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000
FXUS61 KBTV 300609
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ELONGATED VORT LOBES AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS NORTHERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO VT
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT WL INITIALLY FALL APART AS THEY
ENCOUNTER STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR EASTERN VT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CROSS
OVER VALUES. THINKING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL
RESULT IN MORE LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
DAYBREAK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 MPH BY 08-09Z. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. KSLK AND KMPV WILL HAVE PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z DUE TO VISIBILITY AND FOG. LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z
WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 300609
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ELONGATED VORT LOBES AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS NORTHERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO VT
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT WL INITIALLY FALL APART AS THEY
ENCOUNTER STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR EASTERN VT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CROSS
OVER VALUES. THINKING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL
RESULT IN MORE LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
DAYBREAK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 MPH BY 08-09Z. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. KSLK AND KMPV WILL HAVE PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z DUE TO VISIBILITY AND FOG. LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z
WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 300534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ELONGATED VORT LOBES AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS NORTHERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO VT
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT WL INITIALLY FALL APART AS THEY
ENCOUNTER STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR EASTERN VT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CROSS
OVER VALUES. THINKING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL
RESULT IN MORE LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
DAYBREAK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 MPH BY 08-09Z. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z-15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 300534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ELONGATED VORT LOBES AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS NORTHERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO VT
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT WL INITIALLY FALL APART AS THEY
ENCOUNTER STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR EASTERN VT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CROSS
OVER VALUES. THINKING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL
RESULT IN MORE LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
DAYBREAK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 MPH BY 08-09Z. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z-15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 300228
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1028 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ELONGATED VORT LOBES AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS NORTHERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WL SPREAD EAST INTO VT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WL INITIALLY FALL APART AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR
EASTERN VT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS
DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BLW CROSS OVER VALUES. THINKING CLOUDS
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ACRS THE
DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE DACKS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S SLK/NEK
TO M/U 50S CPV/SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z-15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 300228
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1028 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ELONGATED VORT LOBES AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS NORTHERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WL SPREAD EAST INTO VT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WL INITIALLY FALL APART AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR
EASTERN VT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS
DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BLW CROSS OVER VALUES. THINKING CLOUDS
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ACRS THE
DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE DACKS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S SLK/NEK
TO M/U 50S CPV/SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z-15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV











000
FXUS61 KBTV 292347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 734 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE MID LVL CLOUDS SOME ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THESE
CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE BY 10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M/U 50S.

PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z-15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 292347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 734 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE MID LVL CLOUDS SOME ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THESE
CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE BY 10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M/U 50S.

PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z-15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 292336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 734 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE MID LVL CLOUDS SOME ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THESE
CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE BY 10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M/U 50S.

PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 292336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 734 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE MID LVL CLOUDS SOME ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THESE
CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE BY 10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M/U 50S.

PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 291937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EARLY OVERCAST STRATUS THAT WAS
ONCE TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
EVOLVED INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS OF 70-75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO SHRINK OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX OUT AS INDICATED
BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. THUS
EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16Z
(NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SUN...SO
HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE
WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT
WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NERN VT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 291859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EARLY OVERCAST STRATUS THAT WAS
ONCE TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
EVOLVED INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS OF 70-75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO SHRINK OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX OUT AS INDICATED
BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. THUS
EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16Z
(NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SUN...SO
HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE
WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT
WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NERN VT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 291734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EARLY OVERCAST STRATUS THAT WAS
ONCE TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
EVOLVED INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS OF 70-75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO SHRINK OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX OUT AS INDICATED
BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. THUS
EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16Z
(NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SUN...SO
HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE
WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT
WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NERN VT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EARLY OVERCAST STRATUS THAT WAS
ONCE TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
EVOLVED INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS OF 70-75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO SHRINK OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX OUT AS INDICATED
BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. THUS
EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16Z
(NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SUN...SO
HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE
WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT
WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NERN VT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EARLY OVERCAST STRATUS THAT WAS
ONCE TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
EVOLVED INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS OF 70-75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO SHRINK OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX OUT AS INDICATED
BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. THUS
EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16Z
(NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SUN...SO
HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE
WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT
WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NERN VT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 291645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EARLY OVERCAST STRATUS THAT WAS
ONCE TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
EVOLVED INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS OF 70-75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO SHRINK OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX OUT AS INDICATED
BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. THUS
EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16Z
(NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SUN...SO
HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE
WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT
WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NERN VT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291401
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1001 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 954 AM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST
OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO
SHRINK OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX
OUT AS INDICATED BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT. THUS EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT
AROUND 16Z (NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING
SUN...SO HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 740 AM FRIDAY...
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NRN VT AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WILL DISSIPATE THRU 15-16Z (PER RAP LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS) OWING TO
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND PBL MIXING...AND PATCHY EARLY AM FOG WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN VICINITY OF HIGH
PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW - GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED TOWARD WARMER NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F RANGE. ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT DAY
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291401
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1001 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 954 AM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST
OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO
SHRINK OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX
OUT AS INDICATED BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT. THUS EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT
AROUND 16Z (NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING
SUN...SO HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 740 AM FRIDAY...
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NRN VT AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WILL DISSIPATE THRU 15-16Z (PER RAP LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS) OWING TO
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND PBL MIXING...AND PATCHY EARLY AM FOG WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN VICINITY OF HIGH
PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW - GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED TOWARD WARMER NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F RANGE. ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT DAY
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 291148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NRN VT AND IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE THRU 15-16Z (PER RAP LOW-LEVEL RH
TRENDS) OWING TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND PBL MIXING...AND PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z WITH NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW -
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED TOWARD WARMER NAM-
MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F RANGE. ALL IN ALL A
VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER RESPLENDENT BLUE
SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NRN VT AND IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE THRU 15-16Z (PER RAP LOW-LEVEL RH
TRENDS) OWING TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND PBL MIXING...AND PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z WITH NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW -
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED TOWARD WARMER NAM-
MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F RANGE. ALL IN ALL A
VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER RESPLENDENT BLUE
SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OWING TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE...AND PATCHY EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
12Z WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN LOW - GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED
TOWARD WARMER NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F
RANGE. ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 290741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OWING TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE...AND PATCHY EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
12Z WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN LOW - GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED
TOWARD WARMER NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F
RANGE. ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY ONE MINOR EXCEPTION. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KSLK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OWING TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE...AND PATCHY EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
12Z WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN LOW - GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED
TOWARD WARMER NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F
RANGE. ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY ONE MINOR EXCEPTION. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KSLK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 290530
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT FRIDAY...STRATOCUMULUS DECK GRADUALLY ERODING
EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT IR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY WHERE
1KM AGL WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WILL RESULT IN LESS TURBULENT MIXING
OF DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEW POINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEW POINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIR MASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEW POINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY ONE MINOR EXCEPTION. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KSLK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290530
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT FRIDAY...STRATOCUMULUS DECK GRADUALLY ERODING
EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT IR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY WHERE
1KM AGL WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WILL RESULT IN LESS TURBULENT MIXING
OF DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEW POINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEW POINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIR MASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEW POINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY ONE MINOR EXCEPTION. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KSLK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 290513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT FRIDAY...STRATOCUMULUS DECK GRADUALLY ERODING
EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT IR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY WHERE
1KM AGL WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WILL RESULT IN LESS TURBULENT MIXING
OF DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT 23Z THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF FOG
OBVERNIGHT...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF DENSE FOG AT KSLK WHERE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLIER AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FASTER THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 290513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT FRIDAY...STRATOCUMULUS DECK GRADUALLY ERODING
EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT IR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY WHERE
1KM AGL WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WILL RESULT IN LESS TURBULENT MIXING
OF DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT 23Z THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF FOG
OBVERNIGHT...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF DENSE FOG AT KSLK WHERE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLIER AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FASTER THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290229
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
CLEAR AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM EXITING LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTHEAST. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS THOUGH...SO JUST ADJUSTED TIMING OF CLEARING BACK A FEW
HOURS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. WITH THE DELAY IN CLEARING
DID OPT TO BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT STILL LOOKING AT
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT 23Z THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF FOG
OBVERNIGHT...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF DENSE FOG AT KSLK WHERE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLIER AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FASTER THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 290229
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
CLEAR AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM EXITING LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTHEAST. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS THOUGH...SO JUST ADJUSTED TIMING OF CLEARING BACK A FEW
HOURS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. WITH THE DELAY IN CLEARING
DID OPT TO BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT STILL LOOKING AT
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT 23Z THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF FOG
OBVERNIGHT...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF DENSE FOG AT KSLK WHERE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLIER AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FASTER THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 282357
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
757 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 619 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE
WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS TO MESH WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT 23Z THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF FOG
OBVERNIGHT...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF DENSE FOG AT KSLK WHERE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLIER AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FASTER THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 282222
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 619 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE
WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS TO MESH WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 282222
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 619 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE
WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS TO MESH WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM











000
FXUS61 KBTV 281930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE
IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERAGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE
IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERAGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
258 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE
IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...KGM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
258 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE
IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS FROM 65 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MOST
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING
SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL
SEE NOCTURNAL FOG 04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW
READINGS 38-39F IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
(INCLUDING KSLK).

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...KGM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS FROM 65 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MOST
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING
SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL
SEE NOCTURNAL FOG 04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW
READINGS 38-39F IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
(INCLUDING KSLK).

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...KGM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 281639
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS FROM 65 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MOST
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING
SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL
SEE NOCTURNAL FOG 04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW
READINGS 38-39F IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
(INCLUDING KSLK).

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281639
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS FROM 65 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MOST
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING
SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL
SEE NOCTURNAL FOG 04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW
READINGS 38-39F IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
(INCLUDING KSLK).

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH










000
FXUS61 KBTV 281350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS 65 TO 75 FOR MOST TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 745 AM THURSDAY...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD
ACROSS EASTERN VT AND NH AT 11Z WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS
MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND UPSTREAM
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING. NW
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS 14-22Z. SHOULD
GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO
NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT AND UPPER LEVEL
JET...WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP
ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A
TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASED MIXING. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO NERN VT...MOST
SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6 TO +7C
THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS 65 TO 75 FOR MOST TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 745 AM THURSDAY...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD
ACROSS EASTERN VT AND NH AT 11Z WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS
MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND UPSTREAM
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING. NW
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS 14-22Z. SHOULD
GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO
NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT AND UPPER LEVEL
JET...WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP
ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A
TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASED MIXING. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO NERN VT...MOST
SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6 TO +7C
THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS EASTERN VT AND NH AT 11Z
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS 14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS
FALLING THRU THE 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL.
THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH
A SECONDARY UPPER VORT AND UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH PASSES THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. OUTSIDE OF NRN
GREENS INTO NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS EASTERN VT AND NH AT 11Z
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS 14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS
FALLING THRU THE 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL.
THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH
A SECONDARY UPPER VORT AND UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH PASSES THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. OUTSIDE OF NRN
GREENS INTO NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS VT AT 07Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS
14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM
AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT
WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS
THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO
NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS VT AT 07Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS
14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM
AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT
WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS
THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO
NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS VT AT 07Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS
14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEWPOINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM
AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT
WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS
THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO
NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS VT AT 07Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS
14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEWPOINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM
AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT
WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS
THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO
NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE
CLEARED THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE MID-UPR 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEW POINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE
CLEARED THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE MID-UPR 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEW POINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE
CLEARED THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE MID-UPR 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A
LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE
CLEARED THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE MID-UPR 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A
LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FEW MORE MINOR UPDATES TO FORECAST
ADJUSTING TEMPS AND SKY TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS
TIME. LINE OF SPRINKLES ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN VERMONT
WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR LEAVING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN ITS WAKE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A
LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 280225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FEW MORE MINOR UPDATES TO FORECAST
ADJUSTING TEMPS AND SKY TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS
TIME. LINE OF SPRINKLES ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN VERMONT
WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR LEAVING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN ITS WAKE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A
LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A
LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A
LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK.
WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH
REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS
GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK.
WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH
REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS
GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271950
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS STEADY OR DECREASING
ACROSS NRN NY...RANGING FROM THE M50S TO L60S. A POST FRONTAL
TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE THE THE SLV...AS UPSTREAM OBS ARE NOT SHOWING PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DECREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
ERODE ANY SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LOOKING DOWNSTREAM...MOST OF VT CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S...WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO N/NW CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO SRN VT. SOME INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE U60S- L70S IN CENTRAL/SRN VT...RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING BUT
AS NW FLOW TAKES HOLD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY NIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH POST FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS UPPER TROUGH IS STILL AFFECTING THE REGION.

MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COLDEST AREA BEING THE ADKS IN THE L40S. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK.
WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH
REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS
GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH













000
FXUS61 KBTV 271950
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS STEADY OR DECREASING
ACROSS NRN NY...RANGING FROM THE M50S TO L60S. A POST FRONTAL
TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE THE THE SLV...AS UPSTREAM OBS ARE NOT SHOWING PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DECREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
ERODE ANY SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LOOKING DOWNSTREAM...MOST OF VT CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S...WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO N/NW CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO SRN VT. SOME INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE U60S- L70S IN CENTRAL/SRN VT...RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING BUT
AS NW FLOW TAKES HOLD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY NIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH POST FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS UPPER TROUGH IS STILL AFFECTING THE REGION.

MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COLDEST AREA BEING THE ADKS IN THE L40S. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK.
WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH
REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS
GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH














000
FXUS61 KBTV 271920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAINOUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER,
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR
T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM <20% DOWN
IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO
ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP
AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S, BUT WITH
CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S. THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF SUPPORTING
STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS POINT,
THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAINOUT, BUT WORTHY
OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD HAVE
THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND
WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR POPS, SHOWING
30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS
THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT 850MB, BUT HOW
MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN GET. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF MODELS, SO
HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK. WITH
THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY CONFIDENCE
IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH REGARD TO FOG
AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST. OTHERWISE, AFTER
13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND
VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS GUSTING 15-20KTS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAINOUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER,
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR
T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM <20% DOWN
IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO
ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP
AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S, BUT WITH
CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S. THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF SUPPORTING
STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS POINT,
THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAINOUT, BUT WORTHY
OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD HAVE
THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND
WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR POPS, SHOWING
30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS
THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT 850MB, BUT HOW
MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN GET. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF MODELS, SO
HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK. WITH
THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY CONFIDENCE
IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH REGARD TO FOG
AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST. OTHERWISE, AFTER
13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND
VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS GUSTING 15-20KTS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK. WITH
THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY CONFIDENCE
IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH REGARD TO FOG
AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST. OTHERWISE, AFTER
13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND
VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS GUSTING 15-20KTS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK. WITH
THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY CONFIDENCE
IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH REGARD TO FOG
AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST. OTHERWISE, AFTER
13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND
VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS GUSTING 15-20KTS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 271732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271451
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MORNING
WITH VERY LITTLE ON RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED W/NW
IN THE SLV...BUT REMAIN SW OVER THE ADKS AS FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE
SEWD OVER NRN NY. AS FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SEWD TODAY...EXPECT
THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ESP WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN SERN VT WITH MOST
SUNSHINE THERE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE
LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED
HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 30
PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY ONE...AS FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS VALLEYS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271451
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MORNING
WITH VERY LITTLE ON RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED W/NW
IN THE SLV...BUT REMAIN SW OVER THE ADKS AS FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE
SEWD OVER NRN NY. AS FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SEWD TODAY...EXPECT
THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ESP WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN SERN VT WITH MOST
SUNSHINE THERE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE
LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED
HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 30
PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY ONE...AS FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS VALLEYS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 271132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY INTO ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. A LINE OF SHOWERS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER...AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY
ONE...AS FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY
THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS VALLEYS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY INTO ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. A LINE OF SHOWERS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER...AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY
ONE...AS FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY
THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS VALLEYS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271052
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERING SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME. A LINE OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING.
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA
TODAY...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY ONE...AS
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB
TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY THIS EVENING.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE
MID 80S SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 271052
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERING SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME. A LINE OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING.
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA
TODAY...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY ONE...AS
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB
TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY THIS EVENING.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE
MID 80S SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI










000
FXUS61 KBTV 270855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERING SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME. A LINE OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING.
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA
TODAY...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY ONE...AS
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB
TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY THIS EVENING.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID 80S SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRING WITH IT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z-08Z AT MSS...AND PROGRESSING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD...08Z TO 15Z AT BTV...AND THEN 12Z-01Z AT RUT WHERE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER...BUT REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY BETWEEN
08Z AND 15Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 270855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERING SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME. A LINE OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING.
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA
TODAY...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY ONE...AS
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB
TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY THIS EVENING.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID 80S SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRING WITH IT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z-08Z AT MSS...AND PROGRESSING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD...08Z TO 15Z AT BTV...AND THEN 12Z-01Z AT RUT WHERE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER...BUT REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY BETWEEN
08Z AND 15Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 270805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR A
FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MANY AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THESE AREAS DURING THE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. DRY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BOUNDARY...WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOOKING
AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A BIT WARMER IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DECREASE...RESULTING
IN ONLY A SLGT/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN VT...WHERE HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS DECREASING FROM
14-16C IN THE MORNING TO 10-14C DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER NRN NY TO THE L/M80S IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COOLING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SLGT CHC FOR FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LVL
WAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA. NW FLOW SETS IN EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING A RETURN
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL. THURSDAY WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING IN THE M60S-L70S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 50S IN THE MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S-
50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRING WITH IT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z-08Z AT MSS...AND PROGRESSING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD...08Z TO 15Z AT BTV...AND THEN 12Z-01Z AT RUT WHERE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER...BUT REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY BETWEEN
08Z AND 15Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 270805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR A
FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MANY AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THESE AREAS DURING THE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. DRY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BOUNDARY...WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOOKING
AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A BIT WARMER IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DECREASE...RESULTING
IN ONLY A SLGT/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN VT...WHERE HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS DECREASING FROM
14-16C IN THE MORNING TO 10-14C DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER NRN NY TO THE L/M80S IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COOLING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SLGT CHC FOR FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LVL
WAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA. NW FLOW SETS IN EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING A RETURN
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL. THURSDAY WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING IN THE M60S-L70S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 50S IN THE MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S-
50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRING WITH IT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z-08Z AT MSS...AND PROGRESSING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD...08Z TO 15Z AT BTV...AND THEN 12Z-01Z AT RUT WHERE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER...BUT REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY BETWEEN
08Z AND 15Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI









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