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MINIMAL CAPE VALUES. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SLGT CHC OF TS IN THE AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
NW FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP BETTER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SFC FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...AND 925MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID TEENS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L-U70S.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS...BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START MOSTLY DRY BUT SEE CHANCE POPS IN THE
AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS IN THE M60S-
M70S WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND LGT FLOW. AND MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRANSITION FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA HANDLED WELL
AND DID NOT CHANGE FROM THIS THINKING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE. SHOULD SEE
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST. ONE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A
FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY...THE DAY OF THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
RACE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS VT AT 05Z
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT.
ANTICIPATE THAT BULK OF THE REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE TAF SITES NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND ONLY CARRIED PREVAILING
-SHRA IN THE TAF AT MPV. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT
MPV/SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF FOG AT
MSS...THOUGH RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING VSBY AS LIGHT SW
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN 14-18Z
MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY S-SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10
KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT
WIND CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE PERIODS
OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME FRAME
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 200448
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1248 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A
DRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT BUT A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO INHERITED FORECAST
MAINLY TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS A LITTLE HOLE HAS OPENED IN THE CLOUDS. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND BRIEF LIGHT WINDS...THIS CLEARING HAS
ALLOWED FOR FOG FOG TO FORM AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER RETURNS. OTHERWISE...STILL
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC LOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY...PRODUCING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
HEADS SOUTH. LIFTED INDICES LESS THAN ZERO WILL ONLY REACH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MINIMAL CAPE VALUES. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SLGT CHC OF TS IN THE AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
NW FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP BETTER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SFC FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...AND 925MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID TEENS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L-U70S.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS...BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START MOSTLY DRY BUT SEE CHANCE POPS IN THE
AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS IN THE M60S-
M70S WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND LGT FLOW. AND MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRANSITION FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA HANDLED WELL
AND DID NOT CHANGE FROM THIS THINKING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE. SHOULD SEE
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST. ONE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A
FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY...THE DAY OF THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
RACE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...HAVE TREATED CURRENT VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH P6SM -SHRA AS OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS AREN`T
RESULTING IN ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. LOOK FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY 03Z.
EXPECTING MAINLY BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...THOUGH HAVE TEMPO`D IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS 03-06Z AT RUT
AND MPV GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOWER CEILINGS THAT ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY
/BETWEEN 13-18Z/. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THE FRONT...BUT
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AT RUT AND MPV MAY TRIGGER SOME ISO/SCT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. HAVE INDICATED VCSH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL FROM 15Z ONWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH AT 5-10KTS BECOMING NORTHWEST /WEST-
NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL
BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
000
FXUS61 KBTV 200219
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A
DRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT BUT A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD SIDE OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW
HUNDRETHS EXPECTED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY FALL A
COUPLE DEGREES MORE UNDER OVERCAST AND INCREASING WARM- AIR
ADVECTION WITH LOWS NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BY MORNING AS A COOL
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM
ONTARIO/QUEBEC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC LOW BECOMES SLGTLY MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY...PRODUCING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
HEADS SOUTH. LIFTED INDICES LESS THAN ZERO WILL ONLY REACH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MINIMAL CAPE VALUES. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SLGT CHC OF TS IN THE AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
NW FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP BETTER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SFC FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...AND 925MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID TEENS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L-U70S.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS...BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START MOSTLY DRY BUT SEE CHANCE POPS IN THE
AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS IN THE M60S-
M70S WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND LGT FLOW. AND MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRANSITION FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA HANDLED WELL
AND DID NOT CHANGE FROM THIS THINKING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE. SHOULD SEE
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST. ONE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A
FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY...THE DAY OF THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
RACE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...HAVE TREATED CURRENT VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH P6SM -SHRA AS OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS AREN`T
RESULTING IN ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. LOOK FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY 03Z.
EXPECTING MAINLY BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...THOUGH HAVE TEMPO`D IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS 03-06Z AT RUT
AND MPV GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOWER CEILINGS THAT ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY
/BETWEEN 13-18Z/. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THE FRONT...BUT
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AT RUT AND MPV MAY TRIGGER SOME ISO/SCT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. HAVE INDICATED VCSH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL FROM 15Z ONWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH AT 5-10KTS BECOMING NORTHWEST /WEST-
NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL
BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
000
FXUS61 KBTV 192328
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A
DRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT BUT A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 728 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THIS UPDATE I MADE SOME RELATIVELY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOWERING WIND GUSTS.
RADAR ECHOES SHOWN ON COMPOSITE RADAR ARE SAMPLING JUST THE
OVERCAST SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. BASED ON
ASOS OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE ONLY
AMOUNTED TO A FEW HUNDRETHS...WHICH SPEAKS TO HOW LIGHT THE
PRECIPITATION REALLY IS. THE RADAR ECHOES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE SFC-850 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR OTTAWA SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NYC METRO AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ONE THING THESE SHOWERS HAVE DONE IS TO
STOP MIXING OF GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A 20-30KT LOW- LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...WITH LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOMING MORE ISOTHERMAL
WITH TIME HAVE OPTED TO LOWER WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO FALL VERY MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC LOW BECOMES SLGTLY MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY...PRODUCING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
HEADS SOUTH. LIFTED INDICES LESS THAN ZERO WILL ONLY REACH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MINIMAL CAPE VALUES. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SLGT CHC OF TS IN THE AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
NW FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP BETTER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SFC FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...AND 925MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID TEENS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L-U70S.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS...BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START MOSTLY DRY BUT SEE CHANCE POPS IN THE
AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS IN THE M60S-
M70S WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND LGT FLOW. AND MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRANSITION FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA HANDLED WELL
AND DID NOT CHANGE FROM THIS THINKING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE. SHOULD SEE
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST. ONE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A
FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY...THE DAY OF THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
RACE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...HAVE TREATED CURRENT VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH P6SM -SHRA AS OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS AREN`T
RESULTING IN ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. LOOK FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY 03Z.
EXPECTING MAINLY BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...THOUGH HAVE TEMPO`D IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS 03-06Z AT RUT
AND MPV GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOWER CEILINGS THAT ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY
/BETWEEN 13-18Z/. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THE FRONT...BUT
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AT RUT AND MPV MAY TRIGGER SOME ISO/SCT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. HAVE INDICATED VCSH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL FROM 15Z ONWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH AT 5-10KTS BECOMING NORTHWEST /WEST-
NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL
BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AND AT THE SFC...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL UP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...PRODUCING
WINDS OF 17-27 KTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KBTV 192033
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A
DRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT BUT A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...SLGT CHC FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY...STREAMING IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT THE SFC WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...CHANNELING UP THE CPV
AS LLJ OF 20-30 KTS RESIDES OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20KTS AND
GUSTS PSBL OF 20-30 KTS. WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY WILL KEEP SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT
DECREASING IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD.
CLOUDY SKIES...DEWPTS IN THE 40S AND 50S...SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND
RIDGING/WARMING ALOFT WILL KEEP SFC TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH...WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 9C- 11C. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE
M40S-U50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC LOW BECOMES SLGTLY MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY...PRODUCING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
HEADS SOUTH. LIFTED INDICES LESS THAN ZERO WILL ONLY REACH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MINIMAL CAPE VALUES. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SLGT CHC OF TS IN THE AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
NW FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP BETTER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SFC FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...AND 925MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID TEENS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L-U70S.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS...BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START MOSTLY DRY BUT SEE CHANCE POPS IN THE
AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS IN THE M60S-
M70S WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND LGT FLOW. AND MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRANSITION FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA HANDLED WELL
AND DID NOT CHANGE FROM THIS THINKING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE. SHOULD SEE
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST. ONE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A
FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY...THE DAY OF THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
RACE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH A
SLIGHT TREND TOWARD MVFR CEILINGS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT
KRUT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT ANTICIPATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AND AT THE SFC...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL UP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...PRODUCING
WINDS OF 17-27 KTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
MARINE...KGM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 191744
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 134 PM EDT SUNDAY...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE
POURING IN FROM THE NW...WITH REFLECTIVITIES INDICATING MORE
CLOUDS THAN ACTUAL PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. CLOUDS GENERALLY
AT 4K-6K FEET. WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH...CHANNELING
DOWN THE CPV REACHING 10-15KTS AND GUSTS OF 15-20KTS CONTINUING
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS/HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC RIDING OVER THE
CREST OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD EASTWARD THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH COVER
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED AS WELL ON
UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THIS NOT TO REACH THE
BTV CWA...BUT SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS TODAY ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR ACCORDINGLY...ALBEIT A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ALSO...EXPECT
TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS A
MODEST SOUTHERLY 925MB JET OF 25-35KTS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH...LOCALLY HIGHER AROUND AND ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS THOUGH EXPECT OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO BE FAIRLY DRY. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE
WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY IN THE LOW
60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY THE
FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT STALLS ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND
RETREATS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A QUASI-BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING AND OFFER A DRIER
SCENARIO THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH A
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SHUNTING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
FARTHER NORTH OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY
LOWERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
MONDAY WITH THE CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT SUNDAY...RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS
E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS/NEAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY. BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
INDICATE SFC-850MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LIFTING NEWD AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED S-SW WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S (WARMEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). ON
WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL EMERGE INTO THE
CYCLONE WARM SECTOR WITH BROAD/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT.
AIR MASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE MILD; 00Z ECMWF SHOWING
850MB TEMPS OF +14 TO +15C. QUESTION WILL BE AMT OF SUNSHINE IN
WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT.
HAVE ADJUSTED ABOVE MEX-MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
70S...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPS COULD BE CLOSER TO 80F FOR
AFTN HIGHS. AIR MASS MAY ALSO BECOME MARGINAL UNSTABLE...SO
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE WELL-
ORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW TSTMS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (POPS 30-50 PERCENT). TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARD TO THIS EVOLUTION...SO MOST
CONCENTRATED TIME FOR ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IS NOT KNOWN. SHOULD
TREND COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPR 60S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH A
SLIGHT TREND TOWARD MVFR CEILINGS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT
KRUT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT ANTICIPATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...EVENSON/BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 191734
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 134 PM EDT SUNDAY...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE
POURING IN FROM THE NW...WITH REFLECTIVITIES INDICATING MORE
CLOUDS THAN ACTUAL PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. CLOUDS GENERALLY
AT 4K-6K FEET. WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH...CHANNELING
DOWN THE CPV REACHING 10-15KTS AND GUSTS OF 15-20KTS CONTINUING
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS/HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC RIDING OVER THE
CREST OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD EASTWARD THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH COVER
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED AS WELL ON
UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THIS NOT TO REACH THE
BTV CWA...BUT SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS TODAY ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR ACCORDINGLY...ALBEIT A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ALSO...EXPECT
TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS A
MODEST SOUTHERLY 925MB JET OF 25-35KTS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH...LOCALLY HIGHER AROUND AND ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS THOUGH EXPECT OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO BE FAIRLY DRY. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE
WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY IN THE LOW
60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY THE
FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT STALLS ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND
RETREATS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A QUASI-BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING AND OFFER A DRIER
SCENARIO THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH A
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SHUNTING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
FARTHER NORTH OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY
LOWERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
MONDAY WITH THE CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT SUNDAY...RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS
E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS/NEAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY. BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
INDICATE SFC-850MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LIFTING NEWD AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED S-SW WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S (WARMEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). ON
WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL EMERGE INTO THE
CYCLONE WARM SECTOR WITH BROAD/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT.
AIR MASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE MILD; 00Z ECMWF SHOWING
850MB TEMPS OF +14 TO +15C. QUESTION WILL BE AMT OF SUNSHINE IN
WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT.
HAVE ADJUSTED ABOVE MEX-MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
70S...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPS COULD BE CLOSER TO 80F FOR
AFTN HIGHS. AIR MASS MAY ALSO BECOME MARGINAL UNSTABLE...SO
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE WELL-
ORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW TSTMS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (POPS 30-50 PERCENT). TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARD TO THIS EVOLUTION...SO MOST
CONCENTRATED TIME FOR ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IS NOT KNOWN. SHOULD
TREND COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPR 60S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY 8-10 KFT. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL BRING WINDS AT THE TAF SITES AROUND TO
SOUTH...AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS 20-24 KTS AT BTV BETWEEN 15-23Z.
BEFORE 14Z...WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND PASSAGE OF A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KSLK/KMPV DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT EXPLICIT
INCLUSION IN THE TAF/S ATTM.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT ANTICIPATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 191437
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOME RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE MOVES
EWD INTO THE SLV AND WRN ADKS...BUT MOST AREAS NOT REPORTING
PRECIP. ANY SITES THAT HAVE REPORTED PRECIP HAVE ONLY BEEN LGT.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLGT CHC OF -SHRA GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD
TODAY...REMEMBERING THAT RIDING ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP LGT AND
SCT AT BEST. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS/HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC RIDING OVER THE
CREST OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD EASTWARD THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH COVER
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED AS WELL ON
UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THIS NOT TO REACH THE
BTV CWA...BUT SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS TODAY ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR ACCORDINGLY...ALBEIT A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ALSO...EXPECT
TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS A
MODEST SOUTHERLY 925MB JET OF 25-35KTS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH...LOCALLY HIGHER AROUND AND ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS THOUGH EXPECT OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO BE FAIRLY DRY. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE
WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY IN THE LOW
60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY THE
FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT STALLS ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND
RETREATS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A QUASI-BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING AND OFFER A DRIER
SCENARIO THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH A
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SHUNTING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
FARTHER NORTH OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY
LOWERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
MONDAY WITH THE CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT SUNDAY...RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS
E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS/NEAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY. BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
INDICATE SFC-850MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LIFTING NEWD AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED S-SW WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S (WARMEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). ON
WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL EMERGE INTO THE
CYCLONE WARM SECTOR WITH BROAD/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT.
AIR MASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE MILD; 00Z ECMWF SHOWING
850MB TEMPS OF +14 TO +15C. QUESTION WILL BE AMT OF SUNSHINE IN
WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT.
HAVE ADJUSTED ABOVE MEX-MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
70S...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPS COULD BE CLOSER TO 80F FOR
AFTN HIGHS. AIR MASS MAY ALSO BECOME MARGINAL UNSTABLE...SO
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE WELL-
ORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW TSTMS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (POPS 30-50 PERCENT). TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARD TO THIS EVOLUTION...SO MOST
CONCENTRATED TIME FOR ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IS NOT KNOWN. SHOULD
TREND COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPR 60S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY 8-10 KFT. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL BRING WINDS AT THE TAF SITES AROUND TO
SOUTH...AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS 20-24 KTS AT BTV BETWEEN 15-23Z.
BEFORE 14Z...WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND PASSAGE OF A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KSLK/KMPV DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT EXPLICIT
INCLUSION IN THE TAF/S ATTM.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT ANTICIPATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 191142
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT SUNDAY...A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS/HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO RISE AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH DECAYED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC RIDING OVER THE CREST OF AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER LEAVING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH COVER THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED AS WELL ON UPSTREAM CANADIAN
RADAR BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THIS NOT TO REACH THE BTV CWA...BUT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS TODAY ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY SO HIGHS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR ACCORDINGLY...ALBEIT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS A MODEST SOUTHERLY 925MB JET OF
25-35KTS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME GUST UPWARDS OF 25 MPH...LOCALLY
HIGHER AROUND AND ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS THOUGH EXPECT OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO BE FAIRLY DRY. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE
WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY IN THE LOW
60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY THE
FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT STALLS ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND
RETREATS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A QUASI-BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING AND OFFER A DRIER
SCENARIO THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH A
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SHUNTING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
FARTHER NORTH OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY
LOWERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
MONDAY WITH THE CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT SUNDAY...RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS
E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS/NEAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY. BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
INDICATE SFC-850MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LIFTING NEWD AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED S-SW WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S (WARMEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). ON
WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL EMERGE INTO THE
CYCLONE WARM SECTOR WITH BROAD/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT.
AIR MASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE MILD; 00Z ECMWF SHOWING
850MB TEMPS OF +14 TO +15C. QUESTION WILL BE AMT OF SUNSHINE IN
WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT.
HAVE ADJUSTED ABOVE MEX-MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
70S...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPS COULD BE CLOSER TO 80F FOR
AFTN HIGHS. AIR MASS MAY ALSO BECOME MARGINAL UNSTABLE...SO
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE WELL-
ORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW TSTMS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (POPS 30-50 PERCENT). TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARD TO THIS EVOLUTION...SO MOST
CONCENTRATED TIME FOR ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IS NOT KNOWN. SHOULD
TREND COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPR 60S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY 8-10 KFT. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL BRING WINDS AT THE TAF SITES AROUND TO
SOUTH...AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS 20-24 KTS AT BTV BETWEEN 15-23Z.
BEFORE 14Z...WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND PASSAGE OF A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KSLK/KMPV DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT EXPLICIT
INCLUSION IN THE TAF/S ATTM.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT ANTICIPATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 191104
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
704 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT SUNDAY...A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS/HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO RISE AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH DECAYED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC RIDING OVER THE CREST OF AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER LEAVING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH COVER THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED AS WELL ON UPSTREAM CANADIAN
RADAR BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THIS NOT TO REACH THE BTV CWA...BUT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS TODAY ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY SO HIGHS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR ACCORDINGLY...ALBEIT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS A MODEST SOUTHERLY 925MB JET OF
25-35KTS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME GUST UPWARDS OF 25 MPH...LOCALLY
HIGHER AROUND AND ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS THOUGH EXPECT OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO BE FAIRLY DRY. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE
WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY IN THE LOW
60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY THE
FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT STALLS ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND
RETREATS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A QUASI-BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING AND OFFER A DRIER
SCENARIO THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH A
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SHUNTING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
FARTHER NORTH OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY
LOWERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
MONDAY WITH THE CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT SUNDAY...RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS
E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS/NEAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY. BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
INDICATE SFC-850MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LIFTING NEWD AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED S-SW WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S (WARMEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). ON
WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL EMERGE INTO THE
CYCLONE WARM SECTOR WITH BROAD/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT.
AIR MASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE MILD; 00Z ECMWF SHOWING
850MB TEMPS OF +14 TO +15C. QUESTION WILL BE AMT OF SUNSHINE IN
WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT.
HAVE ADJUSTED ABOVE MEX-MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
70S...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPS COULD BE CLOSER TO 80F FOR
AFTN HIGHS. AIR MASS MAY ALSO BECOME MARGINAL UNSTABLE...SO
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE WELL-
ORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW TSTMS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (POPS 30-50 PERCENT). TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARD TO THIS EVOLUTION...SO MOST
CONCENTRATED TIME FOR ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IS NOT KNOWN. SHOULD
TREND COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPR 60S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY AOB 10 KFT. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL BRING OUR WINDS AROUND TO SOUTH...AND COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS 20-24 KTS AT BTV BETWEEN 14-23Z. BEFORE 14Z...WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
KTS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KSLK DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT ANTICIPATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 190842
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT SUNDAY...A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS/HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO RISE AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO RIDING OVER THE CREST OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
WEST. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH COVER THROUGH THE DAY...AND JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS. MEAN
925-850MB TEMPS TODAY ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY SO
HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR ACCORDINGLY...ALBEIT A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS A MODEST SOUTHERLY 925MB
JET OF 25-35KTS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME GUST UPWARDS OF 25 MPH...LOCALLY
HIGHER AROUND AND ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS THOUGH EXPECT OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO BE FAIRLY DRY. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE
WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY IN THE LOW
60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY THE
FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT STALLS ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND
RETREATS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A QUASI-BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING AND OFFER A DRIER
SCENARIO THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH A
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SHUNTING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
FARTHER NORTH OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY
LOWERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
MONDAY WITH THE CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT SUNDAY...RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS
E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS/NEAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY. BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
INDICATE SFC-850MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LIFTING NEWD AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED S-SW WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S (WARMEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). ON
WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL EMERGE INTO THE
CYCLONE WARM SECTOR WITH BROAD/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT.
AIR MASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE MILD; 00Z ECMWF SHOWING
850MB TEMPS OF +14 TO +15C. QUESTION WILL BE AMT OF SUNSHINE IN
WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT.
HAVE ADJUSTED ABOVE MEX-MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
70S...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPS COULD BE CLOSER TO 80F FOR
AFTN HIGHS. AIR MASS MAY ALSO BECOME MARGINAL UNSTABLE...SO
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE WELL-
ORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW TSTMS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (POPS 30-50 PERCENT). TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARD TO THIS EVOLUTION...SO MOST
CONCENTRATED TIME FOR ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IS NOT KNOWN. SHOULD
TREND COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPR 60S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY AOB 10 KFT. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL BRING OUR WINDS AROUND TO SOUTH...AND COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS 20-24 KTS AT BTV BETWEEN 14-23Z. BEFORE 14Z...WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
KTS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KSLK DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT ANTICIPATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 190808
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY LEADING TO A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1228 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INHERITED FORECAST TO
INCREASE SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
TOM MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STABILIZE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND MAYBE FALL A DEGREE OR TWO MORE
ACROSS VERMONT BEFORE STABILIZING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. SHOULD
END UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...WE START TO GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO WARM TO AROUND +7C. GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION
FROM TWO MAIN SOURCES ON SUNDAY: (1) INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND (2) CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADJACENT TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THINK BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE OVERDONE THROUGH SUNDAY AS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS CAPPED AND WEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE CRESTING
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANY DEBRIS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. THINK
ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
TODAY...THOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUDS. BROUGHT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT WITH THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY STAYING CLOUDY BUT
DRY. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +9 TO +10C BY 12Z MONDAY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON
MONDAY...STALLING LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
CONVECTIVE INDICES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE /LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO AS LOW
AS -2/. HAVE PUT IN CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. WHERE THAT BOUNDARY STALLS OUT WILL
DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND HAVE SHOWN TAPERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FROM CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE WITH HIGH CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT SUNDAY...RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS
E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS/NEAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY. BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
INDICATE SFC-850MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LIFTING NEWD AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED S-SW WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S (WARMEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). ON
WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL EMERGE INTO THE
CYCLONE WARM SECTOR WITH BROAD/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT.
AIR MASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE MILD; 00Z ECMWF SHOWING
850MB TEMPS OF +14 TO +15C. QUESTION WILL BE AMT OF SUNSHINE IN
WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT.
HAVE ADJUSTED ABOVE MEX-MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
70S...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPS COULD BE CLOSER TO 80F FOR
AFTN HIGHS. AIR MASS MAY ALSO BECOME MARGINAL UNSTABLE...SO
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE WELL-
ORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW TSTMS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (POPS 30-50 PERCENT). TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARD TO THIS EVOLUTION...SO MOST
CONCENTRATED TIME FOR ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IS NOT KNOWN. SHOULD
TREND COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPR 60S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY AOB 10 KFT. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL BRING OUR WINDS AROUND TO SOUTH...AND COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS 20-24 KTS AT BTV BETWEEN 14-23Z. BEFORE 14Z...WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
KTS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KSLK DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT ANTICIPATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 190512
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY LEADING TO A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1228 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INHERITED FORECAST TO
INCREASE SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
TOM MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STABILIZE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND MAYBE FALL A DEGREE OR TWO MORE
ACROSS VERMONT BEFORE STABILIZING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. SHOULD
END UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...WE START TO GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO WARM TO AROUND +7C. GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION
FROM TWO MAIN SOURCES ON SUNDAY: (1) INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND (2) CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADJACENT TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THINK BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE OVERDONE THROUGH SUNDAY AS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS CAPPED AND WEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE CRESTING
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANY DEBRIS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. THINK
ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
TODAY...THOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUDS. BROUGHT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT WITH THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY STAYING CLOUDY BUT
DRY. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +9 TO +10C BY 12Z MONDAY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON
MONDAY...STALLING LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
CONVECTIVE INDICES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE /LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO AS LOW
AS -2/. HAVE PUT IN CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. WHERE THAT BOUNDARY STALLS OUT WILL
DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND HAVE SHOWN TAPERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FROM CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE WITH HIGH CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY ACTIVE ROLE
IN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SO BOUNDARY WILL NOT PUSH TO FAR SOUTH. THUS STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EVENTUALLY FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND THE AIR MASS CHANGES OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY AOB 10 KFT. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL BRING OUR WINDS AROUND TO SOUTH...AND COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS 20-24 KTS AT BTV BETWEEN 14-23Z. BEFORE 14Z...WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
KTS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KSLK DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT ANTICIPATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 190428
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1228 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY LEADING TO A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1228 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INHERITED FORECAST TO
INCREASE SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
TOM MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STABILIZE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND MAYBE FALL A DEGREE OR TWO MORE
ACROSS VERMONT BEFORE STABILIZING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. SHOULD
END UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...WE START TO GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO WARM TO AROUND +7C. GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION
FROM TWO MAIN SOURCES ON SUNDAY: (1) INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND (2) CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADJACENT TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THINK BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE OVERDONE THROUGH SUNDAY AS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS CAPPED AND WEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE CRESTING
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANY DEBRIS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. THINK
ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
TODAY...THOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUDS. BROUGHT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT WITH THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY STAYING CLOUDY BUT
DRY. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +9 TO +10C BY 12Z MONDAY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON
MONDAY...STALLING LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
CONVECTIVE INDICES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE /LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO AS LOW
AS -2/. HAVE PUT IN CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. WHERE THAT BOUNDARY STALLS OUT WILL
DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND HAVE SHOWN TAPERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FROM CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE WITH HIGH CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY ACTIVE ROLE
IN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SO BOUNDARY WILL NOT PUSH TO FAR SOUTH. THUS STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EVENTUALLY FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND THE AIR MASS CHANGES OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BR TONIGHT AT MPV...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE GIVEN DRIER LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
MOST SITES WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER A BRIEF RAIN SPRINKLE OR EVEN
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT EXPECTED
MINIMAL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT BTV/PBG.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
UNCERTAINITIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT ANTICIPATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
000
FXUS61 KBTV 190226
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1026 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY LEADING TO A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EDT SATURDAY...WITH THIS UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED
CLDS/TEMPS FOR AREA FROM LATEST OBS. MID/HIGH CLD COVER OVER W
NY/SE ONTARIO WILL SHIFT OVER PORTIONS OF N NY TNGT AND MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH CLDS TO SLOW DROP IN TEMPS. SO HAVE INCREASED
OVERNGT LOWS BY ALMOST A DEGREE ACROSS N NY AND ADDED IN MORE CLDS
TO ACCT FOR MID/HIGH CLD DRIFT. VEIL SHOULD BE THIN AND ONLY
PROVIDE PCLDY CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CUMULUS STREETS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A GREATER
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM UNTIL
SUNSET. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES. WHILE THIS SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID SFC
COOLING EARLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +4C
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM/NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 IN
THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...WE START TO GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO WARM TO AROUND +7C. GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION
FROM TWO MAIN SOURCES ON SUNDAY: (1) INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND (2) CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADJACENT TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THINK BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE OVERDONE THROUGH SUNDAY AS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS CAPPED AND WEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE CRESTING
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANY DEBRIS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. THINK
ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
TODAY...THOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUDS. BROUGHT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT WITH THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY STAYING CLOUDY BUT
DRY. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +9 TO +10C BY 12Z MONDAY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON
MONDAY...STALLING LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
CONVECTIVE INDICES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE /LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO AS LOW
AS -2/. HAVE PUT IN CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. WHERE THAT BOUNDARY STALLS OUT WILL
DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND HAVE SHOWN TAPERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FROM CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE WITH HIGH CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY ACTIVE ROLE
IN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SO BOUNDARY WILL NOT PUSH TO FAR SOUTH. THUS STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EVENTUALLY FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND THE AIR MASS CHANGES OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BR TONIGHT AT MPV...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE GIVEN DRIER LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
MOST SITES WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER A BRIEF RAIN SPRINKLE OR EVEN
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT EXPECTED
MINIMAL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT BTV/PBG.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
UNCERTAINITIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT ANTICIPATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...JN/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
000
FXUS61 KBTV 182339
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY LEADING TO A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WX
PARAMETERS BASED ON LATEST INFO OVER THE LAST 3-HR PERIOD...
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK ATTM. PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLDS MVG
THRU THE CWA ATTM. TREND FOR CLRING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
INTO THE OVERNGT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CUMULUS STREETS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A GREATER
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM UNTIL
SUNSET. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES. WHILE THIS SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID SFC
COOLING EARLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +4C
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM/NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 IN
THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...WE START TO GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO WARM TO AROUND +7C. GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION
FROM TWO MAIN SOURCES ON SUNDAY: (1) INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND (2) CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADJACENT TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THINK BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE OVERDONE THROUGH SUNDAY AS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS CAPPED AND WEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE CRESTING
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANY DEBRIS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. THINK
ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
TODAY...THOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUDS. BROUGHT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT WITH THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY STAYING CLOUDY BUT
DRY. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +9 TO +10C BY 12Z MONDAY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON
MONDAY...STALLING LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
CONVECTIVE INDICES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE /LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO AS LOW
AS -2/. HAVE PUT IN CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. WHERE THAT BOUNDARY STALLS OUT WILL
DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND HAVE SHOWN TAPERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FROM CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE WITH HIGH CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY ACTIVE ROLE
IN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SO BOUNDARY WILL NOT PUSH TO FAR SOUTH. THUS STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EVENTUALLY FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND THE AIR MASS CHANGES OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BR TONIGHT AT MPV...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE GIVEN DRIER LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
MOST SITES WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER A BRIEF RAIN SPRINKLE OR EVEN
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT EXPECTED
MINIMAL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT BTV/PBG.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
UNCERTAINITIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT ANTICIPATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...JN/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
000
FXUS61 KBTV 182318
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY LEADING TO A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WX
PARAMETERS BASED ON LATEST INFO OVER THE LAST 3-HR PERIOD...
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK ATTM. PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLDS MVG
THRU THE CWA ATTM. TREND FOR CLRING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
INTO THE OVERNGT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CUMULUS STREETS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A GREATER
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM UNTIL
SUNSET. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES. WHILE THIS SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID SFC
COOLING EARLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +4C
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM/NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 IN
THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...WE START TO GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO WARM TO AROUND +7C. GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION
FROM TWO MAIN SOURCES ON SUNDAY: (1) INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND (2) CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADJACENT TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THINK BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE OVERDONE THROUGH SUNDAY AS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS CAPPED AND WEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE CRESTING
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANY DEBRIS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. THINK
ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
TODAY...THOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUDS. BROUGHT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT WITH THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY STAYING CLOUDY BUT
DRY. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +9 TO +10C BY 12Z MONDAY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON
MONDAY...STALLING LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
CONVECTIVE INDICES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE /LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO AS LOW
AS -2/. HAVE PUT IN CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. WHERE THAT BOUNDARY STALLS OUT WILL
DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND HAVE SHOWN TAPERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FROM CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE WITH HIGH CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY ACTIVE ROLE
IN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SO BOUNDARY WILL NOT PUSH TO FAR SOUTH. THUS STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EVENTUALLY FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND THE AIR MASS CHANGES OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KMPV DUE TO FOG BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS DEVELOPING AT THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC EVENTUALLY
BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL APPEAR
TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...JN/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181934
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
334 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY LEADING TO A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CUMULUS STREETS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A GREATER
COVERAGE OF DIRUNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM UNTIL
SUNSET. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES. WHILE THIS SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID SFC
COOLING EARLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +4C
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM/NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 IN
THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...WE START TO GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO WARM TO AROUND +7C. GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION
FROM TWO MAIN SOURCES ON SUNDAY: (1) INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND (2) CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADJACENT TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THINK BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE OVERDONE THROUGH SUNDAY AS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS CAPPED AND WEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE CRESTING
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANY DEBRIS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. THINK
ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
TODAY...THOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUDS. BROUGHT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEAST KINDGOM ON SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT WITH THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY STAYING CLOUDY BUT
DRY. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +9 TO +10C BY 12Z MONDAY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON
MONDAY...STALLING LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
CONVECTIVE INDICES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE /LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO AS LOW
AS -2/. HAVE PUT IN CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. WHERE THAT BOUNDARY STALLS OUT WILL
DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND HAVE SHOWN TAPERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FROM CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE WITH HIGH CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY ACTIVE ROLE
IN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SO BOUNDARY WILL NOT PUSH TO FAR SOUTH. THUS STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EVENTUALLY FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND THE AIR MASS CHANGES OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KMPV DUE TO FOG BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS DEVELOPING AT THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC EVENTUALLY
BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL APPEAR
TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181726
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA AND PERSIST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EDT SATURDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. STILL A FEW MORE HOURS LEFT OF
SUNSHINE SO HAVE ADJUSTED MAXES UP A COUPLE DEGREES FURTHER TO THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S. ALSO CHANGED THE WORDING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO COVER THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINE. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM GIVEN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD GRAZING THE BORDER OF NORTHEAST VT/NH LATE IN
THE DAY. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWNWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT ALLOWING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE BTV CWA...AND THUS EXPECTING A
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S TO LOCALLY NEAR 50 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE BUT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD SPARK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS...THOUGH MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROBABLY NOT REALLY AMOUNTING TO
MUCH. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MIGHT NOT EVEN BREAK 60. FOR MONDAY...UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THOUGH...AND
WITH INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WE COULD AGAIN
SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMING TREND ALSO
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GOING A FEW MORE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOCALLY NEAR
80 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INVOLVES A SLOW SWD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE TUE-WED FOLLOWED
BY THE APPROACH OF A CLOSED UPR LOW THU-FRI THAT SUGGESTS TIMING
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IN EXPECTED WX CONDITIONS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM SERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC IN
CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONTAL ZONE SAGS ON WEDNESDAY; WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WEDNESDAY COULD BE DRIER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO RECONCILE AT THIS POINT. HAVE
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS BUT LEFT MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LESS MOIST CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONT. UPSTREAM CLOSED UPR LOW/VORT MAX EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WITH ESTABLISHMENT OF MOIST SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE BRINGING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURSDAY AFTN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF UPR LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY LOW 60S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KMPV DUE TO FOG BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS DEVELOPING AT THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC EVENTUALLY
BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL APPEAR
TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...EVENSON/BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181657
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA AND PERSIST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EDT SATURDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. STILL A FEW MORE HOURS LEFT OF
SUNSHINE SO HAVE ADJUSTED MAXES UP A COUPLE DEGREES FURTHER TO THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S. ALSO CHANGED THE WORDING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO COVER THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINE. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM GIVEN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD GRAZING THE BORDER OF NORTHEAST VT/NH LATE IN
THE DAY. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWNWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT ALLOWING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE BTV CWA...AND THUS EXPECTING A
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S TO LOCALLY NEAR 50 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE BUT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD SPARK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS...THOUGH MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROBABLY NOT REALLY AMOUNTING TO
MUCH. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MIGHT NOT EVEN BREAK 60. FOR MONDAY...UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THOUGH...AND
WITH INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WE COULD AGAIN
SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMING TREND ALSO
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GOING A FEW MORE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOCALLY NEAR
80 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INVOLVES A SLOW SWD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE TUE-WED FOLLOWED
BY THE APPROACH OF A CLOSED UPR LOW THU-FRI THAT SUGGESTS TIMING
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IN EXPECTED WX CONDITIONS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM SERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC IN
CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONTAL ZONE SAGS ON WEDNESDAY; WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WEDNESDAY COULD BE DRIER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO RECONCILE AT THIS POINT. HAVE
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS BUT LEFT MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LESS MOIST CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONT. UPSTREAM CLOSED UPR LOW/VORT MAX EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WITH ESTABLISHMENT OF MOIST SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE BRINGING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURSDAY AFTN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF UPR LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY LOW 60S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING AND SCATTERED FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY EARLY AM VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
13Z...AND HAS ALREADY DONE SO AT MPV/MSS WHERE THERE WAS BRIEF FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS
CONTROLLED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS DEVELOPING AT THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC EVENTUALLY
BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL APPEAR
TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181355
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA AND PERSIST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT SATURDAY...ASIDE FROM BLENDING IN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...HAVE ONLY TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE.
STRONG INSOLATION IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S THUS FAR...AND CONTINUED SUNSHINE AND WARMING
925/850 MB THERMAL PROFILES WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO THE LOW/MID 70S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE
CORNER OF VT/NH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT RISING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS TODAY WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TODAY EXCEPT A TAD HIGHER LOCALLY ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE
TO THE LAKE BREEZE.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT FOLLOWS...
A PRETTY NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THOUGH AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS PARKED OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH ONLY AS FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY GRAZES THE CWA BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED.
MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +10C BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT ALLOWING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE BTV CWA...AND THUS EXPECTING A
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S TO LOCALLY NEAR 50 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE BUT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD SPARK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS...THOUGH MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROBABLY NOT REALLY AMOUNTING TO
MUCH. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MIGHT NOT EVEN BREAK 60. FOR MONDAY...UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THOUGH...AND
WITH INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WE COULD AGAIN
SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMING TREND ALSO
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GOING A FEW MORE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOCALLY NEAR
80 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INVOLVES A SLOW SWD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE TUE-WED FOLLOWED
BY THE APPROACH OF A CLOSED UPR LOW THU-FRI THAT SUGGESTS TIMING
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IN EXPECTED WX CONDITIONS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM SERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC IN
CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONTAL ZONE SAGS ON WEDNESDAY; WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WEDNESDAY COULD BE DRIER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO RECONCILE AT THIS POINT. HAVE
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS BUT LEFT MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LESS MOIST CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONT. UPSTREAM CLOSED UPR LOW/VORT MAX EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WITH ESTABLISHMENT OF MOIST SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE BRINGING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURSDAY AFTN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF UPR LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY LOW 60S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING AND SCATTERED FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY EARLY AM VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
13Z...AND HAS ALREADY DONE SO AT MPV/MSS WHERE THERE WAS BRIEF FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS
CONTROLLED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS DEVELOPING AT THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC EVENTUALLY
BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL APPEAR
TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181116
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA AND PERSIST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EDT SATURDAY...A PRETTY NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THOUGH AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS PARKED
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH ONLY AS FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY GRAZES THE CWA BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +10C BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT ALLOWING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE BTV CWA...AND THUS EXPECTING A
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S TO LOCALLY NEAR 50 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE BUT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD SPARK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS...THOUGH MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROBABLY NOT REALLY AMOUNTING TO
MUCH. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MIGHT NOT EVEN BREAK 60. FOR MONDAY...UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THOUGH...AND
WITH INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WE COULD AGAIN
SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMING TREND ALSO
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GOING A FEW MORE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOCALLY NEAR
80 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INVOLVES A SLOW SWD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE TUE-WED FOLLOWED
BY THE APPROACH OF A CLOSED UPR LOW THU-FRI THAT SUGGESTS TIMING
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IN EXPECTED WX CONDITIONS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM SERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC IN
CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONTAL ZONE SAGS ON WEDNESDAY; WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WEDNESDAY COULD BE DRIER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO RECONCILE AT THIS POINT. HAVE
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS BUT LEFT MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LESS MOIST CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONT. UPSTREAM CLOSED UPR LOW/VORT MAX EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WITH ESTABLISHMENT OF MOIST SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE BRINGING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURSDAY AFTN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF UPR LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY LOW 60S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING AND SCATTERED FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY EARLY AM VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
13Z...AND HAS ALREADY DONE SO AT MPV/MSS WHERE THERE WAS BRIEF FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS
CONTROLLED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS DEVELOPING AT THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC EVENTUALLY
BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL APPEAR
TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181034
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA AND PERSIST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EDT SATURDAY...A PRETTY NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THOUGH AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS PARKED
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH ONLY AS FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY GRAZES THE CWA BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +10C BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT ALLOWING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE BTV CWA...AND THUS EXPECTING A
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S TO LOCALLY NEAR 50 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE BUT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD SPARK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS...THOUGH MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROBABLY NOT REALLY AMOUNTING TO
MUCH. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MIGHT NOT EVEN BREAK 60. FOR MONDAY...UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THOUGH...AND
WITH INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WE COULD AGAIN
SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMING TREND ALSO
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GOING A FEW MORE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOCALLY NEAR
80 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INVOLVES A SLOW SWD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE TUE-WED FOLLOWED
BY THE APPROACH OF A CLOSED UPR LOW THU-FRI THAT SUGGESTS TIMING
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IN EXPECTED WX CONDITIONS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM SERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC IN
CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONTAL ZONE SAGS ON WEDNESDAY; WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WEDNESDAY COULD BE DRIER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO RECONCILE AT THIS POINT. HAVE
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS BUT LEFT MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LESS MOIST CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONT. UPSTREAM CLOSED UPR LOW/VORT MAX EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WITH ESTABLISHMENT OF MOIST SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE BRINGING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURSDAY AFTN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF UPR LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY LOW 60S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING JUST SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF BRIEF RADIATIONAL
FOG AT KSLK FROM 07-11Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS DEVELOPING AT THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC EVENTUALLY
BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL APPEAR
TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 180751
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA AND PERSIST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...A PRETTY NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THOUGH AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS PARKED
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH ONLY AS FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO
AROUND +10C BY THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT ALLOWING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE BTV CWA...AND THUS EXPECTING A
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S TO LOCALLY NEAR 50 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE BUT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD SPARK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS...THOUGH MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROBABLY NOT REALLY AMOUNTING TO
MUCH. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MIGHT NOT EVEN BREAK 60. FOR MONDAY...UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THOUGH...AND
WITH INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WE COULD AGAIN
SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMING TREND ALSO
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GOING A FEW MORE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOCALLY NEAR
80 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INVOLVES A SLOW SWD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE TUE-WED FOLLOWED
BY THE APPROACH OF A CLOSED UPR LOW THU-FRI THAT SUGGESTS TIMING
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IN EXPECTED WX CONDITIONS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM SERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC IN
CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONTAL ZONE SAGS ON WEDNESDAY; WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WEDNESDAY COULD BE DRIER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO RECONCILE AT THIS POINT. HAVE
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS BUT LEFT MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LESS MOIST CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONT. UPSTREAM CLOSED UPR LOW/VORT MAX EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WITH ESTABLISHMENT OF MOIST SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE BRINGING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURSDAY AFTN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF UPR LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY LOW 60S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING JUST SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF BRIEF RADIATIONAL
FOG AT KSLK FROM 07-11Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS DEVELOPING AT THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC EVENTUALLY
BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL APPEAR
TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 180724
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
324 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA AND PERSIST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EDT SATURDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL DEALING WITH
SOME PESKY CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT...WHICH
WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LIMITING
TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR BELOW 40. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO
THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT
IN NO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY. THERE IS A
LITTLE RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY...BUT NO FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS A
BIT WEAK. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING OVER PARTS OF OUR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO ANY SORT OF INSTABILITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INVOLVES A SLOW SWD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE TUE-WED FOLLOWED
BY THE APPROACH OF A CLOSED UPR LOW THU-FRI THAT SUGGESTS TIMING
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IN EXPECTED WX CONDITIONS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM SERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC IN
CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONTAL ZONE SAGS ON WEDNESDAY; WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WEDNESDAY COULD BE DRIER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO RECONCILE AT THIS POINT. HAVE
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS BUT LEFT MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LESS MOIST CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONT. UPSTREAM CLOSED UPR LOW/VORT MAX EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WITH ESTABLISHMENT OF MOIST SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE BRINGING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURSDAY AFTN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF UPR LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY LOW 60S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING JUST SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF BRIEF RADIATIONAL
FOG AT KSLK FROM 07-11Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS DEVELOPING AT THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC EVENTUALLY
BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL APPEAR
TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 180524
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA AND PERSIST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EDT SATURDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL DEALING WITH
SOME PESKY CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT...WHICH
WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LIMITING
TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR BELOW 40. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO
THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT
IN NO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY. THERE IS A
LITTLE RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY...BUT NO FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS A
BIT WEAK. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING OVER PARTS OF OUR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO ANY SORT OF INSTABILITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. STILL ANTICIPATING A COMPLEX MID/UPPER
LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NE/EASTERN CONUS WITH TROF ACRS EASTERN
CANADA...DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE SE...AND CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS WL CREATE A FAST WESTERLY FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH EMBEDDED VORTS EJECTING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS VORTS WL RIDE ALONG A SFC
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO
SNE/NE CONUS THRU THE PERIOD. THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN TEMPS/INSTABILITY/POPS AND PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIEST QPF. GFS/ECMWF CONT TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARDS TO BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRES
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FOR TUES
THRU THURS. THE HIGHEST CHC POPS WOULD BE TUES...AS COLD FRNT
DROPS SOUTH...THEN AGAIN ON THURS. STILL SOME QUESTION WITH
REGARDS TO AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...BUT SOME INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ON TUES...WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. HAVE
MENTION SCHC FOR THUNDER. OTHERWISE...TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
MONDAY THRU THURS ACRS OUR CWA...WL MAKE TEMP FCST TRICKY. IF WE
PUSH WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY/TUES...TEMPS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRNT COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S...GIVEN PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 14C. BUT IF BOUNDARY GETS HUNG
UP...AND MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP LINGER...THAN HIGHS WOULD ONLY BE IN
THE 60S. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE U40S TO NEAR 60F THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING JUST SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF BRIEF RADIATIONAL
FOG AT KSLK FROM 07-11Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS DEVELOPING AT THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC EVENTUALLY
BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL APPEAR
TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 180433
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA AND PERSIST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EDT SATURDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL DEALING WITH
SOME PESKY CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT...WHICH
WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LIMITING
TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR BELOW 40. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO
THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT
IN NO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY. THERE IS A
LITTLE RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY...BUT NO FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS A
BIT WEAK. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING OVER PARTS OF OUR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO ANY SORT OF INSTABILITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. STILL ANTICIPATING A COMPLEX MID/UPPER
LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NE/EASTERN CONUS WITH TROF ACRS EASTERN
CANADA...DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE SE...AND CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS WL CREATE A FAST WESTERLY FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH EMBEDDED VORTS EJECTING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS VORTS WL RIDE ALONG A SFC
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO
SNE/NE CONUS THRU THE PERIOD. THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN TEMPS/INSTABILITY/POPS AND PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIEST QPF. GFS/ECMWF CONT TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARDS TO BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRES
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FOR TUES
THRU THURS. THE HIGHEST CHC POPS WOULD BE TUES...AS COLD FRNT
DROPS SOUTH...THEN AGAIN ON THURS. STILL SOME QUESTION WITH
REGARDS TO AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...BUT SOME INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ON TUES...WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. HAVE
MENTION SCHC FOR THUNDER. OTHERWISE...TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
MONDAY THRU THURS ACRS OUR CWA...WL MAKE TEMP FCST TRICKY. IF WE
PUSH WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY/TUES...TEMPS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRNT COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S...GIVEN PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 14C. BUT IF BOUNDARY GETS HUNG
UP...AND MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP LINGER...THAN HIGHS WOULD ONLY BE IN
THE 60S. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE U40S TO NEAR 60F THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS ATOP THE REGION. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS
DOMINATED BY SLOPE/VALLEY FLOW TONIGHT AND LAKE BREEZES AND/OR
TERRAIN-INFLUENCED FLOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS P-GRADIENT REMAINS
VERY LIGHT. ANY SCT/BKN CIGS FROM 070-090 KFT EARLY THIS EVENING
TO TREND SKC OVERNIGHT...THEN SKC TOMORROW WITH PERHAPS SOME
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CUMULUS AT VT TERMINALS AFTER 15Z.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR FROM 18Z THRU TUESDAY...WITH CHCS INCREASING FOR SHOWERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY ON TUES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...A SPRINKLE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRNT WL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/TABER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 180213
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1013 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA AND PERSIST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1007 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS IS LEADING TO THE SLACKENING OF
WINDS AND GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS. HOWEVER STILL SEEING SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUDS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
VERMONT. GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THESE MAY LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD STILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 30S TO LOW 40S...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST AREAS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS...BUT THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
YET BEGUN THERE. COULD SEE A FEW PATCHY AREAS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VERMONT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO
THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT
IN NO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY. THERE IS A
LITTLE RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY...BUT NO FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS A
BIT WEAK. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING OVER PARTS OF OUR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO ANY SORT OF INSTABILITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. STILL ANTICIPATING A COMPLEX MID/UPPER
LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NE/EASTERN CONUS WITH TROF ACRS EASTERN
CANADA...DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE SE...AND CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS WL CREATE A FAST WESTERLY FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH EMBEDDED VORTS EJECTING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS VORTS WL RIDE ALONG A SFC
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO
SNE/NE CONUS THRU THE PERIOD. THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN TEMPS/INSTABILITY/POPS AND PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIEST QPF. GFS/ECMWF CONT TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARDS TO BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRES
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FOR TUES
THRU THURS. THE HIGHEST CHC POPS WOULD BE TUES...AS COLD FRNT
DROPS SOUTH...THEN AGAIN ON THURS. STILL SOME QUESTION WITH
REGARDS TO AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...BUT SOME INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ON TUES...WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. HAVE
MENTION SCHC FOR THUNDER. OTHERWISE...TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
MONDAY THRU THURS ACRS OUR CWA...WL MAKE TEMP FCST TRICKY. IF WE
PUSH WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY/TUES...TEMPS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRNT COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S...GIVEN PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 14C. BUT IF BOUNDARY GETS HUNG
UP...AND MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP LINGER...THAN HIGHS WOULD ONLY BE IN
THE 60S. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE U40S TO NEAR 60F THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS ATOP THE REGION. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS
DOMINATED BY SLOPE/VALLEY FLOW TONIGHT AND LAKE BREEZES AND/OR
TERRAIN-INFLUENCED FLOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS P-GRADIENT REMAINS
VERY LIGHT. ANY SCT/BKN CIGS FROM 070-090 KFT EARLY THIS EVENING
TO TREND SKC OVERNIGHT...THEN SKC TOMORROW WITH PERHAPS SOME
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CUMULUS AT VT TERMINALS AFTER 15Z.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR FROM 18Z THRU TUESDAY...WITH CHCS INCREASING FOR SHOWERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY ON TUES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...A SPRINKLE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRNT WL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/TABER
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