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000
FXUS61 KBTV 301113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

JUST SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING. VARIABLE AMOUNTS
OF MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION BUT STILL EXPECTING
PARTIAL SUNSHINE TODAY.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALL NIGHT AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE WARM LAKE WATERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THEY MAY
CLIP NW VT THIS EVENING SO KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TODAY FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/LG CAPE TO NEAR 1000 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY PER THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR AND WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST.

850 TEMPS AROUND 9C SO HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

JUST SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING. VARIABLE AMOUNTS
OF MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION BUT STILL EXPECTING
PARTIAL SUNSHINE TODAY.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALL NIGHT AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE WARM LAKE WATERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THEY MAY
CLIP NW VT THIS EVENING SO KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TODAY FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/LG CAPE TO NEAR 1000 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY PER THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR AND WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST.

850 TEMPS AROUND 9C SO HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 300842
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 442 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALL NIGHT AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE WARM LAKE WATERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THEY MAY
CLIP NW VT THIS EVENING SO KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TODAY FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/LG CAPE TO NEAR 1000 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY PER THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR AND WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST.

850 TEMPS AROUND 9C SO HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS











000
FXUS61 KBTV 300842
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 442 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALL NIGHT AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE WARM LAKE WATERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THEY MAY
CLIP NW VT THIS EVENING SO KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TODAY FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/LG CAPE TO NEAR 1000 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY PER THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR AND WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST.

850 TEMPS AROUND 9C SO HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS










000
FXUS61 KBTV 300759
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 149 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE
SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS PRODUCING PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE AS WELL.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY 10-12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 300759
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 149 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE
SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS PRODUCING PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE AS WELL.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY 10-12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 300549
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 149 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE
SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS PRODUCING PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE AS WELL.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY 10-12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS











000
FXUS61 KBTV 300549
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 149 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE
SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS PRODUCING PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE AS WELL.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY 10-12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS










000
FXUS61 KBTV 300534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. LOOKING UPSTREAM
     MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN
ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48
HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z. BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK
REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 10-12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 300534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. LOOKING UPSTREAM
     MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN
ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48
HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z. BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK
REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 10-12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 300238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. LOOKING UPSTREAM
...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN
ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48
HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z. BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK
REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 10-12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST. CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT LARGER CLOUD SHIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH EVENTUAL
CLEARING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...WHICH SHOULD THEN BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK AND KMPV THROUGH 12Z.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT KBTV AND KRUT DURING THIS
TIME. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 292349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST. CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT LARGER CLOUD SHIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH EVENTUAL
CLEARING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...WHICH SHOULD THEN BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK AND KMPV THROUGH 12Z.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT KBTV AND KRUT DURING THIS
TIME. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 292340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 292340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER A DRY CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
JAMES BAY REGION. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES THOUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT...AND
LOW/MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER A DRY CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
JAMES BAY REGION. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES THOUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT...AND
LOW/MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 291916
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 291916
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 291718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 291718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 291645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE BRINGING CLEARING THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW









000
FXUS61 KBTV 291425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE BRINGING CLEARING THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 731 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE BRINGING CLEARING THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW









000
FXUS61 KBTV 291132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 731 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE BRINGING CLEARING THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 290853
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
453 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN HAS PRIMARILY ENDED ACROSS FORECAST
AREA WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK ACROSS NRN NY. A WIDE RANGE OF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. VFR AT KPBG/KMSS BUT
MVFR AT KBTV/KRUT WITH IFR FOR KMPV/KSLK DUE TO LOW CLDS/FOG AS
WINDS ARE DECOUPLING FM ERLR.

AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW










000
FXUS61 KBTV 290853
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
453 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN HAS PRIMARILY ENDED ACROSS FORECAST
AREA WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK ACROSS NRN NY. A WIDE RANGE OF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. VFR AT KPBG/KMSS BUT
MVFR AT KBTV/KRUT WITH IFR FOR KMPV/KSLK DUE TO LOW CLDS/FOG AS
WINDS ARE DECOUPLING FM ERLR.

AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW











000
FXUS61 KBTV 290632
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
232 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DRYING UP
WITH CLEARING SKIES ALREADING INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AROUND
BY DAY BREAK. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOT
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN HAS PRIMARILY ENDED ACROSS FORECAST
AREA WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK ACROSS NRN NY. A WIDE RANGE OF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. VFR AT KPBG/KMSS BUT
MVFR AT KBTV/KRUT WITH IFR FOR KMPV/KSLK DUE TO LOW CLDS/FOG AS
WINDS ARE DECOUPLING FM ERLR.

AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DRYING UP
WITH CLEARING SKIES ALREADING INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AROUND
BY DAY BREAK. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOT
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 290515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DRYING UP
WITH CLEARING SKIES ALREADING INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AROUND
BY DAY BREAK. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOT
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 290239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAS LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAS LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 282327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 282327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 282254
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 282254
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER











000
FXUS61 KBTV 282133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
533 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE SFC LOW TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS
AFTN THE SFC LOW JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED
OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE
WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED
ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR
STORMS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL
BECOME TRRN DRIVEN BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE
EASTERN DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER















000
FXUS61 KBTV 282133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
533 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE SFC LOW TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS
AFTN THE SFC LOW JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED
OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE
WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED
ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR
STORMS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL
BECOME TRRN DRIVEN BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE
EASTERN DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER














000
FXUS61 KBTV 281959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...










000
FXUS61 KBTV 281959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...











000
FXUS61 KBTV 281902
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON










000
FXUS61 KBTV 281426
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS
AND INCREASE 6HR QPF GRIDS ACRS CENTRAL VT AND LWR CT RIVER
VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED 1 HR QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.30 AND 0.60"
ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIFTING ACRS
CENTRAL VT ATTM. RUTLAND RECEIVED 0.44"...WITH NORTH HARTLAND
LAKE HADS REPORTING A 3 HR TOTAL OF 1.16 INCHES. THIS BAND WL CONT
TO MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THRU 18Z
TODAY. ALSO...A BATCH OF MODERATE RAIN WL CONT ACRS NORTHERN
NY...INCLUDING THE SLV WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN VT ZNS LATE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WL PROVIDE REGION WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN
ACTION...BUT AS POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACRS
CENTRAL NY APPROACHES THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS WL REDEVELOP BY NOON TODAY. THESE STORMS WL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WL
BE LIKELY. LATEST HRRR MODELS SHOWS THIS IDEA VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0 TO 6
KM SHEAR...TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A
TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WL WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND RAINFALL RATES VERY CAREFULLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...
TEMPS WL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE L60S
DACKS TO M70S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY
FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281426
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS
AND INCREASE 6HR QPF GRIDS ACRS CENTRAL VT AND LWR CT RIVER
VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED 1 HR QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.30 AND 0.60"
ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIFTING ACRS
CENTRAL VT ATTM. RUTLAND RECEIVED 0.44"...WITH NORTH HARTLAND
LAKE HADS REPORTING A 3 HR TOTAL OF 1.16 INCHES. THIS BAND WL CONT
TO MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THRU 18Z
TODAY. ALSO...A BATCH OF MODERATE RAIN WL CONT ACRS NORTHERN
NY...INCLUDING THE SLV WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN VT ZNS LATE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WL PROVIDE REGION WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN
ACTION...BUT AS POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACRS
CENTRAL NY APPROACHES THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS WL REDEVELOP BY NOON TODAY. THESE STORMS WL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WL
BE LIKELY. LATEST HRRR MODELS SHOWS THIS IDEA VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0 TO 6
KM SHEAR...TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A
TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WL WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND RAINFALL RATES VERY CAREFULLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...
TEMPS WL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE L60S
DACKS TO M70S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY
FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON










000
FXUS61 KBTV 281145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281105
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
705 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON












000
FXUS61 KBTV 281105
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
705 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON













000
FXUS61 KBTV 280822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN
AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE
THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT
BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES.
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
`DACKS AND EAST-FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER
AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A
HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO
1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON












000
FXUS61 KBTV 280822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN
AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE
THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT
BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES.
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
`DACKS AND EAST-FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER
AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A
HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO
1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON













000
FXUS61 KBTV 280815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL
PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES
SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT
BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES.
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
`DACKS AND EAST-FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER
AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A
HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO
1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON











000
FXUS61 KBTV 280614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 280513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 280513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON










000
FXUS61 KBTV 280201
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1001 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE NOTICEABLY TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE
LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM
COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 280201
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1001 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE NOTICEABLY TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE
LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM
COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO JUST
INDICATE A BIT MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICKING UP FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TOWARD MORNING AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO JUST
INDICATE A BIT MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICKING UP FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TOWARD MORNING AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 272251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO JUST
INDICATE A BIT MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICKING UP FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TOWARD MORNING AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 272251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO JUST
INDICATE A BIT MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICKING UP FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TOWARD MORNING AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 271942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERN
FLW ALOFT WL QUICKLY EXIT OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA BY 03Z...AND
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE DISSIPATING. EXPECTING PULSE
LIKE STORMS WITH LIMITED ORGANIZATION TO CONT THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. LAPS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG. THIS
WL PRODUCE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLATED
SMALL HAIL...AND VERY LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. WL MENTION CHC POPS
FOR NORTHERN VT THRU 02Z THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER TO SCHC INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO...PER POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY ACRS OUR CENTRAL ZNS...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED VORTS. MEANWHILE...TWD 12Z MONDAY MOISTURE AND ENERGY
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WL BE APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN CWA. WL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY AFT 09Z MONDAY...TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DWPTS...THINKING MAINLY 50S MTNS
TO 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LVLL UPSLOPE FLW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LVLL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 271942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERN
FLW ALOFT WL QUICKLY EXIT OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA BY 03Z...AND
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE DISSIPATING. EXPECTING PULSE
LIKE STORMS WITH LIMITED ORGANIZATION TO CONT THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. LAPS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG. THIS
WL PRODUCE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLATED
SMALL HAIL...AND VERY LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. WL MENTION CHC POPS
FOR NORTHERN VT THRU 02Z THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER TO SCHC INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO...PER POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY ACRS OUR CENTRAL ZNS...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED VORTS. MEANWHILE...TWD 12Z MONDAY MOISTURE AND ENERGY
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WL BE APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN CWA. WL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY AFT 09Z MONDAY...TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DWPTS...THINKING MAINLY 50S MTNS
TO 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LVLL UPSLOPE FLW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LVLL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271919
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271919
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271607
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO









000
FXUS61 KBTV 271607
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271607
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271607
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO









000
FXUS61 KBTV 271421
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1021 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT SUNDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF MODERATE
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT
ATTM. HAVE UPDATED TO TRIM BACK POPS ACRS THE CPV/DACKS TO CHC.
CONTINUED TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS FOR PRECIP ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...BUT THIS WL CLR OUR CWA BY 16Z TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
RANGED BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH 0.30
FALLING AT BTV THRU 10 AM. NEXT FCST CHALLENGE WL BE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN/EVENING. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS A FEW
BREAKS ACRS THE SLV...WHICH WL SPREAD EAST INTO THE CPV/VT BY
EARLY THIS AFTN...ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND S/W ENERGY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK 5H VORT JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHICH WL PASS ALONG OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA BTWN 17Z-
22Z TODAY. THINKING THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SOME SFC
HEATING WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN.
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND ULVL FORCING WL KEEP POPS IN THE 30 TO
40% RANGE THIS AFTN. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACRS THE
CPV...FROM SFC HEATING...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
LATEST HRRR AND BTV4KM HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 TO
35 KNOTS. THESE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT PULSE LIKE STORMS...WITH NO REAL
ORGANIZATION. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS MORNING WL SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S (MTNS) TO LOWER 80S (SLV/CPV) BY EARLY
THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CAN
DEVELOP.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT (SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN
VERMONT THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN
RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING.

FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK
HEIGHT RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE SUGGESTED AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD
THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER
INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN
THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH
AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).

HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO












000
FXUS61 KBTV 271421
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1021 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT SUNDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF MODERATE
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT
ATTM. HAVE UPDATED TO TRIM BACK POPS ACRS THE CPV/DACKS TO CHC.
CONTINUED TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS FOR PRECIP ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...BUT THIS WL CLR OUR CWA BY 16Z TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
RANGED BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH 0.30
FALLING AT BTV THRU 10 AM. NEXT FCST CHALLENGE WL BE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN/EVENING. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS A FEW
BREAKS ACRS THE SLV...WHICH WL SPREAD EAST INTO THE CPV/VT BY
EARLY THIS AFTN...ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND S/W ENERGY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK 5H VORT JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHICH WL PASS ALONG OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA BTWN 17Z-
22Z TODAY. THINKING THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SOME SFC
HEATING WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN.
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND ULVL FORCING WL KEEP POPS IN THE 30 TO
40% RANGE THIS AFTN. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACRS THE
CPV...FROM SFC HEATING...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
LATEST HRRR AND BTV4KM HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 TO
35 KNOTS. THESE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT PULSE LIKE STORMS...WITH NO REAL
ORGANIZATION. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS MORNING WL SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S (MTNS) TO LOWER 80S (SLV/CPV) BY EARLY
THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CAN
DEVELOP.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT (SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN
VERMONT THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN
RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING.

FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK
HEIGHT RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE SUGGESTED AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD
THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER
INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN
THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH
AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).

HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO













000
FXUS61 KBTV 271149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT SUNDAY...PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE TO
ADJUST POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE NORTHERN END OF
THIS LINE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING A BIT AS IT APPROACHES THE NY
SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. STRONGEST PORTION OF THESE STORMS
EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF LOWVILLE SOUTH TO BGM...AND EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO NEAR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SEE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT RECENTLY ISSUED. OTHERWISE HAVE BLENDED IN
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN WITH GRIDDED FORECAST ELEMENTS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT (SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN
VERMONT THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN
RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING.

FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK
HEIGHT RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE SUGGESTED AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD
THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER
INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN
THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH
AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).

HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO









000
FXUS61 KBTV 271149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT SUNDAY...PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE TO
ADJUST POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE NORTHERN END OF
THIS LINE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING A BIT AS IT APPROACHES THE NY
SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. STRONGEST PORTION OF THESE STORMS
EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF LOWVILLE SOUTH TO BGM...AND EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO NEAR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SEE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT RECENTLY ISSUED. OTHERWISE HAVE BLENDED IN
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN WITH GRIDDED FORECAST ELEMENTS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT (SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN
VERMONT THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN
RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING.

FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK
HEIGHT RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE SUGGESTED AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD
THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER
INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN
THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH
AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).

HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO








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