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000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EST THURSDAY...HAVE DROPPED REMAINDER OF
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR VERMONT WITH LATEST
UPDATE. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER PAST FEW HOURS...AND LATEST DATA INDICATES JUST SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
THIS MORNING. LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-
     031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-
     031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1238 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-
     031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1238 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-
     031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 270247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
947 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY
AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 947 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY,
NY INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING
EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF
RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A
WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING
EFFECTS HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL
ESTIMATES SHOWING A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WHERE TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ESSEX, NY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2
INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW
PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING/LIFT TO PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL
EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING
AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL
ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 262356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY
AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


PRIOR DISCUSSION... GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF
THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY
AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


PRIOR DISCUSSION... GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF
THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 262330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARTIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDIITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


PRIOR DISCUSSION...
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED
WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY
NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING
MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT
NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS 700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS
SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO
AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE
NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 262330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARTIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDIITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


PRIOR DISCUSSION...
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED
WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY
NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING
MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT
NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS 700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS
SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO
AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE
NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 262013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1247 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1247 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261650
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1150 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID-DAY
UNDER A MID-LEVEL DECK BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z
AND RAPIDLY SPREADS NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. SNOW ENDS AFTER 08Z NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 10-11Z VERMONT WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING IFR TRENDS TO MVFR AS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261650
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1150 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID-DAY
UNDER A MID-LEVEL DECK BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z
AND RAPIDLY SPREADS NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. SNOW ENDS AFTER 08Z NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 10-11Z VERMONT WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING IFR TRENDS TO MVFR AS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261506
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1006 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 944 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS
OVERSPREADING FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL
OCCUR IN CENTRAL VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM.
INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO
INITIAL SNOW WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF
ICE BENEATH THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW
VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID-DAY
UNDER A MID-LEVEL DECK BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z
AND RAPIDLY SPREADS NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. SNOW ENDS AFTER 08Z NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 10-11Z VERMONT WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING IFR TRENDS TO MVFR AS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ005-016.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>012-017>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261506
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1006 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 944 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS
OVERSPREADING FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL
OCCUR IN CENTRAL VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM.
INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO
INITIAL SNOW WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF
ICE BENEATH THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW
VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID-DAY
UNDER A MID-LEVEL DECK BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z
AND RAPIDLY SPREADS NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. SNOW ENDS AFTER 08Z NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 10-11Z VERMONT WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING IFR TRENDS TO MVFR AS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ005-016.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>012-017>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261156
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
CONDITIONS...AND BLEND WITH FORECAST FOR LATER THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE
WILL BE ARRIVING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT MID-LATE MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK.

STILL RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. BUT COOLER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO REGION AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO
BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE THE EARLY MORNING READINGS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ALONG STALLED FRONT ALONG
CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASS INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W IN VICINITY OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT LATER THIS MORNING AND REST OF VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY. THE SNOW WILL BE RATHER WET TO
START WITH RATIOS GENERALLY FROM 10:1 TO 13:1 THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID-DAY
UNDER A MID-LEVEL DECK BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z
AND RAPIDLY SPREADS NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. SNOW ENDS AFTER 08Z NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 10-11Z VERMONT WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING IFR TRENDS TO MVFR AS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ005-016.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>012-017>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261156
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
CONDITIONS...AND BLEND WITH FORECAST FOR LATER THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE
WILL BE ARRIVING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT MID-LATE MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK.

STILL RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. BUT COOLER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO REGION AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO
BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE THE EARLY MORNING READINGS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ALONG STALLED FRONT ALONG
CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASS INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W IN VICINITY OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT LATER THIS MORNING AND REST OF VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY. THE SNOW WILL BE RATHER WET TO
START WITH RATIOS GENERALLY FROM 10:1 TO 13:1 THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID-DAY
UNDER A MID-LEVEL DECK BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z
AND RAPIDLY SPREADS NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. SNOW ENDS AFTER 08Z NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 10-11Z VERMONT WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING IFR TRENDS TO MVFR AS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ005-016.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>012-017>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO
INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND TO
ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST
NEW YORK.

STILL RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. BUT COOLER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO REGION AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO
BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE THE EARLY MORNING READINGS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ALONG STALLED FRONT ALONG
CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASS INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W IN VICINITY OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT LATER THIS MORNING AND REST OF VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY. THE SNOW WILL BE RATHER WET TO
START WITH RATIOS GENERALLY FROM 10:1 TO 13:1 THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID-DAY
UNDER A MID-LEVEL DECK BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z
AND RAPIDLY SPREADS NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. SNOW ENDS AFTER 08Z NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 10-11Z VERMONT WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING IFR TRENDS TO MVFR AS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ005-016.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>012-017>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO
INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND TO
ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST
NEW YORK.

STILL RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. BUT COOLER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO REGION AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO
BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE THE EARLY MORNING READINGS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ALONG STALLED FRONT ALONG
CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASS INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W IN VICINITY OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT LATER THIS MORNING AND REST OF VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY. THE SNOW WILL BE RATHER WET TO
START WITH RATIOS GENERALLY FROM 10:1 TO 13:1 THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID-DAY
UNDER A MID-LEVEL DECK BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z
AND RAPIDLY SPREADS NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. SNOW ENDS AFTER 08Z NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 10-11Z VERMONT WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING IFR TRENDS TO MVFR AS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ005-016.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>012-017>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 261023
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
523 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO
INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND TO
ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST
NEW YORK.

STILL RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. BUT COOLER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO REGION AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO
BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE THE EARLY MORNING READINGS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ALONG STALLED FRONT ALONG
CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASS INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W IN VICINITY OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT LATER THIS MORNING AND REST OF VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY. THE SNOW WILL BE RATHER WET TO
START WITH RATIOS GENERALLY FROM 10:1 TO 13:1 THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING STORM FOR LATER TODAY ARE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TREND WILL BE BACK
TO MVFR FOR KSLK AFTER 04Z AS THE STORM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY...BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR FOR KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ005-016.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>012-017>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261023
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
523 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO
INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND TO
ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST
NEW YORK.

STILL RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. BUT COOLER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO REGION AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO
BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE THE EARLY MORNING READINGS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ALONG STALLED FRONT ALONG
CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASS INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W IN VICINITY OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT LATER THIS MORNING AND REST OF VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY. THE SNOW WILL BE RATHER WET TO
START WITH RATIOS GENERALLY FROM 10:1 TO 13:1 THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING STORM FOR LATER TODAY ARE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TREND WILL BE BACK
TO MVFR FOR KSLK AFTER 04Z AS THE STORM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY...BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR FOR KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ005-016.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>012-017>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
301 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/WINDS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE AS WINDS
SHIFT INTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH A BROAD INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. A QUICK LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING REGARDING FORECAST FOR WED/WED NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL VT COUNTIES WITH LESS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING STORM FOR LATER TODAY ARE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TREND WILL BE BACK
TO MVFR FOR KSLK AFTER 04Z AS THE STORM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY...BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR FOR KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
301 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/WINDS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE AS WINDS
SHIFT INTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH A BROAD INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. A QUICK LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING REGARDING FORECAST FOR WED/WED NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL VT COUNTIES WITH LESS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING STORM FOR LATER TODAY ARE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TREND WILL BE BACK
TO MVFR FOR KSLK AFTER 04Z AS THE STORM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY...BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR FOR KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1238 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/WINDS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE AS WINDS
SHIFT INTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH A BROAD INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. A QUICK LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING REGARDING FORECAST FOR WED/WED NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL VT COUNTIES WITH LESS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING STORM FOR LATER TODAY ARE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TREND WILL BE BACK
TO MVFR FOR KSLK AFTER 04Z AS THE STORM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY...BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR FOR KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1238 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/WINDS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE AS WINDS
SHIFT INTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH A BROAD INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. A QUICK LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING REGARDING FORECAST FOR WED/WED NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL VT COUNTIES WITH LESS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING STORM FOR LATER TODAY ARE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TREND WILL BE BACK
TO MVFR FOR KSLK AFTER 04Z AS THE STORM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY...BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR FOR KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EST TUESDAY...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...BUT STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MOST SPOTS BY
SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH A
BROAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. A QUICK LOOK AT
RECENT/INCOMING 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST
THINKING REGARDING FORECAST FOR TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL VT COUNTIES WITH LESS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. HAVE
A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING STORM FOR LATER TODAY ARE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TREND WILL BE BACK
TO MVFR FOR KSLK AFTER 04Z AS THE STORM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY...BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR FOR KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EST TUESDAY...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...BUT STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MOST SPOTS BY
SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH A
BROAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. A QUICK LOOK AT
RECENT/INCOMING 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST
THINKING REGARDING FORECAST FOR TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL VT COUNTIES WITH LESS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. HAVE
A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING STORM FOR LATER TODAY ARE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TREND WILL BE BACK
TO MVFR FOR KSLK AFTER 04Z AS THE STORM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY...BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR FOR KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 260234
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
934 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EST TUESDAY...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...BUT STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MOST SPOTS BY
SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH A
BROAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. A QUICK LOOK AT
RECENT/INCOMING 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST
THINKING REGARDING FORECAST FOR TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL VT COUNTIES WITH LESS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. HAVE
A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
DELIVERING BKN-OVC025-045 FOR SAINT LAWRENCE VLY AND NRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND AWAITING THE TYPICAL INCREASING...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OF CLOUD BASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM PRIOR TO DAWN.

LIGHT SNOW REACHES KRUT ARD 12-14Z AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH
DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
STEADIEST SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR DUE TO VSBY AT KRUT AND KMPV
BEFORE END OF THE PERIOD.

BRISK SW/W WINDS OF EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED EXCEPT KMSS/KSLK
BUT THEY WILL THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LGT/VRBL TIL AFT
12Z WHERE A LIGHT NNE FROM THE CIRCULATION OF OUR STORM SYSTEM
DEVELPS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260234
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
934 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EST TUESDAY...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...BUT STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MOST SPOTS BY
SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH A
BROAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. A QUICK LOOK AT
RECENT/INCOMING 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST
THINKING REGARDING FORECAST FOR TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL VT COUNTIES WITH LESS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. HAVE
A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
DELIVERING BKN-OVC025-045 FOR SAINT LAWRENCE VLY AND NRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND AWAITING THE TYPICAL INCREASING...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OF CLOUD BASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM PRIOR TO DAWN.

LIGHT SNOW REACHES KRUT ARD 12-14Z AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH
DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
STEADIEST SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR DUE TO VSBY AT KRUT AND KMPV
BEFORE END OF THE PERIOD.

BRISK SW/W WINDS OF EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED EXCEPT KMSS/KSLK
BUT THEY WILL THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LGT/VRBL TIL AFT
12Z WHERE A LIGHT NNE FROM THE CIRCULATION OF OUR STORM SYSTEM
DEVELPS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 252335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 635 PM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID
ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SRN VT COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE
THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO TWEAKED T/TD
DATASETS TO BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S./CAROLINA COASTLINE.
GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION
AND DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. MAY SEE A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND
SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THIS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID
AND UPPER CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC LOW AREAWIDE
(FROM SOUTH TO NORTH) AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE SW 10-20
MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES...WILL SEE DIMINISHING WIND...WEST 5-10 MPH LATE
IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID- UPPER 20S FOR MOST
SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LOCALLY NEAR
30F ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
DELIVERING BKN-OVC025-045 FOR SAINT LAWRENCE VLY AND NRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND AWAITING THE TYPICAL INCREASING...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OF CLOUD BASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM PRIOR TO DAWN.

LIGHT SNOW REACHES KRUT ARD 12-14Z AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH
DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
STEADIEST SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR DUE TO VSBY AT KRUT AND KMPV
BEFORE END OF THE PERIOD.

BRISK SW/W WINDS OF EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED EXCEPT KMSS/KSLK
BUT THEY WILL THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LGT/VRBL TIL AFT
12Z WHERE A LIGHT NNE FROM THE CIRCULATION OF OUR STORM SYSTEM
DEVELPS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 252335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 635 PM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID
ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SRN VT COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE
THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO TWEAKED T/TD
DATASETS TO BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S./CAROLINA COASTLINE.
GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION
AND DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. MAY SEE A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND
SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THIS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID
AND UPPER CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC LOW AREAWIDE
(FROM SOUTH TO NORTH) AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE SW 10-20
MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES...WILL SEE DIMINISHING WIND...WEST 5-10 MPH LATE
IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID- UPPER 20S FOR MOST
SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LOCALLY NEAR
30F ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
DELIVERING BKN-OVC025-045 FOR SAINT LAWRENCE VLY AND NRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND AWAITING THE TYPICAL INCREASING...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OF CLOUD BASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM PRIOR TO DAWN.

LIGHT SNOW REACHES KRUT ARD 12-14Z AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH
DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
STEADIEST SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR DUE TO VSBY AT KRUT AND KMPV
BEFORE END OF THE PERIOD.

BRISK SW/W WINDS OF EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED EXCEPT KMSS/KSLK
BUT THEY WILL THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LGT/VRBL TIL AFT
12Z WHERE A LIGHT NNE FROM THE CIRCULATION OF OUR STORM SYSTEM
DEVELPS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S./CAROLINA COASTLINE. GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. MAY SEE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
THIS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF SYNOPTIC LOW AREAWIDE (FROM SOUTH TO NORTH) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SW 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...WILL SEE DIMINISHING
WIND...WEST 5-10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND LOCALLY NEAR 30F ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
DELIVERING BKN-OVC025-045 FOR SAINT LAWRENCE VLY AND NRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND AWAITING THE TYPICAL INCREASING...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OF CLOUD BASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM PRIOR TO DAWN.

LIGHT SNOW REACHES KRUT ARD 12-14Z AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH
DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
STEADIEST SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR DUE TO VSBY AT KRUT AND KMPV
BEFORE END OF THE PERIOD.

BRISK SW/W WINDS OF EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED EXCEPT KMSS/KSLK
BUT THEY WILL THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LGT/VRBL TIL AFT
12Z WHERE A LIGHT NNE FROM THE CIRCULATION OF OUR STORM SYSTEM
DEVELPS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 252326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S./CAROLINA COASTLINE. GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. MAY SEE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
THIS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF SYNOPTIC LOW AREAWIDE (FROM SOUTH TO NORTH) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SW 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...WILL SEE DIMINISHING
WIND...WEST 5-10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND LOCALLY NEAR 30F ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
DELIVERING BKN-OVC025-045 FOR SAINT LAWRENCE VLY AND NRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND AWAITING THE TYPICAL INCREASING...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OF CLOUD BASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM PRIOR TO DAWN.

LIGHT SNOW REACHES KRUT ARD 12-14Z AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH
DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
STEADIEST SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR DUE TO VSBY AT KRUT AND KMPV
BEFORE END OF THE PERIOD.

BRISK SW/W WINDS OF EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED EXCEPT KMSS/KSLK
BUT THEY WILL THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LGT/VRBL TIL AFT
12Z WHERE A LIGHT NNE FROM THE CIRCULATION OF OUR STORM SYSTEM
DEVELPS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S./CAROLINA COASTLINE. GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. MAY SEE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
THIS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF SYNOPTIC LOW AREAWIDE (FROM SOUTH TO NORTH) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SW 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...WILL SEE DIMINISHING
WIND...WEST 5-10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND LOCALLY NEAR 30F ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT KMSS AND 20-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT AND LOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF SNOW AT
MPV, RUT, AND SLK AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 252045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S./CAROLINA COASTLINE. GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. MAY SEE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
THIS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF SYNOPTIC LOW AREAWIDE (FROM SOUTH TO NORTH) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SW 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...WILL SEE DIMINISHING
WIND...WEST 5-10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND LOCALLY NEAR 30F ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT KMSS AND 20-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT AND LOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF SNOW AT
MPV, RUT, AND SLK AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252032
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS
DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. SNOW WILL
END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S./CAROLINA COASTLINE. GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. MAY SEE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
THIS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF SYNOPTIC LOW AREAWIDE (FROM SOUTH TO NORTH) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SW 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...WILL SEE DIMINISHING
WIND...WEST 5-10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND LOCALLY NEAR 30F ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND SFC LOW
TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT APPEARS THE LOW
WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE WILL BE A SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE GREATEST TRAVEL
IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL BE ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING
HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF AREAWIDE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WET
WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WITH
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN
VERMONT. GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA.
AGAIN...GREATEST TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS
EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL
BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE PICTURE AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION HOWEVER...AND THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LINGERING
UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS RETURN BY SATURDAY HOWEVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A FEW
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO
SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT KMSS AND 20-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT AND LOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF SNOW AT
MPV, RUT, AND SLK AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252032
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS
DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. SNOW WILL
END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S./CAROLINA COASTLINE. GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. MAY SEE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
THIS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF SYNOPTIC LOW AREAWIDE (FROM SOUTH TO NORTH) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SW 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...WILL SEE DIMINISHING
WIND...WEST 5-10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND LOCALLY NEAR 30F ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND SFC LOW
TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT APPEARS THE LOW
WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE WILL BE A SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE GREATEST TRAVEL
IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL BE ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING
HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF AREAWIDE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WET
WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WITH
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN
VERMONT. GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA.
AGAIN...GREATEST TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS
EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL
BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE PICTURE AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION HOWEVER...AND THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LINGERING
UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS RETURN BY SATURDAY HOWEVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A FEW
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO
SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT KMSS AND 20-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT AND LOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF SNOW AT
MPV, RUT, AND SLK AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251830
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT, AND
TAPER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S TODAY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1212 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NORTH COUNTRY IS UNDER DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM
CANADA TO MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED BY TO WEST WITH
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
QUEBEC. A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS. NRN NY AND VT
WILL HAVE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL
LARGELY OFFSET DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
RISE A FEW DEGREES THRU THE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 40S TO
LOWER 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT LOCALLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE SWLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS 25-35
MPH...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. A FEW
DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OF A MTN FLURRY ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE APPROACHING COASTAL
LOW TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS MID DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME NICELY INTO AGREEMENT
WITH VERY LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
500 MB ROUNDS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID
SOUTH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS ITS TURN UP THE COAST. SURFACE
LOW SPINS UP OFF THE CAROLINAS AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT. ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO 40N LATITUDE AT
ABOUT THE SAME TIME 00Z THURS. GFS TAKES IT RIGHT OVER 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, WHILE ECMWF AND NAM JUST A LITTLE ON THE INSIDE. ALSO
NOT SEEING THE THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT THE MODELS
HAD IN EARLIER RUNS.

TRACK OF THE LOW PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COLD AIR TO
SUPPORT NEARLY ALL SNOW, HOWEVER AT ONSET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
SURFACE TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN TO MIX IN. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PEAK
SNOWFALL FROM ABOUT 21Z WED THROUGH 06Z THURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR
KVSF ALIGNS MAX RH AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MIDDLE OF
FAVORED -12 TO -18C SNOW GROWTH ZONE FROM 20Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW VERY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF GRADIENTS AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE THE QPF. CAME UP WITH A
STORM TOTAL QPF OF .50 TO .75 INCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE CONNECTICUTRIVER
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. .25 INCH FROM NEWPORT VT THROUGH SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, AND A TENTH OR LESS TO THE
NORTHWEST. USING CLIMO SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ANYWHERE FROM 13-16:1
YIELDED STORM TOTAL SNOW 8-10 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND 6-8
ESSEX/CALEDONIA/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON/EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES VT.
THIS IS AN UPTICK OVER PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AND WARRANTS
A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THOSE
COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
06-12Z THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING WEST TO EAST. SNOW TO HANG ON
LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATES
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS
EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL
BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE PICTURE AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION HOWEVER...AND THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LINGERING
UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS RETURN BY SATURDAY HOWEVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A FEW
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO
SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT KMSS AND 20-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT AND LOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF SNOW AT
MPV, RUT, AND SLK AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ004-007-008-010>012-018-019.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251830
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT, AND
TAPER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S TODAY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1212 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NORTH COUNTRY IS UNDER DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM
CANADA TO MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED BY TO WEST WITH
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
QUEBEC. A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS. NRN NY AND VT
WILL HAVE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL
LARGELY OFFSET DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
RISE A FEW DEGREES THRU THE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 40S TO
LOWER 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT LOCALLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE SWLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS 25-35
MPH...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. A FEW
DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OF A MTN FLURRY ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE APPROACHING COASTAL
LOW TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS MID DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME NICELY INTO AGREEMENT
WITH VERY LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
500 MB ROUNDS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID
SOUTH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS ITS TURN UP THE COAST. SURFACE
LOW SPINS UP OFF THE CAROLINAS AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT. ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO 40N LATITUDE AT
ABOUT THE SAME TIME 00Z THURS. GFS TAKES IT RIGHT OVER 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, WHILE ECMWF AND NAM JUST A LITTLE ON THE INSIDE. ALSO
NOT SEEING THE THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT THE MODELS
HAD IN EARLIER RUNS.

TRACK OF THE LOW PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COLD AIR TO
SUPPORT NEARLY ALL SNOW, HOWEVER AT ONSET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
SURFACE TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN TO MIX IN. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PEAK
SNOWFALL FROM ABOUT 21Z WED THROUGH 06Z THURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR
KVSF ALIGNS MAX RH AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MIDDLE OF
FAVORED -12 TO -18C SNOW GROWTH ZONE FROM 20Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW VERY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF GRADIENTS AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE THE QPF. CAME UP WITH A
STORM TOTAL QPF OF .50 TO .75 INCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE CONNECTICUTRIVER
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. .25 INCH FROM NEWPORT VT THROUGH SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, AND A TENTH OR LESS TO THE
NORTHWEST. USING CLIMO SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ANYWHERE FROM 13-16:1
YIELDED STORM TOTAL SNOW 8-10 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND 6-8
ESSEX/CALEDONIA/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON/EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES VT.
THIS IS AN UPTICK OVER PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AND WARRANTS
A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THOSE
COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
06-12Z THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING WEST TO EAST. SNOW TO HANG ON
LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATES
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS
EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL
BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE PICTURE AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION HOWEVER...AND THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LINGERING
UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS RETURN BY SATURDAY HOWEVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A FEW
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO
SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT KMSS AND 20-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT AND LOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF SNOW AT
MPV, RUT, AND SLK AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ004-007-008-010>012-018-019.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251722
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT, AND TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
TODAY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1212 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NORTH COUNTRY IS UNDER DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM CANADA TO
MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED BY TO WEST WITH SURFACE LOW
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS. NRN NY AND VT WILL HAVE
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL LARGELY
OFFSET DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A
FEW DEGREES THRU THE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT LOCALLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SWLY
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST IN THE
IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. A FEW DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OF A MTN
FLURRY ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE APPROACHING COASTAL
LOW TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS MID DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME NICELY INTO AGREEMENT
WITH VERY LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
500 MB ROUNDS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID
SOUTH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS ITS TURN UP THE COAST. SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP OFF THE CAROLINAS AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT. ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO 40N LATITUDE AT
ABOUT THE SAME TIME 00Z THURS. GFS TAKES IT RIGHT OVER 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, WHILE ECMWF AND NAM JUST A LITTLE ON THE INSIDE. ALSO
NOT SEEING THE THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT THE MODELS
HAD IN EARLIER RUNS.

TRACK OF THE LOW PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COLD AIR TO SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL SNOW, HOWEVER AT ONSET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SURFACE
TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PEAK SNOWFALL FROM
ABOUT 21Z WED THROUGH 06Z THURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KVSF ALIGNS MAX
RH AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MIDDLE OF FAVORED -12 TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH ZONE FROM 20Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW VERY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF GRADIENTS AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE THE QPF. CAME UP WITH A
STORM TOTAL QPF OF .50 TO .75 INCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. .25 INCH FROM NEWPORT VT THROUGH SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, AND A TENTH OR LESS TO THE
NORTHWEST. USING CLIMO SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ANYWHERE FROM 13-16:1
YIELDED STORM TOTAL SNOW 8-10 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND 6-8
ESSEX/CALEDONIA/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON/EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES VT.
THIS IS AN UPTICK OVER PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AND WARRANTS
A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THOSE
COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE 06-12Z
THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING WEST TO EAST. SNOW  TO HANG ON LONGEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATES UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE PICTURE AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION HOWEVER...AND THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MAY
GENERATE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS RETURN BY SATURDAY HOWEVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A FEW
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO
SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
IS KSLK WHERE CEILINGS WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT KMSS AND 20-25 KTS ELSEWHERE.
TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ004-007-008-010>012-018-019.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251448
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
948 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT, AND TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
TODAY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 943 AM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY IS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500
MB WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM CANADA TO
MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED BY TO WEST WITH SURFACE LOW
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL THROUGH THE AREA AND IS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. WE WILL HAVE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL LARGELY OFFSET DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES THRU THE DAY.

NEAR TERM FORECAST FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO WRAP UP WIND ADVISORY IN
NORTHERN NY WITH NOT NEARLY AS WARM TEMPERATURES AS PREVIOUS DAYS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING A BIT IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH. PEAK WINDS OF LOW LEVEL JET 50 PLUS
KNOTS ABOVE 925 MB HAVE MOVED ALONG ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT
SURFACE OBS STILL COMING IN WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 KTS RANGE AS OF
08Z. WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z FORECAST
UPDATE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND THATS ABOUT AS WARM AS THEY
WILL GET. SURFACE WINDS FORECAST TO KEEP SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, BUT
STILL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING DURING THE DAY
TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z WHICH WOULD SUPPORT READINGS IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES THRU THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE APPROACHING COASTAL
LOW TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS MID DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME NICELY INTO AGREEMENT
WITH VERY LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
500 MB ROUNDS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID
SOUTH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS ITS TURN UP THE COAST. SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP OFF THE CAROLINAS AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT. ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO 40N LATITUDE AT
ABOUT THE SAME TIME 00Z THURS. GFS TAKES IT RIGHT OVER 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, WHILE ECMWF AND NAM JUST A LITTLE ON THE INSIDE. ALSO
NOT SEEING THE THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT THE MODELS
HAD IN EARLIER RUNS.

TRACK OF THE LOW PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COLD AIR TO SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL SNOW, HOWEVER AT ONSET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SURFACE
TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PEAK SNOWFALL FROM
ABOUT 21Z WED THROUGH 06Z THURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KVSF ALIGNS MAX
RH AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MIDDLE OF FAVORED -12 TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH ZONE FROM 20Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW VERY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF GRADIENTS AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE THE QPF. CAME UP WITH A
STORM TOTAL QPF OF .50 TO .75 INCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. .25 INCH FROM NEWPORT VT THROUGH SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, AND A TENTH OR LESS TO THE
NORTHWEST. USING CLIMO SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ANYWHERE FROM 13-16:1
YIELDED STORM TOTAL SNOW 8-10 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND 6-8
ESSEX/CALEDONIA/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON/EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES VT.
THIS IS AN UPTICK OVER PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AND WARRANTS
A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THOSE
COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE 06-12Z
THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING WEST TO EAST. SNOW  TO HANG ON LONGEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATES UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE PICTURE AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION HOWEVER...AND THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MAY
GENERATE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS RETURN BY SATURDAY HOWEVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A FEW
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO
SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
IS KSLK WHERE CEILINGS WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT KMSS AND 20-25 KTS ELSEWHERE.
TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ004-007-008-010>012-018-019.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251448
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
948 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT, AND TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
TODAY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 943 AM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY IS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500
MB WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM CANADA TO
MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED BY TO WEST WITH SURFACE LOW
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL THROUGH THE AREA AND IS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. WE WILL HAVE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL LARGELY OFFSET DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES THRU THE DAY.

NEAR TERM FORECAST FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO WRAP UP WIND ADVISORY IN
NORTHERN NY WITH NOT NEARLY AS WARM TEMPERATURES AS PREVIOUS DAYS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING A BIT IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH. PEAK WINDS OF LOW LEVEL JET 50 PLUS
KNOTS ABOVE 925 MB HAVE MOVED ALONG ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT
SURFACE OBS STILL COMING IN WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 KTS RANGE AS OF
08Z. WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z FORECAST
UPDATE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND THATS ABOUT AS WARM AS THEY
WILL GET. SURFACE WINDS FORECAST TO KEEP SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, BUT
STILL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING DURING THE DAY
TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z WHICH WOULD SUPPORT READINGS IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES THRU THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE APPROACHING COASTAL
LOW TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS MID DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME NICELY INTO AGREEMENT
WITH VERY LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
500 MB ROUNDS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID
SOUTH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS ITS TURN UP THE COAST. SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP OFF THE CAROLINAS AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT. ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO 40N LATITUDE AT
ABOUT THE SAME TIME 00Z THURS. GFS TAKES IT RIGHT OVER 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, WHILE ECMWF AND NAM JUST A LITTLE ON THE INSIDE. ALSO
NOT SEEING THE THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT THE MODELS
HAD IN EARLIER RUNS.

TRACK OF THE LOW PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COLD AIR TO SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL SNOW, HOWEVER AT ONSET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SURFACE
TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PEAK SNOWFALL FROM
ABOUT 21Z WED THROUGH 06Z THURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KVSF ALIGNS MAX
RH AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MIDDLE OF FAVORED -12 TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH ZONE FROM 20Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW VERY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF GRADIENTS AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE THE QPF. CAME UP WITH A
STORM TOTAL QPF OF .50 TO .75 INCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. .25 INCH FROM NEWPORT VT THROUGH SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, AND A TENTH OR LESS TO THE
NORTHWEST. USING CLIMO SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ANYWHERE FROM 13-16:1
YIELDED STORM TOTAL SNOW 8-10 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND 6-8
ESSEX/CALEDONIA/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON/EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES VT.
THIS IS AN UPTICK OVER PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AND WARRANTS
A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THOSE
COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE 06-12Z
THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING WEST TO EAST. SNOW  TO HANG ON LONGEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATES UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE PICTURE AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION HOWEVER...AND THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MAY
GENERATE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS RETURN BY SATURDAY HOWEVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A FEW
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO
SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
IS KSLK WHERE CEILINGS WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT KMSS AND 20-25 KTS ELSEWHERE.
TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ004-007-008-010>012-018-019.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 251143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
643 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT, AND TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
TODAY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY... FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR TERM UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM CANADA TO MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
PASSED BY TO WEST WITH SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREATLAKES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL
THROUGH THE AREA AND IS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

NEAR TERM FORECAST FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO WRAP UP WIND ADVISORY IN
NORTHERN NY WITH NOT NEARLY AS WARM TEMPERATURES AS PREVIOUS DAYS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING A BIT IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING TO NORTH. PEAK WINDS OF LOW LEVEL JET 50 PLUS KNOTS
ABOVE 925 MB HAVE MOVED ALONG ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT SURFACE OBS
STILL COMING IN WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 KTS RANGE AS OF 08Z. WILL
CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z FORECAST UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND THATS ABOUT AS WARM AS THEY WILL GET.
SURFACE WINDS FORECAST TO KEEP SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, BUT STILL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING DURING THE DAY TO NEAR 0C
BY 00Z WHICH WOULD SUPPORT READINGS IN THE 40S. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE APPROACHING COASTAL
LOW TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS MID DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME NICELY INTO AGREEMENT
WITH VERY LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
500 MB ROUNDS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID
SOUTH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS ITS TURN UP THE COAST. SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP OFF TEH CAROLINAS AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO 40N LATITUDE AT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME 00Z THURS. GFS TAKES IT RIGHT OVER 40N/70W BENCHMARK,
WHILE ECMWF AND NAM JUST A LITTLE ON THE INSIDE. ALSO NOT SEEING THE
THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT THE MODELS HAD IN EARLIER RUNS.

TRACK OF THE LOW PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COLD AIR TO SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL SNOW, HOWEVER AT ONSET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SURFACE
TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PEAK SNOWFALL FROM
ABOUT 21Z WED THROUGH 06Z THURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KVSF ALIGNS MAX
RH AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MIDDLE OF FAVORED -12 TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH ZONE FROM 20Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW VERY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF GRADIENTS AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE THE QPF. CAME UP WITH A
STORM TOTAL QPF OF .50 TO .75 INCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. .25 INCH FROM NEWPORT VT THROUGH SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, AND A TENTH OR LESS TO THE
NORTHWEST. USING CLIMO SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ANYWHERE FROM 13-16:1
YIELDED STORM TOTAL SNOW 8-10 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND 6-8
ESSEX/CALEDONIA/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON/EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES VT.
THIS IS AN UPTICK OVER PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AND WARRANTS A
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THOSE COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE 06-12Z
THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING WEST TO EAST. SNOW  TO HANG ON LONGEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATES UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE PICTURE AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION HOWEVER...AND THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MAY
GENERATE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS RETURN BY SATURDAY HOWEVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A FEW
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO
SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
IS KSLK WHERE CEILINGS WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT KMSS AND 20-25 KTS ELSEWHERE.
TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ004-007-008-010>012-018-019.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
643 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT, AND TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
TODAY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY... FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR TERM UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM CANADA TO MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
PASSED BY TO WEST WITH SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREATLAKES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL
THROUGH THE AREA AND IS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

NEAR TERM FORECAST FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO WRAP UP WIND ADVISORY IN
NORTHERN NY WITH NOT NEARLY AS WARM TEMPERATURES AS PREVIOUS DAYS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING A BIT IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING TO NORTH. PEAK WINDS OF LOW LEVEL JET 50 PLUS KNOTS
ABOVE 925 MB HAVE MOVED ALONG ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT SURFACE OBS
STILL COMING IN WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 KTS RANGE AS OF 08Z. WILL
CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z FORECAST UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND THATS ABOUT AS WARM AS THEY WILL GET.
SURFACE WINDS FORECAST TO KEEP SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, BUT STILL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING DURING THE DAY TO NEAR 0C
BY 00Z WHICH WOULD SUPPORT READINGS IN THE 40S. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE APPROACHING COASTAL
LOW TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS MID DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME NICELY INTO AGREEMENT
WITH VERY LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
500 MB ROUNDS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID
SOUTH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS ITS TURN UP THE COAST. SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP OFF TEH CAROLINAS AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO 40N LATITUDE AT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME 00Z THURS. GFS TAKES IT RIGHT OVER 40N/70W BENCHMARK,
WHILE ECMWF AND NAM JUST A LITTLE ON THE INSIDE. ALSO NOT SEEING THE
THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT THE MODELS HAD IN EARLIER RUNS.

TRACK OF THE LOW PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COLD AIR TO SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL SNOW, HOWEVER AT ONSET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SURFACE
TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PEAK SNOWFALL FROM
ABOUT 21Z WED THROUGH 06Z THURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KVSF ALIGNS MAX
RH AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MIDDLE OF FAVORED -12 TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH ZONE FROM 20Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW VERY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF GRADIENTS AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE THE QPF. CAME UP WITH A
STORM TOTAL QPF OF .50 TO .75 INCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. .25 INCH FROM NEWPORT VT THROUGH SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, AND A TENTH OR LESS TO THE
NORTHWEST. USING CLIMO SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ANYWHERE FROM 13-16:1
YIELDED STORM TOTAL SNOW 8-10 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND 6-8
ESSEX/CALEDONIA/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON/EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES VT.
THIS IS AN UPTICK OVER PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AND WARRANTS A
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THOSE COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE 06-12Z
THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING WEST TO EAST. SNOW  TO HANG ON LONGEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATES UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE PICTURE AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION HOWEVER...AND THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MAY
GENERATE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS RETURN BY SATURDAY HOWEVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A FEW
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO
SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
IS KSLK WHERE CEILINGS WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT KMSS AND 20-25 KTS ELSEWHERE.
TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ004-007-008-010>012-018-019.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250918
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
418 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT, AND TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
TODAY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY... FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR TERM UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM CANADA TO MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
PASSED BY TO WEST WITH SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREATLAKES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL
THROUGH THE AREA AND IS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

NEAR TERM FORECAST FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO WRAP UP WIND ADVISORY IN
NORTHERN NY WITH NOT NEARLY AS WARM TEMPERATURES AS PREVIOUS DAYS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING A BIT IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING TO NORTH. PEAK WINDS OF LOW LEVEL JET 50 PLUS KNOTS
ABOVE 925 MB HAVE MOVED ALONG ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT SURFACE OBS
STILL COMING IN WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 KTS RANGE AS OF 08Z. WILL
CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z FORECAST UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND THATS ABOUT AS WARM AS THEY WILL GET.
SURFACE WINDS FORECAST TO KEEP SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, BUT STILL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING DURING THE DAY TO NEAR 0C
BY 00Z WHICH WOULD SUPPORT READINGS IN THE 40S. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE APPROACHING COASTAL
LOW TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS MID DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME NICELY INTO AGREEMENT
WITH VERY LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
500 MB ROUNDS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID
SOUTH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS ITS TURN UP THE COAST. SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP OFF TEH CAROLINAS AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO 40N LATITUDE AT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME 00Z THURS. GFS TAKES IT RIGHT OVER 40N/70W BENCHMARK,
WHILE ECMWF AND NAM JUST A LITTLE ON THE INSIDE. ALSO NOT SEEING THE
THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT THE MODELS HAD IN EARLIER RUNS.

TRACK OF THE LOW PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COLD AIR TO SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL SNOW, HOWEVER AT ONSET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SURFACE
TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PEAK SNOWFALL FROM
ABOUT 21Z WED THROUGH 06Z THURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KVSF ALIGNS MAX
RH AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MIDDLE OF FAVORED -12 TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH ZONE FROM 20Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW VERY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF GRADIENTS AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE THE QPF. CAME UP WITH A
STORM TOTAL QPF OF .50 TO .75 INCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. .25 INCH FROM NEWPORT VT THROUGH SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, AND A TENTH OR LESS TO THE
NORTHWEST. USING CLIMO SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ANYWHERE FROM 13-16:1
YIELDED STORM TOTAL SNOW 8-10 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND 6-8
ESSEX/CALEDONIA/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON/EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES VT.
THIS IS AN UPTICK OVER PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AND WARRANTS A
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THOSE COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE 06-12Z
THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING WEST TO EAST. SNOW  TO HANG ON LONGEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATES UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE PICTURE AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION HOWEVER...AND THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MAY
GENERATE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS RETURN BY SATURDAY HOWEVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A FEW
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO
SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS AT KMSS WITH GUSTS 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. REST OF SITES
WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ004-007-008-010>012-018-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/SLW





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250918
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
418 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT, AND TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
TODAY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY... FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR TERM UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM CANADA TO MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
PASSED BY TO WEST WITH SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREATLAKES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL
THROUGH THE AREA AND IS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

NEAR TERM FORECAST FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO WRAP UP WIND ADVISORY IN
NORTHERN NY WITH NOT NEARLY AS WARM TEMPERATURES AS PREVIOUS DAYS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING A BIT IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING TO NORTH. PEAK WINDS OF LOW LEVEL JET 50 PLUS KNOTS
ABOVE 925 MB HAVE MOVED ALONG ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT SURFACE OBS
STILL COMING IN WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 KTS RANGE AS OF 08Z. WILL
CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z FORECAST UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND THATS ABOUT AS WARM AS THEY WILL GET.
SURFACE WINDS FORECAST TO KEEP SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, BUT STILL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING DURING THE DAY TO NEAR 0C
BY 00Z WHICH WOULD SUPPORT READINGS IN THE 40S. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE APPROACHING COASTAL
LOW TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS MID DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME NICELY INTO AGREEMENT
WITH VERY LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
500 MB ROUNDS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID
SOUTH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS ITS TURN UP THE COAST. SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP OFF TEH CAROLINAS AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO 40N LATITUDE AT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME 00Z THURS. GFS TAKES IT RIGHT OVER 40N/70W BENCHMARK,
WHILE ECMWF AND NAM JUST A LITTLE ON THE INSIDE. ALSO NOT SEEING THE
THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT THE MODELS HAD IN EARLIER RUNS.

TRACK OF THE LOW PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COLD AIR TO SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL SNOW, HOWEVER AT ONSET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SURFACE
TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PEAK SNOWFALL FROM
ABOUT 21Z WED THROUGH 06Z THURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KVSF ALIGNS MAX
RH AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MIDDLE OF FAVORED -12 TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH ZONE FROM 20Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW VERY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF GRADIENTS AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE THE QPF. CAME UP WITH A
STORM TOTAL QPF OF .50 TO .75 INCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. .25 INCH FROM NEWPORT VT THROUGH SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, AND A TENTH OR LESS TO THE
NORTHWEST. USING CLIMO SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ANYWHERE FROM 13-16:1
YIELDED STORM TOTAL SNOW 8-10 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND 6-8
ESSEX/CALEDONIA/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON/EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES VT.
THIS IS AN UPTICK OVER PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AND WARRANTS A
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THOSE COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE 06-12Z
THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING WEST TO EAST. SNOW  TO HANG ON LONGEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATES UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE PICTURE AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION HOWEVER...AND THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MAY
GENERATE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS RETURN BY SATURDAY HOWEVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A FEW
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO
SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS AT KMSS WITH GUSTS 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. REST OF SITES
WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ004-007-008-010>012-018-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250911
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT, AND TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
TODAY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY... FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR TERM UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM CANADA TO MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
PASSED BY TO WEST WITH SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREATLAKES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL
THROUGH THE AREA AND IS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

NEAR TERM FORECAST FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO WRAP UP WIND ADVISORY IN
NORTHERN NY WITH NOT NEARLY AS WARM TEMPERATURES AS PREVIOUS DAYS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING A BIT IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING TO NORTH. PEAK WINDS OF LOW LEVEL JET 50 PLUS KNOTS
ABOVE 925 MB HAVE MOVED ALONG ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT SURFACE OBS
STILL COMING IN WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 KTS RANGE AS OF 08Z. WILL
CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z FORECAST UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND THATS ABOUT AS WARM AS THEY WILL GET.
SURFACE WINDS FORECAST TO KEEP SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, BUT STILL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING DURING THE DAY TO NEAR 0C
BY 00Z WHICH WOULD SUPPORT READINGS IN THE 40S. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE APPROACHING COASTAL
LOW TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS MID DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME NICELY INTO AGREEMENT
WITH VERY LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
500 MB ROUNDS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID
SOUTH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS ITS TURN UP THE COAST. SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP OFF TEH CAROLINAS AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO 40N LATITUDE AT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME 00Z THURS. GFS TAKES IT RIGHT OVER 40N/70W BENCHMARK,
WHILE ECMWF AND NAM JUST A LITTLE ON THE INSIDE. ALSO NOT SEEING THE
THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT THE MODELS HAD IN EARLIER RUNS.

TRACK OF THE LOW PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COLD AIR TO SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL SNOW, HOWEVER AT ONSET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SURFACE
TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PEAK SNOWFALL FROM
ABOUT 21Z WED THROUGH 06Z THURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KVSF ALIGNS MAX
RH AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MIDDLE OF FAVORED -12 TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH ZONE FROM 20Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW VERY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF GRADIENTS AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE THE QPF. CAME UP WITH A
STORM TOTAL QPF OF .50 TO .75 INCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. .25 INCH FROM NEWPORT VT THROUGH SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, AND A TENTH OR LESS TO THE
NORTHWEST. USING CLIMO SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ANYWHERE FROM 13-16:1
YIELDED STORM TOTAL SNOW 8-10 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND 6-8
ESSEX/CALEDONIA/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON/EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES VT.
THIS IS AN UPTICK OVER PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AND WARRANTS A
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THOSE COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE 06-12Z
THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING WEST TO EAST. SNOW  TO HANG ON LONGEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATES UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS AT KMSS WITH GUSTS 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. REST OF SITES
WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ004-007-008-010>012-018-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/SLW
MARINE...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250911
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT, AND TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
TODAY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY... FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR TERM UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM CANADA TO MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
PASSED BY TO WEST WITH SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREATLAKES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL
THROUGH THE AREA AND IS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

NEAR TERM FORECAST FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO WRAP UP WIND ADVISORY IN
NORTHERN NY WITH NOT NEARLY AS WARM TEMPERATURES AS PREVIOUS DAYS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING A BIT IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING TO NORTH. PEAK WINDS OF LOW LEVEL JET 50 PLUS KNOTS
ABOVE 925 MB HAVE MOVED ALONG ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT SURFACE OBS
STILL COMING IN WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 KTS RANGE AS OF 08Z. WILL
CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z FORECAST UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND THATS ABOUT AS WARM AS THEY WILL GET.
SURFACE WINDS FORECAST TO KEEP SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, BUT STILL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING DURING THE DAY TO NEAR 0C
BY 00Z WHICH WOULD SUPPORT READINGS IN THE 40S. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE APPROACHING COASTAL
LOW TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS MID DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME NICELY INTO AGREEMENT
WITH VERY LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
500 MB ROUNDS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID
SOUTH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS ITS TURN UP THE COAST. SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP OFF TEH CAROLINAS AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO 40N LATITUDE AT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME 00Z THURS. GFS TAKES IT RIGHT OVER 40N/70W BENCHMARK,
WHILE ECMWF AND NAM JUST A LITTLE ON THE INSIDE. ALSO NOT SEEING THE
THE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT THE MODELS HAD IN EARLIER RUNS.

TRACK OF THE LOW PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COLD AIR TO SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL SNOW, HOWEVER AT ONSET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SURFACE
TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PEAK SNOWFALL FROM
ABOUT 21Z WED THROUGH 06Z THURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KVSF ALIGNS MAX
RH AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MIDDLE OF FAVORED -12 TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH ZONE FROM 20Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW VERY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF GRADIENTS AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE THE QPF. CAME UP WITH A
STORM TOTAL QPF OF .50 TO .75 INCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. .25 INCH FROM NEWPORT VT THROUGH SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, AND A TENTH OR LESS TO THE
NORTHWEST. USING CLIMO SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ANYWHERE FROM 13-16:1
YIELDED STORM TOTAL SNOW 8-10 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND 6-8
ESSEX/CALEDONIA/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON/EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES VT.
THIS IS AN UPTICK OVER PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AND WARRANTS A
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THOSE COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE 06-12Z
THURSDAY WITH SNOW ENDING WEST TO EAST. SNOW  TO HANG ON LONGEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATES UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS AT KMSS WITH GUSTS 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. REST OF SITES
WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ004-007-008-010>012-018-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/SLW
MARINE...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250612
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1224 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST TRACKING ALONG WELL WITH
SHOWERS DISSIPATING IN EASTERN VERMONT AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUING
IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUSTANINED
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN VERMONT, SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND
CURRENT POP TRENDS DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. WILL BE A WARM NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S AND NOT MUCH COOLING WITH THE
WARM SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS AT KMSS WITH GUSTS 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. REST OF SITES
WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/SLW
MARINE...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250612
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1224 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST TRACKING ALONG WELL WITH
SHOWERS DISSIPATING IN EASTERN VERMONT AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUING
IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUSTANINED
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN VERMONT, SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND
CURRENT POP TRENDS DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. WILL BE A WARM NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S AND NOT MUCH COOLING WITH THE
WARM SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS AT KMSS WITH GUSTS 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. REST OF SITES
WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/SLW
MARINE...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1227 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1224 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST TRACKING ALONG WELL WITH
SHOWERS DISSIPATING IN EASTERN VERMONT AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUING
IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUSTANINED
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN VERMONT, SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND
CURRENT POP TRENDS DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. WILL BE A WARM NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S AND NOT MUCH COOLING WITH THE
WARM SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
IMPACT IS STRONG SSW WINDS BECOMING SW DURING THIS EVENING WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA THRU
03Z AND REMAINING BRISK/STRONG OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUAL DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY.

GREATEST WINDS IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 919 PM EST MONDAY... THE KCXX RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS
BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
CONSIDERABLY AROUND THE LINE AND AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH THIS
UPDATE. CURRENTLY HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWN AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. EXPECT THAT LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GREENS BUT IT WILL STILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT AS THE SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO RAMP UP AND
ALREADY HAVE OBSERVATIONS OF GUSTS TO 44 KNOTS AT KMSS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER EXPECT WINDS
AND GUSTS TO CONTINUE TO PICK UP OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
IMPACT IS STRONG SSW WINDS BECOMING SW DURING THIS EVENING WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA THRU
03Z AND REMAINING BRISK/STRONG OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUAL DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY.

GREATEST WINDS IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 919 PM EST MONDAY... THE KCXX RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS
BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
CONSIDERABLY AROUND THE LINE AND AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH THIS
UPDATE. CURRENTLY HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWN AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. EXPECT THAT LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GREENS BUT IT WILL STILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT AS THE SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO RAMP UP AND
ALREADY HAVE OBSERVATIONS OF GUSTS TO 44 KNOTS AT KMSS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER EXPECT WINDS
AND GUSTS TO CONTINUE TO PICK UP OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
IMPACT IS STRONG SSW WINDS BECOMING SW DURING THIS EVENING WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA THRU
03Z AND REMAINING BRISK/STRONG OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUAL DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY.

GREATEST WINDS IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 250011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
15Z TUESDAY. THE WINDS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ARE STILL
GUSTING TO 35-45 AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 STILL BLOWING
SOUTH WEST AT 60-70 KTS EXPECT SOME OF THE GUSTS TO BE ABLE TO
CONTINUE MIXING DOWN WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE RAP SHOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS
THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO GUSTS 45-50
KNOTS WILL BE EXPECTED. CONCERNING THE ESTF UPDATE THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM AS GUIDANCE DIDN`T CAPTURE HOW MIXED TODAY WOULD BECOME
AND WAS COOLING THE AREA ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES TO MUCH.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH
BROAD REGION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST
OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
HAVE PROMOTED GOOD MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND
MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
IMPACT IS STRONG SSW WINDS BECOMING SW DURING THIS EVENING WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA THRU
03Z AND REMAINING BRISK/STRONG OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUAL DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY.

GREATEST WINDS IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
15Z TUESDAY. THE WINDS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ARE STILL
GUSTING TO 35-45 AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 STILL BLOWING
SOUTH WEST AT 60-70 KTS EXPECT SOME OF THE GUSTS TO BE ABLE TO
CONTINUE MIXING DOWN WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE RAP SHOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS
THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO GUSTS 45-50
KNOTS WILL BE EXPECTED. CONCERNING THE ESTF UPDATE THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM AS GUIDANCE DIDN`T CAPTURE HOW MIXED TODAY WOULD BECOME
AND WAS COOLING THE AREA ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES TO MUCH.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH
BROAD REGION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST
OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
HAVE PROMOTED GOOD MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND
MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
IMPACT IS STRONG SSW WINDS BECOMING SW DURING THIS EVENING WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA THRU
03Z AND REMAINING BRISK/STRONG OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUAL DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY.

GREATEST WINDS IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
15Z TUESDAY. THE WINDS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ARE STILL
GUSTING TO 35-45 AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 STILL BLOWING
SOUTH WEST AT 60-70 KTS EXPECT SOME OF THE GUSTS TO BE ABLE TO
CONTINUE MIXING DOWN WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE RAP SHOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS
THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO GUSTS 45-50
KNOTS WILL BE EXPECTED. CONCERNING THE ESTF UPDATE THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM AS GUIDANCE DIDN`T CAPTURE HOW MIXED TODAY WOULD BECOME
AND WAS COOLING THE AREA ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES TO MUCH.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH
BROAD REGION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST
OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
HAVE PROMOTED GOOD MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND
MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL/BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
15Z TUESDAY. THE WINDS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ARE STILL
GUSTING TO 35-45 AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 STILL BLOWING
SOUTH WEST AT 60-70 KTS EXPECT SOME OF THE GUSTS TO BE ABLE TO
CONTINUE MIXING DOWN WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE RAP SHOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS
THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO GUSTS 45-50
KNOTS WILL BE EXPECTED. CONCERNING THE ESTF UPDATE THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM AS GUIDANCE DIDN`T CAPTURE HOW MIXED TODAY WOULD BECOME
AND WAS COOLING THE AREA ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES TO MUCH.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH
BROAD REGION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST
OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
HAVE PROMOTED GOOD MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND
MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL/BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH BROAD REGION
OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE PROMOTED GOOD
MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND
MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH BROAD REGION
OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE PROMOTED GOOD
MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT
REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND
MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242029
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.
GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH BROAD REGION OF STRONG
WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE PROMOTED GOOD
MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS FEATURE
WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE
FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 45-55
MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 03-09Z TONIGHT...AND
GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT REMAINING BELOW
40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
(AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND MAY
YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F AREAWIDE WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL
SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET
DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20
MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH
AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PARAMOUNT...OF
COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND OFFERS EXACTLY
ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE
12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242029
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.
GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH BROAD REGION OF STRONG
WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE PROMOTED GOOD
MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED.

CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS FEATURE
WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE
FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 45-55
MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 03-09Z TONIGHT...AND
GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO.

FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT REMAINING BELOW
40 MPH.

GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
(AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND MAY
YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F AREAWIDE WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL
SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET
DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20
MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH
AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PARAMOUNT...OF
COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND OFFERS EXACTLY
ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE
12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY GOOD LOW-
LEVEL MIXING OWING TO STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE MID-UPR 60S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WILL BE RECORD/NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (RECORD IS 65F
AT BTV TODAY...SET IN 1999 AND 1931). CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY FOR LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY 40-45F AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY GOOD LOW-
LEVEL MIXING OWING TO STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE MID-UPR 60S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WILL BE RECORD/NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (RECORD IS 65F
AT BTV TODAY...SET IN 1999 AND 1931). CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY FOR LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY 40-45F AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A
SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...SISSON





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY GOOD LOW-
LEVEL MIXING OWING TO STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE MID-UPR 60S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WILL BE RECORD/NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (RECORD IS 65F
AT BTV TODAY...SET IN 1999 AND 1931). CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE
BDNRY TONIGHT...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
FOR LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 40-45F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY GOOD LOW-
LEVEL MIXING OWING TO STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE MID-UPR 60S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WILL BE RECORD/NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (RECORD IS 65F
AT BTV TODAY...SET IN 1999 AND 1931). CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE
BDNRY TONIGHT...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
FOR LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 40-45F
AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON





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