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000
FXUS61 KBTV 072344
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING FAIR...DRY
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE COULD FORCING AND LIFT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PRECIPIATABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT TUESDAY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
LINGER OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG
TO FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT...AS WELL AS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 218 PM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
VERY CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON
FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND AMPLIFIES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST IS
REINFORCED BY MORE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN PREVAILING
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY SOME DISPARITY IN THE MODELS DEVELOPS IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF A TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST
BULLISH SHORTWAVE AND DEEPEST TROUGH ENTERING INTO THE BTV CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND HAS SHOWN THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN-GEM ARE MUCH WEAKER OFFERING DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE PAST FEW DAYS I`VE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION AS MY GUT TELLS ME THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SHORTWAVE ORIGINATES OUT OF THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES BUT WITH WILL PLAY IT SAFE SINCE WE`RE TALKING 5 DAYS
OUT AND GO WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH 11Z. MVFR LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS, EXPECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL LIFT EASTWARD, REVEALING VFR CONDITIONS
STARTING AT KMSS AROUND 09Z, SPREADING TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z- 13Z AND KRUT/KMPV BETWEEN 13Z-15Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR WINDS, SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 8-16KTS THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE DECREASING AND TURNING
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN
FACING SHORELINES. WINDS AND WAVES LESSEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW BACK IN
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 072344
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING FAIR...DRY
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE COULD FORCING AND LIFT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PRECIPIATABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT TUESDAY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
LINGER OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG
TO FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT...AS WELL AS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 218 PM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
VERY CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON
FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND AMPLIFIES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST IS
REINFORCED BY MORE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN PREVAILING
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY SOME DISPARITY IN THE MODELS DEVELOPS IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF A TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST
BULLISH SHORTWAVE AND DEEPEST TROUGH ENTERING INTO THE BTV CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND HAS SHOWN THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN-GEM ARE MUCH WEAKER OFFERING DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE PAST FEW DAYS I`VE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION AS MY GUT TELLS ME THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SHORTWAVE ORIGINATES OUT OF THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES BUT WITH WILL PLAY IT SAFE SINCE WE`RE TALKING 5 DAYS
OUT AND GO WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH 11Z. MVFR LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS, EXPECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL LIFT EASTWARD, REVEALING VFR CONDITIONS
STARTING AT KMSS AROUND 09Z, SPREADING TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z- 13Z AND KRUT/KMPV BETWEEN 13Z-15Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR WINDS, SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 8-16KTS THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE DECREASING AND TURNING
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN
FACING SHORELINES. WINDS AND WAVES LESSEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW BACK IN
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 072012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING FAIR...DRY
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE COULD FORCING AND LIFT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PRECIPIATABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT TUESDAY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
LINGER OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG
TO FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT...AS WELL AS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 218 PM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
VERY CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON
FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND AMPLIFIES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST IS
REINFORCED BY MORE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN PREVAILING
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY SOME DISPARITY IN THE MODELS DEVELOPS IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF A TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST
BULLISH SHORTWAVE AND DEEPEST TROUGH ENTERING INTO THE BTV CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND HAS SHOWN THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN-GEM ARE MUCH WEAKER OFFERING DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE PAST FEW DAYS I`VE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION AS MY GUT TELLS ME THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SHORTWAVE ORIGINATES OUT OF THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES BUT WITH WILL PLAY IT SAFE SINCE WE`RE TALKING 5 DAYS
OUT AND GO WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE
AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO
VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE DECREASING AND TURNING
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN
FACING SHORELINES. WINDS AND WAVES LESSEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW BACK IN
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 072012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING FAIR...DRY
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE COULD FORCING AND LIFT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PRECIPIATABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 PM EDT TUESDAY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
LINGER OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG
TO FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT...AS WELL AS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 218 PM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
VERY CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON
FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND AMPLIFIES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST IS
REINFORCED BY MORE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN PREVAILING
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY SOME DISPARITY IN THE MODELS DEVELOPS IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF A TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST
BULLISH SHORTWAVE AND DEEPEST TROUGH ENTERING INTO THE BTV CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND HAS SHOWN THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN-GEM ARE MUCH WEAKER OFFERING DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE PAST FEW DAYS I`VE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION AS MY GUT TELLS ME THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SHORTWAVE ORIGINATES OUT OF THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES BUT WITH WILL PLAY IT SAFE SINCE WE`RE TALKING 5 DAYS
OUT AND GO WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE
AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO
VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE DECREASING AND TURNING
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN
FACING SHORELINES. WINDS AND WAVES LESSEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW BACK IN
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 071819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
219 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY BREAKS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 218 PM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
VERY CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON
FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND AMPLIFIES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST IS
REINFORCED BY MORE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN PREVAILING
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY SOME DISPARITY IN THE MODELS DEVELOPS IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF A TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST
BULLISH SHORTWAVE AND DEEPEST TROUGH ENTERING INTO THE BTV CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND HAS SHOWN THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN-GEM ARE MUCH WEAKER OFFERING DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE PAST FEW DAYS I`VE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION AS MY GUT TELLS ME THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SHORTWAVE ORIGINATES OUT OF THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES BUT WITH WILL PLAY IT SAFE SINCE WE`RE TALKING 5 DAYS
OUT AND GO WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE
AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO
VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW BACK IN
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 071819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
219 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY BREAKS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 218 PM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
VERY CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON
FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND AMPLIFIES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST IS
REINFORCED BY MORE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN PREVAILING
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY SOME DISPARITY IN THE MODELS DEVELOPS IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF A TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST
BULLISH SHORTWAVE AND DEEPEST TROUGH ENTERING INTO THE BTV CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND HAS SHOWN THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE,
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN-GEM ARE MUCH WEAKER OFFERING DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE PAST FEW DAYS I`VE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION AS MY GUT TELLS ME THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SHORTWAVE ORIGINATES OUT OF THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES BUT WITH WILL PLAY IT SAFE SINCE WE`RE TALKING 5 DAYS
OUT AND GO WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE
AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO
VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW BACK IN
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 071741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY BREAKS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE
AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO
VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW BACK IN
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 071741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY BREAKS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE
AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO
VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW BACK IN
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 071741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY BREAKS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE
AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO
VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW BACK IN
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 071741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY BREAKS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE
AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO
VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW BACK IN
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 071708
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE
INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT
2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW
SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE
AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO
VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 071708
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE
INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT
2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW
SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE
AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO
VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 071708
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE
INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT
2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW
SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE
AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO
VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 071708
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE
INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT
2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW
SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE
AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO
VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 071437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE
INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT
2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW
SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE AREA.
CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR CEILINGS.
AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY GETS GOING IN THE MID MORNING
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. BETWEEN THAT
SURGE OF ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANTICIPATE
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS TO PICK UP THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 071140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE
INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT
2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW
SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE AREA.
CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR CEILINGS.
AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY GETS GOING IN THE MID MORNING
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. BETWEEN THAT
SURGE OF ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANTICIPATE
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS TO PICK UP THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 071140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE
INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT
2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW
SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE AREA.
CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR CEILINGS.
AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY GETS GOING IN THE MID MORNING
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. BETWEEN THAT
SURGE OF ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANTICIPATE
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS TO PICK UP THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 071140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE
INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT
2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW
SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE AREA.
CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR CEILINGS.
AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY GETS GOING IN THE MID MORNING
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. BETWEEN THAT
SURGE OF ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANTICIPATE
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS TO PICK UP THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 071140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE
INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT
2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW
SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE AREA.
CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR CEILINGS.
AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY GETS GOING IN THE MID MORNING
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. BETWEEN THAT
SURGE OF ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANTICIPATE
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS TO PICK UP THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 071110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE
INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT
2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW
SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 071110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE
INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT
2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW
SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 070816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.8" WITH 70 TD IN THE MID ATLANTIC SPARKING SCT TSRA EARLY
THIS MORNING TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 070816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.8" WITH 70 TD IN THE MID ATLANTIC SPARKING SCT TSRA EARLY
THIS MORNING TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 070753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 070753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 070546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 070546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 070528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 070528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 070528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 070236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST OF MID-
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND
S-CENTRAL VT TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 62-67F
RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTH/SE...AROUND 5 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 070236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST OF MID-
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND
S-CENTRAL VT TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 62-67F
RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTH/SE...AROUND 5 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 062337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 062337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 062337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 062315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 062315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 062315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 062015
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS FROM A WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLOWLY
RISING OVERNIGHT...AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 062015
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS FROM A WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLOWLY
RISING OVERNIGHT...AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 061922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 061741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 061741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 061741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 061741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 061731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (<10 KTS). SMOKE FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN CANADIAN
FIRES WILL BRING ABOUT A HAZE BUT SHOULDN/T REDUCE SURFACE VSBY
BLO 7 MILES. GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL BRING
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BUT STILL VFR. MPV/SLK WILL LIKELY
WITNESS SOME FOG BUT LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR VS. THE LIFR EXPERIENCED
THE PAST FEW OVERNIGHTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 061731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (<10 KTS). SMOKE FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN CANADIAN
FIRES WILL BRING ABOUT A HAZE BUT SHOULDN/T REDUCE SURFACE VSBY
BLO 7 MILES. GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL BRING
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BUT STILL VFR. MPV/SLK WILL LIKELY
WITNESS SOME FOG BUT LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR VS. THE LIFR EXPERIENCED
THE PAST FEW OVERNIGHTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 061441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO
CAPTURE CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S
TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (<10 KTS). SMOKE FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN CANADIAN
FIRES WILL BRING ABOUT A HAZE BUT SHOULDN/T REDUCE SURFACE VSBY
BLO 7 MILES. GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL BRING
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BUT STILL VFR. MPV/SLK WILL LIKELY
WITNESS SOME FOG BUT LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR VS. THE LIFR EXPERIENCED
THE PAST FEW OVERNIGHTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 061441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO
CAPTURE CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S
TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (<10 KTS). SMOKE FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN CANADIAN
FIRES WILL BRING ABOUT A HAZE BUT SHOULDN/T REDUCE SURFACE VSBY
BLO 7 MILES. GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL BRING
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BUT STILL VFR. MPV/SLK WILL LIKELY
WITNESS SOME FOG BUT LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR VS. THE LIFR EXPERIENCED
THE PAST FEW OVERNIGHTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 061441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO
CAPTURE CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S
TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (<10 KTS). SMOKE FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN CANADIAN
FIRES WILL BRING ABOUT A HAZE BUT SHOULDN/T REDUCE SURFACE VSBY
BLO 7 MILES. GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL BRING
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BUT STILL VFR. MPV/SLK WILL LIKELY
WITNESS SOME FOG BUT LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR VS. THE LIFR EXPERIENCED
THE PAST FEW OVERNIGHTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 061441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO
CAPTURE CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S
TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (<10 KTS). SMOKE FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN CANADIAN
FIRES WILL BRING ABOUT A HAZE BUT SHOULDN/T REDUCE SURFACE VSBY
BLO 7 MILES. GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL BRING
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BUT STILL VFR. MPV/SLK WILL LIKELY
WITNESS SOME FOG BUT LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR VS. THE LIFR EXPERIENCED
THE PAST FEW OVERNIGHTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 061147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS.
OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL
LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (<10 KTS). SMOKE FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN CANADIAN
FIRES WILL BRING ABOUT A HAZE BUT SHOULDN/T REDUCE SURFACE VSBY
BLO 7 MILES. GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL BRING
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BUT STILL VFR. MPV/SLK WILL LIKELY
WITNESS SOME FOG BUT LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR VS. THE LIFR EXPERIENCED
THE PAST FEW OVERNIGHTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 061147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS.
OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL
LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (<10 KTS). SMOKE FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN CANADIAN
FIRES WILL BRING ABOUT A HAZE BUT SHOULDN/T REDUCE SURFACE VSBY
BLO 7 MILES. GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL BRING
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BUT STILL VFR. MPV/SLK WILL LIKELY
WITNESS SOME FOG BUT LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR VS. THE LIFR EXPERIENCED
THE PAST FEW OVERNIGHTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 061111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS.
OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL
LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 061111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS.
OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL
LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 061111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS.
OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL
LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 060744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING
TWD NY. THINKING THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
RIDGE THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY
THIS AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH
VALUES BTWN 14 AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. SFC DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 060744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING
TWD NY. THINKING THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
RIDGE THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY
THIS AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH
VALUES BTWN 14 AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. SFC DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 060603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS HAVE COOLED
INTO THE UPPER 40S DEEPER MTN VALUES TO NEAR 60F BTV. ONLY CHANGE
TO CRNT FCST WAS TO DROP EXPECTED LOW TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S SLK/NEK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F CPV.

GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 060603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS HAVE COOLED
INTO THE UPPER 40S DEEPER MTN VALUES TO NEAR 60F BTV. ONLY CHANGE
TO CRNT FCST WAS TO DROP EXPECTED LOW TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S SLK/NEK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F CPV.

GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 060603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS HAVE COOLED
INTO THE UPPER 40S DEEPER MTN VALUES TO NEAR 60F BTV. ONLY CHANGE
TO CRNT FCST WAS TO DROP EXPECTED LOW TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S SLK/NEK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F CPV.

GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 060518
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS HAVE COOLED
INTO THE UPPER 40S DEEPER MTN VALUES TO NEAR 60F BTV. ONLY CHANGE
TO CRNT FCST WAS TO DROP EXPECTED LOW TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S SLK/NEK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F CPV.

GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8
KTS AT RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE
AT PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 060152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
952 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH
AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED
MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8
KTS AT RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE
AT PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 060152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
952 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH
AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED
MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8
KTS AT RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE
AT PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 052336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL APPEAR A LITTLE HAZY ALOFT DUE SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THROUGH 70S INTO 60S
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS IT
ALL COVERED. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING
PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE
USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8
KTS AT RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE
AT PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 052336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL APPEAR A LITTLE HAZY ALOFT DUE SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THROUGH 70S INTO 60S
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS IT
ALL COVERED. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING
PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE
USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8
KTS AT RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE
AT PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 052248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL APPEAR A LITTLE HAZY ALOFT DUE SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THROUGH 70S INTO 60S
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS IT
ALL COVERED. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING
PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE
USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 052248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL APPEAR A LITTLE HAZY ALOFT DUE SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THROUGH 70S INTO 60S
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS IT
ALL COVERED. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING
PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE
USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 052002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 052002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 051847
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 144 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 051847
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 144 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 051847
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 144 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 051744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 144 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 051744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 144 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 051717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 051717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 051717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 051717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 051442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 051442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 051442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 051442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 051132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS
TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 051132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS
TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 051132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS
TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 051132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS
TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 051122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS
TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 051122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS
TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 050801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL 5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID
LVL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C
TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER
80S CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 050801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL 5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID
LVL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C
TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER
80S CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 050609
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 050609
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 050609
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 050609
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 050458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 050458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 050243
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS
NOW DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY
DEPRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
AREA OF SHOWERS SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AREAWIDE AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
REGION. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND
RIVER VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 050243
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS
NOW DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY
DEPRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
AREA OF SHOWERS SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AREAWIDE AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
REGION. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND
RIVER VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 050243
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS
NOW DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY
DEPRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
AREA OF SHOWERS SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AREAWIDE AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
REGION. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND
RIVER VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 050243
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS
NOW DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY
DEPRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
AREA OF SHOWERS SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AREAWIDE AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
REGION. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND
RIVER VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





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