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000
FXUS61 KBTV 210601
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1206 AM EST SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210601
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1206 AM EST SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 210507
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1206 AM EST SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL IFR
DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR AFTER
THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210507
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1206 AM EST SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL IFR
DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR AFTER
THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 210225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 634 PM EST SATURDAY...RATHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 20S AND TEENS. FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE DEGREE OF STRATUS CLOUD COVER...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT ADVECTS NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING HIGH.
RETURN FLOW ALOFT IS INITIALLY VERY WEAK SO EXPECTING ONLY A SLOW
NORTHWARD ADVANCE OVERNIGHT. ALSO DEALING WITH SOME STRATUS UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING PRESSURE-
DRIVEN CHANNELING OF LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS
TO BACK SOUTHWEST INTO HIGHGATE...MONTREAL...MASSENA ETC. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO ESSENTIALLY STAY PUT OR BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...WITH LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
CENTRAL/NORTH BECOMING CAUGHT IN A SQUEEZE PLAY. 18Z NAM12 1 KM
AGL RH APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS THE BEST SO LEANED
IN THIS DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AS OF EARLY EVENING. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 342 PM EST SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW
CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 634 PM EST SATURDAY...RATHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 20S AND TEENS. FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE DEGREE OF STRATUS CLOUD COVER...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT ADVECTS NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING HIGH.
RETURN FLOW ALOFT IS INITIALLY VERY WEAK SO EXPECTING ONLY A SLOW
NORTHWARD ADVANCE OVERNIGHT. ALSO DEALING WITH SOME STRATUS UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING PRESSURE-
DRIVEN CHANNELING OF LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS
TO BACK SOUTHWEST INTO HIGHGATE...MONTREAL...MASSENA ETC. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO ESSENTIALLY STAY PUT OR BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...WITH LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
CENTRAL/NORTH BECOMING CAUGHT IN A SQUEEZE PLAY. 18Z NAM12 1 KM
AGL RH APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS THE BEST SO LEANED
IN THIS DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AS OF EARLY EVENING. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 342 PM EST SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW
CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
618 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING
INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FEET. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
SNOWMELT.  THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL
STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW
SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE
MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED
ALLOWING FOR  THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH
WEST TO MOVE IN.  WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
618 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING
INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FEET. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
SNOWMELT.  THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL
STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW
SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE
MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED
ALLOWING FOR  THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH
WEST TO MOVE IN.  WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202042
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING
INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FEET. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
SNOWMELT.  THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL
STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW
SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE
MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED
ALLOWING FOR  THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH
WEST TO MOVE IN.  WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A SOLID CLOUD DECK FORMED ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND HAS KEPT KPBG UNDER LOW OVERCAST MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND ON VIS SATELLITE IT APPEARS THAT THE
CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIDING NORTH. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT. AS
THE STRATUS DECK FORMS THERE WILL BE SOME LIKE GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN NY SITES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIKELY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202042
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING
INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FEET. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
SNOWMELT.  THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL
STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW
SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE
MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED
ALLOWING FOR  THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH
WEST TO MOVE IN.  WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A SOLID CLOUD DECK FORMED ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND HAS KEPT KPBG UNDER LOW OVERCAST MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND ON VIS SATELLITE IT APPEARS THAT THE
CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIDING NORTH. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT. AS
THE STRATUS DECK FORMS THERE WILL BE SOME LIKE GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN NY SITES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIKELY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
106 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST SATURDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
WITH PERSIST AREA OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. OTHERWISE...
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A SOLID CLOUD DECK FORMED ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND HAS KEPT KPBG UNDER LOW OVERCAST MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND ON VIS SATELLITE IT APPEARS THAT THE
CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIDING NORTH. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT. AS
THE STRATUS DECK FORMS THERE WILL BE SOME LIKE GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN NY SITES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIKELY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
106 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST SATURDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
WITH PERSIST AREA OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. OTHERWISE...
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A SOLID CLOUD DECK FORMED ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND HAS KEPT KPBG UNDER LOW OVERCAST MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND ON VIS SATELLITE IT APPEARS THAT THE
CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIDING NORTH. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT. AS
THE STRATUS DECK FORMS THERE WILL BE SOME LIKE GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN NY SITES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIKELY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201700
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1200 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST SATURDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
WITH PERSIST AREA OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. OTHERWISE...
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201700
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1200 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST SATURDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
WITH PERSIST AREA OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. OTHERWISE...
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
855 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 855 AM EST SATURDAY...COLD AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
QUITE A FEW SITES STILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS COLDER START...BUT HIGHS IN THE
20S STILL LOOK GOOD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
855 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 855 AM EST SATURDAY...COLD AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
QUITE A FEW SITES STILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS COLDER START...BUT HIGHS IN THE
20S STILL LOOK GOOD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE FOR 630 AM UPDATE WAS TO
USE BTV12 BLENDED WITH BTV4 TO GET CLOSE TO CURRENT SKY COVER AND
HOW CLOUDS MIGHT EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE FOR 630 AM UPDATE WAS TO
USE BTV12 BLENDED WITH BTV4 TO GET CLOSE TO CURRENT SKY COVER AND
HOW CLOUDS MIGHT EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 201124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE FOR 630 AM UPDATE WAS TO
USE BTV12 BLENDED WITH BTV4 TO GET CLOSE TO CURRENT SKY COVER AND
HOW CLOUDS MIGHT EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER 10Z.
MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE FOR 630 AM UPDATE WAS TO
USE BTV12 BLENDED WITH BTV4 TO GET CLOSE TO CURRENT SKY COVER AND
HOW CLOUDS MIGHT EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER 10Z.
MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 200902
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE
TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME
CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER 10Z.
MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE
TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME
CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER 10Z.
MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE
TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME
CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER 10Z.
MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 200552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER
10Z. MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF
SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.
SOME MID CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 200552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER
10Z. MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF
SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.
SOME MID CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1226 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1226 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 200231
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
931 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 931 PM EST FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200231
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
931 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 931 PM EST FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 192339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 639 PM EST FRIDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AS OF
EARLY EVENING TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LATEST IR
IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEARING HAS EASED SOUTHWARD
A LITTLE FASTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MATCH
THESE CURRENT TRENDS...SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AND ALLOWING AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF CURRENT
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LONGWAVE RADIATIVE EFFECTS TAKE
HOLD. HAVE LEFT CURRENT FORECAST MINIMUMS ALONE AT THIS
POINT...BUT I IMAGINE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY LATER
THIS EVENING AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERALL DEGREE OF
CLEARING AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
IN GOOD SHAPE SHOWING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 319 PM EST FRIDAY...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION
OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS
ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES. NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-
EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT
SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD
TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST
OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL
CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED
NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST
AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-
MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW- MID TEENS. WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO
LOWS IN LOCATIONS SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY NW-N 5-10 MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...LOCONTO/EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 192339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 639 PM EST FRIDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AS OF
EARLY EVENING TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LATEST IR
IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEARING HAS EASED SOUTHWARD
A LITTLE FASTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MATCH
THESE CURRENT TRENDS...SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AND ALLOWING AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF CURRENT
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LONGWAVE RADIATIVE EFFECTS TAKE
HOLD. HAVE LEFT CURRENT FORECAST MINIMUMS ALONE AT THIS
POINT...BUT I IMAGINE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY LATER
THIS EVENING AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERALL DEGREE OF
CLEARING AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
IN GOOD SHAPE SHOWING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 319 PM EST FRIDAY...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION
OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS
ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES. NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-
EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT
SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD
TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST
OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL
CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED
NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST
AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-
MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW- MID TEENS. WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO
LOWS IN LOCATIONS SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY NW-N 5-10 MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...LOCONTO/EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 192327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES.
NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB
LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF
ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID TEENS.
WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO LOWS IN LOCATIONS
SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 5-10
MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO





000
FXUS61 KBTV 192327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES.
NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB
LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF
ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID TEENS.
WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO LOWS IN LOCATIONS
SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 5-10
MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 192026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES.
NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB
LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF
ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID TEENS.
WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO LOWS IN LOCATIONS
SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 5-10
MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 192026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES.
NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB
LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF
ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID TEENS.
WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO LOWS IN LOCATIONS
SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 5-10
MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1239 PM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY EWD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLEARING IS GRADUALLY
WORKING SOUTHWARD FROM SRN QUEBEC/MONTREAL AREA...BUT THE NORTH
COUNTRY GENERALLY REMAINS OVERCAST AT 1745Z. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES
ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH
PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST
SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES
ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1239 PM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY EWD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLEARING IS GRADUALLY
WORKING SOUTHWARD FROM SRN QUEBEC/MONTREAL AREA...BUT THE NORTH
COUNTRY GENERALLY REMAINS OVERCAST AT 1745Z. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES
ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH
PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST
SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES
ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 191739
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING
BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER
WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS
REPRESENTS LITTLE RISE FROM READINGS THIS MORNING...OWING TO
PREVAILING STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 191739
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING
BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER
WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS
REPRESENTS LITTLE RISE FROM READINGS THIS MORNING...OWING TO
PREVAILING STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING
BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER
WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS
REPRESENTS LITTLE RISE FROM READINGS THIS MORNING...OWING TO
PREVAILING STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV THIS MORNING AND IFR
CONTINUING AT SLK INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SAME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SITES MOST LIKELY
TO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ARE PBG THIS AFTERNOON AND MSS TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...EXCEPT
LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 191445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING
BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER
WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS
REPRESENTS LITTLE RISE FROM READINGS THIS MORNING...OWING TO
PREVAILING STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV THIS MORNING AND IFR
CONTINUING AT SLK INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SAME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SITES MOST LIKELY
TO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ARE PBG THIS AFTERNOON AND MSS TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...EXCEPT
LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191155
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV THIS MORNING AND IFR
CONTINUING AT SLK INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SAME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SITES MOST LIKELY
TO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ARE PBG THIS AFTERNOON AND MSS TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...EXCEPT
LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 191123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
623 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT
SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL
DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 191123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
623 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT
SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL
DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 190843
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT
SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL
DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 190843
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT
SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL
DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 190810
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT
SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL
DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 190810
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT
SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL
DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 190552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1221 AM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1230
UPDATE. PATCHY -FZDZ HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NY
AND CENTRAL/NRN VT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AS PRIMARY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH LAYERS ARE TRENDING UNSATURATED. THIS HAS BEEN PICKED UP
QUITE WELL ON THIS EVENING`S RAP SOUNDING PROFILES AND HAVE ISSUED
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LIGHT GLAZE
ICING ON UNTREATED/ELEVATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE PATCHY -FZDZ AND SOME
PASSING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...A GENERALLY
CLOUDY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE TO
POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT
SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL
DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 190552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1221 AM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1230
UPDATE. PATCHY -FZDZ HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NY
AND CENTRAL/NRN VT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AS PRIMARY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH LAYERS ARE TRENDING UNSATURATED. THIS HAS BEEN PICKED UP
QUITE WELL ON THIS EVENING`S RAP SOUNDING PROFILES AND HAVE ISSUED
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LIGHT GLAZE
ICING ON UNTREATED/ELEVATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE PATCHY -FZDZ AND SOME
PASSING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...A GENERALLY
CLOUDY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE TO
POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT
SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL
DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 190524
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1224 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1221 AM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1230
UPDATE. PATCHY -FZDZ HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NY
AND CENTRAL/NRN VT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AS PRIMARY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH LAYERS ARE TRENDING UNSATURATED. THIS HAS BEEN PICKED UP
QUITE WELL ON THIS EVENING`S RAP SOUNDING PROFILES AND HAVE ISSUED
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LIGHT GLAZE
ICING ON UNTREATED/ELEVATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE PATCHY -FZDZ AND SOME
PASSING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...A GENERALLY
CLOUDY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE TO
POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT
MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT SLK FOR FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO
LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AND THAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 12Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 190524
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1224 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1221 AM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1230
UPDATE. PATCHY -FZDZ HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NY
AND CENTRAL/NRN VT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AS PRIMARY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH LAYERS ARE TRENDING UNSATURATED. THIS HAS BEEN PICKED UP
QUITE WELL ON THIS EVENING`S RAP SOUNDING PROFILES AND HAVE ISSUED
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LIGHT GLAZE
ICING ON UNTREATED/ELEVATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE PATCHY -FZDZ AND SOME
PASSING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...A GENERALLY
CLOUDY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE TO
POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT
MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT SLK FOR FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO
LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AND THAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 12Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 190228
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
928 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 928 PM EST THURSDAY...PATCHY -FZDZ HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN NY AND CENTRAL/NRN VT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AS
PRIMARY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYERS ARE TRENDING UNSATURATED.
THIS HAS BEEN PICKED UP QUITE WELL ON THIS EVENING`S RAP SOUNDING
PROFILES AND HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT
POTENTIAL LIGHT GLAZE ICING ON UNTREATED/ELEVATED SURFACES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS BLOCKED
MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE
PATCHY -FZDZ AND SOME PASSING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...A GENERALLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE
TO POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT
MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT SLK FOR FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO
LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AND THAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 12Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 190228
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
928 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 928 PM EST THURSDAY...PATCHY -FZDZ HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN NY AND CENTRAL/NRN VT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AS
PRIMARY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYERS ARE TRENDING UNSATURATED.
THIS HAS BEEN PICKED UP QUITE WELL ON THIS EVENING`S RAP SOUNDING
PROFILES AND HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT
POTENTIAL LIGHT GLAZE ICING ON UNTREATED/ELEVATED SURFACES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS BLOCKED
MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE
PATCHY -FZDZ AND SOME PASSING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...A GENERALLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE
TO POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT
MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT SLK FOR FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO
LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AND THAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 12Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 182345
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DID OPT TO INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY
-FZDZ TO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES AND INTO FAR WRN VT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT BASED OFF LATEST RAP SOUNDING PROFILES AND A
RECENT LIGHT ICING REPORT ON THE 23Z KSLK OBSERVATION. ANY ICING
WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST THOUGH. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES/WINDS/POPS/SKY COVER REMAIN LARGELY ON TRACK SO ONLY
OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BLEND CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO
EXISTENT DATASETS AT 06Z. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
DEEP-LAYER LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY FLOW IN PLACE AS CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY EXITS NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW- LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF 925-875MB INVERSION AND
TRAPPED MOISTURE/SATURATED LAYER BELOW THAT LEVEL. BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OR ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. VISIBLE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT CONSIDERABLE STRATUS ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SO, LIKELY
REMAINING CLOUDY ACROSS FAR WRN SECTIONS AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR
BASED ON 12Z NAM AND LOCAL 12Z BTV-WRF RUNS THAT LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY
WANE TONIGHT AS SOME DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER.
THUS...WILL INDICATE DECREASING POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A DUSTING TO 1" OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN STRATUS DECK...WILL TREND ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECENT BIAS-CORRECTION SUGGESTS LOWS 3-4DEG ABOVE
12Z NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...AND WILL TREND LOWS IN THAT DIRECTION
(GENERALLY LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE
TO POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT
MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT SLK FOR FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO
LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AND THAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 12Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 182345
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DID OPT TO INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY
-FZDZ TO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES AND INTO FAR WRN VT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT BASED OFF LATEST RAP SOUNDING PROFILES AND A
RECENT LIGHT ICING REPORT ON THE 23Z KSLK OBSERVATION. ANY ICING
WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST THOUGH. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES/WINDS/POPS/SKY COVER REMAIN LARGELY ON TRACK SO ONLY
OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BLEND CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO
EXISTENT DATASETS AT 06Z. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
DEEP-LAYER LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY FLOW IN PLACE AS CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY EXITS NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW- LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF 925-875MB INVERSION AND
TRAPPED MOISTURE/SATURATED LAYER BELOW THAT LEVEL. BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OR ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. VISIBLE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT CONSIDERABLE STRATUS ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SO, LIKELY
REMAINING CLOUDY ACROSS FAR WRN SECTIONS AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR
BASED ON 12Z NAM AND LOCAL 12Z BTV-WRF RUNS THAT LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY
WANE TONIGHT AS SOME DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER.
THUS...WILL INDICATE DECREASING POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A DUSTING TO 1" OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN STRATUS DECK...WILL TREND ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECENT BIAS-CORRECTION SUGGESTS LOWS 3-4DEG ABOVE
12Z NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...AND WILL TREND LOWS IN THAT DIRECTION
(GENERALLY LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE
TO POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT
MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT SLK FOR FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO
LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AND THAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 12Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 182338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...DEEP-LAYER LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY FLOW IN
PLACE AS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY EXITS NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS LAYER WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF
925-875MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED MOISTURE/SATURATED LAYER BELOW
THAT LEVEL. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY OR ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SO, LIKELY REMAINING CLOUDY ACROSS FAR
WRN SECTIONS AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 12Z NAM AND LOCAL
12Z BTV-WRF RUNS THAT LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY WANE TONIGHT AS SOME DRYING
OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER. THUS...WILL INDICATE DECREASING
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A DUSTING TO 1" OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS. GIVEN STRATUS DECK...WILL TREND ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECENT BIAS-CORRECTION SUGGESTS LOWS
3-4DEG ABOVE 12Z NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...AND WILL TREND LOWS IN THAT
DIRECTION (GENERALLY LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE
TO POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT
MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT SLK FOR FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO
LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AND THAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 12Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 182338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...DEEP-LAYER LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY FLOW IN
PLACE AS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY EXITS NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS LAYER WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF
925-875MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED MOISTURE/SATURATED LAYER BELOW
THAT LEVEL. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY OR ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SO, LIKELY REMAINING CLOUDY ACROSS FAR
WRN SECTIONS AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 12Z NAM AND LOCAL
12Z BTV-WRF RUNS THAT LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY WANE TONIGHT AS SOME DRYING
OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER. THUS...WILL INDICATE DECREASING
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A DUSTING TO 1" OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS. GIVEN STRATUS DECK...WILL TREND ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECENT BIAS-CORRECTION SUGGESTS LOWS
3-4DEG ABOVE 12Z NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...AND WILL TREND LOWS IN THAT
DIRECTION (GENERALLY LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE
TO POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT
MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT SLK FOR FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO
LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AND THAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 12Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 181949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
249 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...DEEP-LAYER LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY FLOW IN
PLACE AS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY EXITS NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS LAYER WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF
925-875MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED MOISTURE/SATURATED LAYER BELOW
THAT LEVEL. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY OR ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SO, LIKELY REMAINING CLOUDY ACROSS FAR
WRN SECTIONS AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 12Z NAM AND LOCAL
12Z BTV-WRF RUNS THAT LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY WANE TONIGHT AS SOME DRYING
OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER. THUS...WILL INDICATE DECREASING
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A DUSTING TO 1" OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS. GIVEN STRATUS DECK...WILL TREND ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECENT BIAS-CORRECTION SUGGESTS LOWS
3-4DEG ABOVE 12Z NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...AND WILL TREND LOWS IN THAT
DIRECTION (GENERALLY LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE
TO POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. KBTV/KPBG AND KRUT WILL SEE
PERIODS OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOIST NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV
AND KSLK. SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES, WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING, EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
BUT KSLK DURING THE MID-MORNING.

GUSTY W-NW WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES WITH GUSTS
UP TO 24KTS. DURING THE EVENING, GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 181949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
249 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...DEEP-LAYER LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY FLOW IN
PLACE AS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY EXITS NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS LAYER WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF
925-875MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED MOISTURE/SATURATED LAYER BELOW
THAT LEVEL. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY OR ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SO, LIKELY REMAINING CLOUDY ACROSS FAR
WRN SECTIONS AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 12Z NAM AND LOCAL
12Z BTV-WRF RUNS THAT LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY WANE TONIGHT AS SOME DRYING
OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER. THUS...WILL INDICATE DECREASING
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A DUSTING TO 1" OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS. GIVEN STRATUS DECK...WILL TREND ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECENT BIAS-CORRECTION SUGGESTS LOWS
3-4DEG ABOVE 12Z NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...AND WILL TREND LOWS IN THAT
DIRECTION (GENERALLY LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE
TO POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. KBTV/KPBG AND KRUT WILL SEE
PERIODS OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOIST NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV
AND KSLK. SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES, WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING, EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
BUT KSLK DURING THE MID-MORNING.

GUSTY W-NW WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES WITH GUSTS
UP TO 24KTS. DURING THE EVENING, GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 181928
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
228 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW STRATUS
DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW- MOVING LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
AT 17Z STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS IN CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECTATION OF 2-4" OF ADDITION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER SUMMITS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT AS CURRENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATES SEWD INTO
THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITION ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
33-36F RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NWLY 5- 10 MPH. ANY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
NERN VT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ROAD SURFACES THRU THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. KBTV/KPBG AND KRUT WILL SEE
PERIODS OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOIST NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV
AND KSLK. SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES, WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING, EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
BUT KSLK DURING THE MID-MORNING.

GUSTY W-NW WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES WITH GUSTS
UP TO 24KTS. DURING THE EVENING, GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 181928
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
228 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW STRATUS
DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW- MOVING LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
AT 17Z STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS IN CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECTATION OF 2-4" OF ADDITION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER SUMMITS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT AS CURRENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATES SEWD INTO
THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITION ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
33-36F RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NWLY 5- 10 MPH. ANY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
NERN VT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ROAD SURFACES THRU THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. KBTV/KPBG AND KRUT WILL SEE
PERIODS OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOIST NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV
AND KSLK. SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES, WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING, EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
BUT KSLK DURING THE MID-MORNING.

GUSTY W-NW WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES WITH GUSTS
UP TO 24KTS. DURING THE EVENING, GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 181744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW STRATUS
DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW- MOVING LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
AT 17Z STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS IN CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECTATION OF 2-4" OF ADDITION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER SUMMITS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT AS CURRENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATES SEWD INTO
THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITION ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
33-36F RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NWLY 5- 10 MPH. ANY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
NERN VT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ROAD SURFACES THRU THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. KBTV/KPBG AND KRUT WILL SEE
PERIODS OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOIST NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV
AND KSLK. SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES, WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING, EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
BUT KSLK DURING THE MID-MORNING.

GUSTY W-NW WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES WITH GUSTS
UP TO 24KTS. DURING THE EVENING, GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 181702
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1202 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW STRATUS
DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW- MOVING LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
AT 17Z STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS IN CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECTATION OF 2-4" OF ADDITION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER SUMMITS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT AS CURRENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATES SEWD INTO
THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITION ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
33-36F RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NWLY 5- 10 MPH. ANY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
NERN VT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ROAD SURFACES THRU THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 181702
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1202 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW STRATUS
DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW- MOVING LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
AT 17Z STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS IN CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECTATION OF 2-4" OF ADDITION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER SUMMITS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT AS CURRENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATES SEWD INTO
THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITION ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
33-36F RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NWLY 5- 10 MPH. ANY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
NERN VT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ROAD SURFACES THRU THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 181454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 948 AM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS
TODAY AS LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW-
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS IN CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME. EXPECTATION OF 2-4" OF ADDITION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER SUMMITS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. LITTLE OR
NO ADDITION ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 33-36F RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY 5- 10 MPH. ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO NERN VT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ROAD SURFACES THRU THE
GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 181454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 948 AM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS
TODAY AS LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW-
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS IN CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME. EXPECTATION OF 2-4" OF ADDITION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER SUMMITS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. LITTLE OR
NO ADDITION ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 33-36F RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY 5- 10 MPH. ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO NERN VT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ROAD SURFACES THRU THE
GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 181149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 181149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 181149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 18Z AND
MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT
THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 181130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 181130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 180913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 180913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL
2-4" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.
PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 180859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN. PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS
DEEP LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN. PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS
DEEP LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 180859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN. PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS
DEEP LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 180859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN. PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS
DEEP LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




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