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000
FXUS61 KBTV 270757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DRIER AIR
WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION LEADING
TO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT FRIDAY... CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE BULK
OF THE AVAILABLE PRECIP IS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT ECHOS SHOW OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT.
CURRENTLY DONT HAVE ANY GROUND TRUTH AS TO THE LIGHT ECHOS BUT ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW LIGHT SNOWFLAKES ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AS
THE SURFACE IS ALMOST COMPLETELY SATURATED. GIVEN THE HEAVY
SATURATION AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, SOME PATCHY FOG HAS
FORMED ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND UP INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
HERE AT THE BTV AIRPORT WE ARE STILL CLEAR BUT ACROSS THE LAKE IN
PLATTSBURGH THEY ARE REPORTING 3 MILES OF VISIBILITY AND FURTHER
SOUTH IN BOTH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD BOTH SITES ARE REPORTING
BETWEEN 1-3 MILES OF VISIBILITY. CURRENT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE REGION PRETTY MUCH LOCKED IN WITH SATURATION THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DRY OUT. FORECAST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 6 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING EXPECT THIS MORNINGS
COMMUTE TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. AS OF THIS UPDATE I DONT
EXPECT ANY SORT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA,
THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE MOUNTAINS IN BOTH
THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY BEFORE THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PUSHES
INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO CONTINUE TO BE
FUNNELED INTO THE REGION MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND IN THE MID TO LOW
30S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT FRIDAY...IT REMAINS A BROKEN RECORD BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND WILL STILL BE TRYING TO HOLD ON THIS EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH DOES MOVE THE EAST WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF
NORTHWEST FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND COLD DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ONLY RISING TO THE TEENS IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2000 FT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS WITH THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE
LEADING TO A RETURN OF WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THAT WILL CAUSE
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST
OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND AN ABSENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. A FEW MINOR TROUGHS/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW EXPECTED...WITH MAIN LIGHT
PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSING TO
OUR NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 1-2" OF
SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMTS GENERALLY AOA 1000FT. MAY SEE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR
20S...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT A NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...AND ALSO CARRIED 20-30 POPS ACROSS
NRN NY ZONES FOR RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS AS BEST DIFFERENTIAL PVA
PASSES BY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY FAIR TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS INTO QUEBEC. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO WSWLY ON THURSDAY WITH
WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT QPF APPEARS
UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AGAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
NORMS...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LINGERING AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SW-NE ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE. THAT SAID...WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF CEILING AND
VSBY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
REMAINS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. GENERALLY VFR AT PBG/BTV...BUT LIFR
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR MPV/MSS/SLK/RUT WITH LOW CEILINGS IN
PLACE. AREAS OF MIST ARE ALSO EXPECTED. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINTAINING MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (AND
VARIABLE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS
OR SO AFTER 15Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...AND REMAINING NW TO NORTH
5-10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT
WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DRIER AIR
WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION LEADING
TO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT FRIDAY... CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE BULK
OF THE AVAILABLE PRECIP IS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT ECHOS SHOW OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT.
CURRENTLY DONT HAVE ANY GROUND TRUTH AS TO THE LIGHT ECHOS BUT ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW LIGHT SNOWFLAKES ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AS
THE SURFACE IS ALMOST COMPLETELY SATURATED. GIVEN THE HEAVY
SATURATION AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, SOME PATCHY FOG HAS
FORMED ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND UP INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
HERE AT THE BTV AIRPORT WE ARE STILL CLEAR BUT ACROSS THE LAKE IN
PLATTSBURGH THEY ARE REPORTING 3 MILES OF VISIBILITY AND FURTHER
SOUTH IN BOTH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD BOTH SITES ARE REPORTING
BETWEEN 1-3 MILES OF VISIBILITY. CURRENT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE REGION PRETTY MUCH LOCKED IN WITH SATURATION THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DRY OUT. FORECAST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 6 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING EXPECT THIS MORNINGS
COMMUTE TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. AS OF THIS UPDATE I DONT
EXPECT ANY SORT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA,
THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE MOUNTAINS IN BOTH
THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY BEFORE THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PUSHES
INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO CONTINUE TO BE
FUNNELED INTO THE REGION MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND IN THE MID TO LOW
30S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT FRIDAY...IT REMAINS A BROKEN RECORD BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND WILL STILL BE TRYING TO HOLD ON THIS EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH DOES MOVE THE EAST WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF
NORTHWEST FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND COLD DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ONLY RISING TO THE TEENS IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2000 FT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS WITH THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE
LEADING TO A RETURN OF WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THAT WILL CAUSE
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST
OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND AN ABSENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. A FEW MINOR TROUGHS/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW EXPECTED...WITH MAIN LIGHT
PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSING TO
OUR NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 1-2" OF
SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMTS GENERALLY AOA 1000FT. MAY SEE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR
20S...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT A NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...AND ALSO CARRIED 20-30 POPS ACROSS
NRN NY ZONES FOR RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS AS BEST DIFFERENTIAL PVA
PASSES BY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY FAIR TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS INTO QUEBEC. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO WSWLY ON THURSDAY WITH
WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT QPF APPEARS
UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AGAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
NORMS...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LINGERING AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SW-NE ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE. THAT SAID...WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF CEILING AND
VSBY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
REMAINS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. GENERALLY VFR AT PBG/BTV...BUT LIFR
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR MPV/MSS/SLK/RUT WITH LOW CEILINGS IN
PLACE. AREAS OF MIST ARE ALSO EXPECTED. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINTAINING MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (AND
VARIABLE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS
OR SO AFTER 15Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...AND REMAINING NW TO NORTH
5-10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT
WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AS OF THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MAIN CORE OF THE PRECIP HAS COME TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT THE THREAT IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH BOTH RUTLAND AND
SPRINGFIELD REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TEMPS/POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NO CHANCES NEEDED. WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT DONT
EXPECT ANY WIDE SCALE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH 8AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1048 PM THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
COOL OFF OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND AN ABSENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. A FEW MINOR TROUGHS/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW EXPECTED...WITH MAIN LIGHT
PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSING TO
OUR NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 1-2" OF
SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMTS GENERALLY AOA 1000FT. MAY SEE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR
20S...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT A NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...AND ALSO CARRIED 20-30 POPS ACROSS
NRN NY ZONES FOR RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS AS BEST DIFFERENTIAL PVA
PASSES BY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY FAIR TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS INTO QUEBEC. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO WSWLY ON THURSDAY WITH
WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT QPF APPEARS
UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AGAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
NORMS...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LINGERING AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SW-NE ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE. THAT SAID...WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF CEILING AND
VSBY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
REMAINS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. GENERALLY VFR AT PBG/BTV...BUT LIFR
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR MPV/MSS/SLK/RUT WITH LOW CEILINGS IN
PLACE. AREAS OF MIST ARE ALSO EXPECTED. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINTAINING MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (AND
VARIABLE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS
OR SO AFTER 15Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...AND REMAINING NW TO NORTH
5-10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT
WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AS OF THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MAIN CORE OF THE PRECIP HAS COME TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT THE THREAT IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH BOTH RUTLAND AND
SPRINGFIELD REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TEMPS/POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NO CHANCES NEEDED. WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT DONT
EXPECT ANY WIDE SCALE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH 8AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1048 PM THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
COOL OFF OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND AN ABSENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. A FEW MINOR TROUGHS/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW EXPECTED...WITH MAIN LIGHT
PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSING TO
OUR NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 1-2" OF
SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMTS GENERALLY AOA 1000FT. MAY SEE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR
20S...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT A NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...AND ALSO CARRIED 20-30 POPS ACROSS
NRN NY ZONES FOR RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS AS BEST DIFFERENTIAL PVA
PASSES BY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY FAIR TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS INTO QUEBEC. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO WSWLY ON THURSDAY WITH
WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT QPF APPEARS
UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AGAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
NORMS...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LINGERING AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SW-NE ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE. THAT SAID...WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF CEILING AND
VSBY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
REMAINS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. GENERALLY VFR AT PBG/BTV...BUT LIFR
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR MPV/MSS/SLK/RUT WITH LOW CEILINGS IN
PLACE. AREAS OF MIST ARE ALSO EXPECTED. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINTAINING MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (AND
VARIABLE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS
OR SO AFTER 15Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...AND REMAINING NW TO NORTH
5-10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT
WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AS OF THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MAIN CORE OF THE PRECIP HAS COME TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT THE THREAT IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH BOTH RUTLAND AND
SPRINGFIELD REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TEMPS/POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NO CHANCES NEEDED. WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT DONT
EXPECT ANY WIDE SCALE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH 8AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1048 PM THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
COOL OFF OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LINGERING AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SW-NE ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE. THAT SAID...WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF CEILING AND
VSBY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
REMAINS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. GENERALLY VFR AT PBG/BTV...BUT LIFR
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR MPV/MSS/SLK/RUT WITH LOW CEILINGS IN
PLACE. AREAS OF MIST ARE ALSO EXPECTED. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINTAINING MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (AND
VARIABLE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS
OR SO AFTER 15Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...AND REMAINING NW TO NORTH
5-10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT
WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AS OF THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MAIN CORE OF THE PRECIP HAS COME TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT THE THREAT IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH BOTH RUTLAND AND
SPRINGFIELD REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TEMPS/POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NO CHANCES NEEDED. WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT DONT
EXPECT ANY WIDE SCALE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH 8AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1048 PM THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
COOL OFF OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LINGERING AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SW-NE ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE. THAT SAID...WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF CEILING AND
VSBY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
REMAINS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. GENERALLY VFR AT PBG/BTV...BUT LIFR
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR MPV/MSS/SLK/RUT WITH LOW CEILINGS IN
PLACE. AREAS OF MIST ARE ALSO EXPECTED. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINTAINING MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (AND
VARIABLE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS
OR SO AFTER 15Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...AND REMAINING NW TO NORTH
5-10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT
WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AS OF THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MAIN CORE OF THE PRECIP HAS COME TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT THE THREAT IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH BOTH RUTLAND AND
SPRINGFIELD REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TEMPS/POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NO CHANCES NEEDED. WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT DONT
EXPECT ANY WIDE SCALE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH 8AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1048 PM THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
COOL OFF OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LINGERING AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SW-NE ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE. THAT SAID...WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF CEILING AND
VSBY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
REMAINS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. GENERALLY VFR AT PBG/BTV...BUT LIFR
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR MPV/MSS/SLK/RUT WITH LOW CEILINGS IN
PLACE. AREAS OF MIST ARE ALSO EXPECTED. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINTAINING MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (AND
VARIABLE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS
OR SO AFTER 15Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...AND REMAINING NW TO NORTH
5-10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT
WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AS OF THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MAIN CORE OF THE PRECIP HAS COME TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT THE THREAT IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH BOTH RUTLAND AND
SPRINGFIELD REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TEMPS/POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NO CHANCES NEEDED. WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT DONT
EXPECT ANY WIDE SCALE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH 8AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1048 PM THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
COOL OFF OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LINGERING AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SW-NE ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE. THAT SAID...WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF CEILING AND
VSBY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
REMAINS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. GENERALLY VFR AT PBG/BTV...BUT LIFR
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR MPV/MSS/SLK/RUT WITH LOW CEILINGS IN
PLACE. AREAS OF MIST ARE ALSO EXPECTED. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINTAINING MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (AND
VARIABLE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS
OR SO AFTER 15Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...AND REMAINING NW TO NORTH
5-10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT
WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270532
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AS OF THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MAIN CORE OF THE PRECIP HAS COME TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT THE THREAT IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH BOTH RUTLAND AND
SPRINGFIELD REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TEMPS/POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NO CHANCES NEEDED. WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT DONT
EXPECT ANY WIDE SCALE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH 8AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1048 PM THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
COOL OFF OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES,
AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION
CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND
IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL
WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET
SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS
STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND
SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270532
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AS OF THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MAIN CORE OF THE PRECIP HAS COME TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT THE THREAT IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH BOTH RUTLAND AND
SPRINGFIELD REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TEMPS/POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NO CHANCES NEEDED. WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT DONT
EXPECT ANY WIDE SCALE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH 8AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1048 PM THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
COOL OFF OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES,
AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION
CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND
IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL
WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET
SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS
STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND
SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT. STILL
EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT
IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOL OFF
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES,
AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION
CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND
IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL
WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET
SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS
STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND
SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT. STILL
EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT
IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOL OFF
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES,
AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION
CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND
IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL
WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET
SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS
STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND
SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT. STILL
EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT
IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOL OFF
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES,
AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION
CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND
IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL
WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET
SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS
STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND
SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT. STILL
EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT
IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOL OFF
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES,
AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION
CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND
IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL
WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET
SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS
STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND
SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 262343
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE. RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ABOVE 1500
FEET PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING RAIN TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET.
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE
COMING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SOME VERY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT STILL LOOKING AT A
SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 2000 FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES,
AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION
CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND
IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL
WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET
SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS
STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND
SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262343
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE. RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ABOVE 1500
FEET PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING RAIN TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET.
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE
COMING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SOME VERY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT STILL LOOKING AT A
SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 2000 FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES,
AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION
CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND
IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL
WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET
SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS
STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND
SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 262343
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE. RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ABOVE 1500
FEET PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING RAIN TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET.
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE
COMING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SOME VERY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT STILL LOOKING AT A
SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 2000 FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES,
AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION
CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND
IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL
WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET
SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS
STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND
SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 262313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT IS CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH
SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE COMING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...BUT STILL LOOKING AT A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 2000
FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES,
AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION
CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND
IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL
WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET
SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS
STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND
SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT IS CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH
SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE COMING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...BUT STILL LOOKING AT A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 2000
FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES,
AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION
CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND
IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL
WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET
SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS
STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND
SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 262313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT IS CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH
SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE COMING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...BUT STILL LOOKING AT A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 2000
FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES,
AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION
CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND
IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL
WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET
SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS
STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND
SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT IS CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH
SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE COMING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...BUT STILL LOOKING AT A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 2000
FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 22Z AT
THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK IN HIGHER
ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...IMPACT TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW
SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING BR INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE
SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000
FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...
RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE
MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER
RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE HERE FOR GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RAIN...BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE
SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS INTO
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH MORE AT THE HIGHER SUMMITS. THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING WAS REPORTED EARLIER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING...BUT FEEL BEST THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WINDSOR COUNTY MIGHT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
HEARING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT THE THREAT IS GENERALLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST
TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING
ALTHOUGH NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT
LATE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN
VALUES OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION.
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT
OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24
HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM
BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 22Z AT
THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK IN HIGHER
ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...IMPACT TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW
SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING BR INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE HERE FOR GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RAIN...BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE
SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS INTO
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH MORE AT THE HIGHER SUMMITS. THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING WAS REPORTED EARLIER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING...BUT FEEL BEST THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WINDSOR COUNTY MIGHT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
HEARING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT THE THREAT IS GENERALLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST
TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING
ALTHOUGH NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT
LATE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN
VALUES OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION.
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT
OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24
HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM
BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 22Z AT
THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK IN HIGHER
ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...IMPACT TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW
SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING BR INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE HERE FOR GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RAIN...BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE
SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS INTO
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH MORE AT THE HIGHER SUMMITS. THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING WAS REPORTED EARLIER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING...BUT FEEL BEST THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WINDSOR COUNTY MIGHT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
HEARING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT THE THREAT IS GENERALLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST
TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING
ALTHOUGH NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT
LATE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN
VALUES OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION.
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT
OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24
HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM
BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 22Z AT
THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK IN HIGHER
ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...IMPACT TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW
SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING BR INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE HERE FOR GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RAIN...BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE
SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS INTO
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH MORE AT THE HIGHER SUMMITS. THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING WAS REPORTED EARLIER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING...BUT FEEL BEST THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WINDSOR COUNTY MIGHT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
HEARING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT THE THREAT IS GENERALLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST
TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING
ALTHOUGH NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT
LATE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN
VALUES OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION.
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT
OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24
HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM
BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 22Z AT
THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK IN HIGHER
ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...IMPACT TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW
SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING BR INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE HERE FOR GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RAIN...BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE
SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS INTO
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH MORE AT THE HIGHER SUMMITS. THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING WAS REPORTED EARLIER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING...BUT FEEL BEST THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WINDSOR COUNTY MIGHT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
HEARING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT THE THREAT IS GENERALLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST
TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING
ALTHOUGH NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT
LATE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN
VALUES OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION.
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT
OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24
HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM
BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF...AND GENERALLY 15-20 KTS
BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN LOWERING FURTHER AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS
AFTN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOCALLY
IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AT SLK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z . WILL BE MONITORING NEWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
RAIN BAND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION 17-20Z. IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU
22Z AT THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE HERE FOR GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RAIN...BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE
SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS INTO
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH MORE AT THE HIGHER SUMMITS. THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING WAS REPORTED EARLIER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING...BUT FEEL BEST THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WINDSOR COUNTY MIGHT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
HEARING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT THE THREAT IS GENERALLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST
TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING
ALTHOUGH NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT
LATE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN
VALUES OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION.
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT
OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24
HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM
BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF...AND GENERALLY 15-20 KTS
BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN LOWERING FURTHER AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS
AFTN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOCALLY
IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AT SLK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z . WILL BE MONITORING NEWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
RAIN BAND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION 17-20Z. IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU
22Z AT THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE HERE FOR GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RAIN...BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE
SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS INTO
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH MORE AT THE HIGHER SUMMITS. THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING WAS REPORTED EARLIER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING...BUT FEEL BEST THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WINDSOR COUNTY MIGHT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
HEARING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT THE THREAT IS GENERALLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST
TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING
ALTHOUGH NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT
LATE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN
VALUES OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION.
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT
OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24
HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM
BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF...AND GENERALLY 15-20 KTS
BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN LOWERING FURTHER AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS
AFTN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOCALLY
IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AT SLK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z . WILL BE MONITORING NEWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
RAIN BAND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION 17-20Z. IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU
22Z AT THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261415
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT THURSDAY...STARTING TO SEE THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THUS GOING
FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER SUMMITS SNOW LOOKS REAL
GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO ADJUST TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...SLOW IT DOWN A BIT...AND TWEAK SKY COVER DOWN A
BIT BEFORE IT BECOMES OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST
TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING
ALTHOUGH NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT
LATE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN
VALUES OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION.
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT
OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24
HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM
BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF...AND GENERALLY 15-20 KTS
BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN LOWERING FURTHER AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS
AFTN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOCALLY
IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AT SLK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z . WILL BE MONITORING NEWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
RAIN BAND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION 17-20Z. IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU
22Z AT THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261415
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT THURSDAY...STARTING TO SEE THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THUS GOING
FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER SUMMITS SNOW LOOKS REAL
GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO ADJUST TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...SLOW IT DOWN A BIT...AND TWEAK SKY COVER DOWN A
BIT BEFORE IT BECOMES OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST
TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING
ALTHOUGH NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT
LATE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN
VALUES OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION.
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT
OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24
HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM
BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF...AND GENERALLY 15-20 KTS
BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN LOWERING FURTHER AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS
AFTN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOCALLY
IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AT SLK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z . WILL BE MONITORING NEWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
RAIN BAND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION 17-20Z. IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU
22Z AT THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261415
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT THURSDAY...STARTING TO SEE THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THUS GOING
FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER SUMMITS SNOW LOOKS REAL
GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO ADJUST TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...SLOW IT DOWN A BIT...AND TWEAK SKY COVER DOWN A
BIT BEFORE IT BECOMES OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST
TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING
ALTHOUGH NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT
LATE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN
VALUES OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION.
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT
OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24
HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM
BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF...AND GENERALLY 15-20 KTS
BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN LOWERING FURTHER AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS
AFTN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOCALLY
IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AT SLK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z . WILL BE MONITORING NEWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
RAIN BAND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION 17-20Z. IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU
22Z AT THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261415
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT THURSDAY...STARTING TO SEE THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THUS GOING
FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER SUMMITS SNOW LOOKS REAL
GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO ADJUST TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...SLOW IT DOWN A BIT...AND TWEAK SKY COVER DOWN A
BIT BEFORE IT BECOMES OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST
TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING
ALTHOUGH NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT
LATE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN
VALUES OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION.
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT
OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24
HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM
BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF...AND GENERALLY 15-20 KTS
BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN LOWERING FURTHER AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS
AFTN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOCALLY
IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AT SLK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z . WILL BE MONITORING NEWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
RAIN BAND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION 17-20Z. IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU
22Z AT THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT THURSDAY... CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE
PRECIP IS A BIT SLOWER TO THE AREA THAN THE SHORT RANGED GUIDANCE
WAS INDICATING AS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE. THUS I DELAYED THE INCREASE
OF POPS BY A FEW HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
TO BUMP UP TEMPS OVER THE MORRISVILLE/MONTPELIER REGION AS TEMPS
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 8 DEGREES LOW. DEW POINTS LOOK GOOD TO GO AND
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE 5-10KTS AND GUSTY
(UP TO 20KTS) AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 346 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10AM-12PM BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERMALLY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS BEING A MOSTLY A RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 2000` FEET AND THE VALLEYS SEEING
MOSTLY RAIN INITIALLY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
BEFORE THE COLD AIR CAN FILTER IN. EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO
RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.40" THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CORRESPONDING
SNOW TOTALS ONLY SEEING 1-3" INCHES MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST TO NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING ALTHOUGH
NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT LATE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN VALUES OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION. STORM TOTAL QPF FOR
THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT
RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN
THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S
TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24 HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR
HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF...AND GENERALLY 15-20 KTS
BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN LOWERING FURTHER AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS
AFTN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOCALLY
IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AT SLK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z . WILL BE MONITORING NEWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
RAIN BAND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION 17-20Z. IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU
22Z AT THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT THURSDAY... CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE
PRECIP IS A BIT SLOWER TO THE AREA THAN THE SHORT RANGED GUIDANCE
WAS INDICATING AS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE. THUS I DELAYED THE INCREASE
OF POPS BY A FEW HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
TO BUMP UP TEMPS OVER THE MORRISVILLE/MONTPELIER REGION AS TEMPS
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 8 DEGREES LOW. DEW POINTS LOOK GOOD TO GO AND
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE 5-10KTS AND GUSTY
(UP TO 20KTS) AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 346 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10AM-12PM BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERMALLY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS BEING A MOSTLY A RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 2000` FEET AND THE VALLEYS SEEING
MOSTLY RAIN INITIALLY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
BEFORE THE COLD AIR CAN FILTER IN. EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO
RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.40" THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CORRESPONDING
SNOW TOTALS ONLY SEEING 1-3" INCHES MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST TO NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING ALTHOUGH
NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT LATE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN VALUES OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION. STORM TOTAL QPF FOR
THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT
RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN
THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S
TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24 HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR
HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF...AND GENERALLY 15-20 KTS
BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN LOWERING FURTHER AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS
AFTN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOCALLY
IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AT SLK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z . WILL BE MONITORING NEWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
RAIN BAND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION 17-20Z. IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU
22Z AT THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT THURSDAY... CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE
PRECIP IS A BIT SLOWER TO THE AREA THAN THE SHORT RANGED GUIDANCE
WAS INDICATING AS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE. THUS I DELAYED THE INCREASE
OF POPS BY A FEW HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
TO BUMP UP TEMPS OVER THE MORRISVILLE/MONTPELIER REGION AS TEMPS
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 8 DEGREES LOW. DEW POINTS LOOK GOOD TO GO AND
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE 5-10KTS AND GUSTY
(UP TO 20KTS) AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 346 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10AM-12PM BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERMALLY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS BEING A MOSTLY A RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 2000` FEET AND THE VALLEYS SEEING
MOSTLY RAIN INITIALLY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
BEFORE THE COLD AIR CAN FILTER IN. EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO
RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.40" THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CORRESPONDING
SNOW TOTALS ONLY SEEING 1-3" INCHES MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST TO NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING ALTHOUGH
NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT LATE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN VALUES OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION. STORM TOTAL QPF FOR
THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT
RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN
THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S
TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24 HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR
HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF...AND GENERALLY 15-20 KTS
BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN LOWERING FURTHER AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS
AFTN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOCALLY
IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AT SLK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z . WILL BE MONITORING NEWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
RAIN BAND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION 17-20Z. IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU
22Z AT THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT THURSDAY... CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE
PRECIP IS A BIT SLOWER TO THE AREA THAN THE SHORT RANGED GUIDANCE
WAS INDICATING AS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE. THUS I DELAYED THE INCREASE
OF POPS BY A FEW HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
TO BUMP UP TEMPS OVER THE MORRISVILLE/MONTPELIER REGION AS TEMPS
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 8 DEGREES LOW. DEW POINTS LOOK GOOD TO GO AND
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE 5-10KTS AND GUSTY
(UP TO 20KTS) AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 346 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10AM-12PM BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERMALLY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS BEING A MOSTLY A RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 2000` FEET AND THE VALLEYS SEEING
MOSTLY RAIN INITIALLY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
BEFORE THE COLD AIR CAN FILTER IN. EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO
RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.40" THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CORRESPONDING
SNOW TOTALS ONLY SEEING 1-3" INCHES MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST TO NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING ALTHOUGH
NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT LATE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN VALUES OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION. STORM TOTAL QPF FOR
THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT
RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN
THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S
TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24 HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR
HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF...AND GENERALLY 15-20 KTS
BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN LOWERING FURTHER AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS
AFTN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOCALLY
IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AT SLK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z . WILL BE MONITORING NEWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
RAIN BAND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION 17-20Z. IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU
22Z AT THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS 22-04Z TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT THURSDAY... CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE
PRECIP IS A BIT SLOWER TO THE AREA THAN THE SHORT RANGED GUIDANCE
WAS INDICATING AS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE. THUS I DELAYED THE INCREASE
OF POPS BY A FEW HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
TO BUMP UP TEMPS OVER THE MORRISVILLE/MONTPELIER REGION AS TEMPS
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 8 DEGREES LOW. DEW POINTS LOOK GOOD TO GO AND
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE 5-10KTS AND GUSTY
(UP TO 20KTS) AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 346 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10AM-12PM BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERMALLY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS BEING A MOSTLY A RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 2000` FEET AND THE VALLEYS SEEING
MOSTLY RAIN INITIALLY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
BEFORE THE COLD AIR CAN FILTER IN. EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO
RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.40" THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CORRESPONDING
SNOW TOTALS ONLY SEEING 1-3" INCHES MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST TO NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING ALTHOUGH
NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT LATE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN VALUES OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION. STORM TOTAL QPF FOR
THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT
RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN
THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S
TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24 HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR
HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT THURSDAY... CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE
PRECIP IS A BIT SLOWER TO THE AREA THAN THE SHORT RANGED GUIDANCE
WAS INDICATING AS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE. THUS I DELAYED THE INCREASE
OF POPS BY A FEW HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
TO BUMP UP TEMPS OVER THE MORRISVILLE/MONTPELIER REGION AS TEMPS
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 8 DEGREES LOW. DEW POINTS LOOK GOOD TO GO AND
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE 5-10KTS AND GUSTY
(UP TO 20KTS) AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 346 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10AM-12PM BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERMALLY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS BEING A MOSTLY A RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 2000` FEET AND THE VALLEYS SEEING
MOSTLY RAIN INITIALLY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
BEFORE THE COLD AIR CAN FILTER IN. EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO
RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.40" THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CORRESPONDING
SNOW TOTALS ONLY SEEING 1-3" INCHES MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST TO NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING ALTHOUGH
NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT LATE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN VALUES OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION. STORM TOTAL QPF FOR
THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT
RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN
THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S
TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24 HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR
HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT THURSDAY... CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE
PRECIP IS A BIT SLOWER TO THE AREA THAN THE SHORT RANGED GUIDANCE
WAS INDICATING AS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE. THUS I DELAYED THE INCREASE
OF POPS BY A FEW HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
TO BUMP UP TEMPS OVER THE MORRISVILLE/MONTPELIER REGION AS TEMPS
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 8 DEGREES LOW. DEW POINTS LOOK GOOD TO GO AND
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE 5-10KTS AND GUSTY
(UP TO 20KTS) AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 346 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10AM-12PM BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERMALLY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS BEING A MOSTLY A RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 2000` FEET AND THE VALLEYS SEEING
MOSTLY RAIN INITIALLY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
BEFORE THE COLD AIR CAN FILTER IN. EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO
RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.40" THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CORRESPONDING
SNOW TOTALS ONLY SEEING 1-3" INCHES MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST TO NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING ALTHOUGH
NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT LATE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN VALUES OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION. STORM TOTAL QPF FOR
THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT
RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN
THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S
TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24 HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR
HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT THURSDAY... CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE
PRECIP IS A BIT SLOWER TO THE AREA THAN THE SHORT RANGED GUIDANCE
WAS INDICATING AS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE. THUS I DELAYED THE INCREASE
OF POPS BY A FEW HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
TO BUMP UP TEMPS OVER THE MORRISVILLE/MONTPELIER REGION AS TEMPS
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 8 DEGREES LOW. DEW POINTS LOOK GOOD TO GO AND
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE 5-10KTS AND GUSTY
(UP TO 20KTS) AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 346 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10AM-12PM BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERMALLY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS BEING A MOSTLY A RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 2000` FEET AND THE VALLEYS SEEING
MOSTLY RAIN INITIALLY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
BEFORE THE COLD AIR CAN FILTER IN. EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO
RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.40" THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CORRESPONDING
SNOW TOTALS ONLY SEEING 1-3" INCHES MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST TO NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING ALTHOUGH
NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT LATE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN VALUES OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION. STORM TOTAL QPF FOR
THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT
RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN
THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S
TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24 HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR
HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260759
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10AM-12PM BEFORE OVERSPREADING
INTO VERMONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERMALLY BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS BEING A MOSTLY A
RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 2000` FEET AND THE VALLEYS SEEING MOSTLY RAIN
INITIALLY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN BEFORE THE
COLD AIR CAN FILTER IN. EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.10" TO 0.40" THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS ONLY
SEEING 1-3" INCHES MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST TO NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING ALTHOUGH
NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT LATE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN VALUES OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION. STORM TOTAL QPF FOR
THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT
RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN
THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S
TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24 HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR
HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260759
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10AM-12PM BEFORE OVERSPREADING
INTO VERMONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERMALLY BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS BEING A MOSTLY A
RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 2000` FEET AND THE VALLEYS SEEING MOSTLY RAIN
INITIALLY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN BEFORE THE
COLD AIR CAN FILTER IN. EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.10" TO 0.40" THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS ONLY
SEEING 1-3" INCHES MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST TO NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING ALTHOUGH
NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT LATE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN VALUES OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION. STORM TOTAL QPF FOR
THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT
RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN
THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S
TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24 HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR
HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM BREAKUP.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE
TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE
GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I
USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS.

THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE
MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER
THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE ARE BASICALLY IN THE LULL
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY AND
THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. IR/WV SATELLITE SHOW A BIT OF DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY SO I KEPT THE TREND OF LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WERE RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK SO I JUST
MATCHED THE FEW THAT WERE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE ARE BASICALLY IN THE LULL
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY AND
THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. IR/WV SATELLITE SHOW A BIT OF DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY SO I KEPT THE TREND OF LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WERE RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK SO I JUST
MATCHED THE FEW THAT WERE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE ARE BASICALLY IN THE LULL
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY AND
THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. IR/WV SATELLITE SHOW A BIT OF DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY SO I KEPT THE TREND OF LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WERE RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK SO I JUST
MATCHED THE FEW THAT WERE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE ARE BASICALLY IN THE LULL
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY AND
THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. IR/WV SATELLITE SHOW A BIT OF DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY SO I KEPT THE TREND OF LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WERE RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK SO I JUST
MATCHED THE FEW THAT WERE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A
COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260553
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE ARE BASICALLY IN THE LULL
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY AND
THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. IR/WV SATELLITE SHOW A BIT OF DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY SO I KEPT THE TREND OF LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WERE RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK SO I JUST
MATCHED THE FEW THAT WERE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260553
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE ARE BASICALLY IN THE LULL
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY AND
THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. IR/WV SATELLITE SHOW A BIT OF DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY SO I KEPT THE TREND OF LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WERE RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK SO I JUST
MATCHED THE FEW THAT WERE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260553
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE ARE BASICALLY IN THE LULL
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY AND
THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. IR/WV SATELLITE SHOW A BIT OF DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY SO I KEPT THE TREND OF LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WERE RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK SO I JUST
MATCHED THE FEW THAT WERE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260553
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE ARE BASICALLY IN THE LULL
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY AND
THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. IR/WV SATELLITE SHOW A BIT OF DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY SO I KEPT THE TREND OF LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WERE RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK SO I JUST
MATCHED THE FEW THAT WERE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z.
IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY
TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE
MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260536
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE ARE BASICALLY IN THE LULL
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY AND
THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. IR/WV SATELLITE SHOW A BIT OF DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY SO I KEPT THE TREND OF LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WERE RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK SO I JUST
MATCHED THE FEW THAT WERE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE AVIATION
PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS LOWER TO MAINLY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE ADDITIONAL AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS.

COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOLID BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
APPROACHING NORTHERN NY INTO THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME
35-45 DBZ ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH FRONTAL PRECIP. BASED ON
RECENT ALB METARS AND KENX DUAL-POLARIZED DOPPLER RADAR DATA,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH GRAUPEL/ICE PELLETS IN THESE HEAVIER ECHOES.
THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. IN ITS WAKE, CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST
AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY ABOVE STRATUS. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH
INTERVALS OF GUSTS. I`VE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT BTV AND PBG BASED
ON CXX VWP OF 50 KTS AT 2 KFT.

FOR THURSDAY: MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHES TOWARD
15-17Z. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES, INITIAL RAIN CHANGES
TO RAIN/WET SNOW MIX, THOUGH THAT CHANGEOVER OCCURS PRIOR TO 00Z
THURS ONLY AT MSS AND SLK. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE WITH FRONT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) AS
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260536
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE ARE BASICALLY IN THE LULL
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY AND
THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. IR/WV SATELLITE SHOW A BIT OF DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY SO I KEPT THE TREND OF LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WERE RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK SO I JUST
MATCHED THE FEW THAT WERE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE AVIATION
PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS LOWER TO MAINLY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE ADDITIONAL AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS.

COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOLID BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
APPROACHING NORTHERN NY INTO THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME
35-45 DBZ ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH FRONTAL PRECIP. BASED ON
RECENT ALB METARS AND KENX DUAL-POLARIZED DOPPLER RADAR DATA,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH GRAUPEL/ICE PELLETS IN THESE HEAVIER ECHOES.
THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. IN ITS WAKE, CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST
AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY ABOVE STRATUS. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH
INTERVALS OF GUSTS. I`VE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT BTV AND PBG BASED
ON CXX VWP OF 50 KTS AT 2 KFT.

FOR THURSDAY: MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHES TOWARD
15-17Z. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES, INITIAL RAIN CHANGES
TO RAIN/WET SNOW MIX, THOUGH THAT CHANGEOVER OCCURS PRIOR TO 00Z
THURS ONLY AT MSS AND SLK. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE WITH FRONT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) AS
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND
OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO
RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS NOW MOVED EAST INTO MAINE AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LOWERED
POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE AVIATION
PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS LOWER TO MAINLY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE ADDITIONAL AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS.

COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOLID BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
APPROACHING NORTHERN NY INTO THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME
35-45 DBZ ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH FRONTAL PRECIP. BASED ON
RECENT ALB METARS AND KENX DUAL-POLARIZED DOPPLER RADAR DATA,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH GRAUPEL/ICE PELLETS IN THESE HEAVIER ECHOES.
THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. IN ITS WAKE, CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST
AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY ABOVE STRATUS. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH
INTERVALS OF GUSTS. I`VE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT BTV AND PBG BASED
ON CXX VWP OF 50 KTS AT 2 KFT.

FOR THURSDAY: MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHES TOWARD
15-17Z. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES, INITIAL RAIN CHANGES
TO RAIN/WET SNOW MIX, THOUGH THAT CHANGEOVER OCCURS PRIOR TO 00Z
THURS ONLY AT MSS AND SLK. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE WITH FRONT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) AS
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1050 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS
INFORMED US THAT SERVICE MAY NOT BE RESTORED UNTIL SOMETIME LATER
THURSDAY. THUS...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN
THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS NOW MOVED EAST INTO MAINE AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LOWERED
POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE AVIATION
PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS LOWER TO MAINLY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE ADDITIONAL AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS.

COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOLID BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
APPROACHING NORTHERN NY INTO THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME
35-45 DBZ ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH FRONTAL PRECIP. BASED ON
RECENT ALB METARS AND KENX DUAL-POLARIZED DOPPLER RADAR DATA,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH GRAUPEL/ICE PELLETS IN THESE HEAVIER ECHOES.
THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. IN ITS WAKE, CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST
AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY ABOVE STRATUS. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH
INTERVALS OF GUSTS. I`VE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT BTV AND PBG BASED
ON CXX VWP OF 50 KTS AT 2 KFT.

FOR THURSDAY: MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHES TOWARD
15-17Z. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES, INITIAL RAIN CHANGES
TO RAIN/WET SNOW MIX, THOUGH THAT CHANGEOVER OCCURS PRIOR TO 00Z
THURS ONLY AT MSS AND SLK. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE WITH FRONT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) AS
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1050 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS
INFORMED US THAT SERVICE MAY NOT BE RESTORED UNTIL SOMETIME LATER
THURSDAY. THUS...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN
THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS NOW MOVED EAST INTO MAINE AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LOWERED
POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE AVIATION
PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS LOWER TO MAINLY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE ADDITIONAL AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS.

COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOLID BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
APPROACHING NORTHERN NY INTO THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME
35-45 DBZ ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH FRONTAL PRECIP. BASED ON
RECENT ALB METARS AND KENX DUAL-POLARIZED DOPPLER RADAR DATA,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH GRAUPEL/ICE PELLETS IN THESE HEAVIER ECHOES.
THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. IN ITS WAKE, CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST
AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY ABOVE STRATUS. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH
INTERVALS OF GUSTS. I`VE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT BTV AND PBG BASED
ON CXX VWP OF 50 KTS AT 2 KFT.

FOR THURSDAY: MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHES TOWARD
15-17Z. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES, INITIAL RAIN CHANGES
TO RAIN/WET SNOW MIX, THOUGH THAT CHANGEOVER OCCURS PRIOR TO 00Z
THURS ONLY AT MSS AND SLK. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE WITH FRONT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) AS
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1050 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS
INFORMED US THAT SERVICE MAY NOT BE RESTORED UNTIL SOMETIME LATER
THURSDAY. THUS...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN
THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS NOW MOVED EAST INTO MAINE AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LOWERED
POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE AVIATION
PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS LOWER TO MAINLY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE ADDITIONAL AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS.

COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOLID BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
APPROACHING NORTHERN NY INTO THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME
35-45 DBZ ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH FRONTAL PRECIP. BASED ON
RECENT ALB METARS AND KENX DUAL-POLARIZED DOPPLER RADAR DATA,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH GRAUPEL/ICE PELLETS IN THESE HEAVIER ECHOES.
THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. IN ITS WAKE, CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST
AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY ABOVE STRATUS. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH
INTERVALS OF GUSTS. I`VE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT BTV AND PBG BASED
ON CXX VWP OF 50 KTS AT 2 KFT.

FOR THURSDAY: MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHES TOWARD
15-17Z. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES, INITIAL RAIN CHANGES
TO RAIN/WET SNOW MIX, THOUGH THAT CHANGEOVER OCCURS PRIOR TO 00Z
THURS ONLY AT MSS AND SLK. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE WITH FRONT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) AS
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1050 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV
ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT
WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS
INFORMED US THAT SERVICE MAY NOT BE RESTORED UNTIL SOMETIME LATER
THURSDAY. THUS...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN
THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
803 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 802 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME...ALONG
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. SOME
GUSTY WINDS HAVE ACCOMPANIED THESE SHOWERS WHICH HAVE BEEN MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND HAVE ALSO HELP TO RAISE THE DEW POINTS UP
AS WELL. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS
INITIAL BAND OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHNAGES
HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIR OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS
EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES, WILL CAUSING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT
TO EXPEND MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE.
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, DO EXPECT SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH WITH EXCEPTION OF SW ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS
TO CLEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH A DRY SLOT
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.

CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR, EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE AVIATION
PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS LOWER TO MAINLY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE ADDITIONAL AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS.

COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOLID BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
APPROACHING NORTHERN NY INTO THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME
35-45 DBZ ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH FRONTAL PRECIP. BASED ON
RECENT ALB METARS AND KENX DUAL-POLARIZED DOPPLER RADAR DATA,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH GRAUPEL/ICE PELLETS IN THESE HEAVIER ECHOES.
THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. IN ITS WAKE, CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST
AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY ABOVE STRATUS. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH
INTERVALS OF GUSTS. I`VE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT BTV AND PBG BASED
ON CXX VWP OF 50 KTS AT 2 KFT.

FOR THURSDAY: MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHES TOWARD
15-17Z. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES, INITIAL RAIN CHANGES
TO RAIN/WET SNOW MIX, THOUGH THAT CHANGEOVER OCCURS PRIOR TO 00Z
THURS ONLY AT MSS AND SLK. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE WITH FRONT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) AS
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
803 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 802 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME...ALONG
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. SOME
GUSTY WINDS HAVE ACCOMPANIED THESE SHOWERS WHICH HAVE BEEN MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND HAVE ALSO HELP TO RAISE THE DEW POINTS UP
AS WELL. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS
INITIAL BAND OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHNAGES
HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIR OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS
EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES, WILL CAUSING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT
TO EXPEND MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE.
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, DO EXPECT SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH WITH EXCEPTION OF SW ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS
TO CLEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH A DRY SLOT
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.

CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR, EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE AVIATION
PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS LOWER TO MAINLY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE ADDITIONAL AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS.

COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOLID BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
APPROACHING NORTHERN NY INTO THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME
35-45 DBZ ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH FRONTAL PRECIP. BASED ON
RECENT ALB METARS AND KENX DUAL-POLARIZED DOPPLER RADAR DATA,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH GRAUPEL/ICE PELLETS IN THESE HEAVIER ECHOES.
THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. IN ITS WAKE, CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST
AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY ABOVE STRATUS. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH
INTERVALS OF GUSTS. I`VE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT BTV AND PBG BASED
ON CXX VWP OF 50 KTS AT 2 KFT.

FOR THURSDAY: MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHES TOWARD
15-17Z. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES, INITIAL RAIN CHANGES
TO RAIN/WET SNOW MIX, THOUGH THAT CHANGEOVER OCCURS PRIOR TO 00Z
THURS ONLY AT MSS AND SLK. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE WITH FRONT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) AS
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252310
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY,
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES,
WILL CAUSING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT TO EXPEND MUCH OF ITS
MOISTURE TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, DO EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
EXCEPTION OF SW ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH A DRY SLOT FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT.

CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR, EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE AVIATION
PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS LOWER TO MAINLY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE ADDITIONAL AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS.

COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOLID BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
APPROACHING NORTHERN NY INTO THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME
35-45 DBZ ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH FRONTAL PRECIP. BASED ON
RECENT ALB METARS AND KENX DUAL-POLARIZED DOPPLER RADAR DATA,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH GRAUPEL/ICE PELLETS IN THESE HEAVIER ECHOES.
THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. IN ITS WAKE, CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST
AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY ABOVE STRATUS. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH
INTERVALS OF GUSTS. I`VE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT BTV AND PBG BASED
ON CXX VWP OF 50 KTS AT 2 KFT.

FOR THURSDAY: MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHES TOWARD
15-17Z. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES, INITIAL RAIN CHANGES
TO RAIN/WET SNOW MIX, THOUGH THAT CHANGEOVER OCCURS PRIOR TO 00Z
THURS ONLY AT MSS AND SLK. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE WITH FRONT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) AS
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252310
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY,
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES,
WILL CAUSING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT TO EXPEND MUCH OF ITS
MOISTURE TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, DO EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
EXCEPTION OF SW ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH A DRY SLOT FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT.

CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR, EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE AVIATION
PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS LOWER TO MAINLY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE ADDITIONAL AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS.

COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOLID BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
APPROACHING NORTHERN NY INTO THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME
35-45 DBZ ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH FRONTAL PRECIP. BASED ON
RECENT ALB METARS AND KENX DUAL-POLARIZED DOPPLER RADAR DATA,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH GRAUPEL/ICE PELLETS IN THESE HEAVIER ECHOES.
THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. IN ITS WAKE, CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST
AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY ABOVE STRATUS. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH
INTERVALS OF GUSTS. I`VE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT BTV AND PBG BASED
ON CXX VWP OF 50 KTS AT 2 KFT.

FOR THURSDAY: MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHES TOWARD
15-17Z. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES, INITIAL RAIN CHANGES
TO RAIN/WET SNOW MIX, THOUGH THAT CHANGEOVER OCCURS PRIOR TO 00Z
THURS ONLY AT MSS AND SLK. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE WITH FRONT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) AS
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252310
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY,
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES,
WILL CAUSING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT TO EXPEND MUCH OF ITS
MOISTURE TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, DO EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
EXCEPTION OF SW ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH A DRY SLOT FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT.

CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR, EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE AVIATION
PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS LOWER TO MAINLY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE ADDITIONAL AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS.

COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOLID BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
APPROACHING NORTHERN NY INTO THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME
35-45 DBZ ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH FRONTAL PRECIP. BASED ON
RECENT ALB METARS AND KENX DUAL-POLARIZED DOPPLER RADAR DATA,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH GRAUPEL/ICE PELLETS IN THESE HEAVIER ECHOES.
THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. IN ITS WAKE, CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST
AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY ABOVE STRATUS. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH
INTERVALS OF GUSTS. I`VE ALSO MENTIONED LLWS AT BTV AND PBG BASED
ON CXX VWP OF 50 KTS AT 2 KFT.

FOR THURSDAY: MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP APPROACHES TOWARD
15-17Z. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES, INITIAL RAIN CHANGES
TO RAIN/WET SNOW MIX, THOUGH THAT CHANGEOVER OCCURS PRIOR TO 00Z
THURS ONLY AT MSS AND SLK. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE WITH FRONT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) AS
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 252026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY,
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES,
WILL CAUSING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT TO EXPEND MUCH OF ITS
MOISTURE TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, DO EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
EXCEPTION OF SW ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH A DRY SLOT FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT.

CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR, EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 252026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY,
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES,
WILL CAUSING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT TO EXPEND MUCH OF ITS
MOISTURE TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, DO EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
EXCEPTION OF SW ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH A DRY SLOT FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT.

CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR, EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY,
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES,
WILL CAUSING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT TO EXPEND MUCH OF ITS
MOISTURE TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, DO EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
EXCEPTION OF SW ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH A DRY SLOT FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT.

CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR, EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY,
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES,
WILL CAUSING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT TO EXPEND MUCH OF ITS
MOISTURE TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, DO EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
EXCEPTION OF SW ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH A DRY SLOT FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT.

CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR, EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 252026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY,
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES,
WILL CAUSING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT TO EXPEND MUCH OF ITS
MOISTURE TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, DO EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
EXCEPTION OF SW ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH A DRY SLOT FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT.

CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR, EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY,
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES,
WILL CAUSING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT TO EXPEND MUCH OF ITS
MOISTURE TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, DO EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
EXCEPTION OF SW ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH A DRY SLOT FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT.

CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR, EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEW
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND STRONGER
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.50 INCH
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE N-NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOCUSES THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TERRAIN. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ENDING SNOW SHOWERS BUT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.85 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY AND
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING
SNOWMELT, EXPECT SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

DRY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE COLD AND DRY WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THOUGH LIGHT...CAN BE EXPECTED...BEGINNING AS SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 426 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND
JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST
RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER
TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL
SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN
THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF.

FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS
BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WITH 15 TO 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THEN SATURATE THE AIR.
SO HAVE PUSHED INCREASE OF POPS BY 2-3 HOURS.

WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF
PRECIPITATION STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. SO EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS.
EXCEPTION IS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE SOME CHANNELING FROM
THE NE IS OPPOSITE FLOW ALOFT WITH STABLE LAYER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH
EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE
AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS
FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT.
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S. MORE
OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY
TO MORE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE
LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%)
BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY. EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS
POINT, I`M REALLY IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE
EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW
AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL
CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY
EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH
MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST
REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID
TEENS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WITH 15 TO 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THEN SATURATE THE AIR.
SO HAVE PUSHED INCREASE OF POPS BY 2-3 HOURS.

WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF
PRECIPITATION STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. SO EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS.
EXCEPTION IS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE SOME CHANNELING FROM
THE NE IS OPPOSITE FLOW ALOFT WITH STABLE LAYER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH
EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE
AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS
FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT.
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S. MORE
OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY
TO MORE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE
LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%)
BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY. EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS
POINT, I`M REALLY IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE
EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW
AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL
CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY
EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH
MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST
REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID
TEENS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WITH 15 TO 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THEN SATURATE THE AIR.
SO HAVE PUSHED INCREASE OF POPS BY 2-3 HOURS.

WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF
PRECIPITATION STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. SO EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS.
EXCEPTION IS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE SOME CHANNELING FROM
THE NE IS OPPOSITE FLOW ALOFT WITH STABLE LAYER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH
EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE
AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS
FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT.
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S. MORE
OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY
TO MORE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE
LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%)
BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY. EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS
POINT, I`M REALLY IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE
EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW
AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL
CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY
EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH
MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST
REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID
TEENS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WITH 15 TO 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THEN SATURATE THE AIR.
SO HAVE PUSHED INCREASE OF POPS BY 2-3 HOURS.

WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF
PRECIPITATION STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. SO EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS.
EXCEPTION IS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE SOME CHANNELING FROM
THE NE IS OPPOSITE FLOW ALOFT WITH STABLE LAYER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH
EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE
AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS
FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT.
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S. MORE
OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY
TO MORE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE
LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%)
BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY. EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS
POINT, I`M REALLY IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE
EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW
AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL
CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY
EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH
MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST
REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID
TEENS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS THEN CLOUDS WILL ENCROACH UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST, SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DEPART
TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH
EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE
AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS
FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT.
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S. MORE
OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY
TO MORE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE
LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%)
BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY. EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS
POINT, I`M REALLY IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE
EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW
AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL
CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY
EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH
MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST
REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID
TEENS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS THEN CLOUDS WILL ENCROACH UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST, SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DEPART
TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH
EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE
AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS
FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT.
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S. MORE
OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY
TO MORE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE
LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%)
BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY. EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS
POINT, I`M REALLY IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE
EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW
AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL
CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY
EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH
MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST
REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID
TEENS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS THEN CLOUDS WILL ENCROACH UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST, SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DEPART
TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH
EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE
AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS
FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT.
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S. MORE
OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY
TO MORE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE
LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%)
BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY. EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS
POINT, I`M REALLY IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE
EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW
AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL
CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY
EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH
MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST
REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID
TEENS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS THEN CLOUDS WILL ENCROACH UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST, SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DEPART
TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH
EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE
AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS
FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT.
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S. MORE
OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY
TO MORE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE
LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%)
BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY. EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS
POINT, I`M REALLY IN WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE
EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW
AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL
CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY
EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH
MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST
REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID
TEENS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA...MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH AROUND 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS THEN CLOUDS WILL ENCROACH UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST, SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DEPART
TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SOUTHERLY BEFORE PICKING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES THUS I DID NOT CARRY ANYTHING ABOUT WIND
SHEAR IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS THEN CLOUDS WILL ENCROACH UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST, SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DEPART
TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SOUTHERLY BEFORE PICKING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES THUS I DID NOT CARRY ANYTHING ABOUT WIND
SHEAR IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS THEN CLOUDS WILL ENCROACH UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST, SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DEPART
TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SOUTHERLY BEFORE PICKING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES THUS I DID NOT CARRY ANYTHING ABOUT WIND
SHEAR IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS THEN CLOUDS WILL ENCROACH UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST, SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DEPART
TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SOUTHERLY BEFORE PICKING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES THUS I DID NOT CARRY ANYTHING ABOUT WIND
SHEAR IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN
EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SOUTHERLY BEFORE PICKING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES THUS I DID NOT CARRY ANYTHING ABOUT WIND
SHEAR IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN
EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SOUTHERLY BEFORE PICKING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES THUS I DID NOT CARRY ANYTHING ABOUT WIND
SHEAR IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN
EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SOUTHERLY BEFORE PICKING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES THUS I DID NOT CARRY ANYTHING ABOUT WIND
SHEAR IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN
EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SOUTHERLY BEFORE PICKING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND MVFR/LOW VFR
AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO 2000 FT
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NOT AT THE TAF SITES THUS I DID NOT CARRY ANYTHING ABOUT WIND
SHEAR IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251055
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN
EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS (SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT BY 00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND
MVFR/LOW VFR AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO 2000 FT HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NOT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251055
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN
EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS (SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT BY 00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND
MVFR/LOW VFR AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO 2000 FT HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NOT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251055
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN
EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS (SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT BY 00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND
MVFR/LOW VFR AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO 2000 FT HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NOT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251055
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN
EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS (SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT BY 00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND
MVFR/LOW VFR AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO 2000 FT HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NOT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN
EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS (SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT BY 00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND
MVFR/LOW VFR AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO 2000 FT HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NOT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN
EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS (SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT BY 00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND
MVFR/LOW VFR AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO 2000 FT HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NOT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN
EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS (SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT BY 00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND
MVFR/LOW VFR AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO 2000 FT HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NOT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY...WE CAN
EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER
40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION. SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD
FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT PROVIDE LIFT. PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN YORK
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S. MORE OF A MIX EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VERMONT WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS. FOR
MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY... ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE LEADING TO COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EXPECT NORTH WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

SUNDAY... BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINA`S WILL HAVE A WEAK GRASP OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS LOCALLY TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30`S TO
NEAR 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN
AN EXACT SOLUTION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED
SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IS RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.  I TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF
BRINGING IN HIGH CHANGE POPS (45-55%) BETWEEN 12-18Z ON MONDAY.
EXPECT INITIALLY FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING IN THE AFTERNOON TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT, I`M REALLY IN
WAIT AND SEE MODE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THE
MODELS AREN`T REAL CONSISTENT ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS END AS
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
ECMWF PICKS UP SPEED OF THE LOW AND QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SO I`LL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE TWO DIVERGING SOLUTIONS LEAVE
PLENTY TO BE DESIRED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS (SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT BY 00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND
MVFR/LOW VFR AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO 2000 FT HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NOT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT OF SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 18Z THURSDAY TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARDS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1
TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF
THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3
FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE
TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS
IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON/RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1236 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AND BLEND WITH NUMBERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHS
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...STILL LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS (SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT BY 00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND
MVFR/LOW VFR AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO 2000 FT HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NOT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1236 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AND BLEND WITH NUMBERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHS
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...STILL LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS (SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT BY 00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND
MVFR/LOW VFR AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO 2000 FT HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NOT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1236 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AND BLEND WITH NUMBERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHS
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...STILL LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 17-18Z.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT BEGINNING 19-20Z THEN IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS (SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25) AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE RAIN FALLS. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT BY 00Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO AROUND
MVFR/LOW VFR AT 2.5-3.5KFT. LLWS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING DECENTLY STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO 2000 FT HOWEVER THAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NOT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1236 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AND BLEND WITH NUMBERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHS
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...STILL LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS & WIND
SHEAR, WITH DEVELOPING RAIN IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH STEADILY INCREASES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-22 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS. BASED ON OBS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, GUIDANCE CEILING PROGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 20Z LOOKS
OVERDONE. THEREFORE, KEPT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
20-22Z WITH VCSH DUE TO WARM FRONTAL RAIN/PRECIP. WIND FIELDS
INCREASE TO SOUTH AROUND 40 KTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION, LLWS IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z
THURSDAY, BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON IF SURFACE GUSTS CAN BE
MAINTAINED.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1236 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AND BLEND WITH NUMBERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHS
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...STILL LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS & WIND
SHEAR, WITH DEVELOPING RAIN IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH STEADILY INCREASES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-22 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS. BASED ON OBS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, GUIDANCE CEILING PROGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 20Z LOOKS
OVERDONE. THEREFORE, KEPT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
20-22Z WITH VCSH DUE TO WARM FRONTAL RAIN/PRECIP. WIND FIELDS
INCREASE TO SOUTH AROUND 40 KTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION, LLWS IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z
THURSDAY, BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON IF SURFACE GUSTS CAN BE
MAINTAINED.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1236 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AND BLEND WITH NUMBERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHS
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...STILL LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS & WIND
SHEAR, WITH DEVELOPING RAIN IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH STEADILY INCREASES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-22 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS. BASED ON OBS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, GUIDANCE CEILING PROGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 20Z LOOKS
OVERDONE. THEREFORE, KEPT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
20-22Z WITH VCSH DUE TO WARM FRONTAL RAIN/PRECIP. WIND FIELDS
INCREASE TO SOUTH AROUND 40 KTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION, LLWS IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z
THURSDAY, BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON IF SURFACE GUSTS CAN BE
MAINTAINED.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1236 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AND BLEND WITH NUMBERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHS
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...STILL LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS & WIND
SHEAR, WITH DEVELOPING RAIN IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH STEADILY INCREASES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-22 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS. BASED ON OBS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, GUIDANCE CEILING PROGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 20Z LOOKS
OVERDONE. THEREFORE, KEPT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
20-22Z WITH VCSH DUE TO WARM FRONTAL RAIN/PRECIP. WIND FIELDS
INCREASE TO SOUTH AROUND 40 KTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION, LLWS IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z
THURSDAY, BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON IF SURFACE GUSTS CAN BE
MAINTAINED.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO MATCH HOURLY T/TD DATA WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLEAR AND QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ANOTHER QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT IN ON TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY
SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH ANY LIGHT WINDS TRENDING CALM LEADING TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT ON AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS & WIND
SHEAR, WITH DEVELOPING RAIN IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH STEADILY INCREASES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-22 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS. BASED ON OBS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, GUIDANCE CEILING PROGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 20Z LOOKS
OVERDONE. THEREFORE, KEPT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
20-22Z WITH VCSH DUE TO WARM FRONTAL RAIN/PRECIP. WIND FIELDS
INCREASE TO SOUTH AROUND 40 KTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION, LLWS IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z
THURSDAY, BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON IF SURFACE GUSTS CAN BE
MAINTAINED.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO MATCH HOURLY T/TD DATA WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLEAR AND QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ANOTHER QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT IN ON TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY
SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH ANY LIGHT WINDS TRENDING CALM LEADING TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT ON AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS & WIND
SHEAR, WITH DEVELOPING RAIN IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH STEADILY INCREASES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-22 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS. BASED ON OBS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, GUIDANCE CEILING PROGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 20Z LOOKS
OVERDONE. THEREFORE, KEPT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
20-22Z WITH VCSH DUE TO WARM FRONTAL RAIN/PRECIP. WIND FIELDS
INCREASE TO SOUTH AROUND 40 KTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION, LLWS IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z
THURSDAY, BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON IF SURFACE GUSTS CAN BE
MAINTAINED.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO MATCH HOURLY T/TD DATA WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLEAR AND QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ANOTHER QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT IN ON TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY
SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH ANY LIGHT WINDS TRENDING CALM LEADING TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT ON AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS & WIND
SHEAR, WITH DEVELOPING RAIN IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH STEADILY INCREASES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-22 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS. BASED ON OBS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, GUIDANCE CEILING PROGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 20Z LOOKS
OVERDONE. THEREFORE, KEPT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
20-22Z WITH VCSH DUE TO WARM FRONTAL RAIN/PRECIP. WIND FIELDS
INCREASE TO SOUTH AROUND 40 KTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION, LLWS IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z
THURSDAY, BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON IF SURFACE GUSTS CAN BE
MAINTAINED.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242322
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT IN ON
TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH ANY LIGHT WINDS
TRENDING CALM LEADING TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH LIKE
LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT ON AVERAGE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS & WIND
SHEAR, WITH DEVELOPING RAIN IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH STEADILY INCREASES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-22 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS. BASED ON OBS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, GUIDANCE CEILING PROGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 20Z LOOKS
OVERDONE. THEREFORE, KEPT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
20-22Z WITH VCSH DUE TO WARM FRONTAL RAIN/PRECIP. WIND FIELDS
INCREASE TO SOUTH AROUND 40 KTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION, LLWS IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z
THURSDAY, BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON IF SURFACE GUSTS CAN BE
MAINTAINED.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242322
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT IN ON
TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH ANY LIGHT WINDS
TRENDING CALM LEADING TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH LIKE
LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT ON AVERAGE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS & WIND
SHEAR, WITH DEVELOPING RAIN IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH STEADILY INCREASES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-22 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS. BASED ON OBS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, GUIDANCE CEILING PROGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 20Z LOOKS
OVERDONE. THEREFORE, KEPT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
20-22Z WITH VCSH DUE TO WARM FRONTAL RAIN/PRECIP. WIND FIELDS
INCREASE TO SOUTH AROUND 40 KTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION, LLWS IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z
THURSDAY, BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON IF SURFACE GUSTS CAN BE
MAINTAINED.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242322
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT IN ON
TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH ANY LIGHT WINDS
TRENDING CALM LEADING TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH LIKE
LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT ON AVERAGE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS & WIND
SHEAR, WITH DEVELOPING RAIN IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH STEADILY INCREASES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-22 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS. BASED ON OBS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, GUIDANCE CEILING PROGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 20Z LOOKS
OVERDONE. THEREFORE, KEPT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
20-22Z WITH VCSH DUE TO WARM FRONTAL RAIN/PRECIP. WIND FIELDS
INCREASE TO SOUTH AROUND 40 KTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION, LLWS IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z
THURSDAY, BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON IF SURFACE GUSTS CAN BE
MAINTAINED.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242322
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT IN ON
TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH ANY LIGHT WINDS
TRENDING CALM LEADING TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH LIKE
LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT ON AVERAGE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS & WIND
SHEAR, WITH DEVELOPING RAIN IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH STEADILY INCREASES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-22 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS. BASED ON OBS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, GUIDANCE CEILING PROGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 20Z LOOKS
OVERDONE. THEREFORE, KEPT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
20-22Z WITH VCSH DUE TO WARM FRONTAL RAIN/PRECIP. WIND FIELDS
INCREASE TO SOUTH AROUND 40 KTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION, LLWS IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z
THURSDAY, BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON IF SURFACE GUSTS CAN BE
MAINTAINED.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT IN ON
TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH ANY LIGHT WINDS
TRENDING CALM LEADING TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH LIKE
LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT ON AVERAGE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT AREAS OF LLWS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT IN ON
TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH ANY LIGHT WINDS
TRENDING CALM LEADING TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH LIKE
LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT ON AVERAGE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL START THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ENTERING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT WARM PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT THE ONSET. FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT SHIFT INTO THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WIND AROUND, EXPECT MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO RUN RATHER MILD RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS COME
THURSDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.

BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SHORT LIVED AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75-1"
THURSDAY WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
RIVERS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT AREAS OF LLWS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT AREAS OF LLWS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT
WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE
M20S-L30S.

CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT AREAS OF LLWS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS.
RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND
FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS,
INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE
WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN
SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM
AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE
COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM
THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED
TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT
PARTS TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH A VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD
FORECAST UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY FORECAST CLOUDS WILL BE
HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH A VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD
FORECAST UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY FORECAST CLOUDS WILL BE
HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH A VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD
FORECAST UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY FORECAST CLOUDS WILL BE
HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH A VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD
FORECAST UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY FORECAST CLOUDS WILL BE
HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
940 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT TUESDAY...INHERITED FORECAST FOR TODAY IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WE`RE QUICKLY WARMING UP AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL,
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 649 AM...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ITS A VERY
COLD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE MARCH WITH MANY PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WELL BELOW ZERO. BUT THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH WAS OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW
DAYS FINALLY LIFTS OUT TODAY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.
WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH A VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD
FORECAST UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY FORECAST CLOUDS WILL BE
HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
940 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT TUESDAY...INHERITED FORECAST FOR TODAY IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WE`RE QUICKLY WARMING UP AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL,
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 649 AM...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ITS A VERY
COLD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE MARCH WITH MANY PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WELL BELOW ZERO. BUT THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH WAS OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW
DAYS FINALLY LIFTS OUT TODAY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.
WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH A VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD
FORECAST UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY FORECAST CLOUDS WILL BE
HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
940 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT TUESDAY...INHERITED FORECAST FOR TODAY IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WE`RE QUICKLY WARMING UP AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL,
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 649 AM...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ITS A VERY
COLD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE MARCH WITH MANY PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WELL BELOW ZERO. BUT THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH WAS OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW
DAYS FINALLY LIFTS OUT TODAY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.
WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH A VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD
FORECAST UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY FORECAST CLOUDS WILL BE
HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
940 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT TUESDAY...INHERITED FORECAST FOR TODAY IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WE`RE QUICKLY WARMING UP AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL,
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 649 AM...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ITS A VERY
COLD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE MARCH WITH MANY PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WELL BELOW ZERO. BUT THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH WAS OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW
DAYS FINALLY LIFTS OUT TODAY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.
WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH A VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD
FORECAST UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY FORECAST CLOUDS WILL BE
HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241054
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ITS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS
THE REGION FOR LATE MARCH WITH MANY PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WELL BELOW ZERO. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR ALOFT WHICH WAS OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS FINALLY
LIFTS OUT TODAY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY. WE CAN
EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH A VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD
FORECAST UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY FORECAST CLOUDS WILL BE
HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241054
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ITS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS
THE REGION FOR LATE MARCH WITH MANY PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WELL BELOW ZERO. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR ALOFT WHICH WAS OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS FINALLY
LIFTS OUT TODAY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY. WE CAN
EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH A VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD
FORECAST UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY FORECAST CLOUDS WILL BE
HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241054
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ITS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS
THE REGION FOR LATE MARCH WITH MANY PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WELL BELOW ZERO. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR ALOFT WHICH WAS OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS FINALLY
LIFTS OUT TODAY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY. WE CAN
EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH A VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD
FORECAST UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY FORECAST CLOUDS WILL BE
HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241054
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ITS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS
THE REGION FOR LATE MARCH WITH MANY PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WELL BELOW ZERO. BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR ALOFT WHICH WAS OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS FINALLY
LIFTS OUT TODAY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY. WE CAN
EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A
TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION
SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND
LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL
RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATE THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEMI QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS EXPECTED QPF FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.30" INCH RANGE.  BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST, EXPECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THIS EVENT THUS WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

FRIDAY... THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT WITH TEMPS NEAR 30
FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF CLEARING AND SHOULD GO FROM OVERCAST TO MORE OF A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK.

SATURDAY... COLD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND A BROAD REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN, EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TEENS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRONT IS THAT AS WE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL THAT THE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 30`S RATHER THAN THE 20`S SUCH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION AND
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE EXCITING NEWS IS THAT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, MODERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLY REACHING 40. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY... THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LEAVES VERY LITTLE WITH
REGARDS TO CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION. I WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST REGION.
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE STRUCTURE/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 40 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH A VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD
FORECAST UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY FORECAST CLOUDS WILL BE
HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 402 PM EDT MONDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ASSESSED THAT IT`S A
MAJOR REPAIR...AND PARTS ARE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE INSTALLATION WILL REQUIRE LIKELY A FULL DAY
SO THE DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABSENCE OF RADAR DATA FROM THE SITE WHILE PARTS
ARE AWAITED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




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