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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221438
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER AND HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
TO BLEND INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNEDSAY...VLIFR FOG AT SLK BURNS OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. A FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLE
AT MPV AND SLK NEAR TERRAIN BUT OTHERWISE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
LARGELY SUPPRESSES CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD
OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANY RAIN/T-STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER. MIST/FOG UNLIKELY TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PROGGED 10-15 KT BL WINDS. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
UNDER 10 KTS (INITIALLY SE AT PBG THIS MORNING FROM LAKE BREEZE).

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST MPV AND
SLK...OTHERWISE VFR.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO









000
FXUS61 KBTV 221438
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER AND HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
TO BLEND INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNEDSAY...VLIFR FOG AT SLK BURNS OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. A FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLE
AT MPV AND SLK NEAR TERRAIN BUT OTHERWISE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
LARGELY SUPPRESSES CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD
OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANY RAIN/T-STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER. MIST/FOG UNLIKELY TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PROGGED 10-15 KT BL WINDS. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
UNDER 10 KTS (INITIALLY SE AT PBG THIS MORNING FROM LAKE BREEZE).

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST MPV AND
SLK...OTHERWISE VFR.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO BLEND
INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNEDSAY...VLIFR FOG AT SLK BURNS OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. A FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLE
AT MPV AND SLK NEAR TERRAIN BUT OTHERWISE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
LARGELY SUPPRESSES CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD
OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANY RAIN/T-STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER. MIST/FOG UNLIKELY TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PROGGED 10-15 KT BL WINDS. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
UNDER 10 KTS (INITIALLY SE AT PBG THIS MORNING FROM LAKE BREEZE).

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST MPV AND
SLK...OTHERWISE VFR.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO













000
FXUS61 KBTV 221122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO BLEND
INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNEDSAY...VLIFR FOG AT SLK BURNS OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. A FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLE
AT MPV AND SLK NEAR TERRAIN BUT OTHERWISE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
LARGELY SUPPRESSES CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD
OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANY RAIN/T-STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER. MIST/FOG UNLIKELY TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PROGGED 10-15 KT BL WINDS. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
UNDER 10 KTS (INITIALLY SE AT PBG THIS MORNING FROM LAKE BREEZE).

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST MPV AND
SLK...OTHERWISE VFR.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO














000
FXUS61 KBTV 221118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO BLEND
INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO BLEND
INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.
WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO










000
FXUS61 KBTV 220757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.
WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO









000
FXUS61 KBTV 220730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.
WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.
WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT MONDAY...LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS DISSIPATING AT 0230Z ACROSS WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND MAY BRING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
STRATOCU/CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 59-65F...WARMEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTROLLED
BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES...AND LOCALLY REMAINING SOUTH AROUND
5-7 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO









000
FXUS61 KBTV 220526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT MONDAY...LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS DISSIPATING AT 0230Z ACROSS WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND MAY BRING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
STRATOCU/CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 59-65F...WARMEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTROLLED
BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES...AND LOCALLY REMAINING SOUTH AROUND
5-7 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220240
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT MONDAY...LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS DISSIPATING AT 0230Z ACROSS WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND MAY BRING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
STRATOCU/CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 59-65F...WARMEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTROLLED
BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES...AND LOCALLY REMAINING SOUTH AROUND
5-7 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220240
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT MONDAY...LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS DISSIPATING AT 0230Z ACROSS WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND MAY BRING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
STRATOCU/CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 59-65F...WARMEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTROLLED
BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES...AND LOCALLY REMAINING SOUTH AROUND
5-7 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS...WHICH DEVELOPED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH
ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS BY 01Z. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT. OTHERWISE...RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AND CIRRUS CLOUDS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 58-64F...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS...WHICH DEVELOPED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH
ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS BY 01Z. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT. OTHERWISE...RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AND CIRRUS CLOUDS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 58-64F...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE SLOWER WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...SO
SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM 11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME...AS THESE STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS
TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF










000
FXUS61 KBTV 212019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE SLOWER WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...SO
SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM 11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME...AS THESE STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS
TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 134 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 134 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 134 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON 06Z GFS MOS AND THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. BEST
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS
AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS
MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL
CLOUDS ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON 06Z GFS MOS AND THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. BEST
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS
AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS
MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL
CLOUDS ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON 06Z GFS MOS AND THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. BEST
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS
AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS
MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL
CLOUDS ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID
LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH 00Z THEN TRENDING CLEAR. WINDS
LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS AND GOVERNED HEAVILY BY LAKE BREEZES
AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT SHOWER OR AN
ISOLATED T-STORM WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DURING THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM
THE FORECAST ATTM HOWEVER. AFTER 06Z TUE SOME HINTS OF PATCHY
BR/IFR AT KMPV/KSLK IN THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE BUT WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS WHEN CONFIDENCE LEVELS CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. EARLY
INDICATIONS THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOD/SVR TURBULENCE AND GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS MOSTLY
CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID
LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH 00Z THEN TRENDING CLEAR. WINDS
LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS AND GOVERNED HEAVILY BY LAKE BREEZES
AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT SHOWER OR AN
ISOLATED T-STORM WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DURING THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM
THE FORECAST ATTM HOWEVER. AFTER 06Z TUE SOME HINTS OF PATCHY
BR/IFR AT KMPV/KSLK IN THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE BUT WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS WHEN CONFIDENCE LEVELS CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. EARLY
INDICATIONS THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOD/SVR TURBULENCE AND GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS MOSTLY
CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID
LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH 00Z THEN TRENDING CLEAR. WINDS
LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS AND GOVERNED HEAVILY BY LAKE BREEZES
AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT SHOWER OR AN
ISOLATED T-STORM WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DURING THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM
THE FORECAST ATTM HOWEVER. AFTER 06Z TUE SOME HINTS OF PATCHY
BR/IFR AT KMPV/KSLK IN THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE BUT WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS WHEN CONFIDENCE LEVELS CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. EARLY
INDICATIONS THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOD/SVR TURBULENCE AND GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS MOSTLY
CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/RJS










000
FXUS61 KBTV 211118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS MOSTLY
CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/RJS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 210753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY
FLW ALOFT ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE
ACRS NORTHERN NY AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST
ENOUGH MID LVL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION
LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND
SLV. SFC INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400
J/KG...SO THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEYS WL STAY RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER
DEGREE OR SO TODAY WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER
VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/RJS











000
FXUS61 KBTV 210740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE
SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING
LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION.
ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE
SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING
LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION.
ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE
SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING
LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION.
ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG/RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE
SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING
LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION.
ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG/RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210514
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE
SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING
LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION.
ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM
08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 210514
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE
SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING
LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION.
ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM
08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS










000
FXUS61 KBTV 210217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. MOST OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. EXPECT DRY NIGHT WITH LGT TO
CALM WINDS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. MID LVL CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE IN COVER...BUT MAY NOT FULLY ABATE AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM
08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. MOST OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. EXPECT DRY NIGHT WITH LGT TO
CALM WINDS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. MID LVL CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE IN COVER...BUT MAY NOT FULLY ABATE AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM
08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 202340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN ADKS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WANING DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO
DIMINISHING...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LVL WEAK WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH LGT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM
08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN ADKS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WANING DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO
DIMINISHING...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LVL WEAK WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH LGT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM
08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 202245
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN ADKS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WANING DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO
DIMINISHING...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LVL WEAK WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH LGT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTL0OK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 202245
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN ADKS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WANING DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO
DIMINISHING...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LVL WEAK WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH LGT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTL0OK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202006
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP NOT SHOWING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL
MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF
EASTERN...NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT...AS WELL AS IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG TO FORM
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTL0OK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 202006
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP NOT SHOWING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL
MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF
EASTERN...NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT...AS WELL AS IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG TO FORM
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTL0OK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF










000
FXUS61 KBTV 201855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
255 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TREND ON RADAR HAS BEEN FOR
THESE WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER... WILL
JUST KEEP UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE SOMETHING POPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TREND ON RADAR HAS BEEN FOR
THESE WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER... WILL
JUST KEEP UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE SOMETHING POPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO
06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO
2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TREND ON RADAR HAS BEEN FOR
THESE WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER... WILL
JUST KEEP UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE SOMETHING POPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO
06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO
2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF










000
FXUS61 KBTV 201729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT
THIS TIME AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THESE AREAS
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 732 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER. SOME NOTICEABLE HOLES IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT QUICKER. OTHERWISE... WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT
CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND
AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO
06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO
2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT
THIS TIME AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THESE AREAS
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 732 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER. SOME NOTICEABLE HOLES IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT QUICKER. OTHERWISE... WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT
CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND
AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO
06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO
2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT
THIS TIME AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THESE AREAS
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 732 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER. SOME NOTICEABLE HOLES IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT QUICKER. OTHERWISE... WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT
CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND
AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO
06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO
2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
5H TROF...UNDER CUTTING HIGH PRES. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PASS BY OUR TAF SITES WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE AT RUTLAND AND MSS BTWN 14Z-18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LVL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE INFLUENCE AT PBG FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WL BE BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS SE AT RUTLAND AROUND 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE NOTED A LLVL JET OFF THE LATEST RAP OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ONLY 200 TO 400 FEET AGL...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS WL BE
TRICKY AS SFC MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE WITH DWPT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE L60S POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF
TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT
THIS TIME AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THESE AREAS
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 732 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER. SOME NOTICEABLE HOLES IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT QUICKER. OTHERWISE... WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT
CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND
AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO
06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO
2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
5H TROF...UNDER CUTTING HIGH PRES. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PASS BY OUR TAF SITES WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE AT RUTLAND AND MSS BTWN 14Z-18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LVL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE INFLUENCE AT PBG FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WL BE BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS SE AT RUTLAND AROUND 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE NOTED A LLVL JET OFF THE LATEST RAP OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ONLY 200 TO 400 FEET AGL...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS WL BE
TRICKY AS SFC MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE WITH DWPT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE L60S POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF
TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 732 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST
SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER.
SOME NOTICEABLE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING
A BIT QUICKER. OTHERWISE... WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO
06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO
2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
5H TROF...UNDER CUTTING HIGH PRES. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PASS BY OUR TAF SITES WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE AT RUTLAND AND MSS BTWN 14Z-18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LVL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE INFLUENCE AT PBG FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WL BE BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS SE AT RUTLAND AROUND 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE NOTED A LLVL JET OFF THE LATEST RAP OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ONLY 200 TO 400 FEET AGL...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS WL BE
TRICKY AS SFC MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE WITH DWPT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE L60S POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF
TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 732 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST
SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER.
SOME NOTICEABLE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING
A BIT QUICKER. OTHERWISE... WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO
06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO
2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
5H TROF...UNDER CUTTING HIGH PRES. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PASS BY OUR TAF SITES WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE AT RUTLAND AND MSS BTWN 14Z-18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LVL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE INFLUENCE AT PBG FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WL BE BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS SE AT RUTLAND AROUND 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE NOTED A LLVL JET OFF THE LATEST RAP OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ONLY 200 TO 400 FEET AGL...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS WL BE
TRICKY AS SFC MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE WITH DWPT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE L60S POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF
TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201102
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
702 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT CLIP
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND
AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3C AND -5C BY WEDS AFTERNOON. AS
POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO 06Z
THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO 2
HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
5H TROF...UNDER CUTTING HIGH PRES. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PASS BY OUR TAF SITES WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE AT RUTLAND AND MSS BTWN 14Z-18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LVL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE INFLUENCE AT PBG FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WL BE BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS SE AT RUTLAND AROUND 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE NOTED A LLVL JET OFF THE LATEST RAP OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ONLY 200 TO 400 FEET AGL...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS WL BE
TRICKY AS SFC MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE WITH DWPT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE L60S POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF
TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201102
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
702 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT CLIP
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND
AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3C AND -5C BY WEDS AFTERNOON. AS
POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO 06Z
THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO 2
HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
5H TROF...UNDER CUTTING HIGH PRES. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PASS BY OUR TAF SITES WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE AT RUTLAND AND MSS BTWN 14Z-18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LVL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE INFLUENCE AT PBG FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WL BE BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS SE AT RUTLAND AROUND 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE NOTED A LLVL JET OFF THE LATEST RAP OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ONLY 200 TO 400 FEET AGL...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS WL BE
TRICKY AS SFC MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE WITH DWPT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE L60S POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF
TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 200820
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT CLIP
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND
AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3C AND -5C BY WEDS AFTERNOON. AS
POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO 06Z
THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO 2
HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS BRIEF BREAK IN THE HIGH
OVERCAST ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING...WITH
SURFACE DWPTS 4 TO 8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THIS BREAK IN THE CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL
BELOW THE CROSS OVER VALUE AT SLK WITH FOG/BR ALREADY DEVELOPING.
HAVE MENTION A 2 HR TEMPO BETWEEN 06-08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
THINK AS MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP TEMPS WILL WARM AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
AT MPV...BREAK IN OVERCAST IS JUST ARRIVING AND FEEL A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z-10Z THIS
MORNING...ELSEWHERE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT RUTLAND. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A LAKE
BREEZY IMPACTING PBG.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF
MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 200820
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT CLIP
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND
AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3C AND -5C BY WEDS AFTERNOON. AS
POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO 06Z
THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO 2
HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS BRIEF BREAK IN THE HIGH
OVERCAST ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING...WITH
SURFACE DWPTS 4 TO 8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THIS BREAK IN THE CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL
BELOW THE CROSS OVER VALUE AT SLK WITH FOG/BR ALREADY DEVELOPING.
HAVE MENTION A 2 HR TEMPO BETWEEN 06-08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
THINK AS MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP TEMPS WILL WARM AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
AT MPV...BREAK IN OVERCAST IS JUST ARRIVING AND FEEL A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z-10Z THIS
MORNING...ELSEWHERE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT RUTLAND. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A LAKE
BREEZY IMPACTING PBG.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF
MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 200754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 136 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO
REAL NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT. SIMPLY LOADED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO MATCH ONGOING SITUATION A BIT BETTER.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO
EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL...WHICH GOING
FORECAST HAS COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO MAY
EITHER JUST SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON MONDAY...MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTING AT SOME MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WL BE WEDS
AFTN/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FCST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TWD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND SFC
DPWTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV AND SLV. WEDS WL START OUT DRY
WITH BREEZY WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO
17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER
VALLEY REGIONS. THIS HEAT...WL RESULT IN SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
BTWN 1200 AND 1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BTWN -3C AND -5C BY WEDS
AFTN. AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO 06Z
THURS...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO 2 HRS
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING PROFILES
CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU 500MB...WITH
MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30
AND 40 KNTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT IN CRNT HWO
ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...WITH PWS BTWN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS
ARE LIKELY...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H
PVA IS LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LVL TROF
AXIS IS APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTS TO SHOW ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT...THESE POPS
WL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SFC HIGH PRES. TEMPS WL DROP BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS BRIEF BREAK IN THE HIGH
OVERCAST ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING...WITH
SFC DWPTS 4 TO 8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THIS BREAK IN THE CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL
BELOW THE CROSS OVER VALUE AT SLK WITH FOG/BR ALREADY DEVELOPING.
HAVE MENTION A 2 HR TEMPO BTWN 06-08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
THINK AS MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP TEMPS WL WARM AND FOG WL DISSIPATE.
AT MPV...BREAK IN OVERCAST IS JUST ARRIVING AND FEEL A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WL BE POSSIBLE BTWN 07Z-10Z THIS
MORNING...ELSEWHERE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT RUTLAND. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK BTWN 17Z-21Z. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A LAKE
BREEZY IMPACTING PBG.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTN. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTN/EVENING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
WL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WL CONT INTO THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF
MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER











000
FXUS61 KBTV 200548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 136 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO
REAL NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT. SIMPLY LOADED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO MATCH ONGOING SITUATION A BIT BETTER.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO
EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL...WHICH GOING
FORECAST HAS COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO MAY
EITHER JUST SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON MONDAY...MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTING AT SOME MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH
LOCALLY 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM FURTHER A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
BUMPING UP TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EARLY ANALYSIS OF
SEVERE PARAMETERS POINTING TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO 00Z WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS BRIEF BREAK IN THE HIGH
OVERCAST ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING...WITH
SFC DWPTS 4 TO 8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THIS BREAK IN THE CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL
BELOW THE CROSS OVER VALUE AT SLK WITH FOG/BR ALREADY DEVELOPING.
HAVE MENTION A 2 HR TEMPO BTWN 06-08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
THINK AS MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP TEMPS WL WARM AND FOG WL DISSIPATE.
AT MPV...BREAK IN OVERCAST IS JUST ARRIVING AND FEEL A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WL BE POSSIBLE BTWN 07Z-10Z THIS
MORNING...ELSEWHERE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT RUTLAND. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK BTWN 17Z-21Z. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A LAKE
BREEZY IMPACTING PBG.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTN. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTN/EVENING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
WL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WL CONT INTO THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF
MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 200548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 136 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO
REAL NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT. SIMPLY LOADED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO MATCH ONGOING SITUATION A BIT BETTER.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO
EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL...WHICH GOING
FORECAST HAS COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO MAY
EITHER JUST SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON MONDAY...MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTING AT SOME MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH
LOCALLY 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM FURTHER A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
BUMPING UP TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EARLY ANALYSIS OF
SEVERE PARAMETERS POINTING TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO 00Z WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS BRIEF BREAK IN THE HIGH
OVERCAST ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING...WITH
SFC DWPTS 4 TO 8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THIS BREAK IN THE CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL
BELOW THE CROSS OVER VALUE AT SLK WITH FOG/BR ALREADY DEVELOPING.
HAVE MENTION A 2 HR TEMPO BTWN 06-08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
THINK AS MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP TEMPS WL WARM AND FOG WL DISSIPATE.
AT MPV...BREAK IN OVERCAST IS JUST ARRIVING AND FEEL A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WL BE POSSIBLE BTWN 07Z-10Z THIS
MORNING...ELSEWHERE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT RUTLAND. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK BTWN 17Z-21Z. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A LAKE
BREEZY IMPACTING PBG.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTN. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTN/EVENING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
WL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WL CONT INTO THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF
MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 200536
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 136 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO
REAL NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT. SIMPLY LOADED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO MATCH ONGOING SITUATION A BIT BETTER.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO
EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL...WHICH GOING
FORECAST HAS COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO MAY
EITHER JUST SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON MONDAY...MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTING AT SOME MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH
LOCALLY 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM FURTHER A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
BUMPING UP TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EARLY ANALYSIS OF
SEVERE PARAMETERS POINTING TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO 00Z WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TODAY`S SCT050
TRENDING AWAY...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NY. LIGHT
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 200536
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 136 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO
REAL NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT. SIMPLY LOADED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO MATCH ONGOING SITUATION A BIT BETTER.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO
EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL...WHICH GOING
FORECAST HAS COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO MAY
EITHER JUST SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON MONDAY...MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTING AT SOME MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH
LOCALLY 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM FURTHER A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
BUMPING UP TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EARLY ANALYSIS OF
SEVERE PARAMETERS POINTING TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO 00Z WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TODAY`S SCT050
TRENDING AWAY...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NY. LIGHT
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 200229
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT SATURDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECAST NUMBERS...MAINLY
FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST...AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 411 PM...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP IN SOME MENTION OF
PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO MAY
EITHER JUST SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON MONDAY...MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTING AT SOME MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH
LOCALLY 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM FURTHER A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
BUMPING UP TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EARLY ANALYSIS OF
SEVERE PARAMETERS POINTING TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO 00Z WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TODAY`S SCT050
TRENDING AWAY...ALTHOUGH PLENT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NY. LIGHT
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 192333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 712 PM EDT SATURDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS FOR THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP IN SOME MENTION OF
PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO MAY
EITHER JUST SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON MONDAY...MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTING AT SOME MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH
LOCALLY 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM FURTHER A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
BUMPING UP TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EARLY ANALYSIS OF
SEVERE PARAMETERS POINTING TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO 00Z WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TODAY`S SCT050
TRENDING AWAY...ALTHOUGH PLENT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NY. LIGHT
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 192333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 712 PM EDT SATURDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS FOR THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP IN SOME MENTION OF
PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO MAY
EITHER JUST SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON MONDAY...MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTING AT SOME MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH
LOCALLY 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM FURTHER A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
BUMPING UP TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EARLY ANALYSIS OF
SEVERE PARAMETERS POINTING TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO 00Z WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TODAY`S SCT050
TRENDING AWAY...ALTHOUGH PLENT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NY. LIGHT
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 192317
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 712 PM EDT SATURDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS FOR THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP IN SOME MENTION OF
PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO MAY
EITHER JUST SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON MONDAY...MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTING AT SOME MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH
LOCALLY 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM FURTHER A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
BUMPING UP TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EARLY ANALYSIS OF
SEVERE PARAMETERS POINTING TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO 00Z WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BTV
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING LATER THIS
EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN VFR ABOVE 12KFT EAST OF KPBG AND DOWN TO 040-060 AT KSLK
AND KMSS AFTER 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 192317
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 712 PM EDT SATURDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS FOR THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP IN SOME MENTION OF
PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO MAY
EITHER JUST SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON MONDAY...MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTING AT SOME MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH
LOCALLY 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM FURTHER A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
BUMPING UP TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EARLY ANALYSIS OF
SEVERE PARAMETERS POINTING TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO 00Z WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BTV
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING LATER THIS
EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN VFR ABOVE 12KFT EAST OF KPBG AND DOWN TO 040-060 AT KSLK
AND KMSS AFTER 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 192011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. WILL KEEP IN SOME MENTION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT GIVEN
CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO MAY
EITHER JUST SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON MONDAY...MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTING AT SOME MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH
LOCALLY 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM FURTHER A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
BUMPING UP TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EARLY ANALYSIS OF
SEVERE PARAMETERS POINTING TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO 00Z WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BTV
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING LATER THIS
EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN VFR ABOVE 12KFT EAST OF KPBG AND DOWN TO 040-060 AT KSLK
AND KMSS AFTER 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF










000
FXUS61 KBTV 192011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. WILL KEEP IN SOME MENTION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT GIVEN
CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD...SO MAY
EITHER JUST SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON MONDAY...MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTING AT SOME MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...SO
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH
LOCALLY 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM FURTHER A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
BUMPING UP TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EARLY ANALYSIS OF
SEVERE PARAMETERS POINTING TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO 00Z WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BTV
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING LATER THIS
EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN VFR ABOVE 12KFT EAST OF KPBG AND DOWN TO 040-060 AT KSLK
AND KMSS AFTER 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 191945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE ON
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
AND MAYBE PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY
WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
SUNNY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT HEADS INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS
FEATURE WILL BE CLOUDS...BUT FORCING MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING
FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY OVER THIS
AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IDEA. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST ON
SUNDAY MOVES VERY LITTLE ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WE
WILL SEE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AND HIGHER DEW POINTS AND AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON
MONDAY. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA AND WILL KEEP IT IN
THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH
LOCALLY 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM FURTHER A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
BUMPING UP TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH EARLY ANALYSIS OF
SEVERE PARAMETERS POINTING TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO 00Z WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BTV
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING LATER THIS
EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN VFR ABOVE 12KFT EAST OF KPBG AND DOWN TO 040-060 AT KSLK
AND KMSS AFTER 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 191729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE ON
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
AND MAYBE PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY
WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
SUNNY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT HEADS INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS
FEATURE WILL BE CLOUDS...BUT FORCING MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING
FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY OVER THIS
AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IDEA. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST ON
SUNDAY MOVES VERY LITTLE ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WE
WILL SEE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AND HIGHER DEW POINTS AND AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON
MONDAY. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA AND WILL KEEP IT IN
THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROF. THESE BUILDING HGHTS AND WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUES AND WEDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
OFF THE GFS ARE NEAR 18C...WHILE GEM/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AROUND 16C...EITHER WAY LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEYS BOTH DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE EXPECTED
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT HIGHER SFC DWPTS INTO OUR REGION...SO
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE WITH FEEL LIKE TEMPS IN THE L/M 90S
MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE U50S COLDER
VALLEYS TO U60S CPV/SLV ON WEDS MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS WILL BE
WEDS AFTN INTO THURS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
TROF...WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT...AND POTENT 5H ENERGY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON
WEDS AFTN/EVENING. LATEST GFS SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW THRU 500MB...SUPPORTING MORE OF A WIND THREAT.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH AND TIMING OF BOUNDARY DURING MAX
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF STORMS. THURSDAY...BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WHILE POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORTS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF ARE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION. GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND MONITOR FURTHER TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL HIGHER POPS IN LATER
FCSTS. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER AIR ARRIVING BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BTV
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING LATER THIS
EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN VFR ABOVE 12KFT EAST OF KPBG AND DOWN TO 040-060 AT KSLK
AND KMSS AFTER 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE ON
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
AND MAYBE PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY
WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
SUNNY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT HEADS INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS
FEATURE WILL BE CLOUDS...BUT FORCING MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING
FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY OVER THIS
AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IDEA. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST ON
SUNDAY MOVES VERY LITTLE ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WE
WILL SEE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AND HIGHER DEW POINTS AND AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON
MONDAY. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA AND WILL KEEP IT IN
THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROF. THESE BUILDING HGHTS AND WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUES AND WEDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
OFF THE GFS ARE NEAR 18C...WHILE GEM/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AROUND 16C...EITHER WAY LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEYS BOTH DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE EXPECTED
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT HIGHER SFC DWPTS INTO OUR REGION...SO
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE WITH FEEL LIKE TEMPS IN THE L/M 90S
MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE U50S COLDER
VALLEYS TO U60S CPV/SLV ON WEDS MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS WILL BE
WEDS AFTN INTO THURS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
TROF...WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT...AND POTENT 5H ENERGY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON
WEDS AFTN/EVENING. LATEST GFS SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW THRU 500MB...SUPPORTING MORE OF A WIND THREAT.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH AND TIMING OF BOUNDARY DURING MAX
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF STORMS. THURSDAY...BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WHILE POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORTS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF ARE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION. GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND MONITOR FURTHER TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL HIGHER POPS IN LATER
FCSTS. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER AIR ARRIVING BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BTV
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING LATER THIS
EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN VFR ABOVE 12KFT EAST OF KPBG AND DOWN TO 040-060 AT KSLK
AND KMSS AFTER 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 191715
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE ON
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
AND MAYBE PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY
WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME...SO
EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE AROUND BUFFALO...BUT THESE ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND WILL
STAY WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 713 AM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
AND NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN MANY OF THE USUAL PLACES AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER MIGHT CAUSE THE FOG TO HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING.
ALSO CONCERNED A LITTLE THICKER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE UP INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. SO
EVEN THOUGH 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF US.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT HEADS INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS
FEATURE WILL BE CLOUDS...BUT FORCING MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING
FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY OVER THIS
AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IDEA. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST ON
SUNDAY MOVES VERY LITTLE ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WE
WILL SEE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AND HIGHER DEW POINTS AND AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON
MONDAY. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA AND WILL KEEP IT IN
THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROF. THESE BUILDING HGHTS AND WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUES AND WEDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
OFF THE GFS ARE NEAR 18C...WHILE GEM/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AROUND 16C...EITHER WAY LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEYS BOTH DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE EXPECTED
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT HIGHER SFC DWPTS INTO OUR REGION...SO
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE WITH FEEL LIKE TEMPS IN THE L/M 90S
MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE U50S COLDER
VALLEYS TO U60S CPV/SLV ON WEDS MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS WILL BE
WEDS AFTN INTO THURS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
TROF...WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT...AND POTENT 5H ENERGY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON
WEDS AFTN/EVENING. LATEST GFS SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW THRU 500MB...SUPPORTING MORE OF A WIND THREAT.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH AND TIMING OF BOUNDARY DURING MAX
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF STORMS. THURSDAY...BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WHILE POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORTS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF ARE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION. GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND MONITOR FURTHER TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL HIGHER POPS IN LATER
FCSTS. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER AIR ARRIVING BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BTV
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING LATER THIS
EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN VFR ABOVE 12KFT EAST OF KPBG AND DOWN TO 040-060 AT KSLK
AND KMSS AFTER 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 191715
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE ON
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
AND MAYBE PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY
WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME...SO
EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE AROUND BUFFALO...BUT THESE ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND WILL
STAY WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 713 AM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
AND NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN MANY OF THE USUAL PLACES AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER MIGHT CAUSE THE FOG TO HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING.
ALSO CONCERNED A LITTLE THICKER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE UP INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. SO
EVEN THOUGH 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF US.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT HEADS INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS
FEATURE WILL BE CLOUDS...BUT FORCING MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING
FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY OVER THIS
AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IDEA. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST ON
SUNDAY MOVES VERY LITTLE ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WE
WILL SEE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AND HIGHER DEW POINTS AND AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON
MONDAY. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA AND WILL KEEP IT IN
THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROF. THESE BUILDING HGHTS AND WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUES AND WEDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
OFF THE GFS ARE NEAR 18C...WHILE GEM/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AROUND 16C...EITHER WAY LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEYS BOTH DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE EXPECTED
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT HIGHER SFC DWPTS INTO OUR REGION...SO
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE WITH FEEL LIKE TEMPS IN THE L/M 90S
MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE U50S COLDER
VALLEYS TO U60S CPV/SLV ON WEDS MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS WILL BE
WEDS AFTN INTO THURS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
TROF...WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT...AND POTENT 5H ENERGY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON
WEDS AFTN/EVENING. LATEST GFS SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW THRU 500MB...SUPPORTING MORE OF A WIND THREAT.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH AND TIMING OF BOUNDARY DURING MAX
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF STORMS. THURSDAY...BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WHILE POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORTS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF ARE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION. GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND MONITOR FURTHER TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL HIGHER POPS IN LATER
FCSTS. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER AIR ARRIVING BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BTV
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING LATER THIS
EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN VFR ABOVE 12KFT EAST OF KPBG AND DOWN TO 040-060 AT KSLK
AND KMSS AFTER 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF








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