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000
FXUS61 KBTV 202008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201908
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST FOR THE DAY IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN HAS JUST REACHED THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND RADAR SHOWS ECHOS STREAMING EASTWARD. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THIS WILL DRY UP AS IT DOES MOVE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL AS
FAIRLY DRY. STILL A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE THUS MODIFIED THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT
THIS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE POP FIELD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT BASED
UPON THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE
SREF OUTPUT.

BASICALLY WITH THE UPPER TROF BEGINNING TO DEEPEN, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE (AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION) WON`T BE MAKING AS MUCH
OF A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST, BUT RATHER MORE TO THE SOUTH. THUS
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK, TRENDING LOWER THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. SO HAVE
A 60-80% OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN TO 15-25% IN THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY (WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT HAS JUST REACHED 32F), SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN.

STILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT THINKING WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, IT WON`T DROP ALL THAT MUCH FROM
WHATEVER WE REACH FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

NEED TO LOOK MORE AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, THOUGH
FIRST SKIM THROUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE SEEMS
TO BE IN THE BALLPARK -- WHICH IS A WIDESPREAD 1"+ BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH EVEN MORE FALLING THURSDAY.

I`LL BE BACK IN A BIT WITH MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201908
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST FOR THE DAY IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN HAS JUST REACHED THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND RADAR SHOWS ECHOS STREAMING EASTWARD. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THIS WILL DRY UP AS IT DOES MOVE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL AS
FAIRLY DRY. STILL A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE THUS MODIFIED THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT
THIS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE POP FIELD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT BASED
UPON THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE
SREF OUTPUT.

BASICALLY WITH THE UPPER TROF BEGINNING TO DEEPEN, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE (AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION) WON`T BE MAKING AS MUCH
OF A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST, BUT RATHER MORE TO THE SOUTH. THUS
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK, TRENDING LOWER THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. SO HAVE
A 60-80% OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN TO 15-25% IN THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY (WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT HAS JUST REACHED 32F), SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN.

STILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT THINKING WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, IT WON`T DROP ALL THAT MUCH FROM
WHATEVER WE REACH FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

NEED TO LOOK MORE AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, THOUGH
FIRST SKIM THROUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE SEEMS
TO BE IN THE BALLPARK -- WHICH IS A WIDESPREAD 1"+ BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH EVEN MORE FALLING THURSDAY.

I`LL BE BACK IN A BIT WITH MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
202 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST FOR THE DAY IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN HAS JUST REACHED THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND RADAR SHOWS ECHOS STREAMING EASTWARD. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THIS WILL DRY UP AS IT DOES MOVE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL AS
FAIRLY DRY. STILL A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE THUS MODIFIED THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT
THIS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE POP FIELD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT BASED
UPON THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE
SREF OUTPUT.

BASICALLY WITH THE UPPER TROF BEGINNING TO DEEPEN, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE (AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION) WON`T BE MAKING AS MUCH
OF A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST, BUT RATHER MORE TO THE SOUTH. THUS
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK, TRENDING LOWER THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. SO HAVE
A 60-80% OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN TO 15-25% IN THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY (WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT HAS JUST REACHED 32F), SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN.

STILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT THINKING WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, IT WON`T DROP ALL THAT MUCH FROM
WHATEVER WE REACH FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

NEED TO LOOK MORE AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, THOUGH
FIRST SKIM THROUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE SEEMS
TO BE IN THE BALLPARK -- WHICH IS A WIDESPREAD 1"+ BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH EVEN MORE FALLING THURSDAY.

I`LL BE BACK IN A BIT WITH MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
     AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
202 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST FOR THE DAY IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN HAS JUST REACHED THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND RADAR SHOWS ECHOS STREAMING EASTWARD. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THIS WILL DRY UP AS IT DOES MOVE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL AS
FAIRLY DRY. STILL A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE THUS MODIFIED THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT
THIS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE POP FIELD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT BASED
UPON THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE
SREF OUTPUT.

BASICALLY WITH THE UPPER TROF BEGINNING TO DEEPEN, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE (AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION) WON`T BE MAKING AS MUCH
OF A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST, BUT RATHER MORE TO THE SOUTH. THUS
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK, TRENDING LOWER THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. SO HAVE
A 60-80% OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN TO 15-25% IN THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY (WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT HAS JUST REACHED 32F), SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN.

STILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT THINKING WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, IT WON`T DROP ALL THAT MUCH FROM
WHATEVER WE REACH FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

NEED TO LOOK MORE AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, THOUGH
FIRST SKIM THROUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE SEEMS
TO BE IN THE BALLPARK -- WHICH IS A WIDESPREAD 1"+ BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH EVEN MORE FALLING THURSDAY.

I`LL BE BACK IN A BIT WITH MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
     AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY MINOR/NOISE LEVEL/IN-THE-
WEEDS TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER
ONTARIO COULD SNEAK INTO THE ST LAWERENCE VALLEY ABOUT 18Z. THIS
IS 2-3 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAD, SO I SPED UP THE
TIMING JUST A SMIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING
FROM THEIR CHILLY START AND ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
LOOKS GOOD, SO I LEFT ALL THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON, SO ENJOY THE
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WE WILL SEE TODAY. WE WON`T SEE IT AGAIN FOR A
LOOOONG TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY MINOR/NOISE LEVEL/IN-THE-
WEEDS TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER
ONTARIO COULD SNEAK INTO THE ST LAWERENCE VALLEY ABOUT 18Z. THIS
IS 2-3 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAD, SO I SPED UP THE
TIMING JUST A SMIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING
FROM THEIR CHILLY START AND ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
LOOKS GOOD, SO I LEFT ALL THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON, SO ENJOY THE
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WE WILL SEE TODAY. WE WON`T SEE IT AGAIN FOR A
LOOOONG TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201434
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY MINOR/NOISE LEVEL/IN-THE-
WEEDS TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER
ONTARIO COULD SNEAK INTO THE ST LAWERENCE VALLEY ABOUT 18Z. THIS
IS 2-3 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAD, SO I SPED UP THE
TIMING JUST A SMIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING
FROM THEIR CHILLY START AND ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
LOOKS GOOD, SO I LEFT ALL THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON, SO ENJOY THE
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WE WILL SEE TODAY. WE WON`T SEE IT AGAIN FOR A
LOOOONG TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201434
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY MINOR/NOISE LEVEL/IN-THE-
WEEDS TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER
ONTARIO COULD SNEAK INTO THE ST LAWERENCE VALLEY ABOUT 18Z. THIS
IS 2-3 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAD, SO I SPED UP THE
TIMING JUST A SMIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING
FROM THEIR CHILLY START AND ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
LOOKS GOOD, SO I LEFT ALL THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON, SO ENJOY THE
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WE WILL SEE TODAY. WE WON`T SEE IT AGAIN FOR A
LOOOONG TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT MAY REACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT MAY REACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERODE
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND AREAS
THAT WERE RELATIVELY CLEAR...WILL NOT STAY CLEAR FOR LONG AS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 201128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERODE
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND AREAS
THAT WERE RELATIVELY CLEAR...WILL NOT STAY CLEAR FOR LONG AS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER











000
FXUS61 KBTV 200747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERODE
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND AREAS
THAT WERE RELATIVELY CLEAR...WILL NOT STAY CLEAR FOR LONG AS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BETWEEN 06-10Z THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS
MORNING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD
TUESDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR
VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 200747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERODE
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND AREAS
THAT WERE RELATIVELY CLEAR...WILL NOT STAY CLEAR FOR LONG AS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BETWEEN 06-10Z THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS
MORNING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD
TUESDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR
VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 200747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERODE
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND AREAS
THAT WERE RELATIVELY CLEAR...WILL NOT STAY CLEAR FOR LONG AS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BETWEEN 06-10Z THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS
MORNING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD
TUESDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR
VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 200747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERODE
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND AREAS
THAT WERE RELATIVELY CLEAR...WILL NOT STAY CLEAR FOR LONG AS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BETWEEN 06-10Z THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS
MORNING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD
TUESDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR
VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 200726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME PROTECTED HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING WET WEATHER FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS AFFECTING TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...BUT CLEARING TAKING PLACE ELSEWHERE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TWEAKED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL DUE TO THE CHANGING CLOUD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FCSTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BTWN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TRRN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BTWN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLW WL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CWA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CPV...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
CWA. WL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BTWN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BTWN 06-10Z THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS
MORNING WL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD
TUESDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR
VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 200718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME PROTECTED HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING WET WEATHER FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS AFFECTING TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...BUT CLEARING TAKING PLACE ELSEWHERE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TWEAKED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL DUE TO THE CHANGING CLOUD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FCSTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BTWN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TRRN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BTWN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLW WL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CWA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CPV...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WL BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
CWA. WL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTIONS A WIDESPREAD 1
TO 3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER WITH BUILDING
HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS. GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLW AND LOTS OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM
WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC
SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BTWN THE
VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE
4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON TUES. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS
BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.





&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BTWN 06-10Z THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS
MORNING WL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD
TUESDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR
VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 200718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME PROTECTED HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING WET WEATHER FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS AFFECTING TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...BUT CLEARING TAKING PLACE ELSEWHERE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TWEAKED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL DUE TO THE CHANGING CLOUD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FCSTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BTWN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TRRN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BTWN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLW WL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CWA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CPV...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WL BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
CWA. WL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTIONS A WIDESPREAD 1
TO 3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER WITH BUILDING
HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS. GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLW AND LOTS OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM
WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC
SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BTWN THE
VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE
4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON TUES. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS
BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.





&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BTWN 06-10Z THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS
MORNING WL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD
TUESDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR
VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 200517
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME PROTECTED HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING WET WEATHER FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS AFFECTING TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...BUT CLEARING TAKING PLACE ELSEWHERE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TWEAKED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL DUE TO THE CHANGING CLOUD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDITIONAL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BTWN 06-10Z THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS
MORNING WL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD
TUESDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR
VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER











000
FXUS61 KBTV 200517
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME PROTECTED HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING WET WEATHER FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS AFFECTING TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...BUT CLEARING TAKING PLACE ELSEWHERE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TWEAKED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL DUE TO THE CHANGING CLOUD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDITIONAL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BTWN 06-10Z THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS
MORNING WL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD
TUESDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR
VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 200442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1242 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME PROTECTED HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING WET WEATHER FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS AFFECTING TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...BUT CLEARING TAKING PLACE ELSEWHERE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TWEAKED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL DUE TO THE CHANGING CLOUD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDITIONAL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 200442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1242 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME PROTECTED HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING WET WEATHER FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS AFFECTING TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...BUT CLEARING TAKING PLACE ELSEWHERE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TWEAKED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL DUE TO THE CHANGING CLOUD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDITIONAL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 200205
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1005 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUD CLEARING PROGRESSION STILL
SLOWER THAN FCST BUT FASTER THAN AT 7 PM. CLDS FM NEXT SYSTEM
ALREADY ADVANCING. THE END RESULT...MIN T WILL BE A FEW DEGS OR
MORE MILDER THAN ORIGINAL FCST IN SPOTS AND HAVE MADE SUCH ADJUSTMENTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 7 PM...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 200205
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1005 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUD CLEARING PROGRESSION STILL
SLOWER THAN FCST BUT FASTER THAN AT 7 PM. CLDS FM NEXT SYSTEM
ALREADY ADVANCING. THE END RESULT...MIN T WILL BE A FEW DEGS OR
MORE MILDER THAN ORIGINAL FCST IN SPOTS AND HAVE MADE SUCH ADJUSTMENTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 7 PM...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 200002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
802 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 200002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
802 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 200002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
802 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 192306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON/SLW
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 192306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON/SLW
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 192306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON/SLW
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 192306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON/SLW
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 191923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD DESTABILIZES OUR AIRMASS...DESPITE
SURFACE TEMPS STAYING PUT. WITH THIS UPDATE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS BUT KMSS AND KBTV HAVE REPORTED -RA IN THE PAST HOUR.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD DESTABILIZES OUR AIRMASS...DESPITE
SURFACE TEMPS STAYING PUT. WITH THIS UPDATE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS BUT KMSS AND KBTV HAVE REPORTED -RA IN THE PAST HOUR.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191722
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD DESTABILIZES OUR AIRMASS...DESPITE
SURFACE TEMPS STAYING PUT. WITH THIS UPDATE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS BUT KMSS AND KBTV HAVE REPORTED -RA IN THE PAST HOUR.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD DESTABILIZES OUR AIRMASS...DESPITE
SURFACE TEMPS STAYING PUT. WITH THIS UPDATE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS BUT KMSS AND KBTV HAVE REPORTED -RA IN THE PAST HOUR.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE VALLEYS TAF SITES AND MVFR
AT MPV WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT SLK THE MORNING. CRNT
RADAR SHOWS MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WL CONT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500
FEET AT SLK/MPV...INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE AT PBG/BTV/MSS/RUT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL SITES BECOME IFR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS TODAY...TO
BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU
FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 191430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE LOWERED TODAYS MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR TODAY, EVENED OUT HOURLY TEMPS, AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME BREAKS, BUT WILL HAVE MORE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING MAKES ITS
PRESENCE FELT. WITH GUSTY NW WIND AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL NOT
GO ANYWHERE TODAY AND CURRENT TEMPS ALSO NEAR MAX TEMPS. POPS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH KSLK REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 34 DEGREES. POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOSS OF MOISTURE.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE VALLEYS TAF SITES AND MVFR
AT MPV WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT SLK THE MORNING. CRNT
RADAR SHOWS MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WL CONT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500
FEET AT SLK/MPV...INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE AT PBG/BTV/MSS/RUT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL SITES BECOME IFR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS TODAY...TO
BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU
FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 191430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE LOWERED TODAYS MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR TODAY, EVENED OUT HOURLY TEMPS, AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME BREAKS, BUT WILL HAVE MORE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING MAKES ITS
PRESENCE FELT. WITH GUSTY NW WIND AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL NOT
GO ANYWHERE TODAY AND CURRENT TEMPS ALSO NEAR MAX TEMPS. POPS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH KSLK REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 34 DEGREES. POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOSS OF MOISTURE.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE VALLEYS TAF SITES AND MVFR
AT MPV WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT SLK THE MORNING. CRNT
RADAR SHOWS MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WL CONT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500
FEET AT SLK/MPV...INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE AT PBG/BTV/MSS/RUT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL SITES BECOME IFR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS TODAY...TO
BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU
FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE VALLEYS TAF SITES AND MVFR
AT MPV WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT SLK THE MORNING. CRNT
RADAR SHOWS MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WL CONT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500
FEET AT SLK/MPV...INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE AT PBG/BTV/MSS/RUT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL SITES BECOME IFR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS TODAY...TO
BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU
FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 191143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE VALLEYS TAF SITES AND MVFR
AT MPV WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT SLK THE MORNING. CRNT
RADAR SHOWS MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WL CONT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500
FEET AT SLK/MPV...INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE AT PBG/BTV/MSS/RUT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL SITES BECOME IFR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS TODAY...TO
BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU
FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER











000
FXUS61 KBTV 191134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 191134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 190746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE VERTICAL
DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE LIMITED
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 190746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE VERTICAL
DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE LIMITED
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 190722
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 190513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCATTERED NORTHERN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 190513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCATTERED NORTHERN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WFO BTV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 190352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1152 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCATTERED NORTHERN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 190352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1152 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCATTERED NORTHERN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...WFO BTV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 190352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1152 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCATTERED NORTHERN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...WFO BTV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 190352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1152 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCATTERED NORTHERN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 190223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT,
AND COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING
VORTICITY CENTER NORTH OF VT/QUEBEC BORDER MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING LINGERING BEHIND. MORE MOISTURE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR LOOP ENTERING NORTHERN NY. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE SCARCE
OUT THERE NOW...BAND OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. BLENDED IN SOME BTV4 HI RES MODEL TO LOWER POPS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPS...NO CHANGES IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN
THE 30S AND MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK TUP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 190137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
937 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT,
AND COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING
VORTICITY CENTER NORTH OF VT/QUEBEC BORDER MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING LINGERING BEHIND. MORE MOISTURE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR LOOP ENTERING NORTHERN NY. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE SCARCE
OUT THERE NOW...BAND OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. BLENDED IN SOME BTV4 HI RES MODEL TO LOWER POPS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPS...NO CHANGES IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN
THE 30S AND MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK TUP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 190137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
937 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT,
AND COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING
VORTICITY CENTER NORTH OF VT/QUEBEC BORDER MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING LINGERING BEHIND. MORE MOISTURE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR LOOP ENTERING NORTHERN NY. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE SCARCE
OUT THERE NOW...BAND OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. BLENDED IN SOME BTV4 HI RES MODEL TO LOWER POPS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPS...NO CHANGES IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN
THE 30S AND MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK TUP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 182346
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT,
AND COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST TRACKING ALONG NICELY AND
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPS. RADAR SHOWING BANDS
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AREA. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE NOT
EXTENSIVE...CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED WITH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND TERRAIN FORCING. STILL ON TRACK FOR LOWS IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500MB VORT THAT WE`VE BEEN TRACKING TODAY IS
JUST ABOUT TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN VERMONT INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...TAKING WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAINFALL WITH IT. SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH WINDS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES THERE FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S. RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT TERRAIN ENHANCED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND ABOVE
ROUGHLY 1000 FT SNOW TO MIX IN WHEN TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A POCKET OF HIGHER RH
COINCIDING WITH IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER AROUND 06Z AS SURFACE
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. TOWARD SUNUP MID LEVEL DRYING
OCCURS...AND PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND MATCH
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK TUP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 182346
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT,
AND COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST TRACKING ALONG NICELY AND
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPS. RADAR SHOWING BANDS
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AREA. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE NOT
EXTENSIVE...CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED WITH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND TERRAIN FORCING. STILL ON TRACK FOR LOWS IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500MB VORT THAT WE`VE BEEN TRACKING TODAY IS
JUST ABOUT TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN VERMONT INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...TAKING WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAINFALL WITH IT. SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH WINDS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES THERE FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S. RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT TERRAIN ENHANCED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND ABOVE
ROUGHLY 1000 FT SNOW TO MIX IN WHEN TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A POCKET OF HIGHER RH
COINCIDING WITH IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER AROUND 06Z AS SURFACE
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. TOWARD SUNUP MID LEVEL DRYING
OCCURS...AND PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND MATCH
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK TUP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 182328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT,
AND COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST TRACKING ALONG NICELY AND
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPS. RADAR SHOWING BANDS
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AREA. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE NOT
EXTENSIVE...CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED WITH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND TERRAIN FORCING. STILL ON TRACK FOR LOWS IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500MB VORT THAT WE`VE BEEN TRACKING TODAY IS
JUST ABOUT TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN VERMONT INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...TAKING WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAINFALL WITH IT. SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH WINDS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES THERE FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S. RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT TERRAIN ENHANCED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND ABOVE
ROUGHLY 1000 FT SNOW TO MIX IN WHEN TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A POCKET OF HIGHER RH
COINCIDING WITH IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER AROUND 06Z AS SURFACE
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. TOWARD SUNUP MID LEVEL DRYING
OCCURS...AND PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND MATCH
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK TUP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
AREA. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF AT KSLK HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE
ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z...THEN
STEADILY LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER AS MOIST
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT
KSLK IN -SHSN AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS
REMAIN GENERALLY PCPN-FREE AFTER 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS...TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM
22-00Z ONWARD AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...LINGERING MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO TREND VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 181952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT,
AND COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...500MB VORT THAT WE`VE BEEN TRACKING
TODAY IS JUST ABOUT TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN VERMONT INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...TAKING WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAINFALL WITH IT. SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH WINDS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES THERE FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S. RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT TERRAIN ENHANCED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND ABOVE
ROUGHLY 1000 FT SNOW TO MIX IN WHEN TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A POCKET OF HIGHER RH
COINCIDING WITH IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER AROUND 06Z AS SURFACE
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. TOWARD SUNUP MID LEVEL DRYING
OCCURS...AND PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND MATCH
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK TUP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
AREA. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF AT KSLK HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE
ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z...THEN
STEADILY LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER AS MOIST
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT
KSLK IN -SHSN AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS
REMAIN GENERALLY PCPN-FREE AFTER 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS...TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM
22-00Z ONWARD AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...LINGERING MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO TREND VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT,
AND COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...500MB VORT THAT WE`VE BEEN TRACKING
TODAY IS JUST ABOUT TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN VERMONT INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...TAKING WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAINFALL WITH IT. SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH WINDS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES THERE FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S. RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT TERRAIN ENHANCED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND ABOVE
ROUGHLY 1000 FT SNOW TO MIX IN WHEN TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A POCKET OF HIGHER RH
COINCIDING WITH IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER AROUND 06Z AS SURFACE
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. TOWARD SUNUP MID LEVEL DRYING
OCCURS...AND PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND MATCH
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK TUP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
AREA. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF AT KSLK HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE
ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z...THEN
STEADILY LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER AS MOIST
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT
KSLK IN -SHSN AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS
REMAIN GENERALLY PCPN-FREE AFTER 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS...TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM
22-00Z ONWARD AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...LINGERING MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO TREND VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT,
AND COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...500MB VORT THAT WE`VE BEEN TRACKING
TODAY IS JUST ABOUT TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN VERMONT INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...TAKING WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAINFALL WITH IT. SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH WINDS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES THERE FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S. RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT TERRAIN ENHANCED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND ABOVE
ROUGHLY 1000 FT SNOW TO MIX IN WHEN TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A POCKET OF HIGHER RH
COINCIDING WITH IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER AROUND 06Z AS SURFACE
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. TOWARD SUNUP MID LEVEL DRYING
OCCURS...AND PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND MATCH
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK TUP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
AREA. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF AT KSLK HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE
ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z...THEN
STEADILY LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER AS MOIST
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT
KSLK IN -SHSN AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS
REMAIN GENERALLY PCPN-FREE AFTER 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS...TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM
22-00Z ONWARD AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...LINGERING MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO TREND VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 181952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT,
AND COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...500MB VORT THAT WE`VE BEEN TRACKING
TODAY IS JUST ABOUT TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN VERMONT INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...TAKING WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAINFALL WITH IT. SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH WINDS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES THERE FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S. RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT TERRAIN ENHANCED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND ABOVE
ROUGHLY 1000 FT SNOW TO MIX IN WHEN TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A POCKET OF HIGHER RH
COINCIDING WITH IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER AROUND 06Z AS SURFACE
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. TOWARD SUNUP MID LEVEL DRYING
OCCURS...AND PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND MATCH
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK TUP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
AREA. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF AT KSLK HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE
ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z...THEN
STEADILY LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER AS MOIST
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT
KSLK IN -SHSN AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS
REMAIN GENERALLY PCPN-FREE AFTER 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS...TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM
22-00Z ONWARD AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...LINGERING MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO TREND VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 181849
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
249 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED MODERATE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT CENTER WAS OVER CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT...LIFTING NORTHEAST. A FEW MORE
HOURS OF STEADY RAINFALL...THEN WILL TAPER OFF TO MORE SHOWERY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WEST AT KOGS AND ABOUT TO
SHIFT AT KMSS. FRONT WILL TRACK ON EAST THROUGH FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARRIVE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME
MORE SHOWERY AND TERRAIN INFLUENCED.

TEMPS...HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN SEEN...AND COOLING HAS BEGUN IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY GO DOWNWARD WITH FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
AREA. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF AT KSLK HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE
ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z...THEN
STEADILY LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER AS MOIST
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT
KSLK IN -SHSN AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS
REMAIN GENERALLY PCPN-FREE AFTER 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS...TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM
22-00Z ONWARD AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...LINGERING MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO TREND VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181849
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
249 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED MODERATE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT CENTER WAS OVER CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT...LIFTING NORTHEAST. A FEW MORE
HOURS OF STEADY RAINFALL...THEN WILL TAPER OFF TO MORE SHOWERY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WEST AT KOGS AND ABOUT TO
SHIFT AT KMSS. FRONT WILL TRACK ON EAST THROUGH FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARRIVE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME
MORE SHOWERY AND TERRAIN INFLUENCED.

TEMPS...HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN SEEN...AND COOLING HAS BEGUN IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY GO DOWNWARD WITH FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
AREA. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF AT KSLK HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE
ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z...THEN
STEADILY LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER AS MOIST
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT
KSLK IN -SHSN AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS
REMAIN GENERALLY PCPN-FREE AFTER 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS...TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM
22-00Z ONWARD AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...LINGERING MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO TREND VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 181730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED MODERATE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT CENTER WAS OVER CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT...LIFTING NORTHEAST. A FEW MORE
HOURS OF STEADY RAINFALL...THEN WILL TAPER OFF TO MORE SHOWERY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WEST AT KOGS AND ABOUT TO
SHIFT AT KMSS. FRONT WILL TRACK ON EAST THROUGH FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARRIVE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME
MORE SHOWERY AND TERRAIN INFLUENCED.

TEMPS...HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN SEEN...AND COOLING HAS BEGUN IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY GO DOWNWARD WITH FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
AREA. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF AT KSLK HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE
ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z...THEN
STEADILY LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER AS MOIST
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT
KSLK IN -SHSN AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS
REMAIN GENERALLY PCPN-FREE AFTER 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS...TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM
22-00Z ONWARD AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...LINGERING MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO TREND VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 181730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED MODERATE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT CENTER WAS OVER CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT...LIFTING NORTHEAST. A FEW MORE
HOURS OF STEADY RAINFALL...THEN WILL TAPER OFF TO MORE SHOWERY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WEST AT KOGS AND ABOUT TO
SHIFT AT KMSS. FRONT WILL TRACK ON EAST THROUGH FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARRIVE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME
MORE SHOWERY AND TERRAIN INFLUENCED.

TEMPS...HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN SEEN...AND COOLING HAS BEGUN IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY GO DOWNWARD WITH FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
AREA. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF AT KSLK HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE
ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z...THEN
STEADILY LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER AS MOIST
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT
KSLK IN -SHSN AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS
REMAIN GENERALLY PCPN-FREE AFTER 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS...TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM
22-00Z ONWARD AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...LINGERING MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO TREND VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SATURDAY...500 MB VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER
TROUGH...GENERATING LIFT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS FORECAST.
VORT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND VERMONT. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE MAIN RAIN AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED POPS
TO LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY IN ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND LEFT CATEGORICAL ELSEWHERE. ALSO MIXED IN SOME HI
RESOLUTION MODEL POPS TO SHOW ENHANCEMENT OVER TERRAIN. SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...INTO
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BEFORE NOON...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY NOON-1PM...AND
CT RIVER VALLEY 3-5PM. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED...AND HI
RES MODEL POPS SHOWING ENHANCEMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. KEPT SLGT
CHC THUNDER WITH THE UPPPER VORT AS LAPS RATES UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
A FEW CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST VT INTO NH THIS MORNING HAD SOME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE...BLENDED IN LATEST OBS BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
AREA. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF AT KSLK HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE
ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z...THEN
STEADILY LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER AS MOIST
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT
KSLK IN -SHSN AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS
REMAIN GENERALLY PCPN-FREE AFTER 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS...TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM
22-00Z ONWARD AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...LINGERING MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO TREND VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 181711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SATURDAY...500 MB VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER
TROUGH...GENERATING LIFT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS FORECAST.
VORT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND VERMONT. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE MAIN RAIN AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED POPS
TO LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY IN ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND LEFT CATEGORICAL ELSEWHERE. ALSO MIXED IN SOME HI
RESOLUTION MODEL POPS TO SHOW ENHANCEMENT OVER TERRAIN. SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...INTO
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BEFORE NOON...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY NOON-1PM...AND
CT RIVER VALLEY 3-5PM. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED...AND HI
RES MODEL POPS SHOWING ENHANCEMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. KEPT SLGT
CHC THUNDER WITH THE UPPPER VORT AS LAPS RATES UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
A FEW CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST VT INTO NH THIS MORNING HAD SOME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE...BLENDED IN LATEST OBS BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
AREA. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF AT KSLK HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE
ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z...THEN
STEADILY LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER AS MOIST
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT
KSLK IN -SHSN AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS
REMAIN GENERALLY PCPN-FREE AFTER 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS...TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM
22-00Z ONWARD AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...LINGERING MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO TREND VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181434
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SATURDAY...500 MB VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER
TROUGH...GENERATING LIFT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS FORECAST.
VORT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND VERMONT. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE MAIN RAIN AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED POPS
TO LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY IN ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND LEFT CATEGORICAL ELSEWHERE. ALSO MIXED IN SOME HI
RESOLUTION MODEL POPS TO SHOW ENHANCEMENT OVER TERRAIN. SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...INTO
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BEFORE NOON...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY NOON-1PM...AND
CT RIVER VALLEY 3-5PM. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED...AND HI
RES MODEL POPS SHOWING ENHANCEMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. KEPT SLGT
CHC THUNDER WITH THE UPPPER VORT AS LAPS RATES UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
A FEW CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST VT INTO NH THIS MORNING HAD SOME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE...BLENDED IN LATEST OBS BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CURRENTLY PRIMARILY VFR, HOWEVER SHOWERS OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
SINCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, THUS
TAFS GENERALLY HAVE PREVAILING 6SM -SHRA RATHER THAN TRYING TO
BLANKET THEM WITH MULTIPLE TEMPO GROUPS. DURING THE 18Z- 01Z
TIMEFRAME, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS IT
DOES SO, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO A WEST/NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOWERING OF CLOUD CEILINGS, SUCH THAT
MVFR WILL BE QUITE COMMON -- WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR SLK. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND INSTEAD BECOME MORE FOCUSSED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND AFTER 06Z IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF THE WHITE STUFF IN THE SLK TAF.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH










000
FXUS61 KBTV 181434
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SATURDAY...500 MB VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER
TROUGH...GENERATING LIFT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS FORECAST.
VORT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND VERMONT. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE MAIN RAIN AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED POPS
TO LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY IN ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND LEFT CATEGORICAL ELSEWHERE. ALSO MIXED IN SOME HI
RESOLUTION MODEL POPS TO SHOW ENHANCEMENT OVER TERRAIN. SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...INTO
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BEFORE NOON...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY NOON-1PM...AND
CT RIVER VALLEY 3-5PM. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED...AND HI
RES MODEL POPS SHOWING ENHANCEMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. KEPT SLGT
CHC THUNDER WITH THE UPPPER VORT AS LAPS RATES UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
A FEW CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST VT INTO NH THIS MORNING HAD SOME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE...BLENDED IN LATEST OBS BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CURRENTLY PRIMARILY VFR, HOWEVER SHOWERS OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
SINCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, THUS
TAFS GENERALLY HAVE PREVAILING 6SM -SHRA RATHER THAN TRYING TO
BLANKET THEM WITH MULTIPLE TEMPO GROUPS. DURING THE 18Z- 01Z
TIMEFRAME, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS IT
DOES SO, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO A WEST/NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOWERING OF CLOUD CEILINGS, SUCH THAT
MVFR WILL BE QUITE COMMON -- WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR SLK. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND INSTEAD BECOME MORE FOCUSSED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND AFTER 06Z IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF THE WHITE STUFF IN THE SLK TAF.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 181434
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SATURDAY...500 MB VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER
TROUGH...GENERATING LIFT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS FORECAST.
VORT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND VERMONT. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE MAIN RAIN AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED POPS
TO LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY IN ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND LEFT CATEGORICAL ELSEWHERE. ALSO MIXED IN SOME HI
RESOLUTION MODEL POPS TO SHOW ENHANCEMENT OVER TERRAIN. SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...INTO
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BEFORE NOON...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY NOON-1PM...AND
CT RIVER VALLEY 3-5PM. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED...AND HI
RES MODEL POPS SHOWING ENHANCEMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. KEPT SLGT
CHC THUNDER WITH THE UPPPER VORT AS LAPS RATES UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
A FEW CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST VT INTO NH THIS MORNING HAD SOME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE...BLENDED IN LATEST OBS BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CURRENTLY PRIMARILY VFR, HOWEVER SHOWERS OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
SINCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, THUS
TAFS GENERALLY HAVE PREVAILING 6SM -SHRA RATHER THAN TRYING TO
BLANKET THEM WITH MULTIPLE TEMPO GROUPS. DURING THE 18Z- 01Z
TIMEFRAME, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS IT
DOES SO, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO A WEST/NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOWERING OF CLOUD CEILINGS, SUCH THAT
MVFR WILL BE QUITE COMMON -- WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR SLK. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND INSTEAD BECOME MORE FOCUSSED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND AFTER 06Z IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF THE WHITE STUFF IN THE SLK TAF.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH










000
FXUS61 KBTV 181434
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SATURDAY...500 MB VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER
TROUGH...GENERATING LIFT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS FORECAST.
VORT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND VERMONT. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE MAIN RAIN AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED POPS
TO LOWER POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY IN ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND LEFT CATEGORICAL ELSEWHERE. ALSO MIXED IN SOME HI
RESOLUTION MODEL POPS TO SHOW ENHANCEMENT OVER TERRAIN. SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...INTO
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BEFORE NOON...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY NOON-1PM...AND
CT RIVER VALLEY 3-5PM. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED...AND HI
RES MODEL POPS SHOWING ENHANCEMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. KEPT SLGT
CHC THUNDER WITH THE UPPPER VORT AS LAPS RATES UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
A FEW CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST VT INTO NH THIS MORNING HAD SOME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE...BLENDED IN LATEST OBS BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CURRENTLY PRIMARILY VFR, HOWEVER SHOWERS OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
SINCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, THUS
TAFS GENERALLY HAVE PREVAILING 6SM -SHRA RATHER THAN TRYING TO
BLANKET THEM WITH MULTIPLE TEMPO GROUPS. DURING THE 18Z- 01Z
TIMEFRAME, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS IT
DOES SO, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO A WEST/NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOWERING OF CLOUD CEILINGS, SUCH THAT
MVFR WILL BE QUITE COMMON -- WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR SLK. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND INSTEAD BECOME MORE FOCUSSED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND AFTER 06Z IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF THE WHITE STUFF IN THE SLK TAF.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 181145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
JUST NEED TO TWEAK CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING AS A RESULT AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD
FROM MID- MORNING ON. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING
WITH THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE COOLING ALOFT THAT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG WITH SOME VERY SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT FALLING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CURRENTLY PRIMARILY VFR, HOWEVER SHOWERS OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
SINCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, THUS
TAFS GENERALLY HAVE PREVAILING 6SM -SHRA RATHER THAN TRYING TO
BLANKET THEM WITH MULTIPLE TEMPO GROUPS. DURING THE 18Z- 01Z
TIMEFRAME, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS IT
DOES SO, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO A WEST/NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOWERING OF CLOUD CEILINGS, SUCH THAT
MVFR WILL BE QUITE COMMON -- WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR SLK. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND INSTEAD BECOME MORE FOCUSSED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND AFTER 06Z IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF THE WHITE STUFF IN THE SLK TAF.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 181145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
JUST NEED TO TWEAK CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING AS A RESULT AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD
FROM MID- MORNING ON. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING
WITH THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE COOLING ALOFT THAT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG WITH SOME VERY SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT FALLING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CURRENTLY PRIMARILY VFR, HOWEVER SHOWERS OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
SINCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, THUS
TAFS GENERALLY HAVE PREVAILING 6SM -SHRA RATHER THAN TRYING TO
BLANKET THEM WITH MULTIPLE TEMPO GROUPS. DURING THE 18Z- 01Z
TIMEFRAME, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS IT
DOES SO, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO A WEST/NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOWERING OF CLOUD CEILINGS, SUCH THAT
MVFR WILL BE QUITE COMMON -- WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR SLK. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND INSTEAD BECOME MORE FOCUSSED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND AFTER 06Z IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF THE WHITE STUFF IN THE SLK TAF.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181106
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
JUST NEED TO TWEAK CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING AS A RESULT AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD
FROM MID- MORNING ON. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING
WITH THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE COOLING ALOFT THAT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG WITH SOME VERY SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT FALLING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERAL DETERIORATING TREND. VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OBSERVED LATE TONIGHT WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT
BTV/MPV/RUT/MSS AND IFR AT SLK. PBG LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH
CEILINGS BY EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. CEILINGS LOWER
FURTHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR AT SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH SOME
GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS THEN TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181106
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
JUST NEED TO TWEAK CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING AS A RESULT AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD
FROM MID- MORNING ON. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING
WITH THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE COOLING ALOFT THAT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG WITH SOME VERY SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT FALLING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERAL DETERIORATING TREND. VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OBSERVED LATE TONIGHT WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT
BTV/MPV/RUT/MSS AND IFR AT SLK. PBG LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH
CEILINGS BY EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. CEILINGS LOWER
FURTHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR AT SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH SOME
GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS THEN TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 181106
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
JUST NEED TO TWEAK CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING AS A RESULT AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD
FROM MID- MORNING ON. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING
WITH THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE COOLING ALOFT THAT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG WITH SOME VERY SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT FALLING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERAL DETERIORATING TREND. VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OBSERVED LATE TONIGHT WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT
BTV/MPV/RUT/MSS AND IFR AT SLK. PBG LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH
CEILINGS BY EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. CEILINGS LOWER
FURTHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR AT SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH SOME
GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS THEN TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 181106
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
JUST NEED TO TWEAK CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING AS A RESULT AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD
FROM MID- MORNING ON. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING
WITH THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE COOLING ALOFT THAT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG WITH SOME VERY SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT FALLING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERAL DETERIORATING TREND. VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OBSERVED LATE TONIGHT WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT
BTV/MPV/RUT/MSS AND IFR AT SLK. PBG LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH
CEILINGS BY EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. CEILINGS LOWER
FURTHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR AT SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH SOME
GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS THEN TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING AS A RESULT AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD FROM MID-MORNING ON. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPENING WITH THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE
COOLING ALOFT THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
AND THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG WITH SOME
VERY SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...BUT FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERAL DETERIORATING TREND. VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OBSERVED LATE TONIGHT WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT
BTV/MPV/RUT/MSS AND IFR AT SLK. PBG LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH
CEILINGS BY EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. CEILINGS LOWER
FURTHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR AT SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH SOME
GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS THEN TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING AS A RESULT AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD FROM MID-MORNING ON. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPENING WITH THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE
COOLING ALOFT THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
AND THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG WITH SOME
VERY SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...BUT FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERAL DETERIORATING TREND. VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OBSERVED LATE TONIGHT WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT
BTV/MPV/RUT/MSS AND IFR AT SLK. PBG LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH
CEILINGS BY EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. CEILINGS LOWER
FURTHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR AT SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH SOME
GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS THEN TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WE GO FROM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ABOUT THIS SHARP TEMPERATURE CHANGE. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT...THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING AS A RESULT AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD FROM MID-MORNING ON. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPENING WITH THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE
COOLING ALOFT THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
AND THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG WITH SOME
VERY SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...BUT FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW...AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL UPPER FLOW...SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FEET
AND THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND THUS LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERAL DETERIORATING TREND. VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OBSERVED LATE TONIGHT WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT
BTV/MPV/RUT/MSS AND IFR AT SLK. PBG LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH
CEILINGS BY EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. CEILINGS LOWER
FURTHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR AT SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH SOME
GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS THEN TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT SATURDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS GREATLY
DECREASED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERAL DETERIORATING TREND. VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OBSERVED LATE TONIGHT WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT
BTV/MPV/RUT/MSS AND IFR AT SLK. PBG LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH
CEILINGS BY EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. CEILINGS LOWER
FURTHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR AT SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH SOME
GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS THEN TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 180721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT SATURDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS GREATLY
DECREASED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...A CHILLY AND RAINY PERIOD WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
GO FURTHER DOWNHILL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL USHER IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO DEVELOPING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL MORE DECIDEDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THUS SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...BUT FINALLY ENDING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN.

THIS CUTOFF LOW/EASTERLY FLOW SCENARIO GENERALLY FAVORS MAINE...THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN MORE-SO THAN POINTS NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS...AND LEAST
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN...CLOUDS...SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTED
NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SAME REASONING. PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN
STRONG FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG WARMING AT 850/700MB. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN TO FINISH ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S
AREA-WIDE. THURSDAY SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT...BACK INTO THE LOW
50S...AND FRIDAY FURTHER WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE...LOW/MID
50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...AND BACK INTO THE
30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERAL DETERIORATING TREND. VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OBSERVED LATE TONIGHT WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT
BTV/MPV/RUT/MSS AND IFR AT SLK. PBG LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH
CEILINGS BY EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. CEILINGS LOWER
FURTHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR AT SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH SOME
GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS THEN TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI










000
FXUS61 KBTV 180538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT SATURDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS GREATLY
DECREASED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUITE THE INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND MOIST E/SE MARITIME FLOW
BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. IN THE
INTERIM...WILL ADVERTISE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT THIS POINT.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEEP UPPER LOW/H5 TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A DEEP AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST MARITIME FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. INDEED...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
QPF PROGS SUGGEST QUITE THE SOAKER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME SO DETAILS WILL BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW...MEAN 850 MB 0C LINE
LIFTS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO MOST
OF THIS SYSTEM PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN. DID
OPT TO NARROW T RANGE SOMEWHAT OVER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERAL DETERIORATING TREND. VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OBSERVED LATE TONIGHT WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT
BTV/MPV/RUT/MSS AND IFR AT SLK. PBG LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH
CEILINGS BY EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. CEILINGS LOWER
FURTHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR AT SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH SOME
GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS THEN TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT SATURDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS GREATLY
DECREASED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUITE THE INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND MOIST E/SE MARITIME FLOW
BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. IN THE
INTERIM...WILL ADVERTISE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT THIS POINT.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEEP UPPER LOW/H5 TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A DEEP AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST MARITIME FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. INDEED...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
QPF PROGS SUGGEST QUITE THE SOAKER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME SO DETAILS WILL BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW...MEAN 850 MB 0C LINE
LIFTS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO MOST
OF THIS SYSTEM PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN. DID
OPT TO NARROW T RANGE SOMEWHAT OVER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERAL DETERIORATING TREND. VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OBSERVED LATE TONIGHT WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT
BTV/MPV/RUT/MSS AND IFR AT SLK. PBG LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH
CEILINGS BY EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. CEILINGS LOWER
FURTHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR AT SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH SOME
GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS THEN TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 180526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT SATURDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS GREATLY
DECREASED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUITE THE INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND MOIST E/SE MARITIME FLOW
BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. IN THE
INTERIM...WILL ADVERTISE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT THIS POINT.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEEP UPPER LOW/H5 TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A DEEP AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST MARITIME FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. INDEED...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
QPF PROGS SUGGEST QUITE THE SOAKER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME SO DETAILS WILL BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW...MEAN 850 MB 0C LINE
LIFTS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO MOST
OF THIS SYSTEM PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN. DID
OPT TO NARROW T RANGE SOMEWHAT OVER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING WILL
TREND DOWNWARD INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT RUT/MSS AND IFR AT
SLK. BTV/PBG/MPV LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH CEILINGS BY
EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDS FROM 12Z WED ONWARD
AS CLOSED UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN AND LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT SATURDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS GREATLY
DECREASED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUITE THE INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND MOIST E/SE MARITIME FLOW
BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. IN THE
INTERIM...WILL ADVERTISE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT THIS POINT.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEEP UPPER LOW/H5 TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A DEEP AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST MARITIME FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. INDEED...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
QPF PROGS SUGGEST QUITE THE SOAKER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME SO DETAILS WILL BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW...MEAN 850 MB 0C LINE
LIFTS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO MOST
OF THIS SYSTEM PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN. DID
OPT TO NARROW T RANGE SOMEWHAT OVER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING WILL
TREND DOWNWARD INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT RUT/MSS AND IFR AT
SLK. BTV/PBG/MPV LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH CEILINGS BY
EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDS FROM 12Z WED ONWARD
AS CLOSED UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN AND LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 180212
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1012 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY
ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS THIS EVENING AND ADJUST TEMPS/WINDS
BASED ON CRNT OBS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS QUICKLY
OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY ATTM. THESE SHOWERS WL
CONT TO RACE NE AND IMPACT THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS THRU
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFT 06Z ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT 5H VORT AND MOVE
INTO THE CPV BY SAT MORNING. ALL IS COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST.
TEMPS HAVE BUMPED UP SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT AS RAIN ARRIVES...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY
ZNS...EXPECT LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE L/M 50S. QPF OVERALL NIGHT
WL BE 0.10 OR LESS ACRS NORTHERN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUITE THE INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND MOIST E/SE MARITIME FLOW
BRING COPIOUS AMTS OF RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. IN THE
INTERIM...WILL ADVERTISE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT THIS POINT.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEEP UPPER LOW/H5 TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A DEEP AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST MARITIME FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. INDEED...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
QPF PROGS SUGGEST QUITE THE SOAKER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME SO DETAILS WILL BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW...MEAN 850 MB 0C LINE
LIFTS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO MOST
OF THIS SYSTEM PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN. DID
OPT TO NARROW T RANGE SOMEWHAT OVER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING WILL
TREND DOWNWARD INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT RUT/MSS AND IFR AT
SLK. BTV/PBG/MPV LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH CEILINGS BY
EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDS FROM 12Z WED ONWARD
AS CLOSED UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN AND LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 172337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED MINS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...AS SLK/MSS ARE ALREADY VERY CLOSE TO THEIR
EXPECTED LOWS. HAVE MENTIONED L50S SLV TO NEAR 50F AT
SLK...THINKING CLOUDS WL LIMIT TEMP FALL.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT DIGGING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WL CURVE OUT A DEEPENING TROF ACRS THE NE
CONUS ON SATURDAY. THIS ENERGY...COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500MB RH
FIELDS AND STRONG UVVS WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE CPV BY
15Z SATURDAY. THOUGHT ABOUT PLACING ISOLATED THUNDER IN
GRIDS...BUT FEEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS RACING AHEAD OF ACTUAL S/W ENERGY
MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...WITH LATEST 18Z NAM SHOWING BEST
PARAMETERS ACRS NORTHERN VT/NEK. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE SYSTEM
WL BE VERY DYNAMIC WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS WL
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 0.10 TO 0.40 ON SATURDAY.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
ONLY REALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
MORE ON THAT BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUITE THE INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND MOIST E/SE MARITIME FLOW
BRING COPIOUS AMTS OF RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. IN THE
INTERIM...WILL ADVERTISE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT THIS POINT.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEEP UPPER LOW/H5 TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A DEEP AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST MARITIME FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. INDEED...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
QPF PROGS SUGGEST QUITE THE SOAKER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME SO DETAILS WILL BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW...MEAN 850 MB 0C LINE
LIFTS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO MOST
OF THIS SYSTEM PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN. DID
OPT TO NARROW T RANGE SOMEWHAT OVER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING WILL
TREND DOWNWARD INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT RUT/MSS AND IFR AT
SLK. BTV/PBG/MPV LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH CEILINGS BY
EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDS FROM 12Z WED ONWARD
AS CLOSED UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN AND LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 172337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED MINS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...AS SLK/MSS ARE ALREADY VERY CLOSE TO THEIR
EXPECTED LOWS. HAVE MENTIONED L50S SLV TO NEAR 50F AT
SLK...THINKING CLOUDS WL LIMIT TEMP FALL.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT DIGGING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WL CURVE OUT A DEEPENING TROF ACRS THE NE
CONUS ON SATURDAY. THIS ENERGY...COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500MB RH
FIELDS AND STRONG UVVS WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE CPV BY
15Z SATURDAY. THOUGHT ABOUT PLACING ISOLATED THUNDER IN
GRIDS...BUT FEEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS RACING AHEAD OF ACTUAL S/W ENERGY
MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...WITH LATEST 18Z NAM SHOWING BEST
PARAMETERS ACRS NORTHERN VT/NEK. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE SYSTEM
WL BE VERY DYNAMIC WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS WL
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 0.10 TO 0.40 ON SATURDAY.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
ONLY REALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
MORE ON THAT BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUITE THE INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND MOIST E/SE MARITIME FLOW
BRING COPIOUS AMTS OF RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. IN THE
INTERIM...WILL ADVERTISE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT THIS POINT.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEEP UPPER LOW/H5 TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A DEEP AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST MARITIME FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. INDEED...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
QPF PROGS SUGGEST QUITE THE SOAKER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME SO DETAILS WILL BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW...MEAN 850 MB 0C LINE
LIFTS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO MOST
OF THIS SYSTEM PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN. DID
OPT TO NARROW T RANGE SOMEWHAT OVER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING WILL
TREND DOWNWARD INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT RUT/MSS AND IFR AT
SLK. BTV/PBG/MPV LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH CEILINGS BY
EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDS FROM 12Z WED ONWARD
AS CLOSED UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN AND LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 172337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED MINS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...AS SLK/MSS ARE ALREADY VERY CLOSE TO THEIR
EXPECTED LOWS. HAVE MENTIONED L50S SLV TO NEAR 50F AT
SLK...THINKING CLOUDS WL LIMIT TEMP FALL.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT DIGGING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WL CURVE OUT A DEEPENING TROF ACRS THE NE
CONUS ON SATURDAY. THIS ENERGY...COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500MB RH
FIELDS AND STRONG UVVS WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE CPV BY
15Z SATURDAY. THOUGHT ABOUT PLACING ISOLATED THUNDER IN
GRIDS...BUT FEEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS RACING AHEAD OF ACTUAL S/W ENERGY
MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...WITH LATEST 18Z NAM SHOWING BEST
PARAMETERS ACRS NORTHERN VT/NEK. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE SYSTEM
WL BE VERY DYNAMIC WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS WL
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 0.10 TO 0.40 ON SATURDAY.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
ONLY REALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
MORE ON THAT BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUITE THE INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND MOIST E/SE MARITIME FLOW
BRING COPIOUS AMTS OF RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. IN THE
INTERIM...WILL ADVERTISE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT THIS POINT.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEEP UPPER LOW/H5 TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A DEEP AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST MARITIME FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. INDEED...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
QPF PROGS SUGGEST QUITE THE SOAKER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME SO DETAILS WILL BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW...MEAN 850 MB 0C LINE
LIFTS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO MOST
OF THIS SYSTEM PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN. DID
OPT TO NARROW T RANGE SOMEWHAT OVER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING WILL
TREND DOWNWARD INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT RUT/MSS AND IFR AT
SLK. BTV/PBG/MPV LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH CEILINGS BY
EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDS FROM 12Z WED ONWARD
AS CLOSED UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN AND LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 172337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED MINS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...AS SLK/MSS ARE ALREADY VERY CLOSE TO THEIR
EXPECTED LOWS. HAVE MENTIONED L50S SLV TO NEAR 50F AT
SLK...THINKING CLOUDS WL LIMIT TEMP FALL.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT DIGGING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WL CURVE OUT A DEEPENING TROF ACRS THE NE
CONUS ON SATURDAY. THIS ENERGY...COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500MB RH
FIELDS AND STRONG UVVS WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE CPV BY
15Z SATURDAY. THOUGHT ABOUT PLACING ISOLATED THUNDER IN
GRIDS...BUT FEEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS RACING AHEAD OF ACTUAL S/W ENERGY
MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...WITH LATEST 18Z NAM SHOWING BEST
PARAMETERS ACRS NORTHERN VT/NEK. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE SYSTEM
WL BE VERY DYNAMIC WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS WL
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 0.10 TO 0.40 ON SATURDAY.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
ONLY REALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
MORE ON THAT BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUITE THE INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND MOIST E/SE MARITIME FLOW
BRING COPIOUS AMTS OF RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. IN THE
INTERIM...WILL ADVERTISE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT THIS POINT.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEEP UPPER LOW/H5 TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A DEEP AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST MARITIME FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. INDEED...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
QPF PROGS SUGGEST QUITE THE SOAKER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME SO DETAILS WILL BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW...MEAN 850 MB 0C LINE
LIFTS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO MOST
OF THIS SYSTEM PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN. DID
OPT TO NARROW T RANGE SOMEWHAT OVER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING WILL
TREND DOWNWARD INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT SLK/MSS ALONG WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY THAT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL WITH MVFR BY EVENING AT RUT/MSS AND IFR AT
SLK. BTV/PBG/MPV LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST VFR WITH CEILINGS BY
EVENING DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY BY LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUN THROUGH 12Z SUN...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.

12Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDS FROM 12Z WED ONWARD
AS CLOSED UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN AND LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 172321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED MINS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...AS SLK/MSS ARE ALREADY VERY CLOSE TO THEIR
EXPECTED LOWS. HAVE MENTIONED L50S SLV TO NEAR 50F AT
SLK...THINKING CLOUDS WL LIMIT TEMP FALL.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT DIGGING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WL CURVE OUT A DEEPENING TROF ACRS THE NE
CONUS ON SATURDAY. THIS ENERGY...COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500MB RH
FIELDS AND STRONG UVVS WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE CPV BY
15Z SATURDAY. THOUGHT ABOUT PLACING ISOLATED THUNDER IN
GRIDS...BUT FEEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS RACING AHEAD OF ACTUAL S/W ENERGY
MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...WITH LATEST 18Z NAM SHOWING BEST
PARAMETERS ACRS NORTHERN VT/NEK. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE SYSTEM
WL BE VERY DYNAMIC WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS WL
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 0.10 TO 0.40 ON SATURDAY.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
ONLY REALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
MORE ON THAT BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUITE THE INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND MOIST E/SE MARITIME FLOW
BRING COPIOUS AMTS OF RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. IN THE
INTERIM...WILL ADVERTISE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT THIS POINT.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEEP UPPER LOW/H5 TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A DEEP AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST MARITIME FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. INDEED...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
QPF PROGS SUGGEST QUITE THE SOAKER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME SO DETAILS WILL BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW...MEAN 850 MB 0C LINE
LIFTS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO MOST
OF THIS SYSTEM PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN. DID
OPT TO NARROW T RANGE SOMEWHAT OVER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ADDL ENERGY AFFECT THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
ONLY THE KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...THEN MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AS AFORMENTIONED
ENERGY AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY FROM 6 TO 12 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...OCCNLY GUSTY TO 20 KT THROUGH 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT THROUGH 06Z SUN...MIX OF VFR/MVFR IN SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS.

06Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDS FROM 12Z WED ONWARD
AS CLOSED UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN AND LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 172321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED MINS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...AS SLK/MSS ARE ALREADY VERY CLOSE TO THEIR
EXPECTED LOWS. HAVE MENTIONED L50S SLV TO NEAR 50F AT
SLK...THINKING CLOUDS WL LIMIT TEMP FALL.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT DIGGING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WL CURVE OUT A DEEPENING TROF ACRS THE NE
CONUS ON SATURDAY. THIS ENERGY...COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500MB RH
FIELDS AND STRONG UVVS WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE CPV BY
15Z SATURDAY. THOUGHT ABOUT PLACING ISOLATED THUNDER IN
GRIDS...BUT FEEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS RACING AHEAD OF ACTUAL S/W ENERGY
MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...WITH LATEST 18Z NAM SHOWING BEST
PARAMETERS ACRS NORTHERN VT/NEK. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE SYSTEM
WL BE VERY DYNAMIC WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS WL
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 0.10 TO 0.40 ON SATURDAY.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
ONLY REALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
MORE ON THAT BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUITE THE INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND MOIST E/SE MARITIME FLOW
BRING COPIOUS AMTS OF RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. IN THE
INTERIM...WILL ADVERTISE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT THIS POINT.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEEP UPPER LOW/H5 TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A DEEP AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST MARITIME FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. INDEED...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
QPF PROGS SUGGEST QUITE THE SOAKER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME SO DETAILS WILL BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW...MEAN 850 MB 0C LINE
LIFTS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO MOST
OF THIS SYSTEM PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN. DID
OPT TO NARROW T RANGE SOMEWHAT OVER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ADDL ENERGY AFFECT THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
ONLY THE KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...THEN MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AS AFORMENTIONED
ENERGY AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY FROM 6 TO 12 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...OCCNLY GUSTY TO 20 KT THROUGH 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT THROUGH 06Z SUN...MIX OF VFR/MVFR IN SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS.

06Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDS FROM 12Z WED ONWARD
AS CLOSED UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN AND LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 172321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL BUT SEASONAL...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED MINS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...AS SLK/MSS ARE ALREADY VERY CLOSE TO THEIR
EXPECTED LOWS. HAVE MENTIONED L50S SLV TO NEAR 50F AT
SLK...THINKING CLOUDS WL LIMIT TEMP FALL.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT DIGGING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WL CURVE OUT A DEEPENING TROF ACRS THE NE
CONUS ON SATURDAY. THIS ENERGY...COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500MB RH
FIELDS AND STRONG UVVS WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE CPV BY
15Z SATURDAY. THOUGHT ABOUT PLACING ISOLATED THUNDER IN
GRIDS...BUT FEEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS RACING AHEAD OF ACTUAL S/W ENERGY
MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...WITH LATEST 18Z NAM SHOWING BEST
PARAMETERS ACRS NORTHERN VT/NEK. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE SYSTEM
WL BE VERY DYNAMIC WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS WL
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 0.10 TO 0.40 ON SATURDAY.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
ONLY REALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DACKS AND INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
MORE ON THAT BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C
SUPPORTING PTYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OFFERING DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S VALLEYS
TO 20S ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT SO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WE SEE
COMPLETE CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE WHERE WARMER
WATERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUITE THE INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND MOIST E/SE MARITIME FLOW
BRING COPIOUS AMTS OF RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. IN THE
INTERIM...WILL ADVERTISE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT THIS POINT.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEEP UPPER LOW/H5 TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A DEEP AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST MARITIME FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. INDEED...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
QPF PROGS SUGGEST QUITE THE SOAKER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME SO DETAILS WILL BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW...MEAN 850 MB 0C LINE
LIFTS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO MOST
OF THIS SYSTEM PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN. DID
OPT TO NARROW T RANGE SOMEWHAT OVER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ADDL ENERGY AFFECT THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
ONLY THE KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...THEN MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AS AFORMENTIONED
ENERGY AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY FROM 6 TO 12 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...OCCNLY GUSTY TO 20 KT THROUGH 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT THROUGH 06Z SUN...MIX OF VFR/MVFR IN SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS.

06Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN...TRENDING VFR WITH SCT AREAS OF MVFR AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDS FROM 12Z WED ONWARD
AS CLOSED UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN AND LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG










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