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000
FXUS61 KBTV 250011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
15Z TUESDAY. THE WINDS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ARE STILL
GUSTING TO 35-45 AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 STILL BLOWING
SOUTH WEST AT 60-70 KTS EXPECT SOME OF THE GUSTS TO BE ABLE TO
CONTINUE MIXING DOWN WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE RAP SHOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS
THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO GUSTS 45-50
KNOTS WILL BE EXPECTED. CONCERNING THE ESTF UPDATE THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM AS GUIDANCE DIDN`T CAPTURE HOW MIXED TODAY WOULD BECOME
AND WAS COOLING THE AREA ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES TO MUCH.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH
BROAD REGION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST
OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
HAVE PROMOTED GOOD MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND
MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
IMPACT IS STRONG SSW WINDS BECOMING SW DURING THIS EVENING WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA THRU
03Z AND REMAINING BRISK/STRONG OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUAL DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY.

GREATEST WINDS IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
15Z TUESDAY. THE WINDS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ARE STILL
GUSTING TO 35-45 AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 STILL BLOWING
SOUTH WEST AT 60-70 KTS EXPECT SOME OF THE GUSTS TO BE ABLE TO
CONTINUE MIXING DOWN WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE RAP SHOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS
THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO GUSTS 45-50
KNOTS WILL BE EXPECTED. CONCERNING THE ESTF UPDATE THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM AS GUIDANCE DIDN`T CAPTURE HOW MIXED TODAY WOULD BECOME
AND WAS COOLING THE AREA ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES TO MUCH.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH
BROAD REGION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST
OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
HAVE PROMOTED GOOD MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND
MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
IMPACT IS STRONG SSW WINDS BECOMING SW DURING THIS EVENING WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA THRU
03Z AND REMAINING BRISK/STRONG OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUAL DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY.

GREATEST WINDS IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
15Z TUESDAY. THE WINDS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ARE STILL
GUSTING TO 35-45 AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 STILL BLOWING
SOUTH WEST AT 60-70 KTS EXPECT SOME OF THE GUSTS TO BE ABLE TO
CONTINUE MIXING DOWN WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE RAP SHOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS
THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO GUSTS 45-50
KNOTS WILL BE EXPECTED. CONCERNING THE ESTF UPDATE THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM AS GUIDANCE DIDN`T CAPTURE HOW MIXED TODAY WOULD BECOME
AND WAS COOLING THE AREA ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES TO MUCH.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH
BROAD REGION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST
OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
HAVE PROMOTED GOOD MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND
MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL/BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
15Z TUESDAY. THE WINDS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ARE STILL
GUSTING TO 35-45 AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 STILL BLOWING
SOUTH WEST AT 60-70 KTS EXPECT SOME OF THE GUSTS TO BE ABLE TO
CONTINUE MIXING DOWN WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE RAP SHOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS
THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO GUSTS 45-50
KNOTS WILL BE EXPECTED. CONCERNING THE ESTF UPDATE THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM AS GUIDANCE DIDN`T CAPTURE HOW MIXED TODAY WOULD BECOME
AND WAS COOLING THE AREA ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES TO MUCH.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH
BROAD REGION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST
OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
HAVE PROMOTED GOOD MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND
MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL/BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH BROAD REGION
OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE PROMOTED GOOD
MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND
MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH BROAD REGION
OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE PROMOTED GOOD
MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND
MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242029
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.
GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH BROAD REGION OF STRONG
WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE PROMOTED GOOD
MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS FEATURE
WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE
FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 45-55
MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 03-09Z TONIGHT...AND
GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT REMAINING BELOW
40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
(AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND MAY
YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F AREAWIDE WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL
SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET
DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20
MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH
AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PARAMOUNT...OF
COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND OFFERS EXACTLY
ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE
12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242029
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.
GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH BROAD REGION OF STRONG
WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE PROMOTED GOOD
MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS FEATURE
WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE
FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 45-55
MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 03-09Z TONIGHT...AND
GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT REMAINING BELOW
40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
(AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND MAY
YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F AREAWIDE WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL
SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET
DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20
MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH
AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PARAMOUNT...OF
COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND OFFERS EXACTLY
ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE
12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY GOOD LOW-
LEVEL MIXING OWING TO STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE MID-UPR 60S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WILL BE RECORD/NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (RECORD IS 65F
AT BTV TODAY...SET IN 1999 AND 1931). CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY FOR LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY 40-45F AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY GOOD LOW-
LEVEL MIXING OWING TO STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE MID-UPR 60S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WILL BE RECORD/NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (RECORD IS 65F
AT BTV TODAY...SET IN 1999 AND 1931). CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY FOR LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY 40-45F AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY GOOD LOW-
LEVEL MIXING OWING TO STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE MID-UPR 60S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WILL BE RECORD/NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (RECORD IS 65F
AT BTV TODAY...SET IN 1999 AND 1931). CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE
BDNRY TONIGHT...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
FOR LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 40-45F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY GOOD LOW-
LEVEL MIXING OWING TO STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE MID-UPR 60S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WILL BE RECORD/NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (RECORD IS 65F
AT BTV TODAY...SET IN 1999 AND 1931). CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE
BDNRY TONIGHT...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
FOR LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 40-45F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 932 AM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES MOST LOCATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY FOR THAT LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW
FLAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY 40-45F AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 932 AM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES MOST LOCATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY FOR THAT LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW
FLAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY 40-45F AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EST MONDAY...UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
RAIN TIMING AND BLEND IN OBSERVED WEATHER. FORECAST UNFOLDING AS
PLANNED, RAIN COVERING MOST ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT JUST NOW MOVING
IN TO FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT, AND BEGINNING ITS EXIT OF WESTERN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY. TREND OF RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RELATIVE MIN IN POPS EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
COME BACK UP TO CHANCE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND
SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY.

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES QUITE
WARM...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET OVER 60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND
PREVENT WIND FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS
WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EST MONDAY...UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
RAIN TIMING AND BLEND IN OBSERVED WEATHER. FORECAST UNFOLDING AS
PLANNED, RAIN COVERING MOST ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT JUST NOW MOVING
IN TO FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT, AND BEGINNING ITS EXIT OF WESTERN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY. TREND OF RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RELATIVE MIN IN POPS EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
COME BACK UP TO CHANCE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND
SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY.

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES QUITE
WARM...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET OVER 60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND
PREVENT WIND FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS
WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN FORECAST
FOCUS IS THE SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ESSEX COUNTIES AROUND 08Z, COVER
NEAR ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY 12Z, AND
MOVE TO CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. RAIN TO END WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER
60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND PREVENT WIND
FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL SEE
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN FORECAST
FOCUS IS THE SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ESSEX COUNTIES AROUND 08Z, COVER
NEAR ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY 12Z, AND
MOVE TO CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. RAIN TO END WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER
60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND PREVENT WIND
FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL SEE
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240828
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN FORECAST
FOCUS IS THE SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ESSEX COUNTIES AROUND 08Z, COVER
NEAR ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY 12Z, AND
MOVE TO CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. RAIN TO END WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER
60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND PREVENT WIND
FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL SEE
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHEAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRIONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WETBULB COOLING OF NEAR
SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240537
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240537
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240303
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST SUNDAY... WV AND IR SATELLITE SHOW THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN BEFORE DAY BREAK HAS MOVED WELL INTO THE AREA. SKIES ARE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST WITH A STRATUS DECK ACROSS VERMONT AND NEW
YORK. RIGHT NOW THE WARM FRONT PRECIP SHIELD IS MOVING QUICKLY TO
THE NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS JUST MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK AND SO I EXPECT IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER 4 TO 5 HOURS
BEFORE IT BEGINS IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT IT WILL BE A QUICK SOAKING RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING
COMMUTE AND THEN PUSH QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA SO I QUICKLY ENDED
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 15Z OR 10AM EST. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST OVER NIGHT LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WARM AIR FROM THE
WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND TOMORROW WILL WARM UP TO THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240303
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST SUNDAY... WV AND IR SATELLITE SHOW THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN BEFORE DAY BREAK HAS MOVED WELL INTO THE AREA. SKIES ARE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST WITH A STRATUS DECK ACROSS VERMONT AND NEW
YORK. RIGHT NOW THE WARM FRONT PRECIP SHIELD IS MOVING QUICKLY TO
THE NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS JUST MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK AND SO I EXPECT IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER 4 TO 5 HOURS
BEFORE IT BEGINS IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT IT WILL BE A QUICK SOAKING RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING
COMMUTE AND THEN PUSH QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA SO I QUICKLY ENDED
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 15Z OR 10AM EST. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST OVER NIGHT LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WARM AIR FROM THE
WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND TOMORROW WILL WARM UP TO THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 232351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HEAVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH
PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS
IN THE GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO
0.60"...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS
IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 232351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HEAVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH
PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS
IN THE GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO
0.60"...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS
IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 232335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...DEAL/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 232335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...DEAL/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 232053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 232053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 232033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDENSDAY...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME
TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET.
WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMMINATING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS 15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 232033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDENSDAY...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME
TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET.
WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMMINATING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS 15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1212 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING SHOWERS
GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1212 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING SHOWERS
GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END AS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS HAVING A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THESE BREAKS...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 40S FOR
MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END AS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS HAVING A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THESE BREAKS...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 40S FOR
MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230818
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST SUNDAY...INFLUX OF WARM AIR CONTINUES IN THE
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW...WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 850MB
WINDS AT 35-45KTS. TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION RANGE FROM MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS NEAR FREEZING SUCH AT THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS - TPK AT 32 DEGREES- AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX/FREEZING
RAIN AND SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
ISOLATED/SPOTTY AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE S/SW FLOW CANNOT SCOUR OUT COLDER
AIR. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY FROM NRN NY EASTWARD INTO
VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST SUNDAY...INFLUX OF WARM AIR CONTINUES IN THE
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW...WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 850MB
WINDS AT 35-45KTS. TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION RANGE FROM MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS NEAR FREEZING SUCH AT THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS - TPK AT 32 DEGREES- AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX/FREEZING
RAIN AND SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
ISOLATED/SPOTTY AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE S/SW FLOW CANNOT SCOUR OUT COLDER
AIR. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY FROM NRN NY EASTWARD INTO
VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-
     004-007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKING GOOD WITH
RESPECT TO PERIODS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN VERMONT STILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...THUS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKING GOOD WITH
RESPECT TO PERIODS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN VERMONT STILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...THUS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT
WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH
OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT
WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH
OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222040
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222040
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. SEEING WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE). THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
GETTING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AT NOON (MALONE 37F AND
ELLENBERG DEPOT 39F).

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM)...BUT RADAR
TRENDS AT 1730Z SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH. GRIDS ALREADY HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-
COVERED...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ICE PELLETS FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT- DURATION EVENT YIELDS LESS THAN
0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. SEEING WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE). THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
GETTING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AT NOON (MALONE 37F AND
ELLENBERG DEPOT 39F).

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM)...BUT RADAR
TRENDS AT 1730Z SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH. GRIDS ALREADY HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-
COVERED...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ICE PELLETS FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT- DURATION EVENT YIELDS LESS THAN
0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221524
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221524
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221150
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN
AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS MORNING STARTS TO SLIDE EAST.

PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS A RESULT,
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE
00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221150
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN
AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS MORNING STARTS TO SLIDE EAST.

PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS A RESULT,
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE
00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON SO
STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON SO
STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE ONGWAVE
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD
AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY
FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER
500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL
DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE ONGWAVE
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD
AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY
FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER
500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL
DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 944 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT REST
OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 944 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT REST
OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




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