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000
FXUS61 KBTV 300800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL,
WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL
SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO 65
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. IT WILL BE DRY
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN
EARNEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS A RESULT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
HOWEVER...ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN AS OF LATE. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AND
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDS TO CUTOFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING AT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. &&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL SCT-BKN DECK OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC MOST OF THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
BUT REMAINING VFR.  WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 300614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL,
WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL
SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 213 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 20S AND 30S UNDER GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS
REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL SCT-BKN DECK OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC MOST OF THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
BUT REMAINING VFR.  WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 300251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT FRIDAY...GIVEN CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL
AS THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MIN
TEMPERATURES UPWARD SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY
CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BTV FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY
RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CLOUD CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC THEREAFTER. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTH UNDER 5 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 292341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 741 PM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS
TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY
CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BTV FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY
RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CLOUD CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC THEREAFTER. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTH UNDER 5 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 292316
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER
SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CLOUD CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC THEREAFTER. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTH UNDER 5 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 292316
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER
SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CLOUD CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC THEREAFTER. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTH UNDER 5 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER
SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON,
THICKENING JUST A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING AFTER
12Z SATURDAY. ONLY SPOT WHERE CLOUDS LOWER A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE CIGS WILL GO BELOW 10KFT,
BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN W/INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER
SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON,
THICKENING JUST A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING AFTER
12Z SATURDAY. ONLY SPOT WHERE CLOUDS LOWER A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE CIGS WILL GO BELOW 10KFT,
BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN W/INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291844
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
244 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO
WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 139 PM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A FANTASTIC LOOKING AFTERNOON OUT
THERE TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S, AND
JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. CAN`T SAY MUCH MORE, GET
OUT THERE AND ENJOY.

CONTINUED QUIET TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS PA/NJ MAY SPREAD SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE SKY GRIDS.
MAY ALSO MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING A BIT ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AGAIN GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING,
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEAONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON,
THICKENING JUST A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING AFTER
12Z SATURDAY. ONLY SPOT WHERE CLOUDS LOWER A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE CIGS WILL GO BELOW 10KFT,
BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN W/INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO
WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 139 PM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A FANTASTIC LOOKING AFTERNOON OUT
THERE TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S, AND
JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. CAN`T SAY MUCH MORE, GET
OUT THERE AND ENJOY.

CONTINUED QUIET TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS PA/NJ MAY SPREAD SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE SKY GRIDS.
MAY ALSO MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING A BIT ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AGAIN GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING,
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT FRIDAY...WITH RESPECT TO THE WEEKEND...ITS
LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER DAY THAN SUNDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. BACKING FLOW ALOFT TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE EVOLVE
INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
HAVING DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
ADVECTION...INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT...AND INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH TO CREATE CONVERGENCE ALL SUGGEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOOKING UNSETTLED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...THUS KEEPING THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GOING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED LOOK
TO BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON,
THICKENING JUST A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING AFTER
12Z SATURDAY. ONLY SPOT WHERE CLOUDS LOWER A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE CIGS WILL GO BELOW 10KFT,
BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN W/INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO
WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT FRIDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED. TEMPS ARE WARMING A LITTLE FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, BUT STILL ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE
50S, SO JUST NEEDED TO ADJUST THE NEXT FEW HOURS SLIGHTLY. ALONG
THOSE SAME LINES, SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST, BUT THERE`S A
PESKY LOW CLOUD DECK STILL MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. IT`S ERODING RAPIDLY THOUGH, SO DON`T
EXPECT IT TO HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THAT`S IT FOR THIS
UPDATE, ENJOY THE DAY!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC/SERN ONTARIO REMAINS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE. LIGHT N-NE WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRSTREAM (DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S) INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH TEMPS AT DAYBREAK TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
850MB TEMPS RECOVER A BIT BY AFTN...AROUND 0C ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
AND -1C TO -2C ACROSS THE NORTH. SUNNY SKIES THROUGH JUST SOME
THIN CIRRUS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A BIT TODAY INTO THE MID
50S FOR HIGHS IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOME STRATUS ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14-15Z. HIGH TEMP READINGS
TODAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5DEG BELOW CLIMO AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

CONTINUED QUIET TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS PA/NJ MAY SPREAD SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE SKY GRIDS.
MAY ALSO MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING A BIT ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AGAIN GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING,
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT FRIDAY...WITH RESPECT TO THE WEEKEND...ITS
LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER DAY THAN SUNDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. BACKING FLOW ALOFT TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE EVOLVE
INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
HAVING DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
ADVECTION...INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT...AND INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH TO CREATE CONVERGENCE ALL SUGGEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOOKING UNSETTLED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...THUS KEEPING THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GOING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED LOOK
TO BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC
AND ONTARIO REMAINS IN CONTROL BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
N-NE WINDS (LESS THAN 10KTS) THRU THE PERIOD. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THRU THE DAY SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ENEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
POTENTIAL RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. PREVAILING MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF
IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO
WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT FRIDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC/SERN ONTARIO REMAINS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE. LIGHT N-NE WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRSTREAM (DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S) INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH TEMPS AT DAYBREAK TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
850MB TEMPS RECOVER A BIT BY AFTN...AROUND 0C ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
AND -1C TO -2C ACROSS THE NORTH. SUNNY SKIES THROUGH JUST SOME
THIN CIRRUS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A BIT TODAY INTO THE MID
50S FOR HIGHS IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOME STRATUS ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14-15Z. HIGH TEMP READINGS
TODAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5DEG BELOW CLIMO AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

CONTINUED QUIET TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS PA/NJ MAY SPREAD SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE SKY GRIDS.
MAY ALSO MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING A BIT ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AGAIN GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING,
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT FRIDAY...WITH RESPECT TO THE WEEKEND...ITS
LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER DAY THAN SUNDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. BACKING FLOW ALOFT TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE EVOLVE
INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
HAVING DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
ADVECTION...INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT...AND INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH TO CREATE CONVERGENCE ALL SUGGEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOOKING UNSETTLED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...THUS KEEPING THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GOING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED LOOK
TO BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC
AND ONTARIO REMAINS IN CONTROL BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
N-NE WINDS (LESS THAN 10KTS) THRU THE PERIOD. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THRU THE DAY SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ENEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
POTENTIAL RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. PREVAILING MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF
IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 290745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO
WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT FRIDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC/SERN ONTARIO REMAINS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE. LIGHT N-NE WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRSTREAM (DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S) INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER CHILLY START
WITH TEMPS AT DAYBREAK TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. 850MB TEMPS
RECOVER A BIT BY AFTN...AROUND 0C ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT AND -1C TO
-2C ACROSS THE NORTH. SUNNY SKIES THROUGH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A BIT TODAY INTO THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMP READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOUT
5DEG BELOW CLIMO AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

CONTINUED QUIET TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS PA/NJ MAY SPREAD SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE SKY GRIDS.
MAY ALSO MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING A BIT ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AGAIN GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING,
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT FRIDAY...WITH RESPECT TO THE WEEKEND...ITS
LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE A BETTER DAY THAN SUNDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. BACKING FLOW ALOFT TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE EVOLVE
INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
HAVING DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
ADVECTION...INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT...AND INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH TO CREATE CONVERGENCE ALL SUGGEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOOKING UNSETTLED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...THUS KEEPING THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GOING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED LOOK
TO BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC
AND ONTARIO REMAINS IN CONTROL BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
N-NE WINDS (LESS THAN 10KTS) THRU THE PERIOD. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THRU THE DAY SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ENEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
POTENTIAL RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. PREVAILING MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF
IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 290556
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO
WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT FRIDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC/SERN ONTARIO
REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE. LIGHT N-NE WINDS AROUND
THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRSTREAM
(DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S) INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ANOTHER CHILLY START WITH TEMPS AT DAYBREAK TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE
20S. 850MB TEMPS RECOVER A BIT BY AFTN...AROUND 0C ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT AND -1C TO -2C ACROSS THE NORTH. SUNNY SKIES THROUGH
JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A BIT TODAY INTO
THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMP READINGS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5DEG BELOW CLIMO AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

CONTINUED QUIET TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS PA/NJ MAY SPREAD SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE SKY GRIDS.
MAY ALSO MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING A BIT ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AGAIN GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING,
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE TIME PERIOD AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS THE
FEATURES OF NOTE THROUGH SUNDAY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES BEGINS TO USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE,
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST
OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY
WITH THE PROSPECT OF RAIN SPREADING OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES THE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...WITH JUST
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPPER ENERGY WITHIN A SLOWLY MOVING MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A COASTAL
SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS...BUT 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA LATE
MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC
AND ONTARIO REMAINS IN CONTROL BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
N-NE WINDS (LESS THAN 10KTS) THRU THE PERIOD. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THRU THE DAY SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ENEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
POTENTIAL RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. PREVAILING MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF
IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 290237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE BY DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE TIME PERIOD AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS THE
FEATURES OF NOTE THROUGH SUNDAY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES BEGINS TO USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE,
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST
OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY
WITH THE PROSPECT OF RAIN SPREADING OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES THE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...WITH JUST
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPPER ENERGY WITHIN A SLOWLY MOVING MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A COASTAL
SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS...BUT 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA LATE
MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS AT RUT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, BUT WON`T
BE MUCH MORE THAN THAT. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LOCALLY GOVERNED
BY TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THRU SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 282355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
755 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH SKY CONDITIONS VARYING
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE TIME PERIOD AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS THE
FEATURES OF NOTE THROUGH SUNDAY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES BEGINS TO USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE,
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST
OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY
WITH THE PROSPECT OF RAIN SPREADING OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES THE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...WITH JUST
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPPER ENERGY WITHIN A SLOWLY MOVING MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A COASTAL
SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS...BUT 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA LATE
MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS AT RUT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, BUT WON`T
BE MUCH MORE THAN THAT. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LOCALLY GOVERNED
BY TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THRU SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 282355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
755 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH SKY CONDITIONS VARYING
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE TIME PERIOD AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS THE
FEATURES OF NOTE THROUGH SUNDAY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES BEGINS TO USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE,
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST
OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY
WITH THE PROSPECT OF RAIN SPREADING OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES THE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...WITH JUST
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPPER ENERGY WITHIN A SLOWLY MOVING MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A COASTAL
SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS...BUT 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA LATE
MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS AT RUT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, BUT WON`T
BE MUCH MORE THAN THAT. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LOCALLY GOVERNED
BY TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THRU SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 282306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING
SOMEWHAT. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY
NEAR 20F SLK/NERN VT) WITH MAINLY PERIODS OF THIN
CIRRUS...ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE TIME PERIOD AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS THE
FEATURES OF NOTE THROUGH SUNDAY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES BEGINS TO USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE,
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST
OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY
WITH THE PROSPECT OF RAIN SPREADING OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES THE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...WITH JUST
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPPER ENERGY WITHIN A SLOWLY MOVING MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A COASTAL
SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS...BUT 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA LATE
MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS AT RUT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, BUT WON`T
BE MUCH MORE THAN THAT. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LOCALLY GOVERNED
BY TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THRU SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281954
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING
SOMEWHAT. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY
NEAR 20F SLK/NERN VT) WITH MAINLY PERIODS OF THIN
CIRRUS...ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE TIME PERIOD AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS THE
FEATURES OF NOTE THROUGH SUNDAY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES BEGINS TO USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE,
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST
OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY
WITH THE PROSPECT OF RAIN SPREADING OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES THE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...WITH JUST
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPPER ENERGY WITHIN A SLOWLY MOVING MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A COASTAL
SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS...BUT 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA LATE
MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
LIGHT WINDS. SKC DAYTIME WITH SCT250 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...MAYBE TRENDING TOWARD BKN250 BY MID MORNING THURSDAY
AROUND KSLK AND KRUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU
SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/ALY
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/ALY
SHORT TERM...KGM/ALY
LONG TERM...KGM/ALY
AVIATION...BANACOS/ALY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281715
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NEW YORK AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES SLOW TO RISE BUT MAINLY INTO THE 40S...AS COLD
ADVECTION HAS SLOWED THE WARMING. STRATOCU HAS MIXED OUT BUT SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTHEST INTO SOME
PARTS OF NORTHERN NY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...SOMETIMES A LITTLE GUSTY IN
SOME AREAS...AS PBL DEEPENS UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH WEAK GRADIENT
FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS. THE 850MB TEMPS SHOULD
MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS UPR LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC PROGRESSES A BIT
FURTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO -3C
SOUTH AND -6C NORTH...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND THE HIGHS
FROM YESTERDAY, GENERALLY 50-56F. POPS NIL.

LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT.
STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY NEAR 20F
SLK/NERN VT) BUT DID ADJUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS
CONSENSUS WITH POTL CIRRUS AND AS SUGGESTED PER RECENT MODEL BIAS
CORRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BEGINS TO
USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONVERGING ON
SOLUTION FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE, WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
COASTAL SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS, BUT 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA
LATE MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
LIGHT WINDS. SKC DAYTIME WITH SCT250 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...MAYBE TRENDING TOWARD BKN250 BY MID MORNING HURSDAY
AROUND KSLK AND KRUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU
SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/ALY
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/ALY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281710
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 104 PM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NEW YORK AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES SLOW TO RISE BUT MAINLY INTO THE 40S...AS COLD
ADVECTION HAS SLOWED THE WARMING. STRATOCU HAS MIXED OUT BUT SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTHEST INTO SOME
PARTS OF NORTHERN NY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...SOMETIMES A LITTLE GUSTY IN
SOME AREAS...AS PBL DEEPENS UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH WEAK GRADIENT
FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS. THE 850MB TEMPS SHOULD
MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS UPR LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC PROGRESSES A BIT
FURTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO -3C
SOUTH AND -6C NORTH...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND THE HIGHS
FROM YESTERDAY, GENERALLY 50-56F. POPS NIL.

LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT.
STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY NEAR 20F
SLK/NERN VT) BUT DID ADJUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS
CONSENSUS WITH POTL CIRRUS AND AS SUGGESTED PER RECENT MODEL BIAS
CORRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BEGINS TO
USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONVERGING ON
SOLUTION FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE, WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
COASTAL SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS, BUT 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA
LATE MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
LIGHT WINDS. FEW-SCT050 FAR NERN VT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SKC
DAYTIME WITH SCT250 TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU
SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/ALY
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281710
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 104 PM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NEW YORK AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES SLOW TO RISE BUT MAINLY INTO THE 40S...AS COLD
ADVECTION HAS SLOWED THE WARMING. STRATOCU HAS MIXED OUT BUT SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTHEST INTO SOME
PARTS OF NORTHERN NY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...SOMETIMES A LITTLE GUSTY IN
SOME AREAS...AS PBL DEEPENS UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH WEAK GRADIENT
FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS. THE 850MB TEMPS SHOULD
MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS UPR LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC PROGRESSES A BIT
FURTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO -3C
SOUTH AND -6C NORTH...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND THE HIGHS
FROM YESTERDAY, GENERALLY 50-56F. POPS NIL.

LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT.
STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY NEAR 20F
SLK/NERN VT) BUT DID ADJUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS
CONSENSUS WITH POTL CIRRUS AND AS SUGGESTED PER RECENT MODEL BIAS
CORRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BEGINS TO
USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONVERGING ON
SOLUTION FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE, WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
COASTAL SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS, BUT 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA
LATE MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
LIGHT WINDS. FEW-SCT050 FAR NERN VT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SKC
DAYTIME WITH SCT250 TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU
SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/ALY
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281420
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NEW YORK AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRINGING A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPS AT SUNRISE MAINLY IN THE 20S (AND 10 TO 15DEG BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE APRIL). PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW (WITH UPR
LOW ACROSS ERN QUEBEC) RESULTING IN A FEW STRATOCU/STRATUS ACROSS
FAR NERN VT WITH REPORTS OF ISOLD SW--. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS
PBL DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH WEAK
GRADIENT FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS. THE 850MB TEMPS
DO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS UPR LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC PROGRESSES A BIT
FURTHER EAST TODAY. WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS MODERATE THIS AFTN TO -3C
SOUTH AND -6C NORTH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, GENERALLY 52-56F. POPS NIL.

LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT.
STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY NEAR 20F
SLK/NERN VT) BUT DID ADJUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS
CONSENSUS WITH POTL CIRRUS AND AS SUGGESTED PER RECENT MODEL BIAS
CORRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BEGINS TO
USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONVERGING ON
SOLUTION FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE, WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
COASTAL SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS, BUT 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA
LATE MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
LIGHT WINDS. FEW-SCT050 FAR NERN VT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SKC
DAYTIME WITH SCT250 TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU
SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/ALY
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281153
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
753 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 748 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NEW YORK AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRINGING A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPS AT SUNRISE MAINLY IN THE 20S (AND 10 TO 15DEG BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE APRIL). PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW (WITH UPR
LOW ACROSS ERN QUEBEC) RESULTING IN A FEW STRATOCU/STRATUS ACROSS
FAR NERN VT WITH REPORTS OF ISOLD SW--. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE NEXT 1-2 HRS. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS PBL DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING UNDER
SUNNY SKIES WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE
AXIS. THE 850MB TEMPS DO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS UPR LOW OVER ERN
QUEBEC PROGRESSES A BIT FURTHER EAST TODAY. WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS
MODERATE THIS AFTN TO -3C SOUTH AND -6C NORTH THIS AFTN...AND
SHOULD SEE TEMPS 2-3F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, GENERALLY 52-56F.
POPS NIL.

LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT.
STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY NEAR 20F
SLK/NERN VT) BUT DID ADJUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS
CONSENSUS WITH POTL CIRRUS AND AS SUGGESTED PER RECENT MODEL BIAS
CORRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BEGINS TO
USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONVERGING ON
SOLUTION FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE, WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
COASTAL SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS, BUT 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA
LATE MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
LIGHT WINDS. FEW-SCT050 FAR NERN VT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SKC
DAYTIME WITH SCT250 TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU
SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281153
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
753 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 748 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NEW YORK AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRINGING A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPS AT SUNRISE MAINLY IN THE 20S (AND 10 TO 15DEG BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE APRIL). PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW (WITH UPR
LOW ACROSS ERN QUEBEC) RESULTING IN A FEW STRATOCU/STRATUS ACROSS
FAR NERN VT WITH REPORTS OF ISOLD SW--. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE NEXT 1-2 HRS. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS PBL DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING UNDER
SUNNY SKIES WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE
AXIS. THE 850MB TEMPS DO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS UPR LOW OVER ERN
QUEBEC PROGRESSES A BIT FURTHER EAST TODAY. WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS
MODERATE THIS AFTN TO -3C SOUTH AND -6C NORTH THIS AFTN...AND
SHOULD SEE TEMPS 2-3F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, GENERALLY 52-56F.
POPS NIL.

LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT.
STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY NEAR 20F
SLK/NERN VT) BUT DID ADJUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS
CONSENSUS WITH POTL CIRRUS AND AS SUGGESTED PER RECENT MODEL BIAS
CORRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BEGINS TO
USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONVERGING ON
SOLUTION FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE, WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
COASTAL SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS, BUT 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA
LATE MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
LIGHT WINDS. FEW-SCT050 FAR NERN VT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SKC
DAYTIME WITH SCT250 TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU
SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 280800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NEW YORK AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEAR SKIES BRINGING A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS AT
SUNRISE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 20S (AND 10 TO 15DEG BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL). WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AS PBL DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH
WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS. THE 850MB
TEMPS DO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS UPR LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC PROGRESSES A
BIT FURTHER EAST TODAY. WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS MODERATE THIS AFTN TO
-3C SOUTH AND -6C NORTH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS 2-3F
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, GENERALLY 52-56F. POPS NIL.

LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT.
STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY NEAR 20F
SLK/NERN VT) BUT DID ADJUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS
CONSENSUS WITH POTL CIRRUS AND AS SUGGESTED PER RECENT MODEL BIAS
CORRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BEGINS TO
USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONVERGING ON
SOLUTION FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE, WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
COASTAL SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS, BUT 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA
LATE MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
LIGHT WINDS. SKC DAYTIME WITH SKC-SCT250 TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU
SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 280735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NEW YORK AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEAR SKIES BRINGING A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS AT
SUNRISE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 20S (AND 10 TO 15DEG BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL). WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AS PBL DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH
WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS. THE 850MB
TEMPS DO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS UPR LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC PROGRESSES A
BIT FURTHER EAST TODAY. WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS MODERATE THIS AFTN TO
-3C SOUTH AND -6C NORTH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS 2-3F
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, GENERALLY 52-56F. POPS NIL.

LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWARD AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT.
STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY NEAR 20F
SLK/NERN VT) BUT DID ADJUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS
CONSENSUS WITH POTL CIRRUS AND AS SUGGESTED PER RECENT MODEL BIAS
CORRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S/30S, WITH MEAN 925- 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO
+3C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT STILL
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOING INTO SUNDAY,
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT TREND
TOWARDS BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SOME MOISTURE WORKS
ITS WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
MOISTURE FOR ME TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY, BUT I CAN SEE THE
FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY IN GUIDANCE DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WARMING
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
LIGHT WINDS. SKC DAYTIME WITH SKC-SCT250 TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU
SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 280540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NEW YORK AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE. CLEAR SKIES BRINGING A
CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS AT SUNRISE GENERALLY EXPECTED
IN THE 20S (AND 10 TO 15DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL). WILL SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS PBL DEEPENS LATER THIS
MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ON ERN
PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS. THE 850MB TEMPS DO MODERATE SLIGHTLY
AS UPR LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC PROGRESSES A BIT FURTHER EAST TODAY.
WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS MODERATE THIS AFTN TO -3C SOUTH AND -6C NORTH
THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS 2-3F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY,
GENERALLY 52-56F. POPS NIL.

LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWARD AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT.
STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY NEAR 20F
SLK/NERN VT) BUT DID ADJUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS
CONSENSUS WITH POTL CIRRUS AND AS SUGGESTED PER RECENT MODEL BIAS
CORRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S/30S, WITH MEAN 925- 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO
+3C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT STILL
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOING INTO SUNDAY,
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT TREND
TOWARDS BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SOME MOISTURE WORKS
ITS WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
MOISTURE FOR ME TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY, BUT I CAN SEE THE
FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY IN GUIDANCE DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WARMING
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
LIGHT WINDS. SKC DAYTIME WITH SKC-SCT250 TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU
SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 280238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND THE REST OF
THIS WEEK. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE NORTH
COUNTRY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN MID 50S THROUGH SUNDAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING THAT THE
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE NOW MOVED TO THE MAINE
COAST. SKIES HAVE GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS UP SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE ALOFT. COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE AND
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND CALMING WINDS ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
GIVEN THAT 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT I ANTICIPATE
TONIGHT BEING COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES. THAT
RESULTS IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR THE
NORTH COUNTY. TOMORROW REMAINS STATUS QUO WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING BY MID MORNING. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE FLOW TURNS
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BUT COLDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE
LOW 50S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN
VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S/30S, WITH MEAN 925- 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO
+3C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT STILL
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOING INTO SUNDAY,
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT TREND
TOWARDS BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SOME MOISTURE WORKS
ITS WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
MOISTURE FOR ME TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY, BUT I CAN SEE THE
FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY IN GUIDANCE DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WARMING
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO
SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 272338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND THE REST OF
THIS WEEK. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE NORTH
COUNTRY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN MID 50S THROUGH SUNDAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 738 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION SHOW SOME MID LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA. CEILINGS OF THESE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 10000 FEET. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AMD WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE ALOFT. COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE AND
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND CALMING WINDS ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
GIVEN THAT 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT I ANTICIPATE
TONIGHT BEING COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES. THAT
RESULTS IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR THE
NORTH COUNTY. TOMORROW REMAINS STATUS QUO WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING BY MID MORNING. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE FLOW TURNS
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BUT COLDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE
LOW 50S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN
VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S/30S, WITH MEAN 925- 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO
+3C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT STILL
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOING INTO SUNDAY,
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT TREND
TOWARDS BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SOME MOISTURE WORKS
ITS WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
MOISTURE FOR ME TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY, BUT I CAN SEE THE
FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY IN GUIDANCE DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WARMING
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO
SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 272315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND THE REST
OF THIS WEEK. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE NORTH
COUNTRY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN MID 50S THROUGH SUNDAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ALOFT. COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE AND THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. GIVEN THAT 925MB
TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT I ANTICIPATE TONIGHT BEING
COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES. THAT RESULTS IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR THE NORTH COUNTY.
TOMORROW REMAINS STATUS QUO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BY MID
MORNING. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY OVER
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST BUT COLDER OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE THE FLOW
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S/30S, WITH MEAN 925- 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO
+3C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT STILL
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOING INTO SUNDAY,
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT TREND
TOWARDS BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SOME MOISTURE WORKS
ITS WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
MOISTURE FOR ME TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY, BUT I CAN SEE THE
FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY IN GUIDANCE DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WARMING
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO
SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271948
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND THE REST
OF THIS WEEK. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE NORTH
COUNTRY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN MID 50S THROUGH SUNDAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ALOFT. COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE AND THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. GIVEN THAT 925MB
TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT I ANTICIPATE TONIGHT BEING
COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES. THAT RESULTS IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR THE NORTH COUNTY.
TOMORROW REMAINS STATUS QUO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BY MID
MORNING. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY OVER
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST BUT COLDER OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE THE FLOW
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S/30S, WITH MEAN 925- 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO
+3C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT STILL
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOING INTO SUNDAY,
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT TREND
TOWARDS BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SOME MOISTURE WORKS
ITS WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
MOISTURE FOR ME TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY, BUT I CAN SEE THE
FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY IN GUIDANCE DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WARMING
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.
DURING THE DAY EXPECT GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT BOTH MSS AND MPV
WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS INTERMITTENTLY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WITH
UNRESTRICTED VSBY AND NO SIG WX.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO
SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...BANACOS/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271948
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND THE REST
OF THIS WEEK. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE NORTH
COUNTRY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN MID 50S THROUGH SUNDAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ALOFT. COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE AND THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. GIVEN THAT 925MB
TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT I ANTICIPATE TONIGHT BEING
COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES. THAT RESULTS IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR THE NORTH COUNTY.
TOMORROW REMAINS STATUS QUO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BY MID
MORNING. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY OVER
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST BUT COLDER OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE THE FLOW
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S/30S, WITH MEAN 925- 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO
+3C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT STILL
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOING INTO SUNDAY,
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT TREND
TOWARDS BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SOME MOISTURE WORKS
ITS WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
MOISTURE FOR ME TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY, BUT I CAN SEE THE
FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY IN GUIDANCE DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WARMING
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.
DURING THE DAY EXPECT GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT BOTH MSS AND MPV
WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS INTERMITTENTLY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WITH
UNRESTRICTED VSBY AND NO SIG WX.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO
SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...BANACOS/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271939
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN MOST SECTIONS TODAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINTAINING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS.
ONCE PBL DEEPENS THIS MORNING...WILL SEE GENERALLY NW WINDS 5-10
MPH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. MAY
SEE A FEW CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NRN/NERN VT ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LOW ACROSS ERN QUEBEC...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY TODAY AND CLEAR AGAIN
TONIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS -4C TO
-7C FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN WITH FULL
SUN...ONLY LOOKING AT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...10-15DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S/30S, WITH MEAN 925- 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO
+3C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT STILL
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOING INTO SUNDAY,
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT TREND
TOWARDS BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SOME MOISTURE WORKS
ITS WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
MOISTURE FOR ME TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY, BUT I CAN SEE THE
FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY IN GUIDANCE DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WARMING
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.
DURING THE DAY EXPECT GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT BOTH MSS AND MPV
WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS INTERMITTENTLY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WITH
UNRESTRICTED VSBY AND NO SIG WX.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO
SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...BANACOS/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271939
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN MOST SECTIONS TODAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINTAINING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS.
ONCE PBL DEEPENS THIS MORNING...WILL SEE GENERALLY NW WINDS 5-10
MPH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. MAY
SEE A FEW CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NRN/NERN VT ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LOW ACROSS ERN QUEBEC...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY TODAY AND CLEAR AGAIN
TONIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS -4C TO
-7C FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN WITH FULL
SUN...ONLY LOOKING AT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...10-15DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S/30S, WITH MEAN 925- 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO
+3C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT STILL
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOING INTO SUNDAY,
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT TREND
TOWARDS BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SOME MOISTURE WORKS
ITS WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
MOISTURE FOR ME TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY, BUT I CAN SEE THE
FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY IN GUIDANCE DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARDS WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WARMING
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.
DURING THE DAY EXPECT GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT BOTH MSS AND MPV
WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS INTERMITTENTLY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WITH
UNRESTRICTED VSBY AND NO SIG WX.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO
SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...BANACOS/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
225 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN MOST SECTIONS TODAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINTAINING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS.
ONCE PBL DEEPENS THIS MORNING...WILL SEE GENERALLY NW WINDS 5-10
MPH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. MAY
SEE A FEW CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NRN/NERN VT ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LOW ACROSS ERN QUEBEC...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY TODAY AND CLEAR AGAIN
TONIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS -4C TO
-7C FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN WITH FULL
SUN...ONLY LOOKING AT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...10-15DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPS NW FLOW AND
INFLUX OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW CLOUDS WILL
CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY.

THIS REGIME WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WITH DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 25 TO 35% RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE DRY AIR, WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 10-15KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY AND THUS REMAINING
WELL BELOW OUR FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LACKING IN MOISTURE,
ONLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS DO SHOW THIS SYSTEM TRACKING EAST MONDAY, BUT
HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES IS UP FOR DEBATE. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MAXES
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND MINS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.
DURING THE DAY EXPECT GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT BOTH MSS AND MPV
WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS INTERMITTENTLY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WITH
UNRESTRICTED VSBY AND NO SIG WX.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO
SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN MOST SECTIONS TODAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 729 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATING BY 13Z.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINTAINING
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS. ONCE PBL DEEPENS THIS
MORNING...WILL SEE GENERALLY NW WINDS 5-10 MPH WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY NRN/NERN VT ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN
QUEBEC...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY TODAY AND CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS -4C TO -7C FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN WITH FULL SUN...ONLY LOOKING
AT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...10-15DEG
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPS NW FLOW AND
INFLUX OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW CLOUDS WILL
CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY.

THIS REGIME WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WITH DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 25 TO 35% RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE DRY AIR, WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 10-15KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY AND THUS REMAINING
WELL BELOW OUR FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LACKING IN MOISTURE,
ONLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS DO SHOW THIS SYSTEM TRACKING EAST MONDAY, BUT
HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES IS UP FOR DEBATE. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MAXES
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND MINS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...IFR FOG DISSIPATING AT KRUT BY 1230-1300Z.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY AND NO SIG WX.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO
SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS





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