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000
FXUS61 KBTV 252319
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare
outside a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm across northern
counties. High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and
seasonably warm temperatures expected. Thereafter, warm and
summerlike weather continues into the Holiday Weekend along with
moderate humidity levels. While much of the period will be dry,
there will be a daily threat of afternoon, early evening showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 656 PM EDT Wednesday...updated forecast to decrease areal
coverage of showers and thunderstorms and remove mention of gusty
winds. water vapor shows deep layer aloft across our
region...which has suppressed any convective development. best
combination of dynamics associated with tail of 5h vort and some
limited 850 to 500mb moisture will be across northern vt into the
northeast kingdom through 03z. have continued to mention chance
pops with slight chance of thunder...as current radar shows
two weak cells approaching the international border. utilizing the
distance arrival tool has them approaching our border by 00z. will
continue to monitor for potential lightning...but so far nothing
noted. rest of forecast in good shape.

By later tonight skies gradually trend mostly clear and winds
become light as surface high pressure returns to the region. Some
patchy fog will be possible in any areas that do receive rainfall
this evening, with highest probabilities across northeastern VT.
Low temperatures a blend of bias-corrected and MOS-based guidance,
generally from 45 to 55 with some variability.

On Thursday surface high pressure returns to the region along with
mainly sunny skies and light winds. Model-averaged 925 mb
temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little
airmass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper
70s to lower 80s for most spots. By later in the day a gradual
increase in moisture is expected across the western portions of the
forecast area in northern NY. Some model differences on how robust
this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the
ridge axis transitioning to our east over time.  At this point have
introduced lower end chances of precipitation from the Adirondacks
west into the southern SLV from mid-afternoon onward to account for
this uncertainty. Regardless, most of the day will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...A warm front will traverse across
the North Country Thursday night through Friday, producing showers
and thunderstorms with the best chance for thunderstorms occurring
Friday afternoon. PWATS increase to 1-1.5 inches which could help
showers and thunderstorms create periods of heavy rain. NAM BUFKIT
forecast sounding profiles show CAPE values greater than 1000J/kg
with enough daytime heating to reach convective temperatures. This
along with possible elevated mixed layer that will move across the
St Lawrence Valley and Northern tier of CWA support potential for
convection on Friday. Caveat being lack of lift on Friday, so will
mainly rely on heating and moist atmosphere.

Showers, clouds and warmer air filtering in will keep min
temperatures Thursday night in the 50s to low 60s. 925mb
temperatures increase into the low 20s on Friday, resulting in
maxes in the 70s to mid 80s.

Friday night will see showers and thunderstorms diminish with
nocturnal cooling settling in and ridging aloft begins to build to
our south and east. Min temperatures will remain above normal,
generally in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled weather expected
throughout the long term as we remain on the periphery of the
upper ridge. This will result in chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon, throughout the
holiday weekend. Max temperatures on Saturday will be in the 80s
with some spots in the southern valleys nearing 90 when the upper
ridge axis begins to crest over the region.

On Sunday, upper level disturbances will move into the region
keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms. While upstream,
upper level shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region,
reflected at the surface as a gradually strengthening low pressure
system. This system will drag a cold front across the area Monday
with showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, models
diverge on how dry conditions will be.

Overall, above normal temperatures continue with summer-like
conditions...aka showers and thunderstorm potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR expected through the period. A weak
frontal boundary has passed through the region and winds have
shifted to northwesterly at 05-10 knots and will go light and
variable overnight before resuming lightly out of the north
friday morning. There is a small window for potential fog at SLK
from 09-11z and possible IFR conditions along with that.
Confidence is not high at this time so have gone with a MVFR in
the taf to reflect the potential.

Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday...

18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday
time frame.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/MV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251900
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
300 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare
outside a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm across northern
counties. High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and
seasonably warm temperatures expected. Thereafter, warm and
summerlike weather continues into the Holiday Weekend along with
moderate humidity levels. While much of the period will be dry,
there will be a daily threat of afternoon, early evening showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains on track as we
progress toward the late afternoon/early evening hours. The tail
end of a weak surface trough/front is in the process of dropping
south into our northern counties as of 300 pm with a modest wind
shift to the west/northwest behind the boundary across neighboring
southern QE/ON. The front will cross the region this evening with
little fanfare, though weak instability, combined with increasing
0-6km shear and some PVA from a shortwave passing off to our
northeast may be just enough to spark a few showers/isolated
storms along and north of a KSLK to K1V4 line through 8-9pm or so.
Given our deep boundary layer this afternoon (to 10 kft) any storm
that does develop will have the potential to produce locally gusty
winds and will continue this idea through early evening. The
threat is conditional however. By later tonight skies gradually
trend mostly clear and winds become light as surface high pressure
returns to the region. Some patchy fog will be possible in any
areas that do receive rainfall this evening, with highest
probabilities across northeastern VT. Low temperatures a blend of
bias-corrected and MOS-based guidance, generally from 45 to 55
with some variability.

On Thursday surface high pressure returns to the region along with
mainly sunny skies and light winds. Model-averaged 925 mb
temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little
airmass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper
70s to lower 80s for most spots. By later in the day a gradual
increase in moisture is expected across the western portions of the
forecast area in northern NY. Some model differences on how robust
this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the
ridge axis transitioning to our east over time.  At this point have
introduced lower end chances of precipitation from the Adirondacks
west into the southern SLV from mid-afternoon onward to account for
this uncertainty. Regardless, most of the day will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Will have showers move into the area
thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area.
warm temperatures and showers will continue into friday.
thunderstorms will be possible friday afternoon. minimum
temperatures thursday night will only drop into the lower 60s...
then max temperatures on friday will be in the upper 80s. very
warm upper level ridge in place along with warm air advection from
warm front will be the main players with the showers and warm
temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...models continue to diverge quiet a
bit for the extended portion of the forecast. warm temperatures
continue for friday and saturday with large ridge still in place.
they should be the warmest couple of days in the entire 8 day
forecast...both days feature afternoon showers and thunderstorms
also. strong high pressure east of the region on sunday will
ridge back towards the north country and push a backdoor cold
front across our area. this will bring cooler temperatures for
sunday into the beginning of next week...and also another chance
for showers on sunday. for monday and tuesday temperatures will
trend back towards seasonal normals with a low passing north of
our area and showers spreading across the north country.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR expected through the period. Weak
frontal boundary passing through the region this afternoon will
foster a wind shift to northwesterly in the 18-00Z time frame,
after which winds trend light and variable overnight into Thursday
morning. Along the front, just an outside chance of a
shower/thunderstorm at northern terminals through 01Z or so.
Threat is conditional at this time and confidence is low that any
storm will discretely affect any terminal. If it were to occur,
brief gusty winds and MVFR visibilities would be possible. After
12Z Thursday VFR continues under light northerly flow.

Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday...

18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat apears to occur in the Saturday through Monday
time frame.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251426
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1026 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures can be expected today through the entire
holiday weekend as a general southwest flow aloft becomes
established. A frontal boundary will move into the area this
afternoon and enhance the potential for thunderstorms...some of
which could produce gusty winds. Dry weather is expected on
Thursday...but increasing moisture through the Memorial Day weekend
will combine with the above normal temperatures to bring about
chances for afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1026 AM EDT Wednesday...Current forecast remains on track
and only some nominal adjustments to hourly temperatures/dewpoints
were needed to shore up short term trends. Have a great day. Prior
discussion follows.

Prior discussion...
Going forecast in good shape with only some minor tweaks to
temperatures and dew points to match current conditions.
Otherwise...relatively quiet weather is expected this
morning...but as a cold front moves down out of Canada later today
through the first part of tonight...the threat for thunderstorms
will exist. The best potential for storms still looks to be north
of a Saranac Lake to Saint Johnsbury line. In addition...dry air
in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help to create an
inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher based
thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty winds.
Will go ahead and include this in the forecast for this afternoon
and evening. Any showers and storms should be ending by midnight.
High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

The front will exit the area tonight as northwest flow aloft
develops. As mentioned earlier...convection should end before
midnight with quiet weather expected the rest of the night.
Northwest flow aloft prevails on Thursday...but eventually back to
the southwest late in the day. Dry weather is expected along with a
good deal of sunshine. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little
cooler than today...thus looking at high temperatures in the mid 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Will have showers move into the area
thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area.
warm temperatures and showers will continue into friday.
thunderstorms will be possible friday afternoon. minimum
temperatures thursday night will only drop into the lower 60s...
then max temperatures on friday will be in the upper 80s. very
warm upper level ridge in place along with warm air advection from
warm front will be the main players with the showers and warm
temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...models continue to diverge quiet a
bit for the extended portion of the forecast. warm temperatures
continue for friday and saturday with large ridge still in place.
they should be the warmest couple of days in the entire 8 day
forecast...both days feature afternoon showers and thunderstorms
also. strong high pressure east of the region on sunday will
ridge back towards the north country and push a backdoor cold
front across our area. this will bring cooler temperatures for
sunday into the beginning of next week...and also another chance
for showers on sunday. for monday and tuesday temperatures will
trend back towards seasonal normals with a low passing north of
our area and showers spreading across the north country.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. still some
fg at mpv and rut early this morning. think that fog should lift
by about 10 am. then, VFR continues with mainly clear skies
through 18z. There will be an increasing threat of showers and a
few storms after 18Z an have vcsh mentioned at this time. showers
will end with loss of daytime heating later on this evening.

Outlook 12Z Thursday through Sunday...

12Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...JMG/Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251120
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
720 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures can be expected today through the entire
holiday weekend as a general southwest flow aloft becomes
established. A frontal boundary will move into the area this
afternoon and enhance the potential for thunderstorms...some of
which could produce gusty winds. Dry weather is expected on
Thursday...but increasing moisture through the Memorial Day weekend
will combine with the above normal temperatures to bring about
chances for afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 654 AM EDT Wednesday...Going forecast in good shape with
only some minor tweaks to temperatures and dew points to match
current conditions. Otherwise...relatively quiet weather is
expected this morning...but as a cold front moves down out of
Canada later today through the first part of tonight...the threat
for thunderstorms will exist. The best potential for storms still
looks to be north of a Saranac Lake to Saint Johnsbury line. In
addition...dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help
to create an inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher
based thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty
winds. Will go ahead and include this in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening. Any showers and storms should be ending by
midnight. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

The front will exit the area tonight as northwest flow aloft
develops. As mentioned earlier...convection should end before
midnight with quiet weather expected the rest of the night.
Northwest flow aloft prevails on Thursday...but eventually back to
the southwest late in the day. Dry weather is expected along with a
good deal of sunshine. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little
cooler than today...thus looking at high temperatures in the mid 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Will have showers move into the area
thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area.
warm temperatures and showers will continue into friday.
thunderstorms will be possible friday afternoon. minimum
temperatures thursday night will only drop into the lower 60s...
then max temperatures on friday will be in the upper 80s. very
warm upper level ridge in place along with warm air advection from
warm front will be the main players with the showers and warm
temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...models continue to diverge quiet a
bit for the extended portion of the forecast. warm temperatures
continue for friday and saturday with large ridge still in place.
they should be the warmest couple of days in the entire 8 day
forecast...both days feature afternoon showers and thunderstorms
also. strong high pressure east of the region on sunday will
ridge back towards the north country and push a backdoor cold
front across our area. this will bring cooler temperatures for
sunday into the beginning of next week...and also another chance
for showers on sunday. for monday and tuesday temperatures will
trend back towards seasonal normals with a low passing north of
our area and showers spreading across the north country.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. still some
fg at mpv and rut early this morning. think that fog should lift
by about 10 am. then, VFR continues with mainly clear skies
through 18z. There will be an increasing threat of showers and a
few storms after 18Z an have vcsh mentioned at this time. showers
will end with loss of daytime heating later on this evening.

Outlook 12Z Thursday through Sunday...

12Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250842
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
442 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures can be expected today through the entire
holiday weekend as a general southwest flow aloft becomes
established. A frontal boundary will move into the area this
afternoon and enhance the potential for thunderstorms...some of
which could produce gusty winds. Dry weather is expected on
Thursday...but increasing moisture through the Memorial Day weekend
will combine with the above normal temperatures to bring about
chances for afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Relatively quiet weather is expected
this morning...but as a cold front moves down out of Canada later
today through the first part of tonight...the threat for
thunderstorms will exist. The best potential for storms still
looks to be north of a Saranac Lake to Saint Johnsbury line. In
addition...dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help
to create an inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher
based thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty
winds. Will go ahead and include this in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening. Any showers and storms should be ending by
midnight. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

The front will exit the area tonight as northwest flow aloft
develops. As mentioned earlier...convection should end before
midnight with quiet weather expected the rest of the night.
Northwest flow aloft prevails on Thursday...but eventually back to
the southwest late in the day. Dry weather is expected along with a
good deal of sunshine. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little
cooler than today...thus looking at high temperatures in the mid 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Will have showers move into the area
thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area.
warm temperatures and showers will continue into friday.
thunderstorms will be possible friday afternoon. minimum
temperatures thursday night will only drop into the lower 60s...
then max temperatures on friday will be in the upper 80s. very
warm upper level ridge in place along with warm air advection from
warm front will be the main players with the showers and warm
temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...models continue to diverge quiet a
bit for the extended portion of the forecast. warm temperatures
continue for friday and saturday with large ridge still in place.
they should be the warmest couple of days in the entire 8 day
forecast. strong high pressure east of the region on sunday will
ridge back towards the north country and push a backdoor cold
front across our area. this will bring cooler temperatures for
sunday into the beginning of next week...and also another chance
for showers to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. clearing
skies and light winds across the area overnight. will see some br
at times for mpv and rut after soaking rains today left abundant
low level moisture. After 12Z, VFR continues with mainly clear
skies through 18z. There will be an increasing threat of showers
and a few storms after 18Z an have vcsh mentioned at this time.

Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday...

06Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250808
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
408 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures can be expected today through the entire
holiday weekend as a general southwest flow aloft becomes
established. A frontal boundary will move into the area this
afternoon and enhance the potential for thunderstorms...some of
which could produce gusty winds. Dry weather is expected on
Thursday...but increasing moisture through the Memorial Day weekend
will combine with the above normal temperatures to bring about
chances for afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Relatively quiet weather is expected
this morning...but as a cold front moves down out of Canada later
today through the first part of tonight...the threat for
thunderstorms will exist. The best potential for storms still
looks to be north of a Saranac Lake to Saint Johnsbury line. In
addition...dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help
to create an inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher
based thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty
winds. Will go ahead and include this in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening. Any showers and storms should be ending by
midnight. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

The front will exit the area tonight as northwest flow aloft
develops. As mentioned earlier...convection should end before
midnight with quiet weather expected the rest of the night.
Northwest flow aloft prevails on Thursday...but eventually back to
the southwest late in the day. Dry weather is expected along with a
good deal of sunshine. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little
cooler than today...thus looking at high temperatures in the mid 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday evening will see some
lingering showers as an upper level shortwave continues to affect
the North Country. Showers will exit south and east as the
shortwave shifts into the Gulf of Maine. Drying trend for the rest
of Wednesday night with mild temperatures in the mid 40s to mid
50s, as ridging aloft builds into the region. On Thursday, 925mb
temperatures increase to the upper teens to near 20C. Southerly
flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will accompany
maximum temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will be interrupted by a
weakening upper level shortwave moving from west to east Thursday
night. This will result in increasing clouds with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. The mid-upper level pattern transitions
to keep the North Country in the periphery of ridging which looks
to allow a chance of convective showers and thunderstorms every
day through the weekend.

There is the potential for a cold front to move through the region
over the weekend, which could lead to a break in precip and slightly
cooler temperatures. Overall, much uncertainty exists in the long
term due to more zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to be
above normal throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. clearing
skies and light winds across the area overnight. will see some br
at times for mpv and rut after soaking rains today left abundant
low level moisture. After 12Z, VFR continues with mainly clear
skies through 18z. There will be an increasing threat of showers
and a few storms after 18Z an have vcsh mentioned at this time.

Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday...

06Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Neiles





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250009
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
809 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end this evening
as upper low pressure slowly pulls away to the north and east. A
weak cold front will push into the region by Wednesday afternoon
with a renewed threat of showers and storms, especially across
northern counties.  Behind this system, building warmth and humidity
will bring the first summerlike conditions to the region for the
remainder of the work week and into the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 721 PM EDT Tuesday...minor update to shrink areal coverage
of rain showers with embedded rumbles of thunder based on radar
trends. latest data shows line of showers extending from near 1v4
to marshfield to near rutland with some lightning activity noted
near marshfield. thinking the threat for convection will continue
for another hour or two...but once the sunsets...stability will
increase from the loss of surface heating and showers will
dissipate. still anticipating some areas of patchy
fog...especially in areas that received rainfall today across
central/eastern vt. otherwise...a pleasant evening is expected
across the champlain valley and northern ny with temps slowly
falling back into the 50s and 60s by midnight.

Upper level low pressure continues to pivot while lifting slowly
northeast along the New England coast this afternoon. Backside
deformation combined with spoke of deeper moisture and boundary
layer convergence/weak instability will promote scattered
showers/isolated storms through early evening across our central
and eastern VT counties, with dry weather expected across northern
NY. By later this evening/tonight any lingering clouds east will
generally dissipate as the low pressure pulls further east,
leaving a mainly clear night across the area from roughly midnight
onward. Given wet ground from today`s rainfall, favorable
hydrolapse profiles and light boundary layer winds patchy mist/fog
will also be likely across our southern and southeastern VT
counties. Low temperatures a blend of available MOS and bias-
corrected data offering values generally in the 40s to lower 50s.

On Wednesday short range models remain consistent in showing a weak
surface trough pushing into the region by the afternoon hours. Some
rather distinct differences among latest MET/MAV MOS output
regarding rain chances with this feature.  However as steep low
level lapse rates interact with a slight increase in boundary layer
moisture and nominal instability we should see scattered showers and
a few storms develop across southern QE/ON and progress into our
northern and central counties by mid to late afternoon.  No severe
weather is expected, but enough 0-6 km shear combined with the
deeply mixed boundary layer and passage of a northern stream H5
vorticity center to allow for a few storms to produce brief gusty
winds and perhaps some small hail.  Highest confidence on this
occurring would be from the Adirondacks north and east across the
northern half of VT in the 3-9 pm time frame.  Latest blended 925 mb
thermal progs support seasonally warm temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s, perhaps a few mid-80s across the Champlain
Valley into southern VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday evening will see some
lingering showers as an upper level shortwave continues to affect
the North Country. Showers will exit south and east as the
shortwave shifts into the Gulf of Maine. Drying trend for the rest
of Wednesday night with mild temperaturesin the mid 40s to mid
50s, as ridging aloft builds into the region. On Thursday, 925mb
temperatures increase to the upper teens to near 20C. Southerly
flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will accompany
maximum temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will be interupted by a
weakening upper level shortwave moving from west to east Thursday
night. This will result in increasing clouds with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. The mid-upper level pattern transitions
to keep the North Country in the periphery of ridging which looks
to allow a chance of convective showers and thunderstorms every
day through the weekend.

There is the potential for a cold front to move through the region
over the weekend, which could lead to a break in precip and slightly
cooler temperatures. Overall, much uncertainty exists in the long
term due to more zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to be
above normal throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. clearing
skies and light winds across central/eastern and southern vt that
witnessed rain showers this afternoon have the best chance for
mvfr/ifr and possibly lifr in radiational fog between 07-13z wed
which for taf sites means kmpv and to lesser extent krut as
climatologial se wind at 5-7 kts may prevent lifr/ifr. After 12Z
Wednesday, VFR continues with mainly clear skies through 18z.
There will be an increasing threat of showers and a few storms
after 18Z.

Outlook 00Z Thursday through Sunday...

00Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms, especially on

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241921
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end this evening
as upper low pressure slowly pulls away to the north and east. A
weak cold front will push into the region by Wednesday afternoon
with a renewed threat of showers and storms, especially across
northern counties.  Behind this system, building warmth and humidity
will bring the first summerlike conditions to the region for the
remainder of the work week and into the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Upper level low pressure continues to
pivot while lifting slowly northeast along the New England coast
this afternoon. Backside deformation combined with spoke of deeper
moisture and boundary layer convergence/weak instability will
promote scattered showers/isolated storms through early evening
across our central and eastern VT counties, with dry weather
expected across northern NY. By later this evening/tonight any
lingering clouds east will generally dissipate as the low pressure
pulls further east, leaving a mainly clear night across the area
from roughly midnight onward. Given wet ground from today`s
rainfall, favorable hydrolapse profiles and light boundary layer
winds patchy mist/fog will also be likely across our southern and
southeastern VT counties. Low temperatures a blend of available
MOS and bias-corrected data offering values generally in the 40s
to lower 50s.

On Wednesday short range models remain consistent in showing a weak
surface trough pushing into the region by the afternoon hours. Some
rather distinct differences among latest MET/MAV MOS output
regarding rain chances with this feature.  However as steep low
level lapse rates interact with a slight increase in boundary layer
moisture and nominal instability we should see scattered showers and
a few storms develop across southern QE/ON and progress into our
northern and central counties by mid to late afternoon.  No severe
weather is expected, but enough 0-6 km shear combined with the
deeply mixed boundary layer and passage of a northern stream H5
vorticity center to allow for a few storms to produce brief gusty
winds and perhaps some small hail.  Highest confidence on this
occurring would be from the Adirondacks north and east across the
northern half of VT in the 3-9 pm time frame.  Latest blended 925 mb
thermal progs support seasonally warm temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s, perhaps a few mid-80s across the Champlain
Valley into southern VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday evening will see some
lingering showers as an upper level shortwave continues to affect
the North Country. Showers will exit south and east as the
shortwave shifts into the Gulf of Maine. Drying trend for the rest
of Wednesday night with mild temperaturesin the mid 40s to mid
50s, as ridging aloft builds into the region. On Thursday, 925mb
temperatures increase to the upper teens to near 20C. Southerly
flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will accompany
maximum temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will be interupted by a
weakening upper level shortwave moving from west to east Thursday
night. This will result in increasing clouds with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. The mid-upper level pattern transitions
to keep the North Country in the periphery of ridging which looks
to allow a chance of convective showers and thunderstorms every
day through the weekend.

There is the potential for a cold front to move through the region
over the weekend, which could lead to a break in precip and slightly
cooler temperatures. Overall, much uncertainty exists in the long
term due to more zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to be
above normal throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the period. SCT/BKN mid
level clouds and spotty showers/isolated thunder possible at
KRUT/KMPV terminals through 00Z, otherwise dry weather is expected
with light and variable terrain-driven/lake breezes less than 10
kts expected. After 00Z VFR continues with light winds. Increasing
confidence of patchy IFR/LIFR in BR/FG at KMPV/KRUT in the 06-12Z
time frame owing to wet ground from today`s rainfall adding low
level moisture to the surface layer. After 12Z Wednesday, VFR
continues with mainly clear skies. There will be an increasing
threat of showers and a few storms after 18Z, but this is beyond
the forecast at this point.

Outlook 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...

18Z Wed through 02Z Thu...VFR with scattered showers/storms,
mainly at northern terminals. Any heavier shower/storm may produce
brief IFR/MVFR visibilities and enhanced turbulence.

02Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms, especially on

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241726
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
126 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system just off the mid-Atlantic coast
will move northeast today and reach eastern Maine tonight. This
will bring clouds to the area along with the threat of showers
across Vermont and parts of the northern Adirondacks. Dry weather
is expected Wednesday morning...but then an upper level
disturbance will move across the area Wednesday afternoon and
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the North Country.
Above normal temperatures are expected today and Wednesday with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 953 AM EDT Tuesday...Minor updates to winds/pops based off
current radar/observational trends, otherwise current forecast on
track. Steadier area of showers pivoting across southern VT will
tend to morph into a broader area of scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms across our VT counties later this afternoon/early
evening. High temperatures appear right on track per latest
modelled 925 mb thermal progs. Have a great day.

Prior discussion from 653 AM EDT Tuesday...
Overall forecast in good shape with just some minor cloud tweaks.
Otherwise...we will see a gradual increase in clouds across most
of the area today as an upper level low pressure system off the
mid-Atlantic coast moves slowly northeast. There will be a sharp
gradient of precipitation with this system across our area because
of the track of the system. Looking at most of northern New York
remaining dry today with a chance of showers across Essex County
New York and most of Vermont. There could even be an isolated
thunderstorm...mainly over southern and eastern Vermont. High
temperatures today will be in the mid 70s east to lower 80s west.

Upper level low continues to move northeast tonight and reach
eastern Main by Wednesday morning. Still looking at some lingering
showers over eastern Vermont tonight...but eventual dry conditions
develop over the entire area later tonight through Wednesday
morning. Eventually a shortwave trough moves across eastern Canada
and the Northeast Wednesday afternoon. This will increase dynamic
support over the area and bring a cold front into the region late
Wednesday afternoon. Instability should also increase ahead of the
front with highs getting into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Dew points
will also be increasing...but feel model forecasts are doing their
usual overforecast of dew points which in turns creates more
instability. Feel CAPE values will be closer to 500 J/kg versus
the model forecasts of 1000 J/kg. This should be sufficient to
enhance the potential for convection and during this time of
maximum instability...deep layer shear is increasing. Neither the
instability or shear are strong...but enough to increase the
potential for thunderstorms and have included in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 435 AM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday night and Thursday will
mainly be dry with an upper level ridge building over the North
country. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than seasonal
normals with warmer air reaching the area under aforementioned
ridge. 850 temps warm from around 11 C up to 15 C by Thursday
afternoon. There may be a few lingering showers during the first
half of Wednesday night across our Eastern zones as surface trof
and upper level short wave that brought some showers to the area
Wednesday afternoon both lift northeastward and away from the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 435 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night through
Tuesday...extended portion of the forecast will generally feature
a surface front situated somewhere very close to our area or even
right across our area. Location of this front will play a big
roll in our temperatures and chances for showers or convection.
Pattern will be fairly active due to this feature and have
mentioned several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the period as stationary/warm front
lifts north across our forecast area. Think that we will see
upper 80s in the warmer larger valleys of our forecast area but
even found some model guidance that pushes 90. Saturday and
Sunday front will remain very close to our area and depending
which side of the front we end up on will determine how warm we
are. Unfortunately the forecast gets lower confidence the further
out we get with not a lot of model agreement and boundary causing
big bust potential. Due to warm temps will see some surface
instability...especially Friday...bring chance for some boomers
to the region. Also have chance for convection mentioned
Saturday...then a cooler pattern will begin heading into early
next week and chance for convection wanes as we finally end up on
cooler side of aforementioned surface front/boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the period. SCT/BKN mid
level clouds and spotty showers/isolated thunder possible at
KRUT/KMPV terminals through 00Z, otherwise dry weather is expected
with light and variable terrain-driven/lake breezes less than 10
kts expected. After 00Z VFR continues with light winds. Increasing
confidence of patchy IFR/LIFR in BR/FG at KMPV/KRUT in the 06-12Z
time frame owing to wet ground from today`s rainfall adding low
level moisture to the surface layer. After 12Z Wednesday, VFR
continues with mainly clear skies. There will be an increasing
threat of showers and a few storms after 18Z, but this is beyond
the forecast at this point.

Outlook 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...

18Z Wed through 02Z Thu...VFR with scattered showers/storms,
mainly at northern terminals. Any heavier shower/storm may produce
brief IFR/MVFR visibilities and enhanced turbulence.

02Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms, especially on

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...JMG/Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240515
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
115 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide mainly clear and quiet weather tonight
with seasonably cool temperatures expected.  Moisture pivoting north
and west around departing offshore low pressure will bring a renewed
threat of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and early evening, mainly across Vermont.  Thereafter, the first
prolonged stretch of summerlike weather will build into the region
for the remainder of the week and into the Memorial Day weekend
with warm and increasingly humid conditions. While much of the
period will be dry, there will be a daily threat of scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1229 AM EDT Tuesday...Going forecast in good shape with
just some minor tweaks to the sky grids to match current pattern.
Otherwise should just see a slow increase in clouds across Vermont
over the next few hours. Lows will be in the 40s with some 30s in
the mountains.

On Tuesday short-term models continue to show good consistency
showing a filling upper low will drift northeasterly along the
northeastern seaboard through the day.  While the system is
essentially equivalent barotropic, weak deformation/moisture
band rotating into our region on the system`s northwestern periphery
should interact with some marginal instability and low level
convergence to spark scattered showers and a few storms, mainly from
the Champlain Valley east.  Here solid chance to low-end likely pops
(40-60%) will be maintained.  Further west, a mainly dry and sunnier
day is expected as this area will be removed from spoke of deeper
moisture and convergence.  High temperatures will be similar to today
from the northern Champlain Valley west into northern New York (upper
70s to lower 80s) with slightly cooler readings (70s) further east
where coverage of afternoon clouds and showers will be greater.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday... tuesday night: showers/isolated
t-storms mainly for vermont will quickly fade by mid evening with
the loss of heating. maybe a touch of patchy fog for late night,
though confidence not high enough to include that in the forecast.

wednesday: hi-res models are all pretty similar with overall
scenario of a shortwave and associated weak surface front pushing
into the region from the northwest. with temperatures well into
the 70s, we`ll have some surface based instability. models suggest
cape values of 500-1000 J/kg. nam also showing 0-6km shear of
roughly 30-40kt developing during the afternoon especially across
northern ny. looks like enough ingredients coming together for
convection to develop during the afternoon -- perhaps with semi-
organization to them. model radar reflectivity output from various
hi-res models suggests a broken line of t-storms will rapidly
develop mid-day across northern new york and push southeast and
then quickly fade by early evening as they reach southern vermont
where less instability will be available. have blended the
reflectivity outputs to form the basis of the PoP forecast for the
day. basically a 30-50% chance of t-storms for the afternoon,
especially across northern ny and extending into northern vermont.

thursday: will be a transition day. for most of us, it will be
dry and fairly sunny. perhaps some showers or isolated t-storm
across northern ny later in the day as a developing southwest flow
sends a surge of moisture our way. stuck with the model blend with
highs well into the 70s for the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...
looks like a summer pattern for the holiday weekend. that means
warmth, moderately humid and the chance for thunderstorms each
day. GFS and ECMWF are in "okay" agreement with the large scale
synoptics, however there will be a "back-door" front setting up
somewhere probably just to our east thanks to the still quite
chilly atlantic ocean. depending on how far inland this front will
push will greatly affect the weather we see. considerable
differences in this subtle but important detail in the global
models, so there is some bust potential in parts of the forecast.

daily details:

thursday night: southwest flow and associated moisture advection
will lead to scattered showers. clouds and precipitation will keep
it rather mild overnight, with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

friday: we`ll be solidly into a warmer and slightly more humid
airmass. both GFS and ECMWF indicate a decent amount of surface
based instability, with cape values likely topping out over 750
J/kg by the afternoon. not a lot of dynamic forcing, but the
atmosphere will be fairly moist (precipitable water values over
1.25"). looks like a typical early August weather pattern, so
I`ve gone ahead with a typical forecast for that part of the
summer. 35-50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms looks good. will
probably initially form over the higher terrain and then push east
during the afternoon. with 850mb temperatures rising to around
15C, that would support support highs in the lower to mid 80s for
the region. went a little warmer than the first guess model
blends.

saturday: looks a lot like friday, except the surface dewpoints
are a little bit higher. i think this will be the first day that
we`ll really start to notice the humidity. some differences in the
overall temperature fields as denoted by the GFS and ECMWF. ECMWF
wants to slide in slightly cooler air from the north, as it has
the ridge axis suppressed slightly further south than the GFS. the
GFS has 925mb temperatures rising to 20-23C, which would mean we
could approach 90f in some valley areas. ECMWF is cooler (17C
across the Canadian border to 22C in far southern vermont). took
the blend of the models, but that still results in temperatures
solidly into the 80s. based on those temperatures and a little
higher humidity, afternoon thunderstorms will be a good bet once
again. no strong focus other than terrain, so t-storms will be a
hit and miss proposition.

sunday & memorial day (monday): both GFS and ECMWF indicate that
cooler atlantic airmass will pool to our east and try to make a
westward push as a small high pressure develops east of new
england. this "back door" front will be shallow, and just how much
the terrain (white mountains and green mountains) restrict it`s
westward movement is just a little beyond the resolution of the
global models. for sunday, this backdoor front should still be to
our east, so sunday looks to be a repeat of saturday (temperature
wise and t-storm chance-wise). for monday, if anything, the models
suggest a cooler airmass will push into eastern vermont. if this
happens, we could see a pretty significant temperature variation
(60s far east to mid 80s far west) across the forecast area. those
specific details, as mentioned, are tough to pin down this far
out. thus stuck with straight guidance blend for monday, which
indicates an overall cooler day than sunday. still a rather moist
airmass around, so will maintain 30-40% PoPs. given the cooler
forecast, surface instability will be less, so probably not as
many t-storms around for memorial day. still doesn`t look like a
total washout of a day, so i think most outdoor activities/bar-b-ques
should still be okay.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR through the forecast period. Winds
variable less than 10 kts. After 15Z Tuesday, increasing moisture
from the east/south will bring sct/bkn VFR cigs in the 050-100 AGL
range with an increasing threat of a shower/isolated storm,
especially at KMPV/KRUT terminals.

Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...

06z Wed - 00z Thu: VFR with chance of afternoon/early evening
showers and/or isolated thunderstorms each day. Activity generally
scattered in nature with long periods of VFR/dry weather. Brief
gusty winds and/or MVFR visibilities possible with any heavier
activity.
Thu: VFR under high pressure.
Thu night-Fri: VFR/Chance MVFR in SHRA/TSRA with a warm front.
Sat: Mainly VFR. SCT pm SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Neiles





000
FXUS61 KBTV 232337
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide mainly clear and quiet weather tonight
with seasonably cool temperatures expected.  Moisture pivoting north
and west around departing offshore low pressure will bring a renewed
threat of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and early evening, mainly across Vermont.  Thereafter, the first
prolonged stretch of summerlike weather will build into the region
for the remainder of the week and into the Memorial Day weekend
with warm and increasingly humid conditions. While much of the
period will be dry, there will be a daily threat of scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 737 PM EDT Monday...A few tweaks to capture current trends
in sky temps and dewpoints. Dew points have been running 5 to 10
degrees below any MOS guidance though lamp data is pretty good.
with clear skies KSLK should get into the 30s otherwise running
forecast looks good.

previous discussion....High pressure will provide mainly clear
skies and light winds to the region again tonight. While there is
an outside chance of some patchy mist or fog in favored areas once
again, deep drying that has occurred today should limit the
overall coverage across the area. Minimum temperatures a blend of
of MOS-based and bias-corrected consensus data offering values
generally from the mid 40s to lower 50s with a few spot readings
around 40 in colder northern mountain hollows.

On Tuesday short-term models continue to show good consistency
showing a filling upper low will drift northeasterly along the
northeastern seaboard through the day.  While the system is
essentially equivalent barotropic, weak deformation/moisture
band rotating into our region on the system`s northwestern periphery
should interact with some marginal instability and low level
convergence to spark scattered showers and a few storms, mainly from
the Champlain Valley east.  Here solid chance to low-end likely pops
(40-60%) will be maintained.  Further west, a mainly dry and sunnier
day is expected as this area will be removed from spoke of deeper
moisture and convergence.  High temperatures will be similar to today
from the northern Champlain Valley west into northern New York (upper
70s to lower 80s) with slightly cooler readings (70s) further east
where coverage of afternoon clouds and showers will be greater.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday... tuesday night: showers/isolated
t-storms mainly for vermont will quickly fade by mid evening with
the loss of heating. maybe a touch of patchy fog for late night,
though confidence not high enough to include that in the forecast.

wednesday: hi-res models are all pretty similar with overall
scenario of a shortwave and associated weak surface front pushing
into the region from the northwest. with temperatures well into
the 70s, we`ll have some surface based instability. models suggest
cape values of 500-1000 J/kg. nam also showing 0-6km shear of
roughly 30-40kt developing during the afternoon especially across
northern ny. looks like enough ingredients coming together for
convection to develop during the afternoon -- perhaps with semi-
organization to them. model radar reflectivity output from various
hi-res models suggests a broken line of t-storms will rapidly
develop mid-day across northern new york and push southeast and
then quickly fade by early evening as they reach southern vermont
where less instability will be available. have blended the
reflectivity outputs to form the basis of the PoP forecast for the
day. basically a 30-50% chance of t-storms for the afternoon,
especially across northern ny and extending into northern vermont.

thursday: will be a transition day. for most of us, it will be
dry and fairly sunny. perhaps some showers or isolated t-storm
across northern ny later in the day as a developing southwest flow
sends a surge of moisture our way. stuck with the model blend with
highs well into the 70s for the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...
looks like a summer pattern for the holiday weekend. that means
warmth, moderately humid and the chance for thunderstorms each
day. GFS and ECMWF are in "okay" agreement with the large scale
synoptics, however there will be a "back-door" front setting up
somewhere probably just to our east thanks to the still quite
chilly atlantic ocean. depending on how far inland this front will
push will greatly affect the weather we see. considerable
differences in this subtle but important detail in the global
models, so there is some bust potential in parts of the forecast.

daily details:

thursday night: southwest flow and associated moisture advection
will lead to scattered showers. clouds and precipitation will keep
it rather mild overnight, with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

friday: we`ll be solidly into a warmer and slightly more humid
airmass. both GFS and ECMWF indicate a decent amount of surface
based instability, with cape values likely topping out over 750
J/kg by the afternoon. not a lot of dynamic forcing, but the
atmosphere will be fairly moist (precipitable water values over
1.25"). looks like a typical early August weather pattern, so
I`ve gone ahead with a typical forecast for that part of the
summer. 35-50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms looks good. will
probably initially form over the higher terrain and then push east
during the afternoon. with 850mb temperatures rising to around
15C, that would support support highs in the lower to mid 80s for
the region. went a little warmer than the first guess model
blends.

saturday: looks a lot like friday, except the surface dewpoints
are a little bit higher. i think this will be the first day that
we`ll really start to notice the humidity. some differences in the
overall temperature fields as denoted by the GFS and ECMWF. ECMWF
wants to slide in slightly cooler air from the north, as it has
the ridge axis suppressed slightly further south than the GFS. the
GFS has 925mb temperatures rising to 20-23C, which would mean we
could approach 90f in some valley areas. ECMWF is cooler (17C
across the Canadian border to 22C in far southern vermont). took
the blend of the models, but that still results in temperatures
solidly into the 80s. based on those temperatures and a little
higher humidity, afternoon thunderstorms will be a good bet once
again. no strong focus other than terrain, so t-storms will be a
hit and miss proposition.

sunday & memorial day (monday): both GFS and ECMWF indicate that
cooler atlantic airmass will pool to our east and try to make a
westward push as a small high pressure develops east of new
england. this "back door" front will be shallow, and just how much
the terrain (white mountains and green mountains) restrict it`s
westward movement is just a little beyond the resolution of the
global models. for sunday, this backdoor front should still be to
our east, so sunday looks to be a repeat of saturday (temperature
wise and t-storm chance-wise). for monday, if anything, the models suggest
a cooler airmass will push into eastern vermont. if this happens,
we could see a pretty significant temperature variation (60s far
east to mid 80s far west) across the forecast area. those specific
details, as mentioned, are tough to pin down this far out. thus
stuck with straight guidance blend for monday, which indicates an
overall cooler day than sunday. still a rather moist airmass
around, so will maintain 30-40% PoPs. given the cooler forecast,
surface instability will be less, so probably not as many t-storms
around for memorial day. still doesn`t look like a total washout
of a day, so i think most outdoor activities/bar-b-ques should
still be okay.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR through the forecast period. Winds
variable less than 10 kts. After 15Z Tuesday, increasing moisture
from the east/south will bring sct/bkn VFR cigs in the 050-100 AGL
range with an increasing threat of a shower/isolated storm,
especially at KMPV/KRUT terminals.

NOTE: KMSS ASOS seems to be reporting erroneous visibility/weather
as low as 1/4SM HZ for the past several hours since about 21Z.

Outlook 00Z Wednesday through Saturday...

18z Tue - 00z Thu: VFR with chance of afternoon/early evening
showers and/or isolated thunderstorms each day. Activity generally
scattered in nature with long periods of VFR/dry weather. Brief
gusty winds and/or MVFR visibilities possible with any heavier
activity.
Thu: VFR under high pressure.
Thu night-Fri: VFR/Chance MVFR in SHRA/TSRA with a warm front.
Sat: Mainly VFR. SCT pm SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231745
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
145 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry conditions with clear to partly cloudy
skies and above normal temperatures today. An area of low
pressure will lift northwards towards the New England coastline
and bring increasing clouds with a chance for showers on Tuesday.
High pressure will build into the region later in the week
bringing summer-like weather with warm temperatures and a chance
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1020 AM EDT Monday...The forecast remains in excellent
shape as we progress into the late morning hours as bountiful
sunshine rapidly warms the boundary layer. Temperatures continue
to rise into/through the 60s as of 1000 am with a few spots
already approaching the 70F mark. Current forecast high
temperatures solidly in the 70s to near 80F still looks right on
track with scattered fair weather cumulus mainly across the higher
terrain where light slope flows foster modest upward vertical
motions. Have a great day.

Previous discussion from 420 AM EDT Monday...
The upper level ridge tracks into the north country by mid
morning and dry air moves in aloft. Hires progs depict <30% for
the 1000- 500mb layer average as a subsidence inversion moves in
from the west. Expect plenty of sunshine for the forecast area
with 925mb temps warming to 18-19C leading to max temps in the
upper 70s with a few spot 80`s possible. With the ridge aloft and
high pressure building at the surface expect light north winds
throughout the afternoon and early evening.

Overnight tonight we slowly see an increase in clouds over southern
and eastern Vermont as a low pressure system brings a sight chance
for rain showers mainly over Windsor county in southern Vermont.
With clear skies still over northern New York expect temps to
radiate down to the upper 40s while staying in the low 50s in
Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Upper low off the eastern tip of Long
Island Tuesday morning will move northeast and reach eastern Maine
by Wednesday morning. This track should keep the bulk of
precipitation out of our area with a noticeable gradient of
precipitation chances Tuesday and Tuesday night. Looking at dry
conditions for the Saint Lawrence Valley...a slight chance for the
northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley...and chance for the
southern and eastern sections of Vermont. Can`t rule out the
possibility of a thunderstorm either. Much of this is already in
the forecast and have continued the idea. Showers taper off
Tuesday night as upper low moves well east of the area...but a
shortwave trough moves in from the west on Wednesday and thus
looking at another chance of showers for all areas along with a
slight chance for a thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Above normal temperatures will be the
rule through the extended forecast Thursday through Sunday. In
fact...925 mb temperatures get a little above +20C which suggests
highs well into the 80s. West to southwest flow aloft will develop
and thus higher dew points are expected. With the increased
moisture and clouds/convection expected through the weekend...high
temperatures may be tempered just a bit Nevertheless will indicate
upper 70s to mid 80s for the weekend. Instability will also exist
and thus looking at the potential for some showers and
thunderstorms through much of the extended. Some of it will be
diurnally driven...thus not looking at any particular days being a
washout...but a threat for convection will exist most days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR through the forecast period. Winds variable
less than 10 kts through 00Z, then trending light thereafter.
After 15Z Tuesday, increasing moisture from the east/south will
bring sct/bkn VFR cigs in the 050-100 AGL range with an increasing
threat of a shower/isolated storm, especially at KMPV/KRUT
terminals.

Outlook 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...

18z Tue - 00z Thu: VFR with chance of afternoon/early evening
showers and/or isolated thunderstorms each day. Activity generally
scattered in nature with long periods of VFR/dry weather. Brief
gusty winds and/or MVFR visibilities possible with any heavier
activity.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...JMG/Deal
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...JMG





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230823
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
423 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry conditions with clear to partly cloudy
skies and above normal temperatures today. An area of low
pressure will lift northwards towards the New England coastline
and bring increasing clouds with a chance for showers on Tuesday.
High pressure will build into the region later in the week
bringing summer-like weather with warm temperatures and a chance
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Fog remains the challenge overnight with
many of our favoured valley locations reporting patchy dense fog.
Patchy dense fog will continue through most of the overnight hours
along those sheltered river basins and in areas where residual
moisture from yesterday`s rainfall is trapped under a low level
inversion. The RAP still has a good handle on the fog so I`ve
continued to trend the sensible weather towards RAP based
forecast soundings.

The upper level ridge tracks into the north country by mid
morning and dry air moves in aloft. Hires progs depict <30% for
the 1000- 500mb layer average as a subsidence inversion moves in
from the west. Expect plenty of sunshine for the forecast area
with 925mb temps warming to 18-19C leading to max temps in the
upper 70s with a few spot 80`s possible. With the ridge aloft and
high pressure building at the surface expect light north winds
throughout the afternoon and early evening.

Overnight tonight we slowly see an increase in clouds over southern
and eastern Vermont as a low pressure system brings a sight chance
for rain showers mainly over Windsor county in southern Vermont.
With clear skies still over northern New York expect temps to
radiate down to the upper 40s while staying in the low 50s in
Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Upper low off the eastern tip of Long
Island Tuesday morning will move northeast and reach eastern Maine
by Wednesday morning. This track should keep the bulk of
precipitation out of our area with a noticeable gradient of
precipitation chances Tuesday and Tuesday night. Looking at dry
conditions for the Saint Lawrence Valley...a slight chance for the
northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley...and chance for the
southern and eastern sections of Vermont. Can`t rule out the
possibility of a thunderstorm either. Much of this is already in
the forecast and have continued the idea. Showers taper off
Tuesday night as upper low moves well east of the area...but a
shortwave trough moves in from the west on Wednesday and thus
looking at another chance of showers for all areas along with a
slight chance for a thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Above normal temperatures will be the
rule through the extended forecast Thursday through Sunday. In
fact...925 mb temperatures get a little above +20C which suggests
highs well into the 80s. West to southwest flow aloft will develop
and thus higher dew points are expected. With the increased
moisture and clouds/convection expected through the weekend...high
temperatures may be tempered just a bit Nevertheless will indicate
upper 70s to mid 80s for the weekend. Instability will also exist
and thus looking at the potential for some showers and
thunderstorms through much of the extended. Some of it will be
diurnally driven...thus not looking at any particular days being a
washout...but a threat for convection will exist most days.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06Z Monday...Clearing skies and trapped low level
moisture have enabled scattered areas of patchy fog to develop.
The residual moisture from the precip yesterday will continue to
aid in fog development especially at RUT and MPV. Both locations
have a well developed fog bank around the airport terminals and as
of 06z are 1/4SM with fog. Expect periods of IFR fog to be
possible for SLK/PBG/BTV as well through 10-11z this morning. MSS
should remain clear for most of the evening and the lack of precip
yesterday should preclude any visibility restrictions from fog
formation. Anticipate the low level moisture mixing out quickly
tomorrow and thus conditions should improve to VFR after 12z.
Winds will be light and variable overnight and then turn northerly
after 15z at 05-10 knots.

Outlook 06Z Tuesday through Friday...

06z Tue - 12z Thu: VFR with chance of afternoon showers Wednesday
with brief MVFR visibility restrictions.

12z Thursday - Friday: VFR/high pressure.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Deal





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230620
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
220 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move into the region overnight into Monday
with fair skies and above normal temperatures. Tuesday will see a
chance for showers for Vermont and northeast New York when an area
of low pressure lifts northeast along the New England coast. High
pressure will build into the region later in the week bringing
summer-like weather with warm temperatures and a chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 201 AM EDT Monday...Fog will be the challenge of the evening
as latest 11-3.9 IR shows quite a few fog banks have developed
mainly along the river valley locations of Vermont that saw the
rain from yesterday. RAP forecast soundings capture the trapped
low level moisture and so I based most of the timing of the
mention of fog in the forecast off of RAP low level moisture. LAPS
surface analysis of dewpoint depressions (DD) shows 3 degrees or
less for nearly all of Vermont less than 1500 feet where as
northern New York is has DD`s of 4-7 degrees. This trapped
abundant low level moisture should keep patchy fog around through
5-6am before slowly eroding as surface heating begins and the fog
mixes out. Current forecast min Temps look right in line with the
obs trends so no changes we needed to the temp or winds forecast.

Previous discussion from 315 PM EDT Sunday...An odd pattern right
now with a 500 mb trough oriented NE to SW, and an upper low
closing off in the base of the trough and sagging southeast toward
the VA/NC coast by 12z Monday. Upper level flow is from the from
the northeast, and the few showers and thunderstorms that have
developed are tracking to the southwest. Lightning has mostly
skipped Vermont, occurring in NH and NY outside of the forecast
area in areas that have received more sunshine and instability
while Vermont had the morning clouds and sprinkles. Convection
will continue for a few more hours then taper off this evening. As
the upper low drops south away from the forecast area a narrow
ridge will topple over into the region from the west, and the
pattern will resemble a rex block through Monday. On Monday an
elongated narrow ridge of high pressure from the lower Mississippi
valley extends up across the Great Lakes into southern Quebec,
separating our southeast US closed low from the next trough of low
pressure moving across southern Canada.

Subsidence and some drying late tonight into Monday will allow for
wide temperature swings. With good radiation tonight temps to fall
into the 40s most areas to near 50 in the Champlain & St. Lawrence
Valleys. Some patchy light fog possible in the areas that saw some
rain during the day. Plenty of sunshine on Monday and 925 and 850
support high temps in the mid to upper 70s with full mixing of the
boundary layer. Light north winds during the day with surface ridge
axis positioned to the north of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 359 PM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains on track as the
vertically stacked low pressure system begins a slow northward
turn later Monday night, reaching an area east of NJ by daybreak
Tuesday. This should result in increasing mid-upper level cloud
cover and a low chance of showers across SE VT toward dawn on Tue.
Increasing clouds across VT will keep lows on the mild side,
generally in the lower 50s. May see some mid-upper 40s across nrn
NY and VT where clouds are thinner and less extensive.

The closed 500mb low tracks NNE across SE MA on Tuesday. System
is equivalent barotropic in nature, and likely will be associated
with bands of showers around the w/nw periphery rather than
broader zone of stratiform precipitation. PoPs 40-60 percent
highest across VT with precipitation amts 0.1-0.2, with lower
PoPs and lighter QPF across nrn NY further removed from the low
center. May see some locally heavier amts given PW values reaching
1.2" per GFS, and potential CAPE reaching 500-900 J/kg depending
on where breaks in the clouds occur which looks to be mainly on
the NW side of the upper circulation which is across VT. Some
model differences in exactly where the most instability will occur
as ECMWF and NAM a bit further east than GFS. In any event, a few
embedded thunderstorms will occur much like today. Deep layer NE
flow would result in slow W-SW storm motions if embedded
convection were to develop. Highs on Tuesday generally expected in
the low to mid 70s with 850 temps either side of 10C.

The upper low opens up and moves east Tuesday night with upper
level ridging moving in along with nighttime stabilization will
lead to some clearing and diminishing PoPs with lows mainly in
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 359 PM EDT Sunday...A transition toward a warmer and more
humid overall weather pattern for the bulk of the extended
forecast period. Variability in the details of the GFS and ECMWF
makes daily details a bit uncertain. Still holding on to a low
chance of showers through Wed as a weak front and upper level trof
moves through with somewhat drier air following Wed Night. It
should remain dry Thursday but it looks like the front will return
as a weak warm front on Friday with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, though GFS has convective bullseye affecting the
model output. Finally on Sat and Sun building heights reaching an
anomalous 588 dm and strengthening SW low-level flow should yield
a gradual increase in humidity with dewpoints getting into the
lower 60s by the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. With air mass
becoming more moist/unstable, PoPs continue generally 30-40% each
day. Highs generally continue above normal with highs in the 70s
to the lower 80s each day but if the current trends continue may
be even warmer by next weekend. low temps also showing a gradual
creep upward from the 50s to around 60 by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06Z Monday...Clearing skies and trapped low level
moisture have enabled scattered areas of patchy fog to develop.
The residual moisture from the precip yesterday will continue to
aid in fog development especially at RUT and MPV. Both locations
have a well developed fog bank around the airport terminals and as
of 06z are 1/4SM with fog. Expect periods of IFR fog to be
possible for SLK/PBG/BTV as well through 10-11z this morning. MSS
should remain clear for most of the evening and the lack of precip
yesterday should preclude any visibility restrictions from fog
formation. Anticipate the low level moisture mixing out quickly
tomorrow and thus conditions should improve to VFR after 12z.
Winds will be light and variable overnight and then turn northerly
after 15z at 05-10 knots.

Outlook 06Z Tuesday through Friday...

06z Tue - 12z Thu: VFR with chance of afternoon showers Wednesday
with brief MVFR visibility restrictions.

12z Thursday - Friday: VFR/high pressure.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...WGH/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Deal





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