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000
FXUS61 KBTV 030546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1246 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT PER
RECENT IR IMAGERY AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IS ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
EASE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOTED AT 05Z FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...WITH A FEW SPOTS 5-10MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20
MPH IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS SUBSIDE AS WELL
AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD ACROSS NY INTO VT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO LOWS ZERO TO -5F LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 8 ABOVE
ELSEWHERE. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID-
DAY HOURS TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURNING SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-30 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES BETWEEN 12-18Z...FOLLOWED BY A MVFR LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 20Z. THIS
SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AFFECTING KPBG/KBTV AND KRUT STARTING AROUND 22Z THEN
INTO CENTRAL VT AND KMPV AROUND 23Z. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS 21Z-05Z AT KSLK/KMSS AND 00Z-04Z AT
KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND KMPV.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z BETWEEN
2-4KFT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS CREATE STABILITY AND MINIMIZE WIND GUSTS. BUT ANY BREAKS
IN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 04Z, WILL
LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS AS MIXING OCCURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 030546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1246 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT PER
RECENT IR IMAGERY AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IS ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
EASE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOTED AT 05Z FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...WITH A FEW SPOTS 5-10MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20
MPH IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS SUBSIDE AS WELL
AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD ACROSS NY INTO VT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO LOWS ZERO TO -5F LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 8 ABOVE
ELSEWHERE. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID-
DAY HOURS TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURNING SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-30 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES BETWEEN 12-18Z...FOLLOWED BY A MVFR LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 20Z. THIS
SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AFFECTING KPBG/KBTV AND KRUT STARTING AROUND 22Z THEN
INTO CENTRAL VT AND KMPV AROUND 23Z. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS 21Z-05Z AT KSLK/KMSS AND 00Z-04Z AT
KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND KMPV.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z BETWEEN
2-4KFT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS CREATE STABILITY AND MINIMIZE WIND GUSTS. BUT ANY BREAKS
IN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 04Z, WILL
LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS AS MIXING OCCURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1246 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT PER
RECENT IR IMAGERY AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IS ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
EASE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOTED AT 05Z FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...WITH A FEW SPOTS 5-10MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20
MPH IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS SUBSIDE AS WELL
AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD ACROSS NY INTO VT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO LOWS ZERO TO -5F LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 8 ABOVE
ELSEWHERE. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID-
DAY HOURS TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURNING SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-30 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES BETWEEN 12-18Z...FOLLOWED BY A MVFR LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 20Z. THIS
SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AFFECTING KPBG/KBTV AND KRUT STARTING AROUND 22Z THEN
INTO CENTRAL VT AND KMPV AROUND 23Z. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS 21Z-05Z AT KSLK/KMSS AND 00Z-04Z AT
KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND KMPV.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z BETWEEN
2-4KFT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS CREATE STABILITY AND MINIMIZE WIND GUSTS. BUT ANY BREAKS
IN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 04Z, WILL
LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS AS MIXING OCCURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM





000
FXUS61 KBTV 030546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1246 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT PER
RECENT IR IMAGERY AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IS ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
EASE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOTED AT 05Z FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...WITH A FEW SPOTS 5-10MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20
MPH IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS SUBSIDE AS WELL
AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD ACROSS NY INTO VT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO LOWS ZERO TO -5F LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 8 ABOVE
ELSEWHERE. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID-
DAY HOURS TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURNING SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-30 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES BETWEEN 12-18Z...FOLLOWED BY A MVFR LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 20Z. THIS
SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AFFECTING KPBG/KBTV AND KRUT STARTING AROUND 22Z THEN
INTO CENTRAL VT AND KMPV AROUND 23Z. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS 21Z-05Z AT KSLK/KMSS AND 00Z-04Z AT
KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND KMPV.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z BETWEEN
2-4KFT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS CREATE STABILITY AND MINIMIZE WIND GUSTS. BUT ANY BREAKS
IN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 04Z, WILL
LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS AS MIXING OCCURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1221 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT PER
RECENT IR IMAGERY AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IS ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
EASE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOTED AT 05Z FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...WITH A FEW SPOTS 5-10MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20
MPH IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS SUBSIDE AS WELL
AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD ACROSS NY INTO VT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO LOWS ZERO TO -5F LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 8 ABOVE
ELSEWHERE. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 030256
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030256
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 030256
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030256
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 022347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 647 PM EST MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW
SHOWER/SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. ALSO...EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED,
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS
DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY
(THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE
GUSTY SIDE, AND I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING
AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL
FADE AWAY GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 022347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 647 PM EST MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW
SHOWER/SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. ALSO...EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED,
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS
DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY
(THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE
GUSTY SIDE, AND I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING
AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL
FADE AWAY GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 647 PM EST MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW
SHOWER/SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. ALSO...EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED,
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS
DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY
(THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE
GUSTY SIDE, AND I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING
AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL
FADE AWAY GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 647 PM EST MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW
SHOWER/SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. ALSO...EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED,
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS
DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY
(THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE
GUSTY SIDE, AND I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING
AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL
FADE AWAY GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 022329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 022016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 021717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 021717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 021717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST GOING PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO
PLAN AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW IS BREAKING UP, AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW INCREASING BREAKS
IN THE OVERCASE. STILL A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW, BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST GOING PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO
PLAN AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW IS BREAKING UP, AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW INCREASING BREAKS
IN THE OVERCASE. STILL A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW, BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 021218
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021218
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021218
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 021137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 021137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 021137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1223 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED
SCATTERED NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF
SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV)
TONIGHT TURN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY
AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1223 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED
SCATTERED NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF
SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV)
TONIGHT TURN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY
AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
937 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 936 PM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM
NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST, AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST.
ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE REGION. SNOW WILL
TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY
WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 020237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
937 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 936 PM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM
NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST, AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST.
ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE REGION. SNOW WILL
TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY
WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
632 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
632 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 012332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
632 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 012332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
632 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
550 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
550 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
550 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 012250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
550 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 012024
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
324 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012024
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
324 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734 CCA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734 CCA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011358
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
858 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 858 AM EST SUNDAY...WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS IDEA.
HOWEVER...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011358
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
858 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 858 AM EST SUNDAY...WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS IDEA.
HOWEVER...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011358
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
858 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 858 AM EST SUNDAY...WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS IDEA.
HOWEVER...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011358
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
858 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 858 AM EST SUNDAY...WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS IDEA.
HOWEVER...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
639 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 624 AM EST SUNDAY...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FOR 630 UPDATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. QPF TOTALS FOR OUR AREA WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO
SHADOWING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA...STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 7PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
639 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 624 AM EST SUNDAY...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FOR 630 UPDATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. QPF TOTALS FOR OUR AREA WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO
SHADOWING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA...STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 7PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 624 AM EST SUNDAY...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FOR 630 UPDATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. QPF TOTALS FOR OUR AREA WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO
SHADOWING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA...STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 7PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 011130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 624 AM EST SUNDAY...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FOR 630 UPDATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. QPF TOTALS FOR OUR AREA WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO
SHADOWING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA...STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 7PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. QPF TOTALS
FOR OUR AREA WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH. EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO SHADOWING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COMING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA...STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. QPF TOTALS
FOR OUR AREA WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH. EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO SHADOWING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COMING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA...STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. QPF TOTALS
FOR OUR AREA WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH. EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO SHADOWING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COMING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA...STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010841
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1205 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER
A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY
ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS MODERATE
NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010841
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1205 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER
A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY
ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS MODERATE
NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010841
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1205 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER
A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY
ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS MODERATE
NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1205 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1205 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1205 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1205 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH
LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR
LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010506
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1206 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1205 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASE IN VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SEE CEILINGS
LOWERING AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17Z-19Z ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GREATEST
IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF
IFR OR LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010506
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1206 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1205 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASE IN VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SEE CEILINGS
LOWERING AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17Z-19Z ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GREATEST
IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF
IFR OR LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010506
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1206 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1205 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASE IN VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SEE CEILINGS
LOWERING AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17Z-19Z ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GREATEST
IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF
IFR OR LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010506
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1206 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1205 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASE IN VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SEE CEILINGS
LOWERING AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17Z-19Z ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GREATEST
IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF
IFR OR LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010212
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
912 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 911 PM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASE IN VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SEE CEILINGS
LOWERING AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17Z-19Z ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GREATEST
IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF
IFR OR LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010212
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
912 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 911 PM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME
-10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASE IN VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SEE CEILINGS
LOWERING AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17Z-19Z ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GREATEST
IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF
IFR OR LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS
MORNING AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH
SOME -10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASE IN VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SEE CEILINGS
LOWERING AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17Z-19Z ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GREATEST
IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF
IFR OR LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS
MORNING AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH
SOME -10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASE IN VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SEE CEILINGS
LOWERING AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17Z-19Z ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GREATEST
IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF
IFR OR LOWER AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282044
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
COMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND MOVING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OF NEW YORK TONIGHT... LOOKING AT RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW IT TO NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY. TOWARDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282044
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
COMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND MOVING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OF NEW YORK TONIGHT... LOOKING AT RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW IT TO NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY. TOWARDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 282044
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
COMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND MOVING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OF NEW YORK TONIGHT... LOOKING AT RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW IT TO NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY. TOWARDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282044
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
COMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND MOVING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OF NEW YORK TONIGHT... LOOKING AT RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW IT TO NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EST SATURDAY...
TUESDAY... NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID 20`S
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM ON TUESDAY.  THE
WARMEST TIME OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NON DIURNAL AS
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AS PERIOD BEGINS AROUND 7-
8PM.

WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
TODAY BUT STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THERMALLY. THE
BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THAT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH
A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PTYPE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT AS ITS CURRENTLY TOO FAR
IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS
BRING THE WARM AIR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONNECTED TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE TWO SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT I OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING POPS AND SURFACE TEMPS. THE GFS IS NO
LONGER SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOMB DEVELOPING WHICH LEADS
TO ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS RUN VERSUS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. FOR
THERMAL PROFILES I OPTED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE
EXTRA VERTICAL LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR A TOP DOWN PTYPE APPROACH.
THIS LEAD TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN TRANSITIONING BY MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO A
WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN THAT FALLS AND MEETS ROADS WHERE GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE AT OR BELOW 32F. EITHER WAY THE NEXT RESULT OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ICING ON THE ROAD SURFACES AND THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK. AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL
BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALOFT GUSTING TO 40-50KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF RUNS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT
850MB APPROACHING 60KTS INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 850MB
WINDS BETWEEN 45-55KTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPE
OF THE GREENS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 AND 700MB EXPECT THAT WOULD RESULT IN SHADOWING OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO TOTAL QPF WOULD BE LOWERED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE GFS DOES A
DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THAT AS OF THE 12Z RUN.

MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HAVE A REAL GOOD SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 40S UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATER THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH THE BETTER SHOT AT NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEAR RUTLAND.  I OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WAS A BIT RESERVED IN HOW FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE THE CURRENT EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD MODERATE HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 RESULT OF THAT COMBINATION WILL BRING COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SO I DIDN`T REMOVE ALL THE POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY TOWARDS INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE NOCTURNAL WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN VERMONT WITH DECENT COOLING EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ACROSS SARANAC LAKE.

FRIDAY...UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. NOT MUCH ELSE TO
DISCUSS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECT ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...AT DAY 7 ONE CAN ONLY PUT SO MUCH STOCK IN THE MODELS AND
SO I JUST WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH DOESN`T CURRENTLY PROJECT A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTED THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STILL
BE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S UNDER SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY. TOWARDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 282026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
COMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND MOVING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OF NEW YORK TONIGHT... LOOKING AT RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW IT TO NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR
THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY. TOWARDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1226 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1226 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURE TRENDS UP A BIT WITH
RESPECT TO REACHING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SOONER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUN UNTIL SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS START
MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY. TOWARDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281713
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1213 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE NOW WARMING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY. HIGHS IN THE
20S FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS REAL GOOD. ONLY TWEAK THIS UPDATE WAS
TO DECREASE SKY COVER OVER THE REGION AS SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY. THUS OPTED
FOR SUNNY WORDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY. TOWARDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281713
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1213 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE NOW WARMING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY. HIGHS IN THE
20S FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS REAL GOOD. ONLY TWEAK THIS UPDATE WAS
TO DECREASE SKY COVER OVER THE REGION AS SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY. THUS OPTED
FOR SUNNY WORDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY. TOWARDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281713
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1213 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE NOW WARMING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY. HIGHS IN THE
20S FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS REAL GOOD. ONLY TWEAK THIS UPDATE WAS
TO DECREASE SKY COVER OVER THE REGION AS SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY. THUS OPTED
FOR SUNNY WORDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY. TOWARDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281713
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1213 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE NOW WARMING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY. HIGHS IN THE
20S FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS REAL GOOD. ONLY TWEAK THIS UPDATE WAS
TO DECREASE SKY COVER OVER THE REGION AS SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY. THUS OPTED
FOR SUNNY WORDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY. TOWARDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
930 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE NOW WARMING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY. HIGHS IN THE
20S FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS REAL GOOD. ONLY TWEAK THIS UPDATE WAS
TO DECREASE SKY COVER OVER THE REGION AS SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY. THUS OPTED
FOR SUNNY WORDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. EXCEPTION IS SLK WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT
WESTERLY EXCEPT SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
930 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE NOW WARMING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY. HIGHS IN THE
20S FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS REAL GOOD. ONLY TWEAK THIS UPDATE WAS
TO DECREASE SKY COVER OVER THE REGION AS SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY. THUS OPTED
FOR SUNNY WORDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. EXCEPTION IS SLK WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT
WESTERLY EXCEPT SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
644 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST SATURDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER. STRONG RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS
THINKING AND GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIP IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. EXCEPTION IS SLK WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
644 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST SATURDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER. STRONG RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS
THINKING AND GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIP IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. EXCEPTION IS SLK WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
644 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST SATURDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER. STRONG RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS
THINKING AND GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIP IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. EXCEPTION IS SLK WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER. STRONG RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS
THINKING AND GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIP IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. EXCEPTION IS SLK WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER. STRONG RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS
THINKING AND GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIP IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. EXCEPTION IS SLK WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 280912
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER. STRONG RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS
THINKING AND GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIP IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL. EXCEPTION IS SLK WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK DURING
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 280912
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER. STRONG RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS
THINKING AND GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIP IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL. EXCEPTION IS SLK WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK DURING
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280903
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
GENERALLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF WARMUP WEDNESDAY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1229 AM EST SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A FEW ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AS OF 900 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORT OF
LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY FLURRY/SHSN ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO
THE LAKE. INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PREDICATED A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA. ALSO RAISED MINS A TAD IN
THE SLV WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD
KEEP READINGS FROM COMPLETELY RADIATING OUT. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE CLOSE OUT
FEBRUARY...BUMPED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOW/MID 20S FOR
SATURDAY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND MID/UPR 20S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN HOURS SUNDAY
AS FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-LEVEL WAA
REGIME COMMENCES ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASES AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THUS...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15 MPH (WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
MPH SUNDAY AFTN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY).

INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE DURING
SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE INBETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIP IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL. EXCEPTION IS SLK WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK DURING
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280903
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
GENERALLY EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF WARMUP WEDNESDAY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1229 AM EST SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A FEW ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AS OF 900 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORT OF
LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY FLURRY/SHSN ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO
THE LAKE. INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PREDICATED A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS IN THIS AREA. ALSO RAISED MINS A TAD IN
THE SLV WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD
KEEP READINGS FROM COMPLETELY RADIATING OUT. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE CLOSE OUT
FEBRUARY...BUMPED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOW/MID 20S FOR
SATURDAY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND MID/UPR 20S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN HOURS SUNDAY
AS FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-LEVEL WAA
REGIME COMMENCES ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASES AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THUS...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15 MPH (WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
MPH SUNDAY AFTN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY).

INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE DURING
SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY
RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE
LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS
DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE
ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE INBETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75
INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH
BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED
PRECIP IN OTHERS.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER
TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL. EXCEPTION IS SLK WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK DURING
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





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