000
FXUS61 KBTV 191728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SOME AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 128 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. JUST UPDATED THE
GRIDS WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN RIGHT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE HAS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...THUS LOOKING AT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BUT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH AND WEST TO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AREA. WHILE
THERE MIGHT BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AREA FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SHOW RISING TEMPERATURES...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT BREAKS
DOWN INTO A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
FEED NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO SLOWLY CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD STARTING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SATURDAY...AND REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
WARM NIGHTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING ONLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW MIN TEMPS MAKING IT MUGGY AS WELL. IN REGARDS TO
PRECIP POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF FAST WESTERLIES JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASS NEAR OR THROUGH THE BTV CWA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY
TOO FAR OUT TO TIME SUCH SMALL FEATURES SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH
DAY...LOWERING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 18Z THURS...AS SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES OUR WX. CRNT OBS AND
VIS SATL PICS SHOW SUNNY SKIES WITH NW TO NE WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...AS SFC HIGH PRES IS JUST CENTERED TO OUR
WEST. THIS SYSTEM WL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLR SKIES ANTICIPATED. EXPECT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS AT
RUTLAND FROM THE SE. OTHERWISE...HAVE TEMPO IN BRIEF MVFR IN BR AT
SLK/MPV FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THINKING AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...AS BL IS DRIER
AND TEMPS WL PROBABLY NOT REACH CROSS VALUES TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLR SKIES CONTINUING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING...ALONG WITH THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS BY LATE FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WARM FRNT. THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WL
CONT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED...BUT MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WL BE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS
BTWN 17Z-23Z EACH DAY. IF A STORM IMPACTS A TAF SITE AND SOME RAIN
OCCURS...PATCHY FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING HRS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SOME AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1043 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VALLEY FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT HAS BURNED OFF. VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. FORECAST OF SUNNY SKIES TODAY STILL LO0KS
GOOD. SO...JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL DEALING
WITH SOME FOG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT AND THIS SHOULD
LAST FOR ONLY A COUPLE MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER WILL EXIST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN RIGHT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE HAS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...THUS LOOKING AT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BUT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH AND WEST TO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AREA. WHILE
THERE MIGHT BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AREA FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SHOW RISING TEMPERATURES...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT BREAKS
DOWN INTO A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
FEED NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO SLOWLY CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD STARTING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SATURDAY...AND REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
WARM NIGHTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING ONLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW MIN TEMPS MAKING IT MUGGY AS WELL. IN REGARDS TO
PRECIP POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF FAST WESTERLIES JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASS NEAR OR THROUGH THE BTV CWA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY
TOO FAR OUT TO TIME SUCH SMALL FEATURES SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH
DAY...LOWERING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 18Z THURS...AS SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES OUR WX. CRNT OBS AND
VIS SATL PICS SHOW SUNNY SKIES WITH NW TO NE WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...AS SFC HIGH PRES IS JUST CENTERED TO OUR
WEST. THIS SYSTEM WL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLR SKIES ANTICIPATED. EXPECT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS AT
RUTLAND FROM THE SE. OTHERWISE...HAVE TEMPO IN BRIEF MVFR IN BR AT
SLK/MPV FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THINKING AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...AS BL IS DRIER
AND TEMPS WL PROBABLY NOT REACH CROSS VALUES TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLR SKIES CONTINUING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING...ALONG WITH THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS BY LATE FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WARM FRNT. THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WL
CONT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED...BUT MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WL BE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS
BTWN 17Z-23Z EACH DAY. IF A STORM IMPACTS A TAF SITE AND SOME RAIN
OCCURS...PATCHY FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING HRS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191443
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SOME AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1043 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VALLEY FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT HAS BURNED OFF. VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. FORECAST OF SUNNY SKIES TODAY STILL LO0KS
GOOD. SO...JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL DEALING
WITH SOME FOG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT AND THIS SHOULD
LAST FOR ONLY A COUPLE MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER WILL EXIST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN RIGHT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE HAS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...THUS LOOKING AT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BUT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH AND WEST TO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AREA. WHILE
THERE MIGHT BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AREA FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SHOW RISING TEMPERATURES...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT BREAKS
DOWN INTO A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
FEED NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO SLOWLY CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD STARTING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SATURDAY...AND REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
WARM NIGHTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING ONLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW MIN TEMPS MAKING IT MUGGY AS WELL. IN REGARDS TO
PRECIP POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF FAST WESTERLIES JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASS NEAR OR THROUGH THE BTV CWA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY
TOO FAR OUT TO TIME SUCH SMALL FEATURES SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH
DAY...LOWERING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE BTV AIRSPACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM 15-00Z BEFORE CLEARING AGAIN TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1043 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE FAA HAS NOTIFIED US THAT THE
AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND
(KRUT)-SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE
TODAY FROM 1530Z-1900Z (1130 AM EDT-300 PM EDT)...SO PREVENTATIVE
MAINTENANCE CAN BE DONE AT THE SITE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SOME AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME FOG OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT AND THIS SHOULD LAST FOR ONLY A COUPLE
MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL EXIST TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW
CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST...BUT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN RIGHT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE HAS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...THUS LOOKING AT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BUT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH AND WEST TO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AREA. WHILE
THERE MIGHT BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AREA FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SHOW RISING TEMPERATURES...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT BREAKS
DOWN INTO A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
FEED NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO SLOWLY CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD STARTING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SATURDAY...AND REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
WARM NIGHTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING ONLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW MIN TEMPS MAKING IT MUGGY AS WELL. IN REGARDS TO
PRECIP POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF FAST WESTERLIES JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASS NEAR OR THROUGH THE BTV CWA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY
TOO FAR OUT TO TIME SUCH SMALL FEATURES SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH
DAY...LOWERING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE BTV AIRSPACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM 15-00Z BEFORE CLEARING AGAIN TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SOME AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME FOG OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT AND THIS SHOULD LAST FOR ONLY A COUPLE
MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL EXIST TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW
CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST...BUT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN RIGHT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE HAS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...THUS LOOKING AT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BUT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH AND WEST TO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AREA. WHILE
THERE MIGHT BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AREA FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SHOW RISING TEMPERATURES...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT BREAKS
DOWN INTO A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
FEED NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO SLOWLY CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD STARTING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SATURDAY...AND REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
WARM NIGHTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING ONLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW MIN TEMPS MAKING IT MUGGY AS WELL. IN REGARDS TO
PRECIP POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF FAST WESTERLIES JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASS NEAR OR THROUGH THE BTV CWA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY
TOO FAR OUT TO TIME SUCH SMALL FEATURES SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH
DAY...LOWERING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE BTV AIRSPACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY FLIGHT CONDITION ISSUES WILL BE ONGOING FOG AT
KRUT AND POSSIBLE BR/FG AT KMPV FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM 15-00Z BEFORE CLEARING AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SOME AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL EXIST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN RIGHT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE HAS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...THUS LOOKING AT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BUT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH AND WEST TO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AREA. WHILE
THERE MIGHT BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AREA FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SHOW RISING TEMPERATURES...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT BREAKS
DOWN INTO A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
FEED NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO SLOWLY CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD STARTING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SATURDAY...AND REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
WARM NIGHTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING ONLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW MIN TEMPS MAKING IT MUGGY AS WELL. IN REGARDS TO
PRECIP POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF FAST WESTERLIES JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASS NEAR OR THROUGH THE BTV CWA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY
TOO FAR OUT TO TIME SUCH SMALL FEATURES SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH
DAY...LOWERING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE BTV AIRSPACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY FLIGHT CONDITION ISSUES WILL BE ONGOING FOG AT
KRUT AND POSSIBLE BR/FG AT KMPV FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM 15-00Z BEFORE CLEARING AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190536
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW EVENING SHOWERS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION MAY SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1249 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL ON TRACK. SEEING SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND HAVE ADDED
SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST. FOG ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
ALREADY FORMING AND GRIDS HAVE THIS COVERED WELL. OTHERWISE...REST OF
GRIDS REMAIN UNTOUCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK (WED/THU) AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY ATOP THE
REGION. THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME
SHALLOW DEPTH FAIR WX CUMULUS OCCURRING EACH DAY OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS LIGHT.
AVERAGED 18-00Z MODEL BLENDED 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 68 TO 74 ON WEDNESDAY...THEN 2-4 DEGREES MILDER 71 TO 77 OR
SO BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 38 TO 48 WED NIGHT...THOUGH WITH
CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT INFLUENCE. MODELS MAINTAIN
THE IDEA THAT A WEAK/DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. KEPT WITH THE
IDEA OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A
TAD FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS A TAD MILDER AS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY WARM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND TREND TOWARDS MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL
TREND FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. INITIALLY REGION WILL BE
UNDER INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU BRISK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE SMALL FEATURES AT THIS POINT...THEREFORE
HAVE A LOT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LARGE AND HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THICKNESSES APPROACH 588. THINK THAT WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT TIMING AND LOCATION
THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE BTV AIRSPACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY FLIGHT CONDITION ISSUES WILL BE ONGOING FOG AT
KRUT AND POSSIBLE BR/FG AT KMPV FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM 15-00Z BEFORE CLEARING AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190450
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW EVENING SHOWERS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION MAY SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1249 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL ON TRACK. SEEING SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND HAVE ADDED
SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST. FOG ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
ALREADY FORMING AND GRIDS HAVE THIS COVERED WELL. OTHERWISE...REST OF
GRIDS REMAIN UNTOUCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK (WED/THU) AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY ATOP THE
REGION. THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME
SHALLOW DEPTH FAIR WX CUMULUS OCCURRING EACH DAY OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS LIGHT.
AVERAGED 18-00Z MODEL BLENDED 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 68 TO 74 ON WEDNESDAY...THEN 2-4 DEGREES MILDER 71 TO 77 OR
SO BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 38 TO 48 WED NIGHT...THOUGH WITH
CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT INFLUENCE. MODELS MAINTAIN
THE IDEA THAT A WEAK/DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. KEPT WITH THE
IDEA OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A
TAD FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS A TAD MILDER AS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY WARM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND TREND TOWARDS MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL
TREND FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. INITIALLY REGION WILL BE
UNDER INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU BRISK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE SMALL FEATURES AT THIS POINT...THEREFORE
HAVE A LOT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LARGE AND HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THICKNESSES APPROACH 588. THINK THAT WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT TIMING AND LOCATION
THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT...AND NORTH WINDS 7-10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE IS PATCHY FOG AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN
06-12Z. 2-METER DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED 10-12F COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY EVENING...SO THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS AT MPV
MAKES PROSPECTS FOR DENSE FOG LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
DAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW EVENING SHOWERS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION MAY SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MORE HUMID AND SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1008 PM EDT TUESDAY...A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR MOST TONIGHT. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL GRADUALLY TREND MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARDS MORNING
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINES.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
EXPECTING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
30S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FOG
FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...NORTHERLY FLOW...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
HOWEVER WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND WITH ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK (WED/THU) AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY ATOP THE
REGION. THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME
SHALLOW DEPTH FAIR WX CUMULUS OCCURRING EACH DAY OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS LIGHT.
AVERAGED 18-00Z MODEL BLENDED 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 68 TO 74 ON WEDNESDAY...THEN 2-4 DEGREES MILDER 71 TO 77 OR
SO BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 38 TO 48 WED NIGHT...THOUGH WITH
CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT INFLUENCE. MODELS MAINTAIN
THE IDEA THAT A WEAK/DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. KEPT WITH THE
IDEA OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A
TAD FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS A TAD MILDER AS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY WARM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND TREND TOWARDS MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL
TREND FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. INITIALLY REGION WILL BE
UNDER INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU BRISK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE SMALL FEATURES AT THIS POINT...THEREFORE
HAVE A LOT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LARGE AND HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THICKNESSES APPROACH 588. THINK THAT WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT TIMING AND LOCATION
THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT...AND NORTH WINDS 7-10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE IS PATCHY FOG AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN
06-12Z. 2-METER DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED 10-12F COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY EVENING...SO THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS AT MPV
MAKES PROSPECTS FOR DENSE FOG LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
DAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 182339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW EVENING SHOWERS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION MAY SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MORE HUMID AND SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 729 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE...MOST NOTICEABLE BEING THE REMOVAL OF ANY
MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT WILL GRADUALLY TREND MOSTLY
CLEAR BY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE SLOWLY DEPARTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT TUESDAY..
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH A WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT ACROSS SRN
QUEBEC...ALONG WHICH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE THUS INTRODUCED JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE I`M EXPECTING
A MAINLY DRY NIGHT. CLOUDS A TAD MORE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH WHERE MID TO HIGH LEVEL RH MAY LINGER A TAD LONGER.
NONETHELESS EXPECT MOST AREAS TO TREND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH CUSTOMARY COOL/WARM SPOTS. DID OPT TO BACK OFF ON
BR/FG POTENTIAL AFTER ASSESSING THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS
ENOUGH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE PBL OVERNIGHT TO
FOSTER BETTER DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DOWN INTO THE NEAR SURFACE
LAYERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK (WED/THU) AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY ATOP THE
REGION. THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME
SHALLOW DEPTH FAIR WX CUMULUS OCCURRING EACH DAY OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS LIGHT.
AVERAGED 18-00Z MODEL BLENDED 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 68 TO 74 ON WEDNESDAY...THEN 2-4 DEGREES MILDER 71 TO 77 OR
SO BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 38 TO 48 WED NIGHT...THOUGH WITH
CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT INFLUENCE. MODELS MAINTAIN
THE IDEA THAT A WEAK/DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. KEPT WITH THE
IDEA OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A
TAD FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS A TAD MILDER AS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY WARM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND TREND TOWARDS MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL
TREND FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. INITIALLY REGION WILL BE
UNDER INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU BRISK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE SMALL FEATURES AT THIS POINT...THEREFORE
HAVE A LOT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LARGE AND HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THICKNESSES APPROACH 588. THINK THAT WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT TIMING AND LOCATION
THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT...AND NORTH WINDS 7-10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE IS PATCHY FOG AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN
06-12Z. 2-METER DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED 10-12F COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY EVENING...SO THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS AT MPV
MAKES PROSPECTS FOR DENSE FOG LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
DAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 182303
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
703 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW EVENING SHOWERS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION MAY SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MORE HUMID AND SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 658 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE...MOST NOTICEABLE BEING THE REMOVAL OF ANY
MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT WILL GRADUALLY TREND MOSTLY
CLEAR BY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE SLOWLY DEPARTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT TUESDAY..
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH A WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT ACROSS SRN
QUEBEC...ALONG WHICH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE THUS INTRODUCED JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE I`M EXPECTING
A MAINLY DRY NIGHT. CLOUDS A TAD MORE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH WHERE MID TO HIGH LEVEL RH MAY LINGER A TAD LONGER.
NONETHELESS EXPECT MOST AREAS TO TREND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH CUSTOMARY COOL/WARM SPOTS. DID OPT TO BACK OFF ON
BR/FG POTENTIAL AFTER ASSESSING THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS
ENOUGH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE PBL OVERNIGHT TO
FOSTER BETTER DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DOWN INTO THE NEAR SURFACE
LAYERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK (WED/THU) AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY ATOP THE
REGION. THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME
SHALLOW DEPTH FAIR WX CUMULUS OCCURRING EACH DAY OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS LIGHT.
AVERAGED 18-00Z MODEL BLENDED 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 68 TO 74 ON WEDNESDAY...THEN 2-4 DEGREES MILDER 71 TO 77 OR
SO BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 38 TO 48 WED NIGHT...THOUGH WITH
CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT INFLUENCE. MODELS MAINTAIN
THE IDEA THAT A WEAK/DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. KEPT WITH THE
IDEA OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A
TAD FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS A TAD MILDER AS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY WARM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND TREND TOWARDS MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL
TREND FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. INITIALLY REGION WILL BE
UNDER INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU BRISK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE SMALL FEATURES AT THIS POINT...THEREFORE
HAVE A LOT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LARGE AND HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THICKNESSES APPROACH 588. THINK THAT WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT TIMING AND LOCATION
THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
ALL TERMINALS FEW-SKC BY 00-02Z EXCEPT FOR RUT WHERE CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO
SOME BR OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT
MPV/SLK. WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FG TO
FORM...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF TO MENTION OF BR INSTEAD AT
MPV/SLK. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
DAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 182301
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW EVENING SHOWERS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION MAY SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MORE HUMID AND SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 658 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE...MOST NOTICEABLE BEING THE REMOVAL OF ANY
MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT WILL GRADUALLY TREND MOSTLY
CLEAR BY MORNING AS THE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE SLOWLY DEPARTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT TUESDAY..
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH A WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT ACROSS SRN
QUEBEC...ALONG WHICH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE THUS INTRODUCED JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE I`M EXPECTING
A MAINLY DRY NIGHT. CLOUDS A TAD MORE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH WHERE MID TO HIGH LEVEL RH MAY LINGER A TAD LONGER.
NONETHELESS EXPECT MOST AREAS TO TREND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH CUSTOMARY COOL/WARM SPOTS. DID OPT TO BACK OFF ON
BR/FG POTENTIAL AFTER ASSESSING THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS
ENOUGH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE PBL OVERNIGHT TO
FOSTER BETTER DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DOWN INTO THE NEAR SURFACE
LAYERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK (WED/THU) AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY ATOP THE
REGION. THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME
SHALLOW DEPTH FAIR WX CUMULUS OCCURRING EACH DAY OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS LIGHT.
AVERAGED 18-00Z MODEL BLENDED 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 68 TO 74 ON WEDNESDAY...THEN 2-4 DEGREES MILDER 71 TO 77 OR
SO BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 38 TO 48 WED NIGHT...THOUGH WITH
CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT INFLUENCE. MODELS MAINTAIN
THE IDEA THAT A WEAK/DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. KEPT WITH THE
IDEA OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A
TAD FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS A TAD MILDER AS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY WARM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND TREND TOWARDS MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL
TREND FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. INITIALLY REGION WILL BE
UNDER INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU BRISK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE SMALL FEATURES AT THIS POINT...THEREFORE
HAVE A LOT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LARGE AND HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THICKNESSES APPROACH 588. THINK THAT WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT TIMING AND LOCATION
THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
ALL TERMINALS FEW-SKC BY 00-02Z EXCEPT FOR RUT WHERE CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO
SOME BR OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT
MPV/SLK. WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FG TO
FORM...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF TO MENTION OF BR INSTEAD AT
MPV/SLK. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
DAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 182026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW EVENING SHOWERS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION MAY SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MORE HUMID AND SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. HOWEVER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...ALONG WHICH
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO FAR NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE I`M EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT. CLOUDS A TAD MORE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL RH MAY LINGER A TAD LONGER. NONETHELESS EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO TREND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
CUSTOMARY COOL/WARM SPOTS. DID OPT TO BACK OFF ON BR/FG POTENTIAL
AFTER ASSESSING THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS ENOUGH NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE PBL OVERNIGHT TO FOSTER BETTER DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT DOWN INTO THE NEAR SURFACE LAYERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK (WED/THU) AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY ATOP THE
REGION. THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME
SHALLOW DEPTH FAIR WX CUMULUS OCCURRING EACH DAY OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS LIGHT.
AVERAGED 18-00Z MODEL BLENDED 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 68 TO 74 ON WEDNESDAY...THEN 2-4 DEGREES MILDER 71 TO 77 OR
SO BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 38 TO 48 WED NIGHT...THOUGH WITH
CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT INFLUENCE. MODELS MAINTAIN
THE IDEA THAT A WEAK/DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. KEPT WITH THE
IDEA OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A
TAD FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS A TAD MILDER AS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY WARM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND TREND TOWARDS MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL
TREND FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. INITIALLY REGION WILL BE
UNDER INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU BRISK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE SMALL FEATURES AT THIS POINT...THEREFORE
HAVE A LOT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LARGE AND HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THICKNESSES APPROACH 588. THINK THAT WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT TIMING AND LOCATION
THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
ALL TERMINALS FEW-SKC BY 00-02Z EXCEPT FOR RUT WHERE CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO
SOME BR OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT
MPV/SLK. WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FG TO
FORM...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF TO MENTION OF BR INSTEAD AT
MPV/SLK. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
DAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW EVENING SHOWERS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MORE
HUMID AND SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH EVIDENT ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...ALONG WHICH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED JUST AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...OTHERWISE I`M EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY NIGHT. CLOUDS A TAD
MORE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE MID TO HIGH LEVEL RH MAY
LINGER A TAD LONGER. NONETHELESS EXPECT MOST AREAS TO TREND CLEAR
TO PTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH CUSTOMARY COOL/WARM SPOTS. DID
OPT TO BACK OFF ON BR/FG POTENTIAL AFTER ASSESSING THE 12Z
GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS ENOUGH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP
THE PBL OVERNIGHT TO FOSTER BETTER DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DOWN INTO
THE NEAR SURFACE LAYERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK (WED/THU) AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY ATOP THE
REGION. THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME
SHALLOW DEPTH FAIR WX CUMULUS OCCURRING EACH DAY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS LIGHT. AVERAGED 18-00Z
MODEL BLENDED 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM 68 TO 74 ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN 2-4 DEGREES MILDER 71 TO 77 OR SO BY THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS 38 TO 48 WED NIGHT...THOUGH WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT INFLUENCE. MODELS MAINTAIN THE
IDEA THAT A WEAK/DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. KEPT WITH THE
IDEA OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A TAD
FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY. LOWS A TAD MILDER AS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED...MAINLY 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY
INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WHICH BEGINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE
COAST. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WELL...BUT A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF
THE INTL BORDER WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED. GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SAID HEAT...BUT
BOTH SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE FLOW ALOFT TRENDS MORE WESTERLY GOING INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DAILY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AS USUALLY IS THE
CASE ON FORECAST DAYS 6-7...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES SO HAVE JUST PLAYED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
ALL TERMINALS FEW-SKC BY 00-02Z EXCEPT FOR RUT WHERE CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO
SOME BR OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT
MPV/SLK. WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FG TO
FORM...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF TO MENTION OF BR INSTEAD AT
MPV/SLK. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
DAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...THEN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST MORE OR LESS REMAINS ON
TRACK AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST AND SOUTH FROM CANADA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN MILDEST
SPOTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY. FURTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS TO HANG ON A TAD
LONGER...AND WHILE SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHING/SINKING SOUTH OVER TIME...LACK OF INSOLATION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MADE
THESE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...TONIGHT STARTS OUR FIRST EXTENDED
PERIOD IN AWHILE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL. THERMAL PROFILE SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THUS WE WILL BE
APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY
INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WHICH BEGINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE
COAST. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WELL...BUT A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF
THE INTL BORDER WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED. GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SAID HEAT...BUT
BOTH SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE FLOW ALOFT TRENDS MORE WESTERLY GOING INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DAILY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AS USUALLY IS THE
CASE ON FORECAST DAYS 6-7...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES SO HAVE JUST PLAYED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
ALL TERMINALS FEW-SKC BY 00-02Z EXCEPT FOR RUT WHERE CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO
SOME BR OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT
MPV/SLK. WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FG TO
FORM...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF TO MENTION OF BR INSTEAD AT
MPV/SLK. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
DAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181620
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1220 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...THEN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST MORE OR LESS REMAINS ON TRACK
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST AND SOUTH FROM CANADA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO TREND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN MILDEST SPOTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY. FURTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS TO HANG ON A TAD
LONGER...AND WHILE SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHING/SINKING SOUTH OVER TIME...LACK OF INSOLATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MADE THESE
ADUSTMENTS TO SKY/TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...TONIGHT STARTS OUR FIRST EXTENDED PERIOD
IN AWHILE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
WELL. THERMAL PROFILE SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THUS WE WILL BE APPROACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY INTACT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WHICH BEGINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE COAST.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL...BUT A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SAID HEAT...BUT BOTH SHOW A
GENERAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT TRENDS MORE WESTERLY GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME DAILY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AS USUALLY IS THE CASE ON FORECAST
DAYS 6-7...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL FEATURES SO HAVE
JUST PLAYED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA AFTER 14Z...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM KSLK TO KMPV WITH CONDITIONS LARGELY REMAINING VFR.
AFTER 18-21Z...SHOULD SEE A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH ALL
TERMINALS SKC BY 00-02Z EXCEPT FOR KRUT WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THE LONGER. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME IFR
BR/FG OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT KMPV/KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181303
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
903 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...THEN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 902 AM EDT TUESDAY...MODEST TWEAKS AS OF 900 AM...PRIMARILY TO
RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON PER LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA. ALSO ADDED AN
OUTSIDE SHOT OF A STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A DECENT
AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS WITH AIM ON CENTRAL/SRN VT BY LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...BUT PERHAPS JUST
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW STORMS. REST OF FCST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH A GENERALLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ON TAP WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY AROUND 70. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY TWEAKED SKY COVER JUST A
BIT AS SOME PLACES STARTING WITH A BIT MORE SUN.
OTHERWISE...POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY. CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT. THE
TROUGH IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL ONLY HAVE THE
SHOWER THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS
NON-EXISTENT SO NO NEED TO MENTION THUNDER. THE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...TONIGHT STARTS OUR FIRST EXTENDED PERIOD
IN AWHILE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
WELL. THERMAL PROFILE SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THUS WE WILL BE APPROACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY INTACT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WHICH BEGINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE COAST.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL...BUT A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SAID HEAT...BUT BOTH SHOW A
GENERAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT TRENDS MORE WESTERLY GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME DAILY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AS USUALLY IS THE CASE ON FORECAST
DAYS 6-7...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL FEATURES SO HAVE
JUST PLAYED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA AFTER 14Z...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM KSLK TO KMPV WITH CONDITIONS LARGELY REMAINING VFR.
AFTER 18-21Z...SHOULD SEE A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH ALL
TERMINALS SKC BY 00-02Z EXCEPT FOR KRUT WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THE LONGER. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME IFR
BR/FG OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT KMPV/KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...THEN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY
TWEAKED SKY COVER JUST A BIT AS SOME PLACES STARTING WITH A BIT
MORE SUN. OTHERWISE...POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY. CLOUDS AND
SOME SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT. THE
TROUGH IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL ONLY HAVE THE
SHOWER THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS
NON-EXISTENT SO NO NEED TO MENTION THUNDER. THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TODAY. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...TONIGHT STARTS OUR FIRST EXTENDED PERIOD
IN AWHILE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
WELL. THERMAL PROFILE SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THUS WE WILL BE APPROACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY INTACT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WHICH BEGINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE COAST.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL...BUT A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SAID HEAT...BUT BOTH SHOW A
GENERAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT TRENDS MORE WESTERLY GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME DAILY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AS USUALLY IS THE CASE ON FORECAST
DAYS 6-7...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL FEATURES SO HAVE
JUST PLAYED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA AFTER 14Z...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM KSLK TO KMPV WITH CONDITIONS LARGELY REMAINING VFR.
AFTER 18-21Z...SHOULD SEE A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH ALL
TERMINALS SKC BY 00-02Z EXCEPT FOR KRUT WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THE LONGER. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME IFR
BR/FG OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT KMPV/KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181112
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...THEN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY.
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL
ONLY HAVE THE SHOWER THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. INSTABILITY IS NON-EXISTENT SO NO NEED TO MENTION THUNDER.
THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...TONIGHT STARTS OUR FIRST EXTENDED PERIOD
IN AWHILE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
WELL. THERMAL PROFILE SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THUS WE WILL BE APPROACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY INTACT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WHICH BEGINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE COAST.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL...BUT A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SAID HEAT...BUT BOTH SHOW A
GENERAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT TRENDS MORE WESTERLY GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME DAILY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AS USUALLY IS THE CASE ON FORECAST
DAYS 6-7...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL FEATURES SO HAVE
JUST PLAYED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA AFTER 14Z...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM KSLK TO KMPV WITH CONDITIONS LARGELY REMAINING VFR.
AFTER 18-21Z...SHOULD SEE A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH ALL
TERMINALS SKC BY 00-02Z EXCEPT FOR KRUT WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THE LONGER. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME IFR
BR/FG OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT KMPV/KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 180812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...THEN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY.
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL
ONLY HAVE THE SHOWER THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. INSTABILITY IS NON-EXISTENT SO NO NEED TO MENTION THUNDER.
THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...TONIGHT STARTS OUR FIRST EXTENDED PERIOD
IN AWHILE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
WELL. THERMAL PROFILE SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THUS WE WILL BE APPROACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY INTACT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WHICH BEGINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE COAST.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL...BUT A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SAID HEAT...BUT BOTH SHOW A
GENERAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT TRENDS MORE WESTERLY GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME DAILY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AS USUALLY IS THE CASE ON FORECAST
DAYS 6-7...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL FEATURES SO HAVE
JUST PLAYED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 12Z WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING KMSS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE WITH PLENTY MORE UPSTREAM AS WELL. ONLY
CLEAR AREA IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WHICH HAS LED TO SOME BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AT KMSS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA AFTER 14Z...BUT LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KSLK TO
KMPV WITH CONDITIONS LARGELY REMAINING VFR. AFTER 18Z...SHOULD SEE
A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH ALL TERMINALS SKC BY 00Z EXCEPT FOR KRUT WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 180541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT TUESDAY...BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...LOOKS LIKE A BIT MORE CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS UPWARD TO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON MORNING LOWS AND
HAVE TWEAKED UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE STILL LOOKS
LIKE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THOUGH SOME CLOUDS LINGER WITH UPPER TROF
OVER THE AREA. UPPER TROF FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...DECENT CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST (THU/FRI) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK AND DYING SURFACE FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH
ONLY A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TRAILING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO TREND AWAY
FROM CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VARIABILITY AT NIGHT OWING TO NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE LOWER...THOUGH WITH EVIDENCE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
INTO OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT BY ANY MEANS...BUT DEFINITELY LOOKING MORE
LIKE SUMMER AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES DOES REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH HOWEVER...SO ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HERE AND
THERE THROUGH THESE LATER PERIODS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...VERY
DIFFICULT TO ATTEMPT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL COMPLEXES AND TOOK A MORE
PRAGMATIC APPROACH AT THIS POINT OFFERING ONLY LOWER CHC POPS (25
TO 35%) UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 12Z WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING KMSS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE WITH PLENTY MORE UPSTREAM AS WELL. ONLY
CLEAR AREA IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WHICH HAS LED TO SOME BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AT KMSS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA AFTER 14Z...BUT LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KSLK TO
KMPV WITH CONDITIONS LARGELY REMAINING VFR. AFTER 18Z...SHOULD SEE
A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH ALL TERMINALS SKC BY 00Z EXCEPT FOR KRUT WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 180520
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT TUESDAY...BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...LOOKS LIKE A BIT MORE CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS UPWARD TO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON MORNING LOWS AND
HAVE TWEAKED UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE STILL LOOKS
LIKE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THOUGH SOME CLOUDS LINGER WITH UPPER TROF
OVER THE AREA. UPPER TROF FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...DECENT CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST (THU/FRI) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK AND DYING SURFACE FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH
ONLY A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TRAILING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO TREND AWAY
FROM CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VARIABILITY AT NIGHT OWING TO NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE LOWER...THOUGH WITH EVIDENCE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
INTO OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT BY ANY MEANS...BUT DEFINITELY LOOKING MORE
LIKE SUMMER AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES DOES REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH HOWEVER...SO ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HERE AND
THERE THROUGH THESE LATER PERIODS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...VERY
DIFFICULT TO ATTEMPT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL COMPLEXES AND TOOK A MORE
PRAGMATIC APPROACH AT THIS POINT OFFERING ONLY LOWER CHC POPS (25
TO 35%) UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...QUIETER WEATHER NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS WITH SCT/BKN VFR CEILINGS DUE TO LEFTOVER DIURNAL
CUMULUS. THESE WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNSET YIELDING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. FOG WITH VLIFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CONCERN AFTER
06Z AT RUT AND MPV THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY SINCE BOTH LOCATIONS
DID SEE SOME RAINFALL TODAY. THINK SLK WILL ALSO STAND TO GET AT
LEAST IFR MIST...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY HELP KEEP MORE PERSISTENT FOG FROM SETTING IN.
NORTH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AT RUT AND SLK AFTER
18Z TUESDAY WHERE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE INITIALLY BUT TENDING TO BECOME NORTHERLY AT OR
BELOW 10KTS...EXCEPT AT PBG DUE TO LAKE BREEZE SOUTHEASTERLIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS END EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z
EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR TWO TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 180317
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1117 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1112 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND WILL DROP SOUTH OF
VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL A FEW SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF
FRONT...WHICH WILL TAPER OFF AFTER FROPA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FOR REST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS
AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AND ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO CLIMO FAVORED AREAS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. BY 9 PM
SHOWERS WILL BE DONE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THOUGH SOME CLOUDS LINGER WITH UPPER TROF
OVER THE AREA. UPPER TROF FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...DECENT CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST (THU/FRI) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK AND DYING SURFACE FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH
ONLY A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TRAILING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO TREND AWAY
FROM CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VARIABILITY AT NIGHT OWING TO NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE LOWER...THOUGH WITH EVIDENCE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
INTO OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT BY ANY MEANS...BUT DEFINITELY LOOKING MORE
SUMMERLIKE AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES DOES REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH HOWEVER...SO ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HERE AND
THERE THROUGH THESE LATER PERIODS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...VERY
DIFFICULT TO ATTEMPT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL COMPLEXES AND TOOK A MORE
PRAGMATIC APPROACH AT THIS POINT OFFERING ONLY LOWER CHC POPS (25
TO 35%) UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...QUIETER WEATHER NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS WITH SCT/BKN VFR CEILINGS DUE TO LEFTOVER DIURNAL
CUMULUS. THESE WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNSET YIELDING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. FOG WITH VLIFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CONCERN AFTER
06Z AT RUT AND MPV THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY SINCE BOTH LOCATIONS
DID SEE SOME RAINFALL TODAY. THINK SLK WILL ALSO STAND TO GET AT
LEAST IFR MIST...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY HELP KEEP MORE PERSISTENT FOG FROM SETTING IN.
NORTH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AT RUT AND SLK AFTER
18Z TUESDAY WHERE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE INITIALLY BUT TENDING TO BECOME NORTHERLY AT OR
BELOW 10KTS...EXCEPT AT PBG DUE TO LAKE BREEZE SOUTHEASTERLIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS END EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z
EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR TWO TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 172349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 741 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CLEAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. COVERAGE NOT ALL THAT GREAT
HOWEVER...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT ANY THREAT WILL END BY
AROUND SUNSET. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON LATEST DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. BY 9 PM
SHOWERS WILL BE DONE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THOUGH SOME CLOUDS LINGER WITH UPPER TROF
OVER THE AREA. UPPER TROF FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...DECENT CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST (THU/FRI) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK AND DYING SURFACE FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH
ONLY A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TRAILING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO TREND AWAY
FROM CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VARIABILITY AT NIGHT OWING TO NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE LOWER...THOUGH WITH EVIDENCE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
INTO OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT BY ANY MEANS...BUT DEFINITELY LOOKING MORE
SUMMERLIKE AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES DOES REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH HOWEVER...SO ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HERE AND
THERE THROUGH THESE LATER PERIODS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...VERY
DIFFICULT TO ATTEMPT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL COMPLEXES AND TOOK A MORE
PRAGMATIC APPROACH AT THIS POINT OFFERING ONLY LOWER CHC POPS (25
TO 35%) UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...QUIETER WEATHER NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS WITH SCT/BKN VFR CEILINGS DUE TO LEFTOVER DIURNAL
CUMULUS. THESE WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNSET YIELDING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. FOG WITH VLIFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CONCERN AFTER
06Z AT RUT AND MPV THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY SINCE BOTH LOCATIONS
DID SEE SOME RAINFALL TODAY. THINK SLK WILL ALSO STAND TO GET AT
LEAST IFR MIST...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY HELP KEEP MORE PERSISTENT FOG FROM SETTING IN.
NORTH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AT RUT AND SLK AFTER
18Z TUESDAY WHERE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE INITIALLY BUT TENDING TO BECOME NORTHERLY AT OR
BELOW 10KTS...EXCEPT AT PBG DUE TO LAKE BREEZE SOUTHEASTERLIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS END EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z
EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR TWO TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 172331
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA. BY 9 PM SHOWERS WILL BE DONE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THOUGH SOME CLOUDS LINGER WITH UPPER TROF
OVER THE AREA. UPPER TROF FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...DECENT CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST (THU/FRI) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK AND DYING SURFACE FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH
ONLY A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TRAILING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO TREND AWAY
FROM CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VARIABILITY AT NIGHT OWING TO NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE LOWER...THOUGH WITH EVIDENCE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
INTO OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT BY ANY MEANS...BUT DEFINITELY LOOKING MORE
SUMMERLIKE AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES DOES REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH HOWEVER...SO ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HERE AND
THERE THROUGH THESE LATER PERIODS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...VERY
DIFFICULT TO ATTEMPT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL COMPLEXES AND TOOK A MORE
PRAGMATIC APPROACH AT THIS POINT OFFERING ONLY LOWER CHC POPS (25
TO 35%) UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...QUIETER WEATHER NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS WITH SCT/BKN VFR CEILINGS DUE TO LEFTOVER DIURNAL
CUMULUS. THESE WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNSET YIELDING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. FOG WITH VLIFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CONCERN AFTER
06Z AT RUT AND MPV THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY SINCE BOTH LOCATIONS
DID SEE SOME RAINFALL TODAY. THINK SLK WILL ALSO STAND TO GET AT
LEAST IFR MIST...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY HELP KEEP MORE PERSISTENT FOG FROM SETTING IN.
NORTH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AT RUT AND SLK AFTER
18Z TUESDAY WHERE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE INITIALLY BUT TENDING TO BECOME NORTHERLY AT OR
BELOW 10KTS...EXCEPT AT PBG DUE TO LAKE BREEZE SOUTHEASTERLIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS END EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z
EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR TWO TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 172005
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA. BY 9 PM SHOWERS WILL BE DONE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THOUGH SOME CLOUDS LINGER WITH UPPER TROF
OVER THE AREA. UPPER TROF FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...DECENT CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST (THU/FRI) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK AND DYING SURFACE FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH
ONLY A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TRAILING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO TREND AWAY
FROM CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VARIABILITY AT NIGHT OWING TO NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE LOWER...THOUGH WITH EVIDENCE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
INTO OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT BY ANY MEANS...BUT DEFINITELY LOOKING MORE
SUMMERLIKE AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES DOES REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH HOWEVER...SO ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HERE AND
THERE THROUGH THESE LATER PERIODS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...VERY
DIFFICULT TO ATTEMPT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL COMPLEXES AND TOOK A MORE
PRAGMATIC APPROACH AT THIS POINT OFFERING ONLY LOWER CHC POPS (25
TO 35%) UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
00Z WITH SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST THREAT OF
TSRA FROM KSLK-KBTV-K1V4 SOUTHWARD. SCT/BKN CIGS GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEFLY MVFR IN HEAVIER CORES ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR
VSBY POSSIBLE. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KNOTS. AFTER 00Z
MAINLY PCPN FREE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY
BR/FG AND IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK...AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH...MAINLY AFFECTING KRUT TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR TWO TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY STORMS IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE WATERS SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. THE
THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS HAS ENDED...THOUGH BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY STILL OCCUR...AS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE VARIABLE NORTH TO SOUTH
DOWN THE LAKE...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY TREND WESTERLY FROM 5 TO 15
KNOTS THIS EVENING. WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT...THOUGH LOCALLY
HIGHER TO NEAR 2 FEET WITH A LIGHT CHOP ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE
AND IN BAYS WITH A WESTERLY EXPOSURE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171935
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SEE DAYTIME MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO 70S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT 00Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL SHOW OUR REGION TO BE TOO
STABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED SCTD
SHOWERS AND TS AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AGAIN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...SOME SCTD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH NW FLOW
BRINGING IN CAA...WITH MAXES IN THE 60S TO L70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD PROGRESSION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. ANY SHOWERS WILL
END...WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
L60S-L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...DECENT CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST (THU/FRI) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK AND DYING SURFACE FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH
ONLY A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TRAILING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO TREND AWAY FROM
CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VARIABILITY AT NIGHT OWING TO NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE LOWER...THOUGH WITH EVIDENCE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO
OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. NOT
EXCESSIVELY HOT BY ANY MEANS...BUT DEFINITELY LOOKING MORE
SUMMERLIKE AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES DOES REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH HOWEVER...SO ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HERE AND
THERE THROUGH THESE LATER PERIODS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...VERY
DIFFICULT TO ATTEMPT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL COMPLEXES AND TOOK A MORE
PRAGMATIC APPROACH AT THIS POINT OFFERING ONLY LOWER CHC POPS (25
TO 35%) UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
00Z WITH SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST THREAT OF
TSRA FROM KSLK-KBTV-K1V4 SOUTHWARD. SCT/BKN CIGS GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEFLY MVFR IN HEAVIER CORES ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR
VSBY POSSIBLE. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KNOTS. AFTER 00Z
MAINLY PCPN FREE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY
BR/FG AND IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK...AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH...MAINLY AFFECTING KRUT TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR TWO TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY STORMS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE SOUTHERN LAKE WATERS SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. THE THREAT OF
STRONGER STORMS HAS ENDED...THOUGH BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY STILL OCCUR...AS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE VARIABLE NORTH TO SOUTH DOWN THE
LAKE...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY TREND WESTERLY FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER TO
NEAR 2 FEET WITH A LIGHT CHOP ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND IN BAYS
WITH A WESTERLY EXPOSURE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SEE DAYTIME MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO 70S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT 00Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL SHOW OUR REGION TO BE TOO
STABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED SCTD
SHOWERS AND TS AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AGAIN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...SOME SCTD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH NW FLOW
BRINGING IN CAA...WITH MAXES IN THE 60S TO L70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD PROGRESSION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. ANY SHOWERS WILL
END...WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
L60S-L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...DECENT CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST (THU/FRI) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK AND DYING SURFACE FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH
ONLY A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TRAILING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO TREND AWAY FROM
CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VARIABILITY AT NIGHT OWING TO NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE LOWER...THOUGH WITH EVIDENCE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO
OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. NOT
EXCESSIVELY HOT BY ANY MEANS...BUT DEFINITELY LOOKING MORE
SUMMERLIKE AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES DOES REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH HOWEVER...SO ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HERE AND
THERE THROUGH THESE LATER PERIODS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...VERY
DIFFICULT TO ATTEMPT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL COMPLEXES AND TOOK A MORE
PRAGMATIC APPROACH AT THIS POINT OFFERING ONLY LOWER CHC POPS (25
TO 35%) UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
00Z WITH SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST THREAT OF
TSRA FROM KSLK-KBTV-K1V4 SOUTHWARD. SCT/BKN CIGS GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEFLY MVFR IN HEAVIER CORES ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR
VSBY POSSIBLE. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KNOTS. AFTER 00Z
MAINLY PCPN FREE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY
BR/FG AND IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK...AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH...MAINLY AFFECTING KRUT TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR TWO TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT
OF ANY STRONGER STORMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE FROM BURLINGTON SOUTHWARD. WINDS ARE ALREADY VEERING TO
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECTED THIS GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER TO NEAR 2 FEET
WITH A LIGHT CHOP ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND IN BAYS WITH A
WESTERLY EXPOSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SEE DAYTIME MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO 70S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT 00Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL SHOW OUR REGION TO BE TOO
STABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED SCTD
SHOWERS AND TS AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AGAIN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...SOME SCTD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH NW FLOW
BRINGING IN CAA...WITH MAXES IN THE 60S TO L70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD PROGRESSION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. ANY SHOWERS WILL
END...WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
L60S-L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESSENTIALLY REMAINING
OVER THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
DESPITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO
OUR AREA. THUS GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
00Z WITH SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST THREAT OF
TSRA FROM KSLK-KBTV-K1V4 SOUTHWARD. SCT/BKN CIGS GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEFLY MVFR IN HEAVIER CORES ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR
VSBY POSSIBLE. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KNOTS. AFTER 00Z
MAINLY PCPN FREE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY
BR/FG AND IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK...AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH...MAINLY AFFECTING KRUT TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR TWO TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT
OF ANY STRONGER STORMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE FROM BURLINGTON SOUTHWARD. WINDS ARE ALREADY VEERING TO
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECTED THIS GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER TO NEAR 2 FEET
WITH A LIGHT CHOP ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND IN BAYS WITH A
WESTERLY EXPOSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SEE DAYTIME MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO 70S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT 00Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL SHOW OUR REGION TO BE TOO
STABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED SCTD
SHOWERS AND TS AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AGAIN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...SOME SCTD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH NW FLOW
BRINGING IN CAA...WITH MAXES IN THE 60S TO L70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD PROGRESSION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. ANY SHOWERS WILL
END...WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
L60S-L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESSENTIALLY REMAINING
OVER THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
DESPITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO
OUR AREA. THUS GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED BACK
INTO THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES...WHICH IS WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. WATCH FOR A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED VARIABLE WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE RULE
WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 00Z AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH CEILINGS RANGING LINGERING EARLY IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY...BUT IMPROVING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AFTER 02Z AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHWEST ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT
OF ANY STRONGER STORMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE FROM BURLINGTON SOUTHWARD. WINDS ARE ALREADY VEERING TO
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECTED THIS GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER TO NEAR 2 FEET
WITH A LIGHT CHOP ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND IN BAYS WITH A
WESTERLY EXPOSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG
MARINE...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1128 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SEE DAYTIME MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO 70S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT MONDAY...ADJUSTED TEMP/DWPT AND SKY GRIDS BASED
ON OBS. MOST CLEARING TO OUR SOUTH WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
FOR THIS AFTN.

MODELS SHOWING 2 DISTINCT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...ONE EARLIER IN THE
DAY/EARLY AFTN WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WITH SW WINDS SHIFTING
MORE W BEHIND IT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT...FURTHER SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW/N.
AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING SKIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY TODAY.
LIMITING FACTOR OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 400+J/KG...BUT SOME
AREAS OVER VT NEARING 800-900J/KG COULD BE OVERDONE BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND AREAS SOUTH...EXPECTING LIFTED INDICES OF -4C TO
-6C AND WIND SHEAR...0-1KM AT 15-25KTS AND 0-6KM AT 40-50KTS. THIS
SHEAR COMBINED WITH BUFKIT FCST STORM MOTION OF 30-40 KTS COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NAM AND GFS SEEM TO BE LACKING IN UPPER JET
DYNAMICS/SUPPORT...WITH 250MB JET STREAK ONLY SHOWING UP AROUND
WRN NY/PA AROUND 06S...FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE WEAK AS IT PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED SCTD
SHOWERS AND TS AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AGAIN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...SOME SCTD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH NW FLOW
BRINGING IN CAA...WITH MAXES IN THE 60S TO L70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD PROGRESSION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. ANY SHOWERS WILL
END...WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
L60S-L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESSENTIALLY REMAINING
OVER THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
DESPITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO
OUR AREA. THUS GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED BACK
INTO THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES...WHICH IS WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. WATCH FOR A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED VARIABLE WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE RULE
WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 00Z AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH CEILINGS RANGING LINGERING EARLY IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY...BUT IMPROVING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AFTER 02Z AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHWEST ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT
OF ANY STRONGER STORMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE FROM BURLINGTON SOUTHWARD. WINDS ARE ALREADY VEERING TO
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECTED THIS GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER TO NEAR 2 FEET
WITH A LIGHT CHOP ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND IN BAYS WITH A
WESTERLY EXPOSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG
MARINE...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171434
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SEE DAYTIME MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO 70S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT MONDAY...ADJUSTED TEMP/DWPT AND SKY GRIDS BASED
ON OBS. MOST CLEARING TO OUR SOUTH WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
FOR THIS AFTN.

MODELS SHOWING 2 DISTINCT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...ONE EARLIER IN THE
DAY/EARLY AFTN WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WITH SW WINDS SHIFTING
MORE W BEHIND IT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT...FURTHER SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW/N.
AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING SKIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY TODAY.
LIMITING FACTOR OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 400+J/KG...BUT SOME
AREAS OVER VT NEARING 800-900J/KG COULD BE OVERDONE BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND AREAS SOUTH...EXPECTING LIFTED INDICES OF -4C TO
-6C AND WIND SHEAR...0-1KM AT 15-25KTS AND 0-6KM AT 40-50KTS. THIS
SHEAR COMBINED WITH BUFKIT FCST STORM MOTION OF 30-40 KTS COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NAM AND GFS SEEM TO BE LACKING IN UPPER JET
DYNAMICS/SUPPORT...WITH 250MB JET STREAK ONLY SHOWING UP AROUND
WRN NY/PA AROUND 06S...FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE WEAK AS IT PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED SCTD
SHOWERS AND TS AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AGAIN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...SOME SCTD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH NW FLOW
BRINGING IN CAA...WITH MAXES IN THE 60S TO L70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD PROGRESSION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. ANY SHOWERS WILL
END...WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
L60S-L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESSENTIALLY REMAINING
OVER THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
DESPITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO
OUR AREA. THUS GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED BACK
INTO THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES...WHICH IS WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. WATCH FOR A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED VARIABLE WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE RULE
WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 00Z AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH CEILINGS RANGING LINGERING EARLY IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY...BUT IMPROVING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AFTER 02Z AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHWEST ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SEE DAYTIME MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO 70S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 733 AM EDT MONDAY...ADJUSTED TEMP/DWPT AND SKY GRIDS BASED
ON OBS. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER NEAR INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...LIMITED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING REGARDING TS TO
LOWER 3/4THS OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE AFTN. A COUPLE BREAKS
THIS MORNING ARE STILL PSBL...BUT MOST CLEARING TO OUR SOUTH
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOR THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AS AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVES OVER
THE AREA. THIS BREAK WON/T LAST AS CLOUDS NORTH OF WRN END OF
LAKE ONTARIO ALREADY SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING EWD. S-SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...KEEPING THINGS
RELATIVELY MOIST.

MODELS SHOWING 2 DISTINCT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...ONE EARLIER IN THE
DAY/EARLY AFTN WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WITH SW WINDS
SHIFTING MORE W BEHIND IT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT...FURTHER SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NW/N. AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING SKIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP INCREASE
INSTABILITY TODAY. LIMITING FACTOR OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES OF
400+J/KG...BUT SOME AREAS OVER VT NEARING 800-900J/KG COULD BE
OVERDONE BY MODEL GUIDANCE. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AREAS SOUTH...EXPECTING
LIFTED INDICES OF -4C TO -6C AND WIND SHEAR...0-1KM AT 15-25KTS
AND 0-6KM AT 40-50KTS. THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH BUFKIT FCST STORM
MOTION OF 30-40 KTS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. NAM AND GFS SEEM TO
BE LACKING IN UPPER JET DYNAMICS/SUPPORT...WITH 250MB JET STREAK
ONLY SHOWING UP AROUND WRN NY/PA AROUND 06S...FAR BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAK AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED SCTD
SHOWERS AND TS AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AGAIN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...SOME SCTD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH NW FLOW
BRINGING IN CAA...WITH MAXES IN THE 60S TO L70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD PROGRESSION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. ANY SHOWERS WILL
END...WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
L60S-L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESSENTIALLY REMAINING
OVER THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
DESPITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO
OUR AREA. THUS GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED BACK
INTO THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES...WHICH IS WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. WATCH FOR A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED VARIABLE WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE RULE
WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 00Z AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH CEILINGS RANGING LINGERING EARLY IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY...BUT IMPROVING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AFTER 02Z AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHWEST ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SEE DAYTIME MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO 70S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 733 AM EDT MONDAY...ADJUSTED TEMP/DWPT AND SKY GRIDS BASED
ON OBS. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER NEAR INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...LIMITED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING REGARDING TS TO
LOWER 3/4THS OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE AFTN. A COUPLE BREAKS
THIS MORNING ARE STILL PSBL...BUT MOST CLEARING TO OUR SOUTH
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOR THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AS AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVES OVER
THE AREA. THIS BREAK WON/T LAST AS CLOUDS NORTH OF WRN END OF
LAKE ONTARIO ALREADY SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING EWD. S-SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...KEEPING THINGS
RELATIVELY MOIST.

MODELS SHOWING 2 DISTINCT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...ONE EARLIER IN THE
DAY/EARLY AFTN WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WITH SW WINDS
SHIFTING MORE W BEHIND IT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT...FURTHER SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NW/N. AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING SKIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP INCREASE
INSTABILITY TODAY. LIMITING FACTOR OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES OF
400+J/KG...BUT SOME AREAS OVER VT NEARING 800-900J/KG COULD BE
OVERDONE BY MODEL GUIDANCE. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AREAS SOUTH...EXPECTING
LIFTED INDICES OF -4C TO -6C AND WIND SHEAR...0-1KM AT 15-25KTS
AND 0-6KM AT 40-50KTS. THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH BUFKIT FCST STORM
MOTION OF 30-40 KTS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. NAM AND GFS SEEM TO
BE LACKING IN UPPER JET DYNAMICS/SUPPORT...WITH 250MB JET STREAK
ONLY SHOWING UP AROUND WRN NY/PA AROUND 06S...FAR BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAK AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED SCTD
SHOWERS AND TS AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AGAIN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...SOME SCTD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH NW FLOW
BRINGING IN CAA...WITH MAXES IN THE 60S TO L70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD PROGRESSION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. ANY SHOWERS WILL
END...WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
L60S-L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESSENTIALLY REMAINING
OVER THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
DESPITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO
OUR AREA. THUS GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING WITH ANYWHERE FROM VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z AND THIS SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT THE FOG AND JUST SOME MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN. WATCH FOR A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED VARIABLE WIND GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH ANY OF THE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 00Z AND
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE
VFR CATEGORY WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170848
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
448 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SEE DAYTIME MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO 70S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT MONDAY...FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR
OUT THIS MORNING AS AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVES OVER THE
AREA. THIS BREAK WON/T LAST AS CLOUDS NORTH OF WRN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALREADY SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING EWD. S-SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...KEEPING THINGS
RELATIVELY MOIST.

MODELS SHOWING 2 DISTINCT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...ONE EARLIER IN THE
DAY/EARLY AFTN WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WITH SW WINDS
SHIFTING MORE W BEHIND IT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT...FURTHER SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NW/N. AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING SKIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP INCREASE
INSTABILITY TODAY. LIMITING FACTOR OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES OF
400+J/KG...BUT SOME AREAS OVER VT NEARING 800-900J/KG COULD BE
OVERDONE BY MODEL GUIDANCE. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AREAS SOUTH...EXPECTING
LIFTED INDICES OF -4C TO -6C AND WIND SHEAR...0-1KM AT 15-25KTS
AND 0-6KM AT 40-50KTS. THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH BUFKIT FCST STORM
MOTION OF 30-40 KTS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. NAM AND GFS SEEM TO
BE LACKING IN UPPER JET DYNAMICS/SUPPORT...WITH 250MB JET STREAK
ONLY SHOWING UP AROUND WRN NY/PA AROUND 06S...FAR BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAK AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED SCTD
SHOWERS AND TS AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AGAIN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...SOME SCTD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH NW FLOW
BRINGING IN CAA...WITH MAXES IN THE 60S TO L70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD PROGRESSION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. ANY SHOWERS WILL
END...WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
L60S-L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESSENTIALLY REMAINING
OVER THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
DESPITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO
OUR AREA. THUS GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING WITH ANYWHERE FROM VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z AND THIS SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT THE FOG AND JUST SOME MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN. WATCH FOR A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED VARIABLE WIND GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH ANY OF THE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 00Z AND
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE
VFR CATEGORY WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS EVEN LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT MONDAY...SOME WEAKENING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN VT...AS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OTTAWA
VALLEY WEAKEN. THE OTTAWA VALLEY STORMS ARE TRAVELING ESE AND MAY
GLANCE THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAINLY ACROSS VT...BUT JUST AS
SHOWERS. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS AND SOME SHOWERS MOVING SE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO...SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR...ALLOWING FOR MORE FOG
TO DEVELOP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...HEADING EAST.
THESE ARE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY AND ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SAME REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. NO CHANGES MADE TO REST OF FORECAST AREA
WHERE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS EXPECTED. NO CHANGE MADE TO MIN TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND SCT RAIN
SHOWERS...NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY MUCH...GENERALLY
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...FOR MONDAY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LIKELY BE STUCK WITH
SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IF WE CAN BREAK OUT
EARLY ENOUGH AND THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE...SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
IS HINTED AT IN SOME OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HI-RES NAM GUIDANCE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
MAIN COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH WEAK) TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES
FROM AROUND 500 J/KG NORTH TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. CAPE PROFILE IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE WITH TALL AND SKINNY CAPE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SHEAR PROFILE IS DECENT (40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR)...SO IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE SOME STORMS CAN BE BECOME STRONG
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER OVERALL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
IS ALSO LAGGING BEHIND WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECTING PRETTY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER SO LOWS IN THE 50S AGAIN APPEAR REASONABLE.

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN NORTHEAST VERMONT.
SHOULD BE SOME SUN AROUND AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTING TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AFTER
PERUSAL OF THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE SUITE. SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD (WED/THU) WILL FEATURE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ALOFT BY WEAK TO MODEST CYCLONIC
FLOW AS WE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. BY FRIDAY
EVIDENCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY AS PRIMARY
ENERGY PASSES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY IN THEIR ORIENTATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...NONETHELESS
ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND NEGLIGIBLE H5 HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORT RUNNING IDEA OF CAPPING ANY POPS AND THREAT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%). PER AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB THERMAL PROFILES...KEPT WITH PRIOR IDEA OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...WARMING GRADUALLY BY 2-3
DEGREES EACH DAY AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND BY WHICH TIME MAX
TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE WILL BE COMMON. LOWS TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TREND...THOUGH WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL VARIABILITY
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL
RADIATIVE EFFECTS. BY SUNDAY FORECAST TRENDS MORE UNCERTAIN AS
WEAK UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS LIFTING OUT AND IS REPLACED BY
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THERE COULD BE A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR TWO AFFECT THE REGION AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY ENCROACH TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME RANGE HOWEVER
AND HAVE INTRODUCED A NOMINAL 30 POP TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY AT THIS DISTANT TIME RANGE. MAX TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
MILD TO WARM...77 TO 83.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING WITH ANYWHERE FROM VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z AND THIS SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT THE FOG AND JUST SOME MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN. WATCH FOR A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED VARIABLE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS.
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 00Z AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END. VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH CEILINGS
RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER
18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS EVEN LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT MONDAY...SOME WEAKENING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN VT...AS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OTTAWA
VALLEY WEAKEN. THE OTTAWA VALLEY STORMS ARE TRAVELING ESE AND MAY
GLANCE THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAINLY ACROSS VT...BUT JUST AS
SHOWERS. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS AND SOME SHOWERS MOVING SE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO...SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR...ALLOWING FOR MORE FOG
TO DEVELOP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...HEADING EAST.
THESE ARE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY AND ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SAME REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. NO CHANGES MADE TO REST OF FORECAST AREA
WHERE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS EXPECTED. NO CHANGE MADE TO MIN TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND SCT RAIN
SHOWERS...NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY
MUCH...GENERALLY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...FOR MONDAY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LIKELY BE STUCK WITH
SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IF WE CAN BREAK OUT
EARLY ENOUGH AND THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE...SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
IS HINTED AT IN SOME OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HI-RES NAM GUIDANCE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
MAIN COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH WEAK) TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES
FROM AROUND 500 J/KG NORTH TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. CAPE PROFILE IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE WITH TALL AND SKINNY CAPE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SHEAR PROFILE IS DECENT (40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR)...SO IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE SOME STORMS CAN BE BECOME STRONG
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER OVERALL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
IS ALSO LAGGING BEHIND WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECTING PRETTY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER SO LOWS IN THE 50S AGAIN APPEAR REASONABLE.

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN NORTHEAST VERMONT.
SHOULD BE SOME SUN AROUND AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTING TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AFTER
PERUSAL OF THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE SUITE. SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD (WED/THU) WILL FEATURE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ALOFT BY WEAK TO MODEST CYCLONIC
FLOW AS WE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. BY FRIDAY
EVIDENCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY AS PRIMARY
ENERGY PASSES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY IN THEIR ORIENTATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...NONETHELESS
ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND NEGLIGIBLE H5 HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORT RUNNING IDEA OF CAPPING ANY POPS AND THREAT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%). PER AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB THERMAL PROFILES...KEPT WITH PRIOR IDEA OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...WARMING GRADUALLY BY 2-3
DEGREES EACH DAY AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND BY WHICH TIME MAX
TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE WILL BE COMMON. LOWS TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TREND...THOUGH WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL VARIABILITY
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL
RADIATIVE EFFECTS. BY SUNDAY FORECAST TRENDS MORE UNCERTAIN AS
WEAK UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS LIFTING OUT AND IS REPLACED BY
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THERE COULD BE A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR TWO AFFECT THE REGION AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY ENCROACH TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME RANGE HOWEVER
AND HAVE INTRODUCED A NOMINAL 30 POP TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY AT THIS DISTANT TIME RANGE. MAX TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
MILD TO WARM...77 TO 83.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHOWERS. PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING
OVER THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AT MPV...SLK AND MSS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WON`T RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR MIST BUT
LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY DUE TO SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP MIX OUT ANY MIST WITH MOST OF THE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE LOWER CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...IT
COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z. POTENTIAL MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO DIFFER
REGARDING TIMING SO FOR NOW HAVE TREATED WITH VCSH. WINDS SOUTH
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TO CLEAR EARLY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT. CIGS GENERALLY VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER
18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1111 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS EVEN LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1044 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...HEADING EAST.
THESE ARE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY AND ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SAME REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. NO CHANGES MADE TO REST OF FORECAST AREA
WHERE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS EXPECTED. NO CHANGE MADE TO MIN TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AROUND 5 PM IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND 7 PM OR SO IN EASTERN VERMONT. THE HEAVIEST AND
STEADIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE RAIN HAS BECOME FOCUSED ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS AND JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN IS MUCH MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TODAY WILL BE
GENERALLY 0.5-0.75" ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK...0.25-0.50"
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK...AND 0.10-0.25" IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

EXPECTING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF
THIS...NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY MUCH...GENERALLY
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...FOR MONDAY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LIKELY BE STUCK WITH
SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IF WE CAN BREAK OUT
EARLY ENOUGH AND THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE...SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
IS HINTED AT IN SOME OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HI-RES NAM GUIDANCE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
MAIN COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH WEAK) TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES
FROM AROUND 500 J/KG NORTH TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. CAPE PROFILE IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE WITH TALL AND SKINNY CAPE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SHEAR PROFILE IS DECENT (40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR)...SO IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE SOME STORMS CAN BE BECOME STRONG
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER OVERALL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
IS ALSO LAGGING BEHIND WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECTING PRETTY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER SO LOWS IN THE 50S AGAIN APPEAR REASONABLE.

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN NORTHEAST VERMONT.
SHOULD BE SOME SUN AROUND AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTING TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AFTER
PERUSAL OF THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE SUITE. SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD (WED/THU) WILL FEATURE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ALOFT BY WEAK TO MODEST CYCLONIC
FLOW AS WE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. BY FRIDAY
EVIDENCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY AS PRIMARY
ENERGY PASSES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY IN THEIR ORIENTATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...NONETHELESS
ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND NEGLIGIBLE H5 HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORT RUNNING IDEA OF CAPPING ANY POPS AND THREAT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%). PER AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB THERMAL PROFILES...KEPT WITH PRIOR IDEA OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...WARMING GRADUALLY BY 2-3
DEGREES EACH DAY AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND BY WHICH TIME MAX
TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE WILL BE COMMON. LOWS TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TREND...THOUGH WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL VARIABILITY
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL
RADIATIVE EFFECTS. BY SUNDAY FORECAST TRENDS MORE UNCERTAIN AS
WEAK UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS LIFTING OUT AND IS REPLACED BY
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THERE COULD BE A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR TWO AFFECT THE REGION AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY ENCROACH TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME RANGE HOWEVER
AND HAVE INTRODUCED A NOMINAL 30 POP TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY AT THIS DISTANT TIME RANGE. MAX TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
MILD TO WARM...77 TO 83.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHOWERS. PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING
OVER THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AT MPV...SLK AND MSS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WON`T RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR MIST BUT
LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY DUE TO SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP MIX OUT ANY MIST WITH MOST OF THE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE LOWER CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...IT
COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z. POTENTIAL MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO DIFFER
REGARDING TIMING SO FOR NOW HAVE TREATED WITH VCSH. WINDS SOUTH
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TO CLEAR EARLY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT. CIGS GENERALLY VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER
18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 162357
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
757 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS EVEN LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT SUNDAY...RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION...BUT PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG.
GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED WELL. WITH LATEST UPDATE...MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS THIS EVENING SUCH AS
TEMPS/POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS FOR
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AROUND 5 PM IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND 7 PM OR SO IN EASTERN VERMONT. THE HEAVIEST AND
STEADIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE RAIN HAS BECOME FOCUSED ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS AND JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN IS MUCH MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TODAY WILL BE
GENERALLY 0.5-0.75" ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK...0.25-0.50"
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK...AND 0.10-0.25" IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

EXPECTING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF
THIS...NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY MUCH...GENERALLY
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...FOR MONDAY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LIKELY BE STUCK WITH
SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IF WE CAN BREAK OUT
EARLY ENOUGH AND THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE...SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
IS HINTED AT IN SOME OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HI-RES NAM GUIDANCE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
MAIN COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH WEAK) TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES
FROM AROUND 500 J/KG NORTH TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. CAPE PROFILE IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE WITH TALL AND SKINNY CAPE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SHEAR PROFILE IS DECENT (40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR)...SO IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE SOME STORMS CAN BE BECOME STRONG
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER OVERALL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
IS ALSO LAGGING BEHIND WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECTING PRETTY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER SO LOWS IN THE 50S AGAIN APPEAR REASONABLE.

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN NORTHEAST VERMONT.
SHOULD BE SOME SUN AROUND AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTING TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AFTER
PERUSAL OF THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE SUITE. SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD (WED/THU) WILL FEATURE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ALOFT BY WEAK TO MODEST CYCLONIC
FLOW AS WE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. BY FRIDAY
EVIDENCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY AS PRIMARY
ENERGY PASSES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY IN THEIR ORIENTATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...NONETHELESS
ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND NEGLIGIBLE H5 HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORT RUNNING IDEA OF CAPPING ANY POPS AND THREAT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%). PER AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB THERMAL PROFILES...KEPT WITH PRIOR IDEA OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...WARMING GRADUALLY BY 2-3
DEGREES EACH DAY AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND BY WHICH TIME MAX
TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE WILL BE COMMON. LOWS TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TREND...THOUGH WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL VARIABILITY
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL
RADIATIVE EFFECTS. BY SUNDAY FORECAST TRENDS MORE UNCERTAIN AS
WEAK UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS LIFTING OUT AND IS REPLACED BY
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THERE COULD BE A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR TWO AFFECT THE REGION AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY ENCROACH TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME RANGE HOWEVER
AND HAVE INTRODUCED A NOMINAL 30 POP TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY AT THIS DISTANT TIME RANGE. MAX TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
MILD TO WARM...77 TO 83.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHOWERS. PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING
OVER THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AT MPV...SLK AND MSS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WON`T RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR MIST BUT
LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY DUE TO SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP MIX OUT ANY MIST WITH MOST OF THE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE LOWER CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...IT
COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z. POTENTIAL MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO DIFFER
REGARDING TIMING SO FOR NOW HAVE TREATED WITH VCSH. WINDS SOUTH
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TO CLEAR EARLY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT. CIGS GENERALLY VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER
18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 162336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING...HOWEVER CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG OR DRIZZLE WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
EVEN LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAIN
COMING TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AROUND 5 PM IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND 7 PM OR SO IN
EASTERN VERMONT. THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE
RAIN HAS BECOME FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE
ANTICIPATED TRACK OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE
RAIN IS MUCH MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY 0.5-0.75" ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NEW YORK...0.25-0.50" ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK...AND 0.10-0.25" IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

EXPECTING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF
THIS...NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY MUCH...GENERALLY
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...FOR MONDAY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LIKELY BE STUCK WITH
SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IF WE CAN BREAK OUT
EARLY ENOUGH AND THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE...SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
IS HINTED AT IN SOME OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HI-RES NAM GUIDANCE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
MAIN COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH WEAK) TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES
FROM AROUND 500 J/KG NORTH TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. CAPE PROFILE IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE WITH TALL AND SKINNY CAPE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SHEAR PROFILE IS DECENT (40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR)...SO IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE SOME STORMS CAN BE BECOME STRONG
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER OVERALL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
IS ALSO LAGGING BEHIND WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECTING PRETTY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER SO LOWS IN THE 50S AGAIN APPEAR REASONABLE.

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN NORTHEAST VERMONT.
SHOULD BE SOME SUN AROUND AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTING TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AFTER
PERUSAL OF THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE SUITE. SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD (WED/THU) WILL FEATURE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ALOFT BY WEAK TO MODEST CYCLONIC
FLOW AS WE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. BY FRIDAY
EVIDENCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY AS PRIMARY
ENERGY PASSES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY IN THEIR ORIENTATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...NONETHELESS
ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND NEGLIGIBLE H5 HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORT RUNNING IDEA OF CAPPING ANY POPS AND THREAT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%). PER AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB THERMAL PROFILES...KEPT WITH PRIOR IDEA OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...WARMING GRADUALLY BY 2-3
DEGREES EACH DAY AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND BY WHICH TIME MAX
TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE WILL BE COMMON. LOWS TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TREND...THOUGH WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL VARIABILITY
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL
RADIATIVE EFFECTS. BY SUNDAY FORECAST TRENDS MORE UNCERTAIN AS
WEAK UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS LIFTING OUT AND IS REPLACED BY
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THERE COULD BE A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR TWO AFFECT THE REGION AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY ENCROACH TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME RANGE HOWEVER
AND HAVE INTRODUCED A NOMINAL 30 POP TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY AT THIS DISTANT TIME RANGE. MAX TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
MILD TO WARM...77 TO 83.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHOWERS. PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING
OVER THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AT MPV...SLK AND MSS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WON`T RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR MIST BUT
LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY DUE TO SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP MIX OUT ANY MIST WITH MOST OF THE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE LOWER CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...IT
COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z. POTENTIAL MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO DIFFER
REGARDING TIMING SO FOR NOW HAVE TREATED WITH VCSH. WINDS SOUTH
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TO CLEAR EARLY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT. CIGS GENERALLY VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER
18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO