Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT TUESDAY...ADDED A LITTLE PATCHY -DZ ACROSS THE
DACKS AND FAR NRN GREENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PER
CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE JUST SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS/SKY THROUGH
SUNSET TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS SOUTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AS CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
MILDEST SOUTH (L-M 60S)...COOLER NORTH (MAINLY 50S) UNDER THE
THICKER CLOUDS. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY RIGHT ABOUT 60. ENJOY THE REST OF
YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW
YORK AND VERMONT SO FAR TODAY. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR,
WITH EVEN SLK SOCKED IN WITH IFR WITH SOME DRIZZLE FALLING FROM
THOSE LOW CLOUDS. AS TYPICAL IN EARLY FALL, THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE
SLOW TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. STILL FEEL THAT WILL HAPPEN NEAR
SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE), LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT. WITH ANY FORECAST, THERE ARE ALWAYS EXCEPTIONS.
IN THIS CASE, TYPICAL LATE NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND POCKETS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE SLK AND MPV TO
TANK DOWN TO LIFR SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS MSS
AND PBG MAY ALSO SEE A TOUCH OF FOG. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A
TEMPO FOR MSS AS THEIR WINDS GO CALM EARLY THIS EVENING. COULD
ALSO BE SOME FOG OVER THE RIVER ADJACENT TO BTV, BUT HOPEFULLY
THAT WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE AIRFIELD, THUS NO MENTION IN THE TAF.
AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE VFR
EVERYWHERE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

VFR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 231753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT TUESDAY...ADDED A LITTLE PATCHY -DZ ACROSS THE
DACKS AND FAR NRN GREENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PER
CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE JUST SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS/SKY THROUGH
SUNSET TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS SOUTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AS CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
MILDEST SOUTH (L-M 60S)...COOLER NORTH (MAINLY 50S) UNDER THE
THICKER CLOUDS. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY RIGHT ABOUT 60. ENJOY THE REST OF
YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW
YORK AND VERMONT SO FAR TODAY. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR,
WITH EVEN SLK SOCKED IN WITH IFR WITH SOME DRIZZLE FALLING FROM
THOSE LOW CLOUDS. AS TYPICAL IN EARLY FALL, THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE
SLOW TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. STILL FEEL THAT WILL HAPPEN NEAR
SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE), LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT. WITH ANY FORECAST, THERE ARE ALWAYS EXCEPTIONS.
IN THIS CASE, TYPICAL LATE NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND POCKETS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE SLK AND MPV TO
TANK DOWN TO LIFR SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS MSS
AND PBG MAY ALSO SEE A TOUCH OF FOG. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A
TEMPO FOR MSS AS THEIR WINDS GO CALM EARLY THIS EVENING. COULD
ALSO BE SOME FOG OVER THE RIVER ADJACENT TO BTV, BUT HOPEFULLY
THAT WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE AIRFIELD, THUS NO MENTION IN THE TAF.
AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE VFR
EVERYWHERE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

VFR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231641
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT TUESDAY...ADDED A LITTLE PATCHY -DZ ACROSS THE
DACKS AND FAR NRN GREENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PER
CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE JUST SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS/SKY THROUGH
SUNSET TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS SOUTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AS CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
MILDEST SOUTH (L-M 60S)...COOLER NORTH (MAINLY 50S) UNDER THE
THICKER CLOUDS. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY RIGHT ABOUT 60. ENJOY THE REST OF
YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT SLK TODAY...AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW CONTS ACRS OUR
TAF SITES. LATEST IR SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...SOME ANTICIPATED A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK TODAY BTWN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT SLK.
ALSO...CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER...BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON TAF SITES WL BE MINIMAL.
GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING >90% BTWN
925MB AND 800MB THRU 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND AFT 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS < 6 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 15
AND 20 KNOTS AT MSS TODAY WITH THE ALIGNED SW TO NE FLW OF WIND
ACRS THE SLV.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT
IN CLRING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK ON WEDS AND THURS
MORNINGS. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231641
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT TUESDAY...ADDED A LITTLE PATCHY -DZ ACROSS THE
DACKS AND FAR NRN GREENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PER
CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE JUST SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS/SKY THROUGH
SUNSET TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS SOUTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AS CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
MILDEST SOUTH (L-M 60S)...COOLER NORTH (MAINLY 50S) UNDER THE
THICKER CLOUDS. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY RIGHT ABOUT 60. ENJOY THE REST OF
YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT SLK TODAY...AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW CONTS ACRS OUR
TAF SITES. LATEST IR SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...SOME ANTICIPATED A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK TODAY BTWN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT SLK.
ALSO...CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER...BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON TAF SITES WL BE MINIMAL.
GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING >90% BTWN
925MB AND 800MB THRU 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND AFT 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS < 6 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 15
AND 20 KNOTS AT MSS TODAY WITH THE ALIGNED SW TO NE FLW OF WIND
ACRS THE SLV.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT
IN CLRING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK ON WEDS AND THURS
MORNINGS. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 231429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF
1015 AM. DID OPT TO TWEAK WINDS/SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TOWARD CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED. STILL
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS OUT OF THE
REGION. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE NRN MTNS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH READINGS RANGING IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH 09Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WITH LEFT EXIT REGION ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND
VT. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA
OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO AND OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM KCXX AND CANADIAN
RADARS INDICATES A REGION OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
AT 1030Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THRU 15Z. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS FROM
PREVAILING STRATUS DECK. ELSEWHERE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS SOUTH...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH MORE INSOLATIONAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 67F. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH THRU
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT SLK TODAY...AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW CONTS ACRS OUR
TAF SITES. LATEST IR SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...SOME ANTICIPATED A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK TODAY BTWN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT SLK.
ALSO...CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER...BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON TAF SITES WL BE MINIMAL.
GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING >90% BTWN
925MB AND 800MB THRU 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND AFT 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS < 6 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 15
AND 20 KNOTS AT MSS TODAY WITH THE ALIGNED SW TO NE FLW OF WIND
ACRS THE SLV.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT
IN CLRING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK ON WEDS AND THURS
MORNINGS. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 231429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF
1015 AM. DID OPT TO TWEAK WINDS/SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TOWARD CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED. STILL
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS OUT OF THE
REGION. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE NRN MTNS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH READINGS RANGING IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH 09Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WITH LEFT EXIT REGION ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND
VT. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA
OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO AND OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM KCXX AND CANADIAN
RADARS INDICATES A REGION OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
AT 1030Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THRU 15Z. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS FROM
PREVAILING STRATUS DECK. ELSEWHERE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS SOUTH...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH MORE INSOLATIONAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 67F. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH THRU
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT SLK TODAY...AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW CONTS ACRS OUR
TAF SITES. LATEST IR SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...SOME ANTICIPATED A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK TODAY BTWN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT SLK.
ALSO...CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER...BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON TAF SITES WL BE MINIMAL.
GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING >90% BTWN
925MB AND 800MB THRU 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND AFT 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS < 6 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 15
AND 20 KNOTS AT MSS TODAY WITH THE ALIGNED SW TO NE FLW OF WIND
ACRS THE SLV.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT
IN CLRING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK ON WEDS AND THURS
MORNINGS. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231120
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 09Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WITH LEFT EXIT REGION
ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND VT. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO AND OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM
KCXX AND CANADIAN RADARS INDICATES A REGION OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER AT 1030Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THRU 15Z.
HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS FROM PREVAILING STRATUS DECK. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH MORE INSOLATIONAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 67F. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH THRU
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT SLK TODAY...AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW CONTS ACRS OUR
TAF SITES. LATEST IR SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...SOME ANTICIPATED A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK TODAY BTWN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT SLK.
ALSO...CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER...BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON TAF SITES WL BE MINIMAL.
GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING >90% BTWN
925MB AND 800MB THRU 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND AFT 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS < 6 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 15
AND 20 KNOTS AT MSS TODAY WITH THE ALIGNED SW TO NE FLW OF WIND
ACRS THE SLV.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT
IN CLRING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK ON WEDS AND THURS
MORNINGS. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231054
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 09Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WITH LEFT EXIT REGION
ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND VT. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO AND OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM
KCXX AND CANADIAN RADARS INDICATES A REGION OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER AT 1030Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THRU 15Z.
HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS FROM PREVAILING STRATUS DECK. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH MORE INSOLATIONAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 67F. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH THRU
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 231054
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 09Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WITH LEFT EXIT REGION
ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND VT. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO AND OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM
KCXX AND CANADIAN RADARS INDICATES A REGION OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER AT 1030Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THRU 15Z.
HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS FROM PREVAILING STRATUS DECK. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH MORE INSOLATIONAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 67F. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH THRU
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 06Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. THE UPSTREAM JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN NY LATER THIS MORNING PER
PROGGED RUC/NAM RH TRENDS. ALSO DEALING WITH LINGERING STRATUS
LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT EARLY THIS
AM. ON BALANCE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. MAY
SEE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE STRATUS LAYER...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. DESPITE LIMITED
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 06Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. THE UPSTREAM JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN NY LATER THIS MORNING PER
PROGGED RUC/NAM RH TRENDS. ALSO DEALING WITH LINGERING STRATUS
LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT EARLY THIS
AM. ON BALANCE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. MAY
SEE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE STRATUS LAYER...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. DESPITE LIMITED
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 230732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 06Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. THE UPSTREAM JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN NY LATER THIS MORNING PER
PROGGED RUC/NAM RH TRENDS. ALSO DEALING WITH LINGERING STRATUS
LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT EARLY THIS
AM. ON BALANCE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. MAY
SEE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE STRATUS LAYER...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. DESPITE LIMITED
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 230732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 06Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. THE UPSTREAM JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN NY LATER THIS MORNING PER
PROGGED RUC/NAM RH TRENDS. ALSO DEALING WITH LINGERING STRATUS
LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT EARLY THIS
AM. ON BALANCE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. MAY
SEE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE STRATUS LAYER...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. DESPITE LIMITED
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230600
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH SOME CONTINUED
WNWLY GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 5-8 MPH) AND AREAS OF CLOUDS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVED AT 10:29 PM EDT THIS PAST
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 230600
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH SOME CONTINUED
WNWLY GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 5-8 MPH) AND AREAS OF CLOUDS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVED AT 10:29 PM EDT THIS PAST
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...TABER











000
FXUS61 KBTV 230458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH SOME CONTINUED
WNWLY GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 5-8 MPH) AND AREAS OF CLOUDS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVED AT 10:29 PM EDT THIS PAST
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH SOME CONTINUED
WNWLY GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 5-8 MPH) AND AREAS OF CLOUDS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVED AT 10:29 PM EDT THIS PAST
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 230203
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. FORECAST LOWS OF
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
MOST OF THE COOLER READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE
FROST AND OR FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230203
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. FORECAST LOWS OF
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
MOST OF THE COOLER READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE
FROST AND OR FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 230031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
831 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 5
TO 10 KNOT RANGE. THUS THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON
MARINE...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
831 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 5
TO 10 KNOT RANGE. THUS THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON
MARINE...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 230003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
803 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
644 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 222244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
644 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AS BASE OF UPPER H5 TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. DRY PBL SHOULD ENSURE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAVORED NRN MTN LOCALES WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE ON
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY BLOCKED FLOW WILL ACT IN CONCERT. LOWS
CLOSE TO BIAS-CORRECT 12Z BLENDED DATA...SUGGESTING READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST SPOTS. COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED FROST IN THE MOST SHELTERED HOLLOWS OF
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM CONTINUES
THIS FALL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF FROST ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT
OMISSION OF ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SFC HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SFC MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AS BASE OF UPPER H5 TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. DRY PBL SHOULD ENSURE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAVORED NRN MTN LOCALES WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE ON
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY BLOCKED FLOW WILL ACT IN CONCERT. LOWS
CLOSE TO BIAS-CORRECT 12Z BLENDED DATA...SUGGESTING READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST SPOTS. COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED FROST IN THE MOST SHELTERED HOLLOWS OF
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM CONTINUES
THIS FALL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF FROST ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT
OMISSION OF ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SFC HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SFC MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL CREATE WAVES FROM
2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE AND
ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER 8 PM OR SO
TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL CREATE WAVES FROM
2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE AND
ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER 8 PM OR SO
TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 221736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 221736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221622
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS ERN VERMONT AT 1130Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL EXIST...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
ACROSS NRN NY...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCD MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AREAWIDE...EXCEPT LOCALLY AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE
IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. WINDS GENERALLY WNW 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS
20-22 KTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CREATING SOME
TURBULENCE BELOW 3 KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...MUCCILLI










000
FXUS61 KBTV 221345
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS ERN VERMONT AT 1130Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL EXIST...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
ACROSS NRN NY...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCD MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AREAWIDE...EXCEPT LOCALLY AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE
IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. WINDS GENERALLY WNW 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS
20-22 KTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CREATING SOME
TURBULENCE BELOW 3 KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221345
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS ERN VERMONT AT 1130Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL EXIST...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
ACROSS NRN NY...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCD MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AREAWIDE...EXCEPT LOCALLY AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE
IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. WINDS GENERALLY WNW 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS
20-22 KTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CREATING SOME
TURBULENCE BELOW 3 KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE
RUNNING IN THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S
ACROSS VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS ERN VERMONT AT 1130Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL EXIST...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
ACROSS NRN NY...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCD MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AREAWIDE...EXCEPT LOCALLY AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE
IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. WINDS GENERALLY WNW 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS
20-22 KTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CREATING SOME
TURBULENCE BELOW 3 KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 221144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE
RUNNING IN THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S
ACROSS VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS ERN VERMONT AT 1130Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL EXIST...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
ACROSS NRN NY...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCD MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AREAWIDE...EXCEPT LOCALLY AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE
IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. WINDS GENERALLY WNW 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS
20-22 KTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CREATING SOME
TURBULENCE BELOW 3 KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE
RUNNING IN THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S
ACROSS VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 221127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE
RUNNING IN THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S
ACROSS VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE RUNNING IN
THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S ACROSS
VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 220730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE RUNNING IN
THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S ACROSS
VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS










000
FXUS61 KBTV 220645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SUNDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST NEEDED TO TWEAK
CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
BECAUSE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER IN THESE SPOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SUNDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST NEEDED TO TWEAK
CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
BECAUSE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER IN THESE SPOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SUNDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST NEEDED TO TWEAK
CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
BECAUSE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER IN THESE SPOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SUNDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST NEEDED TO TWEAK
CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
BECAUSE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER IN THESE SPOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST VERMONT AS OF 00Z MONDAY. EXPECTING AREAS
OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY AND REMAINING MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY FROM 10Z-14Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...WGH/MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 220021
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
821 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...DISTINCT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE
FROM NORTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHWEST TO THE BINGHAMTON NEW YORK AREA.
THIS BAND IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS STILL
MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SO
MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 30 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO CREATE A SHARPER GRADIENT
IN PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND
GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE BAND. EVENTUALLY EVERYTHING
EVOLVES INTO A MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA BY MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST VERMONT AS OF 00Z MONDAY. EXPECTING AREAS
OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY AND REMAINING MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY FROM 10Z-14Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 726 PM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AND
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THUS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...WGH/MUCCILLI
MARINE...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220021
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
821 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...DISTINCT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE
FROM NORTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHWEST TO THE BINGHAMTON NEW YORK AREA.
THIS BAND IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS STILL
MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SO
MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 30 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO CREATE A SHARPER GRADIENT
IN PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND
GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE BAND. EVENTUALLY EVERYTHING
EVOLVES INTO A MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA BY MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST VERMONT AS OF 00Z MONDAY. EXPECTING AREAS
OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY AND REMAINING MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY FROM 10Z-14Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 726 PM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AND
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THUS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...WGH/MUCCILLI
MARINE...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...DISTINCT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE
FROM NORTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHWEST TO THE BINGHAMTON NEW YORK AREA.
THIS BAND IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS STILL
MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SO
MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 30 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO CREATE A SHARPER GRADIENT
IN PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND
GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE BAND. EVENTUALLY EVERYTHING
EVOLVES INTO A MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA BY MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 726 PM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AND
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THUS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...DISTINCT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE
FROM NORTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHWEST TO THE BINGHAMTON NEW YORK AREA.
THIS BAND IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS STILL
MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SO
MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 30 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO CREATE A SHARPER GRADIENT
IN PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND
GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE BAND. EVENTUALLY EVERYTHING
EVOLVES INTO A MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA BY MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 726 PM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AND
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THUS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE
COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW YORK ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING 500 MB LOW DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...EJECTING A VORT CENTER NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. UPPER VORT SPEEDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...WHILE SURFACE LOW LAGS BEHIND OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NY AND PA. SURFACE
WINDS TO SHIFT WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING PRECIP TO AN END FOR
THE MOST PART AS MOISTURE BECOME MORE LIMITED.

SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING AND
CROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT IN PREFRONTAL TROUGH. LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 300-500 J/KG RANGE. EVEN AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
DEWPOINTS LOWERED AS DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SOME
SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH 40KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AVAILABLE. RUMBLE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WHEN LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
LIMITS INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW...BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED BY MORNING.

TEMPS...TONIGHT BEGINS COOLING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH LOWS
IN 40S IN NY AND 50S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POSTFRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO
2 FEET OVERNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE
COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW YORK ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING 500 MB LOW DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...EJECTING A VORT CENTER NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. UPPER VORT SPEEDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...WHILE SURFACE LOW LAGS BEHIND OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NY AND PA. SURFACE
WINDS TO SHIFT WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING PRECIP TO AN END FOR
THE MOST PART AS MOISTURE BECOME MORE LIMITED.

SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING AND
CROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT IN PREFRONTAL TROUGH. LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 300-500 J/KG RANGE. EVEN AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
DEWPOINTS LOWERED AS DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SOME
SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH 40KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AVAILABLE. RUMBLE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WHEN LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
LIMITS INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW...BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED BY MORNING.

TEMPS...TONIGHT BEGINS COOLING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH LOWS
IN 40S IN NY AND 50S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POSTFRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO
2 FEET OVERNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211915
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 128 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK. AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MESO VORT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOW FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS PREFRONTAL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE LINE WITH SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WAITING ON PUSH FROM
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL TO WEST OVER EASTERN GREATLAKES. SURFACE
BASED CAPE UP TO 400-600 J/KG IN WARM SURFACE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO
CONTINUE THREAT FOR THUNDER.

AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REACHING 80 DEGREES UNDER SUNSHINE.
THIS UPDATE ADJUSTS TEMPERATURES UPWARDS...OTHERWISE CONTINUED TO
LEAVE POPS/SKIES ALONE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS IT WELL COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO
2 FEET OVERNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211915
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 128 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK. AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MESO VORT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOW FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS PREFRONTAL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE LINE WITH SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WAITING ON PUSH FROM
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL TO WEST OVER EASTERN GREATLAKES. SURFACE
BASED CAPE UP TO 400-600 J/KG IN WARM SURFACE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO
CONTINUE THREAT FOR THUNDER.

AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REACHING 80 DEGREES UNDER SUNSHINE.
THIS UPDATE ADJUSTS TEMPERATURES UPWARDS...OTHERWISE CONTINUED TO
LEAVE POPS/SKIES ALONE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS IT WELL COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO
2 FEET OVERNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 128 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK. AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MESO VORT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOW FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS PREFRONTAL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE LINE WITH SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WAITING ON PUSH FROM
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL TO WEST OVER EASTERN GREATLAKES. SURFACE
BASED CAPE UP TO 400-600 J/KG IN WARM SURFACE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO
CONTINUE THREAT FOR THUNDER.

AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REACHING 80 DEGREES UNDER SUNSHINE.
THIS UPDATE ADJUSTS TEMPERATURES UPWARDS...OTHERWISE CONTINUED TO
LEAVE POPS/SKIES ALONE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS IT WELL COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 128 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK. AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MESO VORT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOW FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS PREFRONTAL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE LINE WITH SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WAITING ON PUSH FROM
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL TO WEST OVER EASTERN GREATLAKES. SURFACE
BASED CAPE UP TO 400-600 J/KG IN WARM SURFACE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO
CONTINUE THREAT FOR THUNDER.

AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REACHING 80 DEGREES UNDER SUNSHINE.
THIS UPDATE ADJUSTS TEMPERATURES UPWARDS...OTHERWISE CONTINUED TO
LEAVE POPS/SKIES ALONE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS IT WELL COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUD/POP/WEATHER FORECAST IN REALLY
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEED THERE ON THIS UPDATE. ONLY BLENDED
TEMPERATURES INTO OBSERVED AND POPULATED THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPS WITH LAV. THIS RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE CLEAR AREAS
INTO THE MID 70S...MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT. NEW YORK SIDE UNDER THE CLOUDS AND NEARER THE RAIN SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF. IN FACT MASSENA HIT 70 EARLIER AND HAS SINCED
DROPPED TO 68 AT 14Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. RADAR LOOP SHOWING SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING UP ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
MESO-VORT CENTER. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRR MODEL
REFLECTIVITY THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS ON NORTHEAST BUT STAY
MAINLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST RAIN AREA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST. PRESENT POP FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED WELL WITH LIKELY POPS IN NY THROUGH 18Z THEN
SPREADING IN TO VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUD/POP/WEATHER FORECAST IN REALLY
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEED THERE ON THIS UPDATE. ONLY BLENDED
TEMPERATURES INTO OBSERVED AND POPULATED THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPS WITH LAV. THIS RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE CLEAR AREAS
INTO THE MID 70S...MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT. NEW YORK SIDE UNDER THE CLOUDS AND NEARER THE RAIN SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF. IN FACT MASSENA HIT 70 EARLIER AND HAS SINCED
DROPPED TO 68 AT 14Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. RADAR LOOP SHOWING SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING UP ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
MESO-VORT CENTER. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRR MODEL
REFLECTIVITY THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS ON NORTHEAST BUT STAY
MAINLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST RAIN AREA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST. PRESENT POP FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED WELL WITH LIKELY POPS IN NY THROUGH 18Z THEN
SPREADING IN TO VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUD/POP/WEATHER FORECAST IN REALLY
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEED THERE ON THIS UPDATE. ONLY BLENDED
TEMPERATURES INTO OBSERVED AND POPULATED THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPS WITH LAV. THIS RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE CLEAR AREAS
INTO THE MID 70S...MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT. NEW YORK SIDE UNDER THE CLOUDS AND NEARER THE RAIN SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF. IN FACT MASSENA HIT 70 EARLIER AND HAS SINCED
DROPPED TO 68 AT 14Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. RADAR LOOP SHOWING SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING UP ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
MESO-VORT CENTER. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRR MODEL
REFLECTIVITY THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS ON NORTHEAST BUT STAY
MAINLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST RAIN AREA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST. PRESENT POP FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED WELL WITH LIKELY POPS IN NY THROUGH 18Z THEN
SPREADING IN TO VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 16Z. FRONT BEGINS TO
BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z...AND CLOSER TO 23-00Z AT
PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00-01Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH POTENTIAL LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WLY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF
BR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUD/POP/WEATHER FORECAST IN REALLY
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEED THERE ON THIS UPDATE. ONLY BLENDED
TEMPERATURES INTO OBSERVED AND POPULATED THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPS WITH LAV. THIS RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE CLEAR AREAS
INTO THE MID 70S...MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT. NEW YORK SIDE UNDER THE CLOUDS AND NEARER THE RAIN SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF. IN FACT MASSENA HIT 70 EARLIER AND HAS SINCED
DROPPED TO 68 AT 14Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. RADAR LOOP SHOWING SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING UP ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
MESO-VORT CENTER. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRR MODEL
REFLECTIVITY THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS ON NORTHEAST BUT STAY
MAINLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST RAIN AREA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST. PRESENT POP FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED WELL WITH LIKELY POPS IN NY THROUGH 18Z THEN
SPREADING IN TO VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 16Z. FRONT BEGINS TO
BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z...AND CLOSER TO 23-00Z AT
PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00-01Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH POTENTIAL LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WLY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF
BR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MORNING FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY TO NUDGE BACK TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 16Z. FRONT BEGINS TO
BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z...AND CLOSER TO 23-00Z AT
PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00-01Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH POTENTIAL LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WLY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF
BR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MORNING FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY TO NUDGE BACK TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 16Z. FRONT BEGINS TO
BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z...AND CLOSER TO 23-00Z AT
PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00-01Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH POTENTIAL LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WLY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF
BR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211120
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MORNING FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY TO NUDGE BACK TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211120
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MORNING FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY TO NUDGE BACK TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 210805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 210646
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
246 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210646
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
246 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210536
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER.
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210536
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER.
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210245
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER.
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AFTER 10Z. PRESENT CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE OVC035 AND AREA
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE RAIN MOVES IN ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TIMED PRECIP INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/KMSS 10-17Z. WILL BE
A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY KPBG/KBTV/KRUT SITES AFTER 22Z. LEFT
PRECIP OUT OF KMPV FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. CIGS AND VIS TO DROP
TO MVFR WITH THE PRECIP...AND IMPROVE AT KMSS/KSLK BEFORE 00Z
AFTER THE RAIN PASSES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN RAIN AREA MOVES EAST HOWEVER LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE SCT MVFR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AREAS
IFR/LIFR IN FOG EACH MORNING AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI










000
FXUS61 KBTV 210245
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER.
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AFTER 10Z. PRESENT CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE OVC035 AND AREA
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE RAIN MOVES IN ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TIMED PRECIP INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/KMSS 10-17Z. WILL BE
A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY KPBG/KBTV/KRUT SITES AFTER 22Z. LEFT
PRECIP OUT OF KMPV FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. CIGS AND VIS TO DROP
TO MVFR WITH THE PRECIP...AND IMPROVE AT KMSS/KSLK BEFORE 00Z
AFTER THE RAIN PASSES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN RAIN AREA MOVES EAST HOWEVER LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE SCT MVFR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AREAS
IFR/LIFR IN FOG EACH MORNING AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 202354
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
754 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
THE BELOW- NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 753 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
HOWEVER...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 18Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO JUST WEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK. STILL EXPECTING THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS WELL COVERED IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...GUSTY AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH SKY COVER CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM FILTERED SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS TO OVERCAST ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES BETWEEN
SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM RIDGING TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE GUSTS
AND AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. I THINK THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS ACROSS
INTERIOR VT BUT WILL ONLY FILL BACK LATER IN THE EVENING IN AS LOW
CLOUDS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND PASS NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN
AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO FILL BACK IN LATER
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

REGARDING POPS/WX: CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY...HOWEVER
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER POPS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
UP TO LIKELY BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH ONGOING
LIGHTNING TAKING PLACE AND AS AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTER
INDICES ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE OVERSPREADS NORTHERN NEW YORK...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT FOR LOWS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY.
LOWS LIKELY TO BE COOLEST IN NORTHEAST/EAST VT WITH THE COLDER START
/GENERALLY 50S/. IN THE VALLEYS OPTED TO ADD A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN
TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE...YIELDING LOW-MID 60S LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER.
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AFTER 10Z. PRESENT CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE OVC035 AND AREA
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE RAIN MOVES IN ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TIMED PRECIP INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/KMSS 10-17Z. WILL BE
A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY KPBG/KBTV/KRUT SITES AFTER 22Z. LEFT
PRECIP OUT OF KMPV FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. CIGS AND VIS TO DROP
TO MVFR WITH THE PRECIP...AND IMPROVE AT KMSS/KSLK BEFORE 00Z
AFTER THE RAIN PASSES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN RAIN AREA MOVES EAST HOWEVER LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE SCT MVFR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AREAS
IFR/LIFR IN FOG EACH MORNING AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202354
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
754 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
THE BELOW- NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 753 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
HOWEVER...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 18Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO JUST WEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK. STILL EXPECTING THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS WELL COVERED IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...GUSTY AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH SKY COVER CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM FILTERED SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS TO OVERCAST ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES BETWEEN
SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM RIDGING TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE GUSTS
AND AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. I THINK THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS ACROSS
INTERIOR VT BUT WILL ONLY FILL BACK LATER IN THE EVENING IN AS LOW
CLOUDS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND PASS NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN
AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO FILL BACK IN LATER
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

REGARDING POPS/WX: CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY...HOWEVER
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER POPS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
UP TO LIKELY BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH ONGOING
LIGHTNING TAKING PLACE AND AS AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTER
INDICES ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE OVERSPREADS NORTHERN NEW YORK...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT FOR LOWS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY.
LOWS LIKELY TO BE COOLEST IN NORTHEAST/EAST VT WITH THE COLDER START
/GENERALLY 50S/. IN THE VALLEYS OPTED TO ADD A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN
TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE...YIELDING LOW-MID 60S LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER.
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AFTER 10Z. PRESENT CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE OVC035 AND AREA
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE RAIN MOVES IN ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TIMED PRECIP INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/KMSS 10-17Z. WILL BE
A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY KPBG/KBTV/KRUT SITES AFTER 22Z. LEFT
PRECIP OUT OF KMPV FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. CIGS AND VIS TO DROP
TO MVFR WITH THE PRECIP...AND IMPROVE AT KMSS/KSLK BEFORE 00Z
AFTER THE RAIN PASSES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN RAIN AREA MOVES EAST HOWEVER LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE SCT MVFR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AREAS
IFR/LIFR IN FOG EACH MORNING AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 202338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...GUSTY AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH SKY COVER CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS TO OVERCAST ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN VT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES BETWEEN SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM RIDGING TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE GUSTS AND
AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. I THINK THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS ACROSS
INTERIOR VT BUT WILL ONLY FILL BACK LATER IN THE EVENING IN AS LOW
CLOUDS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND PASS NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN
AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO FILL BACK IN LATER
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

REGARDING POPS/WX: CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY...HOWEVER
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER POPS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
UP TO LIKELY BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH ONGOING
LIGHTNING TAKING PLACE AND AS AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTER
INDICES ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE OVERSPREADS NORTHERN NEW YORK...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT FOR LOWS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY.
LOWS LIKELY TO BE COOLEST IN NORTHEAST/EAST VT WITH THE COLDER START
/GENERALLY 50S/. IN THE VALLEYS OPTED TO ADD A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN
TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE...YIELDING LOW-MID 60S LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER.
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AFTER 10Z. PRESENT CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE OVC035 AND AREA
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE RAIN MOVES IN ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TIMED PRECIP INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/KMSS 10-17Z. WILL BE
A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY KPBG/KBTV/KRUT SITES AFTER 22Z. LEFT
PRECIP OUT OF KMPV FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. CIGS AND VIS TO DROP
TO MVFR WITH THE PRECIP...AND IMPROVE AT KMSS/KSLK BEFORE 00Z
AFTER THE RAIN PASSES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN RAIN AREA MOVES EAST HOWEVER LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE SCT MVFR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AREAS
IFR/LIFR IN FOG EACH MORNING AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...GUSTY AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH SKY COVER CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS TO OVERCAST ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN VT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES BETWEEN SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM RIDGING TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE GUSTS AND
AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. I THINK THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS ACROSS
INTERIOR VT BUT WILL ONLY FILL BACK LATER IN THE EVENING IN AS LOW
CLOUDS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND PASS NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN
AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO FILL BACK IN LATER
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

REGARDING POPS/WX: CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY...HOWEVER
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER POPS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
UP TO LIKELY BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH ONGOING
LIGHTNING TAKING PLACE AND AS AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTER
INDICES ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE OVERSPREADS NORTHERN NEW YORK...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT FOR LOWS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY.
LOWS LIKELY TO BE COOLEST IN NORTHEAST/EAST VT WITH THE COLDER START
/GENERALLY 50S/. IN THE VALLEYS OPTED TO ADD A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN
TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE...YIELDING LOW-MID 60S LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER.
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AFTER 10Z. PRESENT CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE OVC035 AND AREA
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE RAIN MOVES IN ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TIMED PRECIP INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/KMSS 10-17Z. WILL BE
A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WITH A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED LINE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY KPBG/KBTV/KRUT SITES AFTER 22Z. LEFT
PRECIP OUT OF KMPV FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. CIGS AND VIS TO DROP
TO MVFR WITH THE PRECIP...AND IMPROVE AT KMSS/KSLK BEFORE 00Z
AFTER THE RAIN PASSES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN RAIN AREA MOVES EAST HOWEVER LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE SCT MVFR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AREAS
IFR/LIFR IN FOG EACH MORNING AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...GUSTY AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH SKY COVER CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS TO OVERCAST ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN VT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES BETWEEN SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM RIDGING TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE GUSTS AND
AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. I THINK THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS ACROSS
INTERIOR VT BUT WILL ONLY FILL BACK LATER IN THE EVENING IN AS LOW
CLOUDS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND PASS NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN
AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO FILL BACK IN LATER
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

REGARDING POPS/WX: CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY...HOWEVER
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER POPS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
UP TO LIKELY BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH ONGOING
LIGHTNING TAKING PLACE AND AS AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTER
INDICES ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE OVERSPREADS NORTHERN NEW YORK...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT FOR LOWS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY.
LOWS LIKELY TO BE COOLEST IN NORTHEAST/EAST VT WITH THE COLDER START
/GENERALLY 50S/. IN THE VALLEYS OPTED TO ADD A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN
TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE...YIELDING LOW-MID 60S LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER.
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KMSS BY 10Z AND
REACH KPBG AND KBTV BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR VISIBILITIES WILL
PERSIST DESPITE THE RAIN. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME
PERIODS OF CONTINUING MVFR CEILINGS DURING SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GENERALLY TRENDING VFR MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH DEVELOPING STRONG
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BY MID-WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI




















000
FXUS61 KBTV 201952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...GUSTY AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH SKY COVER CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS TO OVERCAST ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN VT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES BETWEEN SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM RIDGING TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE GUSTS AND
AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. I THINK THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS ACROSS
INTERIOR VT BUT WILL ONLY FILL BACK LATER IN THE EVENING IN AS LOW
CLOUDS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND PASS NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN
AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO FILL BACK IN LATER
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

REGARDING POPS/WX: CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY...HOWEVER
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER POPS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
UP TO LIKELY BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH ONGOING
LIGHTNING TAKING PLACE AND AS AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTER
INDICES ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE OVERSPREADS NORTHERN NEW YORK...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT FOR LOWS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY.
LOWS LIKELY TO BE COOLEST IN NORTHEAST/EAST VT WITH THE COLDER START
/GENERALLY 50S/. IN THE VALLEYS OPTED TO ADD A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN
TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE...YIELDING LOW-MID 60S LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER.
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KMSS BY 10Z AND
REACH KPBG AND KBTV BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR VISIBILITIES WILL
PERSIST DESPITE THE RAIN. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME
PERIODS OF CONTINUING MVFR CEILINGS DURING SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GENERALLY TRENDING VFR MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH DEVELOPING STRONG
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BY MID-WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI





















000
FXUS61 KBTV 201916
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD...DRY
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA
DURING MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE IN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST STILL ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK.
BETTER MIXING IN AREAS OF CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONGER GUSTS
- UP TO 41 MPH AT BTV. SEE RECENTLY ISSUED PNSBTV FOR A LISTING OF
GUSTS. ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM/EASTERN VT TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY -
WITH DIURNAL HEATING DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN THAT TEMPERATURE
VARIATION ACROSS THE REGION. AS PRIOR FORECAST INDICATED...STILL
THINK THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREENS STAND TO SEE THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPS /UPPER 60S-MID
70S/. UNDER PERSISTENT OVERCAST HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 12Z SUNDAY. ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE BURLINGTON
COUNTY WARNING AREA...LIKELY REACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM FRIDAY MORNING!
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY MORNING BUT NOT
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTERN VERMONT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO
FOR SOME...SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY DRY...MAINLY ACROSS
VERMONT...BUT NOT SO MUCH FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.
HIGH TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY SUNDAY AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. HIGHS
WILL PUSH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ACROSS VT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE WESTWARD IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
THEY`LL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THE PARENT UPPER LOW LAGS BEHIND...NOT MOVING
THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST FEEL WE`LL SEE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS
AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS MONDAY...WHILE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING THOUGH...HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND LOW/MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE BTV COUNTY WARNING AREA SUBSEQUENTLY
ENDING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY RUN IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE
LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH A TREND TOWARD TRANQUIL
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
AND ECMWF.

A LINGERING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS (~25%) ARE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW-
MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AIR MASS
MODERATES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCAL NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THEREAFTER...LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S IN MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KMSS BY 10Z AND
REACH KPBG AND KBTV BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR VISIBILITIES WILL
PERSIST DESPITE THE RAIN. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME
PERIODS OF CONTINUING MVFR CEILINGS DURING SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GENERALLY TRENDING VFR MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH DEVELOPING STRONG
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BY MID-WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201916
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD...DRY
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA
DURING MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE IN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST STILL ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK.
BETTER MIXING IN AREAS OF CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONGER GUSTS
- UP TO 41 MPH AT BTV. SEE RECENTLY ISSUED PNSBTV FOR A LISTING OF
GUSTS. ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM/EASTERN VT TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY -
WITH DIURNAL HEATING DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN THAT TEMPERATURE
VARIATION ACROSS THE REGION. AS PRIOR FORECAST INDICATED...STILL
THINK THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREENS STAND TO SEE THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPS /UPPER 60S-MID
70S/. UNDER PERSISTENT OVERCAST HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 12Z SUNDAY. ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE BURLINGTON
COUNTY WARNING AREA...LIKELY REACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM FRIDAY MORNING!
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY MORNING BUT NOT
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTERN VERMONT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO
FOR SOME...SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY DRY...MAINLY ACROSS
VERMONT...BUT NOT SO MUCH FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.
HIGH TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY SUNDAY AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. HIGHS
WILL PUSH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ACROSS VT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE WESTWARD IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
THEY`LL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THE PARENT UPPER LOW LAGS BEHIND...NOT MOVING
THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST FEEL WE`LL SEE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS
AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS MONDAY...WHILE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING THOUGH...HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND LOW/MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE BTV COUNTY WARNING AREA SUBSEQUENTLY
ENDING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY RUN IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE
LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH A TREND TOWARD TRANQUIL
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
AND ECMWF.

A LINGERING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS (~25%) ARE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW-
MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AIR MASS
MODERATES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCAL NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THEREAFTER...LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S IN MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KMSS BY 10Z AND
REACH KPBG AND KBTV BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR VISIBILITIES WILL
PERSIST DESPITE THE RAIN. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME
PERIODS OF CONTINUING MVFR CEILINGS DURING SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GENERALLY TRENDING VFR MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH DEVELOPING STRONG
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BY MID-WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities