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000
FXUS61 KBTV 011145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 639 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR SHERBROOKE QUEBEC AT 1040Z WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS
GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE AT THIS POINT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY. SOME BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE OVERCAST...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEADING TO PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. VERY HUMID AIR MASS
DID LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND THAT
FOG WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREA WIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +15C TO
+16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS LABOR DAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW
5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEW POINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO EXIST. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED...BUT A FEW PERIODS OF
LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING TO
KMPV AND KSLK AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 011045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 639 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR SHERBROOKE QUEBEC AT 1040Z WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS
GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE AT THIS POINT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY. SOME BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE OVERCAST...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEADING TO PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. VERY HUMID AIR MASS
DID LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND THAT
FOG WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +15C TO
+16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS LABOR DAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW
5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 011045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 639 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR SHERBROOKE QUEBEC AT 1040Z WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS
GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE AT THIS POINT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY. SOME BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE OVERCAST...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEADING TO PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. VERY HUMID AIR MASS
DID LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND THAT
FOG WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +15C TO
+16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS LABOR DAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW
5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR MONTREAL QUEBEC AT 0730Z WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THROUGH 12Z.
JUST A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT THROUGH 12Z OR
SO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE. ELSEWHERE...SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED
LEADING TO PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG THAT WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY
12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. COMBINED WITH
850MB TEMPS +15C TO +16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH
ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN
PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW 5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR MONTREAL QUEBEC AT 0730Z WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THROUGH 12Z.
JUST A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT THROUGH 12Z OR
SO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE. ELSEWHERE...SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED
LEADING TO PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG THAT WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY
12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. COMBINED WITH
850MB TEMPS +15C TO +16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH
ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN
PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW 5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 010539
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SLIDING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FRANKLIN/CLINTON NY COUNTIES AT
05Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 30-40 POPS ACROSS NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SOUTH OF
A BTV-1V4 LINE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NEXT 1-3 HRS...AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA AS
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE AS A RESULT OF THE HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH LOWS NEAR 70F AT BTV AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS S-SW 5-8 MPH WILL
GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND
STRONG. HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS
WERE TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR
HWO...THOUGH KEEP PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S)
UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUILDING HEIGHTS WITH SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010508
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SLIDING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FRANKLIN/CLINTON NY COUNTIES AT
05Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 30-40 POPS ACROSS NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SOUTH OF
A BTV-1V4 LINE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NEXT 1-3 HRS...AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE AS A RESULT OF THE HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH LOWS NEAR 70F AT BTV AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS S-SW 5-8 MPH WILL
GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 010508
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SLIDING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FRANKLIN/CLINTON NY COUNTIES AT
05Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 30-40 POPS ACROSS NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SOUTH OF
A BTV-1V4 LINE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NEXT 1-3 HRS...AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE AS A RESULT OF THE HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH LOWS NEAR 70F AT BTV AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS S-SW 5-8 MPH WILL
GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW









000
FXUS61 KBTV 010217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO CONT TO MENTION CHC
POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A POTSDAM TO PLATTSBURGH TO MORRISVILLE
LINE THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CRNT RADAR SHOWS CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT 5H VORT MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WL CONT TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.05 AND 0.15". OTHERWISE...STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER HERE OR THERE ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
VT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WL BE VERY LIMITED. GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC
DWPTS...EXPECT AREAS OF BR/FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS AFT MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WL SLOWLY FALL BACK INTO THE 60S WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW












000
FXUS61 KBTV 010012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 707 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO CRNT FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FIRST I HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER AFT 00Z TONIGHT...AS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY IS
DECREASING QUICKLY ACRS OUR CWA. MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OUT TWD THE
SLV...ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...BUT HAVE
NOTICED VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING WITH THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
THIS EVENING...WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING BEST PRECIP ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WINDSOR COUNTY. VSF DID PICK UP A QUICK 0.12 OF PRECIP
IN THE PAST...BUT GIVEN CRNT TRENDS THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION
BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACRS
OUR REGION...EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO CONT ACRS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND THE DACKS...WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. HAVE INCREASED SFC DWPTS IN HRLY GRIDS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH MANY READINGS IN THE U60S TO L70S ACRS OUR
REGION...MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY OUTSIDE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWS...
FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL
ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT
OF 15-20 KT HYDRO CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER
CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES
EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED
LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN
WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW









000
FXUS61 KBTV 010012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 707 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO CRNT FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FIRST I HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER AFT 00Z TONIGHT...AS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY IS
DECREASING QUICKLY ACRS OUR CWA. MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OUT TWD THE
SLV...ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...BUT HAVE
NOTICED VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING WITH THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
THIS EVENING...WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING BEST PRECIP ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WINDSOR COUNTY. VSF DID PICK UP A QUICK 0.12 OF PRECIP
IN THE PAST...BUT GIVEN CRNT TRENDS THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION
BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACRS
OUR REGION...EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO CONT ACRS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND THE DACKS...WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. HAVE INCREASED SFC DWPTS IN HRLY GRIDS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH MANY READINGS IN THE U60S TO L70S ACRS OUR
REGION...MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY OUTSIDE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWS...
FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL
ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT
OF 15-20 KT HYDRO CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER
CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES
EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED
LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN
WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 312314
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 707 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO CRNT FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FIRST I HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER AFT 00Z TONIGHT...AS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY IS
DECREASING QUICKLY ACRS OUR CWA. MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OUT TWD THE
SLV...ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...BUT HAVE
NOTICED VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING WITH THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
THIS EVENING...WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING BEST PRECIP ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WINDSOR COUNTY. VSF DID PICK UP A QUICK 0.12 OF PRECIP
IN THE PAST...BUT GIVEN CRNT TRENDS THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION
BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACRS
OUR REGION...EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO CONT ACRS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND THE DACKS...WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. HAVE INCREASED SFC DWPTS IN HRLY GRIDS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH MANY READINGS IN THE U60S TO L70S ACRS OUR
REGION...MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY OUTSIDE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWS...
FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL
ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT
OF 15-20 KT HYDRO CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER
CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES
EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED
LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN
WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW











000
FXUS61 KBTV 311939
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5 SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER
BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT OF 15-20 KT HYDRO
CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG
ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING
MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW/EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311939
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5 SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER
BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT OF 15-20 KT HYDRO
CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG
ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING
MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW/EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 744 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A
SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AFFECTED NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE
IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST.
THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE
OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
(12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY
LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS
WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL
ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN
MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 744 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A
SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AFFECTED NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE
IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST.
THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE
OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
(12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY
LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS
WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL
ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN
MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A
SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT
07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CONSISTENT MESOSCALE MODEL
RUNS...WILL LIKELY SEE ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
IMPACT NRN NY ACROSS NRN VT THRU MID-MORNING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO
1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS
DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 310748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A
SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT
07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CONSISTENT MESOSCALE MODEL
RUNS...WILL LIKELY SEE ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
IMPACT NRN NY ACROSS NRN VT THRU MID-MORNING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO
1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS
DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WILL PRODUCE VFR AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 310748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A
SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT
07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CONSISTENT MESOSCALE MODEL
RUNS...WILL LIKELY SEE ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
IMPACT NRN NY ACROSS NRN VT THRU MID-MORNING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO
1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS
DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WILL PRODUCE VFR AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 310544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...LEADING AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND NRN FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES NEXT 1-3 HRS PER RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF AND
INCREASED THUNDER WORDING ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE A QUICK 0.2-0.3"
IN SPOTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DRY WITH AN ISOLD
SHOWER POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH...LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (15-25
KTS SUSTAINED OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT). WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
WIND...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...AND LOCALLY NEAR 70F AT
BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SEVERE
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIR MASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AT OR ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NIGHT-SAT TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WILL PRODUCE VFR AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 310544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...LEADING AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND NRN FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES NEXT 1-3 HRS PER RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF AND
INCREASED THUNDER WORDING ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE A QUICK 0.2-0.3"
IN SPOTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DRY WITH AN ISOLD
SHOWER POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH...LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (15-25
KTS SUSTAINED OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT). WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
WIND...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...AND LOCALLY NEAR 70F AT
BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SEVERE
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIR MASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AT OR ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NIGHT-SAT TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WILL PRODUCE VFR AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 310515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...LEADING AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND NRN FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES NEXT 1-3 HRS PER RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF AND
INCREASED THUNDER WORDING ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE A QUICK 0.2-0.3"
IN SPOTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DRY WITH AN ISOLD
SHOWER POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH...LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (15-25
KTS SUSTAINED OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT). WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
WIND...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...AND LOCALLY NEAR 70F AT
BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 310159
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT SATURDAY...1ST LINE OF SHOWERS DISSIPATED ACRS
CENTRAL ST LAWRENCE COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ARE LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN NY.
THESE WL IMPACT THE SAME AREAS OF SLV BTWN 1030 AND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AFT
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR AND LOCAL 4KM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING INTO A BROKEN LINE AFT MIDNIGHT AND IMPACTING THE CPV
BTWN 09-12Z...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS THRU MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE TO LIKELY FROM WEST TO
EAST AFT MIDNIGHT TO COVER BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP. HAVE
NOTED LLVL JET INCREASING ACRS OUR REGION WITH CXX 925MB WINDS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT MIXING TO THE SFC HAS ONLY OCCURRED OVER THE
WARMER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS. THINKING A FEW GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CPV OVERNIGHT...GIVEN STRENGTH OF JET.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U50S NEK TO U60S
CPV/SLV...WITH MAYBE A FEW UHI AREAS NEAR 70F FOR AN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 310159
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT SATURDAY...1ST LINE OF SHOWERS DISSIPATED ACRS
CENTRAL ST LAWRENCE COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ARE LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN NY.
THESE WL IMPACT THE SAME AREAS OF SLV BTWN 1030 AND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AFT
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR AND LOCAL 4KM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING INTO A BROKEN LINE AFT MIDNIGHT AND IMPACTING THE CPV
BTWN 09-12Z...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS THRU MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE TO LIKELY FROM WEST TO
EAST AFT MIDNIGHT TO COVER BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP. HAVE
NOTED LLVL JET INCREASING ACRS OUR REGION WITH CXX 925MB WINDS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT MIXING TO THE SFC HAS ONLY OCCURRED OVER THE
WARMER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS. THINKING A FEW GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CPV OVERNIGHT...GIVEN STRENGTH OF JET.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U50S NEK TO U60S
CPV/SLV...WITH MAYBE A FEW UHI AREAS NEAR 70F FOR AN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 310016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
816 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SATURDAY...EARLY UPDATE TO FCST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS ACRS THE SLV. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO.
USING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL...PLACES THIS ACTIVITY ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AROUND 00Z AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY BY 01Z. LATEST 21Z HRRR MODELS SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING PRECIP THE BEST AND SHOWS THIS AREA QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SLV...BUT WEAKENING AS BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED ACRS WESTERN NY. WL MENTION CHC POPS WITH THIS SECONDARY
WARM FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LLVL JET. THESE SHOWERS WL RESULT IN A
JUMP IN SFC DWPTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY
TONIGHT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO THE CPV AFT 06Z.
THINKING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFT MIDNIGHT ACRS
NORTHERN NY AND MOVE INTO THE CPV TWD 09Z. THIS IS ALL COVERED IN
CRNT FCST WITH CHC POPS...INCREASING TO LIKELY TOWARD DAY BREAK.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ELEVATED ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL JET...SO
ONLY SCHC FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WL HOLD IN THE U50S NEK TO U60S SLV/CPV...ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DWPTS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE HUMIDITY WL CONT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CPV. EXPECT IT
TO FEEL PRETTY HUMID BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...ACRS MOST OF THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5
HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE
(60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 310016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
816 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SATURDAY...EARLY UPDATE TO FCST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS ACRS THE SLV. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO.
USING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL...PLACES THIS ACTIVITY ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AROUND 00Z AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY BY 01Z. LATEST 21Z HRRR MODELS SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING PRECIP THE BEST AND SHOWS THIS AREA QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SLV...BUT WEAKENING AS BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED ACRS WESTERN NY. WL MENTION CHC POPS WITH THIS SECONDARY
WARM FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LLVL JET. THESE SHOWERS WL RESULT IN A
JUMP IN SFC DWPTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY
TONIGHT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO THE CPV AFT 06Z.
THINKING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFT MIDNIGHT ACRS
NORTHERN NY AND MOVE INTO THE CPV TWD 09Z. THIS IS ALL COVERED IN
CRNT FCST WITH CHC POPS...INCREASING TO LIKELY TOWARD DAY BREAK.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ELEVATED ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL JET...SO
ONLY SCHC FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WL HOLD IN THE U50S NEK TO U60S SLV/CPV...ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DWPTS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE HUMIDITY WL CONT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CPV. EXPECT IT
TO FEEL PRETTY HUMID BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...ACRS MOST OF THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5
HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE
(60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 302252
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SATURDAY...EARLY UPDATE TO FCST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS ACRS THE SLV. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO.
USING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL...PLACES THIS ACTIVITY ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AROUND 00Z AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY BY 01Z. LATEST 21Z HRRR MODELS SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING PRECIP THE BEST AND SHOWS THIS AREA QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SLV...BUT WEAKENING AS BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED ACRS WESTERN NY. WL MENTION CHC POPS WITH THIS SECONDARY
WARM FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LLVL JET. THESE SHOWERS WL RESULT IN A
JUMP IN SFC DWPTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY
TONIGHT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO THE CPV AFT 06Z.
THINKING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFT MIDNIGHT ACRS
NORTHERN NY AND MOVE INTO THE CPV TWD 09Z. THIS IS ALL COVERED IN
CRNT FCST WITH CHC POPS...INCREASING TO LIKELY TOWARD DAY BREAK.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ELEVATED ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL JET...SO
ONLY SCHC FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WL HOLD IN THE U50S NEK TO U60S SLV/CPV...ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DWPTS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE HUMIDITY WL CONT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CPV. EXPECT IT
TO FEEL PRETTY HUMID BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...ACRS MOST OF THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5
HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE
(60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 301942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER SEASONAL
NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING
SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN
AND SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO
HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE (60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB
LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 301942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER SEASONAL
NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING
SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN
AND SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO
HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE (60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB
LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER SEASONAL
NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING
SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN
AND SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO
HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE (60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB
LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER SEASONAL
NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING
SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN
AND SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO
HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE (60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB
LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 301903
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS)
INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM.
STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301903
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS)
INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM.
STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 301730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS)
INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM.
STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 20-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO
WINDS MAY NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN
LAKE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 301730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS)
INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM.
STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 20-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO
WINDS MAY NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN
LAKE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301450
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS)
INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM.
STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET BY 06Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 13Z OR 14Z WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 20-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO
WINDS MAY NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN
LAKE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 301450
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS)
INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM.
STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET BY 06Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 13Z OR 14Z WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 20-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO
WINDS MAY NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN
LAKE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 731 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD
THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW
HUMIDITY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO
+16C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES.
LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET BY 06Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 13Z OR 14Z WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 20-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO
WINDS MAY NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN
LAKE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 301133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 731 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD
THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW
HUMIDITY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO
+16C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES.
LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET BY 06Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 13Z OR 14Z WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 20-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO
WINDS MAY NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN
LAKE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD
THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW
HUMIDITY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION...WITH VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S
TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH...BUT LOCALLY 15-25 MPH IN GUSTS
(AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET BY 06Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 13Z OR 14Z WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 15-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD
THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW
HUMIDITY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION...WITH VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S
TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH...BUT LOCALLY 15-25 MPH IN GUSTS
(AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET BY 06Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 13Z OR 14Z WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 15-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 300819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD
THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW
HUMIDITY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION...WITH VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S
TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH...BUT LOCALLY 15-25 MPH IN GUSTS
(AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. KSLK AND KMPV WILL HAVE PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z DUE TO VISIBILITY AND FOG. LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z
WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 15-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 300819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD
THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW
HUMIDITY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION...WITH VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S
TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH...BUT LOCALLY 15-25 MPH IN GUSTS
(AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. KSLK AND KMPV WILL HAVE PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z DUE TO VISIBILITY AND FOG. LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z
WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 15-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 300609
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ELONGATED VORT LOBES AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS NORTHERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO VT
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT WL INITIALLY FALL APART AS THEY
ENCOUNTER STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR EASTERN VT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CROSS
OVER VALUES. THINKING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL
RESULT IN MORE LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
DAYBREAK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 MPH BY 08-09Z. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. KSLK AND KMPV WILL HAVE PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z DUE TO VISIBILITY AND FOG. LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z
WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 300609
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ELONGATED VORT LOBES AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS NORTHERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO VT
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT WL INITIALLY FALL APART AS THEY
ENCOUNTER STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR EASTERN VT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CROSS
OVER VALUES. THINKING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL
RESULT IN MORE LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
DAYBREAK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 MPH BY 08-09Z. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. KSLK AND KMPV WILL HAVE PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z DUE TO VISIBILITY AND FOG. LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z
WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 300534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ELONGATED VORT LOBES AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS NORTHERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO VT
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT WL INITIALLY FALL APART AS THEY
ENCOUNTER STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR EASTERN VT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CROSS
OVER VALUES. THINKING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL
RESULT IN MORE LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
DAYBREAK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 MPH BY 08-09Z. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z-15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 300534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ELONGATED VORT LOBES AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS NORTHERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO VT
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT WL INITIALLY FALL APART AS THEY
ENCOUNTER STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR EASTERN VT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CROSS
OVER VALUES. THINKING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL
RESULT IN MORE LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
DAYBREAK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 MPH BY 08-09Z. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z-15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 300228
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1028 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ELONGATED VORT LOBES AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS NORTHERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WL SPREAD EAST INTO VT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WL INITIALLY FALL APART AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR
EASTERN VT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS
DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BLW CROSS OVER VALUES. THINKING CLOUDS
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ACRS THE
DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE DACKS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S SLK/NEK
TO M/U 50S CPV/SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z-15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 300228
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1028 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ELONGATED VORT LOBES AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT IS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS NORTHERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WL SPREAD EAST INTO VT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WL INITIALLY FALL APART AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR
EASTERN VT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS
DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BLW CROSS OVER VALUES. THINKING CLOUDS
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ACRS THE
DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE DACKS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S SLK/NEK
TO M/U 50S CPV/SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z-15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV











000
FXUS61 KBTV 292347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 734 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE MID LVL CLOUDS SOME ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THESE
CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE BY 10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M/U 50S.

PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z-15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 292347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 734 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE MID LVL CLOUDS SOME ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THESE
CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE BY 10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M/U 50S.

PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z-15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 292336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 734 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE MID LVL CLOUDS SOME ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THESE
CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE BY 10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M/U 50S.

PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 292336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 734 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND
INCREASE MID LVL CLOUDS SOME ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THESE
CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE BY 10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M/U 50S.

PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 291937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND
THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING.
THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN
EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE
FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM
ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE
T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND,
AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS
AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S
FOR VERMONT.

WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS
BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID
"WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C),
BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE
DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S
REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO
WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN
20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EARLY OVERCAST STRATUS THAT WAS
ONCE TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
EVOLVED INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS OF 70-75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO SHRINK OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX OUT AS INDICATED
BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. THUS
EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16Z
(NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SUN...SO
HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE
WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT
WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NERN VT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 291859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EARLY OVERCAST STRATUS THAT WAS
ONCE TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
EVOLVED INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS OF 70-75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO SHRINK OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX OUT AS INDICATED
BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. THUS
EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16Z
(NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SUN...SO
HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE
WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT
WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NERN VT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 291734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EARLY OVERCAST STRATUS THAT WAS
ONCE TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
EVOLVED INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS OF 70-75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO SHRINK OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX OUT AS INDICATED
BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. THUS
EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16Z
(NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SUN...SO
HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE
WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT
WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NERN VT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EARLY OVERCAST STRATUS THAT WAS
ONCE TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
EVOLVED INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS OF 70-75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO SHRINK OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX OUT AS INDICATED
BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. THUS
EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16Z
(NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SUN...SO
HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE
WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT
WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NERN VT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY)
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE
VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED.
AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY
06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...TEAM BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EARLY OVERCAST STRATUS THAT WAS
ONCE TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
EVOLVED INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS OF 70-75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO SHRINK OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX OUT AS INDICATED
BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. THUS
EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16Z
(NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SUN...SO
HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE
WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT
WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NERN VT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 291645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EARLY OVERCAST STRATUS THAT WAS
ONCE TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE
EVOLVED INTO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS OF 70-75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 954 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS BEEN BEGINNING TO SHRINK OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. ALSO STARTING TO SEE OTHER AREAS MIX OUT AS INDICATED
BY DAYTIME CUMULUS FORMING IN PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT. THUS
EXPECTING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16Z
(NOON). LATEST RAP/HRRR/4KM NAM SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY IN AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SUN...SO
HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE
WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT
WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NERN VT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV








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