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000
FXUS61 KBTV 231141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST BY SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY. A STRONG WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP ALL FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN NEARLY ALL
SPOTS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS
NEEDED TO SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT MORNING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...COOL AND QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LOW PULLS STEADILY AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SLIDES BODILY SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. BLENDED MODEL 925-850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
MODESTLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
WITH WINDS TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER TIME
TONIGHT. WITH STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER AND WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF SEASONABLE
LATE MAY VALUES IN MOST SPOTS (40S). THERE COULD BE SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT
AS DEEPENING WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES BEGIN ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY DEEPENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
CONSIDERABLY WITH MOST SPOTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON AND WASH OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME ACROSS NC/NE VT.
NOMINAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOWER-END SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDER PERECENTAGES AROUND 20 PERCENT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA AS WELL, BUT WITH SUCH A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITRE LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

THEN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT TO
MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING BY LATER AT NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER FAR
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST SPOTS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY WHERE
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE EVIDENT. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH SOME OF OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES
LIKELY REMAINING DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH SHARP
WARMING ALOFT AT ODDS WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
AN IDEA CLOSER TO LATEST SREF BIAS-CORRECTED MEANS SHOWING COOLEST
READINGS NORTH AND EAST (L-M 70S) AND WARMER SOUTH AND WEST (UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S) WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY AS NORTHERN STREAM ATTEMPTS TO BRING A
FRONT INTO/ACROSS AREA MID/LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS TO HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION IS BORROWED FROM DAYSHIFT AS THINKING IS
GENERALLY THE SAME...NO WIDESCALE WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED YET CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEK WILL
BRING ABOUT ADEQUATE CHANCES OF EATING INTO OUR PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS.

WARM FRONT MON NGT WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE WITH GREATEST ACROSS NRN NY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL ESTABLISHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE
BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC CONDITIONS BUT CLOUD
COVER WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES.

THE LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
STORMS DURING MID WEEK WITH A BETTER THREAT LATE WEEK AS FRONT MAKES
ATTEMPT TO PUSH ACROSS REGION BUT MAY GET HUNG UP AND MOVE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

THESE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERAURES MAY PLACE BTV AS THE WARMEST
MAY ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN
LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO BKN SAT NGT/SUN MRNG.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST
MPV. WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS SLOWLY DIMINSHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15 TO 25%) ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL EXACERBATE THESE
CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START TODAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST BY SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY. A STRONG WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP ALL FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN NEARLY ALL
SPOTS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS
NEEDED TO SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT MORNING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...COOL AND QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LOW PULLS STEADILY AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SLIDES BODILY SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. BLENDED MODEL 925-850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
MODESTLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
WITH WINDS TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER TIME
TONIGHT. WITH STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER AND WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF SEASONABLE
LATE MAY VALUES IN MOST SPOTS (40S). THERE COULD BE SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT
AS DEEPENING WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES BEGIN ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY DEEPENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
CONSIDERABLY WITH MOST SPOTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON AND WASH OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME ACROSS NC/NE VT.
NOMINAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOWER-END SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDER PERECENTAGES AROUND 20 PERCENT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA AS WELL, BUT WITH SUCH A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITRE LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

THEN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT TO
MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING BY LATER AT NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER FAR
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST SPOTS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY WHERE
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE EVIDENT. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH SOME OF OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES
LIKELY REMAINING DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH SHARP
WARMING ALOFT AT ODDS WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
AN IDEA CLOSER TO LATEST SREF BIAS-CORRECTED MEANS SHOWING COOLEST
READINGS NORTH AND EAST (L-M 70S) AND WARMER SOUTH AND WEST (UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S) WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY AS NORTHERN STREAM ATTEMPTS TO BRING A
FRONT INTO/ACROSS AREA MID/LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS TO HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION IS BORROWED FROM DAYSHIFT AS THINKING IS
GENERALLY THE SAME...NO WIDESCALE WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED YET CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEK WILL
BRING ABOUT ADEQUATE CHANCES OF EATING INTO OUR PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS.

WARM FRONT MON NGT WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE WITH GREATEST ACROSS NRN NY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL ESTABLISHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE
BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC CONDITIONS BUT CLOUD
COVER WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES.

THE LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
STORMS DURING MID WEEK WITH A BETTER THREAT LATE WEEK AS FRONT MAKES
ATTEMPT TO PUSH ACROSS REGION BUT MAY GET HUNG UP AND MOVE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

THESE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERAURES MAY PLACE BTV AS THE WARMEST
MAY ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN
LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO BKN SAT NGT/SUN MRNG.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST
MPV. WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS SLOWLY DIMINSHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15 TO 25%) ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL EXACERBATE THESE
CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START TODAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST BY SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY. A STRONG WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP ALL FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN NEARLY ALL
SPOTS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS
NEEDED TO SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT MORNING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...COOL AND QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LOW PULLS STEADILY AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SLIDES BODILY SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. BLENDED MODEL 925-850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
MODESTLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
WITH WINDS TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER TIME
TONIGHT. WITH STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER AND WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF SEASONABLE
LATE MAY VALUES IN MOST SPOTS (40S). THERE COULD BE SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT
AS DEEPENING WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES BEGIN ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY DEEPENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
CONSIDERABLY WITH MOST SPOTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON AND WASH OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME ACROSS NC/NE VT.
NOMINAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOWER-END SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDER PERECENTAGES AROUND 20 PERCENT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA AS WELL, BUT WITH SUCH A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITRE LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

THEN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT TO
MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING BY LATER AT NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER FAR
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST SPOTS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY WHERE
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE EVIDENT. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH SOME OF OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES
LIKELY REMAINING DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH SHARP
WARMING ALOFT AT ODDS WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
AN IDEA CLOSER TO LATEST SREF BIAS-CORRECTED MEANS SHOWING COOLEST
READINGS NORTH AND EAST (L-M 70S) AND WARMER SOUTH AND WEST (UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S) WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY AS NORTHERN STREAM ATTEMPTS TO BRING A
FRONT INTO/ACROSS AREA MID/LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS TO HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION IS BORROWED FROM DAYSHIFT AS THINKING IS
GENERALLY THE SAME...NO WIDESCALE WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED YET CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEK WILL
BRING ABOUT ADEQUATE CHANCES OF EATING INTO OUR PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS.

WARM FRONT MON NGT WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE WITH GREATEST ACROSS NRN NY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL ESTABLISHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE
BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC CONDITIONS BUT CLOUD
COVER WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES.

THE LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
STORMS DURING MID WEEK WITH A BETTER THREAT LATE WEEK AS FRONT MAKES
ATTEMPT TO PUSH ACROSS REGION BUT MAY GET HUNG UP AND MOVE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

THESE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERAURES MAY PLACE BTV AS THE WARMEST
MAY ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK CONTNIUES TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL HANGING
IN A BIT WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS VT. EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO BKN SAT NGT/SUN MRNG.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEST/NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV.
WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS SLOWLY DIMINSHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15 TO 25%) ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL EXACERBATE THESE
CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START TODAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST BY SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY. A STRONG WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP ALL FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN NEARLY ALL
SPOTS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS
NEEDED TO SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT MORNING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...COOL AND QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LOW PULLS STEADILY AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SLIDES BODILY SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. BLENDED MODEL 925-850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
MODESTLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
WITH WINDS TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER TIME
TONIGHT. WITH STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER AND WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF SEASONABLE
LATE MAY VALUES IN MOST SPOTS (40S). THERE COULD BE SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT
AS DEEPENING WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES BEGIN ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY DEEPENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
CONSIDERABLY WITH MOST SPOTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON AND WASH OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME ACROSS NC/NE VT.
NOMINAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOWER-END SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDER PERECENTAGES AROUND 20 PERCENT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA AS WELL, BUT WITH SUCH A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITRE LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

THEN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT TO
MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING BY LATER AT NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER FAR
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST SPOTS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY WHERE
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE EVIDENT. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH SOME OF OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES
LIKELY REMAINING DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH SHARP
WARMING ALOFT AT ODDS WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
AN IDEA CLOSER TO LATEST SREF BIAS-CORRECTED MEANS SHOWING COOLEST
READINGS NORTH AND EAST (L-M 70S) AND WARMER SOUTH AND WEST (UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S) WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY AS NORTHERN STREAM ATTEMPTS TO BRING A
FRONT INTO/ACROSS AREA MID/LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS TO HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION IS BORROWED FROM DAYSHIFT AS THINKING IS
GENERALLY THE SAME...NO WIDESCALE WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED YET CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEK WILL
BRING ABOUT ADEQUATE CHANCES OF EATING INTO OUR PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS.

WARM FRONT MON NGT WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE WITH GREATEST ACROSS NRN NY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL ESTABLISHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE
BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC CONDITIONS BUT CLOUD
COVER WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES.

THE LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
STORMS DURING MID WEEK WITH A BETTER THREAT LATE WEEK AS FRONT MAKES
ATTEMPT TO PUSH ACROSS REGION BUT MAY GET HUNG UP AND MOVE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

THESE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERAURES MAY PLACE BTV AS THE WARMEST
MAY ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK CONTNIUES TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL HANGING
IN A BIT WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS VT. EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO BKN SAT NGT/SUN MRNG.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEST/NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV.
WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS SLOWLY DIMINSHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15 TO 25%) ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL EXACERBATE THESE
CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START TODAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST BY SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY. A STRONG WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...COOL AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW PULLS
STEADILY AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN SLIDES BODILY SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BLENDED MODEL 925-850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER MODESTLY GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
WITH WINDS TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER TIME
TONIGHT. WITH STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER AND WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF SEASONABLE
LATE MAY VALUES IN MOST SPOTS (40S). THERE COULD BE SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT
AS DEEPENING WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES BEGIN ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY DEEPENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
CONSIDERABLY WITH MOST SPOTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON AND WASH OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME ACROSS NC/NE VT.
NOMINAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOWER-END SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDER PERECENTAGES AROUND 20 PERCENT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA AS WELL, BUT WITH SUCH A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITRE LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

THEN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT TO
MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING BY LATER AT NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER FAR
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST SPOTS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY WHERE
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE EVIDENT. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH SOME OF OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES
LIKELY REMAINING DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH SHARP
WARMING ALOFT AT ODDS WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
AN IDEA CLOSER TO LATEST SREF BIAS-CORRECTED MEANS SHOWING COOLEST
READINGS NORTH AND EAST (L-M 70S) AND WARMER SOUTH AND WEST (UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S) WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY AS NORTHERN STREAM ATTEMPTS TO BRING A
FRONT INTO/ACROSS AREA MID/LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS TO HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION IS BORROWED FROM DAYSHIFT AS THINKING IS
GENERALLY THE SAME...NO WIDESCALE WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED YET CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEK WILL
BRING ABOUT ADEQUATE CHANCES OF EATING INTO OUR PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS.

WARM FRONT MON NGT WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE WITH GREATEST ACROSS NRN NY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL ESTABLISHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE
BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC CONDITIONS BUT CLOUD
COVER WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES.

THE LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
STORMS DURING MID WEEK WITH A BETTER THREAT LATE WEEK AS FRONT MAKES
ATTEMPT TO PUSH ACROSS REGION BUT MAY GET HUNG UP AND MOVE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

THESE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERAURES MAY PLACE BTV AS THE WARMEST
MAY ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK CONTNIUES TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL HANGING
IN A BIT WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS VT. EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO BKN SAT NGT/SUN MRNG.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEST/NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV.
WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS SLOWLY DIMINSHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15 TO 25%) ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL EXACERBATE THESE
CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START TODAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW/MUCCILLI
FIRE WEATHER...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST BY SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY. A STRONG WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...COOL AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW PULLS
STEADILY AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN SLIDES BODILY SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BLENDED MODEL 925-850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER MODESTLY GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
WITH WINDS TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER TIME
TONIGHT. WITH STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER AND WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF SEASONABLE
LATE MAY VALUES IN MOST SPOTS (40S). THERE COULD BE SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT
AS DEEPENING WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES BEGIN ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY DEEPENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
CONSIDERABLY WITH MOST SPOTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON AND WASH OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME ACROSS NC/NE VT.
NOMINAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOWER-END SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDER PERECENTAGES AROUND 20 PERCENT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA AS WELL, BUT WITH SUCH A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITRE LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

THEN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT TO
MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING BY LATER AT NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER FAR
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST SPOTS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY WHERE
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE EVIDENT. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH SOME OF OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES
LIKELY REMAINING DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH SHARP
WARMING ALOFT AT ODDS WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
AN IDEA CLOSER TO LATEST SREF BIAS-CORRECTED MEANS SHOWING COOLEST
READINGS NORTH AND EAST (L-M 70S) AND WARMER SOUTH AND WEST (UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S) WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY AS NORTHERN STREAM ATTEMPTS TO BRING A
FRONT INTO/ACROSS AREA MID/LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS TO HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION IS BORROWED FROM DAYSHIFT AS THINKING IS
GENERALLY THE SAME...NO WIDESCALE WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED YET CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEK WILL
BRING ABOUT ADEQUATE CHANCES OF EATING INTO OUR PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS.

WARM FRONT MON NGT WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE WITH GREATEST ACROSS NRN NY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL ESTABLISHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE
BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC CONDITIONS BUT CLOUD
COVER WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES.

THE LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
STORMS DURING MID WEEK WITH A BETTER THREAT LATE WEEK AS FRONT MAKES
ATTEMPT TO PUSH ACROSS REGION BUT MAY GET HUNG UP AND MOVE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

THESE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERAURES MAY PLACE BTV AS THE WARMEST
MAY ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK CONTNIUES TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL HANGING
IN A BIT WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS VT. EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO BKN SAT NGT/SUN MRNG.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEST/NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV.
WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS SLOWLY DIMINSHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15 TO 25%) ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL EXACERBATE THESE
CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START TODAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW/MUCCILLI
FIRE WEATHER...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST BY SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY. A STRONG WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...COOL AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW PULLS
STEADILY AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN SLIDES BODILY SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BLENDED MODEL 925-850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER MODESTLY GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
WITH WINDS TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER TIME
TONIGHT. WITH STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER AND WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF SEASONABLE
LATE MAY VALUES IN MOST SPOTS (40S). THERE COULD BE SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT
AS DEEPENING WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES BEGIN ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY DEEPENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
CONSIDERABLY WITH MOST SPOTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON AND WASH OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME ACROSS NC/NE VT.
NOMINAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOWER-END SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDER PERECENTAGES AROUND 20 PERCENT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA AS WELL, BUT WITH SUCH A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITRE LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

THEN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT TO
MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING BY LATER AT NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER FAR
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST SPOTS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY WHERE
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE EVIDENT. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH SOME OF OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES
LIKELY REMAINING DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH SHARP
WARMING ALOFT AT ODDS WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
AN IDEA CLOSER TO LATEST SREF BIAS-CORRECTED MEANS SHOWING COOLEST
READINGS NORTH AND EAST (L-M 70S) AND WARMER SOUTH AND WEST (UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S) WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY AS NORTHERN STREAM ATTEMPTS TO BRING A
FRONT INTO/ACROSS AREA MID/LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS TO HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION IS BORROWED FROM DAYSHIFT AS THINKING IS
GENERALLY THE SAME...NO WIDESCALE WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED YET CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEK WILL
BRING ABOUT ADEQUATE CHANCES OF EATING INTO OUR PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS.

WARM FRONT MON NGT WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE WITH GREATEST ACROSS NRN NY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL ESTABLISHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE
BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC CONDITIONS BUT CLOUD
COVER WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES.

THE LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
STORMS DURING MID WEEK WITH A BETTER THREAT LATE WEEK AS FRONT MAKES
ATTEMPT TO PUSH ACROSS REGION BUT MAY GET HUNG UP AND MOVE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

THESE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERAURES MAY PLACE BTV AS THE WARMEST
MAY ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK CONTNIUES TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL HANGING
IN A BIT WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS VT. EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO BKN SAT NGT/SUN MRNG.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEST/NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV.
WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS SLOWLY DIMINSHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15 TO 25%) ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL EXACERBATE THESE
CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START TODAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW/MUCCILLI
FIRE WEATHER...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT FRIDAY...ISOLATED LATE RAIN SHOWERS (AND HIGHER
SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS) CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL VT AT
0215Z...AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STRONG LOW- LEVEL CAA CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS IN PLACE...BUT TEMPS ALREADY FALLING INTO THE MID-UPR 30S
ALONG THE INTL BORDER (36F AT NEWPORT VT AT 02Z). AS SUCH...FREEZE
WARNINGS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AREA ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WITH MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MIXING). FROST
MAY ACTUALLY BE MITIGATED A BIT BY CONTINUED MODERATE WINDS...BUT
MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FORMATION WITH
LOWS 33-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALREADY
DOWN TO -6C ALONG THE INTL BORDER PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...AND
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND -7 TO -8C DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY NIGHT FOR LATE MAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A STRONG MODERATING TREND BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK CONTNIUES TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL HANGING
IN A BIT WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS VT. EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO BKN SAT NGT/SUN MRNG.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEST/NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV.
WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS SLOWLY DIMINSHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT FRIDAY...ISOLATED LATE RAIN SHOWERS (AND HIGHER
SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS) CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL VT AT
0215Z...AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STRONG LOW- LEVEL CAA CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS IN PLACE...BUT TEMPS ALREADY FALLING INTO THE MID-UPR 30S
ALONG THE INTL BORDER (36F AT NEWPORT VT AT 02Z). AS SUCH...FREEZE
WARNINGS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AREA ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WITH MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MIXING). FROST
MAY ACTUALLY BE MITIGATED A BIT BY CONTINUED MODERATE WINDS...BUT
MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FORMATION WITH
LOWS 33-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALREADY
DOWN TO -6C ALONG THE INTL BORDER PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...AND
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND -7 TO -8C DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY NIGHT FOR LATE MAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A STRONG MODERATING TREND BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK CONTNIUES TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL HANGING
IN A BIT WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS VT. EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO BKN SAT NGT/SUN MRNG.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEST/NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV.
WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS SLOWLY DIMINSHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230240
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT FRIDAY...ISOLATED LATE RAIN SHOWERS (AND HIGHER
SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS) CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL VT AT
0215Z...AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STRONG LOW- LEVEL CAA CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS IN PLACE...BUT TEMPS ALREADY FALLING INTO THE MID-UPR 30S
ALONG THE INTL BORDER (36F AT NEWPORT VT AT 02Z). AS SUCH...FREEZE
WARNINGS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AREA ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WITH MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MIXING). FROST
MAY ACTUALLY BE MITIGATED A BIT BY CONTINUED MODERATE WINDS...BUT
MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FORMATION WITH
LOWS 33-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALREADY
DOWN TO -6C ALONG THE INTL BORDER PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...AND
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND -7 TO -8C DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY NIGHT FOR LATE MAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A STRONG MODERATING TREND BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-12 KNOTS THIS EVENING SLACKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV. WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
     010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230240
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT FRIDAY...ISOLATED LATE RAIN SHOWERS (AND HIGHER
SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS) CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL VT AT
0215Z...AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STRONG LOW- LEVEL CAA CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS IN PLACE...BUT TEMPS ALREADY FALLING INTO THE MID-UPR 30S
ALONG THE INTL BORDER (36F AT NEWPORT VT AT 02Z). AS SUCH...FREEZE
WARNINGS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AREA ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WITH MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MIXING). FROST
MAY ACTUALLY BE MITIGATED A BIT BY CONTINUED MODERATE WINDS...BUT
MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FORMATION WITH
LOWS 33-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALREADY
DOWN TO -6C ALONG THE INTL BORDER PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...AND
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND -7 TO -8C DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY NIGHT FOR LATE MAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A STRONG MODERATING TREND BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-12 KNOTS THIS EVENING SLACKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV. WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
     010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN (HIGH SUMMIT SNOW) SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
ESEWD INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS ACROSS ESSEX NY/ADDISON VT COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
EWD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND STILL ANTICIPATE
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA UNDER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C AND 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C TO -33C AT 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-12 KNOTS THIS EVENING SLACKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV. WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN (HIGH SUMMIT SNOW) SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
ESEWD INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS ACROSS ESSEX NY/ADDISON VT COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
EWD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND STILL ANTICIPATE
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA UNDER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C AND 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C TO -33C AT 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-12 KNOTS THIS EVENING SLACKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV. WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN (HIGH SUMMIT SNOW) SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
ESEWD INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS ACROSS ESSEX NY/ADDISON VT COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
EWD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND STILL ANTICIPATE
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA UNDER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C AND 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C TO -33C AT 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-12 KNOTS THIS EVENING SLACKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV. WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN (HIGH SUMMIT SNOW) SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
ESEWD INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS ACROSS ESSEX NY/ADDISON VT COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
EWD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND STILL ANTICIPATE
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA UNDER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C AND 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C TO -33C AT 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-12 KNOTS THIS EVENING SLACKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV. WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222258
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
658 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN (HIGH SUMMIT SNOW) SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
ESEWD INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS ACROSS ESSEX NY/ADDISON VT COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
EWD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND STILL ANTICIPATE
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA UNDER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C AND 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C TO -33C AT 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222258
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
658 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN (HIGH SUMMIT SNOW) SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
ESEWD INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS ACROSS ESSEX NY/ADDISON VT COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
EWD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND STILL ANTICIPATE
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA UNDER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C AND 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C TO -33C AT 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK
RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HAVE PUT IN A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS EVENING. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD SO NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING ANY SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PASSES JUST EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
-6C TO -8C AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C TO -33C AT 06Z
SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AREAS OF FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND FROM
MONTPELIER TO NEIGHBORED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK
RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HAVE PUT IN A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS EVENING. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD SO NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING ANY SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PASSES JUST EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
-6C TO -8C AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C TO -33C AT 06Z
SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AREAS OF FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND FROM
MONTPELIER TO NEIGHBORED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND FROM
MONTPELIER TO NEIGHBORED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND FROM
MONTPELIER TO NEIGHBORED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND FROM
MONTPELIER TO NEIGHBORED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND FROM
MONTPELIER TO NEIGHBORED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221909
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
309 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND FROM
MONTPELIER TO NEIGHBORED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221909
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
309 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND FROM
MONTPELIER TO NEIGHBORED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221830
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND FROM
MONTPELIER TO NEIGHBORED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221830
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND FROM
MONTPELIER TO NEIGHBORED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1058 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1057 AM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO JUST
SPEED THINGS UP A BIT BY ABOUT 3 HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT RACING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING JUST ABOUT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS,
BUT WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 15 DEGREES OUT THERE ITS A
GOOD BET NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND, SPRINKLES AT BEST. BASED
ON FASTER TIMING OF FRONT HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS, MAINLY WEST OF THE FROPA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1058 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1057 AM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO JUST
SPEED THINGS UP A BIT BY ABOUT 3 HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT RACING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING JUST ABOUT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS,
BUT WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 15 DEGREES OUT THERE ITS A
GOOD BET NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND, SPRINKLES AT BEST. BASED
ON FASTER TIMING OF FRONT HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS, MAINLY WEST OF THE FROPA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO JUST SPEED THINGS UP A
BIT BY ABOUT 3 HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT RACING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING JUST ABOUT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS, BUT WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AROUND 15 DEGREES OUT THERE ITS A GOOD BET NOT MUCH IS
REACHING THE GROUND, SPRINKLES AT BEST. BASED ON FASTER TIMING OF
FRONT HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS,
MAINLY WEST OF THE FROPA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO JUST SPEED THINGS UP A
BIT BY ABOUT 3 HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT RACING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING JUST ABOUT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS, BUT WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AROUND 15 DEGREES OUT THERE ITS A GOOD BET NOT MUCH IS
REACHING THE GROUND, SPRINKLES AT BEST. BASED ON FASTER TIMING OF
FRONT HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS,
MAINLY WEST OF THE FROPA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO JUST SPEED THINGS UP A
BIT BY ABOUT 3 HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT RACING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING JUST ABOUT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS, BUT WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AROUND 15 DEGREES OUT THERE ITS A GOOD BET NOT MUCH IS
REACHING THE GROUND, SPRINKLES AT BEST. BASED ON FASTER TIMING OF
FRONT HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS,
MAINLY WEST OF THE FROPA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO JUST SPEED THINGS UP A
BIT BY ABOUT 3 HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT RACING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING JUST ABOUT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS, BUT WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AROUND 15 DEGREES OUT THERE ITS A GOOD BET NOT MUCH IS
REACHING THE GROUND, SPRINKLES AT BEST. BASED ON FASTER TIMING OF
FRONT HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS,
MAINLY WEST OF THE FROPA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220235
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220235
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 212337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 212337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211435
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211435
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211435
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211435
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP FROST ADVISORIES,
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP FROST ADVISORIES,
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP FROST ADVISORIES,
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP FROST ADVISORIES,
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211107
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 211107
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 210816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 210816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR
IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 210527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR
IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 210527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR
IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR
IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
     010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR
IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
     010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000
FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP
IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST
BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000
FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP
IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST
BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000
FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP
IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST
BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000
FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP
IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST
BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000
FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP
IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST
BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000
FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP
IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST
BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
158 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
158 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN
TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND
3-6KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN
TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND
3-6KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN
TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND
3-6KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN
TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND
3-6KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201444
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... MOST OF THE LIGHT RADAR ECHOS HAVE
GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MID MORNING. EXPECT WE
SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY
OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE WINDS. MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. I WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE BEING REPORTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...EXTENSIVE REGION OF
CLOUDS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING. EVEN GETTING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK AND VERMONT AND THUS
HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PERSISTS TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND CONTINUES AND
WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE POINT
WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF
OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN
TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND
3-6KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201444
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... MOST OF THE LIGHT RADAR ECHOS HAVE
GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MID MORNING. EXPECT WE
SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY
OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE WINDS. MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. I WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE BEING REPORTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...EXTENSIVE REGION OF
CLOUDS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING. EVEN GETTING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK AND VERMONT AND THUS
HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PERSISTS TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND CONTINUES AND
WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE POINT
WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF
OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN
TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND
3-6KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201444
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... MOST OF THE LIGHT RADAR ECHOS HAVE
GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MID MORNING. EXPECT WE
SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY
OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE WINDS. MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. I WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE BEING REPORTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...EXTENSIVE REGION OF
CLOUDS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING. EVEN GETTING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK AND VERMONT AND THUS
HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PERSISTS TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND CONTINUES AND
WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE POINT
WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF
OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN
TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND
3-6KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201444
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... MOST OF THE LIGHT RADAR ECHOS HAVE
GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MID MORNING. EXPECT WE
SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY
OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE WINDS. MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. I WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE BEING REPORTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...EXTENSIVE REGION OF
CLOUDS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING. EVEN GETTING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK AND VERMONT AND THUS
HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PERSISTS TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND CONTINUES AND
WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE POINT
WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF
OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN
TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND
3-6KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LAHIFF





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