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000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WEATHERWISE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH PATCHY FOG IN
FAVORED LOCALES. SOME VIEWERS HAVE REPORTED A RATHER HAZY SUNSET
THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS DUE TO A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE NUMEROUS WESTERN U.S. FIRES. NOAA-MODELLED VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN CREATING A
SLIGHT MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT TIMES. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WEATHERWISE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH PATCHY FOG IN
FAVORED LOCALES. SOME VIEWERS HAVE REPORTED A RATHER HAZY SUNSET
THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS DUE TO A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE NUMEROUS WESTERN U.S. FIRES. NOAA-MODELLED VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN CREATING A
SLIGHT MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT TIMES. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WEATHERWISE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH PATCHY FOG IN
FAVORED LOCALES. SOME VIEWERS HAVE REPORTED A RATHER HAZY SUNSET
THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS DUE TO A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE NUMEROUS WESTERN U.S. FIRES. NOAA-MODELLED VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN CREATING A
SLIGHT MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT TIMES. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WEATHERWISE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH PATCHY FOG IN
FAVORED LOCALES. SOME VIEWERS HAVE REPORTED A RATHER HAZY SUNSET
THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS DUE TO A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE NUMEROUS WESTERN U.S. FIRES. NOAA-MODELLED VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN CREATING A
SLIGHT MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT TIMES. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW.
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL
STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 312340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW.
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL
STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW.
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL
STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW.
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL
STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL
GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF
CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
QUITE SHALLOW. CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSAGE AROUND NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH PBL STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SUFFICIENT CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL
GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF
CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
QUITE SHALLOW. CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSAGE AROUND NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH PBL STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SUFFICIENT CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER NEXT FEW HRS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
TO BE TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOIST/CLOUD LAYER 3-4KFT AGL...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
INCREASED MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. INCREASING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE REINFORCE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW-W AT 10-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER NEXT FEW HRS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
TO BE TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOIST/CLOUD LAYER 3-4KFT AGL...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
INCREASED MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. INCREASING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE REINFORCE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW-W AT 10-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER NEXT FEW HRS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
TO BE TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOIST/CLOUD LAYER 3-4KFT AGL...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
INCREASED MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. INCREASING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE REINFORCE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW-W AT 10-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER NEXT FEW HRS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
TO BE TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOIST/CLOUD LAYER 3-4KFT AGL...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
INCREASED MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. INCREASING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE REINFORCE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW-W AT 10-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT MONDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP IN SOME
AREAS AT 3-6KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OVERALL ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY.

500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY WEATHER AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...AT
10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT MONDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP IN SOME
AREAS AT 3-6KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OVERALL ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY.

500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY WEATHER AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...AT
10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 311112
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT MONDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP IN SOME
AREAS AT 3-6KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OVERALL ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY.

500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY WEATHER AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...AT
10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311112
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT MONDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP IN SOME
AREAS AT 3-6KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OVERALL ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY.

500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY WEATHER AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...AT
10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALLEY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALLEY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALLEY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALLEY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310808
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310808
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT MONDAY..CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT MONDAY..CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT MONDAY..CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT MONDAY..CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT MONDAY..CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1036 PM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OF THIS
UPDATE WERE TO DELAY THE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH VERMONT. CURRENT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTERD. I MADE THE CHANGES TO THE TEMPS
AND TRENDED THAT INTO THE FUTURE. STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE COLDER REGIONS AND AT ELEVATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR
ENTRAINING IN ALOFT EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
THIS DRYING ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE
LAMOILLE, WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY
YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCPETION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1036 PM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OF THIS
UPDATE WERE TO DELAY THE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH VERMONT. CURRENT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTERD. I MADE THE CHANGES TO THE TEMPS
AND TRENDED THAT INTO THE FUTURE. STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE COLDER REGIONS AND AT ELEVATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR
ENTRAINING IN ALOFT EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
THIS DRYING ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE
LAMOILLE, WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY
YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCPETION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1036 PM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OF THIS
UPDATE WERE TO DELAY THE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH VERMONT. CURRENT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTERD. I MADE THE CHANGES TO THE TEMPS
AND TRENDED THAT INTO THE FUTURE. STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE COLDER REGIONS AND AT ELEVATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR
ENTRAINING IN ALOFT EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
THIS DRYING ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE
LAMOILLE, WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY
YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCPETION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 310247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1036 PM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OF THIS
UPDATE WERE TO DELAY THE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH VERMONT. CURRENT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTERD. I MADE THE CHANGES TO THE TEMPS
AND TRENDED THAT INTO THE FUTURE. STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE COLDER REGIONS AND AT ELEVATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR
ENTRAINING IN ALOFT EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
THIS DRYING ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE
LAMOILLE, WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY
YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCPETION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 302332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING
ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE,
WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCPETION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 302332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING
ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE,
WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCPETION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING
ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE,
WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 302325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING
ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE,
WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING
ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE,
WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING
ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE,
WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 302012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED
VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO SUGGEST POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED A 20 POP TO
COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS.
AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS
5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED
VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO SUGGEST POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED A 20 POP TO
COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS.
AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS
5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301459
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD...AND
MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES. HAVE MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...YIELDING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SW-W 5-8 MPH WITH DEEPER MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301459
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD...AND
MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES. HAVE MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...YIELDING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SW-W 5-8 MPH WITH DEEPER MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301115
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301115
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301115
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 301115
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CROSSES VERMONT WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS SOME SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 300814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CROSSES VERMONT WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS SOME SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CROSSES VERMONT WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS SOME SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CROSSES VERMONT WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS SOME SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 300757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CROSSES VERMONT WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS SOME SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300624
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 300624
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300624
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 300624
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 300513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 300513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1106 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1103 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR ECHOS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY VIRGA AS MOST OF THE ECHOS AREN`T BEING REPORTED AS PRECIP.
THUS I`LL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT THEN THE REST OF THE EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE REST OF
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS EXPECT THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. BASED ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL STAY ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP
OF THIS AS BOTH SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF
THE 700MB TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY
STAY IN THE NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 300306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1106 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1103 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR ECHOS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY VIRGA AS MOST OF THE ECHOS AREN`T BEING REPORTED AS PRECIP.
THUS I`LL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT THEN THE REST OF THE EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE REST OF
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS EXPECT THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. BASED ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL STAY ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP
OF THIS AS BOTH SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF
THE 700MB TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY
STAY IN THE NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS EXPECT
THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. BASED
ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY
ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP OF THIS AS BOTH
SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH
DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY STAY IN THE
NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 292356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS EXPECT
THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. BASED
ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY
ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP OF THIS AS BOTH
SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH
DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY STAY IN THE
NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS EXPECT
THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. BASED
ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY
ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP OF THIS AS BOTH
SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH
DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY STAY IN THE
NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS EXPECT
THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. BASED
ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY
ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP OF THIS AS BOTH
SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH
DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY STAY IN THE
NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 292339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS
BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION
REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND
NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT.
PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND
WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY SPRINKLES TO JUST A
FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS
BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION
REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND
NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT.
PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND
WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY SPRINKLES TO JUST A
FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291947
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS
BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION
REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND
NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT.
PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND
WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY SPRINKLES TO JUST A
FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291947
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS
BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION
REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND
NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT.
PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND
WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY SPRINKLES TO JUST A
FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT SATURDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT LATE SUMMER AFTERNOON
IN PROGRESS. THIN MID- UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING EASTWARD
AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN NY AND VT
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH VALLEY
CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. ALSO...SEE SEE LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE SHORES OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN (PBG CURRENTLY SE@12KTS). A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING ALREADY SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW EROSION OF VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING. BUT OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING ALREADY SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW EROSION OF VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING. BUT OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING ALREADY SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW EROSION OF VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING. BUT OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING ALREADY SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW EROSION OF VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING. BUT OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 291119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING ALREADY SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW EROSION OF VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING. BUT OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY
5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY
5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY
5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 290745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY
5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY
5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 290611
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE
THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT SATURDAY...CIRRUS CLOUDS THE ONLY CHANGING
PARAMETER THIS MORNING. RIDGING CONTINUES THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
FAVORABLE AREAS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONTINUING THE
WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
11-13C...WHICH SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO DIFFICULT TO
SAY EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH
SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.
00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 290611
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE
THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT SATURDAY...CIRRUS CLOUDS THE ONLY CHANGING
PARAMETER THIS MORNING. RIDGING CONTINUES THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
FAVORABLE AREAS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONTINUING THE
WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
11-13C...WHICH SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO DIFFICULT TO
SAY EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH
SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.
00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 290611
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE
THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT SATURDAY...CIRRUS CLOUDS THE ONLY CHANGING
PARAMETER THIS MORNING. RIDGING CONTINUES THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
FAVORABLE AREAS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONTINUING THE
WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
11-13C...WHICH SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO DIFFICULT TO
SAY EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH
SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.
00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF




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