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000
FXUS61 KBTV 250805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB
THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE 7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE
TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL)
SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.  FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS WITH
IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK THROUGH 11-12Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS
ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK UP COMING INTO VERMONT
WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...BUT EXPECT
VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE
TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB
THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE 7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE
TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL)
SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.  FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS.
SOME MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH AT KMPV AND KSLK. HAVE BACKED
OFF ON IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK
UP COMING INTO VERMONT WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT EXPECT VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS
WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB
THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE 7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE
TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL)
SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.  FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FSCT AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS.
SOME MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH AT KMPV AND KSLK. HAVE BACKED
OFF ON IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK
UP COMING INTO VERMONT WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT EXPECT VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS
WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
LATE THIS EVENING. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF
700MB CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OFFSHORE LOW THROUGH ABOUT
03-06Z TONIGHT...AFTER WHICH TIME A NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOSS OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CLOSELY
MARKS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PREVAILING STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS EVIDENT
ON EVENING IR IMAGERY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. ANTICIPATE A SLOW BUT STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
CLEARING LINE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
THRU CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS LATE TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WILL END BY 03Z
OR SO.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIVE
COOLING CYCLE EARLY...WITH SOME BETTER POTENTIAL LATE. GENERALLY
STAYED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. LOCALLY NEAR 32F IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS
WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION.

THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A FEW
HOURS OF CLEARING LATE, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS.
SOME MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH AT KMPV AND KSLK. HAVE BACKED
OFF ON IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK
UP COMING INTO VERMONT WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT EXPECT VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS
WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
LATE THIS EVENING. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF
700MB CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OFFSHORE LOW THROUGH ABOUT
03-06Z TONIGHT...AFTER WHICH TIME A NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOSS OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CLOSELY
MARKS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PREVAILING STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS EVIDENT
ON EVENING IR IMAGERY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. ANTICIPATE A SLOW BUT STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
CLEARING LINE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
THRU CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS LATE TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WILL END BY 03Z
OR SO.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIVE
COOLING CYCLE EARLY...WITH SOME BETTER POTENTIAL LATE. GENERALLY
STAYED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. LOCALLY NEAR 32F IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS
WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION.

THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A FEW
HOURS OF CLEARING LATE, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...SEVERAL TAF LOCATIONS NOW VFR...AND REMAINING
TO IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN GULF OF
MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...AND WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER
TO MAINTAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS SHOWING CLEARING LINE FROM ABOUT KMSS STRAIGHT SOUTH...WITH A
FEW HOURS CLEAR BEFORE A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES IN TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LIFR FOG AT KMPV AFTER
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...AND CONTINUED WITH THIS FORECAST AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE LEFT FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DID NOT FORECAST FG/LIFR AT
KSLK AS RAIN HELD OFF THERE. VFR CIGS TO MOVE IN WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED RW IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WENT WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242345
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
THIS EVENING. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS WITHIN 700MB CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THOUGH ABOUT 03-06Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME A NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE
LOSS OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CLOSELY MARKS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PREVAILING STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS EVIDENT ON EVENING IR IMAGERY
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE A
SLOW BUT STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING LINE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THRU CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT WILL END BY 03Z OR SO.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIVE
COOLING CYCLE EARLY...WITH SOME BETTER POTENTIAL LATE. GENERALLY
STAYED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. LOCALLY NEAR 32F IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS
WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION.

THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A FEW
HOURS OF CLEARING LATE, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...SEVERAL TAF LOCATIONS NOW VFR...AND REMAINING
TO IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN GULF OF
MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...AND WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER
TO MAINTAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS SHOWING CLEARING LINE FROM ABOUT KMSS STRAIGHT SOUTH...WITH A
FEW HOURS CLEAR BEFORE A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES IN TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LIFR FOG AT KMPV AFTER
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...AND CONTINUED WITH THIS FORECAST AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE LEFT FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DID NOT FORECAST FG/LIFR AT
KSLK AS RAIN HELD OFF THERE. VFR CIGS TO MOVE IN WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED RW IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WENT WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER WISE,
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING EXACTLY WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR -- WHICH HAS A BIG POTENTIAL ON HOW COLD IT COULD GET.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID-EVENING, WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH CLEARING FINALLY
TAKING PLACE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS, HAVE GONE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR EASTERN AREAS, AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO A BLEND/COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. IN THE END IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 30S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK (PERHAPS SUB-FREEZING IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF
THE `DACKS). MEANWHILE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS VERMONT -- MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

I SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A
FEW HOURS OF CLEARING, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...SEVERAL TAF LOCATIONS NOW VFR...AND REMAINING
TO IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN GULF OF
MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...AND WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER
TO MAINTAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS SHOWING CLEARING LINE FROM ABOUT KMSS STRAIGHT SOUTH...WITH A
FEW HOURS CLEAR BEFORE A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES IN TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LIFR FOG AT KMPV AFTER
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...AND CONTINUED WITH THIS FORECAST AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE LEFT FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DID NOT FORECAST FG/LIFR AT
KSLK AS RAIN HELD OFF THERE. VFR CIGS TO MOVE IN WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED RW IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WENT WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER WISE,
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING EXACTLY WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR -- WHICH HAS A BIG POTENTIAL ON HOW COLD IT COULD GET.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID-EVENING, WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH CLEARING FINALLY
TAKING PLACE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS, HAVE GONE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR EASTERN AREAS, AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO A BLEND/COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. IN THE END IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 30S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK (PERHAPS SUB-FREEZING IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF
THE `DACKS). MEANWHILE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS VERMONT -- MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

I SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A
FEW HOURS OF CLEARING, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT 18Z FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 04Z
SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG AT KMPV...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE
FOG AT KMPV FROM 07Z-14Z SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SKIES
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER WISE,
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING EXACTLY WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR -- WHICH HAS A BIG POTENTIAL ON HOW COLD IT COULD GET.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID-EVENING, WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH CLEARING FINALLY
TAKING PLACE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS, HAVE GONE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR EASTERN AREAS, AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO A BLEND/COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. IN THE END IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 30S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK (PERHAPS SUB-FREEZING IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF
THE `DACKS). MEANWHILE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS VERMONT -- MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

I SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A
FEW HOURS OF CLEARING, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT 18Z FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 04Z
SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG AT KMPV...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE
FOG AT KMPV FROM 07Z-14Z SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SKIES
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER WISE,
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING EXACTLY WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR -- WHICH HAS A BIG POTENTIAL ON HOW COLD IT COULD GET.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID-EVENING, WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH CLEARING FINALLY
TAKING PLACE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS, HAVE GONE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR EASTERN AREAS, AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO A BLEND/COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. IN THE END IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 30S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK (PERHAPS SUB-FREEZING IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF
THE `DACKS). MEANWHILE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS VERMONT -- MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

I SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A
FEW HOURS OF CLEARING, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT 18Z FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 04Z
SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG AT KMPV...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE
FOG AT KMPV FROM 07Z-14Z SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SKIES
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON REFRESH OF THE
FORECAST I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES OTHER THAN "IN THE WEEDS"
SORT OF STUFF TO MESH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST UP WITH
THE MOST RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS.

SLOOOOOOW IMPROVEMENT IS UNDERWAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OR DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHEN YOU GET UP
INTO THE CLOUDS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN, THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GO NOWHERE. FOR EXAMPLE, HERE AT
BTV WE ARE NOW 45F UP 3 WHOLE DEGREES FROM THE MORNING LOW.
MONTPELIER HAS ONLY RISEN 2 DEGREES (NOW 42 VS 40 FOR LOW). THE
PRIOR ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT 18Z FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 04Z
SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG AT KMPV...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE
FOG AT KMPV FROM 07Z-14Z SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SKIES
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241739
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON REFRESH OF THE
FORECAST I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES OTHER THAN "IN THE WEEDS"
SORT OF STUFF TO MESH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST UP WITH
THE MOST RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS.

SLOOOOOOW IMPROVEMENT IS UNDERWAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OR DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHEN YOU GET UP
INTO THE CLOUDS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN, THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GO NOWHERE. FOR EXAMPLE, HERE AT
BTV WE ARE NOW 45F UP 3 WHOLE DEGREES FROM THE MORNING LOW.
MONTPELIER HAS ONLY RISEN 2 DEGREES (NOW 42 VS 40 FOR LOW). THE
PRIOR ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR
VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER
00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1147 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1140 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST FINISHED A LITTLE BELATED LATE
MORNING UPDATE, BUT IN GENERAL THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

THE DEEP MOISTURE IS DEPARTING, AND BASED ON WEB CAMS AND SURFACE
OBS, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN, AND THIS IS MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT. ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA, SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
POKING INTO THE LOWER 50S THERE. FOR EVERYONE ELSE, LOW-MID 40S IS
ABOUT ALL (EXCEPT THE HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE 4000FT WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME LIGHT ICING
HAPPENING SINCE THEY ARE IN THE CLOUDS).

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THE IMPROVEMENT PROCESS IS GOING TO
BE PAINFULLY SLOW FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, BUT THAT WON`T BE UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNSET AT THE VERY
EARLIEST. AS A RESULT, I KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR
VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER
00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 711 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS PACKAGE. PATCHY SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR -DZ CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FCST
AREA AS OF 700 AM AS TEMPERATURES HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
40F. STILL EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF PCPN TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...ESP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO YOUR FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BENCHMARK EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES
OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM
THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE
SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR
VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER
00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 711 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS PACKAGE. PATCHY SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR -DZ CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FCST
AREA AS OF 700 AM AS TEMPERATURES HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
40F. STILL EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF PCPN TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...ESP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO YOUR FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BENCHMARK EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES
OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM
THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE
SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPPF AMOUNTS AND
TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO YOUR FRIDAY. OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY
FROM OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT
MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL
LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPPF AMOUNTS AND
TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240520
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST FETCH ACROSS ME/NH AND INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WHICH WILL PIVOT WESTWARD
ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON TODAY ONLY VARIED 3 DEGREES
SINCE MIDNIGHT...FROM 44-47F. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-15 MPH. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WITH CHANNELED
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH WINDS NORTH AT 15-25 KNOTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN HIGHEST ACROSS WINDSOR COUNTY
IN SERN VT WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.2-1.4". TOTALS STEADILY DROP
OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER
0.53" AT MPV AND 0.37" AT BTV. AMOUNTS ACROSS NRN NY THUS FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 0.40". AN ELABORATED UPON IN THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240007
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
807 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST FETCH ACROSS ME/NH AND INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WHICH WILL PIVOT WESTWARD
ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON TODAY ONLY VARIED 3 DEGREES
SINCE MIDNIGHT...FROM 44-47F. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-15 MPH. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WITH CHANNELED
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH WINDS NORTH AT 15-25 KNOTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN HIGHEST ACROSS WINDSOR COUNTY
IN SERN VT WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.2-1.4". TOTALS STEADILY DROP
OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER
0.53" AT MPV AND 0.37" AT BTV. AMOUNTS ACROSS NRN NY THUS FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 0.40". AN ELABORATED UPON IN THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OFF AND ON PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TAF SITES RELATIVELY RAIN FREE AT FORECAST TIME
2330Z...AND TRIED TO TIME ARRIVAL OF NEXT RAIN BAND ARRIVING FROM
THE EAST AROUND 01-02Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...MID MORNING IN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY IN EASTERN
VERMONT. EXPECT A SHARP IMPROVEMENT AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
REVEALING MID-HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 232346
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR BETTER OR WORSE, WE FINALLY DID
GET OUR RAINY DAY. A QUICK LOOK AT RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS INDICATE THAT MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN 0.3" TO 0.7", WITH A
FEW SPOT TOTALS APPROACHING 1". THUS FAR THE HIGHEST TOTALS HAVE
BEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HAS HELPED.

FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH A
LITTLE BREAK DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWS THAT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAINE INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS
BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NY DURING THE EVENING. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED THE BASICALLY 100% POPS FOR THESE AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL
MID-EVENING. LOWER CHANCES (ON THE ORDER OF 60-80% ARE PAINTED IN
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT). GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY. AS WE LOSE THAT VERY MOIST
TAP OFF THE ATLANTIC, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY WERE
TODAY, SO LOTS OF LOWER 40S FOR US.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OFF AND ON PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TAF SITES RELATIVELY RAIN FREE AT FORECAST TIME
2330Z...AND TRIED TO TIME ARRIVAL OF NEXT RAIN BAND ARRIVING FROM
THE EAST AROUND 01-02Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...MID MORNING IN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY IN EASTERN
VERMONT. EXPECT A SHARP IMPROVEMENT AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
REVEALING MID-HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 232011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR BETTER OR WORSE, WE FINALLY DID
GET OUR RAINY DAY. A QUICK LOOK AT RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS INDICATE THAT MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN 0.3" TO 0.7", WITH A
FEW SPOT TOTALS APPROACHING 1". THUS FAR THE HIGHEST TOTALS HAVE
BEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HAS HELPED.

FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH A
LITTLE BREAK DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWS THAT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAINE INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS
BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NY DURING THE EVENING. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED THE BASICALLY 100% POPS FOR THESE AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL
MID-EVENING. LOWER CHANCES (ON THE ORDER OF 60-80% ARE PAINTED IN
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT). GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY. AS WE LOSE THAT VERY MOIST
TAP OFF THE ATLANTIC, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY WERE
TODAY, SO LOTS OF LOWER 40S FOR US.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING FORECAST REFRESH DOESN`T
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORECAST MODIFICATIONS. RADAR & SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD RAIN IS SPREADING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. COLDER/DEEPER CLOUDS ARE NOW OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWING PRETTY SOLID COVERAGE FROM
EASTERN VERMONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO MAINE. THUS THE
GOING FORECAST FOR POPS TO RAMP UP TO 100% FOR MOST OVER VERMONT
LOOKS GOOD. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
SOME DRIER AIR OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NY, SO ONCE
YOU GET WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, CHANCES FOR RAIN (AND
OVERALL AMOUNTS) WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LOW
IS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
ULTIMATE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND RAINFALL.
HAVE THUS MAINTAINED A 30-40% POP OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON.

THOUGH THE POPS WILL BE HIGH, THE TOTAL RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
IT WILL BE ALL THAT HEAVY. THUS FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE STAYED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AREA ACROSS MASSACHUSSETS. WILL
STAY WITH THE LOWERING TREND THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN
THE 0.5-0.9" RANGE AT THE MOST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AS WELL. DIDN`T MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. 40S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOW 50S OUT IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO LESS PRECIPITATION OUT THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING FORECAST REFRESH DOESN`T
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORECAST MODIFICATIONS. RADAR & SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD RAIN IS SPREADING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. COLDER/DEEPER CLOUDS ARE NOW OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWING PRETTY SOLID COVERAGE FROM
EASTERN VERMONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO MAINE. THUS THE
GOING FORECAST FOR POPS TO RAMP UP TO 100% FOR MOST OVER VERMONT
LOOKS GOOD. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
SOME DRIER AIR OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NY, SO ONCE
YOU GET WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, CHANCES FOR RAIN (AND
OVERALL AMOUNTS) WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LOW
IS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
ULTIMATE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND RAINFALL.
HAVE THUS MAINTAINED A 30-40% POP OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON.

THOUGH THE POPS WILL BE HIGH, THE TOTAL RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
IT WILL BE ALL THAT HEAVY. THUS FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE STAYED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AREA ACROSS MASSACHUSSETS. WILL
STAY WITH THE LOWERING TREND THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN
THE 0.5-0.9" RANGE AT THE MOST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AS WELL. DIDN`T MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. 40S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOW 50S OUT IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO LESS PRECIPITATION OUT THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT THURSDAY...OPTED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY 1-3 DEG
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST TODAY PER LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD OFFER HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN VT INTO THE DACKS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN THE SLV. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE BENCHMARK
BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A
BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE
SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD
RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE
SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT THURSDAY...OPTED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY 1-3 DEG
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST TODAY PER LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD OFFER HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN VT INTO THE DACKS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN THE SLV. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE BENCHMARK
BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A
BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO
THE EASTERN TWO THRIDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE
SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD
RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE
SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER
BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE BENCHMARK BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY
PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN TWO THRIDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS
TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER
BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE BENCHMARK BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY
PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN TWO THRIDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS
TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230246
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ
COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY
23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE
EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE
THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS
INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT
TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
808 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NE-EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS.
CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING
AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 2315UTC INDICATES BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE OF
POPS FROM EAST TO WEST. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONNDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
808 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NE-EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS.
CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING
AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 2315UTC INDICATES BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE OF
POPS FROM EAST TO WEST. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONNDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NE-EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS.
CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING
AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 2315UTC INDICATES BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE OF
POPS FROM EAST TO WEST. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 222014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW
IS ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN PRETTY MUCH CLOUDY SKIES
EVERYWHERE. THERE ARE A FEW EXCEPTIONS -- THANKS TO SOME
DOWNSLOPING, THERE WERE PEEKS OF SUN ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE NORTHERN GREENS. SOME DRIER AIR JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER IS
ALLOWING FOR A FEW BREAKS UP THERE AS WELL, AT LEAST PER SATELLITE
IMAGES. HOWEVER, DEEPER/COLDER CLOUD TOPS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND ARE SPREADING NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWS
RAIN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF HERE.
ALL 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT EVENTUALLY THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE POP FIELDS, I TRIED TO DEPICT THIS
INCREASE OF POPS FROM EAST TO WEST. IN FACT, OUT IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY THEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN ALL THAT MUCH TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS,
AND THEY WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. DID FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRENDS TO GO WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE SO LOOK FOR 40S
FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE. JUST TOO WARM ALOFT AS WELL FOR ANY
SNOW AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY THE LOW/MID 30S AT
WHITEFACE AND MANSFIELD, AND EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE TO SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT AS THE EAST FLOW ADVECTS IN WARMER ATLANTIC AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221928
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY, COOL AND A BIT DAMP ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS THAT
COVERED QUITE WELL. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NY, ALL TRAVELLING
WESTWARD AS THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM
(WHICH FOR TODAY IS TO THE EAST!) RADAR SHOWS A LARGER BLOB OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE AND INTO CENTRAL NH.
SOME OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO BE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. ANTICIPATE
THAT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO
CONTINUING THE BASICALLY 100% POPS LOOKS GOOD. LESSER CHANCES OF
RAIN THE FARTHER WEST ONE GOSE.

ALL IN ALL MINIMAL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM
EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER
LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY, COOL AND A BIT DAMP ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS THAT
COVERED QUITE WELL. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NY, ALL TRAVELLING
WESTWARD AS THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM
(WHICH FOR TODAY IS TO THE EAST!) RADAR SHOWS A LARGER BLOB OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE AND INTO CENTRAL NH.
SOME OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO BE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. ANTICIPATE
THAT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO
CONTINUING THE BASICALLY 100% POPS LOOKS GOOD. LESSER CHANCES OF
RAIN THE FARTHER WEST ONE GOSE.

ALL IN ALL MINIMAL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM
EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER
LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REASON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE MOVES DOWN ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY, COOL AND A BIT DAMP ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS THAT
COVERED QUITE WELL. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NY, ALL TRAVELLING
WESTWARD AS THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM
(WHICH FOR TODAY IS TO THE EAST!) RADAR SHOWS A LARGER BLOB OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE AND INTO CENTRAL NH.
SOME OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO BE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. ANTICIPATE
THAT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO
CONTINUING THE BASICALLY 100% POPS LOOKS GOOD. LESSER CHANCES OF
RAIN THE FARTHER WEST ONE GOSE.

ALL IN ALL MINIMAL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM
EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER
LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REASON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE MOVES DOWN ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221456
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1056 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY, COOL AND A BIT DAMP ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS THAT
COVERED QUITE WELL. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NY, ALL TRAVELLING
WESTWARD AS THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM
(WHICH FOR TODAY IS TO THE EAST!) RADAR SHOWS A LARGER BLOB OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE AND INTO CENTRAL NH.
SOME OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO BE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. ANTICIPATE
THAT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO
CONTINUING THE BASICALLY 100% POPS LOOKS GOOD. LESSER CHANCES OF
RAIN THE FARTHER WEST ONE GOSE.

ALL IN ALL MINIMAL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM
EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER
LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REASON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE MOVES DOWN ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY
AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES...MAINLY IN THE VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES WILL
LOWER INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES AFTER ABOUT 22Z. CEILINGS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CEILINGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORIES AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS...BUT WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
TRANSITION RIGHT NOW AS LOW PRESSURE IS TAKING SHAPE OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND ALLOW FOR MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
SEEING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
EASTWARD INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. THIS MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
LOOKING AT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM
EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER
LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REASON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE MOVES DOWN ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY
AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES...MAINLY IN THE VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES WILL
LOWER INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES AFTER ABOUT 22Z. CEILINGS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CEILINGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORIES AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS...BUT WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221103
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
703 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
TRANSITION RIGHT NOW AS LOW PRESSURE IS TAKING SHAPE OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND ALLOW FOR MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
SEEING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
EASTWARD INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. THIS MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
LOOKING AT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM
EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER
LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REASON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE MOVES DOWN ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR AT BTV WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH TENDENCY TOWARD MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NEW ENGLAND. DRIZZLE AND
PATCHES OF RAIN WILL BECOME PREVAILING IFR BY AFTERNOON AT MOST
TAF SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO AVOID THE
RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 TO 15
KNOTSWITH SOME G20 KT AT KMSS. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY ON FROM A CONTINUED NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS KBTV/KPBG/KMSS...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED
DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





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