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000
FXUS61 KBTV 162357
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
757 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS.
STILL LOOKING AT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED AS STRONG 1040 MB POLAR HIGH
SETTLES DIRECTLY ATOP THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
BE THE RULE ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AS READINGS BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS FOR MOST SPOTS. A SHORT LIST OF LOWS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING (4/17) ARE LISTED BELOW. WHILE RIVERS AND FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS OUR AREA...WARNINGS REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS...AND PORTIONS OF NRN NY/SLV
WHICH WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NWS STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR RIVERS IN YOUR
SPECIFIC AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE
FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON
TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED
SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE
30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RUNOFF FROM YESTERDAY`S
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT CONTINUES TO LESSEN WITH TIME TODAY. WITH
NO NEW FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS
THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD AND PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
WATERWAYS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO..OR ONLINE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY...APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND
KMSS (1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 161940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET AND VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED AS
STRONG 1040 MB POLAR HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ATOP THE REGION. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ALONG WITH IDEAL RADATIONAL
COOLING AS READINGS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR MOST SPOTS. A
SHORT LIST OF LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING (4/17) ARE LISTED BELOW.
WHILE RIVERS AND FLOODING CONCERNS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS OUR
AREA...WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS...AND
PORTIONS OF NRN NY/SLV WHICH WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS
FOR RIVERS IN YOUR SPECIFIC AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE
FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON
TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED
SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE
30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH NO PCPN THROUGH THE
24-HR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
VT TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AS SKIES TREND CLEAR. EXCEPTION AT KRUT WHERE VALLEY
INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS AT OTHER TERMINALS AFTER
12Z...THOUGH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RUNOFF FROM YESTERDAY`S
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT CONTINUES TO LESSEN WITH TIME TODAY. WITH
NO NEW FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS
THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD AND PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
WATERWAYS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO..OR ONLINE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY...APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND
KMSS (1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 161920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID OPT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED OFF
CURRENT TRENDS OTW EXPECTING SKIES TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY ABATING
AND TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB BY 8/9 PM. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH NO PCPN THROUGH THE
24-HR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
VT TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AS SKIES TREND CLEAR. EXCEPTION AT KRUT WHERE VALLEY
INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS AT OTHER TERMINALS AFTER
12Z...THOUGH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 161725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID OPT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED OFF
CURRENT TRENDS OTW EXPECTING SKIES TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY ABATING
AND TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB BY 8/9 PM. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH NO PCPN THROUGH THE
24-HR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
VT TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AS SKIES TREND CLEAR. EXCEPTION AT KRUT WHERE VALLEY
INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS AT OTHER TERMINALS AFTER
12Z...THOUGH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 161322
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
922 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 921 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC
FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO
OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
BECOMING VFR THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV/RUT/MSS. AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 161137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 733 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEARING CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE
RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER VERMONT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SCENARIO AND TONED BACK ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO JUST THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES PLACE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
BECOMING VFR THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV/RUT/MSS. AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 161133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 733 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEARING CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE
RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER VERMONT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SCENARIO AND TONED BACK ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO JUST THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES PLACE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
SNOW HAS ENDED AT MOST TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MPV AND SLK.
BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN BECOMING
VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS
ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL
RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 160748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...BULK OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS
EXITED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
SNOW HAS ENDED AT MOST TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MPV AND SLK.
BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN BECOMING
VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS
ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL
RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 160541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1254 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT
EXISTS OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. THE SNOW IS MOVING EAST AND WILL BE
COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOT UNTIL ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FALLS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL
AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. QUITE CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY.
THEN CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS
BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS
HIGH SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR
MOST. UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY
AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
SNOW HAS ENDED AT MOST TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MPV AND SLK.
BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN BECOMING
VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK
NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 160454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1254 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1254 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT
EXISTS OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. THE SNOW IS MOVING EAST AND WILL BE
COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOT UNTIL ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FALLS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL
AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE
CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN
CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF VERMONT
THIS EVENING. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH CHANGEOVER
EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV BY 02Z. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
BECOMING VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW
LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...RJS/NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 160255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1055 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD COLD RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL SLOWLY END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ISSUING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
EXCEPT FOR LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHICH WILL SEE CHANGEOVER BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL
NORTHERN AREAS...AND SNOW IS ACCUMULATING. REPORTS RECEIVED TO
THIS POINT ARE GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR TWO...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BEFORE PRECIPITATION QUITS. SNOW
HAS ENDED IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND LOOK FOR IT END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA NOW THROUGH 07Z. HAVE RAISED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECTING
ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...AND 2
TO 5 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES. DESPITE THE
COOLING...RIVERS RUNNING HIGH WITH MANY IN FLOOD. REFER TO LATEST
FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS TO RIVERS IN YOUR LOCAL AREA AND SEE
HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
WELL QUITE THE WEATHER DAY AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CT RIVER BY 6 PM IF NOT SOONER...WITH ANAFRONTAL COLD RAIN/SNOW
LINGERING BY SOME 6-9 HOURS BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION QUITE WELL SHOWING COLDER AIR WORKING
IN ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS
SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RISES ON ALREADY HIGH STREAMS/RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS TO RIVERS IN YOUR LOCAL AREA (SEE
HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW). OTHERWISE...AS P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO A
WET SNOW...SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. NOTHING
TOO EARTH SHATTERING...BUT QUITE THE CHANGE AFTER YESTERDAY`S NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEY
FLOORS AND 1-3 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW POINT TOTALS NEAR
4/5 INCHES AT SUMMIT LEVEL. LOWS BY MORNING UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S ACROSS NRN NY...AND LOWER TO MID 20S VT BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE
CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN
CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF VERMONT
THIS EVENING. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH CHANGEOVER
EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV BY 02Z. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
BECOMING VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW
LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...RJS/NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 160025
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
825 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD COLD RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL SLOWLY END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 810 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ISSUING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WHICH HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
VERMONT...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN WESTERN/NORTHERN VERMONT. COLDER
AIR A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE EAST OF THE GREENS...WHERE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW WILL OCCUR 02-03Z. STILL LOOKING AT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
IN THE VALLEYS WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...QUITE A
CHANGE FROM THE WARMTH OF MONDAY INTO EARLY TODAY. DESPITE THE
COOLING...MANY RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH MANY RIVERS NOW IN
FLOOD. REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS TO RIVERS IN YOUR
LOCAL AREA AND SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WELL QUITE THE WEATHER DAY AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CT RIVER BY 6 PM IF NOT SOONER...WITH ANAFRONTAL COLD RAIN/SNOW
LINGERING BY SOME 6-9 HOURS BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION QUITE WELL SHOWING COLDER AIR WORKING
IN ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS
SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RISES ON ALREADY HIGH STREAMS/RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS TO RIVERS IN YOUR LOCAL AREA (SEE
HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW). OTHERWISE...AS P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO A
WET SNOW...SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. NOTHING
TOO EARTH SHATTERING...BUT QUITE THE CHANGE AFTER YESTERDAY`S NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEY
FLOORS AND 1-3 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW POINT TOTALS NEAR
4/5 INCHES AT SUMMIT LEVEL. LOWS BY MORNING UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S ACROSS NRN NY...AND LOWER TO MID 20S VT BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE
CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN
CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF VERMONT
THIS EVENING. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH CHANGEOVER
EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV BY 02Z. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
BECOMING VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW
LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...RJS/NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 151942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD COLD RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL SLOWLY END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...WELL QUITE THE WEATHER DAY AS WIDESPREAD
FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CT RIVER BY 6 PM IF NOT SOONER...WITH
ANAFRONTAL COLD RAIN/SNOW LINGERING BY SOME 6-9 HOURS BEHIND SFC
BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION QUITE WELL
SHOWING COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES...WHICH WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RISES ON ALREADY HIGH
STREAMS/RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS
TO RIVERS IN YOUR LOCAL AREA (SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW).
OTHERWISE...AS P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO A WET SNOW...SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. NOTHING TOO EARTH
SHATTERING...BUT QUITE THE CHANGE AFTER YESTERDAY`S NEAR RECORD
HIGHS. AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEY FLOORS
AND 1-3 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW POINT TOTALS NEAR 4/5
INCHES AT SUMMIT LEVEL. LOWS BY MORNING UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS NRN NY...AND LOWER TO MID 20S VT BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE
CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN
CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CURRENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH VT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG THE FRONT EXPECT RAPID WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHWEST AND WIND GUSTS 25-30KTS. MOD TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE FRONT LEAVES THE
AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT KMSS NOW AND
AND REACHING KMPV BY 00Z.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT THEN IFR TO MVFR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. SNOW TAPERS OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY SOME VCSH NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCT CONDITIONS 16-18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW
LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 151828
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
228 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 208 PM EDT TUESDAY...DROPPED WIND ADVSY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS OF THE NOONTIME HOUR AS STEADIER RAINFALL HAS ARRIVED IN
THE VALLEY AND INHIBITED MIXING MORE THOROUGHLY. KCXX VWP VALUES
STILL RUNNING FROM 50-60KTS IN THE 2-3 KFT LAYER...BUT THIS SHOULD
REMAIN ALOFT. WATCHING COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS HOUR...AND REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY THE 1-2 0`CLOCK HOUR...AND THEN
EASTWARD INTO REMAINDER OF VT THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO WATCHING INTERESTING CONVECTIVE FINELINE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WHICH IS PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT
ENTERS OUR WESTERN VT COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA AND MONITOR FUTURE
STATEMENTS FROM THE NWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUITE BUSY HERE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS LARGER STREAMS
AND RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. IN SHORT...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS NEEDED AS
OF MID-MORNING...MAINLY TO MATCH CURRENT POSITION OF MOVEMENT OF
STRONG POLAR FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION. AS ANTICIPATED...TEMP
DROPS UP TO 20F IN ONE HOUR BEHIND FROPA AS READINGS CRASH QUICKLY
INTO THE 40S. THIS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING IN THE SLV WHERE FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. MUCH MILDER IN THE 60S FROM THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL ON
TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO
THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING (SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CURRENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH VT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG THE FRONT EXPECT RAPID WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHWEST AND WIND GUSTS 25-30KTS. MOD TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE FRONT LEAVES THE
AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT KMSS NOW AND
AND REACHING KMPV BY 00Z.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT THEN IFR TO MVFR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. SNOW TAPERS OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY SOME VCSH NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCT CONDITIONS 16-18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. BASIN AVG QPF RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT EXPECTED. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS
RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO YESTERDAYS VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500
FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...THE
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND
SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY
LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 151815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
215 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 208 PM EDT TUESDAY...DROPPED WIND ADVSY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS OF THE NOONTIME HOUR AS STEADIER RAINFALL HAS ARRIVED IN
THE VALLEY AND INHIBITED MIXING MORE THOROUGHLY. KCXX VWP VALUES
STILL RUNNING FROM 50-60KTS IN THE 2-3 KFT LAYER...BUT THIS SHOULD
REMAIN ALOFT. WATCHING COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS HOUR...AND REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY THE 1-2 0`CLOCK HOUR...AND THEN
EASTWARD INTO REMAINDER OF VT THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO WATCHING INTERESTING CONVECTIVE FINELINE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WHICH IS PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT
ENTERS OUR WESTERN VT COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA AND MONITOR FUTURE
STATEMENTS FROM THE NWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUITE BUSY HERE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS LARGER STREAMS
AND RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. IN SHORT...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS NEEDED AS
OF MID-MORNING...MAINLY TO MATCH CURRENT POSITION OF MOVEMENT OF
STRONG POLAR FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION. AS ANTICIPATED...TEMP
DROPS UP TO 20F IN ONE HOUR BEHIND FROPA AS READINGS CRASH QUICKLY
INTO THE 40S. THIS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING IN THE SLV WHERE FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. MUCH MILDER IN THE 60S FROM THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL ON
TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO
THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING (SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CURRENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH VT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG THE FRONT EXPECT RAPID WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHWEST AND WIND GUSTS 25-30KTS. MOD TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE FRONT LEAVES THE
AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT KMSS NOW AND
AND REACHING KMPV BY 00Z.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT THEN IFR TO MVFR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. SNOW TAPERS OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY SOME VCSH NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCT CONDITIONS 16-18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. BASIN AVG QPF RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT EXPECTED. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS
RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO YESTERDAYS VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500
FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...THE
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND
SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY
LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 151627
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1227 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EDT TUESDAY...DROPPED WIND ADVSY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS OF THE NOONTIME HOUR AS STEADIER RAINFALL HAS ARRIVED IN
THE VALLEY AND INHIBITED MIXING MORE THOROUGHLY. KCXX VWP VALUES
STILL RUNNING FROM 50-60KTS IN THE 2-3 KFT LAYER...BUT THIS SHOULD
REMAIN ALOFT. WATCHING COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS HOUR...AND REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY THE 1-2 0`CLOCK HOUR...AND THEN
EASTWARD INTO REMAINDER OF VT THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO WATCHING INTERESTING CONVECTIVE FINELINE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WHICH IS PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT
ENTERS OUR WESTERN VT COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA AND MONITOR FUTURE
STATEMENTS FROM THE NWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUITE BUSY HERE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS LARGER STREAMS
AND RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. IN SHORT...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS NEEDED AS
OF MID-MORNING...MAINLY TO MATCH CURRENT POSITION OF MOVEMENT OF
STRONG POLAR FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION. AS ANTICIPATED...TEMP
DROPS UP TO 20F IN ONE HOUR BEHIND FROPA AS READINGS CRASH QUICKLY
INTO THE 40S. THIS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING IN THE SLV WHERE FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. MUCH MILDER IN THE 60S FROM THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL ON
TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO
THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING (SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CREATE IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. BASIN AVG QPF RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT EXPECTED. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS
RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO YESTERDAYS VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500
FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...THE
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND
SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY
LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 151414
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUITE BUSY HERE THIS MORNING WITH
NUMEROUS LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. IN
SHORT...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS NEEDED AS OF MID-MORNING...MAINLY TO
MATCH CURRENT POSITION OF MOVEMENT OF STRONG POLAR FRONT PUSHING
INTO OUR REGION. AS ANTICIPATED...TEMP DROPS UP TO 20F IN ONE HOUR
BEHIND FROPA AS READINGS CRASH QUICKLY INTO THE 40S. THIS IS
CURRENTLY HAPPENING IN THE SLV WHERE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED.
MUCH MILDER IN THE 60S FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO
VERMONT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR IN THESE AREAS AS WELL BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
REGION TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION. AMOUNTS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH IN NRN NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES
IN VT WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING (SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CREATE IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. BASIN AVG QPF RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT EXPECTED. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS
RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO YESTERDAYS VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500
FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...THE
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND
SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY
LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 151149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
HEADED OUR WAY. THIS WILL ONLY IMPACT THE FLOOD SITUATION EVEN
FURTHER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. VERY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS
WITH THE FRONT...NOT JUST AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT AS WELL. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD INDICATES A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING
AT AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF PRECIPITATION AND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE RISES ON
THE RIVERS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEVERAL ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD AND MORE
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS THE FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. LASTLY...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT COMES THE SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF.
THE WARM GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ON ROADWAYS WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACE. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. LOOKING
AT A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CREATE IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THINKING THAT AN ACTIVE
HYDROLOGIC PERIOD IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE SEEN
OFF AND ON SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT. A FEW RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
GONE INTO FLOOD AND SEVERAL MORE ARE APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. WITH
MORE SNOWMELT AND STEADIER RAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES STILL EXPECTED...MORE FLOODING WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 151053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
HEADED OUR WAY. THIS WILL ONLY IMPACT THE FLOOD SITUATION EVEN
FURTHER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. VERY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS
WITH THE FRONT...NOT JUST AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT AS WELL. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD INDICATES A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING
AT AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF PRECIPITATION AND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE RISES ON
THE RIVERS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEVERAL ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD AND MORE
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS THE FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. LASTLY...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT COMES THE SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF.
THE WARM GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ON ROADWAYS WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACE. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. LOOKING
AT A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT PEAKING AT 30-40
KTS BETWEEN 12-16Z. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE...MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR DIRECTION AND SPEED. EXPECT
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...SLK
MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF
SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALL TAF SITES WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. PRECIP
SHOULD BE ENDING TOWARDS END OF 06Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THINKING THAT AN ACTIVE
HYDROLOGIC PERIOD IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE SEEN
OFF AND ON SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT. A FEW RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
GONE INTO FLOOD AND SEVERAL MORE ARE APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. WITH
MORE SNOWMELT AND STEADIER RAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES STILL EXPECTED...MORE FLOODING WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 150835
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
435 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC. VERY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS WITH THE FRONT...NOT
JUST AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT AS WELL. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INDICATES A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT AN INCH TO INCH
AND A HALF OF PRECIPITATION AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE RISES ON THE RIVERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SEVERAL ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD AND MORE ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FOR
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THUS
THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. LASTLY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT COMES THE SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF. THE WARM
GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ON ROADWAYS WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACE. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. LOOKING AT A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT PEAKING AT 30-40
KTS BETWEEN 12-16Z. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE...MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR DIRECTION AND SPEED. EXPECT
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...SLK
MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF
SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALL TAF SITES WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. PRECIP
SHOULD BE ENDING TOWARDS END OF 06Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THINKING THAT AN ACTIVE
HYDROLOGIC PERIOD IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE SEEN
OFF AND ON SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT. A FEW RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
GONE INTO FLOOD AND SEVERAL MORE ARE APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. WITH
MORE SNOWMELT AND STEADIER RAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES STILL EXPECTED...MORE FLOODING WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 150617
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED...ENDING AS WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO
PROMOTE SNOWMELT AND WE ARE SEEING RIVERS RISING EARLY THIS
MORNING...SOME OF WHICH HAVE GONE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST BASED ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANA-FRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH
SCT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY
AREAS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST
AND PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL
BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTERNOON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT
LEVEL. QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER
TIME. HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER 40S SOUTH. THEN CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GENTLE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S THEN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS RISE TO
0 TO +3C.

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
850 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C GIVING US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT PEAKING AT 30-40
KTS BETWEEN 12-16Z. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE...MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR DIRECTION AND SPEED. EXPECT
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...SLK
MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF
SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALL TAF SITES WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. PRECIP
SHOULD BE ENDING TOWARDS END OF 06Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS
OF MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE
RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT
EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON
MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND
THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT
FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR
CERTAINTY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 150525
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ENDING AS
WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO PROMOTE
SNOWMELT AND WE ARE SEEING RIVERS RISING EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME
OF WHICH HAVE GONE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER EAST BASED ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANAFRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH SCT
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST AND
PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTERNOON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3 IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN
MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S
SOUTH. THEN CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GENTLE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
THEN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS RISE TO 0 TO +3C.

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 0C GIVING US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AT MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. EXCEPTION IS BTV
WHERE WIND GUSTS 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY MSS/SLK WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE LESS TONIGHT AT SITES FURTHER EAST.

SHARP COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z
AND BE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED
VALLEYS (PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 30 TO 40 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLWS IN BOTH DIRECTION
AND SPEED. ALSO...EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...WITH SLK MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z
TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVERNIGHT
AS SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE RUNOFF.
WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG
QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN
SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE
ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND
FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG










000
FXUS61 KBTV 150238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ENDING AS
WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1027 PM EDT MONDAY...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD FROM SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN VERMONT THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THREAT OF THUNDER HAS DIMINISHED.
CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN
A FEW SPOTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD WHERE A FEW SPOTS
(INCLUDING KBTV) HAVE ECLIPSED THE 80F MARK. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS
IS THE FIRST 80F OCCURRENCE SINCE OCT 7 OF LAST YEAR. AS WE
PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT...MILD/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
P-GRAD REMAINS TIGHT AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING...YET VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLD
THUNDER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN
VT LATER TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. SOME MINOR CONCERN OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SLV SHOULD ANY OF THE
ACTIVITY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS WE`RE
IN A CLASSIC LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HOLDING VERY MILD IN MOST SPOTS UNDER THE BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAINLY 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE SLV WHERE STRONG FRONTAL
ZONE WILL ENCROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. HAVE LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS AREA GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANAFRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH SCT
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST AND
PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTEROON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3 IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN
MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S
SOUTH. THEN CLR/PTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSUR OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GENTLE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
THEN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS RISE TO 0 TO +3C.

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 0C GIVING US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AT MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. EXCEPTION IS BTV
WHERE WIND GUSTS 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY MSS/SLK WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE LESS TONIGHT AT SITES FURTHER EAST.

SHARP COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z
AND BE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED
VALLEYS (PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 30 TO 40 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLWS IN BOTH DIRECTION
AND SPEED. ALSO...EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...WITH SLK MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z
TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVERNIGHT
AS SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE RUNOFF.
WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG
QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN
SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE
ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND
FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 150054
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
854 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ENDING AS
WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT MONDAY...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING...A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. STILL
EXPECTING THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT....SO HAVE NOT CHANGED POPS FOR MOST
OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR
THE EVENING...BUT NOTHING IN WAY OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ABATING
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN
A FEW SPOTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD WHERE A FEW SPOTS
(INCLUDING KBTV) HAVE ECLIPSED THE 80F MARK. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS
IS THE FIRST 80F OCCURRENCE SINCE OCT 7 OF LAST YEAR. AS WE
PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT...MILD/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
P-GRAD REMAINS TIGHT AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING...YET VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLD
THUNDER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN
VT LATER TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. SOME MINOR CONCERN OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SLV SHOULD ANY OF THE
ACTIVITY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS WE`RE
IN A CLASSIC LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HOLDING VERY MILD IN MOST SPOTS UNDER THE BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAINLY 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE SLV WHERE STRONG FRONTAL
ZONE WILL ENCROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. HAVE LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS AREA GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANAFRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH SCT
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST AND
PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTEROON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3 IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN
MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S
SOUTH. THEN CLR/PTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSUR OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GENTLE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
THEN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS RISE TO 0 TO +3C.

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 0C GIVING US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AT MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. EXCEPTION IS BTV
WHERE WIND GUSTS 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY MSS/SLK WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE LESS TONIGHT AT SITES FURTHER EAST.

SHARP COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z
AND BE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED
VALLEYS (PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 30 TO 40 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLWS IN BOTH DIRECTION
AND SPEED. ALSO...EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...WITH SLK MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z
TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVERNIGHT
AS SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE RUNOFF.
WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG
QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN
SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE
ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND
FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 141902
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ENDING AS
WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...VERY WARM DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD WHERE A FEW SPOTS (INCLUDING KBTV) HAVE ECLIPSED THE 80F
MARK. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS IS THE FIRST 80F OCCURRANCE SINCE OCT
7 OF LAST YEAR. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT...MILD/BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS P-GRAD REMAINS TIGHT AHEAD OF SLOWLY
ADVANCING...YET VERY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY
AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN VT LATER TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. SOME
MINOR CONCERN OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SLV SHOULD ANY OF THE ACTIVITY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. NOT LOOKING
AT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN
EYE ON THINGS AS WE`RE IN A CLASSIC LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HOLDING VERY MILD IN
MOST SPOTS UNDER THE BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAINLY 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD
BE SLV WHERE STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENCROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. HAVE LOWS
IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS
AREA GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANAFRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH SCT
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST AND
PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTEROON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3 IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN
MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S
SOUTH. THEN CLR/PTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSUR OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GENTLE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
THEN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS RISE TO 0 TO +3C.

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 0C GIVING US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 35 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK. CRNT ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR
CWA...WHICH IS PRODUCING SOUTH WIND GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THESE WINDS WL CONT THIS AFTN AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TWD SUNSET AS MIXING DECREASES...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEY
SITES OF MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACRS
WESTERN NY THIS AFTN...WHICH WL IMPACT MSS BTWN 21-01Z AND SLK
BTWN 22Z-02Z THIS EVENING WITH VIS BTWN 4-6SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST BTWN 2500 AND 4000 FEET...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. THINKING PRECIP
WL STAY OVER NORTHERN NY AND NOT IMPACT CPV AND POINTS EAST. GIVEN
GOOD BL MIXING ALSO NOT EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

ON TUE A SHARP SFC COLD FRNT WL APPROACH THE SLV BY 12Z AND BE
INTO THE CPV BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS
(PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 40 TO 45 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC COLD FRNT WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLVL WS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.
ALSO...THINKING MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA PRECIP...WITH SLK MIXING WITH RAIN/SNOW BY 18Z TUES.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WL BE ACRS THE CPV AROUND 18Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
EXPECTED BTWN 18Z-21Z TUESDAY AT BTV/MPV/RUT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP WITH A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 18Z (SLK)-00Z (MPV) WITH ADDITIONAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON TUES EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFT 06Z WEDS WITH VFR RETURNING BY WEDS SFC HIGH
PRES WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WEDS INTO THURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE RUNOFF.
WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG
QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN
SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE
ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND
FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 141822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
222 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ENDING AS
WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...VERY WARM DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD WHERE A FEW SPOTS (INCLUDING KBTV) HAVE ECLIPSED THE 80F
MARK. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS IS THE FIRST 80F OCCURRANCE SINCE OCT
7 OF LAST YEAR. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT...MILD/BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS P-GRAD REMAINS TIGHT AHEAD OF SLOWLY
ADVANCING...YET VERY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY
AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN VT LATER TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. SOME
MINOR CONCERN OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SLV SHOULD ANY OF THE ACTIVITY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. NOT LOOKING
AT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN
EYE ON THINGS AS WE`RE IN A CLASSIC LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HOLDING VERY MILD IN
MOST SPOTS UNDER THE BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAINLY 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD
BE SLV WHERE STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENCROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. HAVE LOWS
IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS
AREA GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANAFRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH SCT
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST AND
PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTEROON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3 IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN
MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S
SOUTH. THEN CLR/PTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSUR OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 35 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK. CRNT ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR
CWA...WHICH IS PRODUCING SOUTH WIND GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THESE WINDS WL CONT THIS AFTN AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TWD SUNSET AS MIXING DECREASES...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEY
SITES OF MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACRS
WESTERN NY THIS AFTN...WHICH WL IMPACT MSS BTWN 21-01Z AND SLK
BTWN 22Z-02Z THIS EVENING WITH VIS BTWN 4-6SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST BTWN 2500 AND 4000 FEET...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. THINKING PRECIP
WL STAY OVER NORTHERN NY AND NOT IMPACT CPV AND POINTS EAST. GIVEN
GOOD BL MIXING ALSO NOT EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

ON TUE A SHARP SFC COLD FRNT WL APPROACH THE SLV BY 12Z AND BE
INTO THE CPV BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS
(PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 40 TO 45 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC COLD FRNT WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLVL WS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.
ALSO...THINKING MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA PRECIP...WITH SLK MIXING WITH RAIN/SNOW BY 18Z TUES.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WL BE ACRS THE CPV AROUND 18Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
EXPECTED BTWN 18Z-21Z TUESDAY AT BTV/MPV/RUT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP WITH A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 18Z (SLK)-00Z (MPV) WITH ADDITIONAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON TUES EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFT 06Z WEDS WITH VFR RETURNING BY WEDS SFC HIGH
PRES WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WEDS INTO THURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE RUNOFF.
WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG
QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN
SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE
ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND
FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR CERTAINTY.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 141731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1229 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
OFFERING BREEZY/MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGHS TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST...AND 75 TO 80 FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG LK CHAMPLAIN). WATCHING
DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OFF TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH PBL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...HIGH ENOUGH
SHEAR THAT IF ANY STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP THEY`D HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR ISOLD STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS. SAW A BRIEF SHOWER PASS
TORONTO IN THE PAST HOUR WITH A GUST TO 50KT. ENJOY YOUR
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN CORE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA OVERNGT DUE TO FRONTS SLOW
PROGRESSION WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIP THRU 12Z...KEEPING
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. WITH STRONG RIDGE
OFFSHORE...GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CWA TO SEE STEADY BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40-45MPH THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT. QPF THRU 12Z TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.50"...WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER N NY. FOR
OVERNGT LOWS...MODEST DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO CLDS/WAA
REMAINING INTACT W/ TEMPS IN THE 50S.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED THRU THE DAY AS FRONT TRUDGES
THRU THE REGION...WITH A SLOW TAPERING GOING INTO THE TUES NGT
TIME FRAME. AREAS IN HIR TRRN IN N NY WILL SEE TRANSITION TO -SW
AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS DOWN ON SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW. FRONT MVS OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12Z
WED. SOME LINGERING PRECIP STILL FOR SOME OF WED MORNING HRS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA TO BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS.
OVERALL FOR PRECIP STEADY RAINS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN TUES/TUES NGT. WITH SNOWFALL
BEGINNING FROM WEST TO EAST ON CAA IN HIR TRRN...1-2" COULD
ACCUMULATE...WITH OTHER LOCALES SEEING D-1" POTENTIAL. WITH
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TUESDAY..DOWN TO THE 30S/40S
WEDNESDAY DUE TO AIR REGIME CHANGE BEHIND FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S/30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 35 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK. CRNT ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR
CWA...WHICH IS PRODUCING SOUTH WIND GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THESE WINDS WL CONT THIS AFTN AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TWD SUNSET AS MIXING DECREASES...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEY
SITES OF MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACRS
WESTERN NY THIS AFTN...WHICH WL IMPACT MSS BTWN 21-01Z AND SLK
BTWN 22Z-02Z THIS EVENING WITH VIS BTWN 4-6SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST BTWN 2500 AND 4000 FEET...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. THINKING PRECIP
WL STAY OVER NORTHERN NY AND NOT IMPACT CPV AND POINTS EAST. GIVEN
GOOD BL MIXING ALSO NOT EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

ON TUE A SHARP SFC COLD FRNT WL APPROACH THE SLV BY 12Z AND BE
INTO THE CPV BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS
(PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 40 TO 45 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC COLD FRNT WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLVL WS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.
ALSO...THINKING MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA PRECIP...WITH SLK MIXING WITH RAIN/SNOW BY 18Z TUES.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WL BE ACRS THE CPV AROUND 18Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
EXPECTED BTWN 18Z-21Z TUESDAY AT BTV/MPV/RUT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP WITH A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 18Z (SLK)-00Z (MPV) WITH ADDITIONAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON TUES EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFT 06Z WEDS WITH VFR RETURNING BY WEDS SFC HIGH
PRES WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WEDS INTO THURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE
RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.
WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP
RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR
FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG











000
FXUS61 KBTV 141629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1229 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1229 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
OFFERING BREEZY/MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGHS TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST...AND 75 TO 80 FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG LK CHAMPLAIN). WATCHING
DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OFF TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH PBL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...HIGH ENOUGH
SHEAR THAT IF ANY STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP THEY`D HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR ISOLD STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS. SAW A BRIEF SHOWER PASS
TORONTO IN THE PAST HOUR WITH A GUST TO 50KT. ENJOY YOUR
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN CORE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA OVERNGT DUE TO FRONTS SLOW
PROGRESSION WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIP THRU 12Z...KEEPING
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. WITH STRONG RIDGE
OFFSHORE...GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CWA TO SEE STEADY BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40-45MPH THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT. QPF THRU 12Z TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.50"...WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER N NY. FOR
OVERNGT LOWS...MODEST DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO CLDS/WAA
REMAINING INTACT W/ TEMPS IN THE 50S.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED THRU THE DAY AS FRONT TRUDGES
THRU THE REGION...WITH A SLOW TAPERING GOING INTO THE TUES NGT
TIME FRAME. AREAS IN HIR TRRN IN N NY WILL SEE TRANSITION TO -SW
AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS DOWN ON SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW. FRONT MVS OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12Z
WED. SOME LINGERING PRECIP STILL FOR SOME OF WED MORNING HRS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA TO BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS.
OVERALL FOR PRECIP STEADY RAINS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN TUES/TUES NGT. WITH SNOWFALL
BEGINNING FROM WEST TO EAST ON CAA IN HIR TRRN...1-2" COULD
ACCUMULATE...WITH OTHER LOCALES SEEING D-1" POTENTIAL. WITH
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TUESDAY..DOWN TO THE 30S/40S
WEDNESDAY DUE TO AIR REGIME CHANGE BEHIND FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S/30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND KMPV WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
14Z. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO EXIST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...BUT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. MORE STEADIER RAIN
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY ACRS OUR TAF
SITES. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP.
CANNOT RULE OUT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION SHOWERS WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW SHOWERS BY 21Z AT MSS/SLK AND BY 00Z WEDS AT PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT
WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUES EVENING. SFC HIGH
PRES WITH CLRING EXPECTED ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE
RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.
WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP
RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR
FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 141436
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1036 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO LATE MORNING. GUSTY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE GREENS THIS MORNING WITH KBTV RECENTLY GUSTING
TO 39 KTS IN THE PAST HOUR. MODEL WIND FIELDS SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...AS BEST DEPICTION OF CURRENT SITUATION IS COMING
FROM THE RAW HI-RES DATA...BUT WHICH IS COMPROMISED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BY MODELLED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS NY. SO WILL LEAVE
CURRENT GRIDS AS IS SHOWING GUSTS INTO THE 25-35 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND LOCALLY HIGHER INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK SHOWING
NEARLY ALL AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S TODAY WITH A FEW SPOTS
NEARING THE 80F MARK IN THE WARMEST LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. IF WE HIT 80F IN BURLINGTON TODAY...THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST OCCURRENCE SINCE OCT 7TH OF LAST YEAR. IN TERNS OF PCPN
CHANCES...ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR THE DAY. FURTHER WEST LEAD/FRONT-END SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING
NORTH FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY STATES LIKELY TO SPARK SCT SHOWRS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS
WEST INTO THE SLV BY LATE DAY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
INCOMING HI-RES DATA SUGGESTS THIS MAY SET UP A TAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE DACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WILL DISCOUNT FOR
NOW UNTIL WE CAN SEE HOW THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN CORE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA OVERNGT DUE TO FRONTS SLOW
PROGRESSION WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIP THRU 12Z...KEEPING
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. WITH STRONG RIDGE
OFFSHORE...GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CWA TO SEE STEADY BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40-45MPH THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT. QPF THRU 12Z TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.50"...WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER N NY. FOR
OVERNGT LOWS...MODEST DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO CLDS/WAA
REMAINING INTACT W/ TEMPS IN THE 50S.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED THRU THE DAY AS FRONT TRUDGES
THRU THE REGION...WITH A SLOW TAPERING GOING INTO THE TUES NGT
TIME FRAME. AREAS IN HIR TRRN IN N NY WILL SEE TRANSITION TO -SW
AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS DOWN ON SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW. FRONT MVS OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12Z
WED. SOME LINGERING PRECIP STILL FOR SOME OF WED MORNING HRS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA TO BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS.
OVERALL FOR PRECIP STEADY RAINS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN TUES/TUES NGT. WITH SNOWFALL
BEGINNING FROM WEST TO EAST ON CAA IN HIR TRRN...1-2" COULD
ACCUMULATE...WITH OTHER LOCALES SEEING D-1" POTENTIAL. WITH
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TUESDAY..DOWN TO THE 30S/40S
WEDNESDAY DUE TO AIR REGIME CHANGE BEHIND FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S/30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND KMPV WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
14Z. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO EXIST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...BUT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. MORE STEADIER RAIN
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY ACRS OUR TAF
SITES. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP.
CANNOT RULE OUT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION SHOWERS WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW SHOWERS BY 21Z AT MSS/SLK AND BY 00Z WEDS AT PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT
WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUES EVENING. SFC HIGH
PRES WITH CLRING EXPECTED ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE
RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.
WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP
RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR
FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 141118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR CLRING SECTION
WORKING OVER N NY...AND TO ADJUST TEMPS FROM LATEST OBS. BTV ASOS
HAS OBSERVED A 16F TEMP SWING TO BRING UP TO 64F AS OF LATEST
OBSERVATION DU TO WARM FRONT NOSING UP CVLY. AREAS IN E VT/DACKS STILL
SEEING 30S AND SHOULD BREAK OUT WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHES OVER
SPINE OF GREEN MTN. BREAKS SHOWING UP IN AREAL CLD COVER AS
OVERNGT SHIELD PUSHING THRU E VT ATTM AND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
CLRING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT HAS FINALLY LIFTED NORTH INTO
QUEBEC THIS MORNING...PUTTING THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE
MIDWEST/SOUTHEAST REGIONS. DEBRIS CLDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALREADY ARE STREAMING THRU THE REGION. MDLS STILL ON TRACK WITH
FROPA BEGINNING BY 00Z TNGT IN THE ST LAW VALLEY. BFR THIS
OCCURS...ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE CWA ON STRONG WAA/SSW FLOW WILL
BRING CWA INTO THE 70S. WITH THE EXPECTED DEBRIS CLDS THIS MORNING
AND THE LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL CLDS INTO EASTERN GREAT LKS...HAVE
CUT BACK BY A FEW DEGREES FOR FORECASTED HIGHS FROM MDL GUIDANCE.
SOME BREAKS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT WILL ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY
TO POSSIBLY CREATE SOME RW/ISO TRW BFR 00Z. MAIN CORE OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA OVERNGT DUE TO
FRONTS SLOW PROGRESSION WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIP THRU
12Z...KEEPING CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. WITH STRONG
RIDGE OFFSHORE...GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CWA TO SEE STEADY BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40-45MPH THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT. QPF THRU 12Z TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.50"...WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER N NY. FOR
OVERNGT LOWS...MODEST DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO CLDS/WAA
REMAINING INTACT W/ TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING INTO TUESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED THRU
THE DAY AS FRONT TRUDGES THRU THE REGION...WITH A SLOW TAPERING
GOING INTO THE TUES NGT TIME FRAME. AREAS IN HIR TRRN IN N NY WILL
SEE TRANSITION TO -SW AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS DOWN ON SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW. FRONT MVS OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH BULK
OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12Z WED. SOME LINGERING PRECIP STILL FOR SOME
OF WED MORNING HRS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA TO
BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS. OVERALL FOR PRECIP STEADY RAINS WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN TUES/TUES NGT.
WITH SNOWFALL BEGINNING FROM WEST TO EAST ON CAA IN HIR
TRRN...1-2" COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH OTHER LOCALES SEEING D-1"
POTENTIAL. WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED
FLOOD WATCH. OVERALL HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TUESDAY..DOWN TO
THE 30S/40S WEDNESDAY DUE TO AIR REGIME CHANGE BEHIND FRONT. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S/30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND KMPV WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
14Z. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO EXIST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...BUT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. MORE STEADIER RAIN
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY ACRS OUR TAF
SITES. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP.
CANNOT RULE OUT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION SHOWERS WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW SHOWERS BY 21Z AT MSS/SLK AND BY 00Z WEDS AT PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT
WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUES EVENING. SFC HIGH
PRES WITH CLRING EXPECTED ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE
RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.
WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP
RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR
FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 141109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR CLRING SECTION
WORKING OVER N NY...AND TO ADJUST TEMPS FROM LATEST OBS. BTV ASOS
HAS OBSERVED A 16F TEMP SWING TO BRING UP TO 64F AS OF LATEST
OBSERVATION DU TO WARM FRONT NOSING UP CVLY. AREAS IN E VT/DACKS STILL
SEEING 30S AND SHOULD BREAK OUT WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHES OVER
SPINE OF GREEN MTN. BREAKS SHOWING UP IN AREAL CLD COVER AS
OVERNGT SHIELD PUSHING THRU E VT ATTM AND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
CLRING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT HAS FINALLY LIFTED NORTH INTO
QUEBEC THIS MORNING...PUTTING THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE
MIDWEST/SOUTHEAST REGIONS. DEBRIS CLDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALREADY ARE STREAMING THRU THE REGION. MDLS STILL ON TRACK WITH
FROPA BEGINNING BY 00Z TNGT IN THE ST LAW VALLEY. BFR THIS
OCCURS...ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE CWA ON STRONG WAA/SSW FLOW WILL
BRING CWA INTO THE 70S. WITH THE EXPECTED DEBRIS CLDS THIS MORNING
AND THE LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL CLDS INTO EASTERN GREAT LKS...HAVE
CUT BACK BY A FEW DEGREES FOR FORECASTED HIGHS FROM MDL GUIDANCE.
SOME BREAKS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT WILL ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY
TO POSSIBLY CREATE SOME RW/ISO TRW BFR 00Z. MAIN CORE OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA OVERNGT DUE TO
FRONTS SLOW PROGRESSION WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIP THRU
12Z...KEEPING CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. WITH STRONG
RIDGE OFFSHORE...GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CWA TO SEE STEADY BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40-45MPH THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT. QPF THRU 12Z TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.50"...WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER N NY. FOR
OVERNGT LOWS...MODEST DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO CLDS/WAA
REMAINING INTACT W/ TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING INTO TUESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED THRU
THE DAY AS FRONT TRUDGES THRU THE REGION...WITH A SLOW TAPERING
GOING INTO THE TUES NGT TIME FRAME. AREAS IN HIR TRRN IN N NY WILL
SEE TRANSITION TO -SW AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS DOWN ON SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW. FRONT MVS OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH BULK
OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12Z WED. SOME LINGERING PRECIP STILL FOR SOME
OF WED MORNING HRS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA TO
BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS. OVERALL FOR PRECIP STEADY RAINS WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN TUES/TUES NGT.
WITH SNOWFALL BEGINNING FROM WEST TO EAST ON CAA IN HIR
TRRN...1-2" COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH OTHER LOCALES SEEING D-1"
POTENTIAL. WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED
FLOOD WATCH. OVERALL HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TUESDAY..DOWN TO
THE 30S/40S WEDNESDAY DUE TO AIR REGIME CHANGE BEHIND FRONT. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S/30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LAST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE EXITING NORTHERN VERMONT BY 08Z. THE MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF JUST A BIT AFTER 00Z...BUT REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 03Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY ACRS OUR TAF
SITES. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP.
CANNOT RULE OUT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION SHOWERS WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY 21Z AT MSS/SLK AND BY 00Z WEDS AT PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT WITH
A PERIOD OF IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUES EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES
WITH CLRING EXPECTED ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE
RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.
WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP
RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR
FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 140825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
425 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT HAS FINALLY LIFTED NORTH INTO
QUEBEC THIS MORNING...PUTTING THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE
MIDWEST/SOUTHEAST REGIONS. DEBRIS CLDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALREADY ARE STREAMING THRU THE REGION. MDLS STILL ON TRACK WITH
FROPA BEGINNING BY 00Z TNGT IN THE ST LAW VALLEY. BFR THIS
OCCURS...ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE CWA ON STRONG WAA/SSW FLOW WILL
BRING CWA INTO THE 70S. WITH THE EXPECTED DEBRIS CLDS THIS MORNING
AND THE LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL CLDS INTO EASTERN GREAT LKS...HAVE
CUT BACK BY A FEW DEGREES FOR FORECASTED HIGHS FROM MDL GUIDANCE.
SOME BREAKS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT WILL ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY
TO POSSIBLY CREATE SOME RW/ISO TRW BFR 00Z. MAIN CORE OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA OVERNGT DUE TO
FRONTS SLOW PROGRESSION WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIP THRU
12Z...KEEPING CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. WITH STRONG
RIDGE OFFSHORE...GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CWA TO SEE STEADY BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40-45MPH THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT. QPF THRU 12Z TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.50"...WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER N NY. FOR
OVERNGT LOWS...MODEST DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO CLDS/WAA
REMAINING INTACT W/ TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING INTO TUESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED THRU
THE DAY AS FRONT TRUDGES THRU THE REGION...WITH A SLOW TAPERING
GOING INTO THE TUES NGT TIME FRAME. AREAS IN HIR TRRN IN N NY WILL
SEE TRANSITION TO -SW AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS DOWN ON SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW. FRONT MVS OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH BULK
OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12Z WED. SOME LINGERING PRECIP STILL FOR SOME
OF WED MORNING HRS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA TO
BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS. OVERALL FOR PRECIP STEADY RAINS WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN TUES/TUES NGT.
WITH SNOWFALL BEGINNING FROM WEST TO EAST ON CAA IN HIR
TRRN...1-2" COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH OTHER LOCALES SEEING D-1"
POTENTIAL. WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED
FLOOD WATCH. OVERALL HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TUESDAY..DOWN TO
THE 30S/40S WEDNESDAY DUE TO AIR REGIME CHANGE BEHIND FRONT. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S/30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LAST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE EXITING NORTHERN VERMONT BY 08Z. THE MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF JUST A BIT AFTER 00Z...BUT REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 03Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY ACRS OUR TAF
SITES. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP.
CANNOT RULE OUT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION SHOWERS WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY 21Z AT MSS/SLK AND BY 00Z WEDS AT PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT WITH
A PERIOD OF IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUES EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES
WITH CLRING EXPECTED ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE
RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.
WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP
RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR
FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG











000
FXUS61 KBTV 140752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 107 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE ISSUED TO CONTINUE MENTION OF
SCATTERED RW/TRW FOR MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...WITH ACTIVITY STILL MVG NE INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDEXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT...SO HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS MUCH LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECTING SOME MINOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE AUSABLE RIVER AS ONE GAGE JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THIS
TIME. THIS FLOODING IS DUE TO CONTINUED SNOW MELT OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 PM EDT SUNDAY...BY TOMORROW THE FORECAST AREA IS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED INTO MILD/WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS WARM FRONT WILL
HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES.
TYPICAL WITH EARLY SEASON BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING...THE H5 FLOW IS
SOMEWHAT "DIRTY" WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST
SOME OF THIS ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW/SCT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/WRN DACK COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SOLID CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER EAST DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES VERY MILD TO
WARM...AND CONSIDERING BACK-TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS AT 500-1000M
SUGGESTS SOURCE AIR WILL COME FROM THE GA/SC AREA TODAY...HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOLID 70S TO
PERHAPS NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S SO IT
APPEARS THEY`LL BE JUST OUT OF REACH. IT WILL ALSO TREND QUITE
BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DEEPENING PBL MIXING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN MOST
SPOTS LOOKS ON TRACK. COULD SEE GUSTS A TAD HIGHER ABOVE 40 MPH IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND IF
FUTURE MODEL DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS SOME OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.

THEN CONTINUED BREEZY AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED SOUTH
FLOW. LOWS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (BTV FOR EXAMPLE) LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW THE 60F
MARK. AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING EAST
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING STEADILY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER EAST
INTO VERMONT LATE...BUT AT THIS POINT I FEEL MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT...ESP EASTERN VT.

STRONG COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED. INCREDIBLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT E-W ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE AGAIN LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD RAW BTV4 T
PROGS...SUGGESTING EARLY HIGHS IN THE 60S...CRASHING SHARPLY BY DAYS
END INTO THE 30S WEST AND 40S EAST. INDEED...TEMPS MAY FALL AS MUCH
AS 15 DEG IN THE FIRST HOUR BEHIND FROPA IN ANY GIVEN AREA. AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN A WET SNOW/SHSN BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN
NY...AND EARLY EVENING INTO VT BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS FRONT CLEARS EAST. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE I`VE SUGGESTED 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET...AND LOCALLY TO NEAR 5 INCHES AT
SUMMIT LEVEL. LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY FLOORS...BUT EVEN
HERE A QUICK/WET DUSTING-INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. QUITE A CHANGE FROM
MONDAY`S WARM TEMPERATURES INDEED!

BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS
WELL EAST AND DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. AS SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
TREND QUITE CHILLY...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LAST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE EXITING NORTHERN VERMONT BY 08Z. THE MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF JUST A BIT AFTER 00Z...BUT REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 03Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY ACRS OUR TAF
SITES. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP.
CANNOT RULE OUT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION SHOWERS WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY 21Z AT MSS/SLK AND BY 00Z WEDS AT PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT WITH
A PERIOD OF IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUES EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES
WITH CLRING EXPECTED ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE
RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.
WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP
RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR
FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...WGH/JN
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 140538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED STORM. SHARPLY COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY
NIGHT. A MAINLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 107 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE ISSUED TO CONTINUE MENTION OF
SCATTERED RW/TRW FOR MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...WITH ACTIVITY STILL MVG NE INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDEXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT...SO HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS MUCH LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECTING SOME MINOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE AUSABLE RIVER AS ONE GAGE JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THIS
TIME. THIS FLOODING IS DUE TO CONTINUED SNOW MELT OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 424 PM EDT SUNDAY...BY TOMORROW THE FORECAST AREA IS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED INTO MILD/WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS WARM FRONT WILL
HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES.
TYPICAL WITH EARLY SEASON BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING...THE H5 FLOW IS
SOMEWHAT "DIRTY" WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST
SOME OF THIS ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW/SCT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/WRN DACK COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SOLID CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER EAST DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES VERY MILD TO
WARM...AND CONSIDERING BACK-TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS AT 500-1000M
SUGGESTS SOURCE AIR WILL COME FROM THE GA/SC AREA TODAY...HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOLID 70S TO
PERHAPS NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S SO IT
APPEARS THEY`LL BE JUST OUT OF REACH. IT WILL ALSO TREND QUITE
BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DEEPENING PBL MIXING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN MOST
SPOTS LOOKS ON TRACK. COULD SEE GUSTS A TAD HIGHER ABOVE 40 MPH IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND IF
FUTURE MODEL DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS SOME OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.

THEN CONTINUED BREEZY AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED SOUTH
FLOW. LOWS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (BTV FOR EXAMPLE) LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW THE 60F
MARK. AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING EAST
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING STEADILY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER EAST
INTO VERMONT LATE...BUT AT THIS POINT I FEEL MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT...ESP EASTERN VT.

STRONG COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED. INCREDIBLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT E-W ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE AGAIN LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD RAW BTV4 T
PROGS...SUGGESTING EARLY HIGHS IN THE 60S...CRASHING SHARPLY BY DAYS
END INTO THE 30S WEST AND 40S EAST. INDEED...TEMPS MAY FALL AS MUCH
AS 15 DEG IN THE FIRST HOUR BEHIND FROPA IN ANY GIVEN AREA. AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN A WET SNOW/SHSN BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN
NY...AND EARLY EVENING INTO VT BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS FRONT CLEARS EAST. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE I`VE SUGGESTED 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET...AND LOCALLY TO NEAR 5 INCHES AT
SUMMIT LEVEL. LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY FLOORS...BUT EVEN
HERE A QUICK/WET DUSTING-INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. QUITE A CHANGE FROM
MONDAY`S WARM TEMPERATURES INDEED!

BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS
WELL EAST AND DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. AS SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
TREND QUITE CHILLY...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...MUCH QUIETER WX ANTICIPATED FOR WEDS
THRU FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. STRONG CAA
ON WEDS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
BTWN -10C AND -12C. THESE TEMPS WITH NORTHWEST FLW WL SUPPORT
HIGHS U20S/L30S MTNS TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S VALLEYS...WITH
READINGS NEAR VSF AT 45F ON WEDS. EXPECTING VERY COLD TEMPS ON
WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF RECORD LOW TEMPS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT MSS. THE RECORD LOW AT MSS IS 23F AND 18F
AT BTV/MPV...THINKING AROUND 20F AT MSS/MPV AND PROBABLY THE MID 20S AT
BTV. SEVERAL OF THE COLDER MTN VALLEYS WL PROBABLY DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER TEENS BY THURS MORNING. SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURS INTO FRIDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND ANTICIPATED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C ON THURS
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S MTNS AND 50S VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER
4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE
SAT AND SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEKEND. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING OF SYSTEM...MAGNITUDE OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF...AND TRACK OF
SFC LOW PRES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT
DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION AND AMOUNT OF
INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP TROF...WHILE ECMWF SHOWS MOST OF THE
ENERGY/MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND MUCH WEAK SFC COLD
FRNT AND NORTHERN STREAM S/W. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS AND FINE TUNE AS EVENT BECOMES CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LAST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE EXITING NORTHERN VERMONT BY 08Z. THE MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF JUST A BIT AFTER 00Z...BUT REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 03Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY ACRS OUR TAF
SITES. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP.
CANNOT RULE OUT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION SHOWERS WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY 21Z AT MSS/SLK AND BY 00Z WEDS AT PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT WITH
A PERIOD OF IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUES EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES
WITH CLRING EXPECTED ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 424 PM EDT SUNDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AS THIS MORNING`S RAINFALL AND CONTINUED
MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY
HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT
SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH/JN
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 140507
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
107 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED STORM. SHARPLY COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY
NIGHT. A MAINLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 107 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE ISSUED TO CONTINUE MENTION OF
SCATTERED RW/TRW FOR MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...WITH ACTIVITY STILL MVG NE INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD ATTM

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDEXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT...SO HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS MUCH LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECTING SOME MINOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE AUSABLE RIVER AS ONE GAGE JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THIS
TIME. THIS FLOODING IS DUE TO CONTINUED SNOW MELT OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 424 PM EDT SUNDAY...BY TOMORROW THE FORECAST AREA IS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED INTO MILD/WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS WARM FRONT WILL
HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES.
TYPICAL WITH EARLY SEASON BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING...THE H5 FLOW IS
SOMEWHAT "DIRTY" WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST
SOME OF THIS ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW/SCT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/WRN DACK COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SOLID CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER EAST DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES VERY MILD TO
WARM...AND CONSIDERING BACK-TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS AT 500-1000M
SUGGESTS SOURCE AIR WILL COME FROM THE GA/SC AREA TODAY...HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOLID 70S TO
PERHAPS NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S SO IT
APPEARS THEY`LL BE JUST OUT OF REACH. IT WILL ALSO TREND QUITE
BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DEEPENING PBL MIXING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN MOST
SPOTS LOOKS ON TRACK. COULD SEE GUSTS A TAD HIGHER ABOVE 40 MPH IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND IF
FUTURE MODEL DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS SOME OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.

THEN CONTINUED BREEZY AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED SOUTH
FLOW. LOWS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (BTV FOR EXAMPLE) LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW THE 60F
MARK. AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING EAST
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING STEADILY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER EAST
INTO VERMONT LATE...BUT AT THIS POINT I FEEL MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT...ESP EASTERN VT.

STRONG COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED. INCREDIBLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT E-W ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE AGAIN LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD RAW BTV4 T
PROGS...SUGGESTING EARLY HIGHS IN THE 60S...CRASHING SHARPLY BY DAYS
END INTO THE 30S WEST AND 40S EAST. INDEED...TEMPS MAY FALL AS MUCH
AS 15 DEG IN THE FIRST HOUR BEHIND FROPA IN ANY GIVEN AREA. AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN A WET SNOW/SHSN BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN
NY...AND EARLY EVENING INTO VT BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS FRONT CLEARS EAST. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE I`VE SUGGESTED 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET...AND LOCALLY TO NEAR 5 INCHES AT
SUMMIT LEVEL. LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY FLOORS...BUT EVEN
HERE A QUICK/WET DUSTING-INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. QUITE A CHANGE FROM
MONDAY`S WARM TEMPERATURES INDEED!

BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS
WELL EAST AND DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. AS SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
TREND QUITE CHILLY...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...MUCH QUIETER WX ANTICIPATED FOR WEDS
THRU FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. STRONG CAA
ON WEDS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
BTWN -10C AND -12C. THESE TEMPS WITH NORTHWEST FLW WL SUPPORT
HIGHS U20S/L30S MTNS TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S VALLEYS...WITH
READINGS NEAR VSF AT 45F ON WEDS. EXPECTING VERY COLD TEMPS ON
WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF RECORD LOW TEMPS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT MSS. THE RECORD LOW AT MSS IS 23F AND 18F
AT BTV/MPV...THINKING AROUND 20F AT MSS/MPV AND PROBABLY THE MID 20S AT
BTV. SEVERAL OF THE COLDER MTN VALLEYS WL PROBABLY DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER TEENS BY THURS MORNING. SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURS INTO FRIDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND ANTICIPATED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C ON THURS
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S MTNS AND 50S VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER
4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE
SAT AND SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEKEND. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING OF SYSTEM...MAGNITUDE OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF...AND TRACK OF
SFC LOW PRES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT
DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION AND AMOUNT OF
INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP TROF...WHILE ECMWF SHOWS MOST OF THE
ENERGY/MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND MUCH WEAK SFC COLD
FRNT AND NORTHERN STREAM S/W. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS AND FINE TUNE AS EVENT BECOMES CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WAVY WARM FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED NORTHEAST-
MOVING SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS OTTAWA VALLEY/WESTERN EDGE
OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO AFFECT MSS THROUGH
05Z. CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER HERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING LOW CEILINGS GIVEN BOTH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS WELL AS EVIDENCE IN
UPSTREAM OBS WHICH SHOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS REMAINING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE TAFS. ONE EXCEPTION IS AT LEAST MVFR
VISIBILITY MIST IN AREAS WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE AND/OR SHOWERS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL MOST LIKELY AT SLK AND ALSO AT
MSS. WINDS TO OTHERWISE REMAIN SOUTH AROUND 10-12 KTS. STILL
CONTENDING WITH AREAS OF LLWS AT MSS GIVEN PERSISTENT NE WINDS
THERE SHIFTING TO SSW 35-40 KTS AT 2KFT PER TYX VAD.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
PARTICULARLY AT MSS. GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 30 KTS THERE. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MSS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH VCSH INDICATED THERE
AFTER 20Z...BUT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR LOWERING CEILINGS DURING THAT
SAME PERIOD OF TIME FOR THE REST OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRNT
APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY ACRS OUR TAF
SITES. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP.
CANNOT RULE OUT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION SHOWERS WITH VIS <3SM. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
21Z AT MSS/SLK AND BY 00Z WEDS AT PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUES EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES WITH CLRING
EXPECTED ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 424 PM EDT SUNDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AS THIS MORNING`S RAINFALL AND CONTINUED
MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY
HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT
SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH/JN
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 140247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED STORM. SHARPLY COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY
NIGHT. A MAINLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDEXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT...SO HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS
MUCH LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECTING SOME MINOR
FLOODING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE AUSABLE RIVER AS ONE GAGE JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. THIS FLOODING IS DUE TO CONTINUED SNOW
MELT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 424 PM EDT SUNDAY...BY TOMORROW THE FORECAST AREA IS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED INTO MILD/WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS WARM FRONT WILL
HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES.
TYPICAL WITH EARLY SEASON BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING...THE H5 FLOW IS
SOMEWHAT "DIRTY" WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST
SOME OF THIS ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW/SCT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/WRN DACK COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SOLID CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER EAST DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES VERY MILD TO
WARM...AND CONSIDERING BACK-TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS AT 500-1000M
SUGGESTS SOURCE AIR WILL COME FROM THE GA/SC AREA TODAY...HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOLID 70S TO
PERHAPS NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S SO IT
APPEARS THEY`LL BE JUST OUT OF REACH. IT WILL ALSO TREND QUITE
BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DEEPENING PBL MIXING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN MOST
SPOTS LOOKS ON TRACK. COULD SEE GUSTS A TAD HIGHER ABOVE 40 MPH IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND IF
FUTURE MODEL DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS SOME OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.

THEN CONTINUED BREEZY AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED SOUTH
FLOW. LOWS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (BTV FOR EXAMPLE) LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW THE 60F
MARK. AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING EAST
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING STEADILY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER EAST
INTO VERMONT LATE...BUT AT THIS POINT I FEEL MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT...ESP EASTERN VT.

STRONG COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED. INCREDIBLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT E-W ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE AGAIN LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD RAW BTV4 T
PROGS...SUGGESTING EARLY HIGHS IN THE 60S...CRASHING SHARPLY BY DAYS
END INTO THE 30S WEST AND 40S EAST. INDEED...TEMPS MAY FALL AS MUCH
AS 15 DEG IN THE FIRST HOUR BEHIND FROPA IN ANY GIVEN AREA. AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN A WET SNOW/SHSN BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN
NY...AND EARLY EVENING INTO VT BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS FRONT CLEARS EAST. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE I`VE SUGGESTED 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET...AND LOCALLY TO NEAR 5 INCHES AT
SUMMIT LEVEL. LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY FLOORS...BUT EVEN
HERE A QUICK/WET DUSTING-INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. QUITE A CHANGE FROM
MONDAY`S WARM TEMPERATURES INDEED!

BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS
WELL EAST AND DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. AS SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
TREND QUITE CHILLY...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...MUCH QUIETER WX ANTICIPATED FOR WEDS
THRU FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. STRONG CAA
ON WEDS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
BTWN -10C AND -12C. THESE TEMPS WITH NORTHWEST FLW WL SUPPORT
HIGHS U20S/L30S MTNS TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S VALLEYS...WITH
READINGS NEAR VSF AT 45F ON WEDS. EXPECTING VERY COLD TEMPS ON
WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF RECORD LOW TEMPS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT MSS. THE RECORD LOW AT MSS IS 23F AND 18F
AT BTV/MPV...THINKING AROUND 20F AT MSS/MPV AND PROBABLY THE MID 20S AT
BTV. SEVERAL OF THE COLDER MTN VALLEYS WL PROBABLY DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER TEENS BY THURS MORNING. SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURS INTO FRIDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND ANTICIPATED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C ON THURS
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S MTNS AND 50S VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER
4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS WL BE
SAT AND SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEKEND. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING OF SYSTEM...MAGNITUDE OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF...AND TRACK OF
SFC LOW PRES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT
DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION AND AMOUNT OF
INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP TROF...WHILE ECMWF SHOWS MOST OF THE
ENERGY/MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND MUCH WEAK SFC COLD
FRNT AND NORTHERN STREAM S/W. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS AND FINE TUNE AS EVENT BECOMES CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WAVY WARM FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED NORTHEAST-
MOVING SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS OTTAWA VALLEY/WESTERN EDGE
OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO AFFECT MSS THROUGH
05Z. CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER HERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING LOW CEILINGS GIVEN BOTH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS WELL AS EVIDENCE IN
UPSTREAM OBS WHICH SHOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS REMAINING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE TAFS. ONE EXCEPTION IS AT LEAST MVFR
VISIBILITY MIST IN AREAS WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE AND/OR SHOWERS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL MOST LIKELY AT SLK AND ALSO AT
MSS. WINDS TO OTHERWISE REMAIN SOUTH AROUND 10-12 KTS. STILL
CONTENDING WITH AREAS OF LLWS AT MSS GIVEN PERSISTENT NE WINDS
THERE SHIFTING TO SSW 35-40 KTS AT 2KFT PER TYX VAD.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
PARTICULARLY AT MSS. GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 30 KTS THERE. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MSS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH VCSH INDICATED THERE
AFTER 20Z...BUT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR LOWERING CEILINGS DURING THAT
SAME PERIOD OF TIME FOR THE REST OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRNT
APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY ACRS OUR TAF
SITES. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP.
CANNOT RULE OUT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION SHOWERS WITH VIS <3SM. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
21Z AT MSS/SLK AND BY 00Z WEDS AT PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUES EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES WITH CLRING
EXPECTED ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 424 PM EDT SUNDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AS THIS MORNING`S RAINFALL AND CONTINUED
MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY
HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT
SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG









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