Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290619
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS STRETCH ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER.
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS ARE SUBZERO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO STAY
ABOVE ZERO WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AS WELL AS THE HIGHER SUMMITS AS AN
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
INITIAL SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND
LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHADOWING ACROSS THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z
FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850 TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR
EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING
LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES. IN
ADDITION...SYSTEM WILL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES THRU 00Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING
OF THE LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL
BTV4KM SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING
TEMPS...COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FLASH FREEZE FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -20F
AND -40F ACROSS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 18Z THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY. BETWEEN 00Z-06Z FRIDAY EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. EXPECTING MAINLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE
20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21Z-24Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY-12Z SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN
SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 290619
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS STRETCH ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER.
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS ARE SUBZERO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO STAY
ABOVE ZERO WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AS WELL AS THE HIGHER SUMMITS AS AN
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
INITIAL SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND
LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHADOWING ACROSS THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z
FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850 TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR
EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING
LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES. IN
ADDITION...SYSTEM WILL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES THRU 00Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING
OF THE LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL
BTV4KM SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING
TEMPS...COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FLASH FREEZE FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -20F
AND -40F ACROSS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 18Z THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY. BETWEEN 00Z-06Z FRIDAY EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. EXPECTING MAINLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE
20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21Z-24Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY-12Z SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN
SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290455
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1155 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS STRETCH ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER.
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS ARE SUBZERO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO STAY
ABOVE ZERO WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AS WELL AS THE HIGHER SUMMITS AS AN
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
INITIAL SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND
LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHADOWING ACROSS THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z
FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850 TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR
EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING
LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES. IN
ADDITION...SYSTEM WILL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES THRU 00Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING
OF THE LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL
BTV4KM SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING
TEMPS...COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FLASH FREEZE FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -20F
AND -40F ACROSS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING AT MSS/SLK...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AND
IMPACTS WILL COME AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHERLY AT MOST SITES ON THURSDAY FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS AT MSS WILL TURN NORTHEAST
FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN
SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 290455
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1155 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS STRETCH ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER.
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS ARE SUBZERO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO STAY
ABOVE ZERO WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AS WELL AS THE HIGHER SUMMITS AS AN
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
INITIAL SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND
LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHADOWING ACROSS THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z
FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850 TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR
EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING
LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES. IN
ADDITION...SYSTEM WILL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES THRU 00Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING
OF THE LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL
BTV4KM SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING
TEMPS...COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FLASH FREEZE FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -20F
AND -40F ACROSS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING AT MSS/SLK...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AND
IMPACTS WILL COME AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHERLY AT MOST SITES ON THURSDAY FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS AT MSS WILL TURN NORTHEAST
FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN
SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290242
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECOUPLE ACROSS
THE REGION EXCEPT FOR INSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. DRAINAGE WINDS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ARE
KEEPING THE TEMPS UP RELATIVE TO SURROUNDING AREAS. AT THE BTV
AIRPORT WE ARE LOOKING AT EASTERLY 6-7 KTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE LAKE WHEREAS IN PLATTSBURG THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND TEMPS
ARE FALLING QUICKLY UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO KEEP
THE TEMPS UP AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE. THE MODERATE SURFACE
INVERSION IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGHER PEAKS WHERE AT WHITEFACE
MOUNTAIN THE CURRENT TEMP IS 16 AT 4880` AND IS 19 AT MT MANSFIELD
AT 4000`. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO REFLECT THE THERMAL DECOUPLING OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS
OF 615 NEWPORT IS ALREADY DOWN TO 0 UNDER CALM WINDS. WV/IR
SATELLITE CONTINUE TO PAINT A COLD PICTURE AS NORTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INTO THE -5 TO -15
RANGE WITH THE COLDEST SITES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR -20. INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TEMPS WILL
RANGE SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO. CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY
PERFECT FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A STRONG INVERSION
WITH DECOUPLED CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND FRESH SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC
LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45
TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS
THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS
5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES
PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850
TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED
OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW
ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES
THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE
LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM
SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING AT MSS/SLK...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AND
IMPACTS WILL COME AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHERLY AT MOST SITES ON THURSDAY FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS AT MSS WILL TURN NORTHEAST
FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN
SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290242
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECOUPLE ACROSS
THE REGION EXCEPT FOR INSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. DRAINAGE WINDS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ARE
KEEPING THE TEMPS UP RELATIVE TO SURROUNDING AREAS. AT THE BTV
AIRPORT WE ARE LOOKING AT EASTERLY 6-7 KTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE LAKE WHEREAS IN PLATTSBURG THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND TEMPS
ARE FALLING QUICKLY UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO KEEP
THE TEMPS UP AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE. THE MODERATE SURFACE
INVERSION IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGHER PEAKS WHERE AT WHITEFACE
MOUNTAIN THE CURRENT TEMP IS 16 AT 4880` AND IS 19 AT MT MANSFIELD
AT 4000`. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO REFLECT THE THERMAL DECOUPLING OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS
OF 615 NEWPORT IS ALREADY DOWN TO 0 UNDER CALM WINDS. WV/IR
SATELLITE CONTINUE TO PAINT A COLD PICTURE AS NORTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INTO THE -5 TO -15
RANGE WITH THE COLDEST SITES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR -20. INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TEMPS WILL
RANGE SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO. CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY
PERFECT FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A STRONG INVERSION
WITH DECOUPLED CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND FRESH SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC
LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45
TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS
THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS
5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES
PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850
TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED
OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW
ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES
THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE
LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM
SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING AT MSS/SLK...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AND
IMPACTS WILL COME AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHERLY AT MOST SITES ON THURSDAY FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS AT MSS WILL TURN NORTHEAST
FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN
SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 282346
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
646 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 623 PM EST WEDNESDAY... CURRENT SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO REFLECT THE THERMAL DECOUPLING OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. AS OF 615 NEWPORT IS ALREADY DOWN TO 0 UNDER CALM WINDS.
WV/IR SATELLITE CONTINUE TO PAINT A COLD PICTURE AS NORTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INTO THE -5 TO -15
RANGE WITH THE COLDEST SITES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR -20. INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TEMPS WILL
RANGE SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO. CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY
PERFECT FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A STRONG INVERSION
WITH DECOUPLED CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND FRESH SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHILE
S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROF IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...BASED ON
TRICKY LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C
AND -8C BY 12Z THURS...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY COLD
BL TEMPS UNDER A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. THIS WL SUPPORT A LARGE
RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM -20F SLK/NEK TO -15F TO -5F CENTRAL VT
VALLEYS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR 0F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 5 TO
10F MIDSLOPES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC
LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45
TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS
THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS
5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES
PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850
TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED
OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW
ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES
THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE
LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM
SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING AT MSS/SLK...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AND
IMPACTS WILL COME AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHERLY AT MOST SITES ON THURSDAY FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS AT MSS WILL TURN NORTHEAST
FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN
SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 282346
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
646 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 623 PM EST WEDNESDAY... CURRENT SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO REFLECT THE THERMAL DECOUPLING OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. AS OF 615 NEWPORT IS ALREADY DOWN TO 0 UNDER CALM WINDS.
WV/IR SATELLITE CONTINUE TO PAINT A COLD PICTURE AS NORTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INTO THE -5 TO -15
RANGE WITH THE COLDEST SITES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR -20. INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TEMPS WILL
RANGE SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO. CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY
PERFECT FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A STRONG INVERSION
WITH DECOUPLED CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND FRESH SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHILE
S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROF IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...BASED ON
TRICKY LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C
AND -8C BY 12Z THURS...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY COLD
BL TEMPS UNDER A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. THIS WL SUPPORT A LARGE
RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM -20F SLK/NEK TO -15F TO -5F CENTRAL VT
VALLEYS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR 0F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 5 TO
10F MIDSLOPES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC
LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45
TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS
THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS
5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES
PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850
TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED
OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW
ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES
THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE
LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM
SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING AT MSS/SLK...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AND
IMPACTS WILL COME AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHERLY AT MOST SITES ON THURSDAY FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS AT MSS WILL TURN NORTHEAST
FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN
SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 623 PM EST WEDNESDAY... CURRENT SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO REFLECT THE THERMAL DECOUPLING OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. AS OF 615 NEWPORT IS ALREADY DOWN TO 0 UNDER CALM WINDS.
WV/IR SATELLITE CONTINUE TO PAINT A COLD PICTURE AS NORTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INTO THE -5 TO -15
RANGE WITH THE COLDEST SITES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR -20. INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TEMPS WILL
RANGE SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO. CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY
PERFECT FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A STRONG INVERSION
WITH DECOUPLED CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND FRESH SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHILE
S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROF IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...BASED ON
TRICKY LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C
AND -8C BY 12Z THURS...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY COLD
BL TEMPS UNDER A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. THIS WL SUPPORT A LARGE
RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM -20F SLK/NEK TO -15F TO -5F CENTRAL VT
VALLEYS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR 0F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 5 TO
10F MIDSLOPES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC
LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45
TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS
THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS
5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES
PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850
TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED
OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW
ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES
THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE
LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM
SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BY 00Z ALL SITES
WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS ABATING TO NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VT. PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR BY 00Z
FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CIGS LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 282038
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
338 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHILE S/W
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...BASED ON
TRICKY LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C
AND -8C BY 12Z THURS...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY COLD BL
TEMPS UNDER A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. THIS WL SUPPORT A LARGE
RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM -20F SLK/NEK TO -15F TO -5F CENTRAL VT
VALLEYS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR 0F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 5 TO
10F MIDSLOPES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC
LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45
TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS
THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS
5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES
PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850
TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED
OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW
ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES
THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE
LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM
SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BY 00Z ALL SITES
WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS ABATING TO NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VT. PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR BY 00Z
FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CIGS LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282038
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
338 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHILE S/W
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...BASED ON
TRICKY LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C
AND -8C BY 12Z THURS...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY COLD BL
TEMPS UNDER A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. THIS WL SUPPORT A LARGE
RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM -20F SLK/NEK TO -15F TO -5F CENTRAL VT
VALLEYS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR 0F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 5 TO
10F MIDSLOPES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC
LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45
TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS
THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS
5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES
PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850
TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED
OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW
ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES
THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE
LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM
SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BY 00Z ALL SITES
WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS ABATING TO NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VT. PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR BY 00Z
FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CIGS LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 282032
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHILE S/W
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...BASED ON
TRICKY LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C
AND -8C BY 12Z THURS...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY COLD BL
TEMPS UNDER A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. THIS WL SUPPORT A LARGE
RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM -20F SLK/NEK TO -15F TO -5F CENTRAL VT
VALLEYS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR 0F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 5 TO
10F MIDSLOPES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC
LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45
TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS
THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS
5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES
PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850
TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED
OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW
ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES
THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE
LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM
SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BY 00Z ALL SITES
WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS ABATING TO NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VT. PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR BY 00Z
FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CIGS LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 282032
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHILE S/W
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...BASED ON
TRICKY LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C
AND -8C BY 12Z THURS...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY COLD BL
TEMPS UNDER A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. THIS WL SUPPORT A LARGE
RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM -20F SLK/NEK TO -15F TO -5F CENTRAL VT
VALLEYS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR 0F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 5 TO
10F MIDSLOPES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC
LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45
TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS
THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS
5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES
PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850
TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED
OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW
ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES
THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE
LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM
SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BY 00Z ALL SITES
WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS ABATING TO NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VT. PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR BY 00Z
FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CIGS LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION. CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD. BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1242 PM EST WEDNESDAY...ADJUSTED GRIDS BASED ON CRNT
CONDITIONS. THIS SUPPORTS CLRING SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AND
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE TEENS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS
AFTN.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY INTO
THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY LOSING INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER
CONDITIONS...BEING GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS WINDS SLOWLY ABATE AND ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY
DAYS END AS HIGHS TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS PER BLENDED MODEL
OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NARROW RIDGE AXIS THEN BUILDS ATOP
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH A
FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS IDEAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED AND I TRENDED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
OFFERING MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -15F RANGE. CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY WILL EXIST HOWEVER AND I IMAGINE OUR TYPICAL COLDER
LOCALES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NC/NE VT MAY APPROACH -20F BY
MORNING. MILDEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AROUND ZERO GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS EAST DURING THURSDAY AND IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ADVANCING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING A MEAN SLV TRACK ALONG THE INTL
BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ENERGY SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARD
EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE TAPERING BACK.

HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOW TOTALS...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH/NRN MTS WHERE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE TYPES
OF CLIPPER-LOW TRACKS GENERALLY FAVOR THE FAR NRN SLV INTO THE
MONTREAL AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS HOWEVER. IN THIS AREA STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AS MEAN NORTHEASTERLY PBL FLOW
IS INTERSECTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL...BUT EARLY MODEL OUTPUT USING MEAN 15:1
SNOW RATIOS (16-17:1 MTS) WOULD SUGGEST AS MUCH SHOWING A GENERAL
3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHER TOTALS (FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OR SO) IN A SW-NE STRIPE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER FROM
MASSENA THROUGH MONTREAL TOWARD SHERBROOKE. SOME SHADOWING ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF LOW TRACK VERIFIES.
INDEED...CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET OF 45 KTS IN THE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BRIDGED ALOFT
BY A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...CLASSIC SHADOWING
SIGNATURES. AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT I`VE LEANED
TOWARD CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE OFFERED
WITH HIGH THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND HOLDING NEAR
STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS SYSTEM PASSES
DURING FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO
THE REGION. THUS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH READINGS FALLING STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BY 00Z ALL SITES
WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS ABATING TO NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VT. PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR BY 00Z
FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CIGS LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION. CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD. BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1242 PM EST WEDNESDAY...ADJUSTED GRIDS BASED ON CRNT
CONDITIONS. THIS SUPPORTS CLRING SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AND
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE TEENS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS
AFTN.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY INTO
THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY LOSING INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER
CONDITIONS...BEING GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS WINDS SLOWLY ABATE AND ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY
DAYS END AS HIGHS TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS PER BLENDED MODEL
OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NARROW RIDGE AXIS THEN BUILDS ATOP
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH A
FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS IDEAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED AND I TRENDED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
OFFERING MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -15F RANGE. CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY WILL EXIST HOWEVER AND I IMAGINE OUR TYPICAL COLDER
LOCALES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NC/NE VT MAY APPROACH -20F BY
MORNING. MILDEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AROUND ZERO GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS EAST DURING THURSDAY AND IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ADVANCING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING A MEAN SLV TRACK ALONG THE INTL
BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ENERGY SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARD
EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE TAPERING BACK.

HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOW TOTALS...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH/NRN MTS WHERE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE TYPES
OF CLIPPER-LOW TRACKS GENERALLY FAVOR THE FAR NRN SLV INTO THE
MONTREAL AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS HOWEVER. IN THIS AREA STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AS MEAN NORTHEASTERLY PBL FLOW
IS INTERSECTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL...BUT EARLY MODEL OUTPUT USING MEAN 15:1
SNOW RATIOS (16-17:1 MTS) WOULD SUGGEST AS MUCH SHOWING A GENERAL
3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHER TOTALS (FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OR SO) IN A SW-NE STRIPE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER FROM
MASSENA THROUGH MONTREAL TOWARD SHERBROOKE. SOME SHADOWING ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF LOW TRACK VERIFIES.
INDEED...CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET OF 45 KTS IN THE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BRIDGED ALOFT
BY A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...CLASSIC SHADOWING
SIGNATURES. AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT I`VE LEANED
TOWARD CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE OFFERED
WITH HIGH THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND HOLDING NEAR
STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS SYSTEM PASSES
DURING FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO
THE REGION. THUS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH READINGS FALLING STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BY 00Z ALL SITES
WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS ABATING TO NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VT. PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR BY 00Z
FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CIGS LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION. CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD. BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CLEAN UP SOME
LEFTOVER OVER POPS ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADJUST THE SKY
GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS ON VIS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS PRECIP HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA. THIS WL CONT THRU THE
AFTN HOURS AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA. TEMPS WL SLOWLY
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS MOST LOCATIONS WITH NORTH WINDS AT 5
TO 15 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ENHANCED
CHANNELING ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY INTO
THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY LOSING INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER
CONDITIONS...BEING GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS WINDS SLOWLY ABATE AND ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY
DAYS END AS HIGHS TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS PER BLENDED MODEL
OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NARROW RIDGE AXIS THEN BUILDS ATOP
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH A
FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS IDEAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED AND I TRENDED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
OFFERING MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -15F RANGE. CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY WILL EXIST HOWEVER AND I IMAGINE OUR TYPICAL COLDER
LOCALES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NC/NE VT MAY APPROACH -20F BY
MORNING. MILDEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AROUND ZERO GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS EAST DURING THURSDAY AND IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ADVANCING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING A MEAN SLV TRACK ALONG THE INTL
BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ENERGY SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARD
EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE TAPERING BACK.

HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOW TOTALS...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH/NRN MTS WHERE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE TYPES
OF CLIPPER-LOW TRACKS GENERALLY FAVOR THE FAR NRN SLV INTO THE
MONTREAL AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS HOWEVER. IN THIS AREA STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AS MEAN NORTHEASTERLY PBL FLOW
IS INTERSECTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL...BUT EARLY MODEL OUTPUT USING MEAN 15:1
SNOW RATIOS (16-17:1 MTS) WOULD SUGGEST AS MUCH SHOWING A GENERAL
3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHER TOTALS (FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OR SO) IN A SW-NE STRIPE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER FROM
MASSENA THROUGH MONTREAL TOWARD SHERBROOKE. SOME SHADOWING ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF LOW TRACK VERIFIES.
INDEED...CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET OF 45 KTS IN THE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BRIDGED ALOFT
BY A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...CLASSIC SHADOWING
SIGNATURES. AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT I`VE LEANED
TOWARD CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE OFFERED
WITH HIGH THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND HOLDING NEAR
STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS SYSTEM PASSES
DURING FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO
THE REGION. THUS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH READINGS FALLING STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BY 00Z ALL SITES
WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS ABATING TO NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VT. PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR BY 00Z
FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CIGS LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION. CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD. BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CLEAN UP SOME
LEFTOVER OVER POPS ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADJUST THE SKY
GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS ON VIS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS PRECIP HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA. THIS WL CONT THRU THE
AFTN HOURS AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA. TEMPS WL SLOWLY
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS MOST LOCATIONS WITH NORTH WINDS AT 5
TO 15 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ENHANCED
CHANNELING ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY INTO
THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY LOSING INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER
CONDITIONS...BEING GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS WINDS SLOWLY ABATE AND ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY
DAYS END AS HIGHS TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS PER BLENDED MODEL
OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NARROW RIDGE AXIS THEN BUILDS ATOP
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH A
FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS IDEAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED AND I TRENDED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
OFFERING MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -15F RANGE. CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY WILL EXIST HOWEVER AND I IMAGINE OUR TYPICAL COLDER
LOCALES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NC/NE VT MAY APPROACH -20F BY
MORNING. MILDEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AROUND ZERO GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS EAST DURING THURSDAY AND IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ADVANCING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING A MEAN SLV TRACK ALONG THE INTL
BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ENERGY SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARD
EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE TAPERING BACK.

HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOW TOTALS...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH/NRN MTS WHERE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE TYPES
OF CLIPPER-LOW TRACKS GENERALLY FAVOR THE FAR NRN SLV INTO THE
MONTREAL AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS HOWEVER. IN THIS AREA STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AS MEAN NORTHEASTERLY PBL FLOW
IS INTERSECTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL...BUT EARLY MODEL OUTPUT USING MEAN 15:1
SNOW RATIOS (16-17:1 MTS) WOULD SUGGEST AS MUCH SHOWING A GENERAL
3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHER TOTALS (FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OR SO) IN A SW-NE STRIPE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER FROM
MASSENA THROUGH MONTREAL TOWARD SHERBROOKE. SOME SHADOWING ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF LOW TRACK VERIFIES.
INDEED...CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET OF 45 KTS IN THE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BRIDGED ALOFT
BY A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...CLASSIC SHADOWING
SIGNATURES. AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT I`VE LEANED
TOWARD CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE OFFERED
WITH HIGH THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND HOLDING NEAR
STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS SYSTEM PASSES
DURING FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO
THE REGION. THUS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH READINGS FALLING STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BY 00Z ALL SITES
WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS ABATING TO NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VT. PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR BY 00Z
FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CIGS LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION. CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD. BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CLEAN UP SOME
LEFTOVER OVER POPS ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADJUST THE SKY
GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS ON VIS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS PRECIP HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA. THIS WL CONT THRU THE
AFTN HOURS AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA. TEMPS WL SLOWLY
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS MOST LOCATIONS WITH NORTH WINDS AT 5
TO 15 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ENHANCED
CHANNELING ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY INTO
THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY LOSING INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER
CONDITIONS...BEING GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS WINDS SLOWLY ABATE AND ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY
DAYS END AS HIGHS TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS PER BLENDED MODEL
OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NARROW RIDGE AXIS THEN BUILDS ATOP
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH A
FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS IDEAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED AND I TRENDED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
OFFERING MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -15F RANGE. CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY WILL EXIST HOWEVER AND I IMAGINE OUR TYPICAL COLDER
LOCALES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NC/NE VT MAY APPROACH -20F BY
MORNING. MILDEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AROUND ZERO GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS EAST DURING THURSDAY AND IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ADVANCING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING A MEAN SLV TRACK ALONG THE INTL
BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ENERGY SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARD
EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE TAPERING BACK.

HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOW TOTALS...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH/NRN MTS WHERE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE TYPES
OF CLIPPER-LOW TRACKS GENERALLY FAVOR THE FAR NRN SLV INTO THE
MONTREAL AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS HOWEVER. IN THIS AREA STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AS MEAN NORTHEASTERLY PBL FLOW
IS INTERSECTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL...BUT EARLY MODEL OUTPUT USING MEAN 15:1
SNOW RATIOS (16-17:1 MTS) WOULD SUGGEST AS MUCH SHOWING A GENERAL
3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHER TOTALS (FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OR SO) IN A SW-NE STRIPE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER FROM
MASSENA THROUGH MONTREAL TOWARD SHERBROOKE. SOME SHADOWING ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF LOW TRACK VERIFIES.
INDEED...CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET OF 45 KTS IN THE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BRIDGED ALOFT
BY A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...CLASSIC SHADOWING
SIGNATURES. AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT I`VE LEANED
TOWARD CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE OFFERED
WITH HIGH THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND HOLDING NEAR
STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS SYSTEM PASSES
DURING FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO
THE REGION. THUS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH READINGS FALLING STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS CREATING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY AFFECTING KBTV
BRIEFLY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 14Z/15Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH SCT 030-060. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ON NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT KSLK/KMSS
WHICH WILL SEE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED AT
KBTV AND KRUT AT 15-25KTS. KPBG/KSLK AND KMPV MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
GUSTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION. CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD. BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CLEAN UP SOME
LEFTOVER OVER POPS ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADJUST THE SKY
GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS ON VIS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS PRECIP HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA. THIS WL CONT THRU THE
AFTN HOURS AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA. TEMPS WL SLOWLY
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS MOST LOCATIONS WITH NORTH WINDS AT 5
TO 15 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ENHANCED
CHANNELING ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY INTO
THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY LOSING INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER
CONDITIONS...BEING GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS WINDS SLOWLY ABATE AND ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY
DAYS END AS HIGHS TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS PER BLENDED MODEL
OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NARROW RIDGE AXIS THEN BUILDS ATOP
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH A
FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS IDEAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED AND I TRENDED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
OFFERING MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -15F RANGE. CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY WILL EXIST HOWEVER AND I IMAGINE OUR TYPICAL COLDER
LOCALES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NC/NE VT MAY APPROACH -20F BY
MORNING. MILDEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AROUND ZERO GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS EAST DURING THURSDAY AND IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ADVANCING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING A MEAN SLV TRACK ALONG THE INTL
BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ENERGY SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARD
EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE TAPERING BACK.

HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOW TOTALS...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH/NRN MTS WHERE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE TYPES
OF CLIPPER-LOW TRACKS GENERALLY FAVOR THE FAR NRN SLV INTO THE
MONTREAL AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS HOWEVER. IN THIS AREA STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AS MEAN NORTHEASTERLY PBL FLOW
IS INTERSECTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL...BUT EARLY MODEL OUTPUT USING MEAN 15:1
SNOW RATIOS (16-17:1 MTS) WOULD SUGGEST AS MUCH SHOWING A GENERAL
3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHER TOTALS (FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OR SO) IN A SW-NE STRIPE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER FROM
MASSENA THROUGH MONTREAL TOWARD SHERBROOKE. SOME SHADOWING ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF LOW TRACK VERIFIES.
INDEED...CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET OF 45 KTS IN THE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BRIDGED ALOFT
BY A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...CLASSIC SHADOWING
SIGNATURES. AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT I`VE LEANED
TOWARD CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE OFFERED
WITH HIGH THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND HOLDING NEAR
STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS SYSTEM PASSES
DURING FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO
THE REGION. THUS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH READINGS FALLING STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS CREATING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY AFFECTING KBTV
BRIEFLY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 14Z/15Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH SCT 030-060. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ON NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT KSLK/KMSS
WHICH WILL SEE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED AT
KBTV AND KRUT AT 15-25KTS. KPBG/KSLK AND KMPV MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
GUSTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION. CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD. BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 633 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE VT SIDE OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS CONVERGENT FLOW IS ACTING ON REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME CONTINUED VERY LIGHT SNOWS/FLURRIES. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AND ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY LATE
MORNING IF NOT EARLIER. ALSO ADJUSTED T/TD DATASETS TO BLEND INTO
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...ESSENTIALLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS.
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY INTO
THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY LOSING INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER
CONDITIONS...BEING GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS WINDS SLOWLY ABATE AND ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY
DAYS END AS HIGHS TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS PER BLENDED MODEL
OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NARROW RIDGE AXIS THEN BUILDS ATOP
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH A
FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS IDEAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED AND I TRENDED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
OFFERING MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -15F RANGE. CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY WILL EXIST HOWEVER AND I IMAGINE OUR TYPICAL COLDER
LOCALES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NC/NE VT MAY APPROACH -20F BY
MORNING. MILDEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AROUND ZERO GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS EAST DURING THURSDAY AND IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ADVANCING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING A MEAN SLV TRACK ALONG THE INTL
BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ENERGY SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARD
EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE TAPERING BACK.

HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOW TOTALS...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH/NRN MTS WHERE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE TYPES
OF CLIPPER-LOW TRACKS GENERALLY FAVOR THE FAR NRN SLV INTO THE
MONTREAL AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS HOWEVER. IN THIS AREA STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AS MEAN NORTHEASTERLY PBL FLOW
IS INTERSECTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL...BUT EARLY MODEL OUTPUT USING MEAN 15:1
SNOW RATIOS (16-17:1 MTS) WOULD SUGGEST AS MUCH SHOWING A GENERAL
3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHER TOTALS (FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OR SO) IN A SW-NE STRIPE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER FROM
MASSENA THROUGH MONTREAL TOWARD SHERBROOKE. SOME SHADOWING ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF LOW TRACK VERIFIES.
INDEED...CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET OF 45 KTS IN THE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BRIDGED ALOFT
BY A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...CLASSIC SHADOWING
SIGNATURES. AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT I`VE LEANED
TOWARD CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE OFFERED
WITH HIGH THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND HOLDING NEAR
STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS SYSTEM PASSES
DURING FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO
THE REGION. THUS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH READINGS FALLING STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS CREATING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY AFFECTING KBTV
BRIEFLY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 14Z/15Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH SCT 030-060. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ON NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT KSLK/KMSS
WHICH WILL SEE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED AT
KBTV AND KRUT AT 15-25KTS. KPBG/KSLK AND KMPV MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
GUSTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION. CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD. BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY
LOSING INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER CONDITIONS...BEING GRADUALLY
REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS
WINDS SLOWLY ABATE AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL COME
TO AN END BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY DAYS END AS HIGHS TOP OUT GENERALLY IN
THE TEENS PER BLENDED MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NARROW RIDGE AXIS THEN BUILDS ATOP
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH A
FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS IDEAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED AND I TRENDED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
OFFERING MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -15F RANGE. CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY WILL EXIST HOWEVER AND I IMAGINE OUR TYPICAL COLDER
LOCALES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NC/NE VT MAY APPROACH -20F BY
MORNING. MILDEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AROUND ZERO GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS EAST DURING THURSDAY AND IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ADVANCING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING A MEAN SLV TRACK ALONG THE INTL
BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ENERGY SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARD
EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE TAPERING BACK.

HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOW TOTALS...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH/NRN MTS WHERE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE TYPES
OF CLIPPER-LOW TRACKS GENERALLY FAVOR THE FAR NRN SLV INTO THE
MONTREAL AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS HOWEVER. IN THIS AREA STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AS MEAN NORTHEASTERLY PBL FLOW
IS INTERSECTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL...BUT EARLY MODEL OUTPUT USING MEAN 15:1
SNOW RATIOS (16-17:1 MTS) WOULD SUGGEST AS MUCH SHOWING A GENERAL
3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHER TOTALS (FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OR SO) IN A SW-NE STRIPE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER FROM
MASSENA THROUGH MONTREAL TOWARD SHERBROOKE. SOME SHADOWING ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF LOW TRACK VERIFIES.
INDEED...CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET OF 45 KTS IN THE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BRIDGED ALOFT
BY A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...CLASSIC SHADOWING
SIGNATURES. AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT I`VE LEANED
TOWARD CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE OFFERED
WITH HIGH THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND HOLDING NEAR
STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS SYSTEM PASSES
DURING FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO
THE REGION. THUS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH READINGS FALLING STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS CREATING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY AFFECTING KBTV
BRIEFLY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 14Z/15Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH SCT 030-060. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ON NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT KSLK/KMSS
WHICH WILL SEE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED AT
KBTV AND KRUT AT 15-25KTS. KPBG/KSLK AND KMPV MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
GUSTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION. CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD. BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY
LOSING INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER CONDITIONS...BEING GRADUALLY
REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS
WINDS SLOWLY ABATE AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL COME
TO AN END BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY DAYS END AS HIGHS TOP OUT GENERALLY IN
THE TEENS PER BLENDED MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NARROW RIDGE AXIS THEN BUILDS ATOP
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH A
FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS IDEAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED AND I TRENDED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
OFFERING MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -15F RANGE. CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY WILL EXIST HOWEVER AND I IMAGINE OUR TYPICAL COLDER
LOCALES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NC/NE VT MAY APPROACH -20F BY
MORNING. MILDEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AROUND ZERO GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS EAST DURING THURSDAY AND IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ADVANCING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING A MEAN SLV TRACK ALONG THE INTL
BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ENERGY SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARD
EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE TAPERING BACK.

HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOW TOTALS...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH/NRN MTS WHERE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE TYPES
OF CLIPPER-LOW TRACKS GENERALLY FAVOR THE FAR NRN SLV INTO THE
MONTREAL AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS HOWEVER. IN THIS AREA STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AS MEAN NORTHEASTERLY PBL FLOW
IS INTERSECTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL...BUT EARLY MODEL OUTPUT USING MEAN 15:1
SNOW RATIOS (16-17:1 MTS) WOULD SUGGEST AS MUCH SHOWING A GENERAL
3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHER TOTALS (FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OR SO) IN A SW-NE STRIPE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER FROM
MASSENA THROUGH MONTREAL TOWARD SHERBROOKE. SOME SHADOWING ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF LOW TRACK VERIFIES.
INDEED...CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET OF 45 KTS IN THE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BRIDGED ALOFT
BY A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...CLASSIC SHADOWING
SIGNATURES. AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT I`VE LEANED
TOWARD CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE OFFERED
WITH HIGH THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND HOLDING NEAR
STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS SYSTEM PASSES
DURING FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO
THE REGION. THUS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH READINGS FALLING STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS CREATING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY AFFECTING KBTV
BRIEFLY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 14Z/15Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH SCT 030-060. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ON NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT KSLK/KMSS
WHICH WILL SEE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED AT
KBTV AND KRUT AT 15-25KTS. KPBG/KSLK AND KMPV MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
GUSTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280820
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION. CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD. BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY
LOSING INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER CONDITIONS...BEING GRADUALLY
REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS
WINDS SLOWLY ABATE AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL COME
TO AN END BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY DAYS END AS HIGHS TOP OUT GENERALLY IN
THE TEENS PER BLENDED MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NARROW RIDGE AXIS THEN BUILDS ATOP
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH A
FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS IDEAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED AND I TRENDED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
OFFERING MIMIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -15F RANGE. CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY WILL EXIST HOWEVER AND I IMAGINE OUR TYPICAL COLDER
LOCALES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NC/NE VT MAY APPROACH -20F BY
MORNING. MILDEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AROUND ZERO GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS EAST DURING THURSDAY AND IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ADVANCING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING A MEAN SLV TRACK ALONG THE INTL
BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ENERGY SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARD
EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE TAPERING BACK.

HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOW TOTALS...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH/NRN MTS WHERE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE TYPES
OF CLIPPER-LOW TRACKS GENERALLY FAVOR THE FAR NRN SLV INTO THE
MONTREAL AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS HOWEVER. IN THIS AREA STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AS MEAN NORTHEASTERLY PBL FLOW
IS INTERSECTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL...BUT EARLY MODEL OUTPUT USING MEAN 15:1
SNOW RATIOS (16-17:1 MTS) WOULD SUGGEST AS MUCH SHOWING A GENERAL
3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHER TOTALS (FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OR SO) IN A SW-NE STRIPE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER FROM
MASSENA THROUGH MONTREAL TOWARD SHERBROOKE. SOME SHADOWING ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF LOW TRACK VERIFIES.
INDEED...CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET OF 45 KTS IN THE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BRIDGED ALOFT
BY A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...CLASSIC SHADOWING
SIGNATURES. AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT I`VE LEANED
TOWARD CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE OFFERED
WITH HIGH THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND HOLDING NEAR
STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS SYSTEM PASSES
DURING FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO
THE REGION. THUS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH READINGS FALLING STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH BOUTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
AT KPBG AND KMPV IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPBG AND KMPV THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 09Z
WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LOW STRATUS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH AFTERWARD WITH SOME LINGER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KBTV, KPBG AND
KRUT THROUGH 09Z THEN GRADUALLY LESSENING. COME DAYLIGHT HOURS,
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV,
NORTHEAST AT KPBG AT 5-10 KNOTS AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS
AT KMSS/KSLK. WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EST TUESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER IN MOST
AREAS...WE HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VERMONT. ALSO...WITH DEEP LOW (988MB) STILL
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW WITH N-NNW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THUS...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR ERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY ACTIVITY. WITH MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING OVERCAST...WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL VALUES 10 TO 15 BELOW
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH BOUTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
AT KPBG AND KMPV IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPBG AND KMPV THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 09Z
WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LOW STRATUS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH AFTERWARD WITH SOME LINGER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KBTV, KPBG AND
KRUT THROUGH 09Z THEN GRADUALLY LESSENING. COME DAYLIGHT HOURS,
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV,
NORTHEAST AT KPBG AT 5-10 KNOTS AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS
AT KMSS/KSLK. WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 280802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EST TUESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER IN MOST
AREAS...WE HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VERMONT. ALSO...WITH DEEP LOW (988MB) STILL
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW WITH N-NNW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THUS...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR ERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY ACTIVITY. WITH MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING OVERCAST...WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL VALUES 10 TO 15 BELOW
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH BOUTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
AT KPBG AND KMPV IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPBG AND KMPV THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 09Z
WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LOW STRATUS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH AFTERWARD WITH SOME LINGER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KBTV, KPBG AND
KRUT THROUGH 09Z THEN GRADUALLY LESSENING. COME DAYLIGHT HOURS,
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV,
NORTHEAST AT KPBG AT 5-10 KNOTS AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS
AT KMSS/KSLK. WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EST TUESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER IN MOST
AREAS...WE HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VERMONT. ALSO...WITH DEEP LOW (988MB) STILL
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW WITH N-NNW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THUS...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR ERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY ACTIVITY. WITH MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING OVERCAST...WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL VALUES 10 TO 15 BELOW
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH BOUTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
AT KPBG AND KMPV IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPBG AND KMPV THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 09Z
WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LOW STRATUS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH AFTERWARD WITH SOME LINGER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KBTV, KPBG AND
KRUT THROUGH 09Z THEN GRADUALLY LESSENING. COME DAYLIGHT HOURS,
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV,
NORTHEAST AT KPBG AT 5-10 KNOTS AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS
AT KMSS/KSLK. WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EST TUESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER IN MOST
AREAS...WE HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VERMONT. ALSO...WITH DEEP LOW (988MB) STILL
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW WITH N-NNW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THUS...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR ERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY ACTIVITY. WITH MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING OVERCAST...WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL VALUES 10 TO 15 BELOW
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH BOUTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
AT KPBG AND KMPV IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPBG AND KMPV THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 09Z
WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LOW STRATUS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH AFTERWARD WITH SOME LINGER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KBTV, KPBG AND
KRUT THROUGH 09Z THEN GRADUALLY LESSENING. COME DAYLIGHT HOURS,
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV,
NORTHEAST AT KPBG AT 5-10 KNOTS AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS
AT KMSS/KSLK. WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 280532
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1232 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EST TUESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER IN MOST
AREAS...WE HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VERMONT. ALSO...WITH DEEP LOW (988MB) STILL
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW WITH N-NNW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THUS...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR ERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY ACTIVITY. WITH MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING OVERCAST...WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL VALUES 10 TO 15 BELOW
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS QUITE LIKELY FOR
THE PERIOD, WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW AND SEVERAL DAYS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE ONGOING WEATHER, AND
FOCUS NEEDED ON THAT, I RELIED RATHER HEAVILY ON A "DOWN THE
MIDDLE" MODEL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW MANUAL MODIFICATIONS. FROM WHAT I SAW, THE 12Z SUITE OF GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN THE BALLPARK ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.

DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: CLIPPER WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING DURING THE DAY, AND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF HERE IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE
"WARMER" ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS -- COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PAINTED IN SOME
20-30MPH GUSTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER
AIR AS THE DAY GOES ON. DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
WITH HIGHS FIRST THING. THE MID 20S "WARMTH" AT 8AM WILL END UP
IN THE 5-15F RANGE BY EVENING TIME. COULD HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
ISSUES TO TRACK COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE PRECIPITATION
SIDE OF THINGS, SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE DAY WILL DIMINISH
AND BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. IN THE END,
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5" "ADVISORY" LEVEL EVENT (LOCALLY A BIT MORE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SUB- ZERO FOR EVERYBODY!

SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD BE SUNNY, BUT ALWAYS
BEWARE OF SUNNY DAYS IN MID-WINTER. THAT MEANS COLD TOO. 925MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -20C. HIGHS 0 TO 8F WHERE WE LIVE. BRRR.
WARM WEATHER FANS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUNNY SKIES AND PRETEND
TO FEEL THE WARMTH. SATURDAY NIGHT - ANOTHER QUIET AND COLD NIGHT.
SUB-ZERO FOR US ALL AGAIN.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: FAST MOVING TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE
DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK
SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF HERE. GFS SUGGEST JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO THE 50-60% RANGE
FOR SUNDAY NITE/MONDAY. CERTAINLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL
SNOW EVENT WITH LIKELY A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK ENDS UP GOING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED, EARLIER, JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS FOR
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE THE BLENDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM. GFS IS BRUTALLY COLD. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO -35C! THE RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE COME TUESDAY MORNING IS
-25 TO -35F! (NOTE THAT MOS TURNS THAT INTO A -3F FOR BTV), AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE -5 TO -15F. THE ECMWF IS "MUCH"
WARMER -- 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C WITH IT`S RAW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT -15F IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS -5 TO +5F. AT
THIS POINT, HAVE MADE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF.

I DID WANT TO MAKE THE 7TH DAY OF THE FORECAST TO SHOW A +1C FOR A
HIGH TEMPERATURE, JUST TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO WARM WEATHER FANS
AFTER DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING (< 0C) HIGHS. BUT ALAS, IT WASN`T
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH BOUTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
AT KPBG AND KMPV IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPBG AND KMPV THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 09Z
WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LOW STRATUS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH AFTERWARD WITH SOME LINGER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KBTV, KPBG AND
KRUT THROUGH 09Z THEN GRADUALLY LESSENING. COME DAYLIGHT HOURS,
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV,
NORTHEAST AT KPBG AT 5-10 KNOTS AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS
AT KMSS/KSLK. WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280316
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EST TUESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER IN MOST
AREAS...WE HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VERMONT. ALSO...WITH DEEP LOW (988MB) STILL
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW WITH N-NNW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THUS...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR ERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY ACTIVITY. WITH MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING OVERCAST...WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL VALUES 10 TO 15 BELOW
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS QUITE LIKELY FOR
THE PERIOD, WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW AND SEVERAL DAYS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE ONGOING WEATHER, AND
FOCUS NEEDED ON THAT, I RELIED RATHER HEAVILY ON A "DOWN THE
MIDDLE" MODEL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW MANUAL MODIFICATIONS. FROM WHAT I SAW, THE 12Z SUITE OF GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN THE BALLPARK ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.

DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: CLIPPER WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING DURING THE DAY, AND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF HERE IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE
"WARMER" ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS -- COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PAINTED IN SOME
20-30MPH GUSTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER
AIR AS THE DAY GOES ON. DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
WITH HIGHS FIRST THING. THE MID 20S "WARMTH" AT 8AM WILL END UP
IN THE 5-15F RANGE BY EVENING TIME. COULD HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
ISSUES TO TRACK COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE PRECIPITATION
SIDE OF THINGS, SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE DAY WILL DIMINISH
AND BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. IN THE END,
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5" "ADVISORY" LEVEL EVENT (LOCALLY A BIT MORE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SUB- ZERO FOR EVERYBODY!

SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD BE SUNNY, BUT ALWAYS
BEWARE OF SUNNY DAYS IN MID-WINTER. THAT MEANS COLD TOO. 925MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -20C. HIGHS 0 TO 8F WHERE WE LIVE. BRRR.
WARM WEATHER FANS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUNNY SKIES AND PRETEND
TO FEEL THE WARMTH. SATURDAY NIGHT - ANOTHER QUIET AND COLD NIGHT.
SUB-ZERO FOR US ALL AGAIN.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: FAST MOVING TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE
DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK
SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF HERE. GFS SUGGEST JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO THE 50-60% RANGE
FOR SUNDAY NITE/MONDAY. CERTAINLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL
SNOW EVENT WITH LIKELY A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK ENDS UP GOING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED, EARLIER, JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS FOR
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE THE BLENDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM. GFS IS BRUTALLY COLD. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO -35C! THE RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE COME TUESDAY MORNING IS
-25 TO -35F! (NOTE THAT MOS TURNS THAT INTO A -3F FOR BTV), AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE -5 TO -15F. THE ECMWF IS "MUCH"
WARMER -- 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C WITH IT`S RAW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT -15F IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS -5 TO +5F. AT
THIS POINT, HAVE MADE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF.

I DID WANT TO MAKE THE 7TH DAY OF THE FORECAST TO SHOW A +1C FOR A
HIGH TEMPERATURE, JUST TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO WARM WEATHER FANS
AFTER DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING (< 0C) HIGHS. BUT ALAS, IT WASN`T
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL EXIST
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AREA-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS
EVENING AS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THESE WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT AT MPV/BTV/PBG WHERE PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY
THROUGH 04Z-08Z. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT RUT/SLK BUT WILL ONLY
SHOW MVFR FOR NOW. MSS WILL REMAIN DRY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW
STRATUS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE IMPROVING AND SCATTERING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY LESSENING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
BTV/RUT/MPV...NORTHEAST AT PBG FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS...AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280316
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EST TUESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER IN MOST
AREAS...WE HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VERMONT. ALSO...WITH DEEP LOW (988MB) STILL
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW WITH N-NNW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THUS...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR ERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY ACTIVITY. WITH MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING OVERCAST...WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL VALUES 10 TO 15 BELOW
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS QUITE LIKELY FOR
THE PERIOD, WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW AND SEVERAL DAYS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE ONGOING WEATHER, AND
FOCUS NEEDED ON THAT, I RELIED RATHER HEAVILY ON A "DOWN THE
MIDDLE" MODEL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW MANUAL MODIFICATIONS. FROM WHAT I SAW, THE 12Z SUITE OF GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN THE BALLPARK ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.

DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: CLIPPER WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING DURING THE DAY, AND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF HERE IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE
"WARMER" ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS -- COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PAINTED IN SOME
20-30MPH GUSTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER
AIR AS THE DAY GOES ON. DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
WITH HIGHS FIRST THING. THE MID 20S "WARMTH" AT 8AM WILL END UP
IN THE 5-15F RANGE BY EVENING TIME. COULD HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
ISSUES TO TRACK COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE PRECIPITATION
SIDE OF THINGS, SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE DAY WILL DIMINISH
AND BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. IN THE END,
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5" "ADVISORY" LEVEL EVENT (LOCALLY A BIT MORE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SUB- ZERO FOR EVERYBODY!

SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD BE SUNNY, BUT ALWAYS
BEWARE OF SUNNY DAYS IN MID-WINTER. THAT MEANS COLD TOO. 925MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -20C. HIGHS 0 TO 8F WHERE WE LIVE. BRRR.
WARM WEATHER FANS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUNNY SKIES AND PRETEND
TO FEEL THE WARMTH. SATURDAY NIGHT - ANOTHER QUIET AND COLD NIGHT.
SUB-ZERO FOR US ALL AGAIN.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: FAST MOVING TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE
DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK
SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF HERE. GFS SUGGEST JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO THE 50-60% RANGE
FOR SUNDAY NITE/MONDAY. CERTAINLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL
SNOW EVENT WITH LIKELY A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK ENDS UP GOING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED, EARLIER, JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS FOR
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE THE BLENDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM. GFS IS BRUTALLY COLD. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO -35C! THE RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE COME TUESDAY MORNING IS
-25 TO -35F! (NOTE THAT MOS TURNS THAT INTO A -3F FOR BTV), AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE -5 TO -15F. THE ECMWF IS "MUCH"
WARMER -- 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C WITH IT`S RAW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT -15F IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS -5 TO +5F. AT
THIS POINT, HAVE MADE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF.

I DID WANT TO MAKE THE 7TH DAY OF THE FORECAST TO SHOW A +1C FOR A
HIGH TEMPERATURE, JUST TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO WARM WEATHER FANS
AFTER DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING (< 0C) HIGHS. BUT ALAS, IT WASN`T
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL EXIST
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AREA-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS
EVENING AS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THESE WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT AT MPV/BTV/PBG WHERE PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY
THROUGH 04Z-08Z. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT RUT/SLK BUT WILL ONLY
SHOW MVFR FOR NOW. MSS WILL REMAIN DRY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW
STRATUS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE IMPROVING AND SCATTERING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY LESSENING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
BTV/RUT/MPV...NORTHEAST AT PBG FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS...AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280316
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EST TUESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER IN MOST
AREAS...WE HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VERMONT. ALSO...WITH DEEP LOW (988MB) STILL
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW WITH N-NNW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THUS...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR ERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY ACTIVITY. WITH MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING OVERCAST...WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL VALUES 10 TO 15 BELOW
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS QUITE LIKELY FOR
THE PERIOD, WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW AND SEVERAL DAYS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE ONGOING WEATHER, AND
FOCUS NEEDED ON THAT, I RELIED RATHER HEAVILY ON A "DOWN THE
MIDDLE" MODEL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW MANUAL MODIFICATIONS. FROM WHAT I SAW, THE 12Z SUITE OF GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN THE BALLPARK ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.

DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: CLIPPER WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING DURING THE DAY, AND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF HERE IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE
"WARMER" ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS -- COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PAINTED IN SOME
20-30MPH GUSTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER
AIR AS THE DAY GOES ON. DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
WITH HIGHS FIRST THING. THE MID 20S "WARMTH" AT 8AM WILL END UP
IN THE 5-15F RANGE BY EVENING TIME. COULD HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
ISSUES TO TRACK COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE PRECIPITATION
SIDE OF THINGS, SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE DAY WILL DIMINISH
AND BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. IN THE END,
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5" "ADVISORY" LEVEL EVENT (LOCALLY A BIT MORE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SUB- ZERO FOR EVERYBODY!

SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD BE SUNNY, BUT ALWAYS
BEWARE OF SUNNY DAYS IN MID-WINTER. THAT MEANS COLD TOO. 925MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -20C. HIGHS 0 TO 8F WHERE WE LIVE. BRRR.
WARM WEATHER FANS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUNNY SKIES AND PRETEND
TO FEEL THE WARMTH. SATURDAY NIGHT - ANOTHER QUIET AND COLD NIGHT.
SUB-ZERO FOR US ALL AGAIN.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: FAST MOVING TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE
DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK
SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF HERE. GFS SUGGEST JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO THE 50-60% RANGE
FOR SUNDAY NITE/MONDAY. CERTAINLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL
SNOW EVENT WITH LIKELY A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK ENDS UP GOING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED, EARLIER, JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS FOR
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE THE BLENDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM. GFS IS BRUTALLY COLD. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO -35C! THE RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE COME TUESDAY MORNING IS
-25 TO -35F! (NOTE THAT MOS TURNS THAT INTO A -3F FOR BTV), AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE -5 TO -15F. THE ECMWF IS "MUCH"
WARMER -- 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C WITH IT`S RAW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT -15F IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS -5 TO +5F. AT
THIS POINT, HAVE MADE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF.

I DID WANT TO MAKE THE 7TH DAY OF THE FORECAST TO SHOW A +1C FOR A
HIGH TEMPERATURE, JUST TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO WARM WEATHER FANS
AFTER DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING (< 0C) HIGHS. BUT ALAS, IT WASN`T
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL EXIST
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AREA-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS
EVENING AS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THESE WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT AT MPV/BTV/PBG WHERE PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY
THROUGH 04Z-08Z. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT RUT/SLK BUT WILL ONLY
SHOW MVFR FOR NOW. MSS WILL REMAIN DRY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW
STRATUS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE IMPROVING AND SCATTERING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY LESSENING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
BTV/RUT/MPV...NORTHEAST AT PBG FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS...AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 280004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
704 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EST TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF THE DEEP SURFACE LOW (985MB)
WHICH IS DUE EAST OF CAPE COD AT 2330Z. EXPECTATION IS FOR
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 06Z FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. AFTER
06Z...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ACROSS OUR
REGION. CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURES...CURRENTLY QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS ERN CLINTON AND
ESSEX COUNTIES IN NY. THIS BAND MAY BRING SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW AT TIMES THIS EVENING TO THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL 1-2 INCHES IN SPOTS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT THRU 06Z. ALSO...WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GIVEN VERY
DRY/FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...PREVAILING SFC WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW YIELDING
LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW PACKED ROADS IN SPOTS. IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT - FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EWD - ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. TEMPS WL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BLW ZERO TO NEAR
10F MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING LATE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS SURFACE
LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS QUITE LIKELY FOR
THE PERIOD, WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW AND SEVERAL DAYS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE ONGOING WEATHER, AND
FOCUS NEEDED ON THAT, I RELIED RATHER HEAVILY ON A "DOWN THE
MIDDLE" MODEL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW MANUAL MODIFICATIONS. FROM WHAT I SAW, THE 12Z SUITE OF GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN THE BALLPARK ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.

DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: CLIPPER WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING DURING THE DAY, AND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF HERE IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE
"WARMER" ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS -- COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PAINTED IN SOME
20-30MPH GUSTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER
AIR AS THE DAY GOES ON. DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
WITH HIGHS FIRST THING. THE MID 20S "WARMTH" AT 8AM WILL END UP
IN THE 5-15F RANGE BY EVENING TIME. COULD HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
ISSUES TO TRACK COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE PRECIPITATION
SIDE OF THINGS, SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE DAY WILL DIMINISH
AND BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. IN THE END,
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5" "ADVISORY" LEVEL EVENT (LOCALLY A BIT MORE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SUB- ZERO FOR EVERYBODY!

SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD BE SUNNY, BUT ALWAYS
BEWARE OF SUNNY DAYS IN MID-WINTER. THAT MEANS COLD TOO. 925MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -20C. HIGHS 0 TO 8F WHERE WE LIVE. BRRR.
WARM WEATHER FANS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUNNY SKIES AND PRETEND
TO FEEL THE WARMTH. SATURDAY NIGHT - ANOTHER QUIET AND COLD NIGHT.
SUB-ZERO FOR US ALL AGAIN.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: FAST MOVING TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE
DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK
SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF HERE. GFS SUGGEST JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO THE 50-60% RANGE
FOR SUNDAY NITE/MONDAY. CERTAINLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL
SNOW EVENT WITH LIKELY A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK ENDS UP GOING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED, EARLIER, JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS FOR
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE THE BLENDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM. GFS IS BRUTALLY COLD. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO -35C! THE RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE COME TUESDAY MORNING IS
-25 TO -35F! (NOTE THAT MOS TURNS THAT INTO A -3F FOR BTV), AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE -5 TO -15F. THE ECMWF IS "MUCH"
WARMER -- 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C WITH IT`S RAW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT -15F IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS -5 TO +5F. AT
THIS POINT, HAVE MADE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF.

I DID WANT TO MAKE THE 7TH DAY OF THE FORECAST TO SHOW A +1C FOR A
HIGH TEMPERATURE, JUST TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO WARM WEATHER FANS
AFTER DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING (< 0C) HIGHS. BUT ALAS, IT WASN`T
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL EXIST
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AREA-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS
EVENING AS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THESE WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT AT MPV/BTV/PBG WHERE PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY
THROUGH 04Z-08Z. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT RUT/SLK BUT WILL ONLY
SHOW MVFR FOR NOW. MSS WILL REMAIN DRY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW
STRATUS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE IMPROVING AND SCATTERING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY LESSENING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
BTV/RUT/MPV...NORTHEAST AT PBG FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS...AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
704 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EST TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF THE DEEP SURFACE LOW (985MB)
WHICH IS DUE EAST OF CAPE COD AT 2330Z. EXPECTATION IS FOR
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 06Z FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. AFTER
06Z...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ACROSS OUR
REGION. CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURES...CURRENTLY QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS ERN CLINTON AND
ESSEX COUNTIES IN NY. THIS BAND MAY BRING SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW AT TIMES THIS EVENING TO THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL 1-2 INCHES IN SPOTS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT THRU 06Z. ALSO...WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GIVEN VERY
DRY/FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...PREVAILING SFC WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW YIELDING
LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW PACKED ROADS IN SPOTS. IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT - FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EWD - ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. TEMPS WL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BLW ZERO TO NEAR
10F MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING LATE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS SURFACE
LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS QUITE LIKELY FOR
THE PERIOD, WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW AND SEVERAL DAYS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE ONGOING WEATHER, AND
FOCUS NEEDED ON THAT, I RELIED RATHER HEAVILY ON A "DOWN THE
MIDDLE" MODEL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW MANUAL MODIFICATIONS. FROM WHAT I SAW, THE 12Z SUITE OF GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN THE BALLPARK ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.

DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: CLIPPER WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING DURING THE DAY, AND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF HERE IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE
"WARMER" ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS -- COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PAINTED IN SOME
20-30MPH GUSTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER
AIR AS THE DAY GOES ON. DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
WITH HIGHS FIRST THING. THE MID 20S "WARMTH" AT 8AM WILL END UP
IN THE 5-15F RANGE BY EVENING TIME. COULD HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
ISSUES TO TRACK COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE PRECIPITATION
SIDE OF THINGS, SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE DAY WILL DIMINISH
AND BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. IN THE END,
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5" "ADVISORY" LEVEL EVENT (LOCALLY A BIT MORE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SUB- ZERO FOR EVERYBODY!

SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD BE SUNNY, BUT ALWAYS
BEWARE OF SUNNY DAYS IN MID-WINTER. THAT MEANS COLD TOO. 925MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -20C. HIGHS 0 TO 8F WHERE WE LIVE. BRRR.
WARM WEATHER FANS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUNNY SKIES AND PRETEND
TO FEEL THE WARMTH. SATURDAY NIGHT - ANOTHER QUIET AND COLD NIGHT.
SUB-ZERO FOR US ALL AGAIN.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: FAST MOVING TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE
DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK
SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF HERE. GFS SUGGEST JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO THE 50-60% RANGE
FOR SUNDAY NITE/MONDAY. CERTAINLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL
SNOW EVENT WITH LIKELY A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK ENDS UP GOING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED, EARLIER, JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS FOR
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE THE BLENDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM. GFS IS BRUTALLY COLD. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO -35C! THE RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE COME TUESDAY MORNING IS
-25 TO -35F! (NOTE THAT MOS TURNS THAT INTO A -3F FOR BTV), AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE -5 TO -15F. THE ECMWF IS "MUCH"
WARMER -- 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C WITH IT`S RAW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT -15F IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS -5 TO +5F. AT
THIS POINT, HAVE MADE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF.

I DID WANT TO MAKE THE 7TH DAY OF THE FORECAST TO SHOW A +1C FOR A
HIGH TEMPERATURE, JUST TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO WARM WEATHER FANS
AFTER DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING (< 0C) HIGHS. BUT ALAS, IT WASN`T
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL EXIST
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AREA-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS
EVENING AS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THESE WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT AT MPV/BTV/PBG WHERE PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY
THROUGH 04Z-08Z. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT RUT/SLK BUT WILL ONLY
SHOW MVFR FOR NOW. MSS WILL REMAIN DRY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW
STRATUS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE IMPROVING AND SCATTERING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY LESSENING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
BTV/RUT/MPV...NORTHEAST AT PBG FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS...AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 272347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...AVE CANCELLED WINTER STORM WARNING AND
REPLACED WITH WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
ALSO...EXPANDED ADVISORY TO COVER PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES FOR THE COMBINATION SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
THE EVENING COMMUTE. EXPECTING A DIFFICULT EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS
MOST THE REGION. BTV PICKED UP 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN JUST SEVERAL
HRS UNDER THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTN. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER THIS
NARROW MESO BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND WESTERN SLOPES.

FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PARTS OF GREEN
MTNS. CRNT WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST
EAST OF CAPE COD THIS AFTN...WITH SEVERAL BAND OF MID/UPPER LVL
MOISTURE ROTATING BACK TOWARD OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR AND RAP SHOWS
THIS MID LVL MOISTURE AND ELONGATED 5H VORTICITY MAXIMUM WL BECOME
STATIONARY ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW LINGERING THRU THE EVENING HRS.
THIS SUPPORT ALOFT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLW WL
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW THRU 06Z...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...NAM FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS BLOCKED FLW WITH
VALUES <0.50...SUPPORTING ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF
THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WL TRY TO SHOW THIS DETAIL
IN THE GRIDS AND INCREASE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACRS THIS
REGION...THINKING BTWN 1 AND 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...AREAL COVERAGE OF MID LVL MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WL BE LIMITED.
THIS IS ALREADY SUPPORTED BY RADAR SHOWING LARGE HOLE OF NO PRECIP
ACRS MOST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND NEK OF VT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WL BE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...WITH
ONLY FLURRIES FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS.
ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WITH SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING...WHICH WL CAUSE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. GUSTY TO 30 MPH WL BE LIKELY THRU 03Z
TONIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BLW ZERO TO NEAR 10F MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS QUITE LIKELY FOR
THE PERIOD, WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW AND SEVERAL DAYS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE ONGOING WEATHER, AND
FOCUS NEEDED ON THAT, I RELIED RATHER HEAVILY ON A "DOWN THE
MIDDLE" MODEL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW MANUAL MODIFICATIONS. FROM WHAT I SAW, THE 12Z SUITE OF GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN THE BALLPARK ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.

DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: CLIPPER WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING DURING THE DAY, AND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF HERE IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE
"WARMER" ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS -- COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PAINTED IN SOME
20-30MPH GUSTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER
AIR AS THE DAY GOES ON. DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
WITH HIGHS FIRST THING. THE MID 20S "WARMTH" AT 8AM WILL END UP
IN THE 5-15F RANGE BY EVENING TIME. COULD HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
ISSUES TO TRACK COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE PRECIPITATION
SIDE OF THINGS, SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE DAY WILL DIMINISH
AND BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. IN THE END,
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5" "ADVISORY" LEVEL EVENT (LOCALLY A BIT MORE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SUB- ZERO FOR EVERYBODY!

SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD BE SUNNY, BUT ALWAYS
BEWARE OF SUNNY DAYS IN MID-WINTER. THAT MEANS COLD TOO. 925MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -20C. HIGHS 0 TO 8F WHERE WE LIVE. BRRR.
WARM WEATHER FANS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUNNY SKIES AND PRETEND
TO FEEL THE WARMTH. SATURDAY NIGHT - ANOTHER QUIET AND COLD NIGHT.
SUB-ZERO FOR US ALL AGAIN.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: FAST MOVING TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE
DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK
SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF HERE. GFS SUGGEST JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO THE 50-60% RANGE
FOR SUNDAY NITE/MONDAY. CERTAINLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL
SNOW EVENT WITH LIKELY A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK ENDS UP GOING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED, EARLIER, JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS FOR
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE THE BLENDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM. GFS IS BRUTALLY COLD. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO -35C! THE RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE COME TUESDAY MORNING IS
-25 TO -35F! (NOTE THAT MOS TURNS THAT INTO A -3F FOR BTV), AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE -5 TO -15F. THE ECMWF IS "MUCH"
WARMER -- 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C WITH IT`S RAW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT -15F IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS -5 TO +5F. AT
THIS POINT, HAVE MADE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF.

I DID WANT TO MAKE THE 7TH DAY OF THE FORECAST TO SHOW A +1C FOR A
HIGH TEMPERATURE, JUST TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO WARM WEATHER FANS
AFTER DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING (< 0C) HIGHS. BUT ALAS, IT WASN`T
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL EXIST
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AREA-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS
EVENING AS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THESE WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT AT MPV/BTV/PBG WHERE PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY
THROUGH 04Z-08Z. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT RUT/SLK BUT WILL ONLY
SHOW MVFR FOR NOW. MSS WILL REMAIN DRY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW
STRATUS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE IMPROVING AND SCATTERING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY LESSENING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
BTV/RUT/MPV...NORTHEAST AT PBG FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS...AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 272347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...AVE CANCELLED WINTER STORM WARNING AND
REPLACED WITH WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
ALSO...EXPANDED ADVISORY TO COVER PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES FOR THE COMBINATION SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
THE EVENING COMMUTE. EXPECTING A DIFFICULT EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS
MOST THE REGION. BTV PICKED UP 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN JUST SEVERAL
HRS UNDER THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTN. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER THIS
NARROW MESO BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND WESTERN SLOPES.

FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PARTS OF GREEN
MTNS. CRNT WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST
EAST OF CAPE COD THIS AFTN...WITH SEVERAL BAND OF MID/UPPER LVL
MOISTURE ROTATING BACK TOWARD OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR AND RAP SHOWS
THIS MID LVL MOISTURE AND ELONGATED 5H VORTICITY MAXIMUM WL BECOME
STATIONARY ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW LINGERING THRU THE EVENING HRS.
THIS SUPPORT ALOFT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLW WL
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW THRU 06Z...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...NAM FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS BLOCKED FLW WITH
VALUES <0.50...SUPPORTING ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF
THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WL TRY TO SHOW THIS DETAIL
IN THE GRIDS AND INCREASE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACRS THIS
REGION...THINKING BTWN 1 AND 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...AREAL COVERAGE OF MID LVL MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WL BE LIMITED.
THIS IS ALREADY SUPPORTED BY RADAR SHOWING LARGE HOLE OF NO PRECIP
ACRS MOST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND NEK OF VT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WL BE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...WITH
ONLY FLURRIES FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS.
ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WITH SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING...WHICH WL CAUSE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. GUSTY TO 30 MPH WL BE LIKELY THRU 03Z
TONIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BLW ZERO TO NEAR 10F MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS QUITE LIKELY FOR
THE PERIOD, WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW AND SEVERAL DAYS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE ONGOING WEATHER, AND
FOCUS NEEDED ON THAT, I RELIED RATHER HEAVILY ON A "DOWN THE
MIDDLE" MODEL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW MANUAL MODIFICATIONS. FROM WHAT I SAW, THE 12Z SUITE OF GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN THE BALLPARK ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.

DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: CLIPPER WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING DURING THE DAY, AND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF HERE IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE
"WARMER" ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS -- COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PAINTED IN SOME
20-30MPH GUSTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER
AIR AS THE DAY GOES ON. DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
WITH HIGHS FIRST THING. THE MID 20S "WARMTH" AT 8AM WILL END UP
IN THE 5-15F RANGE BY EVENING TIME. COULD HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
ISSUES TO TRACK COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE PRECIPITATION
SIDE OF THINGS, SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE DAY WILL DIMINISH
AND BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. IN THE END,
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5" "ADVISORY" LEVEL EVENT (LOCALLY A BIT MORE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SUB- ZERO FOR EVERYBODY!

SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD BE SUNNY, BUT ALWAYS
BEWARE OF SUNNY DAYS IN MID-WINTER. THAT MEANS COLD TOO. 925MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -20C. HIGHS 0 TO 8F WHERE WE LIVE. BRRR.
WARM WEATHER FANS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUNNY SKIES AND PRETEND
TO FEEL THE WARMTH. SATURDAY NIGHT - ANOTHER QUIET AND COLD NIGHT.
SUB-ZERO FOR US ALL AGAIN.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: FAST MOVING TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE
DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK
SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF HERE. GFS SUGGEST JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO THE 50-60% RANGE
FOR SUNDAY NITE/MONDAY. CERTAINLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL
SNOW EVENT WITH LIKELY A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK ENDS UP GOING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED, EARLIER, JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS FOR
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE THE BLENDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM. GFS IS BRUTALLY COLD. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO -35C! THE RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE COME TUESDAY MORNING IS
-25 TO -35F! (NOTE THAT MOS TURNS THAT INTO A -3F FOR BTV), AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE -5 TO -15F. THE ECMWF IS "MUCH"
WARMER -- 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C WITH IT`S RAW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT -15F IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS -5 TO +5F. AT
THIS POINT, HAVE MADE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF.

I DID WANT TO MAKE THE 7TH DAY OF THE FORECAST TO SHOW A +1C FOR A
HIGH TEMPERATURE, JUST TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO WARM WEATHER FANS
AFTER DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING (< 0C) HIGHS. BUT ALAS, IT WASN`T
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL EXIST
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AREA-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS
EVENING AS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THESE WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT AT MPV/BTV/PBG WHERE PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY
THROUGH 04Z-08Z. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT RUT/SLK BUT WILL ONLY
SHOW MVFR FOR NOW. MSS WILL REMAIN DRY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW
STRATUS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE IMPROVING AND SCATTERING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY LESSENING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
BTV/RUT/MPV...NORTHEAST AT PBG FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS...AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...AVE CANCELLED WINTER STORM WARNING AND
REPLACED WITH WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
ALSO...EXPANDED ADVISORY TO COVER PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES FOR THE COMBINATION SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
THE EVENING COMMUTE. EXPECTING A DIFFICULT EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS
MOST THE REGION. BTV PICKED UP 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN JUST SEVERAL
HRS UNDER THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTN. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER THIS
NARROW MESO BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND WESTERN SLOPES.

FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PARTS OF GREEN
MTNS. CRNT WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST
EAST OF CAPE COD THIS AFTN...WITH SEVERAL BAND OF MID/UPPER LVL
MOISTURE ROTATING BACK TOWARD OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR AND RAP SHOWS
THIS MID LVL MOISTURE AND ELONGATED 5H VORTICITY MAXIMUM WL BECOME
STATIONARY ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW LINGERING THRU THE EVENING HRS.
THIS SUPPORT ALOFT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLW WL
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW THRU 06Z...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...NAM FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS BLOCKED FLW WITH
VALUES <0.50...SUPPORTING ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF
THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WL TRY TO SHOW THIS DETAIL
IN THE GRIDS AND INCREASE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACRS THIS
REGION...THINKING BTWN 1 AND 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...AREAL COVERAGE OF MID LVL MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WL BE LIMITED.
THIS IS ALREADY SUPPORTED BY RADAR SHOWING LARGE HOLE OF NO PRECIP
ACRS MOST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND NEK OF VT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WL BE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...WITH
ONLY FLURRIES FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS.
ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WITH SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING...WHICH WL CAUSE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. GUSTY TO 30 MPH WL BE LIKELY THRU 03Z
TONIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BLW ZERO TO NEAR 10F MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS QUITE LIKELY FOR
THE PERIOD, WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW AND SEVERAL DAYS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE ONGOING WEATHER, AND
FOCUS NEEDED ON THAT, I RELIED RATHER HEAVILY ON A "DOWN THE
MIDDLE" MODEL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW MANUAL MODIFICATIONS. FROM WHAT I SAW, THE 12Z SUITE OF GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN THE BALLPARK ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.

DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: CLIPPER WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING DURING THE DAY, AND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF HERE IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE
"WARMER" ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS -- COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PAINTED IN SOME
20-30MPH GUSTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER
AIR AS THE DAY GOES ON. DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
WITH HIGHS FIRST THING. THE MID 20S "WARMTH" AT 8AM WILL END UP
IN THE 5-15F RANGE BY EVENING TIME. COULD HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
ISSUES TO TRACK COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE PRECIPITATION
SIDE OF THINGS, SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE DAY WILL DIMINISH
AND BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. IN THE END,
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5" "ADVISORY" LEVEL EVENT (LOCALLY A BIT MORE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SUB- ZERO FOR EVERYBODY!

SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD BE SUNNY, BUT ALWAYS
BEWARE OF SUNNY DAYS IN MID-WINTER. THAT MEANS COLD TOO. 925MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -20C. HIGHS 0 TO 8F WHERE WE LIVE. BRRR.
WARM WEATHER FANS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUNNY SKIES AND PRETEND
TO FEEL THE WARMTH. SATURDAY NIGHT - ANOTHER QUIET AND COLD NIGHT.
SUB-ZERO FOR US ALL AGAIN.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: FAST MOVING TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE
DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK
SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF HERE. GFS SUGGEST JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO THE 50-60% RANGE
FOR SUNDAY NITE/MONDAY. CERTAINLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL
SNOW EVENT WITH LIKELY A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK ENDS UP GOING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED, EARLIER, JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS FOR
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE THE BLENDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM. GFS IS BRUTALLY COLD. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO -35C! THE RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE COME TUESDAY MORNING IS
-25 TO -35F! (NOTE THAT MOS TURNS THAT INTO A -3F FOR BTV), AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE -5 TO -15F. THE ECMWF IS "MUCH"
WARMER -- 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C WITH IT`S RAW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT -15F IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS -5 TO +5F. AT
THIS POINT, HAVE MADE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF.

I DID WANT TO MAKE THE 7TH DAY OF THE FORECAST TO SHOW A +1C FOR A
HIGH TEMPERATURE, JUST TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO WARM WEATHER FANS
AFTER DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING (< 0C) HIGHS. BUT ALAS, IT WASN`T
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW THROUGH 03Z. JUST WANTED TO GET THAT
OUT THERE FIRST.

CURRENTLY, CONDITIONS RANGE FROM IFR/LIFR ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. BANDS OF SNOW ARE SLOWLY
PUSHING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS VERMONT. IN SPOTS, THE SNOW DOES
BRIEFLY RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 1/4SM, BUT IN
GENERAL IT`S MORE LIKE 3/4SM TO 1 1/2SM.

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE INITIAL BATCH OF SNOW IS DRYING UP AS IT
MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
IT MAKES IT TO SLK, THOUGH IT APPEARS MSS WILL STAY VFR. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING A "BREAK IN THE ACTION" DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VT/NH
BORDER. IT COULD BE THAT THIS IS A SIGN THAT THE SNOW WONT LAST
ALL THAT LONG (6 HOURS OR SO) IN ANY SPOT. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ALL THE WAY TO 12Z.

GAVE IT MY BEST SHOT. IN GENERAL GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE BULK
OF THE MODERATE SNOW & LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL LAST UP TO 20-23Z
OR SO, WITH DIMINSHING SNOW THROUGH 03Z (AND MVFR CONDITIONS).
AFTER THAT, VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE. MAY END UP NEEDING TO AMEND
FORECASTS IF THE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE FORECASTS NEED SOME
FIXING.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 20-25KTS SHOULD BE COMMON. PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30KT GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE TAFS, MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR AS
WELL.

FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD, LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...AVE CANCELLED WINTER STORM WARNING AND
REPLACED WITH WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
ALSO...EXPANDED ADVISORY TO COVER PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES FOR THE COMBINATION SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
THE EVENING COMMUTE. EXPECTING A DIFFICULT EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS
MOST THE REGION. BTV PICKED UP 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN JUST SEVERAL
HRS UNDER THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTN. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER THIS
NARROW MESO BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND WESTERN SLOPES.

FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PARTS OF GREEN
MTNS. CRNT WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST
EAST OF CAPE COD THIS AFTN...WITH SEVERAL BAND OF MID/UPPER LVL
MOISTURE ROTATING BACK TOWARD OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR AND RAP SHOWS
THIS MID LVL MOISTURE AND ELONGATED 5H VORTICITY MAXIMUM WL BECOME
STATIONARY ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW LINGERING THRU THE EVENING HRS.
THIS SUPPORT ALOFT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLW WL
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW THRU 06Z...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...NAM FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS BLOCKED FLW WITH
VALUES <0.50...SUPPORTING ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF
THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WL TRY TO SHOW THIS DETAIL
IN THE GRIDS AND INCREASE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACRS THIS
REGION...THINKING BTWN 1 AND 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...AREAL COVERAGE OF MID LVL MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WL BE LIMITED.
THIS IS ALREADY SUPPORTED BY RADAR SHOWING LARGE HOLE OF NO PRECIP
ACRS MOST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND NEK OF VT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WL BE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...WITH
ONLY FLURRIES FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS.
ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WITH SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING...WHICH WL CAUSE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. GUSTY TO 30 MPH WL BE LIKELY THRU 03Z
TONIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BLW ZERO TO NEAR 10F MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS QUITE LIKELY FOR
THE PERIOD, WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW AND SEVERAL DAYS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE ONGOING WEATHER, AND
FOCUS NEEDED ON THAT, I RELIED RATHER HEAVILY ON A "DOWN THE
MIDDLE" MODEL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW MANUAL MODIFICATIONS. FROM WHAT I SAW, THE 12Z SUITE OF GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN THE BALLPARK ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.

DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: CLIPPER WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING DURING THE DAY, AND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF HERE IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE
"WARMER" ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS -- COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PAINTED IN SOME
20-30MPH GUSTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER
AIR AS THE DAY GOES ON. DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
WITH HIGHS FIRST THING. THE MID 20S "WARMTH" AT 8AM WILL END UP
IN THE 5-15F RANGE BY EVENING TIME. COULD HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
ISSUES TO TRACK COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE PRECIPITATION
SIDE OF THINGS, SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE DAY WILL DIMINISH
AND BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. IN THE END,
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5" "ADVISORY" LEVEL EVENT (LOCALLY A BIT MORE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SUB- ZERO FOR EVERYBODY!

SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD BE SUNNY, BUT ALWAYS
BEWARE OF SUNNY DAYS IN MID-WINTER. THAT MEANS COLD TOO. 925MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -20C. HIGHS 0 TO 8F WHERE WE LIVE. BRRR.
WARM WEATHER FANS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUNNY SKIES AND PRETEND
TO FEEL THE WARMTH. SATURDAY NIGHT - ANOTHER QUIET AND COLD NIGHT.
SUB-ZERO FOR US ALL AGAIN.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: FAST MOVING TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE
DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK
SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF HERE. GFS SUGGEST JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO THE 50-60% RANGE
FOR SUNDAY NITE/MONDAY. CERTAINLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL
SNOW EVENT WITH LIKELY A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK ENDS UP GOING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED, EARLIER, JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS FOR
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE THE BLENDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM. GFS IS BRUTALLY COLD. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO -35C! THE RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE COME TUESDAY MORNING IS
-25 TO -35F! (NOTE THAT MOS TURNS THAT INTO A -3F FOR BTV), AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE -5 TO -15F. THE ECMWF IS "MUCH"
WARMER -- 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C WITH IT`S RAW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT -15F IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS -5 TO +5F. AT
THIS POINT, HAVE MADE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF.

I DID WANT TO MAKE THE 7TH DAY OF THE FORECAST TO SHOW A +1C FOR A
HIGH TEMPERATURE, JUST TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO WARM WEATHER FANS
AFTER DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING (< 0C) HIGHS. BUT ALAS, IT WASN`T
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW THROUGH 03Z. JUST WANTED TO GET THAT
OUT THERE FIRST.

CURRENTLY, CONDITIONS RANGE FROM IFR/LIFR ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. BANDS OF SNOW ARE SLOWLY
PUSHING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS VERMONT. IN SPOTS, THE SNOW DOES
BRIEFLY RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 1/4SM, BUT IN
GENERAL IT`S MORE LIKE 3/4SM TO 1 1/2SM.

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE INITIAL BATCH OF SNOW IS DRYING UP AS IT
MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
IT MAKES IT TO SLK, THOUGH IT APPEARS MSS WILL STAY VFR. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING A "BREAK IN THE ACTION" DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VT/NH
BORDER. IT COULD BE THAT THIS IS A SIGN THAT THE SNOW WONT LAST
ALL THAT LONG (6 HOURS OR SO) IN ANY SPOT. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ALL THE WAY TO 12Z.

GAVE IT MY BEST SHOT. IN GENERAL GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE BULK
OF THE MODERATE SNOW & LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL LAST UP TO 20-23Z
OR SO, WITH DIMINSHING SNOW THROUGH 03Z (AND MVFR CONDITIONS).
AFTER THAT, VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE. MAY END UP NEEDING TO AMEND
FORECASTS IF THE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE FORECASTS NEED SOME
FIXING.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 20-25KTS SHOULD BE COMMON. PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30KT GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE TAFS, MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR AS
WELL.

FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD, LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271739
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1214 PM EST TUESDAY...FCST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTN
WITH BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW LIFTING ACRS CENTRAL VT
ATTM...WITH VIS AT MPV DOWN TO 1/4SM IN HEAVY SNOW. THIS BAND WL
SLOWLY SHIFT TWD THE CHAMPLAIN THRU THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW EXPECT. CRNT RADAR SHOWS SNOW BREAKING UP
ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...BUT EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
THRU THE AFTN HOURS. HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STORM TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM DUSTING TO 3 INCHES CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS TO 3 TO 6 INCHES CENTRAL VT...AND 5 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS RUTLAND/ORANGE AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. WL HAVE TO
WATCH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT HERE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV THRU THE
AFTN HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL LLVL
MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW ONCE
THE MID/UPPER LVL BECOME SATURATED...THE SNOW MAY STICK AROUND
THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. ALSO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AS WE ARE SEEING LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT ON NORTH
FLW. COLCHESTER REEF SUBSTAIN AT 31 KNOTS AND DIAMOND ISLAND WAS
35 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE MENTION LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR
THE LAKE AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW THROUGH 03Z. JUST WANTED TO GET THAT
OUT THERE FIRST.

CURRENTLY, CONDITIONS RANGE FROM IFR/LIFR ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. BANDS OF SNOW ARE SLOWLY
PUSHING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS VERMONT. IN SPOTS, THE SNOW DOES
BRIEFLY RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 1/4SM, BUT IN
GENERAL IT`S MORE LIKE 3/4SM TO 1 1/2SM.

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE INITIAL BATCH OF SNOW IS DRYING UP AS IT
MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
IT MAKES IT TO SLK, THOUGH IT APPEARS MSS WILL STAY VFR. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING A "BREAK IN THE ACTION" DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VT/NH
BORDER. IT COULD BE THAT THIS IS A SIGN THAT THE SNOW WONT LAST
ALL THAT LONG (6 HOURS OR SO) IN ANY SPOT. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ALL THE WAY TO 12Z.

GAVE IT MY BEST SHOT. IN GENERAL GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE BULK
OF THE MODERATE SNOW & LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL LAST UP TO 20-23Z
OR SO, WITH DIMINSHING SNOW THROUGH 03Z (AND MVFR CONDITIONS).
AFTER THAT, VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE. MAY END UP NEEDING TO AMEND
FORECASTS IF THE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE FORECASTS NEED SOME
FIXING.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 20-25KTS SHOULD BE COMMON. PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30KT GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE TAFS, MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR AS
WELL.

FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD, LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271739
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1214 PM EST TUESDAY...FCST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTN
WITH BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW LIFTING ACRS CENTRAL VT
ATTM...WITH VIS AT MPV DOWN TO 1/4SM IN HEAVY SNOW. THIS BAND WL
SLOWLY SHIFT TWD THE CHAMPLAIN THRU THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW EXPECT. CRNT RADAR SHOWS SNOW BREAKING UP
ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...BUT EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
THRU THE AFTN HOURS. HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STORM TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM DUSTING TO 3 INCHES CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS TO 3 TO 6 INCHES CENTRAL VT...AND 5 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS RUTLAND/ORANGE AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. WL HAVE TO
WATCH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT HERE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV THRU THE
AFTN HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL LLVL
MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW ONCE
THE MID/UPPER LVL BECOME SATURATED...THE SNOW MAY STICK AROUND
THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. ALSO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AS WE ARE SEEING LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT ON NORTH
FLW. COLCHESTER REEF SUBSTAIN AT 31 KNOTS AND DIAMOND ISLAND WAS
35 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE MENTION LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR
THE LAKE AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW THROUGH 03Z. JUST WANTED TO GET THAT
OUT THERE FIRST.

CURRENTLY, CONDITIONS RANGE FROM IFR/LIFR ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. BANDS OF SNOW ARE SLOWLY
PUSHING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS VERMONT. IN SPOTS, THE SNOW DOES
BRIEFLY RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 1/4SM, BUT IN
GENERAL IT`S MORE LIKE 3/4SM TO 1 1/2SM.

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE INITIAL BATCH OF SNOW IS DRYING UP AS IT
MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
IT MAKES IT TO SLK, THOUGH IT APPEARS MSS WILL STAY VFR. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING A "BREAK IN THE ACTION" DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VT/NH
BORDER. IT COULD BE THAT THIS IS A SIGN THAT THE SNOW WONT LAST
ALL THAT LONG (6 HOURS OR SO) IN ANY SPOT. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ALL THE WAY TO 12Z.

GAVE IT MY BEST SHOT. IN GENERAL GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE BULK
OF THE MODERATE SNOW & LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL LAST UP TO 20-23Z
OR SO, WITH DIMINSHING SNOW THROUGH 03Z (AND MVFR CONDITIONS).
AFTER THAT, VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE. MAY END UP NEEDING TO AMEND
FORECASTS IF THE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE FORECASTS NEED SOME
FIXING.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 20-25KTS SHOULD BE COMMON. PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30KT GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE TAFS, MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR AS
WELL.

FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD, LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1225 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1214 PM EST TUESDAY...FCST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTN
WITH BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW LIFTING ACRS CENTRAL VT
ATTM...WITH VIS AT MPV DOWN TO 1/4SM IN HEAVY SNOW. THIS BAND WL
SLOWLY SHIFT TWD THE CHAMPLAIN THRU THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW EXPECT. CRNT RADAR SHOWS SNOW BREAKING UP
ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...BUT EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
THRU THE AFTN HOURS. HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STORM TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM DUSTING TO 3 INCHES CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS TO 3 TO 6 INCHES CENTRAL VT...AND 5 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS RUTLAND/ORANGE AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. WL HAVE TO
WATCH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT HERE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV THRU THE
AFTN HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL LLVL
MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW ONCE
THE MID/UPPER LVL BECOME SATURATED...THE SNOW MAY STICK AROUND
THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. ALSO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AS WE ARE SEEING LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT ON NORTH
FLW. COLCHESTER REEF SUBSTAIN AT 31 KNOTS AND DIAMOND ISLAND WAS
35 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE MENTION LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR
THE LAKE AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 12-15Z...KMPV 13-
15Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR. SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KRUT/KMPV 14Z-
22Z...KBTV/KPBG 17Z-21Z AND KSLK 18Z-23Z.

SNOW WILL LIGHTEN AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT/05Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AS SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6-12KTS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AROUND 25KTS BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST. EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271424
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
924 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 905 AM EST TUESDAY...FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE. OVERALL EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES CENTRAL VT AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN UP FOR NOW...BUT WILL
RECONSIDER AFTER REVIEWING ALL 12Z DATA BEFORE DROPPING ANY HEADLINES.

CRNT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 977MB LOW PRES NEAR THE
40/70 BENCHMARK WITH BUOY 44008 INDICATING RISING
PRES...SUGGESTING LOW PRES WL TRACK JUST EAST OF THIS
LOCATION...WHICH IS ABOUT A 25 MILE SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WL RESULT
IN LESS IMPACT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACRS OUR CWA...WITH GREATEST
IMPACTS ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THRU THIS AFTN. HAVE NOTED VSF VIS
AT 1/2SM IN MODERATE SNOW AND MPV/RUT DOWN TO 1SM IN LIGHT SNOW.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO EXPAND NW INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY
NOON TODAY. LATEST 12Z RAP AND 12Z NAM DOES SHOW MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION CAPTURING SFC FEATURE AND RETROGRADING IT BACK
WESTWARD...TWD THE CAPE. THIS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS CRNT
RADAR SHOWS VERY INTENSE MESO BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ACRS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...MOVING TWD OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS
BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD...WHILE BEST
MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL SUPPORT IS CLOSER TO THE COAST...ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW PRES. ALSO...WITH 977MB LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP HERE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE ENHANCED
CHANNELING WILL OCCUR. HAVE MENTION GUST TO 30 MPH OR SO. REST OF
FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAINING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 12-15Z...KMPV 13-
15Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR. SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KRUT/KMPV 14Z-
22Z...KBTV/KPBG 17Z-21Z AND KSLK 18Z-23Z.

SNOW WILL LIGHTEN AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT/05Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AS SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6-12KTS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AROUND 25KTS BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST. EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271424
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
924 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 905 AM EST TUESDAY...FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE. OVERALL EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES CENTRAL VT AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN UP FOR NOW...BUT WILL
RECONSIDER AFTER REVIEWING ALL 12Z DATA BEFORE DROPPING ANY HEADLINES.

CRNT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 977MB LOW PRES NEAR THE
40/70 BENCHMARK WITH BUOY 44008 INDICATING RISING
PRES...SUGGESTING LOW PRES WL TRACK JUST EAST OF THIS
LOCATION...WHICH IS ABOUT A 25 MILE SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WL RESULT
IN LESS IMPACT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACRS OUR CWA...WITH GREATEST
IMPACTS ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THRU THIS AFTN. HAVE NOTED VSF VIS
AT 1/2SM IN MODERATE SNOW AND MPV/RUT DOWN TO 1SM IN LIGHT SNOW.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO EXPAND NW INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY
NOON TODAY. LATEST 12Z RAP AND 12Z NAM DOES SHOW MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION CAPTURING SFC FEATURE AND RETROGRADING IT BACK
WESTWARD...TWD THE CAPE. THIS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS CRNT
RADAR SHOWS VERY INTENSE MESO BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ACRS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...MOVING TWD OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS
BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD...WHILE BEST
MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL SUPPORT IS CLOSER TO THE COAST...ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW PRES. ALSO...WITH 977MB LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP HERE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE ENHANCED
CHANNELING WILL OCCUR. HAVE MENTION GUST TO 30 MPH OR SO. REST OF
FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAINING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 12-15Z...KMPV 13-
15Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR. SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KRUT/KMPV 14Z-
22Z...KBTV/KPBG 17Z-21Z AND KSLK 18Z-23Z.

SNOW WILL LIGHTEN AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT/05Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AS SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6-12KTS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AROUND 25KTS BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST. EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271156
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAINING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 12-15Z...KMPV 13-
15Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR. SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KRUT/KMPV 14Z-
22Z...KBTV/KPBG 17Z-21Z AND KSLK 18Z-23Z.

SNOW WILL LIGHTEN AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT/05Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AS SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6-12KTS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AROUND 25KTS BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST. EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271156
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAINING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 12-15Z...KMPV 13-
15Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR. SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KRUT/KMPV 14Z-
22Z...KBTV/KPBG 17Z-21Z AND KSLK 18Z-23Z.

SNOW WILL LIGHTEN AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT/05Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AS SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6-12KTS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AROUND 25KTS BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST. EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE 3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST
NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A
CLASSIC MILLER-B EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING
FEATURES PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL
QPF/SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP
AND HRRR ALL COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS
SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND
WEST INTO VT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE
PROGRESSES. MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE 3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST
NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A
CLASSIC MILLER-B EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING
FEATURES PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL
QPF/SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP
AND HRRR ALL COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS
SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND
WEST INTO VT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE
PROGRESSES. MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
MODEL HAS A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
MODEL HAS A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH WELL-
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. IT APPEARS STRONG
MID- UPPER VORT/PV MAX IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AT
2330Z...AND AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES OVER
LOW CENTER...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE COMMENCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH
DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME
WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING
20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH WELL-
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. IT APPEARS STRONG
MID- UPPER VORT/PV MAX IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AT
2330Z...AND AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES OVER
LOW CENTER...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE COMMENCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH
DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME
WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING
20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 262351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH WELL-
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. IT APPEARS STRONG
MID- UPPER VORT/PV MAX IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AT
2330Z...AND AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES OVER
LOW CENTER...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE COMMENCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH
DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME
WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING
20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH WELL-
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. IT APPEARS STRONG
MID- UPPER VORT/PV MAX IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AT
2330Z...AND AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES OVER
LOW CENTER...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE COMMENCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH
DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME
WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING
20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 262100
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
HEADLINES:
*A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
 INCLUDING ORANGE...RUTLAND...WINDSOR. THE WARNING IS FOR 8-14
 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
*A WINTER STORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
 VERMONT INCLUDING ESSEX...CALEDONIA...WASHINGTON...ADDISON. THE
 ADVISORY IS FOR 4-8 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW  AND IS IN EFFECT FROM
 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OFF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IS ALREADY SHOWING THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS REALLY BEGINNING TO FIRE UP.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOPING
HOWEVER THOSE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING NEAR 10PM AS THE LOW TRACKS
TO THE NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONG FRONTOGENIES IS STILL WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THE HEAVIEST MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS TO NOT
REACH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10-20KT
RANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 30KTS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER VERMONT AND OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5 AND ZERO DEGREES. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE APPROACHING WIND CHILL CRITERIA BETWEEN -15 AND
-20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO BE FALLING AS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THROUGHOUT VERMONT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL
SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST
THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION.
THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF
QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF
RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY
A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT 850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262100
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
HEADLINES:
*A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
 INCLUDING ORANGE...RUTLAND...WINDSOR. THE WARNING IS FOR 8-14
 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
*A WINTER STORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
 VERMONT INCLUDING ESSEX...CALEDONIA...WASHINGTON...ADDISON. THE
 ADVISORY IS FOR 4-8 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW  AND IS IN EFFECT FROM
 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OFF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IS ALREADY SHOWING THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS REALLY BEGINNING TO FIRE UP.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOPING
HOWEVER THOSE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING NEAR 10PM AS THE LOW TRACKS
TO THE NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONG FRONTOGENIES IS STILL WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THE HEAVIEST MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS TO NOT
REACH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10-20KT
RANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 30KTS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER VERMONT AND OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5 AND ZERO DEGREES. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE APPROACHING WIND CHILL CRITERIA BETWEEN -15 AND
-20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO BE FALLING AS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THROUGHOUT VERMONT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL
SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST
THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION.
THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF
QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF
RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY
A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT 850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1258 PM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THAT WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS ITS NORTHERN TREK INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE ON TRACK AS WE
ARE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LOW TEENS ALREADY SO MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SHOULD WORK OUT QUITE WELL TODAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS STILL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE FEW LIGHT ECHOS THAT HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP TO THE SOUTH ON COMPOSITE RADAR WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
FALLING AS PRECIP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1258 PM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THAT WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS ITS NORTHERN TREK INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE ON TRACK AS WE
ARE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LOW TEENS ALREADY SO MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SHOULD WORK OUT QUITE WELL TODAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS STILL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE FEW LIGHT ECHOS THAT HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP TO THE SOUTH ON COMPOSITE RADAR WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
FALLING AS PRECIP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 616 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 616 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261117
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
617 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 616 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261117
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
617 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 616 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260827
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260827
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities