Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020834
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED
FOR NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z AT KMSS/KSLK/KMSS
TERMINALS, BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, TRENDING
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KGM/MV/WASULA
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020834
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED
FOR NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z AT KMSS/KSLK/KMSS
TERMINALS, BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, TRENDING
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KGM/MV/WASULA
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT/ERN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN
DACKS. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO
L50S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z AT KMSS/KSLK/KMSS
TERMINALS, BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, TRENDING
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT/ERN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN
DACKS. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO
L50S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z AT KMSS/KSLK/KMSS
TERMINALS, BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, TRENDING
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS. THE
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO L50S WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS. THE
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO L50S WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS. THE
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO L50S WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS. THE
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO L50S WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
839 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
FROM SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NY...WITH REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL (HAIL
REPORT FROM MADRID NY). ALSO ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NWRN VT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
06Z...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
839 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
FROM SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NY...WITH REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL (HAIL
REPORT FROM MADRID NY). ALSO ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NWRN VT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
06Z...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
839 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
FROM SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NY...WITH REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL (HAIL
REPORT FROM MADRID NY). ALSO ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NWRN VT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
06Z...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
839 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
FROM SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NY...WITH REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL (HAIL
REPORT FROM MADRID NY). ALSO ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NWRN VT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
06Z...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012344
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTAINED SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND LIKELY SOME
SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER WITH STORMS
DECREASING/EXITING VERMONT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ANTICIPATED. AS
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
LATER ON THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012344
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTAINED SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND LIKELY SOME
SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER WITH STORMS
DECREASING/EXITING VERMONT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ANTICIPATED. AS
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
LATER ON THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTAINED SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND LIKELY SOME
SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER WITH STORMS
DECREASING/EXITING VERMONT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ANTICIPATED. AS
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
LATER ON THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV. FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FEW-SCT 040-080 WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO DECREASING CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTAINED SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND LIKELY SOME
SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER WITH STORMS
DECREASING/EXITING VERMONT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ANTICIPATED. AS
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
LATER ON THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV. FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FEW-SCT 040-080 WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO DECREASING CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 800 TO 1600 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC-06KM SHEAR
VALUES WERE HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT RECENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV. FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FEW-SCT 040-080 WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO DECREASING CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 800 TO 1600 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC-06KM SHEAR
VALUES WERE HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT RECENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV. FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FEW-SCT 040-080 WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO DECREASING CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011738
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 800 TO 1600 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC-06KM SHEAR
VALUES WERE HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT RECENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLY
SLIGHTTO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
GENERALLY THROUGH THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST
NORMS. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV. FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FEW-SCT 040-080 WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO DECREASING CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011738
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 800 TO 1600 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC-06KM SHEAR
VALUES WERE HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT RECENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLY
SLIGHTTO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
GENERALLY THROUGH THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST
NORMS. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV. FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FEW-SCT 040-080 WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO DECREASING CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011657
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 800 TO 1600 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC-06KM SHEAR
VALUES WERE HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT RECENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011657
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 800 TO 1600 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC-06KM SHEAR
VALUES WERE HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT RECENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011453
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NORTHEAST VERMONT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASING QUICKLY
WITH ANYWHERE FROM 700 TO 1500 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
SFC-06KM SHEAR VALUES HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT THEY ARE IN PROCESS OF
DECREASING...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH GREATEST CHANCES
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ
LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH
THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY
WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011453
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NORTHEAST VERMONT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASING QUICKLY
WITH ANYWHERE FROM 700 TO 1500 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
SFC-06KM SHEAR VALUES HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT THEY ARE IN PROCESS OF
DECREASING...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH GREATEST CHANCES
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ
LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH
THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY
WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING
WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY WANING.
STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING
WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY WANING.
STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING
WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY WANING.
STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING
WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY WANING.
STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TUG HILL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
THROUGH SUNRISE, AND NORTHEAST VERMONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT
THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY
DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE
INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD
EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TUG HILL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
THROUGH SUNRISE, AND NORTHEAST VERMONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT
THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY
DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE
INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD
EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TUG HILL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
THROUGH SUNRISE, AND NORTHEAST VERMONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT
THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY
DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE
INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD
EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TUG HILL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
THROUGH SUNRISE, AND NORTHEAST VERMONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT
THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY
DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE
INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD
EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010751
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TUG HILL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
THROUGH SUNRISE, AND NORTHEAST VERMONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT
THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY
DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE
INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD
EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010710
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENEARLLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
GENERALLY THROUGH THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST
NORMS. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010710
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENEARLLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
GENERALLY THROUGH THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST
NORMS. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010216
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1016 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER NIGHT AND SCT-BKN SKIES ABOVE 050 AFTER 08Z.
WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20
KNOTS. AFTER 05Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK WITH FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK/KMPV AROUND 06Z-10Z.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT040-060 AND VICINITY SHOWERS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010216
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1016 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER NIGHT AND SCT-BKN SKIES ABOVE 050 AFTER 08Z.
WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20
KNOTS. AFTER 05Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK WITH FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK/KMPV AROUND 06Z-10Z.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT040-060 AND VICINITY SHOWERS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010102
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
902 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER NIGHT AND SCT-BKN SKIES ABOVE 050 AFTER 08Z.
WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20
KNOTS. AFTER 05Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK WITH FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK/KMPV AROUND 06Z-10Z.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT040-060 AND VICINITY SHOWERS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010102
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
902 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER NIGHT AND SCT-BKN SKIES ABOVE 050 AFTER 08Z.
WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20
KNOTS. AFTER 05Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK WITH FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK/KMPV AROUND 06Z-10Z.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT040-060 AND VICINITY SHOWERS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010102
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
902 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER NIGHT AND SCT-BKN SKIES ABOVE 050 AFTER 08Z.
WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20
KNOTS. AFTER 05Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK WITH FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK/KMPV AROUND 06Z-10Z.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT040-060 AND VICINITY SHOWERS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A DAY WHICH FEATURED A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED...HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF
THUNDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A DAY WHICH FEATURED A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED...HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF
THUNDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A DAY WHICH FEATURED A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED...HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF
THUNDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A DAY WHICH FEATURED A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED...HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF
THUNDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311857
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PICS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS. OTHERWISE A
DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311857
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PICS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS. OTHERWISE A
DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311857
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PICS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS. OTHERWISE A
DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311857
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PICS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS. OTHERWISE A
DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PICS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS. OTHERWISE A
DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PICS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS. OTHERWISE A
DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PICS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS. OTHERWISE A
DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PICS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS. OTHERWISE A
DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 12-00Z THEN
LIGHT. AFTER 00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT
KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PICS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS. OTHERWISE A
DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 12-00Z THEN
LIGHT. AFTER 00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT
KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PICS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS. OTHERWISE A
DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 12-00Z THEN
LIGHT. AFTER 00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT
KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PICS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS. OTHERWISE A
DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 12-00Z THEN
LIGHT. AFTER 00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT
KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311508
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1108 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS EVIDENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXPECT SKIES TO AVERAGE OUT PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TO OUR
NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, A DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY
IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS
COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 12-00Z THEN
LIGHT. AFTER 00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT
KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
708 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 643 AM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, A DRY AND
PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S AND DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 12-00Z THEN
LIGHT. AFTER 00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT
KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
708 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 643 AM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, A DRY AND
PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S AND DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 12-00Z THEN
LIGHT. AFTER 00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT
KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
708 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 643 AM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, A DRY AND
PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S AND DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 12-00Z THEN
LIGHT. AFTER 00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT
KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
708 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 643 AM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, A DRY AND
PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S AND DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 12-00Z THEN
LIGHT. AFTER 00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT
KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311044
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
644 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 643 AM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, A DRY AND
PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S AND DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311044
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
644 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 643 AM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, A DRY AND
PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S AND DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING, DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR AS NOTED ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL SKIM THE INTL BORDER AROUND MID-DAY AND MAY PROVIDE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS, BUT
OTHERWISE A DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS
COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
     PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING, DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR AS NOTED ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL SKIM THE INTL BORDER AROUND MID-DAY AND MAY PROVIDE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS, BUT
OTHERWISE A DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS
COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
     PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING, DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR AS NOTED ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL SKIM THE INTL BORDER AROUND MID-DAY AND MAY PROVIDE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS, BUT
OTHERWISE A DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS
COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
     PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING, DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR AS NOTED ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL SKIM THE INTL BORDER AROUND MID-DAY AND MAY PROVIDE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS, BUT
OTHERWISE A DRY AND PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS
COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
     PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
HAVE EXITED WELL EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A DRYING WSW-W FLOW IN PLACE. 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. DESPITE SOME LOW-LEVEL
DRYING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...RIVER VALLEYS
THAT SAW RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
HAVE EXITED WELL EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A DRYING WSW-W FLOW IN PLACE. 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. DESPITE SOME LOW-LEVEL
DRYING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...RIVER VALLEYS
THAT SAW RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
HAVE EXITED WELL EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A DRYING WSW-W FLOW IN PLACE. 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. DESPITE SOME LOW-LEVEL
DRYING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...RIVER VALLEYS
THAT SAW RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION
PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
HAVE EXITED WELL EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A DRYING WSW-W FLOW IN PLACE. 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. DESPITE SOME LOW-LEVEL
DRYING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...RIVER VALLEYS
THAT SAW RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION
PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310232
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
HAVE EXITED WELL EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A DRYING WSW-W FLOW IN PLACE. 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. DESPITE SOME LOW-LEVEL
DRYING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...RIVER VALLEYS
THAT SAW RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING MVFR/IFR BR/FOG DEVELOPING AT BOTH SLK AND MPV. AS
THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY
REPORTING VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
QUITE BULLISH ON FOG AT BOTH SITES BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH
RAINFALL AND WINDS AT 900MB AROUND 20KTS EXPECT THE OVERALL THREAT
OF FOG TO BE LIMITED AT SLK. AT MPV EXPECT A DIFFERENT STORY AS
THE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH NEARLY AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TODAY EXPECT THAT MPV WILL SEE IFR FOG WITH LIFR POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT MPV TO START TO GO DOWN BY 06Z AND TO DETERIORATE
QUICKLY BY 07Z TO IFR CONDITIONS. TOMORROW BY DAY BREAK THE WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH MODERATE 7-10KT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SAT:
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310232
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
HAVE EXITED WELL EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A DRYING WSW-W FLOW IN PLACE. 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. DESPITE SOME LOW-LEVEL
DRYING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...RIVER VALLEYS
THAT SAW RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING MVFR/IFR BR/FOG DEVELOPING AT BOTH SLK AND MPV. AS
THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY
REPORTING VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
QUITE BULLISH ON FOG AT BOTH SITES BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH
RAINFALL AND WINDS AT 900MB AROUND 20KTS EXPECT THE OVERALL THREAT
OF FOG TO BE LIMITED AT SLK. AT MPV EXPECT A DIFFERENT STORY AS
THE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH NEARLY AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TODAY EXPECT THAT MPV WILL SEE IFR FOG WITH LIFR POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT MPV TO START TO GO DOWN BY 06Z AND TO DETERIORATE
QUICKLY BY 07Z TO IFR CONDITIONS. TOMORROW BY DAY BREAK THE WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH MODERATE 7-10KT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SAT:
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
816 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 808 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
HAVE EXITED EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A DRYING WSW-W FLOW IN PLACE. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. DESPITE SOME LOW-LEVEL
DRYING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...RIVER VALLEYS
THAT SAW RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS ACCORDINGLY. LOW TEMPS FROM THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING MVFR/IFR BR/FOG DEVELOPING AT BOTH SLK AND MPV. AS
THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY
REPORTING VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
QUITE BULLISH ON FOG AT BOTH SITES BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH
RAINFALL AND WINDS AT 900MB AROUND 20KTS EXPECT THE OVERALL THREAT
OF FOG TO BE LIMITED AT SLK. AT MPV EXPECT A DIFFERENT STORY AS
THE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH NEARLY AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TODAY EXPECT THAT MPV WILL SEE IFR FOG WITH LIFR POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT MPV TO START TO GO DOWN BY 06Z AND TO DETERIORATE
QUICKLY BY 07Z TO IFR CONDITIONS. TOMORROW BY DAY BREAK THE WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH MODERATE 7-10KT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SAT:
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
816 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 808 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
HAVE EXITED EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A DRYING WSW-W FLOW IN PLACE. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. DESPITE SOME LOW-LEVEL
DRYING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...RIVER VALLEYS
THAT SAW RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS ACCORDINGLY. LOW TEMPS FROM THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING MVFR/IFR BR/FOG DEVELOPING AT BOTH SLK AND MPV. AS
THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY
REPORTING VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
QUITE BULLISH ON FOG AT BOTH SITES BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH
RAINFALL AND WINDS AT 900MB AROUND 20KTS EXPECT THE OVERALL THREAT
OF FOG TO BE LIMITED AT SLK. AT MPV EXPECT A DIFFERENT STORY AS
THE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH NEARLY AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TODAY EXPECT THAT MPV WILL SEE IFR FOG WITH LIFR POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT MPV TO START TO GO DOWN BY 06Z AND TO DETERIORATE
QUICKLY BY 07Z TO IFR CONDITIONS. TOMORROW BY DAY BREAK THE WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH MODERATE 7-10KT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SAT:
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL QUICKLY EXIT VERMONT BY THIS EVENING. MIDDAY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PREVENTED STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z HOWEVER AND
IF ONE CAN GET GOING, 0-6KM SHEAR IS 30+ KTS SO THERE IS STILL A
CONDITIONAL ISOLATED THREAT ACROSS VT. OTHERWISE WINDS TURNING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, SO LOOKS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. STILL A DECENT SHORT WAVE
TROF TO COME THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH 500 TEMPS COOLING BUT COLUMN
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. FOG FORECAST A BIT
TRICKY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND GRADIENT WINDS MUCH OF
THEN NIGHT, LEFT OUT FOR NOW. LOOK FOR A PLEASANT EVENING WITH LOW
TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING MVFR/IFR BR/FOG DEVELOPING AT BOTH SLK AND MPV. AS
THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY
REPORTING VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
QUITE BULLISH ON FOG AT BOTH SITES BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH
RAINFALL AND WINDS AT 900MB AROUND 20KTS EXPECT THE OVERALL THREAT
OF FOG TO BE LIMITED AT SLK. AT MPV EXPECT A DIFFERENT STORY AS
THE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH NEARLY AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TODAY EXPECT THAT MPV WILL SEE IFR FOG WITH LIFR POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT MPV TO START TO GO DOWN BY 06Z AND TO DETERIORATE
QUICKLY BY 07Z TO IFR CONDITIONS. TOMORROW BY DAY BREAK THE WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH MODERATE 7-10KT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SAT:
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL QUICKLY EXIT VERMONT BY THIS EVENING. MIDDAY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PREVENTED STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z HOWEVER AND
IF ONE CAN GET GOING, 0-6KM SHEAR IS 30+ KTS SO THERE IS STILL A
CONDITIONAL ISOLATED THREAT ACROSS VT. OTHERWISE WINDS TURNING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, SO LOOKS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. STILL A DECENT SHORT WAVE
TROF TO COME THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH 500 TEMPS COOLING BUT COLUMN
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. FOG FORECAST A BIT
TRICKY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND GRADIENT WINDS MUCH OF
THEN NIGHT, LEFT OUT FOR NOW. LOOK FOR A PLEASANT EVENING WITH LOW
TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING MVFR/IFR BR/FOG DEVELOPING AT BOTH SLK AND MPV. AS
THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY
REPORTING VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
QUITE BULLISH ON FOG AT BOTH SITES BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH
RAINFALL AND WINDS AT 900MB AROUND 20KTS EXPECT THE OVERALL THREAT
OF FOG TO BE LIMITED AT SLK. AT MPV EXPECT A DIFFERENT STORY AS
THE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH NEARLY AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TODAY EXPECT THAT MPV WILL SEE IFR FOG WITH LIFR POSSIBLE
AS WELL. EXPECT MPV TO START TO GO DOWN BY 06Z AND TO DETERIORATE
QUICKLY BY 07Z TO IFR CONDITIONS. TOMORROW BY DAY BREAK THE WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH MODERATE 7-10KT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SAT:
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 302002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL QUICKLY EXIT VERMONT BY THIS EVENING. MIDDAY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PREVENTED STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z HOWEVER AND
IF ONE CAN GET GOING, 0-6KM SHEAR IS 30+ KTS SO THERE IS STILL A
CONDITIONAL ISOLATED THREAT ACROSS VT. OTHERWISE WINDS TURNING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, SO LOOKS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. STILL A DECENT SHORT WAVE
TROF TO COME THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH 500 TEMPS COOLING BUT COLUMN
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. FOG FORECAST A BIT
TRICKY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND GRADIENT WINDS MUCH OF
THEN NIGHT, LEFT OUT FOR NOW. LOOK FOR A PLEASANT EVENING WITH LOW
TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.


SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL QUICKLY EXIT VERMONT BY THIS EVENING. MIDDAY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PREVENTED STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z HOWEVER AND
IF ONE CAN GET GOING, 0-6KM SHEAR IS 30+ KTS SO THERE IS STILL A
CONDITIONAL ISOLATED THREAT ACROSS VT. OTHERWISE WINDS TURNING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, SO LOOKS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. STILL A DECENT SHORT WAVE
TROF TO COME THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH 500 TEMPS COOLING BUT COLUMN
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. FOG FORECAST A BIT
TRICKY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND GRADIENT WINDS MUCH OF
THEN NIGHT, LEFT OUT FOR NOW. LOOK FOR A PLEASANT EVENING WITH LOW
TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.


SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 302002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL QUICKLY EXIT VERMONT BY THIS EVENING. MIDDAY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PREVENTED STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z HOWEVER AND
IF ONE CAN GET GOING, 0-6KM SHEAR IS 30+ KTS SO THERE IS STILL A
CONDITIONAL ISOLATED THREAT ACROSS VT. OTHERWISE WINDS TURNING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, SO LOOKS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. STILL A DECENT SHORT WAVE
TROF TO COME THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH 500 TEMPS COOLING BUT COLUMN
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. FOG FORECAST A BIT
TRICKY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND GRADIENT WINDS MUCH OF
THEN NIGHT, LEFT OUT FOR NOW. LOOK FOR A PLEASANT EVENING WITH LOW
TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.


SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL QUICKLY EXIT VERMONT BY THIS EVENING. MIDDAY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PREVENTED STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z HOWEVER AND
IF ONE CAN GET GOING, 0-6KM SHEAR IS 30+ KTS SO THERE IS STILL A
CONDITIONAL ISOLATED THREAT ACROSS VT. OTHERWISE WINDS TURNING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, SO LOOKS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. STILL A DECENT SHORT WAVE
TROF TO COME THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH 500 TEMPS COOLING BUT COLUMN
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. FOG FORECAST A BIT
TRICKY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND GRADIENT WINDS MUCH OF
THEN NIGHT, LEFT OUT FOR NOW. LOOK FOR A PLEASANT EVENING WITH LOW
TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.


SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL QUICKLY EXIT VERMONT BY THIS EVENING. MIDDAY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PREVENTED STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z HOWEVER AND
IF ONE CAN GET GOING, 0-6KM SHEAR IS 30+ KTS SO THERE IS STILL A
CONDITIONAL ISOLATED THREAT ACROSS VT. OTHERWISE WINDS TURNING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, SO LOOKS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. STILL A DECENT SHORT WAVE
TROF TO COME THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH 500 TEMPS COOLING BUT COLUMN
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. FOG FORECAST A BIT
TRICKY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND GRADIENT WINDS MUCH OF
THEN NIGHT, LEFT OUT FOR NOW. LOOK FOR A PLEASANT EVENING WITH LOW
TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.


SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL QUICKLY EXIT VERMONT BY THIS EVENING. MIDDAY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PREVENTED STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z HOWEVER AND
IF ONE CAN GET GOING, 0-6KM SHEAR IS 30+ KTS SO THERE IS STILL A
CONDITIONAL ISOLATED THREAT ACROSS VT. OTHERWISE WINDS TURNING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, SO LOOKS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. STILL A DECENT SHORT WAVE
TROF TO COME THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH 500 TEMPS COOLING BUT COLUMN
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. FOG FORECAST A BIT
TRICKY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND GRADIENT WINDS MUCH OF
THEN NIGHT, LEFT OUT FOR NOW. LOOK FOR A PLEASANT EVENING WITH LOW
TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.


SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL QUICKLY EXIT VERMONT BY THIS EVENING. MIDDAY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PREVENTED STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z HOWEVER AND
IF ONE CAN GET GOING, 0-6KM SHEAR IS 30+ KTS SO THERE IS STILL A
CONDITIONAL ISOLATED THREAT ACROSS VT. OTHERWISE WINDS TURNING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, SO LOOKS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. STILL A DECENT SHORT WAVE
TROF TO COME THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH 500 TEMPS COOLING BUT COLUMN
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. FOG FORECAST A BIT
TRICKY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND GRADIENT WINDS MUCH OF
THEN NIGHT, LEFT OUT FOR NOW. LOOK FOR A PLEASANT EVENING WITH LOW
TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.


SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
221 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 141 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAK TO GOING FORECAST.
TIMING OF FRONT LOOKS GOOD AS ITS ON TOP OF KMSS AT 1 PM. A COUPLE
OF CELLS NOW INCREASING IN INTENSITY IN THE GENERAL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW CROSSING INTO VT.

THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH WILL THE SHOWERS PUT THE
DAMPER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. STILL CARRYING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW WILL THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SEEING 1000 J/KG MU/SBCAPE ON LAPS WITH SFC TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND 70-74 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSHING UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. DEW POINTS NOW
DROPPING AT CYOW AND KOGS SO THAT AREA IS DONE. LOOKING FOR THE
FRONT NEAR BTV AROUND 20-21Z AND ALONG WITH INCREASING 30+ KT
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONALLY CORFIDI VECTORS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL
JET PARALLEL TO THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER, SO HEAVY RAINS STILL
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS DESPITE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
221 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 141 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAK TO GOING FORECAST.
TIMING OF FRONT LOOKS GOOD AS ITS ON TOP OF KMSS AT 1 PM. A COUPLE
OF CELLS NOW INCREASING IN INTENSITY IN THE GENERAL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW CROSSING INTO VT.

THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH WILL THE SHOWERS PUT THE
DAMPER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. STILL CARRYING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW WILL THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SEEING 1000 J/KG MU/SBCAPE ON LAPS WITH SFC TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND 70-74 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSHING UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. DEW POINTS NOW
DROPPING AT CYOW AND KOGS SO THAT AREA IS DONE. LOOKING FOR THE
FRONT NEAR BTV AROUND 20-21Z AND ALONG WITH INCREASING 30+ KT
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONALLY CORFIDI VECTORS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL
JET PARALLEL TO THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER, SO HEAVY RAINS STILL
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS DESPITE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 141 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAK TO GOING FORECAST.
TIMING OF FRONT LOOKS GOOD AS ITS ON TOP OF KMSS AT 1 PM. A COUPLE
OF CELLS NOW INCREASING IN INTENSITY IN THE GENERAL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW CROSSING INTO VT.

THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH WILL THE SHOWERS PUT THE
DAMPER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. STILL CARRYING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW WILL THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SEEING 1000 J/KG MU/SBCAPE ON LAPS WITH SFC TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND 70-74 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSHING UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. DEW POINTS NOW
DROPPING AT CYOW AND KOGS SO THAT AREA IS DONE. LOOKING FOR THE
FRONT NEAR BTV AROUND 20-21Z AND ALONG WITH INCREASING 30+ KT
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONALLY CORFIDI VECTORS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL
JET PARALLEL TO THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER, SO HEAVY RAINS STILL
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS DESPITE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 141 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAK TO GOING FORECAST.
TIMING OF FRONT LOOKS GOOD AS ITS ON TOP OF KMSS AT 1 PM. A COUPLE
OF CELLS NOW INCREASING IN INTENSITY IN THE GENERAL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW CROSSING INTO VT.

THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH WILL THE SHOWERS PUT THE
DAMPER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. STILL CARRYING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW WILL THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SEEING 1000 J/KG MU/SBCAPE ON LAPS WITH SFC TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND 70-74 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSHING UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. DEW POINTS NOW
DROPPING AT CYOW AND KOGS SO THAT AREA IS DONE. LOOKING FOR THE
FRONT NEAR BTV AROUND 20-21Z AND ALONG WITH INCREASING 30+ KT
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONALLY CORFIDI VECTORS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL
JET PARALLEL TO THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER, SO HEAVY RAINS STILL
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS DESPITE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 141 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAK TO GOING FORECAST.
TIMING OF FRONT LOOKS GOOD AS ITS ON TOP OF KMSS AT 1 PM. A COUPLE
OF CELLS NOW INCREASING IN INTENSITY IN THE GENERAL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW CROSSING INTO VT.

THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH WILL THE SHOWERS PUT THE
DAMPER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. STILL CARRYING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW WILL THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SEEING 1000 J/KG MU/SBCAPE ON LAPS WITH SFC TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND 70-74 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSHING UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. DEW POINTS NOW
DROPPING AT CYOW AND KOGS SO THAT AREA IS DONE. LOOKING FOR THE
FRONT NEAR BTV AROUND 20-21Z AND ALONG WITH INCREASING 30+ KT
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONALLY CORFIDI VECTORS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL
JET PARALLEL TO THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER, SO HEAVY RAINS STILL
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS DESPITE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TEMP
TRENDS (A TAD COOLER BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER), OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH WILL THE
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NY PUT THE DAMPER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS AFTEROON. STILL CARRYING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW WILL
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEEING ONLY 500 J/KG MUCAPE RIGHT
FROM THE 12Z ALY AND BUF SOUNDINGS BUT GETTING UP TO 1500 J/KG
MU/SBCAPE FROM CWMW MODIFIED FOR SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. STILL SEEING 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSHING UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS FAR WEST AT CYOW, SO
IT`S POSSIBLE TO SEE THE NAM`S 1000+ J/KG CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NEAR BTV AROUND 20-21Z AND ALONG WITH 30+ KT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY
CORFIDI VECTORS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL JET PARALLEL
TO THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER, SO HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS DESPITE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TEMP
TRENDS (A TAD COOLER BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER), OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH WILL THE
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NY PUT THE DAMPER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS AFTEROON. STILL CARRYING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW WILL
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEEING ONLY 500 J/KG MUCAPE RIGHT
FROM THE 12Z ALY AND BUF SOUNDINGS BUT GETTING UP TO 1500 J/KG
MU/SBCAPE FROM CWMW MODIFIED FOR SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. STILL SEEING 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSHING UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS FAR WEST AT CYOW, SO
IT`S POSSIBLE TO SEE THE NAM`S 1000+ J/KG CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NEAR BTV AROUND 20-21Z AND ALONG WITH 30+ KT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY
CORFIDI VECTORS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL JET PARALLEL
TO THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER, SO HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS DESPITE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TEMP
TRENDS (A TAD COOLER BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER), OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH WILL THE
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NY PUT THE DAMPER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS AFTEROON. STILL CARRYING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW WILL
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEEING ONLY 500 J/KG MUCAPE RIGHT
FROM THE 12Z ALY AND BUF SOUNDINGS BUT GETTING UP TO 1500 J/KG
MU/SBCAPE FROM CWMW MODIFIED FOR SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. STILL SEEING 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSHING UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS FAR WEST AT CYOW, SO
IT`S POSSIBLE TO SEE THE NAM`S 1000+ J/KG CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NEAR BTV AROUND 20-21Z AND ALONG WITH 30+ KT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY
CORFIDI VECTORS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL JET PARALLEL
TO THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER, SO HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS DESPITE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301501
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1101 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TEMP
TRENDS (A TAD COOLER BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER), OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH WILL THE
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NY PUT THE DAMPER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS AFTEROON. STILL CARRYING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW WILL
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEEING ONLY 500 J/KG MUCAPE RIGHT
FROM THE 12Z ALY AND BUF SOUNDINGS BUT GETTING UP TO 1500 J/KG
MU/SBCAPE FROM CWMW MODIFIED FOR SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. STILL SEEING 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSHING UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS FAR WEST AT CYOW, SO
IT`S POSSIBLE TO SEE THE NAM`S 1000+ J/KG CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NEAR BTV AROUND 20-21Z AND ALONG WITH 30+ KT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY
CORFIDI VECTORS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL JET PARALLEL
TO THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER, SO HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS DESPITE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
13-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY WINDS FROM KPBG/KBTV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS
TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT AFTERWARD. SOME
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER06Z FRIDAY BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301501
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1101 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TEMP
TRENDS (A TAD COOLER BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER), OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH WILL THE
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NY PUT THE DAMPER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS AFTEROON. STILL CARRYING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW WILL
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEEING ONLY 500 J/KG MUCAPE RIGHT
FROM THE 12Z ALY AND BUF SOUNDINGS BUT GETTING UP TO 1500 J/KG
MU/SBCAPE FROM CWMW MODIFIED FOR SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. STILL SEEING 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSHING UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS FAR WEST AT CYOW, SO
IT`S POSSIBLE TO SEE THE NAM`S 1000+ J/KG CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NEAR BTV AROUND 20-21Z AND ALONG WITH 30+ KT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY
CORFIDI VECTORS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL JET PARALLEL
TO THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER, SO HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS DESPITE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
13-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY WINDS FROM KPBG/KBTV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS
TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT AFTERWARD. SOME
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER06Z FRIDAY BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301501
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1101 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TEMP
TRENDS (A TAD COOLER BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER), OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH WILL THE
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NY PUT THE DAMPER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS AFTEROON. STILL CARRYING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW WILL
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEEING ONLY 500 J/KG MUCAPE RIGHT
FROM THE 12Z ALY AND BUF SOUNDINGS BUT GETTING UP TO 1500 J/KG
MU/SBCAPE FROM CWMW MODIFIED FOR SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. STILL SEEING 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS PUSHING UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS FAR WEST AT CYOW, SO
IT`S POSSIBLE TO SEE THE NAM`S 1000+ J/KG CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NEAR BTV AROUND 20-21Z AND ALONG WITH 30+ KT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY
CORFIDI VECTORS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL JET PARALLEL
TO THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER, SO HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS DESPITE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
13-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY WINDS FROM KPBG/KBTV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS
TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT AFTERWARD. SOME
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER06Z FRIDAY BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301116
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
13-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY WINDS FROM KPBG/KBTV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS
TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT AFTERWARD. SOME
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER06Z FRIDAY BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301116
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
13-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY WINDS FROM KPBG/KBTV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS
TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT AFTERWARD. SOME
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER06Z FRIDAY BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301116
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
13-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY WINDS FROM KPBG/KBTV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS
TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT AFTERWARD. SOME
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER06Z FRIDAY BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301116
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
13-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY WINDS FROM KPBG/KBTV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS
TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT AFTERWARD. SOME
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER06Z FRIDAY BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR/BR VISIBILITIES AT
KSLK AND KPBG VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 14-20Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS
MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/WIND FROM
KPBG/KBTV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY
21Z. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM 12Z ONWARD, TRENDING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BY
00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR/BR VISIBILITIES AT
KSLK AND KPBG VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 14-20Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS
MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/WIND FROM
KPBG/KBTV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY
21Z. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM 12Z ONWARD, TRENDING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BY
00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR/BR VISIBILITIES AT
KSLK AND KPBG VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 14-20Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS
MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/WIND FROM
KPBG/KBTV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY
21Z. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM 12Z ONWARD, TRENDING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BY
00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE WHILE
CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EASTERN SHORE. DOESN`T MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU PICK, THEY ALL SHOW JUST ABOUT THE SAME TIMING FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE BTV CWA TODAY. CURRENT ARRIVAL/EXIT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE 13-17Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, 16-20Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 17-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. WITH THIS TIMING IN MIND, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WHERE THE BEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
TAKE PLACE. STILL LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD, WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH A FAIRLY MINIMAL HAIL THREAT DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2", BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TIMING, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT, AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION TO OUR EAST CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN A SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, EXCEPT
SOME 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FIRST PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, BUT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA.
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR/BR VISIBILITIES AT
KSLK AND KPBG VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 14-20Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS
MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/WIND FROM
KPBG/KBTV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY
21Z. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM 12Z ONWARD, TRENDING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BY
00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON RECREATING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO IMPACT THE
LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY OVERTURN VESSELS SO BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities